strong growth in new business for bu members in...

on international trade, finance and investment from the export credit and political risk insurance industry

Berne Union Spring Meeting

Strong growth in new business for BU members in 2017The global economy is currently looking rather healthy by a number of measures, with positive growth in both trade and GDP. Berne Union members’ business also performed extremely well, but a competitive environment and still-elevated claims urge a degree of circumspection.

Contents

Published by TXF Ltd on behalf of the Berne Union. ©TXF Ltd 2018 & the Berne Union. All rights reserved. The contents of this publication are protected by copyright. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored, or transmitted in any form or by any medium without the permission of the publisher and/or the Berne Union. The content herein, including advertisements, does not represent the view or opinions of TXF Ltd or the Berne Union and must neither be regarded as constituting advice on any matter whatsoever, nor be interpreted as such.

Editor-in-chief: Jonathan Bell

Editor: Oliver O’Connell

Sub-editor: Carl Morris

Production editor: John Smith

1 Introduction from the PresidentBy Topi Vesteri, Deputy CEO and Chief Credit Officer, Finnvera

3 Berne Union pushes data reformBy Jim Cruse, Senior Vice President, Office of Policy Analysis and International Relations, US EXIM and Tanner Gebhart, Policy Analyst, US EXIM

4 2017 Data CommentaryBy Paul Heaney, Associate Director, Berne Union

11 2017 Data and StatisticsIncluding: Berne Union Totals; Short-Term Export Credit Insurance; Medium/Long-Term Export Credit Insurance; Investment Insurance; Prague Club Committee; 2018 Outlook: State of the Industry Survey Results

Who we are Ad FA (21 X 29.7 CM).indd 1 2/10/17 6:00 PM

BU Spring Meeting Newsletter

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The daylight hours have started to stretch at pace here in Finland and in just a couple of short months we will return to those magical nightless-nights. As spring tentatively peeks out from its winter-refuge, I am reminded of the natural cycles of things; of new beginnings and of the completion of old. Indeed, as my own term as President of the Berne Union enters its final stretch, I am reflecting on the many changes we have seen and trying to anticipate what we may see in the future, amongst our members, within our industry and indeed in the world. Nothing is as given as continuous change:

Level and distribution of economic growth, elections and referendums, restrictions on free trade and risk of trade wars, regional conflicts and war risks, refugee problems arising from conflicts and climate change, ever changing regulations, digitalisation, disasters and diplomacy – a lot has changed and more will change.

In the Berne Union, integration of the Prague Club has strengthened our community, added depth, diversity, specialist knowledge and even friendship. It is a significant milestone in the history of our organisation, and one for which many congratulations are owed to my predecessors, colleagues and collaborators over the last three years.

More recently, we have overseen the creation of task forces, with responsibility for outreach and for data reform. In a busy year, both have progressed exceptionally, and once again I can offer thanks and

congratulations to all of those who have worked towards these goals amongst the Management Committee, Members and

Secretariat, with special thanks to the Chairs who have driven forward those initiatives: Maëlia Dufour (Bpifrance), Simon Foister (UKEF) and Jim Cruse (US EXIM).

The objective of the data task force, briefly, is to improve the

accuracy and utility of Berne Union member data, providing us with more meaningful, more reliable and more representative data for our industry. Central to this is the proposed shift to business-line reporting – as opposed to the current committee-based system – a move which explicitly recognises the increasingly important role played by the private insurance market in medium/long-term export credit business, as well as allowing the activities of our Prague Club Committee Members to directly contribute to the overall business data of the Berne Union – an important step in the consolidation of the integration process.

The outreach task force meanwhile, is concerned with increasing the profile of the Berne Union, our members, and the export credit insurance industry amongst media, policymakers and stakeholders from the wider world of trade finance. As the business

Introduction from the PresidentBy Topi Vesteri, Deputy CEO and Chief Credit Officer, Finnvera

In the Berne Union, integration of the Prague Club has strengthened our community, added depth, diversity, specialist knowledge and even friendship. It is a significant milestone in the history of our organisation, and one for which many congratulations are owed to my predecessors, colleagues and collaborators over the last three years.

Topi Vesteri


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we support becomes more complex, more varied, many of us find ourselves actively working alongside new counterparties, facing new regulatory regimes and adapting to new risks. In these cases our relationship with local and international financial institutions is paramount, both in the case of individual transactions and at the policy level, in the pursuit of ‘complementary’ financing solutions.

Co-operation with banks and other commercial trade and export finance lenders has always been a part of our daily life but also here we have intensified our relationship with the industry by working together with ICC Banking Commission in a joint working group.

It is exciting to see these initiatives beginning to come to fruition: in the case of the data task force, a revised reporting template is now ready for presentation to the membership, and following formal adoption we hope to move to the new system in time for 2019 reporting. Outreach initiatives have commenced already with colleagues from the world of development finance, and those of eximbanks, and I am truly proud to see the Berne Union taking the initiative to advance these important discussions.

Although the process and specific objectives differ entirely, there is a shared core-principle driving the work of both these task forces: that is the role of the Berne Union as a resource of knowledge and thought leadership for the industry. In fact, if we look at the final outcome, we could say that through both we ultimately endeavour to deliver the most complete picture of our industry to the world. My feeling is that as we enter the next phase of work on these important topics, the parallels will become even more relevant and I look forward to seeing how things continue to evolve as we take stock later in the year.

This publication itself is a new initiative for us, which illustrates this well: In line with our shift to biannual data reporting and as

an outcome of our ambition to communicate both internally and externally more regularly, we will now publish a full data report twice yearly – previously we had one annual

publication, and a simple collection of summary statistics at the half year point.

I hope that you find the information presented herein informative and useful. By all accounts 2017 was an excellent year for Berne Union members. Once again we made a tremendous positive impact on global cross-border trade and investment – rising to a new high of 14% of world cross-border trade covered. While there are a number of significant challenges facing our industry, we are well-placed and well-resourced to adapt and to continually improve our support to trade and investment globally. n

Once again we made a tremendous positive impact on global cross-border trade and investment – rising to a new high of 14% of world cross-border trade covered. While there are a number of significant challenges facing our industry, we are well-placed and well-resourced to adapt and to continually improve our support to trade and investment globally.

As the business we support becomes more complex, more varied, many of us find ourselves actively working alongside new counterparties, facing new regulatory regimes and adapting to new risks. In these cases our relationship with local and international financial institutions is paramount, both in the case of individual transactions and at the policy level, in the pursuit of ‘complementary’ financing solutions.


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Today, it’s difficult to overstate how important [good] data is to an organization; data drives decision-making at all levels from day-to-day operations to major strategic policies. Conversely, bad data, be it erroneous or simply not useful, is not only not helpful, but for an organization like the Berne Union it can hinder its full potential. This is the reason why the Berne Union leadership has so emphatically pushed data reform in recent years.

In 2013, as part of a broader effort to identify key priorities for the Berne Union, the members were surveyed on what they believed should be the primary areas of focus for the Berne Union as an organization. The results were clear—Data Improvement was identified as by far the most important effort that the organization needed to undertake. It was from that point that the Berne Union leadership established a Data Working Group (and subsequently the Data Task Force in 2016) and entrusted this group with the goal of substantial data reform through improving both functional accuracy and the broad utility of Berne Union data.

The process of data reform has operated by identifying deficiencies in the current data, and then developing a series of changes that could be made in order to achieve the priority improvements. One of the reforms that was identified early on was the need for a structural shift in what and how data was captured—a move from committee-based data reporting to business-line reporting. One of drawbacks of committee-based reporting is that the committee-based data provides an incomplete view of the export credit and investment landscape and virtually no view into the broader trade-related domain in which members are operating. Members also indicated a strong desire to begin collecting more granular data within the traditionally “core” business lines of the Berne Union (export credit insurance and insurance for foreign investments) by introducing data collection on industrial sectors. These two conceptual reforms culminated in the

development of a new reporting template that would be capable of capturing a broader scope of business and more detailed data on core business lines. Finally, one of the longest standing data issues that has afflicted Berne Union data has been the

lack of precise data definitions—the lack of definitional clarity surrounding even the core business of the Berne Union has led to confusion both from the data reporting/input perspective, and the data user perspective; the result being inconsistent, incomparable, and inaccurate data. The development of specific and detailed definitions represents a leap forward by ensuring that Berne Union data is significantly more reliable and comparable.

The Data Working Group began by surveying and consulting members on what and how Berne Union data is used. From an internal perspective, it was apparent that the data is used by almost all members and in a variety of ways: claims experience, country-by-country comparisons, macro trend analysis, etc. As a member-driven organization, this alone is enough to justify what has become nearly a decade-long effort to improve the data, but from a broader external perspective, data is the foundation by which the Berne Union is able to assert itself as a thought leader. The ability of the organization to speak as the expert on industry-wide trends and activities is linked to its ability to validate these assertions with factual data. Furthermore, Berne Union data is unique; it has the potential to serve as a leading and distinctive source for external stakeholders, academics, researchers, etc. if dependability can be established. More detailed and reliable data will allow the Berne Union to speak as the industry authority and will elevate the prestige and reputational standing of the organization. n

Berne Union pushes data reformBy Jim Cruse, Senior Vice President, Office of Policy Analysis and International Relations, US EXIM and Tanner Gebhart, Policy Analyst, US EXIM

“Data! Data! Data! I cannot make bricks without clay!” (Sherlock Holmes) – Sir Arthur Conan Doyle

Jim Cruse


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2017 saw positive growth in both trade and GDP – exceeding expectations, following a difficult year in 2016. Stock markets are currently booming and oil prices are back comfortably above the US$50 per barrel threshold, which signalled the broader crash in commodities prices seen in 2014 – 2016.1

This is positive news for export credit insurers and Berne Union members have reported an uptick in new business in almost all areas, including a return to growth in MLT business after a number of years of decline. A notable exception has been in investment insurance, which saw a fall in new cover provided for the first time in five years.

