strategic housing market assessment 2009: eden valley south€¦ · draft eden valley south...

3

DRAFT Eden Valley South Strategic Housing Market Assessment

1. Current Market Profile Headline Findings Targets Key Issues 2. Balanced Housing Market Indicators 3. The Current Housing Market

Stage 1: The Demographic and Economic Context

1.1 Demography and Household Types 1.2 National and Regional Economic Policy 1.3 Employment Levels and Structure 1.4 Incomes and Earnings

Stage 2: The Housing Stock

2.1 The Dwelling Profile 2.2 Stock Condition 2.3 Shared Housing and Communal Establishments

Stage 3: The Active Market

3.1-3.2 The cost of buying or renting a property and affordability 3.3 Overcrowding and under-occupation 3.4 Vacancies, available supply and turnover by tenure 3.5 Second Homes and Vacant Dwellings

Stage 4: Bringing the Evidence Together

4.1 Mapping Market Characteristics 4.2 Trends and Drivers 4.3 Issues of Future Policy/ Strategy

4. The Future Housing Market

Stage 1: Projecting changes in future numbers of households Stage 2: Future Economic Performance Stage 3: Future Affordability Stage 4: Bringing the Evidence Together

5. Housing Need (affordable housing) Stage 1: Current Housing Need Stage 2: Future Housing Need Stage 3: Affordable Housing Supply Permissions and Completions:

Market led and affordable housing

Affordable housing only- permissions and completions 2006-08

Market led and affordable housing delivery

4

Units taken out of management 2006-2008

Stage 4: Housing Requirements of Households in Need Stage 5: Bringing the Evidence Together

Updated estimate of net annual housing need

Key issues for future policy/ strategy

Joining up across the assessment

6. Housing Requirements of Specific Household Groups

Supported Housing

Elderly persons needs

Gypsy and Traveller

Homelessness

7. Report Conclusions – Bringing the Evidence Together

Bibliography Appendices Acknowledgements Paula Kennerley, Cumbria County Council Stuart Frank, Cumbria Vision

Introduction to the Strategic Housing Market Assessment The SHMA documents have been prepared jointly by each Cumbria district in consultation with local and county stakeholders and have been compiled using the Governments‟ Strategic Housing Market Assessments Practice Guidance Version 2, August 2007. The documents are not intended to provide definitive estimates of housing need, demand and market conditions. However they aim to provide insights into how housing markets operate both now and in the future. They are intended to allow an evidence base upon which to develop planning and housing policies by considering the characteristics of the housing market, how key factors work together and the probable scale of change in future housing needs and demand (SHMA Guidance, 2007, pp7-9). To allow ease of reference each stage of the assessment follows the same order as the Guidance. Data sources occasionally differ from those recommended in the Guidance where they have been unavailable or where more robust up to date information has been accessed. The following analysis looks at the housing market area and provides information on the wider District and Cumbrian level where this adds contextual information. For a full methodology and checklist of core outputs and process please see appendix 1.

5

Abbreviations EDC Eden District Council HMA Housing market area LDNP/A Lake District National Park / Authority SHMA Strategic housing market assessment TTWAs Travel to work areas

6

DRAFT Eden Valley South Strategic Housing Market Assessment

1.Current Market Profile Composition of Eden Valley South Housing Market Area (wards) Appleby Long Marton Warcop Kirkby Stephen Crosby Ravensworth Eamont Brough Ravenstondale Morland Kirkby Thore Orton with Tebay With the second largest population in the District, the southern end of the Eden Valley contains two of the Districts key service centers, Appleby-in-Westmorland and Kirkby Stephen. Three busy commuter routes cross the area, placing it within easy reach of Kendal and the south, Penrith and the north and across into the Northeast. Despite this the area is characterised by a number of often sparsely populated and remote villages. Those lying to the east of the area are within reach of the M6 and Lakes National Park and until recently house prices in these areas were comparatively cheaper than the National Park, making them desirable as second and holiday home locations. Other areas, however, while experiencing low house prices, are characterised by isolation, low incomes, and pockets of slow or static growth.

Headline Findings

Wider commuting patterns than the North HMA but a level of self-containment around the market towns.

High levels of self-employment and good level of economic activity. However dependence on lower paid industries.

Risk of out-migration and increased commuting for better pay.

House prices in some areas are comparable to the Lake District National Park and unaffordable to local people. There is a high level of homes owned outright and low proportion of social rented housing.

There is a mixture of people wishing to downsize and others requiring larger properties. The lack of affordable housing is hindering the flow of supply and demand.

The effects of the aging population on the supply of housing need attention

Targets The following targets have been devised for this market area. In order to achieve these appropriate actions from the Cumbria Housing Strategy Action Plan will be applied.

50 units of affordable housing per year for the next two years to be reviewed thereafter.

.

7

A target relating to floating support will be identified during the Supporting People review of Floating Support.

A target relating to move on accommodation will be identified within the Cumbria Move On Strategy, 2007/08.

100% of all social housing decent by 2010.

70% of private sector housing providing homes for vulnerable people to meet Decent Homes Standard by 2010.

At least one empty property returned to use through empty property grants per year.

Key Issues

Affordable Housing

Popular town and village locations and pockets of highly priced housing and second/holiday homes.

However this is matched by low incomes making these unaffordable to local people - the lower quartile house price to lower quartile income ratio is 10x

Whilst containing the second highest number of social rented properties, this is also disproportionately low to the population.

Mixture of people wishing to downsize and others requiring larger properties - affordability issues are preventing the flow of demand and supply.

Starter homes and move-up family housing is required for those trapped on the bottom rung of he housing ladder. Additional bottom rung affordable housing is also required to support those in low paid sectors.

Homelessness

Well below the indicator level at 0.07% of all households. However some evidence of homeless acceptances and the high number of households in the area may mask the overall level.

Supported Housing

Support and lack of services within walking distance may become an increasing issue for the elderly within rural areas. With younger people finding it increasingly difficult to remain in villages the elderly may become more isolated.

8

Eden District wide issues include need for move-on accommodation to enable people to live independently and free up space in supported housing schemes across various client groups such as mental health.

General need for increased floating support.

Increased costs involved in providing services to rural areas - a particular concern due to the sparse rural nature of many areas in the Eden District.

Decent Homes

Plans in place to make 70% social housing decent by 2010.

Regeneration

Not a priority for housing in the area.

Employment

The area is characterised by a high proportion of skilled trades, distribution/hotel/restaurant, public administration industries and agriculture.

Notably the area contains the greatest number of people in the Eden District employed in agriculture/hunting/forestry,

The number of construction companies has doubled since 2003.

There is an ongoing demand from skilled and elementary occupations. Evidence points to posts not being filled.

There is a high level of self-employment. Further research is required on the extent of home working: parish members comment that this may be „significant‟.

Increasing commuting patterns threaten the areas self-containment.

Market Drivers

Effect of the Lake District National Park to the east.

Good commuter links - attractive to those working in Appleby, Kirkby Stephen, Penrith or Kendal. However parish member‟s transport is problematic in the more remote fell side areas.

A variety of attractive and convenient rural settlements, small towns and sparser remote villages have given rise to a wide range of house prices

93% of Residents are satisfied/very satisfied with their neighbourhood, with schools, healthcare, parks/open spaces all viewed as very/fairly good.

Negative drivers are lack of shops providing for basic needs, public transport, volume of traffic and rubbish/litter are all seen as problems. Lack of facilities area a particular problem in the smaller villages and for elderly people who have mobility problems.

9

2. Local Housing Market Indicators

A set of local housing market indicators are in the process of being developed to assess the extent to which a housing market is balanced. Proposed indicators are contained in appendix xx. Further work is needed to ensure the indicators can be monitored regularly and the information collected consistently across Cumbria. This will need the co-operation of social registered landlords, strategy and planning departments in collecting the data at housing market level.

10

3. The Current Housing Market The aim of this chapter is to assess the current housing situation to see what is driving the housing system. This involves interpreting a wide range of data and trends to produce a picture of the housing situation and covers demographics, the policy context, labour force structure, characteristics of the housing stock, incomes and house prices.

Stage 1: The demographic and economic context

1.1 Demography and household types

The population in the District overall has been growing slowly: on average since 1991 there has been an increase of 0.74% per year which compares to the regional growth of 1.2% (PopGroup).

Currently the spread of age groups is skewed towards the middle aged and elderly with 70% aged over 30. The largest age group is 45-59.

The percentage of people aged over 60 is 27% compared to the regional figure of 24% reflecting the desirability as a retirement location and the increasing effects of the aging population (see „Future Housing Market‟ Chapter 4).

Follows Eden District patterns for household types with a slightly higher than County and Regional percentage for households with no children and lower percent of households with dependant children.

The highest household type is one person households of which more than half are pensioners living alone.

The second highest household type is households with children. Within this the level of lone parent households is similar to Eden and Cumbria as a whole and remains lower than the regional average.

The proportion of ethnic minority groups is significantly lower than regionally or nationally - there are 11% fewer non-white British groups than the national figure.

Table Age Range July 2008

ALL PEOPLE

0 - 4 5 - 14 15 - 29 30 - 44 45 - 59 60 - 74 75 +

Alston 2096 77 251 313 390 518 380 167

100 4 12 15 19 25 18 8

Eden Valley North

26326 1281 2939 3885 5586 5888 4349 2398

100 5 11 15 21 22 17 9

Eden Valley South

17459 788 2059 2286 3426 4054 3197 1649

100 5 12 13 20 23 18 9

North Lakes East

5820 261 624 780 1141 1371 1081 562

100 4 11 13 20 24 19 10 Source: PopGroup, Cumbria County Council

11

Table Household Type Eden Valley South Count

Eden Valley South %

Eden % Cumbria % North West %

All Households 6,932

One person households 1,864 26.8 28.1 30.1 30.9

- Of which Pensioners living alone 1,018 14.6 15.2 15.8 15.1

All other Pensioner households 841 12.1 11.5 10.8 8.9

Households with dependent Children 1,830 26.3 26.9 27.5 30.4

- Of which Lone Parents households with dependent children

241 3.4 3.9 5.5 7.7

Households with non-dependent children 729 10.5 10.3 9.8 10.3

- Of which Lone Parent Households 189 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.5

Households with no children 1,505 21.7 21.0 19.3 16.4

All Other households 163 2.3 2.4 2.5 3.0

Source: 2001 Census, ONS

Table Ethnic Group Eden Valley

South %

Eden % North West % England and Wales %

All People (16,498) (49,767) (6,729,766) (52,041,916)

White - British 98.8% 98.49% 92.17% 87.49%

White - Irish 0.27% 0.30% 1.15% 1.23%

White - Other 0.51% 0.80% 1.11% 2.59%

Mixed - White and Black Caribbean 0.05% 0.05% 0.33% 0.46%

Mixed - White and Black African 0% 0.01% 0.15% 0.15%

Mixed - White and Asian 0.07% 0.07% 0.26% 0.36%

Mixed - Other 0.05% 0.07% 0.20% 0.30%

Asian or Asian British - Indian 0.02% 0.01% 1.07% 1.99%

Asian or Asian British - Pakistani 0.02% 0.02% 1.74% 1.37%

Asian or Asian British - Bangladeshi 0% 0.01% 0.39% 0.54%

Asian or Asian British - Other 0.07% 0.03% 0.22% 0.46%

Black or Black British - Black Caribbean 0.02% 0.01% 0.30% 1.08%

Black or Black British - Black African 0.02% 0.01% 0.24% 0.92%

Black or Black British - Other 0% 0.00% 0.08% 0.18%

Chinese or other ethnic group - Chinese 0.04% 0.09% 0.40% 0.44%

Chinese or other ethnic group - Other ethnic group

0.05% 0.03% 0.20% 0.42% Source, 2001 Census, ONS

1.2 National and Regional Economic Policy

The aim of this section is to detail the macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, inflation and national economic growth and the impacts on the housing market. Most obviously this will have an impact on house building and investment on the supply side and household finances on the demand side: “For example, high interest rates makes it more expensive to borrow, thereby reducing demand for housing and affecting employment levels by increasing the cost of investment.” (SHMAV2 pp20-21). This section has been compiled by Cumbria Vision, 2009.

12

Housing and the macro-economy Housing plays a fundamental role in the labour market by providing the places where the workforce lives, however there is no straightforward numeric link between economic change and propensity towards household formation/migration. Nevertheless, a well functioning economy is likely to be one where there is both an appropriate and attractive range of housing to support a thriving and diverse labour market, and where housing provision responds to changes in economic structure and performance. With this in mind, economic strategies and planning policy in the North West and across the UK now routinely highlight the impact that issues such as high prices, inadequate supply and poor quality housing might have on the capacity of an area to attract and retain a viable labour force.

National Context Despite strong economic growth and broad stability since 1994/1995, current economic indications suggest that this position has changed significantly, brought about by high oil, utility and food costs, combined with a continued restriction on the availability of new mortgages brought on by the international „credit crunch‟ stemming from the USA, and the resultant loss of global business confidence. The UK economy has now entered a recession, which could lead to increased levels of unemployment. As at September 2008, predictions are that average house prices will fall by up to 25%, and it will be 2010 before there may be signs of a recovery (Nationwide, September 2008). Other signals within the UK economy show that manufacturing output is declining as a further sign that the UK economy is entering a recession. Recent news headlines would suggest that, with developers reducing staffing levels, the more alarming effects of the credit crunch, such as widespread job losses and large falls in land value are already being felt by the house building industry. With the recession it is likely that there would be further reductions in demand for housing, with resultant falls in house prices, until such time as a new equilibrium is reached between demand and supply and stability is achieved in the international markets. However, aside from the lending practices of major lenders, the underlying reasons behind the high house price inflation in recent years, is the fact that there has been insufficient housing provision to meet needs across the UK. Some economists predict that once the economy picks up again, there could be a further surge in house price inflation, which may be as serious as had been experienced in recent years. There is a need therefore to continue to build new houses in order to respond to underlying housing needs.

Monetary Policy Interest rates reflect the effective cost of borrowing money and in the UK the base interest rate is set by the Bank of England‟s, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The Bank usually sets interest rates in order to try and meet an inflation target which is based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) being equal to 2.0% ± 1. If inflation is forecast to rise above the target, the Bank is likely to raise interest rates in order to reduce spending in the economy, and therefore moderate inflationary pressures. Following some significant price rises in the food and energy sectors over the last year, the CPI has soared above its target value peaking, in September, at 5.2%. However the CPI has now begun to fall back with the most recent data for January showing inflation at 3.1% (still well above the target value). Due largely to a recent fall in oil prices related to falling demand linked to declines in global production levels, inflation is currently expected to fall rapidly over the coming months.

13

Rather than responding impulsively in the short term, the Bank‟s overarching aim is to ensure inflation returns to target in the medium to long term. Thus principally as a result of the MPC‟s forecast that the currently high level of inflation is a temporary phenomenon, interest rates have remained low and below the 10 year average of 5.2%. Unsurprisingly, there are also a number of other factors which play an important role in the balancing act between inflation and interest rates such as consumer confidence; time lags between rate changes and their effects on demand; the differential between the two rates and the ratio of fixed rate vs. variable rate mortgages (and in particular the proportion of sub-prime mortgages, where borrowers are paying a high proportion of their disposal income on repayments). Responding to the severity of the global economic crisis and to help stimulate the British economy the Bank of England‟s official interest rate has been reduced significantly in recent months. A record monthly decline of 1.5 percentage points from 4.5% to 3.0% in November 2008 followed a 0.5% reduction in the interest rate in October. Subsequent reductions of 1.0% in December, 0.5% in January and a further 0.5% in February 2009 have brought the official Bank of England base rate to 1.0%, the lowest rate in the Bank‟s 315 year history. Financial markets believe the prospect of sharply lower growth and weakening inflation may prompt even further reductions, and some commentators believe the bank rate may drop to as low as 0.5% in the first half of 2009. Figure x below shows how interest rates have fluctuated since the early 1970s. Figure x: Historic Variation in the UK Interest Rate. Interest rates principally affect the housing market in one of two ways:

Mortgage Payments: An increase in interest rates will increase monthly mortgage payments on a variable mortgage. For example, a quarter point rise on a £140,000 mortgage will increase monthly payments by approximately £30.

Demand for Housing: A sustained rise in interest rates will affect the affordability of paying a mortgage. As interest rates rise, buying a house becomes less attractive and therefore demand falls. This can lead to falling house prices. For example, in the late 1980s interest rates rose to 15% causing house prices to collapse in the UK.

North West Regional Context (Source: Northwest Regional Economic Forecasting Panel, Spring 2008) The recent history of the regional economy includes a period of:

Very rapid jobs growth, especially between 2001 and 2004. This may be exceptional and unlikely to be seen again. It followed marked recent increases in public spending such that a third of the region‟s jobs are now in the public sector; and it also included the out- sourcing of jobs in financial and business services from higher cost places in the South, following a downturn in international financial markets in 2001.

14

Net migration shift, which explain why the region‟s population began to grow again from 2001. This also appears to have been closely related to this exceptional period of growth in job opportunities. While the growth in participation amongst men has remained low, a significant increase of the participation of women in the region‟s labour force appears to have been a further response to this same peak in job opportunities. Nevertheless, the underlying trend in the growth of jobs in the North West has still been running on average around 0.1 percentage points a year below that in the UK.

A fall in productivity, which accompanied the recent peak in jobs growth in the North West. Services now represent the bulk of jobs, and productivity levels in all broad service sectors in the region fell relative to the UK between 1995 and 2005. Also, there is little left of an advantage the region once enjoyed in the productivity stakes because of its once considerable concentration of employment in manufacturing, in which labour productivity, is generally higher than in services.

The relative decline in the region‟s productivity in services is attributed to:

A gradual fall in its price level relative to the UK, which is bound to have had a general effect on relative wages.

A shift in the balance between lower and higher level jobs in favour of the UK, and a widening disparity between earnings in higher-level jobs between London and other major cities, including Manchester and Liverpool. This effect has been particularly marked in top-end jobs in financial and business services, a sector that now provides almost half of GVA in London as against less than a fifth in the North West.

The output gap between the region and the UK has generally grown faster than the North West. The main influence has been the performance of London as a global city and as an international provider of high level services, together with consequential growth in the „super city region‟ around London. Its direct influence now expands into parts of the East Midlands, the West Midlands, and the South West, as well as into Eastern England and much of the South East.

Figure xGVA per head - % difference between North West & UK (current prices) (Source: Regional Accounts & Cambridge Econometrics)

The GVA gap can be explained as follows:

About a quarter reflects labour market differences, mainly lower participation, but also fewer hours worked, and less double jobbing in the North West, despite broadly similar patterns of part-time working.

About a third reflects the fact that employees in the North West earn less for similar kinds of work, interpreted as a reflection of the influence of its lower general price level on wage settlements, a price level that has been falling relative to the UK.

15

The rest reflects an additional gap in earnings because of the nature of jobs in the North West as compared with jobs in the UK. The fact that there are relatively fewer higher-level jobs, and relatively more lower levels jobs, in the North West plays a part, as does the industrial structure in the region with a slight bias towards sectors that tend to generate lower value added per job. But the most important influence here is shown to be comparatively high rewards for higher-level jobs in London and the Wider South East, especially in financial and business services, which now generates nearly half of London‟s GVA.

The expectation that these trends will continue, and that growth rates in GVA and in GVA per head will continue to diverge with the UK and England, has mainly to do with the dynamic effects of economic agglomeration continuing in and around London. It is also expected that national and international business is likely to continue to become more concentrated in London. Generally speaking, a distinction can be drawn between areas of the UK that are directly influenced by London, and others, such as the North West, that are generally further away, and have less well developed links, even if they may host support services for firms based in higher cost places, including the London area. Therefore, although Manchester has developed into the equivalent centre for the North West and has some national and international business, it is on a much smaller scale. Based on projected trends in total and working age populations and likely developments in participation, the effective supply of labour and jobs is expected to continue growing more slowly in the region than in the UK; There is a risk that this expected divergence in jobs growth could be wider than expected, depending on where net immigration is concentrated.

