strong team realtors fluvanna & lake monticello q3 market report

8/14/2019 Strong Team REALTORS Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Q3 Market Report

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Fluvanna & Lake MonticelloReal Estate Market Analysis

Data compiled and presented by:

Information in this report is believed accurate, however, not guaranteed

86 Joshua LanePalmyra, VA 22963

434.589.5800StrongTeamRealtors.com


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We would like to thank you for taking the time to consider our Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate MarketAnalysis. We sincerely hope that you will find the report both informative and valuable. There are a few thingsyou should know that will help you consider the data that we have shared. . .

The source of all of the statistical data in this report is the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORSMultiple Listing Service. All of the information in the the CAAR MLS is believed to be accurate, however,is not guaranteed. All of the data was compiled and analyzed personally by Strong Team REALTORS. Allof the opinions contained herein are those of Strong Team REALTORS, unless otherwise noted.

The presentation of the data in this report is licensed under a Creative Commons Copyright License.

This document may be shared, as long as it is passed along unchanged and in whole, with properattribution to Strong Team REALTORS.

creative commons by attribution no derivatives

We encourage you to share this report with others who you think might find it valuable. If you have anyquestions about any of the information, or would like additional information, or additional copies of thereport, we are happy to help however we can. All you have to do is give us a call at 434-589-5800, orsend an email to [email protected].

Strong Team REALTORS
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://creativecommons.org/http://creativecommons.org/


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Introduction

Welcome to the Strong Team REALTORS Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We know thatcomprehensive, accurate data about the local real estate market is absolutely critical in order for you to

make informed decisions about your real estate needs. We also know, however, that such information isoften far too hard to come by. It is our goal to change that.

This is merely the first of many regular reports we will release that will contain the vital data about thelocal real estate market that you want, need, and deserve. As real estate professionals, we know first-handthat market data leads to increased knowledge and better decision-making. After all, knowledge is power.We want to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary for them to make the best

decisions for them.

Everyone has a feeling about the real estate market, our goal is to provide facts and analysis that will showyou a true picture of the local real estate market.

Scope of this report

The data in this report looks back at the first 9 months of 2008 and compares it to the same time frameduring 2007. Some of the graphs will refer to the entire Charlottesville Area (Albemarle, Charlottesville,Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson), others will show data for only Fluvanna County and/or Lake Monticello. This isdone so that you can compare the local market against itself, and also against the performance of theregion.



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Total Sales By Area

The chart on the following page is a representation of the total number of sales in the Charlottesville Areathrough September 30th. The sales are broken down by individual area, and also as a total.

As you can see, sales in every area are lower, compared to the same time frame in 2007. For the entireCharlottesville Area, sales volume is 23% lower in 2008, compared with 2007. By area, Albemarle has seenthe largest drop-off in sales (-31%), and the City of Charlottesville has seen the smallest change (-7%).Fluvanna, Greene, and Nelson Counties have seen a -27%, -13%, and -14% change, respectively.

There is no doubting the fact that there are simply less homes being sold in the Charlottesville Area in

2008 compared to 2007. This does not mean that homes are not selling. It just means that there is greatercompetition for buyers among homes that are on the market. For buyers, there are more homes fromwhich to choose. Later in the report, we will take a look at inventory and Days on Market statistics, whichwill give a more complete picture of market competition.



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0

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

1,800

2,100

2,400

2,700

3,000

Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna Greene Nelson Total

Total Sales by Area (through Sept. 30)

2007 2008Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS


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Total Sales in Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello

The following chart shows the total sales for Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello. In the previous chart, both wereincluded in the Fluvanna column. Since Lake Monticello is, by far, the largest subdivision in Fluvanna andvery unique compared to the rest of the county, it is worthwhile to examine it individually, whenever

possible.

Lake Monticello has experienced a drop-off of 29% in total sales in 2008 compared to 2007. The decreaseis slightly less among the other homes in Fluvanna, coming in 24% lower. It is interesting to note that LakeMonticello accounted for 64% of Fluvanna Countys sales in 2007, and accounts for 65% of sales in theCounty in 2008.


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90

120

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180

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240

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Fluvanna Co. ONLY Lake Monticello

Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Total Sales (through Sept. 30)



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Charlottesville Area Sales by Month

The following chart breaks down the total area sales on a per-month basis. The chart compares themonthly-by-month totals from 2007 and 2008. This chart is important because it gives a picture of theentire year in such a way that we can see the fluctuations in sales from month-to-month.