Informing this, and in contrast to the other overwhelmingly positive indicators, flows of FDI fell by around 16% in 2017. This was largely the result of a significant decrease in in-flows to developed markets2 – most developing markets retained similar levels of investment to 2016 – and may indicate residual long-term uncertainty from investors, despite superficial confidence. This uncertainty is driven largely by concerns over political risks and policy issues with the capacity to derail the current benign situation, rather than any purely economic conditions.

In our review of 2016, we noted the US presidential outcome, Brexit vote and divisive elections in a number of European countries as potentially disruptive political shifts. While some of the more concerning outcomes have been avoided for the time being, the broad shift towards protectionist politics has remained.

One year further down the line, the threat of trade barriers has been realised, rather than reduced. This is seen directly in traditional trade tariffs3, but also in policy approaches more generally.4 The real possibility of an international ‘trade war’ puts pressure on existing structural problems within the world trade system and threatens to undermine the rules by

which this operates. In the modern world, restrictions not just to flows of goods, but also data and to people, all increase the cost of doing business. This kind of isolationism jars with the long-term teleology of globalisation, and the

bigger worry is in the philosophy, rather than the practice.

Despite these risks, looking at the business figures for 2017, we see that our industry is performing well, and precisely in the way that it should.

Business is growing, which is positive news both for insurers and the real economy in which trade is insured. Indemnifications are also high – which is good news for the insured, and helps maintain economic value chains despite risks. At the same time, measures of long-term sustainability are positive, and there is no indication that claims are becoming unmanageable.

New business underwritten by members of the Berne Union in 2017 totalled US$ 2,330 billion, split among the following lines of business5:

l Short term export credits US$ 2,088 billionl Medium / long-term export credits US$ 179 billionl Investment insurance US$ 64 billion

Berne Union members share of world trade now amounts to over 14%, with world merchandise trade estimated to have grown by approximately 3.6% in 2017, to US$ 16.6 trillion.

The unusually high growth in new business – up 22% on 2016 – is accompanied by a

2017 Year end data in reviewBy Paul Heaney, Associate Director, Berne Union

The global economy is currently looking rather healthy by a number of measures

Paul Heaney


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large caveat that within the ST committee – which is by far the largest in business volume – one member, who previously reported only on the business of a single subsidiary, now reports at the group level, accounting for an estimated 77% of the calculated increase.

Nonetheless, even adjusting for this change, we can see an increase of around 5% on the total portfolio – an acceleration of the 2.5% growth in 2016, and keeping Berne Union members moving slightly ahead of world trade benchmark.

Following on the trend from 2015 and 2016, Berne Union members again paid over US$ 6 billion in claims through the course of 2017. At US$ 6.32 billion, this is well above the 10 year average of US$ 4.5 billion, but still 2.4% lower than the recent peak in 2016. In fact, looking only at short term claims, we see a healthy drop of 10% versus 2016 figures – the less impressive change seen in the total portfolio is accounted to a handful of significant claims in longer term business and investment insurance, where the nature of the business dictates that high claims in a single year are not indicative of a more general trend.

Overall, claims remain high, but considered in light of the larger business volumes, appear manageable, and there are some encouraging indications for further improvement.6

Recoveries in 2017 totalled just under US$ 3 billion – lower than in 2016, but higher than average over recent years. Strong improvement was seen in short term business especially.

Short-term export credit insuranceShort term business is defined within the Berne Union as insurance of exports with repayment terms of less than one year – and most often considerably less than this: 30, 60 or 90 days are standard. Policies indemnify the insured against losses as the result of non-payment or protracted default of a buyer due to insolvency or – in the cases of comprehensive policies – also due to political risks beyond the control of the buyer. Policies may cover multiple buyers and the insured’s

entire turnover, or just single risks on selected buyers.

Short term business typically relates to shipments of consumer goods and commodities, and is closely linked to movements in the broader global economic environment.

Both public institutions and private insurance companies provide short term export credit. In the Berne Union, private members’ share of new short term business in 2017 rose to 59% of the total.

In 2017, members collectively reported over US$ 2 trillion insured turnover – accounting for 90% of total volumes of new business, and by far the dominant activity of our members.

This US$ 2 billion Insured turnover for 2017 is 27% higher than in 2016. As noted above, a large portion of this is due to changes in reporting, rather than attributable to organic growth. The shift to reporting at group level by one large member has increased the figures considerably, but even accounting for this, we have seen an estimated 5% growth in insured turnover at the aggregate level, building on the 3% growth recorded in 2016.7

At the same time, and in the interests of improving the overall accuracy of Berne Union data, this year we have refined the definition of new commitments to focus more precisely on aggregate credit limits, rather utilised amount, which was previously reported by some members. Based on the members affected we can estimate that this change has resulted in an increase of around 10-13% across the portfolio.

Commitments at year end – now reported as aggregate credit limits – give us an indication of the current risk appetite of members. For 2017 this stands at US$1.67 billion.

While figures for turnover were only affected by first issue above (shift to comprehensive reporting from one member), commitments are also influenced by the second. Accordingly, relative to 2016 we have seen a huge increase – 66% – in commitments at year end. Nonetheless, again, we can estimate how much of this

Business is growing, which is positive news both for insurers and the real economy in which trade is insured. Indemnifications are also high – which is good news for the insured, and helps maintain economic value chains despite risks.


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is genuine growth, and find that we would expect around a 13% increase regardless.

The highest penetration for short term export credit insurance is by far in European markets – accounting for 55% of all outstanding exposure. A further 20% is accounted for by each of Asia, and the Americas (in this case split 50/40 between North and South) and only 5% for the rest of the world combined. The largest single obligor country is USA – alone accounting for 9% of commitments in 2017.

Members paid US$ 2.5 billion in claims in 2017, which accounts for 40% of the Berne Union total across all reporting committees. This value is around 30% higher than the 10-year average for short term business, since 2007, but is actually 10% lower than in 2016, despite the increase in business covered.

In terms of geography, claims distribution is not exactly in line with exposure. Russia & CIS, Sub-Saharan Africa and GCC countries all attracted a proportionately higher share of claims, relative to commitments. The claims to exposure ratio across the entire portfolio is 0.15, while for these regions we calculate 0.61, 0.53, and 0.45, respectively. The country with highest exposure, USA, also accounts for the highest volume of claims, followed by UAE, Brazil, China and Russia – with these top 5 countries contributing 35% of total for the year.

Overall, default to turnover ratio fell from 0.17 to 0.12 and loss ratio8 fell from 73% to 68%. Adjusted loss ratio9 meanwhile improved from 63% to 53%, following an exceptionally strong performance in recoveries, with members collecting over US$ 600 million last year – more than 60% higher than the average for the 10 years previous. These are positive indicators which indicate that while we are still in a period of high claims, for short term business at least this appears to have stabilised somewhat since the peak in 2016.

Despite these improvements, we are still at a rather soft point in the insurance cycle for core markets, and members continue to report pressure on pricing from the competitive market.

Premium income grew by only around 2.5% in 2017 – relatively lower than the estimated 5% increase in turnover, and suggesting that the improvement in loss ratios is due to an improved performance in claims and recoveries, rather than increase in profitability. Indeed, premium to turnover ratio actually decreased marginally, from

0.218% to 0.205% between 2016 and 2017.

Medium and long-term export credit insuranceThe Berne Union’s MLT committee records support (insurance, lending and guarantees) provided by official state-backed export credit agencies (ECAs), for transactions with tenors longer than one year (often 3, 5, 7 and up to around 10 years), typically in support of capital goods exports and large infrastructure projects. Some private members of the Berne Union are also active in medium and long-term business, but these statistics are currently reported within the ‘INV’ committee, and are included in section following.

Members provided US$ 141 billion of new cover during 2017 – around 10% of this in the form of direct loans. New business overall was therefore 6% higher than in 2016, ending a 5-year period of steadily declining volumes. While MLT business has indeed returned to growth, it is worth noting that this is still the lowest volume of new business recorded in the past 10 years, with the exception of 2016.

The increase in new business also reverses the fall in portfolio exposure which had begun to kick in following a number of years of sluggish business. Total exposure at the end of 2017 stands at US$ 751 billion (including US$ 67 billion in the form of loans).

Around a quarter of new MLT cover provided was for risks located in Asia, with the rest roughly split between North America, MENA, Sub-Saharan Africa, and MENA. USA remains the single largest obligor country, with new business increasing there by 16%. Significant growth was also seen in India (increasing by over US$ 11 billion), ASEAN (Indonesia & Laos) and GCC (Kuwait, Qatar and UAE).

Most new business (US$ 73 billion) was with corporate obligors, who increased their share to 52% (up from 43% in 2016). Sovereign commitments also increased to 29% (around US$ 41 billion), while new commitments to projects fell over US$ 5 billion to just 5% of the total. Lending activities meanwhile maintained the performance of 2016, with US$ 14.4 billion of new commitments, predominantly to corporate obligors in the US, Canada, India and Mexico.

Members paid US$ 2.9 billion in claims in 2017 – almost 3% lower than in 2016, but still around 40% higher than the 10-year average


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up to 2014, prior to the recent period of elevated claims.