The central forecast of the most likely gap in GVA growth between the North West and the UK over the next twenty years is an average of 0.4 percentage points per annum, or a little more. The results of public policy initiatives are implicit in these trends and the Forecasting Panel think change is unlikely mainly because many programmes are similar to those that have been in place for some time and economic performance seems to have been driven mainly by structural change responding to market forces. This may change if firms and other bodies in the region take increased advantage of strategic opportunities in which the region has strengths (e.g. in nuclear, energy, and environment-related industries), and if we saw public policy concentrating an increased proportion of resources on growth, especially on accommodating and underpinning agglomeration through appropriate policies, such as transport and housing.

It is nonetheless implicit in this view that the North West‟s economy will continue to grow more rapidly than in the 1990s, and also that living standards in the region will continue to improve on average even if the gap in GVA per head is expected to widen. Although the North West‟s growth corridor may flourish, and its influence will spread geographically, especially given effective transport and spatial policies, the corridor is simply different in character and scale, and less of an integrated whole at present, than is London and its surroundings.

Construction and Housing

Since the first quarter of 2007 the rate of increase in house prices in the region has declined, while in the final quarter of the year house price inflation in the UK declined for the first time in two years. Along with a fall in the numbers of housing transactions, this confirmed that the housing market was weakening. The most recent national data to September 2008 shows that the annual rate at which house prices are falling continued to accelerate to hit a new record of 5.1 per cent. However, homes lost only 0.1 per cent of their value during September itself, well down on August's drop of 2.7 per cent.

16

Construction: Growth in 2007 was sustained by private commercial orders Construction orders in the North West increased through the first half of 2007, but have since fallen back. In 2007 private sector new housing orders declined to below 2005 levels. However, the level of infrastructure and other public orders increased. Private industrial orders remained relatively unchanged from 2006; growth in private commercial orders was much more marked in the first half of the year, although they have since fallen back. The value of construction output in 2007 was 12.8% higher than in 2006, due primarily to new public housing and other private sector repair and maintenance. Private commercial and industrial output growth more than offset a decline in infrastructure output. GVA growth in construction was weak in 2006 at 1.0% but is estimated to have strengthened to 2.1% in 2007, although this was weaker than in the UK as a whole. Weaker growth is expected in 2008 (data not yet published); 1.5% for the North West and 1.0% for the UK. GVA is then expected to fall in 2009 in response to the impact of the credit crisis and the weakening housing market, before recovering in 2010 and 2011. House Prices: Inflation weakened through 2007 House price inflation slowed through 2007 despite reductions in interest rates during the year. At the end of 2007, prices were on average 5.0% higher than a year earlier in the North West compared with 9.9% in the UK. Along with slower price inflation since the beginning of 2007, figures (Q2 2007) for the number of transactions show a decline for both the North West and UK. This is consistent with the tightening of monetary policy during 2006/07 and tougher lending standards for mortgages after the recent difficulties in financial markets and points to a slowdown in the market.

Housing Investment: The outlook is for weaker activity in the short term Short-term prospects for housing investment in the region are considerably less favourable than in recent years. The number of new dwellings started declined by 19.0% compared to 6.0% nationally, representing the first decline in four years. Housing starts across all categories (private enterprise, registered social landlords and local authorities) declined by a larger amount in the region than nationally in 2006/07. Potential downside risks to the housing market remain including the current liquidity issues in capital markets and resultant reductions in mortgage packages available on the high street and high levels of consumer debt. There have been sharp falls in housing starts this year with some smaller house builders already in difficulties and large nationally organised concerns scaling back new build. Chart X: Recent development in the housing market

Cumbrian Context

17

“Whilst poor, GVA performance is showing improvement. Time will show how we perform in relation to other sub-regional economies due to the current recession; early indications are that we are not adversely affected …….” The numbers paint a mixed picture for the county depending on the timescale over which we assess change and the geographical area we focus on. The bullet points below identify the key points of relevance:

Over the long term (1995-2006) Cumbria remains the slowest growing of the 37 county-type areas in the UK, with an overall growth rate of 41.2% compared to 66.0% in the Northwest region and 80.0% for the UK as a whole.

Since 2005 Cumbria has grown at around the same rate as the region (5.0% vs 5.2% respectively). Cheshire is fastest growing part of NW at 6.5%

GVA per head in the county now stands at £14,044 compared with £16,482 in the NW and £19,430 in the UK (74% of the UK average – the same index as we have seen every year since 2001)

There is significant disparity between West and East Cumbria. Overall East Cumbria has grown by 51.8% since 1995 compared with 29.0% in West Cumbria, the slowest of any of the 133 sub-county areas in the UK.

Over the latest year (2005-2006) East Cumbria‟s growth rate stands at 5.5% while West Cumbria‟s is 4.4%.

GVA per head in East Cumbria now stands at £15,450 (82% of the UK average) while for West Cumbria it is £12,498 (66% of the UK average).

Figure x: Indexed GVA per head, 1995-2006

87

74

66

82

60

70

80

90

100

110

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Indexed GVA per Head, 1995-2006 (UK=100)

UK

North West

Cumbria

West Cumbria

East Cumbria

General Remarks While the severity of current economic effects is open to interpretation, it is likely that housing areas with stronger, more stable markets will be able to weather the storm more effectively than weaker markets. In Cumbria, if economic growth is to be supported by adequate housing provision (both in terms of quality and quantity); the county will need to supply sufficient new dwellings to meet the needs of in-migrants. However, by increasing the economic activity rates of the indigenous population, the demands placed on housing by economic growth could be lessened with fewer migrants required to sustain the same level of growth. Key Issues: Remote but attractive places, ageing population and strain on support services, reliance on public sector contracts, nuclear and energy industries. The table below shows a number of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats facing Cumbria.

18

Strengths:

Key sectors in nuclear, energy & environmental technologies

High share of self employed compared with regional average

National parks and other attractive places encourage leisure, tourism, outdoor education and wealthy incomers

Concentration of wealth in some parts of South Cumbria

Weaknesses:

Has seen relatively slow growth in GVA and GVA per head

Traditional dependencies on agriculture and on manufacturing (especially in W. Cumbria)

Many places have poor skills and are not well connected to major centers or transport routes

High incidence of worklessness in Barrow & West Cumbria

Opportunities:

Secure maximum benefit from the nuclear agenda

Public sector initiatives for Carlisle, Barrow and the University of Cumbria

South Cumbria could gain from spill over from Manchester

Threats:

High wage levels in nuclear industry on West Coast distort local labour markets

Generally high level of grant expectation in West Cumbria alongside heavy reliance on nuclear industry and failure to reach consensus on nuclear waste

Challenges in maintaining the sustainability of rural communities

Source: North West Development Agency, May 2008

1.3 Employment levels and structure The following looks at the economic situation at both district and housing market area level. The analysis is slightly constrained by the availability of up-to-date lower (ward and HMA) level data. Commuting, travel to work patterns and self-containment A review of data available on migration and travel to work patterns shows wide variations on self-containment across the County, which is reflected within the Eden District. The Regional Strategic Housing Assessment summarises the picture as follows: “In Cumbria, the housing market areas are smaller and this might lead to lower average levels of self-containment. However the picture is more varied. In terms of migration, most of the Cumbria housing market areas have a low level of self-containment reflecting the popularity of the area for retirement or other long distance movement. The exceptions are Barrow, Dalton and Askham and the two West Cumbria housing market areas, which experience much lower levels of migration to and from external areas. In terms of travel to work, these three areas are also very self-contained, but so are Carlisle, Eden Valley and Alston Moor. For Carlisle, Eden Valley and Alston Moor, this may reflect the long distance to other employment centers. The other Cumbria housing market areas are less self-contained in terms of travel to work. “In terms of linkages with other areas, because of its geographic position, Barrow, Dalton and Askham have strong links only with Ulverston/Cartmel. The West Cumbria housing market areas tend to have links with one another, and to some extent with Carlisle. For the remainder of Cumbria, there is a north-south split, with stronger links between Central Lakes, Dales/Rural Kendal and outside the sub region Lancaster, and a separate grouping of Eden Valley, North Lakes, Alston Moor and Carlisle.” (RSHA p32)

19

This self-containment is also present in migration patterns across the county: “Geographical patterns of migration in Cumbria exhibit similar characteristics to that which we might expect; namely, most moves are of short distance and there is an inverse relationship between the magnitude of individual flows and the distance traveled….Of the 814 flows involving Cumbria and/or other parts of the North West, 799 were moves within Cumbria, 6 were from Cumbria to Lancashire, 5 were from Lancashire to Cumbria and 4 were from Greater Manchester to Cumbria. Within Cumbria itself, there is a clear „geometry‟ of migration centred on key locations such as Carlisle, Penrith, Workington and Maryport, Whitehaven, Barrow-in-Furness, Windermere, and Kendal. Overall, the data suggests that there is a high degree of „self-containment‟ whereby these locations function as relatively independent housing market areas.” (Cumbria Economic Bulletin, 2007). Analysis in March 2008 at county and district level tends to confirm “spatially coincident housing and labour market…. with a high degree of home to work trip self-containment” (Stephen Hincks, Cumbria Economic Bulletin, 2008). However the same analysis also showed that Cumbria also has longer distance commuting (i.e. over 30km in length), of which Eden has a relatively high share. This might reflect the fact that some residents in Cumbria need to travel greater distances to access employment opportunities and the connections between Penrith and Carlisle for the Eden District. The picture is clearly varied with higher degrees of migration and travel to work depending on the specific area‟s attractiveness and availability of suitable employment. Further evidence derived from the 2001 Census showed that overall Eden is a net exporter of labour, with 827 more employed residents than workforce compared to Carlisle which is a net importer of labour of 5,801 (Cumbria Economic Bulletin, Sept.2004). This may have policy implications if we wish to look at expanding our economy, cut commuting patterns and encourage people to both live and work in the district. Economic Activity1 Data from 2001 (table xx) showed Eden District to have a higher than county and regional figure for the total working age population economically active and living in the district. While there was a lower percent of employees, there was a much higher percentage of self-employed and the percentage of unemployed was half that of the County and Region.

Looking at economic activity for the HMA shows that this was lower than the District percentage but none-the-less higher than Cumbria and the Region. Within this there were a relatively low level of employees and a high level of self-employment. Unemployment was typical of the District and below that of the County and Region. Conversely there was a very slightly higher level of economical inactivity compared to the District but this was still lower than the County and Region. The area contained the Districts highest percentage of retired people (of working age) and a higher than District level of „Other‟ categories of inactive (looking after a house and those without work who are not actively seeking or available for employment). The number of people permanently sick/disabled or looking after the home was similar to the District and lower than County and Regional levels.

1 „Economic Activity‟ is available up to 2006-07 through the Labour Force Survey at district level only, but the sample is too

low to be accurate, while housing market level data is only available for 2001 and from the Census.

20

Table Economic Activity 2001

Alston Moor

Eden Valley North

Eden Valley South

North Lakes East

Eden District

Cumbria

North West

Working Age Population: All People

1,272 15,500 9,847 3,358 29,977 292,052 4086588

Working Age Population:

Economically Active

Total 961 12,779 7,944 2,774 24,458 225,722 3014218

% 75.6 82.4 80.7 82.6 81.6 77.3 73.8

Employee 602 9,680 5,344 1,839 17,465 174,698 2393573

% 47.3 62.5 54.3 54.8 58.3 59.8 58.6

Self Employed

267 2,353 2,159 788 5,567 32,129 324562

% 21.0 15.2 21.9 23.5 18.6 11.0 7.9

Unemployed 59 363 217 76 715 11,966 173638

% 4.6 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 4.1 4.2

Student 33 383 224 71 711 6,929 122445

% 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.4 3.0

Working Age Population:

Economically Inactive

Total 311 2,721 1,903 584 5,519 66,330 1072370

% 24.4 17.6 19.3 17.4 18.4 22.7 26.2

Retired 43 458 354 118 973 9,386 96801

% 3.4 3.0 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.2 2.4

Student 49 486 275 86 896 9,877 222667

% 3.9 3.1 2.8 2.6 3.0 3.4 5.4

Other 219 1,777 1,274 380 3,650 47,067 752902

% 17.2 11.5 12.9 11.3 12.2 16.1 18.4 Source: 2001 Census. Residence based. NB this covers all people of working age. For males this is 16 –64; for females this is 16-59.

Looking after home; Sick or disabled

Alston Eden Valley North

Eden Valley South

North Lakes East

Eden District

Cumbria North West

All People (aged 16-74)

1,536 18,842 12,041 4,154 36,566 354,183 4,839,669

Looking after home/family

99 6.4 916 4.9 686 5.7 203 4.9 1,906 5.2 20,072 5.7 296,065 6.1

Permanently sick or disabled

103 6.7 758 4.0 480 4.0 138 3.3 1,479 4 22,603 6.4 374,928 7.7

Other 43 2.8 345 1.8 264 2.2 104 2.5 758 2.1 9,671 2.7 160,648 3.3

Source: 2001 Census. Residence based.

Gross Value Added This is only available for East and West Cumbria. For East Cumbria the GVA per head of population has been higher since 1995 than the regional and county average. While this is still only 85% of the UK average (indicating that the area is lagging behind in terms of productivity of the workforce) the area has shown a faster growth in recent years.

Table Gross Value Added per head of population GVA as % of uk average 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

UNITED KINGDOM 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

England 102 102 102 102 102 102 103 103 103 103 102

North West 91 90 90 89 89 89 89 88 88 88 87

Cumbria 93 91 88 84 80 78 76 76 76 76 76

West Cumbria 89 87 85 81 78 74 71 69 68 66 65

East Cumbria 97 95 90 86 83 81 81 81 83 85 85 Source: Cumbria Intelligence Observatory

21

Unemployment and Claimant rates ILO (International Labour Organisation) define „unemployed‟ as all those who were without a job who were able to start work within the next fortnight and had actively looked for work in the last four weeks or had recently found a job and were waiting to start. There is a „natural‟ rate of unemployment that will always occur in an economy, due to job turnover or a mismatch between job skills and job availability. This data is only available from 2001 Census. Claimant rates record the number of people claiming Job Seekers Allowance. This might not, for example, include those that choose to claim or fail to sign for JSA. Table XX above indicated that the unemployment rate in the District was half that of the County rate in 2001 indicating a low number of job seekers unable to find employment. This picture is also mirrored in current claimant counts below (table x and x). This again shows that district rates (0.6%) are less than half that of County for the month of July 2008. Table x also shows this is slightly less than the yearly average, falling from 234 in 2006/07 to 197 2007/08. For Eden Valley South rates are also lower than the County. Figures have remained similar for the last four years, where as other HMAs in the District have seen a slight reduction.

Source: Cumbria Intelligence Observatory

Table JSA Claimant Count (yearly average)

August 2004 - July 2005 (inclusive)




number rate number rate number rate number rate

Alston Moor 21 1.6 18 1.4 19 1.5 16 1.2

Eden Valley North 112 0.7 131 0.8 131 0.8 105 0.7

Eden Valley South 51 0.5 50 0.5 60 0.6 61 0.6

North Lakes - East 15 0.4 11 0.3 24 0.7 15 0.4

District Total 199 210 234 197

Source: Cumbria Intelligence Observatory

Occupation level2 Data on occupation levels are residence based and as such it needs to be borne in mind that this does not necessarily reflect the economy in a particular area. However it can be seen that different groups operate in (and drive) different housing markets and it has been argued that there is a strong association between occupational status and housing markets,

2 ‘Occupation level’ 2006-07 residence based data is available at District level from the Annual Population Survey but only

for HMA level from the 2001 Census.

Table JSA Claimants monthly count July 08

Number Rate

District 187 0.6

Cumbria 4,996 1.7

North West 116,193 2.7

United Kingdom

871,288 2.3

22

principally driven by income (Regeneris, NWRA, 2008). The higher skilled have a greater propensity to be owner occupiers, while the lower skilled and workless are more likely to reside in social housing or private rented sector and have more limited travel to work area and dependence on transport. This will influence the locations people aspire and are able to search for property. Those that can afford higher value property can be more selective about location. Household type will influence preferences for location and type, with families requiring larger properties in urban or rural locations and younger professionals‟ urban locations and smaller flats/apartments. In addition there are links between average earnings and the distance travelled to work, so while higher priced housing may be located in specific areas, there may be a wider radius of commuting choice. Generally speaking the lower the occupational group the greater the affordability issues and the more limited the travel to work areas (TTWAs). However groups may also be forced to widen their TTWAs in order to find affordable housing. In some areas affordability is driving intermediate markets with shared ownership becoming more prevalent. For younger people with lower income occupations there is also a greater inclination to enter the private rented sector. For those in the lowest occupation groups there is a substantial requirement for social rented housing. Affordability is squeezing workers in the lowest occupation groups out of the private market which may in turn create recruitment problems. On the one hand this group has the lowest mobility. However there is some evidence that TTWAs have extended due to a lack of affordable housing near their place of work. Some employers, for example, may need to provide transport for lower skilled employees. For these groups shared ownership may not be an option. The Eden District and Cumbria has a lower proportion of its workforce in overall higher paid levels (professional, managerial and associated technical occupations) than the North West which in turn has less than the British percentage. There is a much higher incidence of skilled occupations, possibly low paid, in Cumbria than the North West and England and this is particularly so in the Eden District. However comparing APS data and 2001 Census data also gives some indication that total overall upper level professions are increasing in Cumbria and the District. Within these upper professions there are differences in growth rates. Since 2001 there has been a District wide reduction in the proportion of manager/senior officer occupation levels from 14% to 10%. This fall in managers/senior officers in Eden does not match the figures for Cumbria and the North West, where this sector has shown an increase, and this could have implications for high value property demand, indicating a slow down in this end of the market for the Eden District. Along side this there has been a reduction in elementary occupations of 8% and a reduction in personal service occupations of 3%. Other occupations have remained the same or risen (typically by 2-3%) with associate professional and technical occupations showing the most significant increase of 7% up to 17%. Eden has outstripped Cumbria and the North West in the proportional rise of these professional/technical occupations at the same time as seeing greater growth in the proportion of skilled trades occupations. Outside Eden there has been a reduction in these skilled trades but less growth in professional/technical occupations (see also Additional Tables, appendix xxx). This means the District now has a very slightly higher than county level of overall higher paid occupations. The District is catching up albeit due to rising associate professional/technical occupations rather than senior occupations, which could nonetheless signal a greater overall degree of mobility; People are able to work greater distances from their homes, and can afford to choose more affluent areas to live, which may

23

also have fuelled house prices. A similar situation exists, for example, in South Lakeland, which has the highest percentage of residents with higher occupation levels and has some of the highest prices properties in Cumbria. Census 2001 data showed that Eden Valley South‟s proportion of residence with higher level occupations was slightly below that of Districts and below that of the County and Region. As with elsewhere in the District there was a predominance of skilled trades occupations. Elementary occupations were at the time similar to the Districts and higher than the Regional percentage. Other occupation levels mirrored the rest of the District and County. What is required is up-to-date data showing whether trends in associate professional and technical and elementary occupations have matched the Districts overall respective increase and decrease. This could indicate improving mobility and growing economic activity since 2001. Occupation needs to be cross referenced with industry of employment and income to give a fuller picture.

