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Second Chance Entries Active Trend Trading: Dennis W. Wilborn “Observe things how they are; See things how they can be!” Strategy when the first trigger is Missed

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Page 1: Strategy when the first trigger is Missed - ACTIVE TREND TRADING… · Strategy when the first trigger is Missed. Disclaimer ... any trading system or methodology is not necessarily

Second Chance EntriesActive Trend Trading: Dennis W. Wilborn

“Observe things how they are;

See things how they can be!”

Strategy when the first trigger is Missed

Page 2: Strategy when the first trigger is Missed - ACTIVE TREND TRADING… · Strategy when the first trigger is Missed. Disclaimer ... any trading system or methodology is not necessarily

Disclaimer

Copyright ATTS 2007-2015

• U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures

and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware

of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets.

Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to

Buy/Sell stocks, futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is

likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this training. The past performance of

any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

• CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN

LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT

REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE

RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN

MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN

GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF

HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY

TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

• All Materials presented are for training purposes only . Traders should paper trade any new

method prior to risk of personal capital.

Page 3: Strategy when the first trigger is Missed - ACTIVE TREND TRADING… · Strategy when the first trigger is Missed. Disclaimer ... any trading system or methodology is not necessarily

Second Chance Entries

Very few things are more frustrating than waiting for a trigger and missing the initial trade!

Our first inclination is to give up on the stock/ETF!

How can traders objectively plan entries when it appears they have missed the first trigger?

Apply ATTS Rules of the Pullback and design a strategically sound trade.

“Vision is the art of Seeing Things Invisible!”

~~ Jonathan Swift

“People Only See What They are Prepared to See”

~~ Ralph Waldo Emerson

“Observe things how they are;

See things how they can be!”

~~ DWW

Page 4: Strategy when the first trigger is Missed - ACTIVE TREND TRADING… · Strategy when the first trigger is Missed. Disclaimer ... any trading system or methodology is not necessarily

The Set UpIf the initial move is missed either up or down

Prerequisites: A strong reversal

1. Target Pullbacks towards the 8/20/50 period moving average

• Identify a specific trigger range

2. Establish Stop Losses

3. Establish Profit Targets

4. Establish when to move Stops

5. Establish what happened before, what’s happening now and

what may happen soon!

Page 5: Strategy when the first trigger is Missed - ACTIVE TREND TRADING… · Strategy when the first trigger is Missed. Disclaimer ... any trading system or methodology is not necessarily

RulesThe initial Strong Reversal

• Defined by bounce from strong support/resistance

1. Optional wait for a 8-20 cross or go to intraday chart

2. Define value of 8 period EMA & Estimate where it will be

3. Place Conditional Order at defined level

4. Stop Loss 2% on Intraday Triggers; 4% on Daily Triggerso Once up by 2% Intraday or 4% Daily—move stop to close below/above 8

period EMA or B.E. but choose one!

5. Profit Targets: T1 = Intraday 2-5%; Daily 5-15%o Options take profits at 30% & 50%; use close below/above 8 day as trailing

stop on remaining contracts

We do not know what’s going to happen with any pullback

Page 6: Strategy when the first trigger is Missed - ACTIVE TREND TRADING… · Strategy when the first trigger is Missed. Disclaimer ... any trading system or methodology is not necessarily

Use simple spreadsheet to calculate parameters

DON’T GUESS!

Page 7: Strategy when the first trigger is Missed - ACTIVE TREND TRADING… · Strategy when the first trigger is Missed. Disclaimer ... any trading system or methodology is not necessarily

Examples—Daily NTES

Run = 27%

NTES began the year as #1 on IBD 50

Multiple Bounces off Support

Breakout and bounces off the 8/20 cluster. Second Chance Entries

Second-Second Chance

Run = 26%

Page 8: Strategy when the first trigger is Missed - ACTIVE TREND TRADING… · Strategy when the first trigger is Missed. Disclaimer ... any trading system or methodology is not necessarily

Examples—Daily NTES

Page 9: Strategy when the first trigger is Missed - ACTIVE TREND TRADING… · Strategy when the first trigger is Missed. Disclaimer ... any trading system or methodology is not necessarily

Examples—Weekly

6 Weeks to Pullback

Page 10: Strategy when the first trigger is Missed - ACTIVE TREND TRADING… · Strategy when the first trigger is Missed. Disclaimer ... any trading system or methodology is not necessarily

Examples—Intraday

50 period = 8 day EMA

First Pullback

Intraday Charts show RangeRange tells us if it’s worth focusing on Intraday Charts

Daily Range = $4 - $5

First Pullback

Page 11: Strategy when the first trigger is Missed - ACTIVE TREND TRADING… · Strategy when the first trigger is Missed. Disclaimer ... any trading system or methodology is not necessarily

Examples—Intraday

50 period = 8 day EMA

First Pullback

Page 12: Strategy when the first trigger is Missed - ACTIVE TREND TRADING… · Strategy when the first trigger is Missed. Disclaimer ... any trading system or methodology is not necessarily

Other Considerations – To Lessen the need for 2nd Chance Entry

1. Limit size of watch list—more efficient use of review time

2. Wait for initial entry signals

3. If the initial opportunity is missed—don’t worry its time

to wait