Brazil and Russia were again the top 2 countries for MLT claims, again joined by Spain, Ukraine and Germany in the Top 10 – but with all of these countries, excepting Germany, seeing a relative decline in claims paid. Meanwhile, increasing claims in Singapore, Canada, Vietnam, Tanzania and the UK saw them join the top ten this year.

Looking at MLT claims paid over a 5-year period, shows 40% occurring in Europe (with 40% of these attributable to Russia & CIS countries), 24% in MENA (70% GCC) and 25% in the Americas (70% North America). Asia accounts for just 8% and Sub-Saharan Africa 3%.

Commercial claims still dominate – continuing the trend of the previous 2 years and accounting for 88% of the total – while just 3 years ago, political claims accounted for 48%.

The situation is reversed when it comes to recoveries, where members reported US$ 1.45 billion recoveries related to political claims compared to US$ 737 million in commercial. Overall, recoveries for 2017(US$ 2.2 billion) were back to more usual levels, following a remarkable year in 2016. Due to the nature of the business, political recoveries always tend to be higher, but spread over a long period of time, it is encouraging therefore that even though the absolute level of recoveries in 2017 was lower than in 2016, commercial recoveries increased considerable and were 32% higher than the 10-year average, this year.

Offers outstanding are the highest since year end 2014, and 17% higher than 2016 at US$ 106 billion. Strong appetite is indicated in the United States as well as Latin America (Peru, Brazil, Chile), South Asia (India, Bangladesh) and the Middle East (Iran, Saudi Arabia and Oman).

Investment and other cross-border risk insuranceUnder the ‘INV’ reporting line, Berne Union members report insurance of overseas investments against political risks10, as well as non-honouring of sovereign obligations11 and all other typical credit insurance protection against political and commercial risks for bonding, untied loans and such.12 This includes medium to long-term trade credit insurance provided by private insurers. From 2018 reporting onwards, some of these distinctions will become clearer, following the

overall shift of Berne Union reporting from a committee basis, to a business-line basis. For the time being, we will look at 2017 data as reported to the INV committee.

Total new commitments reported under INV came to 99 billion in 2017. While this is some US$ 14 billion lower than in 2016, it should be noted that that had been record year for new business and this 13% decline, should probably be seen as a correction to more usual levels, rather than a serious drop in activity.

Portfolio exposure continued to grow, increasing 6% to US$ 289 billion, split roughly 55% to investment insurance (INVI) 30% to ‘Other cross border trade’ (INVO) and 15% to sovereign non-payment (INVS). 40% of combined INV exposure relates to risks located in Asia, with a relatively even split of the remainder allocated to Africa, Europe and the Americas – given the different nature of business within the 3 sub-categories of INV, it makes more sense to look at this in more detail within those individual sections.

Overall claims paid came to US$ 545 million – a massive 76% higher than 2016 – coming as a result of a massive spike in INV claims, combined with a high level of INVO, sustained from the previous year, accompanied by a modest increase in INVS.

Global recoveries were impressive, with US$ 103 million across all members, relating to claims paid for sovereign/sub-sovereign non-payments in China, Gabon and Turkey and trade transactions in the Ukraine.

Investment insurance (INVI)New cover provided for investment insurance decreased by 6% versus 2016 levels to US$ 64 billion for 2017. A further note here on data changes however: Efforts to harmonise divergent data reporting from some members (regarding interpretation of new commitments) has also had a small negative impact on INVI and it is reasonably likely that most, if not all, of the observed decline could be accounted for in this way.13

ASEAN, CIS and Latin American countries account for 20% each of new business. A further 10% in each of East Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of Europe completes the picture. This is reflected in the top countries by business volume: Kazakhstan, Vietnam, Indonesia, China and Uzbekistan.

Members collectively paid US$ 232 million in claims under investment insurance polices in 2017 – the most on record for any single year. This figure is dominated by a single


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figure for a political violence claim located in Libya. That a single claim can so dominate the overall statistics underlines two essential characteristics of this business: that claims are relatively rare, and when they do occur, are often sporadic, isolated, and sometimes large – such is the nature of the underlying risks involved.

For the same reasons, recoveries on investment insurance claims are relatively unusual. The only noteworthy recovery in 2017 was an US$ 11 million relating to a claim in Turkey.

Trade credit insurance of state obligations (INVS)Members provided US$ 14 billion new cover for sovereign non-payment risks in 2017 – 20% lower than the high of 2016, but still notably higher than in any previous year.

Sub-Saharan Africa continued to boom in this business area, increasing its share of new business to almost a quarter of the total – Kenya, Ethiopia, Cameroon and Zambia showed most growth. South Asia also saw some gains (up from 9 to 12%), while most other regions either retained their share or declined slightly. Top countries for new commitments were: Turkey, India, South Africa, Oman and Egypt.

In a similar picture to INVI, INVS also recorded an exceptionally high year for claims, but again due to individual defaults. Two claims: US$ 41 million in Gabon and US$ 15 million in Venezuela accounting for the vast majority of the US$ 76 million recorded. Significant recoveries in Gabon (US$ 16.6 million) and China (US$ 13.5 million) contributed to a healthy total for the year of US$ 43.7 million.

Other cross-border trade (INVO)New business reported under INVO mirrored INVS in a 20% decline, down to US$ 21 billion for 2017. New commitments for obligors in the United States fell sharply, knocking it off the top spot, into second place behind Indonesia, which along with Singapore and Malaysia, grew business in ASEAN considerably. Other notable new commitments include: an increase of threefold in India, gains in Turkey and the United Kingdom, maintaining Europe’s share, as well as strong appetite in Mexico, Colombia and Argentina.

Claims paid fell by more than 10% versus 2016, but at US$ 226 million are still more than double the 5-year average, mostly due

to a large claim in Brazil – which accounts for almost 60% of the total – as well as considerably smaller, but significant claims recorded in the Ukraine Greece and Chile.

In line with the trend observed in other business areas, INVO had a good year for recoveries with members collecting US$ 46 billion, with the largest part in Ukraine, China, Thailand Brazil and Mexico.

Prague club committee member dataThe Prague Club Committee (PCC) is the Berne Union’s special-purpose group for emerging, regionally focused or smaller scale members of the export credit and investment insurance community. They are active in both short term and medium/long-term business. The markets Prague Club members are active in supporting are often some of the most dynamic and fastest growing, and this is reflected in their business data.

PCC members continued to grow their business in 2017, up US$ 1.5 billion to US$ 40 billion total for the year and taking commitments before reinsurance up to US$ 32.5 billion at year end – contributing 2% to the total Berne Union figure.

Short-term export credit insurance is by far the dominant activity of the Prague Club – even more so than for the Berne Union overall – constituting 92% of all new business in 2017. Here we saw growth in new business of 17% – higher than the adjusted figures14 for any other Berne Union committee / business area. Members earned US$ 91 million premium income on account of their short-term business activities, and increase of 9.8% on the previous year.

Claims have also continued to grow, reaching US$ 92.5 million for short tern

The Prague Club Committee (PCC) is the Berne Union’s special-purpose group for emerging, regionally focused or smaller scale members of the export credit and investment insurance community.


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business – more than cancelling earned premiums, and ending in a high adjusted loss ratio of 88%, even following US$ 13 million achieved in recoveries. Similarly to the story seen in the business of the ST Committee, we have a situation where the average premium/turnover ratio is falling, even as volumes of business are increasing – in the case of the PCC, down from 0.264% to 0.248% between 2016 and 2017. Such circumstances are vulnerable to a rising claims environment.

Volumes of new Medium/long-term business fell in 2017, following extremely strong growth in 2016: the total for the year reaching US$ 3.25 billion. The challenge for MLT business is that while new business (and premium income) has fallen more than 50%, claims have barely decreased since 2016 – reaching US$ 268 million for the year. This situation was improved somewhat by strong recoveries of US$ 102 million.

2018 Member SurveyAt the start of each year, we ask our members to complete a short survey to share their views on the current state of the industry. This allows us to gain some insight into broad trends, key themes and the likely direction of travel over the course of the year.

The survey is divided into two sections focusing on short-term and medium/long-term export credit business. The short-term portion of the survey includes also responses from members of the International Credit Insurance Association (ICISA) helping us to obtain a more detailed picture of trends across the whole industry.

Responses are invited across the members and no distinction is made in terms of committee membership. i.e. the ST survey includes responses also from Prague Club members who provide this, and the MLT survey includes data relating to private insurers, not just ECAs.

This is not a quantified survey, and no weighting is provided to distinguish members with high turnover and those with

lower – it is therefore not a good indicator of changes in volumes – either of new business or claims – but rather gives us a picture of changes in sentiment from the industry at large.

Since the questions all relate to business in 2018, the responses of course reflect current expectations rather than any concrete data.

Short-term trade credit insuranceThe vast majority of the respondents to the survey (85%) anticipate an increase in insured commitments, while the remainder expect business volumes to be comparable to 2017.

This is attributed to a relatively positive global economic outlook and corresponding increase in business confidence, combined with an attractive financing environment to increase exports. Some members also cite internal drivers of growth including product development and expansion into new markets. At the same time almost 45% of members expect at least a small increase in volumes of claims over 2018, confirming an ongoing higher risk environment.

The expected increase in claims is significant, due to the high baseline set by several years of elevated levels. However, while the number and volumes of claims will likely grow due to the increase in business, loss ratios are not expected to change significantly.