Table Occupation level 2006/07 Eden District Cumbria North West Great Britain

% % % %

Managers and senior officials

2,800 10.1 32,600 14.0 429,100 14.0 4,244,800 15.4

Professional occupations 2,400 8.9 23,300 10.0 367,100 12.0 3,611,900 13.1

Associate prof & tech occupations

3

4,600 16.9 26,800 11.5 421,700 13.7 3,948,600 14.3

Administrative and secretarial occupations

2,700 9.9 27,800 11.9 392,200 12.8 3,287,500 11.9

Skilled trades occupations 5,900 21.7 34,400 14.7 320,600 10.4 2,989,500 10.8

Personal service occupations

4

1,100 4.1 19,900 8.5 266,700 8.7 2,227,400 8.1

Sales and customer service occupations

2,200 8.1 16,300 7 253,200 8.2 2,110,500 7.6

Process, plant and machine operatives

3,600 13.4 23,500 10.1 251,900 8.2 1,976,200 7.1

Elementary occupations5 1,900 6.9 27,400 11.8 359,400 11.7 3,157,400 11.4

Total 27,200 100 232,000 100 3,061,900 100 27,553,800 100

Source: Annual Population Survey 2007, ONS

3 Associate professional and technical occupations are diverse. Examples include: science and IT technicians, health

workers (e.g. nurses, dentists, midwives), youth workers, housing officers, police officers, firemen, artists, journalists, photographers, sports coaches, finance advisors, insurance brokers, tax experts, sales reps, estate agents, environmental protection, countryside rangers, public service professionals. 4 Personal service occupations include nurses, ambulance staff, residential wardens, care assistants, educational assistants, veterinary nurses, sports and leisure assistants, tour guides, hairdressers and beauticians, housekeepers, pest control officers and undertakers. For a full definition see ONS Standard Occupation Classification, major group 6. 5 Elementary occupations include agricultural workers (farm, forestry and fishing), construction labourers, dockers, hospital

porters, waiters, bar staff, leisure attendants, refuse, traffic wardens and car park attendants. For a full definition see ONS Standard Occupational classification, major group 9.

24

Table HMA Occupation level 2001

Eden Valley South

% Eden

% Cumbria

% North

West %

ALL PEOPLE 8,139

Managers and senior officials 1,082 13.3 13.6 12.9 13.7

Professional occupations 686 8.4 8.8 9.1 10.5

Associate professional and technical occupations

735 9.0 10.1 11.4 12.8

Administrative and secretarial occupations

708 8.7 9.7 10.5 13.1

Skilled trades occupations 1,807 22.2 19.1 16.3 11.7

Personal service occupations 549 6.7 6.7 7.2 7.6

Sales and customer service Occupations

452 5.6 6.3 7.8 8.3

Process; plant and machine operatives

913 11.2 10.9 10.9 9.8

Elementary occupations 1,207 14.8 14.8 13.9 12.5 Source: 2001 Census, ONS

Industry of Employment6 While occupational levels are helpful in understanding the links between labour markets and housing markets, this can be understood more deeply by looking at the variations within categories. For example managers within the banking and finance sector are likely to have higher incomes than those in the public sector, which in turn influence housing requirements, mobility and housing locations. What is less certain is how much this influences preferences about housing types and specific locations at a local level. Further research is needed in this field. Looking at the main industries of employment in the District, the predominant industry (work based table below) is the distribution/hotel/restaurant industry. This reflects its location near the Lake District National Park, the promotion of tourism and its location to main transport links. This is followed by public administration, education & health. Banking, finance and insurance, the latter, however, being lower than the Cumbrian levels, and considerably more so than at regional and national levels. Figures on Agriculture and Fishing in the area are problematic. The ABI does not include self-employment, and only includes agricultural employees at district level. It does not include farmers who are classed as proprietors and therefore self-employed. We are able to say that for the district there is twice the Cumbrian percentage and four times the regional and national percentage of agricultural employees but not the extent of this industry for housing market areas from this source. Residence based information (table xx) shows the jobs held by people living in the District. The highest proportion is in public administration, closely followed by the distribution/hotel/restaurants. This data also gives an indication of those residents working in agriculture, 3,388, the third largest industry, and it would seem reasonable to assume that many farmers and farm workers don‟t commute from outside the district to get to work and therefore these are also jobs based within the District. At HMA level the predominant industry based in the area is „distribution/hotels/ restaurants‟ which is higher than the District percentage although this has seen a reduction since 2003. The second main industry is public administration/education/ health but this is still below

6 „Industry of Employment‟ is available for both district and HMA from the Annual Business Inquiry but reflects the jobs in the

areas rather than the jobs held by people living there. To obtain employment by place of residence it is necessary to look at the ONS Annual Population Survey.

25

District and County levels. Of note is the increase in construction industries which have doubled since 2003 and are twice percentages outside the District. There has also been a small increase in banking/finance/ insurance sectors although this still lags behind the rest of the District. In terms of the jobs held by residents, the HMA largely follows District patterns with distribution/hotels/restaurants and public administration being highest. Agriculture/ fishing is the third main industry and this HMA has the largest number and percent of residence employed in this industry in the District. At 15% this is far above the Cumbrian and Regional levels. However a greater number of people still work in both the hotel/catering and the public administration industries. The percent of people working in the construction industry is also slightly higher than elsewhere in the District, reflecting the greater number of businesses here. Comparing this with the data on occupation indicates that where there may be managerial/professional levels these may not be in the highest paid sectors, but rather hotel/catering and agriculture management. Also while there was a high level of skilled trades, this includes agriculture workers and chefs/cooks, which are not necessarily the highest paid trades. The high level of agriculture, hotel/catering, added to the high level of self-employment and skilled trades could just as easily indicate a high level of farming, bed and breakfast industries and smaller catering concerns as it could residents in well paid, high powered, highly mobile positions.

26

Table Industry of

Employment: Count and Percentage 2006-7 (work based

7) including 2003

comparator

(Eden Valley South 2003)

Eden Valley South

Eden Valley North

Alston Moor

North Lakes - East

District total

Cumbrian Total

North West

Great Britain

Agriculture and fishing (SIC A,B)

5 7 62 7 17 823 2777 13369 203124

% 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.1 4.1 1.5 0.5 0.9

Energy and water (SIC C,E)

66 71 45 1 62 178 1527 10087 153600

% 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.2 3.9 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.7

Manufacturing (SIC D) 703 602 1416 100 194 2310 35004 362815

2747432

% 13.2 10 12.6 18.4 12.4 11.5 19.4 14.3 12.4

Construction (SIC F) 378 805 1095 31 71 2009 12180 144567

1205704

% 7.1 13.3 9.7 5.7 4.6 10.0 6.8 5.7 5.4

Distribution, hotels and restaurants (SIC G,H)

2374 2303 3183 110 668 6272 47699 550019 479859

6

% 44.5 38.2 28.3 20.2 42.9 31.2 26.4 21.6 21.6

Transport and communications (SIC I)

436 535 735 39 48 1358 10128 169057 143963

8

% 8.2 8.9 6.5 7.2 3.1 6.7 5.6 6.6 6.5

Banking, finance and insurance, etc (SIC J,K)

274 518 1416 60 155 2139 22833 516287 496224

1

% 5.1 8.6 12.6 11 10 10.6 12.7 20.3 22.3

Public administration, education & health (SIC L,M,N)

946 1031 2939 169 165 4299 40356 665542 560299

7

% 17.7 17.1 26.1 30.9 10.6 21.4 22.4 26.2 25.2

Other services (SIC O,P,Q)8

154 160 374 29 180 747 7853 111353 110855

8

% 2.9 2.6 3.3 5.2 11.5 3.7 4.4 4.4 5.0

TOTALS 5,334 6,030 11,263 545 1,557 20134 180356 2543095

22221887

Source: ABI Analysis, 2006-07. Work based.

7 Data does not include self employment. Data only includes agricultural employees at district (added together to give a County

figure) and will leave out farmers counted as self-employed, which accounts for the seemingly low figure for this industry given Cumbria‟s rural nature. 8 „Other services‟ include: other community, social and personal service activities (e.g. sewage, cultural/sporting activities, dry

cleaning, hairdressing); Private households with employed persons (maids, gardeners, caretakers, babysitters, private secretaries); And extraterritorial organisations.

27

Table Industry of

Employment: Count and Percentage Jan 07-Dec 07

(residence based)

Alston Moor

Eden Valley North

Eden Valley South

North Lakes East

District total

Cumbrian Total

North West

Agriculture and fishing (SIC A,B)

112 1318 1486 472 3388 12600 37,200

% 10.6 9.3 16.5 14.9 12.4 5.3 1.2

Energy and water (SIC C,E)

18 127 112 63 321 3500 27,800

% 1.7 0.9 1.3 2.0 1.2 1.5 0.9

Manufacturing (SIC D) 126 1421 856 258 2661 42200 445,000

% 11.9 10.1 9.5 8.2 9.7 17.7 14.6

Construction (SIC F) 82 1059 756 228 2125 17600 234,700

% 7.8 7.5 8.4 7.2 7.8 7.4 7.7


199 3448 2048 763 6458 52600 586,200

% 18.8 24.4 22.8 24.2 23.6 22.0 19.3

Transport and communications (SIC I)

64 1000 624 158 1846 13300 212,600

% 6.0 7.1 6.9 5.0 6.8 5.6 7.0

Banking, finance and insurance, etc (SIC J,K)

68 1062 615 196 1941 17300 427,900

% 6.5 7.5 6.8 6.2 7.1 7.2 14.1

Public administration, education & health (SIC L,M,N)

282 3533 1959 701 6475 61700 898,400

% 26.7 25.0 21.8 22.2 23.7 25.8 29.5

Other services (SIC O,P,Q)

104 1159 541 321 2124 18200 161,100

% 9.8 8.2 6.0 10.1 7.8 7.6 5.3

TOTALS 1056 14126 8997 3160 27339 239000 3,042,200 Source: ONS Annual Population Survey. Data apportioned to HMA level on the basis of 2001 census-based ward distributions.

Qualifications Data on qualifications has been taken from the Regional SHMA. This joins Eden Valley North and South HMA together. Qualifications in the working population usually tend to mirror the occupational structure. The national average (not shown) for the proportion with NVQ level 4 and above is 27% and no qualification is 14%. Hence the North West with lower numbers of professional and managerial workers has a lower percentage of the working population qualified to NVQ level 4 (25%). Similarly Eden District has a lower number employed in these professions and this is reflected in the lower number of higher qualifications. However Eden also has fewer elementary and greater skilled occupations and this is perhaps why more of the working population are at least qualified to NVQ level 1 or have another qualification than the regional percentage. The Eden Valley follows the Districts occupational and therefore qualification levels closely. Table NVQ Qualifications

9

NVQ4 & above

(%)

NVQ3 & above

(%)

NVQ2 & above

(%)

NVQ1 & above

(%)

Other qual %

No qual %

North West 24.8 43.7 63.6 78.3 5.8 15.8

Eden District 23.8 46.9 65.6 81.0 8.5 10.6

Alston Moor 24.0 46.7 65.5 80.9 8.6 10.5

Eden Valley 24.0 46.7 65.5 80.9 8.6 10.5

North Lakes 25.7 45.7 63.7 86.5 7.4 6.0 Source: NW Regional SHMA, Nevin Leather Associates, 2008

9 National Vocational Qualifications (NVQs) are work-based qualifications that assess the skills and knowledge people need to

perform their job role effectively. The qualifications define what employees, or potential employees, must be able to do and know, how well they must do these things, and the circumstances in which they have to use the skills or carry out the activities. NVQs are available at five levels, which reflect the range of technical and supervisory skills, knowledge, and experience that employees should have as they progress in their industry. NVQ level 4 is broadly equivalent to Honours Degree level, whilst NVQ level 1 is equivalent to GCSE grades D-G.

28

Labour supply and demand Across the District Skilled trades, personal services and elementary occupations have all had trouble filling posts. This mirrors the Cumbria wide situation. While there is currently a good number of people in skilled posts there is a demand for them. Elementary occupations in particular may face recruitment problems. The main type of industry with unfilled vacancies is the banking/finance and public administration industries. These industries are currently underrepresented in the District compared to the Cumbrian and North West figures. This could indicate training issues or staff retention within the District.

Table Live unfilled vacancies by occupation – Aug 2008

Ma

na

ge

rs &

Se

nio

r O

ffic

ials

Pro

fess

ion

als

As

so

cia

te

Pro

fess

ion

al &

Te

ch

nic

al

Ad

min

istr

ati

ve

Sk

ille

d T

rad

es

Pe

rso

na

l

Se

rvic

es

Sa

les

&

Cu

sto

me

r

Se

rvic

e

Pro

ce

ss

&

Ma

ch

ine

Op

era

tiv

es

Ele

me

nta

ry

To

tal

Cumbria 100 32 233 100 337 378 177 162 507 2,026

Allerdale 12 9 49 8 68 83 18 25 85 357

Barrow in Furness 16 1 17 7 43 16 41 19 74 234

Carlisle 25 8 66 24 46 136 28 65 107 505

Copeland 16 4 15 6 27 11 22 15 49 165

Eden 13 6 12 11 62 74 15 7 65 265

South Lakeland 18 4 74 44 91 58 53 31 127 500

Appleby TTWA 3 0 0 1 1 4 0 0 2 11

Penrith TTWA 10 6 12 10 60 70 15 7 62 252 Source: Cumbria Intelligence Observatory

Table Live unfilled vacancies by industry – Aug 2008

Ag

ric

ult

ure

& F

ish

ing

En

erg

y &

Wa

ter

Ma

nu

factu

ri

ng

Co

ns

tru

cti

o

n

Re

tail,

Ho

tels

&

Re

sta

ura

nts

Tra

ns

po

rt &

Co

mm

s

Ba

nk

ing

,

Fin

an

ce

etc

Pu

blic

Ad

min

istr

ati

on

Oth

er

Se

rvic

es

To

tal

Cumbria 5 61 86 94 465 46 806 406 57 2,026

Allerdale 2 12 24 21 84 14 103 78 19 357

Barrow in Furness 0 12 6 2 83 2 103 23 3 234

Carlisle 0 12 12 24 61 8 232 142 14 505

Copeland 1 11 8 22 28 3 61 28 3 165

Eden 0 13 13 0 34 9 109 81 6 265

South Lakeland 2 1 23 25 175 10 198 54 12 500

Appleby TTWA 0 0 0 0 2 0 9 0 0 11

Penrith TTWA 0 13 12 0 32 9 100 80 6 252 Source: Cumbria Intelligence Observatory

29

1.4 Incomes and earnings10 Government Guidance suggests that incomes and earnings are key drivers of demand. Studies suggest that households spend more on housing as incomes increase, though at a rate less than their growth in income, and as incomes rise demand for neighbourhood quality increases together with house size. In 2005 the median income for Eden District and Cumbria was lower than the National level, and this situation has not improved – in fact the gap has increase with the national levels increasing 4% and district and county 3%. Within this Eden Valley South‟s median income was only slightly lower than the District and higher than Cumbria‟s in 2005 but still lower than the National figure. However at 4.38%, growth has been the highest in the District and higher than County growth; and by 2008 median income has the second highest in the District. Looking at lower quartile incomes (from 2006) growth has been good and are above District and County levels. While the District wide unemployment rate may be low the gross weekly pay is lower than the median for Cumbria, the North West and England, and although the area has experienced increases earnings are still lower by between £22 and £75 per week. Therefore there are more people working in lower paid jobs despite the overall rise in upper occupational levels (see above). Earnings data is not available at HMA level.

Table Median & Lower Quartile Incomes

Median Income Lower Quartile Incomes

2005 2008 % increase

2006 (05 not

available)

2008 % increase

Alston HMA 20,952 22,793 2.93 11,911 14,506 7.26

Eden Valley North 25,347 27,705 3.10 15,828 17,505 3.53

Eden Valley South 24,083 27,250 4.38 14,719 17,259 5.75

North Lakes 25,962 26,678 0.92 15,865 16,873 2.12

District 24,937 27,227 3.06 15,286 17,220 4.22

Cumbria 23,646 25,923 3.21 14,124 16,292 5.12

National 26,000 29,123 4.00

Not available

Not available #

Source: CACI Street Value/ CACI Paycheck supplied by Cumbria County Council

Table Gross weekly median pay by place of

residence 2005-07 2005 2007

Eden Valley South (not available)

- -

District 283.2 305.8

Cumbria 321.5 328.1

North West 334.5 355.8

England 356.7 381.2 Source: ASHE, ONS

10

Information on incomes is derived from CACI Paycheck. This utilises Census data and does not therefore include householders if their property is a second/holiday home. „Income‟ includes income from savings, investments, certain benefits and earnings. Earnings are salary only.

30

Table xx Gross weekly pay by place of residence (mean & median) % change 2005-07

Median Annual Percentage

change

Mean Annual percentage

change

Eden Valley South (not available)

- - - -

Eden 305.8 8.0 371.8 3.4

Cumbria 328.1 -1.3 393.5 2.4

North West 355.8 3.3 423.7 3.3

England 381.2 1.0 432.6 2.1 Source: ASHE, ONS

Deprivation The 2007 Index of Deprivation produced by the CLG gives as a comparable indicator of deprivation in each lower level output area for Cumbria. For our purposes we have named the wards that contain each of these areas. Within the main domains of deprivation „Barriers to housing and services‟ has been identified as ranking low for the Eden area. This is due to the isolation of its rural areas which prevent people accessing services. The indicator is structured into two sub-domains: „geographical barriers‟ and „wider barriers‟ which includes issues relating to access to housing, such as affordability: Sub Domain: Wider Barriers • Household overcrowding • District level rate of acceptances under the homelessness • Difficulty of access to owner-occupation Sub Domain: Geographical Barriers • Road distance to a GP surgery • Road distance to a general store or supermarket • Road distance to a primary school • Road distance to a post office or sub post office

Within the HMA Orton/Tebay, Brough and Kirkby Thore are the three most deprived wards in Eden Valley South, closely followed by Kirkby Stephen. In terms of „barriers to housing and services‟ Brough, Morland and Orton/Tebay score relatively highly in the District.