It is obvious from the chart that the idea of the Spring Market is no myth. Sales trend upwards fromJanuary through July, and then begin to fall as we head towards the end of the year.

Perhaps the most important piece of information we can take from this chart is the fact that in the monthof September, the monthly sales totals were almost identical in 2008 vs. 2007 (169 vs. 170). Of course, thisis only one month, but if we see this continue, it might indicate that we are seeing a stabilization of the

market overall, as least as far as the number of sales is concerned. We simply wont know for a few moremonths if this is an isolated occurrence, or a real trend. We have included the stats for the last months of2007, in order to give you an idea of what we might be able to expect from sales.


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150

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Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Charlottesville Area Sales by Month


Fl C t S l b M th


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Fluvanna County Sales by Month

The following chart shows the same month-by-month breakdown of the sales total, but the information islimited only to Fluvanna County. While this chart does not show Lake Monticello by itself, sales at the Lakeusually make up between 55%-70% of the total sales in Fluvanna for any given month.

Much like the same chart for the Charlottesville Area, Fluvanna County sales show us that there is, indeeda distinct Spring Market. What is curious about Fluvanna, however, is that 2007 saw a sharp drop fromMay to June, whereas 2008 did not. In fact, June sales of 2008 were actually higher in number than those in2007.

One piece of encouraging information is that the stabilization of sales exhibited in the Charlottesville Areafor the month of September was reflected in Fluvanna County, as well. Fluvanna sales in September of2007 were 21, and they were 19 in 2008. Once again, we will have to closely monitor this statistic to see ifit becomes a trend in the coming months, as it may signal some stabilization of sales. Just as with theCharlottesville Area stats, we have included the stats for the final months of 2007, in order to give you anidea of what might be expected.



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20

30

40

50

60


Fluvanna Sales by Month




Fluvanna Sales by Price Range

The following chart shows the total sales in Fluvanna County, broken down by price range. This chartEXCLUDES homes in Lake Monticello. Those sales are on a separate, following, chart. The chart also

compares the price price range sales in 2007 and 2008.

As you would expect, most of the price ranges saw a drop in sales in 2008 compared to 2007. The pricerange from $180,000-$199,900 has experienced the largest decrease in sales (-60%). Three price rangesexperienced an increase in sales. The largest increase in sales was among homes between $200,000 and$259,900 (+360%).

Overall, it would appear that all of the price ranges appear healthy, with no one price range suffering anabnormal amount, compared to any other.


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0-179,900

180,000-199,900

200,000-259,900

260,000-299,900

300,000-349,000

350,000-399,900

400,000-449,000

450,000-499,900

500,000-800,000

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30

Fluvanna ONLY Sales by Price Range



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Lake Monticello Sales by Price Range

The following chart shows the sales at Lake Monticello, broken down by price range. The numbers referONLY to homes in Lake Monticello. Once again, the ranges are compared for 2007 and 2008.

As you might expect, most of the price ranges have experienced a decrease in sales. The only two rangesthat have experienced an increase in sales were homes under $180,000, and homes between $450,000 and$499,000 (these are waterfront homes, which we will discuss later).

As you can see, the distribution throughout the price ranges at Lake Monticello has remained mostlyunchanged during 2008. The only price range that has suffered a significant decrease in sales is the$260,000-$299,900 range. Homes in that segment have experienced a 49% decrease in the number ofsales.



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0-179,900

180,000-199,900

200,000-259,900

260,000-299,900

300,000-349,000

350,000-399,900

400,000-449,000

450,000-499,900

500,000-800,000

0 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80

Lake Monticello ONLY Sales by Price Range




Median Price by Area

The following chart shows the median home price, broken down by area. On this chart, 2007 is comparedto 2008, and we have added a column that shows the median price for Lake Monticello ONLY.

The median price is the price at which exactly half of the homes have sold for more, and half for less. Themedian price is a significant number because it is used to measure appreciation or depreciation. Thereason that the median is used, and not the average, is because if there were to be a few more sales ateither extreme of the price range, it would skew the average in that direction. The median is, therefore,considered a more accurate measure of overall value in the market.

In 2007, the median home price in the Charlottesville Area was $284,650 (through Sept. 30). Through the

same time in 2008, the Charlottesville Area median has dropped to $278,990 (-2%). Albemarle County isthe only area that has experienced an increase in the median (+4%).