Broadly speaking, there is a divide between developed markets (Europe, North America, Australia), which are currently seen as quite soft, and emerging markets (Asia, MENA, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America), which are seen as neutral to hard. Over the course of 2018, members expect a potential softening in Latin America. For all other regions, the current status quo is expected to be maintained. The respondents particularly expect growth in new insured commitments in Asia (69%), Europe (62%), North America (41%) and MENA (40%).

The top regions where claims are expected (MENA – 57%, Europe – 54% and

Broadly speaking, there is a divide between developed markets (Europe, North America, Australia), which are currently seen as quite soft, and emerging markets (Asia, MENA, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America), which are seen as neutral to hard.


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Asia – 43%) somewhat mirror those for new insured commitments.

Medium and long-term export credits For the MLT survey, 78% of respondents anticipate an increase in cover provided through the course of 2018, both on the basis of new enquiries and offers in pipeline to be realised.

Rising oil prices are driving expectations of increased investment in large resource infrastructure projects along with a corresponding rise in capital goods exports. Along with infrastructure and transport, energy production and transmission are seen as presenting the best opportunities, while metals and mining are viewed as currently more fragile. MENA (76%), Sub Saharan Africa (68%) and Asia (62%) are highlighted as regions most likely to attract growth in new business.

Recent indemnifications and restructurings may have helped produce some relative stability with respect to claims in MLT business, which for 2018 is likely to be comparable to the previous year. Almost 60% of respondents to the survey indicated no expected change, while 90% recorded no significant change. However, despite the recent rebound, commodities producing countries remain vulnerable to adjustments in oil price and there is some potential for increased defaults here.

Broadly speaking, the economic environment seems to be on an upward trend; but at the same time this has effectively de-coupled from geopolitics, which is in many ways now more unpredictable than ever.

Public and private insurers of export credit continue to adapt to these circumstances and we expect to see more innovation through technology, policy, and better risk sharing.

Innovation and opportunity / concerns and challenges for the coming yearDigitalisation in its various forms is highlighted by members as one of the most powerful forces driving change and innovation and creating opportunities for the industry. In MLT business this most likely takes the form of digitalisation of existing processes and the use of technology in intermediation, while for short term insurance members also see opportunities for the development of new products, driven by

fintech/insuretech solutions. Some members expect a continuation of

what they identify as a prevailing policy shift within official export credit support towards broader mandates, semi-tied support and the replacement of national content with national interest. Amongst other things, this may lead to greater opportunities for cooperation (or indeed competition) amongst ECAs. Indeed, a number of respondents also envisage increased levels of risk sharing between ECAs and the private insurance market.

Several members voice concern about pricing issues, especially in the context of a potentially deteriorating claims environment, confirming the picture we have already seen in the data for 2017. Creeping costs of compliance and anxieties around banking regulations add to profitability concerns.

The ultimate influence upon trade of prevailing protectionist tendencies in the political sphere continues to occupy the thoughts of members. n

Notes1 According to WTO sources, estimated trade

growth in 2017 is 3.6% – upgraded from an earlier prediction of 2.4%. www.statista.com gives the average price of oil over 2017 at US$ 54.25 pb, and as of March 2018 the price of WTI crude is US$61.14 pb.

2 See UNCTAD ‘Global Investment Trends Monitor’ from January 2018.

3 Such as President Trump’s proposed global 25% tax on steel imports to the US.

4 Renegotiation of NAFTA, US withdrawal from TPP, and the demise of TTIP.

5 This split gives an indication of the relative volumes recorded in each of the relevant business lines, rather than by the standard committee reporting structure of the Berne Union (whereby the ‘MLT’ committee includes only ECA members, and the medium/long-term business of private members is rather reported within the ‘INV’ committee.

6 Across the whole portfolio, the ratio of business underwritten to claims paid fell from 0.34% to 0.27% in ST, turnover to default ratio fell from 0.17% to 0.12%.

7 This is a conservative estimate, since at time of printing a small number of members have not yet reported figures for insured turnover, which is therefore estimated, based on credit limits outstanding at year end.

8 Claims/premium.9 [Claims-recoveries]/premium.10 ‘INVI’ including: political violence, expropriation,

currency transfer and convertibility risks.11 ‘INVS’ – credit insurance products, providing cover

against the inability or unwillingness to pay by sovereign and sub sovereign obligors.

12 ‘INVO’ – predominantly medium/long-term untied export credit insurance.

13 In this case, one high-volume member’s internal accounting classified yearly policy renewals as ‘new commitments’ which in previous years will have unduly boosted figures.

14 i.e. figures adjusted to balance the distortions caused by changes to data reporting as mentioned in the text.


11

DA

TA A

ND

STA

TIS

TIC

S

Berne Union: Totals Keyn ST – Short Term Export Credit Insurancen INV – Investment Insurancen MLT – Medium/Long Term Export Credit Insurancen PCC – Prague Club CommitteeBerneUnionTotals

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Newbusinessduringeachyear,bycommittee

ST MLT INV PC

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Newbusinessduringeachyear,byproducttype

STexportcredits MLTexportcredits Investment

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exposureatyearend,bycommittee

ST MLT INV PCC

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exposureatyearend,byproducttype

STexportCredits MLTexportCredits Investment

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Claimspaidduringeachyear

MLT ST INV PCC

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Recoveriesduringeachyear

MLT ST PCC INV

BerneUnionTotals

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


ST MLT INV PC

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


ST MLT INV PCC

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


MLT ST INV PCC

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


MLT ST PCC INV

BerneUnionTotals

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


ST MLT INV PC

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


ST MLT INV PCC

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


MLT ST INV PCC

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


MLT ST PCC INV

BerneUnionTotals

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


ST MLT INV PC

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


ST MLT INV PCC

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


MLT ST INV PCC

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


MLT ST PCC INV

BerneUnionTotals

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


ST MLT INV PC

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


ST MLT INV PCC

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


MLT ST INV PCC

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


MLT ST PCC INV

BerneUnionTotals

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


ST MLT INV PC

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


ST MLT INV PCC

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


MLT ST INV PCC

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


MLT ST PCC INV

New business during each year, by committee

Exposure at year end, by committee

Claims paid during each year

New business during each year, by product type

Exposure at year end, by product type

Recoveries during each year

Note: all figures in USD millions, unless otherwise stated.


12

Berne Union: Short-Term Export Credit Insurance

Public and private share of new ST business

Turnover insured during each year


Public and private share of new MLT business

Credit limits at year end

Recoveries


13

DA

TA A

ND

STA

TIS

TIC

S

ShortTermNewBusinessbyRegion

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

Europe Americas Asia MENA S.S.Africa Oceaia

STCommitmentsatyearend2017,byregion

Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

N.Africa

OtherMiddleEast

GCC

SouthandCentralAmerica

N.America

S.Asia

ASEAN

E.Asia

0 40,000 80,000 120,000

SPAIN

ITALY

FRANCE

UNITEDKINGDOM

GERMANY

Europe

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

CHILE

CANADA

MEXICO

BRAZIL

UNITEDSTATES

Americas

0 2,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000

MAURITIUS

NIGERIA

GHANA

KENYA

SOUTHAFRICA

Africa

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000

SINGAPORE

JAPAN

HONGKONG

INDIA

CHINA

Asia

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

ALGERIA

MOROCCO

ISRAEL

SAUDIARABIA

U.A.E

MENA


0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000



Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

N.Africa

OtherMiddleEast

GCC


N.America

S.Asia

ASEAN

E.Asia

Russia&CIS

RestofEurope

0 40,000 80,000 120,000

SPAIN

ITALY

FRANCE

UNITEDKINGDOM

GERMANY

Europe

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

CHILE

CANADA

MEXICO

BRAZIL

UNITEDSTATES

Americas

0 2,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000

MAURITIUS

NIGERIA

GHANA

KENYA

SOUTHAFRICA

Africa

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000

SINGAPORE

JAPAN

HONGKONG

INDIA

CHINA

Asia

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

ALGERIA

MOROCCO

ISRAEL

SAUDIARABIA

U.A.E

MENA


0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000



Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

N.Africa

OtherMiddleEast

GCC


N.America

S.Asia

ASEAN

E.Asia

0 40,000 80,000 120,000

SPAIN

ITALY

FRANCE

UNITEDKINGDOM

GERMANY

Europe

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

CHILE

CANADA

MEXICO

BRAZIL

UNITEDSTATES

Americas

0 2,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000

MAURITIUS

NIGERIA

GHANA

KENYA

SOUTHAFRICA

Africa

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000

SINGAPORE

JAPAN

HONGKONG

INDIA

CHINA

Asia

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

ALGERIA

MOROCCO

ISRAEL

SAUDIARABIA

U.A.E

MENA


0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000



Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

N.Africa

OtherMiddleEast

GCC


N.America

S.Asia

ASEAN

E.Asia

0 40,000 80,000 120,000

SPAIN

ITALY

FRANCE

UNITEDKINGDOM

GERMANY

Europe

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

CHILE

CANADA

MEXICO

BRAZIL

UNITEDSTATES

Americas

0 2,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000

MAURITIUS

NIGERIA

GHANA

KENYA

SOUTHAFRICA

Africa

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000

SINGAPORE

JAPAN

HONGKONG

INDIA

CHINA

Asia

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

ALGERIA

MOROCCO

ISRAEL

SAUDIARABIA

U.A.E

MENA

Forfixingaxisongraphonp7

Forfixinggraphsizeonp17

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000

MAURITIUS

NIGERIA

GHANA

KENYA

SOUTHAFRICA

Africa

020,00040,00060,00080,000

100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Newbusinessinsuredduringeachyear