31

Deprived areas

Barriers to housing & services domain

Ward containing lower level out put area

Cumbria Rank (out of 322, where 1 is most deprived)

Rank within Eden District

(out of 35)

Cumbria Rank (out of 322 where 1 is most deprived)

Rank within Eden District (out of 35)

Alston Moor 136 5 84 22

Eden Valley North

Hartside 166 10 2 2

Hesket 194 17 12 8

Kirkoswald 202 21 17 10

Hesket 189 14 22 12

Langwathby 191 15 28 14

Penrith North 238 27 32 15

Lazonby 258 30 47 18

Eamont 244 29 63 20

Dacre 284 33 73 21

Penrith Pategill 106 2 85 23

Penrith West 151 7 91 24


Penrith South 240 28 135 26

Penrith East 306 35 146 28

Penrith South 102 1 163 29

Penrith West 203 22 173 30

Penrith East 116 3 195 32


Eden Valley South

Brough 148 6 6 5

Morland 213 24 9 6

Orton with Tebay 135 4 10 7

Crosby Ravensworth 192 16 21 11

Warcop 177 12 26 13

Long Marton 199 20 35 16

Kirkby Thore 152 8 43 17

Kirkby Stephen 207 23 51 19

Appleby (Appleby) 223 26 138 27

Appleby (Bongate) 296 34 174 31

Kirkby Stephen 153 9 255 35

North Lakes East

Ullswater 198 19 1 1

Greystoke 197 18 4 3

Skelton 179 13 5 4

Askham 173 11 15 9

Shap 271 32 221 34

Source: Cumbria County Council 2007

32

District Economic Development Team – commentary The Vision for the economy of Eden as contained in the District Councils Economic Development Strategy (launched in June 2006) is that “by 2016 Eden will enjoy a diverse and sustainable economy providing opportunities for employment and continuous business development. By encouraging sustainable practises Eden will maintain a vibrant visitor destination whilst promoting the protection of the environment for future generations”. (Note: The strategy is due for review in 2009.) The vision of sustainability in the District Council Economic Development Strategy is reinforced in the Eden Community Strategy and also the Core Strategy of the Local Development Framework (LDF). Sustainability of the local economy is promoted within these documents as being achievable by concentrating new employment and residential development around „key‟ or „local‟ service centres. Appleby and Kirkby Stephen are two such centres within this HMA. Any new employment or residential developments will be of a scale which is in keeping with the size of existing settlements, which will limit the physical scale of expansion. Employment or residential development outside these areas will only be allowed in special proven circumstances. The scope for attracting inward investment as a contribution towards creating a diverse and stable local economy is always going to be limited outside Penrith by the remote and isolated nature of the area and also the limited access to adequate premises and a sizeable pool of skilled labour. The emphasis for support from economic development practitioners is therefore on accessing financial incentives to help indigenous firms and individuals to create better paid jobs, access training or create new employment opportunities. In recognition of the demographic data featured elsewhere in this document economic development effort is given to addressing the identified weaknesses in the Eden economy of:

Under employment

Exodus of talented young people

Limited public transport

Preponderance of low wage jobs. Key priority areas for the District Council include focusing on the quality and range of jobs and ensuring affordable housing for the workforce. In the case of the Eden Valley South HMA the Councils Economic Development Strategy provides for a range of interventions to improve access to job opportunity and meet the aim to improve the quality and range of jobs. One of the ways the economic development strategy advocates doing this is by supporting community plans. The Upper Eden Community Plan (UECP) was published in July 2008 and has subsequently received an offer of £10,000 from the District Council towards the appointment of a Project Officer whose principal function will be to attract funding to deliver key actions outlined in the Plan. One important aspect the UECP pointed to was the need to identify local employment sites and develop them in such a way as to attract employers offering quality jobs. The creation of a „Delivery Board‟ for Eden and South Lakes by Cumbria Vision will open up new funding routes to promote economic development in rural areas and address the priority issues within the Economic Strategy. A bid is currently being prepared to attract funding which will allow the creation of „master plans‟ for the development of rural employment sites at Appleby and possibly Kirkby Stephen. In addition, a bid is to be made in 2009 by the local 14-19 Partnership to the Learning and Skills Council for funding to create a „Hub and Spoke‟ system of vocational training throughout Eden district. The bid provides for one of the „spokes‟ to be in Appleby and

33

Kirkby Stephen. Links with local employers will be developed to ensure the skills demanded by local employers will have complimentary training provision in the new „spokes‟ at Appleby and Kirkby Stephen. A group of Parishes centred on Appleby are working on a „Heart of Eden‟ Community Plan. It is expected that this community plan will produce aspirations for similar outcomes to the UECP and therefore attract demand for similar economic interventionist actions. Future economic development effort will attempt to utilise the English Rural Development Programme (ERDP) (2007-2013) to maintain support for the actions in the UECP and whatever emerges from the „Heart of Eden‟ Community Plan. It is expected that the ERDP will also open up funding routes from complimentary sources to continue the community planning work and deliver small scale projects. This funding stream may also help to bring forward ideas which improve infrastructure and access to services, making towns more attractive and increasing vitality and viability. Finally, the proximity of the Eden Valley South HMA to the Lake District and the existing tourism in the area presents opportunities to expand activity including the potential to identify an appropriate wet weather attraction. The tourism section of the District Council engages in a comprehensive promotional programme aimed at bringing more visitors to the area and to raise the quality of the offer. The review of the Economic Development Strategy during 2009 will no doubt result in further initiatives throughout Eden

Stage 2: The housing stock 2.1 The dwelling profile Please see Section 5 for number of housing completions

The Eden Valley South covers a diverse area which includes Appleby and Kirkby Stephen market towns and many deep rural locations. The area is popular due to the attractiveness of villages and also its proximity to the Lake District National Park. Consequently there are a range of dwellings that have built up as a result of the differing lifestyles and needs. It does not, however, have quite the range of Eden Valley North, and a higher proportion of larger detached properties. The following highlights some of the main points.

Of note is the higher number of detached properties both within the District and especially this HMA compared to the County and Region. The number of flats and terrace housing is less. This reflects the rural nature of the area.

Compared to the County and Region this HMA has a far greater number of properties with 7 or more rooms11 and fewer smaller ones. This is generally true of the District, but particularly notable here.

High proportion of owner-occupied tenure and high number owned outright: 44% of all dwellings are owned outright and 30% with mortgages, compared to 30% and 39% respectively for the region.

There is a lower percent of social rented stock than the District, an even greater gap when compared to the County, and less than half that of Region.

These differences are made up by greater owner occupation and private rental.

Evidence from the 2006 Housing Needs Survey shows a mixture of people wishing to downsize and others requiring larger properties. However affordability issues hinder the flow of demand and supply. The predominately larger properties on the

11

Allowing for a kitchen, living room, bathroom and possibly separate dining room this means 3-4 bedrooms.

34

market are unaffordable for first time buyers who must then rely on social or privately rented accommodation, however the number of social rented properties is disproportionately low to the population.

Data from the Housing Strategy Statistical Appendix (HSSA) 2008 shows that across the District social rented stock has risen from 2179 to 2295, a 5% increase while private sector (rented and owner occupied) has risen from 19,800 to 22,547, a 13% increase.

A number of shared ownership developments have also taken place in the HMA since the Census. Data available since 2003 shows 37 new shared ownership units completed.

Table Tenure Eden Valley South Count

Eden Valley

South %

Eden % Cumbria% North West %

All Occupied dwellings : TOTAL 6,934

Owned - Owns outright 3,028 43.7 39.6 34.9 29.8

Owned - Owns with a mortgage or loan

2,082 30.0 33.6 36.9 38.9

Owned - Shared ownership 40 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6

Social rented (Council/Housing Association)

480 6.9 9.7 16.0 20.1

Private rented - Private landlord or letting agency

954 13.8 10.9 7.8 7.7

Private rented - Employer of a household member

20 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1

Private rented - Relative or friend of a household member

99 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.6

Private rented - Other 25 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2

Lives rent free12

206 3.0 3.3 2.4 2.1 Source, 2001 Census, ONS

Table Property Type Eden

Valley

South

Count

Eden

Valley

South %

Eden % Cumbria % North

West %

All occupied household spaces 6,943

In an unshared dwelling 6,940 100.0 99.8 99.8 99.8

- House or bungalow - Detached 2,979 42.9 39.3 25.5 18

- House or bungalow - Semi-detached 1,916 27.6 29.6 33 37.4

- House or bungalow - Terraced 1,550 22.3 21.4 31.2 31.4

- Flat, maisonette or apartment 449 6.5 8.9 9.7 12.7

- Caravan, mobile or temporary structure 46 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3

In a shared dwelling: total: 3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 Source: 2001 Census, ONS

12

Living Rent Free: could include households that are living in accommodation other than private rented. The above table has amalgamated local authority and Social Rented as EDC have transferred all their stock to a Housing Association. Local Authority/social rented housing stocks at April 2001, as reported by CIPFA, were generally higher than Census counts. The difference may be partly explained by people on full Housing Benefit ticking „Lives here rent free‟.

35

Table House Size Eden Valley South Count

Eden Valley South %

Eden% Cumbria % North West %

ALL HOUSEHOLDS 6,922

1 room 13 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.5

2 rooms 112 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.8

3 to 4 rooms 1,268 18.3 21.1 25.0 26.9

5 to 6 rooms 3,175 45.9 46.0 51.4 52.1

7 or more rooms13

2,354 34.0 30.7 21.8 18.7 Source: 2001 Census, ONS

2.2 Stock condition

The 2004 Stock Condition Survey found that overall in the Eden District the highest rate of non decent housing is found in the rural areas where 41% of dwellings were found to be non decent compared to 30% generally. This was largely due to thermal efficiency problems relating to the provision of mains gas and solid wall properties. This information is not available at HMA level.

The Stock Condition Survey did not identify which households were „vulnerable‟; this will be included in the next Survey.

Discussions regarding a new Stock Condition Survey are due to begin in 2009.

Information from 2006 Housing Needs Survey indicates that this HMA has 11% dissatisfaction with the state of repairs.

Windows, roofing and dampness are the main items requiring attention.

Inability to afford, „not my responsibility‟ and not able to physically manage are the main reasons that repairs have not been done.

Eden Valley south has 2.1% (148) empty properties (i.e. empty for more than 6 months and not a second or holiday home). Although not the greatest percent of stock (Alston has 2.4% empty) this is the greatest number in the District and appears to be increasing with 38 more properties being registered as empty on April 2008 than on April 2006. This raises questions regarding why they are empty. For example poor condition and lack of finance to improve them, speculation and a reluctance to sell. Further research is needed on this.

Table District Decent Homes

March 2008

Private Sector Social Rented

Number of properties

failing Decency Standards 565 76

Of which homes for

vulnerable people Not known Not known

Source: District House Condition Survey 2004 and HSSA return

13 Allowing for a kitchen, living room, bathroom and possibly a separate dining room this means 3-4 bedrooms or more.

36

Source: EDC Council tax records

2.3 Shared housing & communal establishments Eden Valley South contains the second highest concentration of communal establishments next to Eden Valley North (which has 51). This is likely to be due to a number of residential homes for the elderly. The number of recorded HMOs, however appears very low in comparison to the North which has 392. Collection of data on HMOs is an ongoing task and it is possible that this is an under estimate.

Table Eden Valley South 2001 Census District Records 2008

No. of

people

No. of

dwellings

No. of

people

No. of

dwellings

Communal establishments14

277 36 - -

Houses of multiple Occupation15

- - Not known 9

Source: 2001 Census, ONS; District Council Tax records

Stage 3: The active market

3.1- 3.2 The cost of buying or renting property and affordability This section looks at the current situation in the housing market regarding the cost of buying or renting as one of the indicators of current demand. According to Government Guidance where demand is lower than supply, the prices will fall; where demand is higher than supply, the price will rise. „Affordability‟ looks at what is accessible to local people. 2005 data used mean and median figures for house price and income to indicate demand hotspots or low demand areas and calculate affordability. This update also includes lower quartile figures to give an indication of entry level ratios. A household can be considered able to afford to buy a home if it costs 3.5 times the gross household income for a single earner households or 2.9 times the gross household for dual-income households. A household can be considered able to afford market house renting in cases where the rent payable was up to 25 per cent of their gross household income. Income includes money from earnings, savings and investments, but excludes benefits.

Cost of buying and affordability

To place the HMA‟s in context, data indicates that at District level house prices are substantially higher than the County and National figures. Median prices rose from £186,000

14 A communal establishment is defined as an establishment providing managed residential accommodation. Managed means

full-time or part-time supervision of the accommodation. 15 Authorities are required to license HMO‟s of 3 or more storeys. It does not record HMOs with less than 3 storeys.

Table HMA Empty properties

Eden Valley South: number of properties empty for more than six months

% of properties empty for more than six months

Eden Valley North %

Alston % North Lakes East %

March 2006 110 1.6 1.1 2.1 2.0

March 2008 148 2.1 1.1 2.4 2.1

37

in 2005 to £224,000 in 2008, a 7% annual increase. Cumbrian house prices are on the whole cheaper despite also increasing by 7%. While house prices and income have risen (both mean and median) the ratios have not significantly changed. The District mean for 2005 was 7:1 and the median was 8:1. This is now 7.4x and 8.2x. There is a similar picture for Cumbria with mean and median ratios of 6:1 for 2005 rising very slightly to 6.4x and 6.8x in 2008. Eden is matching the price increase in Cumbria overall, but as incomes are similar to the County and yet house prices greater this gives higher affordability ratios. This situation is particularly bad for first time buyers. Using lower quartile prices as an approximation shows this to be nearly 10x income levels. Looking at the HMA, the mean and median prices are slightly above the Districts and significantly above the County prices and affordability ratios are high. This can be partly explained by the sparse nature of the area, with fewer sales but with larger more expensive properties. The area is also popular due to its proximity to the Lake District National Park but with property prices relatively lower. However this raises the bar for first time buyer as lower quartile prices, seen as an approximation of entry level prices, 10x lower quartile incomes. Comparing this HMA with others, it should be noted that it does not follow that there are greater numbers of people on lower incomes than an area with a higher affordability ratio. This is because Eden Valley South has a far greater population than for example Alston and may contain an equal if not greater number of people within its bottom 25% than the number on Alston‟s lower quartile income. While Alston has a ratio of 10x and Eden Valley South 9.6x, the latter may have greater numbers of people on lower incomes than Alston.

Table House Price/ Household Income 2008

House Prices (£) Income (£)

Mean Median Lower

Quartile Mean Median Lower

quartile

Eden Valley South 236,294 233,000 173,000 31,501 27,250 17,259

District 234,080 224,000 166,000 31,585 27,227 17,220

Cumbria 197,069 177,000 Not known 30,637 25,923 16,292

National Not known Not known Not known 34,884 29,123 Not known Source: CACI Street Value/ CACI Paycheck supplied by Cumbria County Council

Table House prices in Eden Valley South HMA 2005 to 2008

Year Mean (£) Median (£) Lower Quartile (£)

2005 197,591 192,000 141,000

2008 236,294 233,000 173,000

Average annual growth rate 2005-2007% 6.53% 7.12% 7.56%

House prices in Cumbria County, 2005 to 2008

Year Mean (£) Median (£) Lower Quartile (£)

2005 162,647 146,000 88,000

2008 197,069 177,000 Not known

Average annual growth rate 2005-2008% 7.05% 7.07% Not known

House prices to income ratio, 2008

Eden Valley South Cumbria England

Mean house price/mean income 7.5x 6.4x Not known

Median house price/median income 8.6x 6.8x Not known

38

Lower quartile house price/lower quartile income

10x Not known Not known

Source: CACI Street Value/ CACI Paycheck supplied by Cumbria County Council

Cost of renting and affordability Information on private sector renting in the 2006 HMA study was shown as an average. This update now shows the price range and indicates the sometimes wide variance in rentals depending on the desirability and rural/urban location. On the whole when looking at the % of median income spent, private renting is affordable for 1 and 2 bed properties but above the 25% threshold for 3 bed or larger accommodation. Looking at renting from a housing association costs are substantially lower, particularly for the larger properties and all are types are below the 25% threshold of affordability.

39

Table Private and Social sector rents - based on district wide rent figures and HMA median incomes 2008

Private Sector Rents Private sector weekly rents

% of median income (at price mid point)

Housing Association weekly rents

% of HMA median income

Bedsit None on market £53.59 11

1 bed flat £80-100 18 £61.27 13

2 bed flat £112 22 £72.02 14

Terraced House

2 bed £112- 130 24 £78.62 16

3 bed £112 - 150 26 £85.03 17

Semi - Detached

2 bed £112 - 125 23 £78.62 16

3 bed £140 - 150 29 £85.03 17

4 bed £150 30 £102.30 20

Detached House

3 bed £175 - 225 39 £85.03 17

4 bed £175 -250 42 £102.30 20

Bungalow

1 bed None on mkt None on mkt £70.29 14

2 bed £112 - 150 26 £78.34 16

3 bed £140 -200 33 *

Source: Local Estate Agents Source: District Housing Association Rents

Evidence from Estate Agents The following is based on interviews conducted with all estate agents in the District. It is based on the agents own perceptions of the District as a whole. The interviews took place in October 2008 and take into account the effects of the credit crunch. Sales

Following the credit crunch a consensus that the market has slumped with the level of sales worse than in 2007.

Prices have greatly reduced from the early 2000‟s and properties that were taking a week to sell are now taking months. Even if ideally appointed and located can still take 2 months or more. Less desirable properties can take up to and over 2 years to sell.

Some agents are optimistic that the market will pick up in the spring/summer 2009. However they also say there will be further decreases until then.

Agents report lenders are unwilling to give mortgages due to affordability, and others are willing to repossess properties faster as they are less tolerant of arrears.

There are too many large, expensive houses for sale that local people and those working here cannot afford. There is an insufficient supply of property at the lower end of the market.

Family properties with 3 bedrooms and a garden within reach of the town are in demand. 1-2 bed flats or 2-3 bed terraces are sought after by younger single working people. Properties with no chains are particularly popular.

Shared ownership is always in high demand.

However demand is simply dependant on what is available within people‟s price range. Modern housing is generally more popular with younger people. And older homes with older and second home buyers.

First time buyers typically have £100k to spend.

40

People are trying to downsize from very large property and also move from a semi-detached to a detached house. Cottages are popular for retirement.

“Not enough bungalows, not enough low cost family houses for first time buyers, not enough apartments for first time buyers.”

The level of holiday home sales has started to tailor off. Second home owners are still coming mainly from the South and London. Many are willing to spend up to £500k, but recently many are looking for a „bargain‟ between £300-400k.

Town locations are the most popular. However some are forced to move away for lower priced properties.

Many people have to look in areas where property is cheaper, e.g. Carlisle, and commuting each day, but generally people try to live and work in the same area. There is some commuting to Lancaster, Newcastle and Manchester.

Purchasers consider schools as an important factor, which along with sports facilities, countryside, rail and motorway links are all promoted by estate agents when marketing the area.

Demand is more from the local area than outside - interest from outside the area has slowed down. Purchasers are generally older retirees or younger families with children.

There are a greater number of first time buyers seeking accommodation with their partners as couples and families rather than single people seeking flats, and generally seeking at least two beds.

New developments are hindered by the price of land and build costs so that developers can‟t build what‟s really required.

Lettings

The letting market has increased rapidly over the last few months. There has been an increase in motivated sellers needing to move areas but unable to sell their property so they rent them out. One estate agent reported a 10 fold increase since last year. It is now a „renters market‟.

The length of time it take to let a property depends on its desirability – if its in the right location at the right price it can let in days. However it‟s more common to take 2-4 weeks.

It is hard to track how long properties are rented for as agents do not always manage them after letting them but it‟s usually 12-18 months or longer. It is estimated that this will increase due to difficulties in purchasing properties.

Some agents predict that they will become flooded with properties and supply will outstrip demand. Others see the market returning to normal as prices pick up.

Agents say there is an ample supply of smaller 2 bed properties to rent but not enough larger family properties. However some also say that more 1-2 bed terraces or 2 bed flats are required for young professionals. These are all needed in town locations or on the outskirts of town.

Large properties are least desirable as they are more expensive and tend to be in more rural locations. Properties those above shops are also not as in demand as they don‟t have gardens.

Overall there is a variety of people renting in the area, mostly young professionals, single people and families. The perception is that there are few elderly people renting privately but rather they rent from housing associations.

For young people the situation is difficult – most can only just afford to rent but may not get what they want or need. There is an increasing number of joint applications.

Evidence from the 2006 Housing Needs Survey highlighted two of the main reasons for wishing to move as being „wanting a larger property‟ and „wanting a smaller property‟. This underlines the mismatch between supply and demand: larger property exists but is not

41

readily available to local residents who require it. The high cost to local residents, accentuated by second/holiday home ownership, hinders the flow of supply and demand trapping people on the bottom of the housing ladder. Meanwhile those in large property wishing to downsize either maximize their returns by selling to outside the area or prefer to stay where they are for lack of suitable smaller accommodation.

3.3 Overcrowding and under-occupation

On the whole there does not appear to be a problem with overcrowding and over occupancy rates are generally below those of the District, County and Region.

Table Occupancy Rates16

Count %

District % Cumbria

% North

West %

ALL HOUSEHOLDS 6,926

Owned – Not overcrowded 5,049 72.9 72.6 70.9 67.3

Owned – Overcrowded 90 1.3 1.3 1.4 2.0

Rented from council – Not overcrowded 40 0.6 1.1 8.3 12.2

Rented from council – Overcrowded 3 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.3

Other social rented – Not overcrowded 398 5.7 7.7 6.4 5.7

Other social rented – Overcrowded 41 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.8

Private rented or living rent free – Not over crowded

1,232 17.8 15.1 10.6 9.4

Private rented or living rent free – Overcrowded

73 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.3

Source, 2001 Census, ONS

3.4 Vacancies, available supply and turnover by tenure

Table xx below uses data from the largest social housing provider to give an indication of turnover for this tenure in each HMA. Turnover is the percentage of properties relet during the year compared to the total stock.