Lake Monticello has experienced an 8% drop in median price through Sept. 30th ($230,000 vs. $250,000).Fluvanna County as a whole (including Lake Monticello) has experienced a 4% drop in the median price.

It would appear that, while the area is certainly experiencing price depreciation, it is very slight. There aremany areas of the country where depreciation is in the double-digits. While it might be shocking to localresidents, the Charlottesville Area is in much better shape than many parts of the country.


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80,000

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160,000

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Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna Greene Nelson *Lake Mont. Total

Median Price by Area (through Sept. 30)

2007 2008* This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello.Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS

D M k t b A



Days on Market by Area

The following chart shows the average Days on Market (DOM), broken down by area. It compares theaverage DOM, through Sept. 30, in 2007 and 2008. This chart also includes a column for Lake Monticelloonly.

DOM is a statistic that measures how many days a property is active in the MLS before it goes undercontract. The higher the number, the longer properties have remained on the market. Because of the waythe DOM statistic is calculated, there is always a possibility that the number does not actually reflect thetrue DOM for a property, but since it is the only measure we have, we rely upon it anyway. Typically, whenDOM isnt completely accurate, it is usually underestimating the true DOM of a property. So if the averageDOM for any area is inaccurate, you can safely assume that the number should be higher, not lower.

As you might expect, the average DOM has risen during 2008 for every individual area, and for theCharlottesville Area as a whole. Across the area, average DOM has risen almost one full month (29 days) in2008. It now takes an average of 115 days for a home to go under contract in the Charlottesville Area.

In Fluvanna as a whole (including Lake Monticello), the average DOM is now 125 days. This is 39 days morethan the same time in 2007. In Lake Monticello, specifically, the average DOM is now 113 days. This is 36

days more than the same time in 2007. If we combine these numbers, we can see that average DOM forproperties in Fluvanna County, specifically, should be 137 days.

Of course, all of these numbers are averages. Some homes sell very quickly, in days or weeks, while othersremain on the market for months, or even a year or more. The most significant factor in a higher DOM foran individual property is its price. Properties that are priced higher than their competing comparableproperties typically have a much higher DOM.


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The following two charts shows the total inventory of homes for sale in Fluvanna (including LakeMonticello), and for Lake Monticello only, broken down by month. For the purpose of this report, theinventory was measured on the first day of each month. For example, as of September 1st of 2008, therewere 377 homes on the market in Fluvanna County. 174 of those were located in Lake Monticello.

One significant statistic is that the gap between the inventory numbers for 2007 and 2008 has been closingover the last few months. In fact, on September 1st of 2008, the inventory numbers for Fluvanna as a wholeand Lake Monticello, by itself, were actually lower than the same day of 2007. Just as with the earlier chartthat showed sales by month, if this trend were to continue, it might indicate a stabilizing of the market.

The one thing that this chart does not tell us is whythe inventory is being reduced. Having already

examined the sales numbers, it is unlikely that inventory is reducing due to sales. It is possible that theinventory reduction is due to folks simply taking their homes off the market, or not putting them on themarket. Since this statistic only reflects home for sale that are listed in the MLS, it is also possible that someinventory reduction is due to homes being rented, and possibly even bank-owned properties not listed.

Regardless of the reason, any reduction in inventory is a positive sign for homeowners who are in asituation where they must sell. Only time will tell if we see an actual stabilization of inventory, so we haveincluded the last months of 2007, in order to give you an idea of what to expect.


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240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400


Fluvanna Total Inventory by Month*

2007 2008

*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every monthStrong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS


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100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200


Lake Monticello ONLY Inventory by Month*

2007 2008

*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every monthStrong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS


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Sold vs. List Price Fluvanna & Lake Monticello

The following chart shows the relationship between the listing price and the sold price of properties inFluvanna and Lake Monticello. It compares this percentage in 2007 and 2008. The Fluvanna columnincludes all homes, while Lake Monticello refers only to homes in Lake Monticello.

This statistic is important because it represents the percentage of the list price that owners are receivingwhen their home is sold. The statistic uses the list price of the home on the day it goes under contract, andcompares that to the sold price on the contract. One thing to keep in mind is that in some transactions,there are closing costs credits, or other credits included in the contract price. These credits have the effectof inflating the contract price, as the seller of the home does not actually keep the money. Therefore, thepercentage of sold vs. list price can sometimes be slightly inflated.