Corporates Sovereign OtherPublic

Projects Unspecified Banks

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


Political Commercial Lending


0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000



Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

N.Africa

OtherMiddleEast

GCC


N.America

S.Asia

ASEAN

E.Asia

0 40,000 80,000 120,000

SPAIN

ITALY

FRANCE

UNITEDKINGDOM

GERMANY

Europe

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

CHILE

CANADA

MEXICO

BRAZIL

UNITEDSTATES

Americas

0 2,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000

MAURITIUS

NIGERIA

GHANA

KENYA

SOUTHAFRICA

Africa

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000

SINGAPORE

JAPAN

HONGKONG

INDIA

CHINA

Asia

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

ALGERIA

MOROCCO

ISRAEL

SAUDIARABIA

U.A.E

MENA

Short Term New Business by Region

ST Commitments at year end 2017, by region

Americas

Asia

Europe

Africa

MENA


14

ShortTermClaimsbyRegion

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Americas Europe Asia MENA S.S.Africa Oceania

STClaims2017byregion

Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

OtherMiddleEast

N.Africa

GCC


N.America

ASEAN

S.Asia

E.Asia

Russia&CIS

RestofEurope

0 20 40 60 80 100

FRANCE

UNITEDKINGDOM

GERMANY

ITALY

RUSSIA

Europe

0 100 200 300 400 500

VENEZUELA

ECUADOR

CUBA

BRAZIL

UNITEDSTATES

Americas

0 10 20 30 40 50

TANZANIA

SOUTHAFRICA

ANGOLA

GHANA

NIGERIA

Africa

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

INDONESIA

KOREAREP.

HONGKONG

INDIA

CHINA

Asia

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

ALGERIA

MOROCCO

EGYPT

SAUDIARABIA

U.A.E

MENA


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800



Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

OtherMiddleEast

N.Africa

GCC


N.America

ASEAN

S.Asia

E.Asia

0 20 40 60 80 100

FRANCE

UNITEDKINGDOM

GERMANY

ITALY

RUSSIA

Europe

0 100 200 300 400 500

VENEZUELA

ECUADOR

CUBA

BRAZIL

UNITEDSTATES

Americas

0 10 20 30 40 50

TANZANIA

SOUTHAFRICA

ANGOLA

GHANA

NIGERIA

Africa

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

INDONESIA

KOREAREP.

HONGKONG

INDIA

CHINA

Asia

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

ALGERIA

MOROCCO

EGYPT

SAUDIARABIA

U.A.E

MENA


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800



Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

OtherMiddleEast

N.Africa

GCC


N.America

ASEAN

S.Asia

E.Asia

0 20 40 60 80 100

FRANCE

UNITEDKINGDOM

GERMANY

ITALY

RUSSIA

Europe

0 100 200 300 400 500

VENEZUELA

ECUADOR

CUBA

BRAZIL

UNITEDSTATES

Americas

0 10 20 30 40 50

TANZANIA

SOUTHAFRICA

ANGOLA

GHANA

NIGERIA

Africa

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

INDONESIA

KOREAREP.

HONGKONG

INDIA

CHINA

Asia

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

ALGERIA

MOROCCO

EGYPT

SAUDIARABIA

U.A.E

MENA


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800



Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

OtherMiddleEast

N.Africa

GCC


N.America

ASEAN

S.Asia

E.Asia

0 20 40 60 80 100

FRANCE

UNITEDKINGDOM

GERMANY

ITALY

RUSSIA

Europe

0 100 200 300 400 500

VENEZUELA

ECUADOR

CUBA

BRAZIL

UNITEDSTATES

Americas

0 10 20 30 40 50

TANZANIA

SOUTHAFRICA

ANGOLA

GHANA

NIGERIA

Africa

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

INDONESIA

KOREAREP.

HONGKONG

INDIA

CHINA

Asia

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

ALGERIA

MOROCCO

EGYPT

SAUDIARABIA

U.A.E

MENA


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800



Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

OtherMiddleEast

N.Africa

GCC


N.America

ASEAN

S.Asia

E.Asia

0 20 40 60 80 100

FRANCE

UNITEDKINGDOM

GERMANY

ITALY

RUSSIA

Europe

0 100 200 300 400 500

VENEZUELA

ECUADOR

CUBA

BRAZIL

UNITEDSTATES

Americas

0 10 20 30 40 50

TANZANIA

SOUTHAFRICA

ANGOLA

GHANA

NIGERIA

Africa

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

INDONESIA

KOREAREP.

HONGKONG

INDIA

CHINA

Asia

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

ALGERIA

MOROCCO

EGYPT

SAUDIARABIA

U.A.E

MENA

Short Term Claims by Region

ST Claims 2017 by region

Americas

Asia

Europe

Africa

MENA


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800



Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

OtherMiddleEast

N.Africa

GCC


N.America

ASEAN

S.Asia

E.Asia

0 20 40 60 80 100

FRANCE

UNITEDKINGDOM

GERMANY

ITALY

RUSSIA

Europe

0 100 200 300 400 500

VENEZUELA

ECUADOR

CUBA

BRAZIL

UNITEDSTATES

Americas

0 10 20 30 40 50

TANZANIA

SOUTHAFRICA

ANGOLA

GHANA

NIGERIA

Africa

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

INDONESIA

KOREAREP.

HONGKONG

INDIA

CHINA

Asia

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

ALGERIA

MOROCCO

EGYPT

SAUDIARABIA

U.A.E

MENA


15

DA

TA A

ND

STA

TIS

TIC

SForfixingaxisongraphonp7

Forfixinggraphsizeonp17

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000

MAURITIUS

NIGERIA

GHANA

KENYA

SOUTHAFRICA

Africa

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017




0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



Medium/Long-TermExportCreditInsurance

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017




0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exposureatyearend

Insurance Lending

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


Commercial Political NPL

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017




0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017




0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exposureatyearend

Insurance Lending

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017




0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017




0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exposureatyearend

Insurance Lending

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



Berne Union: Medium/Long-TermExport Credit Insurance

New business insured during each year


Exposure at year end



16

Medium/Long-TermNewBusinessbyGeography

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

Asia Americas MENA S.S.Africa Europe Oceania

MLTnewcommitments2017,byregion

Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

OtherMiddleEast

N.Africa

GCC


N.America

E.Asia

ASEAN

S.Asia

Russia&CIS

RestofEurope

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

SWEDEN

ITALY

RUSSIA

TURKEY

UNITEDKINGDOM

Europe

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

ARGENTINA

CHILE

MEXICO

CANADA

UNITEDSTATES

Americas

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

SAUDIARABIA

ETHIOPIA

ZAMBIA

KENYA

ANGOLA

Africa

0 5,000 10,000 15,000

PAKISTAN

BANGLADESH

CHINA

INDONESIA

INDIA

Asia

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

EGYPT

JORDAN

U.A.E

KUWAIT

QATAR

MENA


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000



Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

OtherMiddleEast

N.Africa

GCC


N.America

E.Asia

ASEAN

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

SWEDEN

ITALY

RUSSIA

TURKEY

UNITEDKINGDOM

Europe

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

ARGENTINA

CHILE

MEXICO

CANADA

UNITEDSTATES

Americas

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

SAUDIARABIA

ETHIOPIA

ZAMBIA

KENYA

ANGOLA

Africa

0 5,000 10,000 15,000

PAKISTAN

BANGLADESH

CHINA

INDONESIA

INDIA

Asia

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

EGYPT

JORDAN

U.A.E

KUWAIT

QATAR

MENA


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000



Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

OtherMiddleEast

N.Africa

GCC


N.America

E.Asia

ASEAN

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

SWEDEN

ITALY

RUSSIA

TURKEY

UNITEDKINGDOM

Europe

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

ARGENTINA

CHILE

MEXICO

CANADA

UNITEDSTATES

Americas

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

SAUDIARABIA

ETHIOPIA

ZAMBIA

KENYA

ANGOLA

Africa

0 5,000 10,000 15,000

PAKISTAN

BANGLADESH

CHINA

INDONESIA

INDIA

Asia

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

EGYPT

JORDAN

U.A.E

KUWAIT

QATAR

MENA

Forreplacing‘Africa’graphonp18

Forreplacing‘Europe’and‘Asia’graphsonp22

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

SIERRALEONE

ETHIOPIA

KENYA

ANGOLA

ZAMBIA

Africa

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

ITALY

GERMANY

UKRAINE

RUSSIA

TURKEY

Europe

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

UZBEKISTAN

CHINA

INDONESIA

VIETNAM

KAZAKHSTAN

Asia


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000



Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

OtherMiddleEast

N.Africa

GCC


N.America

E.Asia

ASEAN

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

SWEDEN

ITALY

RUSSIA

TURKEY

UNITEDKINGDOM

Europe

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

ARGENTINA

CHILE

MEXICO

CANADA

UNITEDSTATES

Americas

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

SAUDIARABIA

ETHIOPIA

ZAMBIA

KENYA

ANGOLA

Africa

0 5,000 10,000 15,000

PAKISTAN

BANGLADESH

CHINA

INDONESIA

INDIA

Asia

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

EGYPT

JORDAN

U.A.E

KUWAIT

QATAR

MENA


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000



Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

OtherMiddleEast

N.Africa

GCC


N.America

E.Asia

ASEAN

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

SWEDEN

ITALY

RUSSIA

TURKEY

UNITEDKINGDOM

Europe

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

ARGENTINA

CHILE

MEXICO

CANADA

UNITEDSTATES

Americas

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

SAUDIARABIA

ETHIOPIA

ZAMBIA

KENYA

ANGOLA

Africa

0 5,000 10,000 15,000

PAKISTAN

BANGLADESH

CHINA

INDONESIA

INDIA

Asia

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

EGYPT

JORDAN

U.A.E

KUWAIT

QATAR

MENA

Medium/Long-Term New Business by Geography

MLT new commitments 2017, by region

Americas

Asia

Europe

Africa

MENA


17

DA

TA A

ND

STA

TIS

TIC

S

Medium/Long-TermClaimsbyGeography(last5years)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Europe MENA Americas Asia S.S.Africa Oceania

MLTClaimslast5years,byregionAustralia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

N.Africa

GCC

OtherMiddleEast

N.America


S.Asia

E.Asia

ASEAN

RestofEurope

Russia&CIS

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

GERMANY

UNITEDKINGDOM

SPAIN

UKRAINE

RUSSIA

Europe

0 200 400 600 800 1,0001,2001,4001,600

BERMUDA

MEXICO

CANADA

UNITEDSTATES

BRAZIL

Americas

0 50 100 150 200

GHANA

NIGERIA

LIBERIA

GABON

TANZANIA

Africa

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

MYANMAR

KOREAREP.