The highest percent turnover is in four bed houses (50%). However this is perhaps misleading as it represents only one house and it is possible that this is not a true reflection of high turnover for this size property (the sample is too small).

2 bed houses and flats have a higher turnover. In other HMAs these are more popular with 1 bed flats showing greater turnover, likely because of greater mobility and transience of residents in these properties. Families are more likely to stay in 3 bed houses in the longer term, while singles/couples are more likely to move out of 1 bed flats into larger properties to start families.

Here however there are virtually no one bed flats so the higher turnover seems to fall on 2 bed flats and houses here.

There is some turnover in 3 bed houses but this is not extreme and is comparable to those in Eden Valley North.

There is also some turnover in sheltered accommodation. However given our aging population further research could show the average time spent living in sheltered accommodation could be increasing.

In terms of the percentage of empty properties some care needs to be given interpretation here as it is possible that where there are greater numbers of

16 The occupancy rating provides a measure of under-occupancy and overcrowding. It assumes that every household

including one person households requires a minimum of two common rooms (excluding bathrooms) based on an assessment of the relationship between household members, their ages and gender.

42

properties the higher percentage is likely to indicate they are being relet as opposed to long term empty.

Table Access to Social Rented Housing

Household Type Total Stock @ March 08

Turnover % 07/08

%age of empty properties as at 31

st March 2008

1 Bed flat/house 1 0

2 Bed flat 16 2 (12.5%) 1 (6.25%)

2 Bed house 35 6 (17.1%)

3 Bed house 136 9 (6.6%) 1 (0.74%)

4 Bed house 2 1 (50%)

1 Bed bungalow 34 1 (2.9%) 1 (2.94%)

2 Bed bungalow 6 0

3 Bed bungalow 0 0

Sheltered 40 3 (7.5%) 5 (12.50%)

TOTAL 270 22 (8.1%) 8 (2.96%) Source: Registered Social Landlords

Second homes and vacant dwellings

2001 Census data (table XXX below) showed Eden Valley South to have a medium level of second/holiday homes at 7.3%. This compares to 2% for the Eden Valley North area, 9% for Alston and 18.3% for the North Lakes East area. This compared to 3.5% in the County and 0.45% in the Region.

This uses wards which tend to hide lower parish levels which could be even higher.

However there are pockets of high percentages, for example the wards of Ravenstondale (12%), Brough (12%) and Orton/Tebay (11%)

This can be compared with Table XXX below which uses up to date parish data from Council tax. Overall the number of properties vacant or used for second or holiday homes has stayed the same (865 to 862) However within this there has been a shift in use.

While the number of vacant dwellings has halved the number of second homes has gone up. Adding second and holiday homes together to give a direct comparison with the Census shows this to now be 9%, giving a total of 714.

This table also gives information on holiday and second homes separately which has not previously been considered. This shows a split between the two of 26% and 74% respectively. This compares to a split in Eden Valley North of 19/81%, North Lakes East of 33/67% and Alston of 23/77%.

Source, 2001 Census, ONS

Table Second and Vacant Dwellings

Eden Valley South

District Cumbria North West

All household spaces: With residents

6939 88.9% 21143 90.5% 209,027 92% 2,812,789 95%

All household spaces: With no residents: Vacant

297 3.8% 775 3.3% 9,443 4.2% 124,600 4.2%

All household spaces: With no residents: Second residence / holiday accommodation

568 7.3% 1,451 6.2% 7,374 3.5% 12,852 0.45%

43

Table Eden Valley South - Second and Vacant Dwellings

– Council Tax Registrations, March 2008

Total Stock 8609

Holiday Homes17

183

Second Homes 531

Vacant Dwellings (+6 months) 148

Source: District Council Tax Register, 2008

Stage 4: Bringing the evidence together 4.1 Trends and drivers

To some extent Eden Valley South appears less self-contained than its neighbouring HMA in the North. Commuting patterns are wider and industry base is less diverse. There is a high level of car ownership and dependence on public transport as much of the HMA is rurally isolated.

However there is a degree of self-containment around the market towns and the wider travel patterns can be partly explained by the high level of self-employment. There is also more „home working‟ which includes farming. There is evidence that people do both live and work within the HMA radius and analysts point to the relative self-containment in the Eden Valley, perhaps due to the greater distance to other employment centers. The danger point for Eden Valley South is out-migration and the increasing trend of commuting.

Demographically there is a mixture of families, single households, couples and pensioner households although different types are attracted to rural or urban within the HMA. However there are differences compared to the region with greater households with no children and fewer with dependant children.

The area is a popular retirement location and currently a quarter of the population are over 60 indicating shifts in demographics (see Chapter 4 Future housing market).

Past trends in population for the Eden Valley (both North and South HMAs) show this to be rising at approximately 1% per annum.

Economic productivity in Cumbria is lagging behind the North West and UK. For the District and Eden Valley South there is none-the-less a good level of economically active residents and unemployment is low. While activity is very slightly lower than the District this could be explained by the higher level of retirees.

There is a predominance of skilled trades which remain in demand along with elementary occupations, the latter having already faced some recruitment problems.

Industries center on distribution/hotel/ restaurants and public administration/education/ health. Agriculture is significant here. Overall indications are that managerial roles are likely to be in lower paid industries. Notably construction industries have doubled since 2003 – the area may therefore be badly hit as a result of the „credit crunch‟.

There is a low level of higher paid jobs. Banking and finance are particularly under represented in the HMA. There is evidence at District level of unfilled posts due to a number of possible factors – lack of suitably qualified candidates, or more attractive pay elsewhere, but for Eden Valley South there is a reliance on its traditional industry

17

*Business rates are payable on property available to rent for at least 140 days per year. Otherwise owners pay council tax.

44

base. This could leave it vulnerable to external economic forces and commuting out as the willingness of residents to travel for better pay increases. There is already evidence of some long distance travel patterns.

Median incomes are slightly lower than the Districts but growth rates appear to be narrowing the gap and lower quartile incomes have improved.

The overall picture is therefore of lower paid industries, an under-representation of people in well paid roles, who may also choose to commute elsewhere. There is a reliance on skilled occupations and self-employment.

On the whole the area is not deprived but there are pockets of deprivation. Furthermore within the indices some wards score relatively highly on the „barriers to housing and services‟ domain.

Existing private stock suffers from poor thermal insulation, particularly those in rural locations.

Overall the HMA has a higher proportion of detached properties compared to the District, County and Region, higher market housing and low levels of social rented. The area has lacked affordable rent/low cost home ownership in villages to support low paid residents and prevent younger generations moving away. This has been compounded by pockets of second home ownership in villages which are a popular alternative to the Lake District National Park, draining the market of available dwellings for permanent occupation.

There has been some affordable housing development (see also Chapter 5, Stage 2 Affordable Housing Supply) including low cost home ownership but this may not have satisfied the need from those in lower quartile income bands. Current entry level house price to income ratios far exceed the Government guidelines at nearly ten times.

The current „credit crunch‟ appears to have slowed the market down and reduced prices to some extent where owners have to sell. However even with reductions prices are unaffordable. Furthermore those who can do so are tending sit on the current property and wait it out, which also means those in private rent or smaller homes cannot move up.

4.2 Issues for future policy/strategy

The 2006 Housing Market Assessment pointed to a mixture of people wishing to downsize and others requiring larger properties. However affordability issues hinder the flow of demand and supply. This has been accentuated by second home ownership. Housing supply should be directed at ensuring starter homes and move up family accommodation for the population currently living here, employed here, but trapped on the bottom rung of the housing ladder.

Given the reliance on lower level industries and the ongoing demand for elementary and skilled occupations current residents also require bottom rung affordable housing. Estate agent also point to the need for some 2 bed accommodation for rent to younger people.

Economic Development centers on seeking funding routes to support local firms and on improving the range of local jobs by encourage employers offering quality jobs into the area. Along with affordable housing this may encourage people who already live here to also work here and reduce commuting patterns.

Discussion and planning needs to take place with housing providers regarding accommodation for the elderly

45

4. The Future Housing Market This chapter estimates the total number of new dwellings that may be required in the future in response to various scenarios reflecting the scale of housing demand. The scenarios have been generated using POPGROUP, a forecasting tool supplied by the University of Manchester. The analysis is only available down to a district level. The analysis has four stages: Stage 1: Projecting changes in population and future numbers of households Stage 2: Future economic performance Stage 3: Future affordability Stage 4: Bringing the evidence together

Stage 1: Projecting changes in future numbers of households This stage gives projections of population, households and dwellings at a district level. POPGROUP population forecasting software has been used to create all the scenario‟s contained in both this section (population led and dwelling led) and also section 4.4 (labour force led). All these scenarios contain estimates of local information to provide likely scenario‟s for growth into the future. Like all population forecasting outputs, the results are simply a representation of what might happen in the future if various trends are played out as we expect. As a result, they cannot be relied upon as fact, and actual results may end up being significantly different to what the scenarios suggest will happen. This should be kept in mind at all times when using the outputs, and caution should be used when incorporating the outputs into any decision making process. Three types of scenario have been generated for this document:

1. Population Led Scenarios 2. Dwelling Led Scenarios 3. Labour Force Led Scenarios

Within each table below, population, households and dwellings are shown as the level they would be in that particular year (shown in 5 year bands). However the net migration (in migration minus out migration) and net change (births minus deaths plus migration) is shown for the previous 5 years. For example, net migration shown under 2011 is the total net migration experienced over the 5 years 2006-2010. Annualised dwelling figures are shown in the same way, so the annualised dwelling figure shown under 2011 is the annual requirement for each of the years 2006-201018. Finally, an average annualised dwelling requirement has been supplied which shows the average number of dwellings required per year across the full time period 2006-2031. Population/migration led scenarios These scenarios look at what has happened to population in the past, and apply what we think will happen in the future. These scenarios therefore depict what could happen if

18 A ‟dwelling‟ refers to the accommodation itself, for example a house or a flat. A „household‟ refers to the people living

together in that dwelling. The number of households will be smaller than the number of dwellings, as some dwellings are vacant or second homes. A standard district-specific factor is used to convert between the two and this is drawn from the Census data about that district.

46

certain assumptions we have made about population and migration are realised. The predicted figures for households and dwellings represent what would be needed to accommodate the forecasted population growth. Zero Net Migration Shows what might happen if natural change were the only contributing factor to future population trends.

Eden District 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Population 51,701 51,275 50,873 50,748 50,782 50,771

Households 22,594 23,228 23,975 24,810 25,549 26,145

Dwellings 24,938 25,638 26,462 27,385 28,200 28,858

5 Year Net Migration 0 0 0 0 0

5 Year Net Change -426 -402 -125 34 -10

Annualised Migration 0 0 0 0 0

Annualised Change -85 -80 -25 7 -2

Annualised Dwelling Requirement 140 165 184 163 132

Average Annualised Dwelling Requirement 157

5 Year Migration Led Run Shows what might happen if future migration follows past trends.

Eden District 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Population 51,701 52,612 53,742 54,948 56,214 57,438

Households 22,594 23,992 25,584 27,173 28,703 30,173

Dwellings 24,938 26,481 28,238 29,993 31,681 33,304

5 Year Net Migration 1,375 1,660 1,645 1,689 1,745

5 Year Net Change 911 1,129 1,206 1,266 1,224


Annualised Change 182 226 241 253 245



Dwelling Led scenarios These scenarios look at what has happened to the number of dwellings in the past, and apply what we expect to happen to the number of dwellings in the future. These scenarios therefore depict what could happen if certain assumptions we have made about the provision of dwellings are realised. The predicted population and migration figures represent what would be needed to satisfy the assumed dwelling levels. 5 Year Dwelling Led Shows what would happen if net dwelling change remained the same as the last 5 years through to 2031

Eden District 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Population 50,070 49,637 48,992 48,526 48,322 48,261

Households 22,192 22,976 23,741 24,507 25,273 26,038

Dwellings 24,495 25,360 26,205 27,050 27,895 28,740

5 Year Net Migration 84 -4 141 415 624

5 Year Net Change -433 -644 -466 -204 -61

Annualised Migration 17 -1 28 83 125

Annualised Change -87 -129 -93 -41 -12


47


Dwelling Led based on Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) Shows what might happen if net dwelling change followed those laid out in the RSS

Eden District 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Population 50,070 50,201 50,434 50,804 51,411 52,143

Households 22,192 23,207 24,358 25,508 26,659 27,809

Dwellings 24,495 25,615 26,885 28,155 29,425 30,695

5 Year Net Migration 643 823 885 1,121 1,320

5 Year Net Change 131 233 370 607 731


Annualised Change 26 47 74 121 146



All information contained in the above tables should be used as a guide only. It is improbable that any one scenario will be realised exactly. However, by using the information contained in each scenario together is may be used to aid the decision making process. Population projections

Using the 5 year migration led scenario above the overall Eden District population is expected to rise from 51701-57438 between 2006-2031 (PopGroup). This shows an 11% increase.

There will be a massive increase proportionally and absolutely in the elderly population. As a proportion the Districts population aged over 60 will rise from 27% to 47%. The number in the 60+ age ranges will have risen 95% by 2031 (PopGroup). Within this 74-90 year olds show the greatest increase at 202%.

All age groups under 60 are expected to decrease in proportional and numeric terms.

There are implications for service provision and housing demand but also for the economy: the working age population (16-64) are expected to decline from 32,554 to 27,430, (63%-48%) a drop of 15% (PopGroup) unless increased proportions of those aged 65 or more remain in the labour force. This compares to the regional figures of 5% fall (60%-65%).

The 15-29 and 30-49 age groups are most likely to raise children and also bring economic potential.

The Regional SHMA (2008) highlights population differences between Eden‟s HMAs. Alston and the Eden Valley are expected to grow most at 18% (400) and 17% (7,300) respectively. This places them nearly at the top of both the Regional and County HMAs (regional range is 23% down to -0.8%) but only in percentage change, not numerically. Within this the North Lakes area is near bottom of the spectrum at 6% (1600).

However other projections made for the HMAs match those made above for the District. The only exception to this is Alston and Eden Valley which the Regional SHMA identifies as two of only a handful of regional HMAs expected to gain numerically within the 15-29 age range and the only ones in Cumbria. However this means approximately 100 each only. Also this age group is still falling relatively in terms of percentage share of all age ranges.

Otherwise the Eden Valley is predicted to experience a fall proportionately and numerically in the younger age ranges and a doubling in its elderly population.

48

Table District Age range changes 2008-2031

2006 2031 District Count increase/decrease

% increase/decrease

0-4 2,407 2,174 -233 -10

5-14 5,873 4,959 -914 -16

15-29 7,264 6,937 -327 -4

30-44 10,543 8,174 -2,369 -22

45-59 11,831 8,369 -3,462 -29

60-74 9,007 12,389 3,382 38

74-90 4,776 14,435 9,659 202

Total 51,701 57,438 5,737 11 Data supplied by CCC using PopGroup software

District age change 2000-31

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

20002003

20062009

20122015

20182021

20242027

2030

0-4

5-14

15-29

30-44

45-59

60-74

74-90

Data supplied by CCC using PopGroup software

Household projections

PopGroup estimates show an increase in the number of households of 22,594 and 30,173 between 2006-2031. This is a 33% increase and an annual increase of 303. The Regional study (taken from 2006-2032) shows a lower overall annual increase of 277.

As the population is increasing by 11% and households by 33% this indicates a tendency towards smaller households. The Regional study shows this to be the case in all Eden‟s HMAs but particularly the North Lakes. It needs to be borne in mind that these are trends based projections – the propensity to form smaller households may be constrained by lack of smaller properties.

The Regional study looks further at the projected household structure (table XXXX below). This uses slightly different data sources (Experian) and hence gives a slightly different total projection (30,100). However this allows an indication of changes in household structure. Regionally there is a decline in married couple households both numerically and also as a percentage of all households. In Eden there is a slight increase numerically of 500 but a decline as a percentage of all households from 52-42%. One person households, on the other hand, are set to rise significantly in the District by 75% bringing them up to 40% of all households.

Cohabiting couple households also increase by 56% but still only make up 10% of all households. Lone parents remain the lowest of household type rising by only 1% compared to the regional figure of 14 %.

Table xx illustrates these patterns for the Eden Valley and the other HMAs. Note: the „Eden Valley‟ includes North and South and the North Lakes both East and West as defined by the Regional SHMA.

49

Table District Households

projections (Regional SHMA 2008)

Eden District North West

2006 % of all

hlds

2032 % of all

hlds

% change in type

2006 % of all

hlds

2032 % of all

hlds

% change in type

All Households 22900 30100 31 2940300 3559300 21

Married Couple 12000 52 12500 42 4 1250800 43 1150900 32 -8

Cohabitating couple 2000 9 3100 10 56 277500 9 435400 12 57

Lone parent hlds 1000 4 1010 3 1 266000 9 302800 9 14

Other multi-person hlds 1100 5 1600 5 46 189500 6 235000 7 24

One person hlds 6800 30 11900 40 75 956500 33 143500 40 50

Source: North West Regional Strategic Housing Assessment, 2008

Table XXX HMA Household projections (Regional SHMA 2008)

Alston Moor

%+/- of type

Eden Valley

North Lakes

All households 2006 1001 19051 11638

2032 1315 31 25043 31 14100 21

Married couple households 2006 524 9983 5919

2032 545 4 10386 4 5713 -3

Cohabiting couple households 2006 87 1664 9.09

2032 136 56 2596 56 13.85 52

Lone parent households 2006 44 832 678

2032 44 1 838 1 645 -5

Other multi-person households 2006 48 915 584

2032 70 46 1340 46 699 20

One person households 2006 297 5657 3549

2032 519 75 9883 75 5637 59 Source: North West Regional Strategic Housing Assessment, 2008

Stage 2 Future economic performance Stage 2 has been compiled by Cumbria Vision, 2008. Future economic development in the area will be delivered on a cross boundary basis between Eden and South Lakeland and will be overseen by a delivery board comprising of private and public sector representatives. Future Economic Performance Future housing demand will be affected not just by the number of households but by their ability and willingness to pay for housing. The economic performance of an area can influence both the number of households (e.g. through migration) and the willingness and ability to pay for housing (e.g. through income and investment potential). Recent developments in the UK and world economies and financial systems have now undermined many, if not all, of the positive factors which have influenced the strong growth in the housing market since the turn of the century. The UK housing market is experiencing a period of decline with falling or static prices and low turnover, and, in the short term at least, a period of inactivity amongst first time buyers unable to gain access to mortgage finance as a result of the „credit crunch‟. Whilst these factors may ultimately help to improve the problems of affordability in the long term; in the short term they will almost certainly have an impact on new housing completions and, at worst, it is possible to envisage a scenario of

50

falling prices and sharply reduced demand, leading to a significant crisis in the development industry. The following section looks at how future economic performance at a regional, sub-regional and local level may develop and draws upon regional and sub-regional economic forecasts to help show how future housing demand may be influenced by economic performance. Regional Economic Outlook According to the Spring 2008 report from the Northwest Regional Economic Forecasting Panel, GVA is expected to grow more slowly in the North West than nationally by an average of some 0.4 percentage points a year. Thus, if growth in the UK turns out to average 2.7% a year as predicted, the North West should average 2.3% which is still substantially better than GVA growth of 1.8% achieved per annum on average in the region in the 1990s (mainly because the region‟s population and working age population are expected to grow rather than fall, as they did then). GVA per resident head is expected to grow on average over the next twenty years by 1.6 percent a year, as compared with 1.9 percent in the UK. As a result, the gap in the level of GVA per head in the region, which presently stands at around 13.5 percent lower than in the UK, is likely to widen further. Gross Value Added (GVA) growth in construction is estimated to have picked up in 2007 to 2.1%, but in 2008 growth is expected to weaken to 1.5% (data not yet published). GVA in construction is then expected to fall in 2009 before recovering in 2010 and 2011. Cumbrian Economic Outlook to 2016 In conjunction with the North West Regional Development Agency, Cumbria Vision has undertaken a process of economic modelling to determine how the economy of Cumbria may grow during the period to 2016. Using a forecasting model developed by Experian, five scenarios have been developed that are outlined in more detail in 4.2.11, namely:-