As you can see from the chart, sellers are getting a slightly lower percentage of list price in 2008 comparedto 2007. For 2008, sellers in Fluvanna as a whole are receiving 96.99% of list price, with sellers in LakeMonticello receiving an average of 96.4% of list price. One of the most important things to consider withthis statistic is that it doesnt not account for drops in the list price prior to the contract. Therefore, if ahome was originally listed for $300,000, dropped in price to $275,000, and then successfully sold for$270,000, the statistic would calculate that as 99.6%, not 90%.

As with many of the other statistics, these numbers represent an average across all homes sold. Meaningthat many homes are selling for at or near list price, while others are selling for well below the list price atthe time of contract. The statistic does show, however, what a seller and buyer can reasonably expect toreceive in a negotiation. Of course, each individual property presents a unique situation, so buyers andsellers should act accordingly.


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90

91

92

93

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95

96

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100

Fluvanna Lake Monticello ONLY

Sold Price vs. List Price (percentage)


L k M i ll W f S l S


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Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Stats

The following chart refers to only waterfront homes and condos sold at Lake Monticello through Sept. 30in 2007 and 2008. Included in the stats are only those homes that were on the main lake. There was onehome sold in 2007 located on Tufton Lake, which was excluded from the results. The chart shows the

average price and the median price of waterfront homes sold.

As you can see from the chart, both the average and the median price of waterfront homes has increasedin 2008 compared to 2007. The number of sales has increased also, rising from 13 to 14. Through Sept. 30of 2008, the average price of sold waterfront homes is $466,607, and the median price is $467,500.

For 2008, the highest-priced waterfront home to sell during that same time frame was $612,000, while the

low was $325,000 (a condo). In 2007, the high and low was $700,000 and $365,000, respectively.


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0

47,000

94,000

141,000

188,000

235,000

282,000

329,000

376,000

423,000

470,000

Median Price Average Price

Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Statistics*

2007 2008

*Stats include homes and condos on the main lake. 13 sales in 2007, 14 sales in 2008 (through Sept. 30)Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS

Conclusion


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Conclusion

Most people will probably agree that this is one of the more challenging real estate markets in recenthistory. Many of the challenges have to do with external market factors over which individual homeownersor buyers have little control.

The one thing over which buyers and sellers do have control is their own individual situations. For sellers,it is extremely important to carefully consider all of the comparable home data available, and to price thehome accordingly. It is extremely important that you carefully examine actual data on comparable homes.Overpricing a home is the most critical mistake that sellers make. Once the home is priced too high, itbecomes very difficult to catch up to the market without making drastic price reductions. Overpricing canalso waste days on market, as there are so many homes on the market that buyers have a lot of inventory

to choose from, so they can simply ignore homes that are overpriced. Proper pricing is the best way togive yourself the best opportunity to sell your home.

For buyers, the lending climate has most certainly undergone significant changes over the past few months.Interest rates remain at historic lows, but they have crept upward over the last few weeks. There are loansavailable, and with the shrinking of the banking sector, one might even argue that the best lenders are theones still standing. As a buyer, it is extremely important to explore as many loan options as possible, and to

compare loan options between different lenders. This will give you the best possible chance to find thebest loan for your situation. Buyers should also remember that the increased inventories can be both acurse and a blessing. Having more from which to choose is encouraging, but it can also be frustrating. Thebest way to prevent frustration is to have clear idea of not only what you can afford, but also what youneed from your next home. The more complete you can be with your criteria, the easier it will be toremove the clutter from the inventory, and concentrate on the homes that will truly fulfill your needs.


Th k


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Thank you

We at Strong Team REALTORS would like to thank you for taking the time to read our Fluvanna & LakeMonticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We hope that you have found all of the statistics and analysis bothinformative and valuable. We encourage you to share this document with others who you think may find

it valuable. If you would like more copies of this document, or to automatically receive our future marketanalyses, please call us at 434-589-5800, or send an email to [email protected].

It is always one of our goals to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary toachieve their real estate goals. We are always happy to help you with any questions you might have aboutreal estate, from statistics to staging advice, we are happy to share our knowledge and expertise whereverit is needed. Please dont hesitate to contact us with any additional questions or comments.

Strong Team REALTORS86 Joshua Lane

Palmyra, VA 22963434-589-5800

StrongTeamRealtors.com
http://www.strongteamrealtors.com/http://www.strongteamrealtors.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

strong team realtors fluvanna & lake monticello q3 market report

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