VIETNAM

INDIA

SINGAPORE

Asia

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

LIBYA

EGYPT

SAUDIARABIA

U.A.E

IRAN

MENA


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000


MLTClaimslast5years,byregion

Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

N.Africa

GCC

OtherMiddleEast

N.America


S.Asia

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

GERMANY

UNITEDKINGDOM

SPAIN

UKRAINE

RUSSIA

Europe

0 200 400 600 800 1,0001,2001,4001,600

BERMUDA

MEXICO

CANADA

UNITEDSTATES

BRAZIL

Americas

0 50 100 150 200

GHANA

NIGERIA

LIBERIA

GABON

TANZANIA

Africa

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

MYANMAR

KOREAREP.

VIETNAM

INDIA

SINGAPORE

Asia

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

LIBYA

EGYPT

SAUDIARABIA

U.A.E

IRAN

MENA


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000



Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

N.Africa

GCC

OtherMiddleEast

N.America


S.Asia

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

GERMANY

UNITEDKINGDOM

SPAIN

UKRAINE

RUSSIA

Europe

0 200 400 600 800 1,0001,2001,4001,600

BERMUDA

MEXICO

CANADA

UNITEDSTATES

BRAZIL

Americas

0 50 100 150 200

GHANA

NIGERIA

LIBERIA

GABON

TANZANIA

Africa

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

MYANMAR

KOREAREP.

VIETNAM

INDIA

SINGAPORE

Asia

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

LIBYA

EGYPT

SAUDIARABIA

U.A.E

IRAN

MENA


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000



Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

N.Africa

GCC

OtherMiddleEast

N.America


S.Asia

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

GERMANY

UNITEDKINGDOM

SPAIN

UKRAINE

RUSSIA

Europe

0 200 400 600 800 1,0001,2001,4001,600

BERMUDA

MEXICO

CANADA

UNITEDSTATES

BRAZIL

Americas

0 50 100 150 200

GHANA

NIGERIA

LIBERIA

GABON

TANZANIA

Africa

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

MYANMAR

KOREAREP.

VIETNAM

INDIA

SINGAPORE

Asia

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

LIBYA

EGYPT

SAUDIARABIA

U.A.E

IRAN

MENA


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000



Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

N.Africa

GCC

OtherMiddleEast

N.America


S.Asia

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

GERMANY

UNITEDKINGDOM

SPAIN

UKRAINE

RUSSIA

Europe

0 200 400 600 800 1,0001,2001,4001,600

BERMUDA

MEXICO

CANADA

UNITEDSTATES

BRAZIL

Americas

0 50 100 150 200

GHANA

NIGERIA

LIBERIA

GABON

TANZANIA

Africa

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

MYANMAR

KOREAREP.

VIETNAM

INDIA

SINGAPORE

Asia

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

LIBYA

EGYPT

SAUDIARABIA

U.A.E

IRAN

MENA


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000



Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

N.Africa

GCC

OtherMiddleEast

N.America


S.Asia

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

GERMANY

UNITEDKINGDOM

SPAIN

UKRAINE

RUSSIA

Europe

0 200 400 600 800 1,0001,2001,4001,600

BERMUDA

MEXICO

CANADA

UNITEDSTATES

BRAZIL

Americas

0 50 100 150 200

GHANA

NIGERIA

LIBERIA

GABON

TANZANIA

Africa

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

MYANMAR

KOREAREP.

VIETNAM

INDIA

SINGAPORE

Asia

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

LIBYA

EGYPT

SAUDIARABIA

U.A.E

IRAN

MENA

Medium/Long-Term Claims by Geography (last 5 years)

MLT Claims last 5 years, by region

Americas

Asia

Europe

Africa

MENA


18

InvestmentInsurance

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Newcommitmentsduringeachyear

INVI INVO INVS

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exposureatyearend

INVI INVO INVS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


INVO PoliticalViolence INVS

Unspecified Expropriation Transfer

BreachofContract

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


INVO INVS Unspecified

PoliticalViolence Transfer Expropriation

BreachofContract

InvestmentInsurance

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


INVI INVO INVS

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exposureatyearend

INVI INVO INVS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017




BreachofContract

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017




BreachofContract

InvestmentInsurance

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


INVI INVO INVS

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exposureatyearend

INVI INVO INVS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017




BreachofContract

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017




BreachofContract

InvestmentInsurance

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


INVI INVO INVS

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exposureatyearend

INVI INVO INVS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017




BreachofContract

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017




BreachofContract

Berne Union: Investment Insurance

New commitments during each year





19

DA

TA A

ND

STA

TIS

TIC

S

InvestmentInsuranceNewBusinessbyGeography

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Asia Europe Americas S.S.Africa MENA Oceania

Newbusiness2017INVO+SAustralia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