1. Scenario 1 – Labour Force Led, No Change 2. Scenario 2 – Labour Force Led, Experian Baseline 3. Scenario 3 – Labour Force Led, Aspirational Growth 4. Scenario 4 – Labour Force Led, Worst Case Scenario 5. Scenario 5 – Migration Led, Labour Force Impact

The three key scenarios are Scenarios 2, 3 and 4 as they illustrate how Cumbria‟s economy may develop over the coming years provided certain conditions are met. Scenario 1 is based on no change which is unlikely to occur and Scenario 5 simply mirrors the Migration Led Run in 4.1.1. In each case the forecast is employment led with each new employment opportunity being filled by a new member to the workforce, in other words the employment growth figures represent net job gains. However it is not possible to accurately determine what proportion of this employment growth represents true incomers to the county that will be requiring homes and what proportion is filled by, for example, a return to employment amongst the indigenous workless population or how much is attributable to the 60-70 age groups remaining in employment for longer. In the case of the latter example, current indications such as a declining working age population and recent falls in the value of pension funds suggest that this factor may be particularly acute in the coming years. It is worth adding a caveat here. Econometric modelling is inherently based upon the observation of past events and the extrapolation of baseline trends from the past into the future. As such, any forecasting model relies upon an accurate baseline from which any scenarios manually inputted by a user subsequently depart. However, due to the fact that the baseline data contained within forecasting models generally lags behind the present by six months to a year, it is extremely difficult in times such as these where economic

51

conditions are changing on a weekly basis, to be completely confident in the validity of the scenario outputs. Unfortunately no systems yet exist which can accurately predict external shocks to the economy and as such the results of this, and indeed any, scenario modelling, should be treated with an element of caution. This is true at any time, but the issue is particularly acute at the moment due to the degree of instability in current macroeconomic conditions. The forecasts provided below must, therefore, be taken with this same element of caution as they are posited upon baseline trends which do not yet take into account the downturn in the UK (and World) economy which began to emerge in 2008 and which is predicted to last well into 2010 or beyond. Within the scenarios a certain amount of artistic license has therefore been taken in an attempt to estimate, on the one hand, the possible outputs of an aspirational vision for employment growth in Cumbria and, on the other hand, the potential effects of the downturn on the economy of Cumbria if the worst were to happen. It must be stressed however that the scenarios have been formed from assumptions based on the collective judgment of a number of individuals and that any semblance to events as they subsequently unfold owes only to the experience of the group of individuals involved in the design of the scenarios. Employment Growth Forecast: The table below shows how total employment and the numbers of full time equivalents (FTEs) may grow over a ten year period from an initial position in 2006 to 2016. Table X: Baseline, Aspirational and Worst Case Scenario Employment Growth, 2006-2016

2006 2011 2016 Change % Change, 2006-2011

Annual % Change

Baseline Total Employment 253,900 258,800 258,900 5,000 1.97 0.20

Aspirational Total Employment 254,400 264,900 280,400 26,000 10.22 1.02

Worst Case Total Employment 253,900 238,500 252,000 -1,900 -0.75 -0.07

Baseline FTEs 206,000 208,500 207,600 1,600 0.78 0.08

Aspirational FTEs 206,400 213,700 225,700 19,300 9.35 0.94

Worst Case FTEs 206,000 192,400 202,300 -3,700 -1.80 -0.18

Under the aspirational scenario “total employment” is expected to grow by 26,000 in the period 2006-2016 which equates to an annual increase of 1.02%. This compares with a baseline employment growth rate of 0.20%. FTE employment is expected to grow by 19,300 or 0.94% annually, suggesting that part time employment will be growing at a slightly faster rate than full time employment. Under the worst case scenario, on the other hand, total employment will fall by 1,900 over the period 2006-2016 which equates to an average of -0.07% annually. However, total employment will fall as low as 238,500 in 2011 which is a fall of 15,400 from the figure in 2006 or an average of -1.21% annually. FTE employment will fall by 13,600 during 2006-2011, but will then increase by 2016 to stand at only 3,700 below the 2006 figure. This indicates that part-time jobs may be shed at a faster rate than full time positions but may then also be created again more quickly once the recovery begins to take effect by 2012. Projected Gross Value Added: Annual GVA growth of 3.30% is forecast under the aspirational growth scenario. Compared with the baseline scenario, the GVA difference in 2016 as a result of this accelerated rate of growth would amount to an additional £1.04bn of GVA. GVA growth under the worst case scenario will be slower than under the baseline scenario at an average of 1.68% over the ten year period, however when splitting the period in two, the growth rate during 2006-2011

52

is markedly slower at 0.61% than that in the recovery period of 2011-2016 where the average annual rate is 2.66%. Table X: Baseline, Aspirational and Worst Case Scenario GVA Growth, 2006-2016

2006 2011 2016 Change % Change, 2006-2016

Annual % Change

Baseline GVA (£million) 6,850 7,510 8,080 1,230 18.0 1.80

Aspirational GVA (£million) 6,870 7,790 9,140 2,270 33.0 3.30

Worst Case GVA (£million) 6,850 7,060 8,000 1,150 16.8 1.68

Economic Outlook – Eden and South Lakeland Eden and South Lakeland enjoy a superb rural environment yet their proximity to the M6, West Coast Mainline and trans-Pennine routes bring significant connections and opportunities to this part of Cumbria. The area is sparsely populated and is characterized by small characterful towns and villages with deeply rural hinterlands. The Lake District National Park and Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty designations complement a very high quality upland and lowland landscape throughout the area. The towns such as Kendal, Ulverston, and Penrith supported by important settlements such as Grange-over-Sands, Milnthorpe, Kirkby Lonsdale, Windermere, Sedbergh, Alston, Appleby-in-Westmorland and Kirkby Stephen make up the key settlements and present a high quality built environment. Future economic development in the area will be delivered on a cross boundary basis and overseen by an Eden and South Lakeland delivery board comprising of private and public sector representatives. The following key opportunities and issues have been identified from the Cumbrian Economic Strategy 2009-2019. Key opportunities

High value manufacturing (sub sea engineering technologies, electronics, etc) particularly in Kendal and Ulverston.

Significant potential to add value to local products – food and drink, forestry and agriculture – production and marketing.

Developing a high quality, world class, yet sustainable local tourism product– accommodation, infrastructure, engagement with the environment, public realm renewal/investment.

Cultural and creative industries – existing strong cluster of world class cultural attractions and organizations.

Knowledge based industry – environmental technologies, renewable energies

Skills and education, including the development of the Cumbria University, together with addressing gaps in HE provision in the East of Cumbria.

The marketing of Cumbria as the UK‟s „Adventure Capital‟ for outdoor and alternative sports aims to attract new visitors to the area.

A new commitment and willingness for collaboration and joint working between local authorities and agencies.

53

Key Issues

Limited supply of sites for modern business premises – addressing constraints and market failure in delivering sites.

Supply of housing sites.

Labour supply issues – tight labour market with low levels of unemployment/worklessness – constraints by education, skills and affordable housing.

A significantly ageing population (much higher than the national average) driven by in-migration of wealthy retirees, which in turn helps drive up house prices making them unattainable to the local population.

A loss of young people from the area due to absence of job opportunity and prohibitive house prices.

High proportion of part-time working, with more than one job in Eden.

High dependency on car travel and difficulties in providing public transport to a largely rural area. Parking is of particular concern in both Kendal and Penrith.

Future sustainability of agriculture and primary production largely dependent on external forces, e.g. raw material prices, EU subsidies, etc…

Despite impressive statistics on business survival, new enterprise rates are low and there are a high proportion of micro businesses with limited potential and aspirations for growth

High proportions of migrant workers, particularly in tourism and food production sectors. This reliance could become a threat to growth if circumstances dictate that the economic gains to migrants working in Cumbria rather than their home countries diminish.

Sustainability of key and local service centres (loss of services)

Rurality of area with pockets of deprivation.

Under-investment – absence of public sector investment in realizing the opportunities that the south and east offer

Future Economic Potential – Eden and South Lakeland The results from Cumbria Vision‟s modelling of future economic performance can also be interrogated at a district level. The tables below show how employment and GVA in Eden and South Lakeland could grow under the baseline, aspirational and worst case scenarios. Table X: Baseline, Aspirational and Worst Case Scenario Employment Growth, 2006-2016

District 2006 2011 2016 Volume Change

% Change, 2006-2016

Annual % Change

Baseline FTEs Eden

24,200 25,200 25,400 1,200 4.96 0.50


54

Worst Case FTEs 24,200 22,500 24,300 100 0.41 0.04

Baseline FTEs South Lakeland

46,000 46,800 46,800 800 1.74 0.17


Worst Case FTEs 46,000 43,900 45,600 -400 -0.87 -0.09

Baseline FTEs Eden & South Lakeland

70,200 72,000 72,200 2,000 2.85 0.28


Worst Case FTEs 70,200 66,400 69,900 -300 -0.43 -0.04

Table X: Baseline, Aspirational and Worst Case Scenario GVA Growth, 2006-2016

District 2006 2011 2016 Volume Change

% Change, 2006-2016

Annual % Change

Baseline GVA (£m)

Eden

688 775 869 181 26.31 2.63

Aspirational GVA (£m) 690 794 945 255 36.96 3.70

Worst Case GVA (£m) 688 689 830 142 20.64 2.06

Baseline GVA (£m) South Lakeland

1,334 1,480 1,638 304 22.79 2.28

Aspirational GVA (£m) 1,337 1,516 1,786 449 33.58 3.36

Worst Case GVA (£m) 1,334 1,406 1,606 272 20.39 2.04

Baseline GVA (£m) Eden & South Lakeland

2,022 2,255 2,507 485 23.99 2.40

Aspirational GVA (£m) 2,027 2,310 2,731 704 34.73 3.47

Worst Case GVA (£m) 2,022 2,095 2,436 414 20.47 2.05

Under the aspirational scenario, growth in employment will amount to an additional 4,800 full-time equivalents in the combined workforce of Eden and South Lakeland. In turn this would generate an additional £220 million GVA over 10 years. Under the worst case scenario there are 2,300 fewer FTEs in Cumbria than the baseline by 2016, however the difference with the baseline would have been as great as 5,600 fewer FTEs in 2011. A number of assumptions underpin the different levels of growth forecast in the aspirational and worst case scenario. The key assumptions are listed in Appendix xxx: The effects of economic forecasts on the housing requirement This section principally draws upon the work in sections 4.1 and 4.2 and incorporates the economic forecasts produced by Cumbria Vision into the population and dwellings based modelling provided by POPGROUP. The scenarios presented below are labour force led scenarios which draw upon what has happened to the number of full time equivalent jobs in the past, and apply what we think could happen in the future provided certain conditions and assumptions are satisfied. The outputs of population, households and dwellings are provided to support the change in the number of jobs over the period of the forecast. As the outputs from one forecasting model (Experian) have been used as the inputs to another (POPGROUP), extra caution should be taken when interpreting the results as they are indicative only and are best understood, therefore, in the hypothetical context: „what would be the population and dwelling requirements if…‟. The assumptions underlying the employment growth (or decline) within each scenario have already been presented in appendix XXX however it is worth repeating the general intention behind each economic scenario:

1. Scenario 1: Labour Force Led, No Change - The first scenario is a control scenario which assumes that no additional jobs are inputted to the model. Accordingly, any fluctuations in employment under this scenario are purely a result of natural and migratory change in the workforce. This scenario uses the labour force as a constraint and forecasts what the population, household and dwellings requirement would need to be to satisfy specified job levels. In this case, it is

55

assumed that the net gain in jobs, year on year, is nil. Prior to 2006 actual population is used as a constraint.

2. Scenario 2: Labour Force Led, Experian Baseline - this scenario takes a purely econometric approach to modelling and projects the future based on historic trends and assumes a „policy-off‟ response. As such, this scenario forecasts a relatively low level of growth. This scenario has been developed by Experian in consultation with regional and sub-regional partners and is held within the Experian forecasting model as the “baseline” scenario. This scenario uses the labour force as a constraint and forecasts what the population, household and dwellings requirement would need to be to satisfy specified job levels. In this case, we have specified a net annual change in number of jobs by district which is based on information from the Experian model baseline forecast provided by Cumbria Vision. Prior to 2006 actual population is used as a constraint.

3. Scenario 3: Labour Force Led, Aspirational Growth - the third scenario includes employment growth assumptions based on local knowledge of committed, proposed and potential future developments and programmes. As such the second scenario paints a more positive picture being responsive to local policies and ambitions and forms the “aspirational” scenario. This scenario has been developed within the sub-region and through consultation with regional partners. This scenario uses the labour force as a constraint and forecasts what the population, household and dwellings requirement would need to be to satisfy specified job levels. In this case, we have specified a net annual change in number of jobs by district which is based on information from the aspirational growth scenario provided by Cumbria Vision. Prior to 2006 actual population is used as a constraint.

1. Scenario 4: Labour Force Led, Worst Case Scenario - the forth scenario attempts to estimate the potential effects of the national and global economic downturn on the Cumbrian economy. A particularly pessimistic view has been taken when devising the assumptions underlining this forecast in an attempt to create a “worst case” scenario. This scenario has been developed within the sub-region. This scenario uses the labour force as a constraint and forecasts what the population, household and dwellings requirement would need to be to satisfy specified job levels. In this case, we have specified a net annual change in number of jobs by district which is based on information from the worst case scenario provided by Cumbria Vision. Prior to 2006 actual population is used as a constraint.

2. Scenario 5: Migration Led, Labour Force Impact - The fifth scenario is the 5 year migration-led run from stage 4.1. The inclusion of this scenario here will help tie these labour force led forecasts to the population and dwelling led forecasts from stage 4.1. This scenario uses population as a constraint and is consistent with the 5 year migration forecast provided in stage 4.1. The scenario shows the number of households and dwellings required to satisfy the growing population.

These scenarios illustrate how Cumbria‟s economy may develop over the coming years provided certain conditions are met. The forecasts are employment led with each new employment opportunity being filled by a new member to the workforce and the employment growth figures representing net job gains. To keep things relatively simple and in recognition of the potential increase in margins of error when transferring the results of one model into the inputs to another, it has been assumed that in all scenarios economic activity (the percentage of people economically active within the working age population) remains constant across the time period modelled. In reality, however, any new job may actually be filled by someone within the indigenous population who has been out of work (thereby increasing economic activity) but who nevertheless already lives within the area and so would not necessarily require a new

56

house. It is therefore recognised that future refinements to the scenarios presented here could forecast what effect a 1 or 2% increase to economic activity may have on the demand for dwellings. It is also worth rehearsing the general caveat already outlined above in section 4.2. Econometric (and demographic) modelling is inherently based upon the observation of past events and the extrapolation of baseline trends from the past into the future. As such, any forecasting model relies upon an accurate baseline from which any scenarios manually inputted by a user subsequently depart. Whereas demographic trends are reasonably predictable from one year to the next; volatility in economic trends are much more difficult to predict. Unfortunately no systems yet exist which can accurately predict external shocks to the economy and as such the results of this, and indeed any, scenario modelling, should be treated with an element of caution. This is true at any time, but the issue is particularly acute at the time of writing due to the degree of instability in the current macroeconomic climate. The forecasts of population and dwelling requirements provided below must, therefore, be taken with this same element of caution as they are posited upon economic trends which do not yet take into account the downturn in the UK (and World) economy which began to emerge in 2008 and which is predicted to last well into 2010 or beyond. Nevertheless, as long term forecasts, the scenarios contribute to any discussion of future housing demand in the county by providing an insight into the possible demand associated with a baseline and aspirational vision for employment growth on the one hand and, on the other, the potential effects on the housing market of the downturn in the Cumbrian and wider economy if the worst were to happen. Scenario 1: Labour Force Led, No Change

Eden District 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Population 51,701 51,567 52,178 52,860 53,203 53,596

Households 22,594 22,910 23,606 24,293 24,900 25,521

Dwellings 24,938 25,287 26,055 26,814 27,483 28,169



Scenario 2: Labour Force Led, Experian Baseline

Eden District 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Population 51,701 51,798 53,474 54,484 54,950 55,654

Households 22,594 23,002 24,130 24,962 25,633 26,392

Dwellings 24,938 25,388 26,633 27,552 28,293 29,131



Scenario 3: Labour Force Led, Aspirational Growth

Eden District 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Population 51,701 51,870 53,819 55,248 56,334 57,948

Households 22,594 23,030 24,268 25,275 26,205 27,348

Dwellings 24,938 25,420 26,786 27,898 28,924 30,186



Scenario 4: Labour Force Led, Worst Case Scenario

Eden District 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Population 51,701 51,798 50,839 50,001 51,262 52,965

Households 22,594 23,002 23,073 23,128 24,076 25,232

57

Dwellings 24,938 25,388 25,466 25,527 26,574 27,849



Scenario 5: Migration Led, Labour Force Impact

Eden District 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Population 51,701 51,930 52,379 52,843 53,288 53,742

Households 22,594 23,054 23,690 24,290 24,937 25,584

Dwellings 24,938 25,446 26,147 26,810 27,524 28,238



The graph below shows the growth in the number of dwellings required by the population under each of the five scenarios above.

Total Dwellings

24

26

28

30

32

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Year of Forecast

Dw

ellin

g (

00

0s

) No Change

Baseline

Aspirational

Worst Case

Population Led

Cumbria-wide Figures. Using the same methodology as outlined above, Cumbria-wide figures have also been produced for each scenario. These are shown in the table below.

Cumbria 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Labour Force Led, No Change

Population 496,151 498,138 505,151 509,417 511,205 514,143

Households 218,447 222,294 228,554 233,795 238,252 242,993

Dwellings 233,627 237,736 244,428 250,033 254,801 259,878

Annualised Dwelling Requirement 2,054 3,346 2,803 2,384 2,539

Average Annualised Dwelling Requirement 2,625

Labour Force Led, Experian Baseline

Population 496,151 499,313 510,382 514,564 515,339 518,516

Households 218,447 222,763 230,663 235,879 239,900 244,716

Dwellings 233,627 238,244 246,701 252,285 256,587 261,749

58



Labour Force Led, Aspirational Growth

Population 496,151 500,176 514,579 523,866 532,191 546,385

Households 218,447 223,118 232,409 239,820 247,126 256,778

Dwellings 233,627 238,623 248,568 256,496 264,309 274,640



Labour Force Led, Worst Case Scenario

Population 496,151 499,313 492,178 483,736 490,678 501,752

Households 218,447 222,763 223,231 223,058 229,381 237,474

Dwellings 233,627 238,244 238,754 238,575 245,338 254,002

Annualised Dwelling Requirement 2,308 255 -89 3,382 4,332


Migration Led, Labour Force Impact

Population 496,151 498,598 501,576 504,704 507,786 510,864

Households 218,447 222,474 227,058 231,773 236,707 241,507

Dwellings 233,627 237,930 242,835 247,877 253,155 258,289



Stage 3: Future affordability The Land Registry Price Index shows an annual decrease of 10.1% as at October 2008 nationally. Local estate agents confirm a downturn in sales and decreasing prices. In Cumbria prices have fallen by 4.7% from April 2007 to October 2008. The graph below shows the downturn in price paid.

Figure xx

(Source: Land Registry)

59

The graph below shows the fall in house prices in Cumbria compared to volume of sales. Many reports indicate that prices are set to fall further next year.

Figure xx

(Source: Land Registry)

Whilst this is good news for purchasers who can access finance it still does not resolve the problem of first time buyers in particular who are having difficulties obtaining mortgages without at least a 20% deposit. Given the relatively low incomes in Cumbria compared to high house prices outlined under Chapter 3 - The Current Housing Market – Affordability, the issues of affordability still remains and whilst house prices have dropped this has not made a significant difference to affordability. Buyers for low cost home ownership products are likely to be affected by the lack of mortgage finance and with 9955 unsold shared ownership properties nationally there is likely to be a local impact (Figure source: Housing Corporation Housing Association Financial Health report). It is therefore, likely that in the short term housing associations will need to use low cost home ownership stock for social and intermediate rent in future. The majority of local parish needs survey undertaken reveal that the majority of need is for rent with a minority of households being able to afford low cost home ownership such as shared equity/ownership.

The table XXX outlines a range of scenarios based upon house prices increasing or decreasing +/- up to 50% until 2016. This illustrates that even with 10% decrease in entry level house prices and a 5% increase in lower quartile incomes the ratio for Eden Valley South is 5.55x. With only a 1% income increase this is 7.88x. Both are beyond Government guidelines on affordability.

60

Table Eden Valley South

Change in House Prices

Lower Quartile House Prices

Annual %

Salary Increase

Lower Quartile Household Income

2007 2016 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

50% increase 160000 240000 1% 16714 16881 17050 17220 17393 17567 17742 17920 18099 18280

20% increase 160000 192000 2% 16714 17048 17389 17737 18092 18454 18823 19199 19583 19975

10% increase 160000 176000 3% 16714 17215 17732 18264 18812 19376 19957 20556 21173 21808

5% increase 160000 168000 4% 16714 17383 18078 18801 19553 20335 21149 21994 22874 23789

Stable 160000 160000 5% 16714 17550 18427 19349 20316 21332 22398 23518 24694 25929

5% decrease 160000 152000

10% decrease 160000 144000

20% decrease 160000 128000

50% decrease 160000 80000

Affordability Matrix

Change in House Prices

2007 Baseline

Annual salary increase to 2016

1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

50% increase 9.57 13.13 12.02 11.01 10.09 9.26

20% increase 9.57 10.50 9.61 8.80 8.07 7.40

10% increase 9.57 9.63 8.81 8.07 7.40 6.79

5% increase 9.57 9.19 8.41 7.70 7.06 6.48

Stable 9.57 8.75 8.01 7.34 6.73 6.17

5% decrease 9.57 8.32 7.61 6.97 6.39 5.86

10% decrease 9.57 7.88 7.21 6.60 6.05 5.55

20% decrease 9.57 7.00 6.41 5.87 5.38 4.94

50% decrease 9.57 4.38 4.01 3.67 3.36 3.09

61

Stage 4: Bringing the evidence together

Across the District there is a projected population increase 11% from 51,701 to

57,438 between 2006 and 2031 and annual dwelling requirement of 309 based on population projections (PopGroup). For Eden Valley South the population is expected to rise by 17%. Based on previous trends this could alter depending on any policy changes.

There is set to be a massive increase in elderly population and decreases for other age groups. There are virtually no increases in 15-29 year old group (approximately 200 spread across Alston and the Eden Valley). This will have implications for service provision including requirements for specialised housing and adaptations.

Households are set to increase by 33%. Taken together with population growth this indicates a tendency towards smaller households. There is proportionate decline in married households, and a rise in cohabiting households and one person households.

Cumbria prices have fallen by 4.7%. However this is not likely to have an impact on affordability. First time buyers are likely to have problems obtaining mortgages.

Housing Associations may need to use low cost home ownership stock for social and intermediate rent. Surveys indicate that the majority of need is going to be for social rent.

Across Cumbria based on historic trends employment is set to grow by 5,000 jobs (or Recent economic performance and the effects of the „credit crunch‟ will effect the willingness to pay for housing and place further pressure on affordable housing supply. There is also expected to be a weakened GVA growth in construction at least in the short term.

The „aspirational‟ growth scenario which forecasts 3000 additional jobs across the District (2006-2016) paints a positive picture. It is based on a number of opportunities and assumptions that need to be met before this employment forecast can be realised.

However there are a number of issues that may undermine this – supply of business and housing sites, an aging population, dependence of agriculture on external forces, and pockets of rural deprivation etc. Supply of labour is an important issue and under Section 3 we found evidence that a skilled workforce may already live here but prefer to commute out of the area. If they were encouraged to work here for better pay rewards this might mitigate the undersupply of labour, but the evidence in Section 4 also highlights the acute decline in the working age population. Affordable housing for younger families is therefore vital to prevent out-migration and achieve sustainable economic growth.

62

5. Housing Need (affordable housing)

The requirement for affordable housing is based on the 2006 Housing Needs Survey. This presents data at Housing Market Area level. For Planning and development purposes further evidence may be required at a lower area level, for example based on parish or settlement needs. This data may be available for local authorities or from Cumbria Rural Housing Trust.

Stage 1 & 2: Updated housing requirements The 2006 Housing Needs Survey gave housing requirements for the next 5 years. Government Guidance suggests that a comprehensive assessment exercise should not be required within this period, but that updating should be undertaken „regularly‟. The table below uses the past trends on household increases derived from the PopGroup analysis to update previous estimates of affordable housing need. The percentage increase in households from 2006 – 2016 based on the „5 year migration led run‟ has been used to give an average annual increase. This has also been applied to the figures for overall demand which will later be used to up date market led housing. The „overall demand‟ figure shows how many respondents to the original 2006 Housing Needs Survey said that they wished to move within five years. Within this a proportion were deemed to be in „unsuitable housing‟ (overcrowded, requiring disabled access etc.) of which some could afford their own housing solution on the open market while others required affordable housing. This stage of the analysis does not include supply side figures as the purpose here is to give an overall gross annual needs figure that can be worked towards before deductions are made for new build or social relets to give a net housing requirement. The update includes new figures for homeless households as these have shown a large decrease from a district annual average of 51 down to 20. The analysis shows the updated gross requirement for affordable housing in the District as a whole as 434 per annum. This represents 40% of total housing demand. Overall of all those wishing to move 49% are deemed to be in unsuitable housing, of which 83% are in need of affordable housing. The overall split between gross affordable need and market led housing demand for the District is 40.5% affordable and 59.5% market led. The analysis is then split down into housing market area using the same methodology. For the Eden Valley South area this shows a gross requirement for affordable housing as 108 units per annum with a split of 34.5% affordable and 65.5% market led housing.

63

Table Updated housing demand, unsuitable housed and affordable housing need

Total (Existing, emerging and h‟holds falling into need)

Popgroup migration run: add 1.32% annual household increase (2006-2011)

Sub-total Plus Homeless based on 3 year average acceptances

Annual total requirements

Overall housing demand (gross)

Alston 35.7 0.5 36.1 1.0 37.1

Eden Valley North 535.8 7.1 542.9 15.0 557.9

Eden Valley South 304.5 4.0 308.5 3.0 311.5

North Lakes East 162.4 2.1 164.5 1.0 165.5

District Total 1038.4 13.7 1052.1 20.0 1072.1

Of which those in unsuitable housing (gross)

Alston 18.3 0.2 18.6 1.0 19.6



North Lakes East 96.3 1.3 97.6 1.0 98.6

District Total 495.5 6.6 502.1 20.0 522.1

Of which require affordable housing need (gross)

Alston 14.8 0.2 15.0 1.0 16.0



North Lakes East 87.0 1.2 88.1 1.0 89.1

District Total (gross) 408.7 5.4 414.1 20.0 434.1

Based on the up dated housing needs survey (and not taking account of the supply side since 2000) the percentage breakdown between market and affordable housing is contained in the following table. This show the split for the District to be 40.5% affordable and 59.5% market led. For Eden Valley South the split is 34.5% affordable and 65.5% market led.

Table Percent split of total new requirements

District Total

District %

Alston EVN EVS NLE

Total demand 1072.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

- Of which in unsuitable housing 522.1 48.7 52.7 47.4 44.8 59.6

- Affordable housing as % of unsuitable housing

434.1 83.2 81.9 83.8 77.1 90.4

Affordable housing as % of overall demand

40.5 43.2 39.7 34.5 53.8

64

Market led (demand minus affordable) 59.5 56.8 60.3 65.5 46.2

Comparisons with household effects of labour force scenarios: The table below uses the same methodology to update the housing needs survey results based on the effects of different labour force scenario growth rates on percentage increases in households. This indicates little long term effect on the requirement for affordable housing. For example based on aspirational growth the affordable housing requirement for the District this is 437 compared to the worst case scenario of 433. For the Eden Valley South area this is 108 under both growth rates. Table xxx Comparisons with labour force scenario growth rates

Total based on Popgroup migration run (1.32%growth pa)

Labour force led run - control - no job increases (1.30% growth pa)

Labour force led run: Experian baseline (1.68% growth pa)

Labour force led run: aspirational Growth (2.10% growth pa)

Labour force led run: worst Case scenario (1.17% growth pa)

Overall housing demand (gross)

Alston 37.1 37.1 37.3 37.4 37.1



North Lakes East 165.5 165.5 166.1 166.8 165.3

District Total 1072.1 1071.8 1075.8 1080.2 1070.5

Of which those in unsuitable housing (gross)

Alston 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.7 19.5



North Lakes East 98.6 98.6 98.9 99.4 98.4

District Total 522.1 522.0 523.9 526.0 521.3

Of which require affordable housing need (gross)

Alston 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.0



North Lakes East 89.1 89.1 89.4 89.8 89.0

District Total (gross) 434.1 434.0 435.6 437.3 433.5

Breaking down the annualised dwelling requirement within Popgroup/Experian models The above analysis uses the original 2006 Survey as a starting point and applies a percentage increase in households to update housing requirements. By comparison the data contained in Chapter 4 stages 1 and 4 used PopGroup and Experian data on actual

65

household formation trends and the effects of job levels as a starting point. It then used modelling techniques to estimate the number of dwellings required as a result of, for example, in-migration and increased industry, to derive an average annualised total dwelling requirement (gross). For example under the „aspirational growth‟ scenario 525 new dwellings were required between 2006-2016 to satisfy industry/employment growth. This does not therefore include those in unsuitable housing „in-situ‟ as the 2006 Housing Need Survey does. However the PopGroup and Experian analysis gives an alternative methodology, gauging the effects of household formation and employment growth on gross dwelling requirements. The Popgroup/Experian data did not include a split between market led and affordable housing but an estimate can be made by applying the percentages derived from the updated 2006 Housing Need Survey results above to the additional household formation from Chapter 4, stage 4, as follows:

This shows, for example, that in the worst case scenario, taking account of the economic downturn, 291 dwellings will be required; 323 dwellings will be required to satisfy household growth if no additional jobs are formed, while at the other end of the scale 525 dwellings will be required to satisfy household growth if the District is able to fulfil all its proposed economic developments.

Popgroup and Experian data are not available at housing market level. Therefore in order to estimate the breakdown into housing market level and estimate the affordable housing and market led housing requirement, percentage increases and splits from the up dated housing needs survey figures above have been applied. Each scenario starts with the assumption of slightly differing household increases and therefore for each scenario the relevant household percentage increase from the updated 2006 housing demand figure for each HMA has been applied (the above analysis used the 5 year migration led run which is the same as scenario 5). The percentage split has then been reapplied to each annualised dwelling requirement to give a „demand‟ figure for each HMA. The percentage for those in unsuitable housing and those requiring affordable housing has then been applied to the „demand‟ figure for

Table District Requirements based on population growth, household formation, and economic forecasts

Average annualised

dwelling requirement 2006 - 2016

Market led estimate based

on updated 2006 HNS

Affordable housing estimate based on updated 2006 HNS

Scenario 1: Labour force led – no change (control)

323 192.2 130.8

Scenario 2: Labour force led – using Experian baseline job levels

419 249.3 169.7

Scenario 3: Labour force led – Aspirational growth

525 312.4 212.6

Scenario 4: Labour force led – worst case scenario

291 173.2 117.8

Scenario 5: Migration led, labour force impact

330 196.4 133.6

66

each HMA. The market led requirement for each HMA will be demand minus the resulting affordable housing need.

Based on this analysis the affordable housing requirement from the number of houses required to satisfy trends in household formation and job trends under the „worst case‟ scenario‟ is 118 per annum for the District rising to 213 under the „aspirational growth scenario‟. This gives a split for the District of 40.5% affordable and 59.5% market led under both these scenario‟s. For the Eden Valley South area this is 29 rising to 53 per annum, giving a split of 34.5% affordable and 65.4% market led under the worst case scenario and 34.5% affordable 65.4% market led under aspirational growth.

PopGroup

migration run/ Labour force led run - control - no job increases

Labour force led run: Experian baseline

Labour force led run: aspirational Growth

Labour force led run: worst Case scenario

Overall housing demand

Alston 11.4 11.2 14.5 18.2 10.1



North Lakes East 51.0 49.9 64.7 81.1 44.9

District Total 330.0 323.0 419.0 525.0 291.0

Those in unsuitable housing

Alston 6.0 5.9 7.6 9.6 5.3



North Lakes East 30.3 29.7 38.5 48.3 26.8

District Total 160.7 157.3 204.0 255.7 141.7

Affordable housing need

Alston 4.9 4.8 6.3 7.8 4.3



North Lakes East 27.4 26.8 34.8 43.6 24.2

District Total 133.6 130.8 169.7 212.6 117.8

67

Stage 3: Affordable housing supply This section collates data from Eden District Council‟s Planning Department on the supply of new housing actual completions and permissions, broken down into market led and affordable housing. Breakdown into tenure within this was not available. In terms of units taken out of supply only „right to buy‟ properties were available.

Permissions and Completions

Market led and affordable housing

Source: EDC Planning Department

Table Total Housing Completions

2008-09@

March 08

2007-08

2006-07

2005-06

2004-05

2003-04

2002-03

2001-02

2000-01

Total Annual Rate

Alston 4 0 6 2 3 2 5

Not Known

Not Known

22 2

Eden Valley North

60 92 79 54 106 76 123 Not

known Not

known 590 66

Eden Valley South

39 52 70 67 61 61 115 Not

Known Not

Known 465 52

North Lakes 2 23 17 12 32 9 16 1* 12* 124 14

TOTAL 105 167 172 135 202 148 259 1 12 1201 133

Source: EDC Planning Department and Lake District National Park Authority *Within the Lake District National Park only.

Affordable Housing only - permissions and completions

EVS Table Development of affordable housing units (HMA)

2008-09@

March 08

2007-08

2006-07

2005-06

2004-05

2003-04

2002-03

2001-02

2000-01

Total Annual Rate

Total number of affordable housing

3 34 13 17 7 10 9 0 4 97 11

Table Total Housing Planning Permissions

2008-09@

March 08

2007-2008

2006-2007

2005-06

2004-05

2003-04

2002-03

2001-02

2000-01

Total Annual Rate

Alston 17 14 3 2 4 6 5 39 4 94 10

Eden Valley North

71 251 40 71 60 75 180 138 140 1026 114

Eden Valley South

48 97 27 29 20 105 140 121 118 705 78

North Lakes 10 12 13 10 27 43 43 26 30 214 24

TOTAL 146 374 83 112 111 229 368 324 292 2039 227

68

units granted planning permission

Affordable Housing as % of total new dwellings granted planning permission

6% 35% 48% 58% 35% 9% 6% 0% 3% 14% 13.8%

Total number of affordable housing units completed

8 3 24 0 3 Not

Known Not

Known Not

Known Not

Known 38

known 4

known

Affordable Housing as % of total new dwellings completed

20% 6% 10% 0 5% Not

Known Not

Known Not

Known Not

Known - -

Source: District Planning Department

Supply of affordable housing (social re-lets and intermediate affordable housing for resale) and current occupiers of affordable housing in need

Table xx Supply of social housing

Average affordable housing supply

Current Occupiers of affordable housing in need (2006 HNS) Total

Alston 11 0 11

Eden Valley North 114 25 139

Eden Valley South 40 7 47

North Lakes East 7 3 10

Total 172 35 207

Affordable housing units taken out of management 2006-2008 Table Demolitions Conversions Total loss

Alston - - 0

Eden Valley North - - 0

Eden Valley South - - 0

North Lakes - East - - 0

TOTAL - - 0

Stage 4: Housing requirements of households in need Government guidance suggests that this stage looks at the requirements of households in need and the choices available which may constrain options. This links in with aspirational demand as a driver of the housing market - pressure can be placed on a certain tenure/size, driving up prices and forcing some to remain in unsuitable housing.

69

In terms of choices available within this area, evidence from preceding chapters indicates the following:

- There is a very high level of detached properties and lower level of flats and terraces. The area is characterised by large properties and outright ownership. However this is not an option to the many of those seeking housing.

- There is a disproportionately low level of social rent, placing pressure on this tenure and in this respect housing options are not as balanced as in the Eden Valley North area.

- There is a mix of people wishing to downsize and others wishing to move up the ladder into larger property but constrained by affordability. This may be compensated for by a slightly larger private rented sector but may also cause a reliance on unsuitable property if family housing for rent is not available.

- Family housing for sale and rent is in high demand, indicating a shortage. - Problems of affordability are compounded by second home ownership, further

depleting the stock of available property. Requirements for affordable housing of different sizes and tenures are contained in the table below. This was based on the standard bedroom allowance and therefore does not necessarily reflect aspirational demand. Decisions regarding the size of future properties also need to bear in mind the likely household formation patterns and the occupational sustainability of, for example, smaller one bed properties for couples who may wish to have a family. The following table gives a percentage split of the breakdown of bedroom allowances for the Eden Valley South area. More details on the bedroom allowances used for the 2006 Housing Needs Survey are at Appendix XX

Table xx size and affordable tenure requirements based on 2006 Housing Needs Survey (HMA)

Household type (see Appendix XX for more details)

Beds %

Affordable housing split%

One individual; couples,

1 56.3 Intermediate

33

Two „other‟ adults; Small families

2 20.5

Larger families 3 20.3 Social rented

67 4+ 2.9

In terms of aspiration, information from the housing needs survey gives some insight into trends and market drivers. This clearly demonstrated that the majority of survey respondents seek 3 bed accommodation.

Table xx aspirational bed requirements

Eden Valley South %

1 2.9

2 34.8

3 49.1

4 11.4

5 1.8

70

Stage 5: Bringing the evidence together This stage uses the information collated in Chapter 5 to calculate the overall net affordable housing requirement and a backlog of requirements. Firstly a net annual requirement has been calculated utilising the 5 year migration led run19 and taking into account supply of social housing. Secondly a back log of need has been calculated using need and housing completions supply figures since 2006. This stage also summarises information on market led housing at the end. Figures on housing need can be compared to the District wide Regional Spatial Strategy target of 239 per year minimum housing completions for all tenures which will therefore fall short of meeting need and demand.

Net affordable housing requirements The table below show the gross housing need in the first column. Supply figures for affordable housing using an average calculation and a figure for current occupiers of affordable housing in need who would free up supply, is then deducted to give a net requirement. The table below shows the net annual District requirement to be 227 per annum. For the Eden Valley South area the net requirement for affordable housing is 60 per annum.

Table xx Net housing requirements Affordable housing need (gross)

Average affordable housing supply - social relets and intermediate housing

Current occupiers of affordable housing in need

Total annual supply of social rented housing

Net annual requirement

Alston 16 11 0 11 6

Eden Valley North

221.4 114 25 139 83

Eden Valley South

107.6 40 7 47 60

North Lakes East

89.1 7 3 10 79

District Total (gross)

434.1 172 35 207 227

19 For this reason the other labour force scenario‟s appear on table XX below rather than here

71

Based on information in stage 4 on bedroom allowances this gives a bedroom breakdown of:

Eden Valley South %: bedroom need

Count: bedroom need

1 56.3 34

2 20.5 12

3 20.3 12

4+ 2.9 2

The table below show the net affordable housing requirement under the various different labour force scenarios. This shows a range for the district of between 227 and 231 with little or no variation at housing market area level. Net affordable housing requirements under different labour force scenarios

Labour force led run - control - no job increases




Alston 6 6 6 6

EVN 82 83 84 82

EVS 60 61 61 60

NLE 79 79 80 79

District Total (gross) 227 229 231 227

Affordable housing: backlog of need Looking at the backlog of need, the net housing requirement for both market and affordable housing has been adjusted to allow for a backlog of requirements. The supply of housing completions since 2006 has then been deducted to give a net backlog figure. Over three years this gives a backlog requirement of 682. Since April 2006 120 affordable homes have been completed. This leaves a net backlog of 562 affordable homes required up until April 2009 in addition to the annual requirement of 227. For the Eden Valley South area the backlog of affordable housing is 146 in addition to the annual requirement of 60 per annum.