OtherMiddleEast

N.Africa

GCC

N.America


E.Asia

S.Asia

ASEAN

Russia&CIS

RestofEurope

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

GERMANY

AZERBAIJAN

NETHERLANDS

UNITEDKINGDOM

TURKEY

Europe

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

CANADA

ECUADOR

MEXICO

BRAZIL

UNITEDSTATES

Americas

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

ZAMBIA

CAMEROON

ETHIOPIA

KENYA

SOUTHAFRICA

Africa

0 500 1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000

JAPAN

SINGAPORE

CHINA

INDIA

INDONESIA

Asia

0 200 400 600 800 1,000

SAUDIARABIA

U.A.E

QATAR

EGYPT

OMAN

MENA


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000


Newbusiness2017INVO+S

Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

OtherMiddleEast

N.Africa

GCC

N.America


E.Asia

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

GERMANY

AZERBAIJAN

NETHERLANDS

UNITEDKINGDOM

TURKEY

Europe

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

CANADA

ECUADOR

MEXICO

BRAZIL

UNITEDSTATES

Americas

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

ZAMBIA

CAMEROON

ETHIOPIA

KENYA

SOUTHAFRICA

Africa

0 500 1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000

JAPAN

SINGAPORE

CHINA

INDIA

INDONESIA

Asia

0 200 400 600 800 1,000

SAUDIARABIA

U.A.E

QATAR

EGYPT

OMAN

MENA


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000



Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

OtherMiddleEast

N.Africa

GCC

N.America


E.Asia

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

GERMANY

AZERBAIJAN

NETHERLANDS

UNITEDKINGDOM

TURKEY

Europe

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

CANADA

ECUADOR

MEXICO

BRAZIL

UNITEDSTATES

Americas

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

ZAMBIA

CAMEROON

ETHIOPIA

KENYA

SOUTHAFRICA

Africa

0 500 1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000

JAPAN

SINGAPORE

CHINA

INDIA

INDONESIA

Asia

0 200 400 600 800 1,000

SAUDIARABIA

U.A.E

QATAR

EGYPT

OMAN

MENA


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000



Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

OtherMiddleEast

N.Africa

GCC

N.America


E.Asia

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

GERMANY

AZERBAIJAN

NETHERLANDS

UNITEDKINGDOM

TURKEY

Europe

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

CANADA

ECUADOR

MEXICO

BRAZIL

UNITEDSTATES

Americas

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

ZAMBIA

CAMEROON

ETHIOPIA

KENYA

SOUTHAFRICA

Africa

0 500 1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000

JAPAN

SINGAPORE

CHINA

INDIA

INDONESIA

Asia

0 200 400 600 800 1,000

SAUDIARABIA

U.A.E

QATAR

EGYPT

OMAN

MENA


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000



Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

OtherMiddleEast

N.Africa

GCC

N.America


E.Asia

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

GERMANY

AZERBAIJAN

NETHERLANDS

UNITEDKINGDOM

TURKEY

Europe

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

CANADA

ECUADOR

MEXICO

BRAZIL

UNITEDSTATES

Americas

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

ZAMBIA

CAMEROON

ETHIOPIA

KENYA

SOUTHAFRICA

Africa

0 500 1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000

JAPAN

SINGAPORE

CHINA

INDIA

INDONESIA

Asia

0 200 400 600 800 1,000

SAUDIARABIA

U.A.E

QATAR

EGYPT

OMAN

MENA

Investment Insurance New Business by Geography

New business 2017 INVO + S

Americas

Asia

Europe

Africa

MENA


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000



Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

OtherMiddleEast

N.Africa

GCC

N.America


E.Asia

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

GERMANY

AZERBAIJAN

NETHERLANDS

UNITEDKINGDOM

TURKEY

Europe

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

CANADA

ECUADOR

MEXICO

BRAZIL

UNITEDSTATES

Americas

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

ZAMBIA

CAMEROON

ETHIOPIA

KENYA

SOUTHAFRICA

Africa

0 500 1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000

JAPAN

SINGAPORE

CHINA

INDIA

INDONESIA

Asia

0 200 400 600 800 1,000

SAUDIARABIA

U.A.E

QATAR

EGYPT

OMAN

MENA


20


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000


NewBusiness2017INVI

Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

N.Africa

OtherMiddleEast

GCC

N.America


S.Asia

E.Asia

ASEAN

RestofEurope

Russia&CIS

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

UKRAINE

RUSSIA

TURKEY

UZBEKISTAN

KAZAKHSTAN

Europe

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

ARGENTINA

UNITEDSTATES

BRAZIL

MEXICO

PERU

Americas

0 200 400 600 800 1,0001,2001,4001,600

NIGERIA

GHANA

CONGO

SOUTHAFRICA

SIERRALEONE

Africa

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

CAMBODIA

THAILAND

VIETNAM

INDONESIA

CHINA

Asia

0 200 400 600 800 1,000

JORDAN

ISRAEL

IRAN

SAUDIARABIA

EGYPT

MENA



0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

SIERRALEONE

ETHIOPIA

KENYA

ANGOLA

ZAMBIA

Africa

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

ITALY

GERMANY

UKRAINE

RUSSIA

TURKEY

Europe

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

UZBEKISTAN

CHINA

INDONESIA

VIETNAM

KAZAKHSTAN

Asia


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000


NewBusiness2017INVI

Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

N.Africa

OtherMiddleEast

GCC

N.America


S.Asia

E.Asia

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

UKRAINE

RUSSIA

TURKEY

UZBEKISTAN

KAZAKHSTAN

Europe

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

ARGENTINA

UNITEDSTATES

BRAZIL

MEXICO

PERU

Americas

0 200 400 600 800 1,0001,2001,4001,600

NIGERIA

GHANA

CONGO

SOUTHAFRICA

SIERRALEONE

Africa

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

CAMBODIA

THAILAND

VIETNAM

INDONESIA

CHINA

Asia

0 200 400 600 800 1,000

JORDAN

ISRAEL

IRAN

SAUDIARABIA

EGYPT

MENA



0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

SIERRALEONE

ETHIOPIA

KENYA

ANGOLA

ZAMBIA

Africa

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

ITALY

GERMANY

UKRAINE

RUSSIA

TURKEY

Europe

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

UZBEKISTAN

CHINA

INDONESIA

VIETNAM

KAZAKHSTAN

Asia


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000


NewBusiness2017INVI

Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

N.Africa

OtherMiddleEast

GCC

N.America


S.Asia

E.Asia

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

UKRAINE

RUSSIA

TURKEY

UZBEKISTAN

KAZAKHSTAN

Europe

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

ARGENTINA

UNITEDSTATES

BRAZIL

MEXICO

PERU

Americas

0 200 400 600 800 1,0001,2001,4001,600

NIGERIA

GHANA

CONGO

SOUTHAFRICA

SIERRALEONE

Africa

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

CAMBODIA

THAILAND

VIETNAM

INDONESIA

CHINA

Asia

0 200 400 600 800 1,000

JORDAN

ISRAEL

IRAN

SAUDIARABIA

EGYPT

MENA

Investment Insurance New Business by Geography

New Business 2017 INVI

Americas

Asia

Europe

Africa

MENA


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000


NewBusiness2017INVI

Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

N.Africa

OtherMiddleEast

GCC

N.America


S.Asia

E.Asia

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

UKRAINE

RUSSIA

TURKEY

UZBEKISTAN

KAZAKHSTAN

Europe

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

ARGENTINA

UNITEDSTATES

BRAZIL

MEXICO

PERU

Americas

0 200 400 600 800 1,0001,2001,4001,600

NIGERIA

GHANA

CONGO

SOUTHAFRICA

SIERRALEONE

Africa

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

CAMBODIA

THAILAND

VIETNAM

INDONESIA

CHINA

Asia

0 200 400 600 800 1,000

JORDAN

ISRAEL

IRAN

SAUDIARABIA

EGYPT

MENA


21

DA

TA A

ND

STA

TIS

TIC

S

InvestmentInsuranceClaimsbyGeography(last5years)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Americas Europe Asia S.S.Africa MENA Oceania

INVO+Sclaims,last5yearsbyregion

Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

N.Africa

GCC

OtherMiddleEast

N.America


E.Asia

ASEAN

S.Asia

Russia&CIS

RestofEurope

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

BOSNIA

RUSSIA

UKRAINE

SERBIA

SPAIN

Europe

0 50 100 150 200

PUERTORICO

UNITEDSTATES

CHILE

VENEZUELA

BRAZIL

Americas

0 10 20 30 40 50

KENYA

MALAWI

TANZANIA

NIGERIA

GABON

Africa

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

THAILAND

CHINA

INDONESIA

VIETNAM

INDIA

Asia

0 5 10 15 20

IRAN

U.A.E

LIBYA

MOROCCO

MENA


0

50

100

150

200

250

300



Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

N.Africa

GCC

OtherMiddleEast

N.America


E.Asia

ASEAN

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

BOSNIA

RUSSIA

UKRAINE

SERBIA

SPAIN

Europe

0 50 100 150 200

PUERTORICO

UNITEDSTATES

CHILE

VENEZUELA

BRAZIL

Americas

0 10 20 30 40 50

KENYA

MALAWI

TANZANIA

NIGERIA

GABON

Africa

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

THAILAND

CHINA

INDONESIA

VIETNAM

INDIA

Asia

0 5 10 15 20

IRAN

U.A.E

LIBYA

MOROCCO

MENA


0

50

100

150

200

250

300



Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

N.Africa

GCC

OtherMiddleEast

N.America


E.Asia

ASEAN

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

BOSNIA

RUSSIA

UKRAINE

SERBIA

SPAIN

Europe

0 50 100 150 200

PUERTORICO

UNITEDSTATES

CHILE

VENEZUELA

BRAZIL

Americas

0 10 20 30 40 50

KENYA

MALAWI

TANZANIA

NIGERIA

GABON

Africa

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

THAILAND

CHINA

INDONESIA

VIETNAM

INDIA

Asia

0 5 10 15 20

IRAN

U.A.E

LIBYA

MOROCCO

MENA


0

50

100

150

200

250

300



Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

N.Africa

GCC

OtherMiddleEast

N.America


E.Asia

ASEAN

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

BOSNIA

RUSSIA

UKRAINE

SERBIA

SPAIN

Europe

0 50 100 150 200

PUERTORICO

UNITEDSTATES

CHILE

VENEZUELA

BRAZIL

Americas

0 10 20 30 40 50

KENYA

MALAWI

TANZANIA

NIGERIA

GABON

Africa

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

THAILAND

CHINA

INDONESIA

VIETNAM

INDIA

Asia

0 5 10 15 20

IRAN

U.A.E

LIBYA

MOROCCO

MENA


0

50

100

150

200

250

300



Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

N.Africa

GCC

OtherMiddleEast

N.America


E.Asia

ASEAN

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

BOSNIA

RUSSIA

UKRAINE

SERBIA

SPAIN

Europe

0 50 100 150 200

PUERTORICO

UNITEDSTATES

CHILE

VENEZUELA

BRAZIL

Americas

0 10 20 30 40 50

KENYA

MALAWI

TANZANIA

NIGERIA

GABON

Africa

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

THAILAND

CHINA

INDONESIA

VIETNAM

INDIA

Asia

0 5 10 15 20

IRAN

U.A.E

LIBYA

MOROCCO

MENA

Investment Insurance Claims by Geography (last 5 years)

INVO+S claims, last 5 years by region

Americas

Asia

Europe

Africa

MENA


0

50

100

150

200

250

300



Australia&Oceania

S.S.Africa

N.Africa

GCC

OtherMiddleEast

N.America


E.Asia

ASEAN

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

BOSNIA

RUSSIA

UKRAINE

SERBIA

SPAIN

Europe

0 50 100 150 200

PUERTORICO

UNITEDSTATES

CHILE

VENEZUELA

BRAZIL

Americas

0 10 20 30 40 50

KENYA

MALAWI

TANZANIA

NIGERIA

GABON

Africa

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

THAILAND

CHINA

INDONESIA

VIETNAM

INDIA

Asia

0 5 10 15 20

IRAN

U.A.E

LIBYA

MOROCCO

MENA


22


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

MENA Europe Asia S.S.Africa Americas

INVIClaims,last5yearsbyregion

S.S.Africa

N.Africa

GCC

OtherMiddleEast

N.America


E.Asia

ASEAN

S.Asia

Russia&CIS

RestofEurope

0 10 20 30 40 50

BOSNIA

AZERBAIJAN

UKRAINE

TURKEY

RUSSIA

Europe

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

MEXICO

ARGENTINA

CHILE

CANADA

VENEZUELA

Americas

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

BURKINAFASO

NIGERIA

KENYA

CEN.AFRICANREP

MALI

Africa

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

INDIA

HONGKONG

THAILAND

MYANMAR

VIETNAM

Asia


0

50

100

150

200

250

300



S.S.Africa

N.Africa

GCC

OtherMiddleEast

N.America


E.Asia

ASEAN

S.Asia

0 10 20 30 40 50

BOSNIA

AZERBAIJAN

UKRAINE

TURKEY

RUSSIA

Europe

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

MEXICO

ARGENTINA

CHILE

CANADA

VENEZUELA

Americas

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

BURKINAFASO

NIGERIA

KENYA

CEN.AFRICANREP

MALI

Africa

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

INDIA

HONGKONG

THAILAND

MYANMAR

VIETNAM

Asia


0

50

100

150

200

250

300



S.S.Africa

N.Africa

GCC

OtherMiddleEast

N.America


E.Asia

ASEAN

S.Asia

0 10 20 30 40 50

BOSNIA

AZERBAIJAN

UKRAINE

TURKEY

RUSSIA

Europe

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

MEXICO

ARGENTINA

CHILE

CANADA

VENEZUELA

Americas

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

BURKINAFASO

NIGERIA

KENYA

CEN.AFRICANREP

MALI

Africa

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

INDIA

HONGKONG

THAILAND

MYANMAR

VIETNAM

Asia


0

50

100

150

200

250

300



S.S.Africa

N.Africa

GCC

OtherMiddleEast

N.America


E.Asia

ASEAN

S.Asia

0 10 20 30 40 50

BOSNIA

AZERBAIJAN

UKRAINE

TURKEY

RUSSIA

Europe

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

MEXICO

ARGENTINA

CHILE

CANADA

VENEZUELA

Americas

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

BURKINAFASO

NIGERIA

KENYA

CEN.AFRICANREP

MALI

Africa

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

INDIA

HONGKONG

THAILAND

MYANMAR

VIETNAM

Asia


0

50

100

150

200

250

300



S.S.Africa

N.Africa

GCC

OtherMiddleEast

N.America


E.Asia

ASEAN

S.Asia

0 10 20 30 40 50

BOSNIA

AZERBAIJAN

UKRAINE

TURKEY

RUSSIA

Europe

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

MEXICO

ARGENTINA

CHILE

CANADA

VENEZUELA

Americas

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

BURKINAFASO

NIGERIA

KENYA

CEN.AFRICANREP

MALI

Africa

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

INDIA

HONGKONG

THAILAND

MYANMAR

VIETNAM

Asia

Investment Insurance Claims by Geography (last 5 years)

INVI Claims, last 5 years by region

Americas

Asia

Europe

Africa


23

DA

TA A

ND

STA

TIS

TIC

S

ForresizingPCCnewbusinessgraphonp25

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


ST MLT

PragueClubCommittee

05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


ST MLT 0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exposureatyearend

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


MLT ST

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


MLT ST

PragueClubCommittee

05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


ST MLT 0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exposureatyearend

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


MLT ST

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


MLT ST

PragueClubCommittee

05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


ST MLT 0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Exposureatyearend

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


MLT ST

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


MLT ST

Prague Club Committee

New business insured during each year




Keyn ST – Short Term Export Credit Insurancen MLT – Medium/Long Term Export Credit Insurance


24

2018Outlook:StateoftheIndustrySurveyResultsShortTermBusiness

Insured Turnover

Decreasing No Change Increasing

S.S. Africa 10% 55% 35% Asia 0% 46% 54% Australia / Oceania 5% 68% 26% Europe 2% 33% 65% MENA 4% 48% 48% North America 2% 45% 52% Latin America 10% 50% 40% Claims

Decreasing No Change Increasing S.S. Africa 3% 72% 25% Asia 4% 77% 19% Australia / Oceania 3% 88% 9% Europe 13% 58% 29% MENA 9% 62% 29% North America 5% 78% 16% Latin America 11% 74% 16%

15%

71%

14%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

No change

Small increase

Significant increase

%ofrespondents

Expected change in volume of insured turnover for 2018

5%

15%

36%

37%

7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Significant decrease

Small decrease

No change

Small increase


% of respondents

Expected outlook for claims in 2018

2018 Outlook: State of the Industry Survey ResultsShort-Term Business

Based on the current state of business, how do you expect the total volume of insured turnover for 2018 to compare to 2017?

What is your outlook for insured turnover and for claims in 2018 for each of the regions below?

Overall, in comparison to 2017, what is your outlook for claims in 2018?


Expected outlook for claims in 20182018Outlook:StateoftheIndustrySurveyResultsShortTermBusiness

Insured Turnover

Decreasing No Change Increasing

S.S. Africa 10% 55% 35% Asia 0% 46% 54% Australia / Oceania 5% 68% 26% Europe 2% 33% 65% MENA 4% 48% 48% North America 2% 45% 52% Latin America 10% 50% 40% Claims


15%

71%

14%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

No change

Small increase


%ofrespondents


5%

15%

36%

37%

7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%


Small decrease

No change

Small increase


% of respondents


Insured Turnover

Claims


25

DA

TA A

ND

STA

TIS

TIC

S

Which are the top three regions where you anticipate growth in new business in 2018?

Which are the top three regions of most concern to you, regarding potential claims, insolvencies or other difficulties which adversely affect your business in 2018?

Top Regions for Growth of New Business in 2018

Top Regions of Concern (claims, insolvency, other risks)


26

Which are the top three industry sectors where you anticipate growth in new business in 2018?

Which are the top three industry sectors of most concern to you, regarding potential claims, insolvencies or other difficulties which adversely affect your business?

Growth Sectors

Sectors of Concern

Change to market pricing through 2018 Soft Neutral Hard S.S. Africa 9% 36% 55% Asia 50% 44% 6% Australia / Oceania 80% 20% 0%

Europe 68% 26% 5%

MENA 15% 62% 23%

North America 71% 29% 0% Latin America 23% 62% 15%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Construction / Machinery /

Vehicles

Metals & Mining

Consumer merchandise

Food & Agriculture

Paper & Textiles

Chemicals & Pharma

Other

Sectors of Concern

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Food & Agriculture


Vehicles

Chemicals & Pharma


Metals & Mining

Paper & Textiles

Other

Growth Sectors


Europe 68% 26% 5%

MENA 15% 62% 23%


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


Vehicles

Metals & Mining


Food & Agriculture

Paper & Textiles

Chemicals & Pharma

Other

Sectors of Concern

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Food & Agriculture


Vehicles

Chemicals & Pharma


Metals & Mining

Paper & Textiles

Other

Growth Sectors

How do you consider the current state of the market and outlook for the market for 2018?


Europe 68% 26% 5%

MENA 15% 62% 23%


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


Vehicles

Metals & Mining


Food & Agriculture

Paper & Textiles

Chemicals & Pharma

Other

Sectors of Concern

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Food & Agriculture


Vehicles

Chemicals & Pharma


Metals & Mining

Paper & Textiles

Other

Growth Sectors

Change to market pricing through 2018


27

DA

TA A

ND

STA

TIS

TIC

S

2018 Outlook: State of the Industry Survey ResultsMedium/Long-Term Business

Based on the current state of business, how do you expect the total volume of new commitments in 2018 to compare to 2017?

Based on the current state of business, how do you expect the total volume of new commitments in 2018 to compare to 2017?

What is your outlook for cover demand and for claims in 2018 for each of the regions below?

Expect change in cover provided for 2018 Expected outlook for claims in 2018

2018Outlook:StateoftheIndustrySurveyResultsMedium/Long-termBusinessCover Demand


Claims


3%

8%

13%

60%

18%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%


Small decrease

No change

Small increase


%ofrespondents

Expect change in cover provided for 2018

8%

15%

56%

15%

5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%


Small decrease

No change

Small increase


% of respondents


2018Outlook:StateoftheIndustrySurveyResultsMedium/Long-termBusinessCover Demand


Claims


3%

8%

13%

60%

18%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%


Small decrease

No change

Small increase


%ofrespondents


8%

15%

56%

15%

5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%


Small decrease

No change

Small increase


% of respondents

Expected outlook for claims in 2018 2018Outlook:StateoftheIndustrySurveyResultsMedium/Long-termBusinessCover Demand


Claims


3%

8%

13%

60%

18%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%


Small decrease

No change

Small increase


%ofrespondents


8%

15%

56%

15%

5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%


Small decrease

No change

Small increase


% of respondents


Cover Demand

Claims


28

Which are the top three regions where you anticipate growth in new business in 2018?

Which are the top three regions of most concern to you, regarding potential claims, insolvencies or other difficulties which adversely affect your business in 2018?

Which are the top three industry sectors where you anticipate growth in new business in 2018?

Which are the top three industry sectors of most concern to you, regarding potential claims, insolvencies or other difficulties which adversely affect your business?

Growth Sectors Sectors of Concern

Top Regions for Growth of New Business in 2018

Top Regions of Concern (claims, insolvency, other risks)

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Infrastructure

Energy (ex renewables)

Transportation

Renewables

Natural Resources (including metals)

Manufacturing

Telecommunications

Growth Sectors

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%



Infrastructure

Manufacturing

Transportation

Renewables

Telecommunications

Sectors of Concern

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Infrastructure


Transportation

Renewables


Manufacturing

Telecommunications

Growth Sectors

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%



Infrastructure

Manufacturing

Transportation

Renewables

Telecommunications

Sectors of Concern

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Infrastructure


Transportation

Renewables


Manufacturing

Telecommunications

Growth Sectors

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%



Infrastructure

Manufacturing

Transportation

Renewables

Telecommunications

Sectors of Concern

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TXF Data gives you access to the most comprehensive deals database in the

global export & commodity finance markets.

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Email [email protected] for a demonstration.

There are easier ways to get data

International Union of Credit & Investment Insurers1st Floor · 27-29 Cursitor Street · London · EC4A 1LT · United Kingdom

Tel: +44 (0)20 7841 1110 · Fax: +44 (0)20 7430 0375www.berneunion.org

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