72

*Source: EDC Planning Department records

The table below gives the affordable housing backlog based on the different labour force scenarios. This gives a range of between 561 and 572 for the District with again little variation at housing market area level.

Table XXX Backlog of affordable housing requirements under different labour force scenarios

Labour force led run - control - no job increases




Alston 17 17 17 17

EVN 181 184 186 181

EVS 146 147 149 146

NLE 218 219 220 218


Market led housing The gross requirement for market led housing has been calculated by deducting the gross need for affordable housing from overall gross housing demand. However information on the supply of market led housing can only give a rough estimate and does not give information on local occupancy supply. It cannot therefore be used to calculate a comparative percentage for affordable/market led purposes, and therefore remains a gross figure. For the Eden Valley South area this gives a gross requirement of 204 per annum.

Market led housing (gross) Total private relets

Total market led sales

Market led housing (gross)

Alston 21.1 - - 21.1

Eden Valley North 336.5 - - 336.5

Eden Valley South

203.9 - -

203.9

North Lakes East 76.4 - - 76.4

District Total (gross)

638 - -

638

Affordable housing need (Net)

Requirement 06-09

Housing completions*

06-09

Backlog of requirements

Alston 6 17 0 17

Eden Valley North 83 248 66 182

Eden Valley South 60 181 35 146

North Lakes East 79 237 19 218


73

Looking at market led housing 335 new market houses have been completed leaving a backlog figure of 1579 gross for the District and 475 for the housing market area. If data on the supply of market-led housing to local residents is available in the future (theoretically this would include re-sales and turnover in private rental to local residents only) this should be deducted from the gross to give the net backlog figure.

*Source: EDC Planning Department records

Looking at the requirements of those who could afford to meet their own housing needs on the open market there was a similar split to affordable housing requirements with most housing required for single person or couple households. Note: this is based on standard bedroom allowances rather than aspiration: Table xx size of market led housing based on 2006 Housing Needs Survey and bedroom allowances (HMA)

Household type (see Appendix XX for more details)

Beds

Alston Eden Valley North

Eden Valley South

North Lakes East

One individual; couples,

1 76 67 69 68

Two „other‟ adults; Small families

2 0 13 10 11

Larger families 3 0 12 16 14

4+ 24 8 4 7

Key issues for future policy strategy & joining up across the assessment Based on the issues presented in preceding chapter‟s policy responses to the above evidence of need for new housing will need to address issues:

- High need for affordable - Requirement for starter homes and move-up family accommodation to bridge the

mismatch between supply and demand - The rise in single person households - Aspirational housing demand for 3 bed accommodation - Younger persons accommodation to retain them in the area - Rise in elderly population and likely accommodation required

Market led housing: gross and backlog

Requirement 06-09

Housing completions*

06-09

Backlog of requirements

Alston 21.1 63.3 10 53.3

Eden Valley North 336.5 1009.5 165 844.5

Eden Valley South 203.9 611.7 137 474.7

North Lakes East 76.4 229.2 23 206.2


74

- Need to take full account of the availability and suitability of the private market to local residents including vacant dwellings when data is available. Greater intelligence on market data is required.

75

6. Housing Requirements of Specific Household Groups

Supported Housing This covers homes and housing services for people who need help and support to be able to live as independently as possible within the community. Supported housing is concerned with the housing needs of a diverse range of people based on client groups identified in the Supporting People Strategy, but also those who require accommodation with particular facilities. Cumbria as a whole has a shortage of supported and move-on accommodation for many client groups, which means that individuals who are ready to progress to more independent living, perhaps with floating support, are often unable to do so. This in turn prevents supported accommodation from being accessed by other people in housing need. There is also a need for more floating support across the county, both generic and in relation to specific client groups. The provision of housing related support services is increasingly determined by the availability of Supporting People funding. Over the last year the Commissioning Body has agreed a strategy and implemented a review process to ensure resources are targeted and used effectively. Demand for disabled facilities grants continues to grow. This represents one area in which providing additional facilities to people allows them to remain in their own home and makes better use of existing housing stock. Current provision is summarised in the tables below. Supported housing Accommodation based provision (district)

Supply as at 1/4/07

New units opened

Units closed

Net position as at 31/3/08

Older people with support needs 266 52 0 318

Older people with dementia/mental health problems 0 0 0 0

Frail elderly 0 0 0 0

Single homeless with support needs 2 3 2 3

Rough sleepers 0 0 0 0

People with mental health issues 18 6 14 10

People with learning disabilities 3 3 3 3

People with physical or sensory disability 2 2 0 4

People with HIV/AIDS 0 0 0 0

Drug misuse 1 4 1 4

Alcohol misuse 1 4 1 4

Women escaping domestic violence 6 2 6 2

Refugees and asylum seekers 0 0 0 0

Travellers 0 0 0 0

Teenage parents 1 1 1 1

Young people leaving care 1 0 1 0

Young people at risk 2 3 2 3

76

Offenders and those at risk 9 10 8 11

Mentally disordered offenders 0 0 0 0

Homeless families with support needs 2 4 2 4

Supported housing Non-accommodation based provision (district)

Supply as at 1/4/07

New units opened

Units closed

Net position as at 31/3/08

Older people with support needs 206 43 0 249

Older people with dementia/mental health problems 0 0 0 0

Frail elderly 165 0 117 48

Single homeless with support needs 1 0 1 0

Rough sleepers 0 0 0 0

People with mental health issues 13 25 0 38

People with learning disabilities 10 0 6 4

People with physical or sensory disability 0 0 0 0

People with HIV/AIDS 0 0 0 0

Drug misuse 1 7 0 8

Alcohol misuse 0 0 0 0

Women escaping domestic violence 1 5 0 6

Refugees and asylum seekers 0 0 0 0

Travellers 0 0 0 0

Teenage parents 1 0 1 0

Young people leaving care 0 0 0 0

Young people at risk 12 28 0 40

Offenders and those at risk 1 4 0 5

Mentally disordered offenders 0 0 0 0

Homeless families with support needs 7 0 7 0 Source: Supporting People Cumbria) The Cumbria Supporting People „Housing Related Support Needs Analysis‟ (May 2008) identified the following client groups as priorities:

Physical Disabilities/sensory impairment

Complex Needs

Alcohol specific Within this the District Council Priorities have been identified as:

Develop and implement a specialist floating support service.

To work with Social services and other partners to ensure that Disabled Facilities funding is targeted appropriately

Investigate the need for priority to be given to the development of adapted, accessible housing for people with physical disabilities and learning disabilities.

Further investigate housing options for physically disabled people with care needs as alternatives to residential care.

Ensure all housing association homes are built to lifetime home standards and are wheelchair accessible.

Increase security, on a dispersed basis, the development of new adapted housing association homes where need exists.

77

At District level questions have been raised regarding the methodology behind the research, and some conclusions were felt to be inconsistent with local knowledge. Further understanding at district level is therefore required to substantiate these findings. The research covers Supporting People funded supply and there are thought to be charitable organisations providing support outside this framework. A full assessment to identify provision is required. The consultation exercise also raised the need to look at specific client groups such as those with visual impairment, who might have specific needs and where the size, location and design of housing needs to be tailored towards those needs. There is a need to carry out further research into these client-specific issues, in order that needs are not „lost‟ or not identified within wider „disability‟ or „medical need‟ statements (Action for Blind People, SHMA feedback). Older People

The evidence presented in this report emphasises the need to plan for our increasingly aging population. This will have consequences for the level of services and suitable housing provision. There is likely to be an increase in the number of one person pensioner households in part due to the death of a partner but also due to the increase in separation and divorce. Older people may find it more difficult to live independently because they lack the support of a partner and because their income may be lower. This implies that changes in the situations for elderly people will be come more frequent as this group starts to grow. In the past many elderly people sought specialised housing in the social rented sector. However given the high incidence of owner occupation in the Eden District it is likely that peoples needs will differ from the current older generation. This will mean an increasing emphasis on helping people to remain in their own homes in the form of adaptations and support services. With the growth of one person households and of pensioner households within this, there may be a demand for small units. However assumptions regarding the size of accommodation need to be treated with caution as there may be an expectation for larger property to accommodate carers and visitors. There is evidence that older people are disproportionately represented in poor physical housing conditions (Regional Housing Study) and policies to address non-decency standards are therefore required to enable the elderly to remain in their homes in the longer term. Discussions with housing providers need to explore current provision and likely demand and this is an area where more in depth analysis needs to take place. Gypsy and Travellers We specifically need to meet the needs of hard to reach groups and ethnic minorities within the District. Two such groups whose needs are often not met are Gypsies and Travellers. The Council together with Cumbria County Council and the other Districts carried out a Gypsy and Traveller Accommodation Assessment in 2008. This looked at needs in

78

terms of both static and transient sites. This identified the need for 8 extra residential pitches within the District and 35 transit pitches across the County. Detailed proposals and specific policies to address this need will be included as part of the Primary Development Control Policies DPD. Policy CS11 below sets out the criteria for the assessment of any potential site search proposals.

Submission Version Policy CS11 Provision for Gypsies and Travellers Appropriate provision for Gypsies and Travellers will be made by identifying specific sites. The suitability of sites will be tested against the following criteria:

1. Access to schools, shops and other community facilities are within reasonable travelling distance, and can be reached by foot, cycle or public transport.

2. The site is served (or can be served) by adequate water and sewerage connections.

3. The amenity of nearby residents or operations of adjoining land uses would not be materially harmed.

4. The siting and landscaping ensure that any impact upon the character and appearance of the countryside is minimised, and the development can be assimilated into its surroundings.

5. The development would not materially harm the natural or historic environmental assets of the District.

Homelessness There is limited data available at housing market level. While it is possible to break data for presentations and acceptances down by HMA, it is not possible to do so for causes of homelessness. The tables below show cases by District, reasons for homelessness by District and number of cases by HMA. Over all homelessness presentations and acceptances in the District have substantially reduced since the beginning of 2006. Since 2005 the Council has funded a part time Prevention Officer post at Eden Housing Association to provide a first port of call for advice, negotiation with landlords and help securing accommodation in the private sector including the rent deposit scheme. This has meant a reduction in the number of people making applications (presentations) and those to whom the Council has a full duty. At District level the main cause of homelessness is violent breakdown of a relationship; however the actual number of cases has actually reduced from 10 down to 5. Cases where parents are no longer willing to accommodate children have also reduced, reflecting the progress of the preventative measures. The number of presentations and acceptances for Eden Valley South have not reduced as substantially as elsewhere in the District. However the most recent number of acceptances are low at 4.

Table xx Homelessness 2006-2008 (District)

Presentations Acceptances

Jan -Dec 2006 36 18

19 5

79

29 9

23 8

Total 107 40

Jan-Dec 2007 18 9

14 9

26 8

7 4

Total 65 30

Jan-Dec 2008 10 2

19 4

10 5

6 3

Total 45 14 (Source: P1E returns, Eden District Council)

Table xx Reasons for homeless acceptances 2007-08 (District)

2007 % of total

2008 % of total

1. Parents no longer willing or able to accommodate

9 30 1 7

2. Other relatives or friends no longer willing or able to accommodate

1 3 1 7

3. Non-violent breakdown of relationship with partner

2 7 1 7

4. Violence

a. Violent breakdown of relationship, involving partner

10 33 5 36

b. Violent breakdown of relationship involving associated persons

0 0 0 0

c. Racially motivated violence 0 0 0 0

d. Other forms of violence 0 0 0 0

5. Harassment, threats or intimidation

a. Racially motivated harassment 0 0 0 0

b. Other forms of harassment 0 0 0 0

6. Mortgage arrears (repossession or other loss of home)

0 0 0 0

7. Rent arrears on:

a. Local authority or other public sector dwellings

0 0 0 0

b. Registered social landlord or other housing association dwellings

0 0 0 0

c. Private sector dwellings 0 0 0 0

8. Loss of rented or tied accommodation due to:

a. Termination of assured shorthold tenancy 7 23 4 29

b. Reasons other than termination of assured shorthold tenancy

1 3 1 7

9. Required to leave accommodation provided by Home Office as asylum support

0 0 0 0

10. Left an institution or LA care:

a. Left prison/on remand 0 0 0 0

b. Left hospital 0 0 0 0

80

c. Left other institution or LA care 0 0 0 0

11. Other reason for loss of last settled home

a. Left HM-Forces 0 0 0 0

b. Other reason (e.g. homeless in emergency, sleeping rough or in hostel, returned from abroad)

0 0 1 7

12. Total households 30 14

(Source: P1E returns, Eden District Council)

.

April 06-March 07 April 07-March 08 April 08-Mar 09

Presentations Acceptances Presentations Acceptances Presentations Acceptances

Alston 3 2 7 1 0 0

Eden Valley North 55 26 36 15 17 5

Eden Valley South 11 3 6 1 9 4

North Lakes 2 1 2 1 1 1

outside district 5 0 5 3 3 0

Unknown 13 0 0 0 0 0 (Source: Eden District Council)

81

7. Report Conclusions – Bringing the Evidence Together This report has examined recent trends in the Eden Valley South housing market area and placed this in the context of Cumbria and the Eden District. It has looked at possible developments in the market and the effects of economic changes. From this an estimate of housing requirements has been made broken down by size, tenure and type. Further examination of specific groups has also been made. The following brings together the evidence in preceding chapters to draw overall conclusions regarding housing needs that will influence the direction of future policy and strategy. Cumbria is often seen as an affluent area but the local housing market assessments highlight areas of deprivation. While property prices are high and there are high wage earners living here this masks problems of affordability for local resident‟s dependant on local wages. The Regional study points to factors including drivers pushing migration out from larger centres and factors pulling people to more rural areas and it is the most affluent who are moving out. Historically this has certainly been felt within the Eden District housing markets with the in-immigration of more affluent households and retirees choosing to relocate here. The study further characterises the housing markets in Cumbria as follows:

Generally weak local economies expressed through low incomes, except for those people not dependant on the local labour market for resources

An aging population fuelled by out-migration of younger people (caused by lack of higher education institutions, graduate employment opportunities, and affordable housing) and continuing in migration of older retirees/people seeking a high quality lifestyle.

High proportions of second and holiday homes, reducing the size of the effectively available housing stock.

Large social housing waiting lists, and high proportions of concealed households, brought about not only by high demand from those on low incomes but by a very limited supply.

A significant degree of difference between the core and the periphery of the sub-region. The central area has a function based around tourism and retirement migration. The western coastal strip from Barrow, Dalton and Askham to Carlisle is struggling to establish a new economic function following the decline of older mining and manufacturing industries, and contains some areas of intense deprivation. The eastern periphery has high demand from tourism and in migration, but also a significant agricultural sector.

Current trends across the North West point to a continuing fall in house prices which may continue for the next two to three years. In some areas in the Eden District there is clear evidence of some falling house prices. However even with a 10% reduction entry level prices remain unaffordable to people on lower incomes. Furthermore in areas where the property market has been strong and stable in the past, people are reluctant to sell at a reduced value and are tending to „sit out‟ the current economic climate – the picture here is one of a static rather than falling housing market. This may change if people need to sell urgently to move for employment opportunities, but this is unlikely to impact sufficiently on the supply of affordable housing and in the short term the effects of

82

the „credit crunch‟ will impact negatively on people unable to access finance and therefore increase the immediate pressure on the social and private rented stock. There are clear linkages between housing supply and economic development. The economy needs a sufficient workforce in order to grow which in turn needs suitable accommodation. In this sense economic development and housing are mutually supportive. This has the most direct effect on the Penrith area but its effects and implications are felt throughout the District. The economic draw of Penrith and other employment hubs is felt in the Eden Valley South area, with its increasingly wide commuter patterns. On the one hand there is a degree of self-containment around its market towns and wider travel patterns can be partly explained by the high level of self employment. However there is a dependence on its traditional skilled industries and agriculture, low paid sectors which leave businesses vulnerable to external economic forces and tempt people to travel further afield for higher pay rewards. An insufficient workforce in turn limits the potential for economic growth and (especially under current economic conditions) this impacts the most on the lowest income groups for whom commuting may not be an option and who are least able to „ride out‟ any decline - they remain reliant on the local economy and housing market. The current housing market in the Eden Valley South as a whole is characterised by larger properties, higher market housing and low levels of social rented stock. Lack of affordable housing has been compounded by pockets of second home ownership in villages which are a popular alternative to the Lake District National Park. While the effects of any economic development policies and consequent increases in incomes may take time to be felt, in the immediate future affordable housing for people on low incomes wishing to remain in the area and start families is required to discourage further out migration. There is evidence that affordability has hindered the flow of supply and demand, as while larger property exists in the area, and many people wish to downsize, this is out of reach to local people on lower incomes. Housing supply should be directed at ensuring affordable family homes and starter homes for younger people currently living here but trapped on the bottom rung of the housing ladder. Given the evidence on incomes the majority of affordable housing needs to be initially pitched towards social rental but given that many residents are also trapped on the bottom rung of the housing ladder middle level low cost home ownership is required to improve the flow of the housing market. This direction needs to be balanced with the increasing propensity to form smaller, one person households, a nation-wide trend. One conclusion would be a need to focus on one bed units, and certainly given local incomes and the need to retain younger people adequate affordable bottom rung housing needs to be in supply. However there are a number of caveats to this. Firstly trends towards one person households do not necessarily reflect an increase in new households choosing to remain in the area - 15% of current levels of one person households are pensioners and this is set to increase and indications are that there is an out migration of younger households. Should those already in bottom rung housing move up or out this may free up sufficient housing to cater for newly forming households. The effects of increasing supply of middle rung housing therefore need considering before any new development of smaller one bed units. Secondly evidence on demand for one bed units is limited due to the lower level of

83

this stock both for social rent and market led. Any future development of this therefore requires close consultation and interrogation of waiting lists. Furthermore the propensity to form co-habiting households and later families needs consideration. Longer term sustainability is more likely to be achieved by the concentration on two and three bed accommodation that would be more appealing, have greater flexibility for changing life styles and a longer occupation expectancy. Perhaps most significantly the population will age over the next two decades with crucial implications for specialised housing and services. Property that is or can be adapted to enable independent living is required in locations that are accessible. It has been noted above that the rise in one person households is in part due to the aging population. However assumptions regarding the size of units for the elderly needs further evidence as expectations may be for larger two bed properties to accommodate carers and visitors. Given the higher proportion of homes owned outright in the District as a whole it is possible people will be able to afford additional space but discussions with housing providers should begin to explore options. Affordable housing is required to support economic growth measures by enabling people to remain in the area, maintaining the workforce, and which in turn benefits those residents. However younger people and families can only be encouraged to stay if there is accessible employment. It is therefore important to align housing with economic development policies in Eden Valley South and wider District. Further research is needed on:

The level of industries based in rural areas within the HMAs at a more local level.

Further cross analysis on employment structure and incomes – are the skilled trades well or poorly paid?

Needs of young people – further evidence from local surveys regarding demand for affordable one bed units.

Local evidence (village level) on the incidence of holiday/second homes.

The housing and support needs of elderly residents.

Monitoring and updating of the assessment The SHMA Guidance recommends that partnerships undertake a comprehensive assessment no more than every five years but that trends and activities in the market areas should be monitored regularly against policy aims. In addition the information contained in the SHMAs should be updated. This will be carried out in conjunction with Planning departments/authorities. To achieve this aim and provide a framework for updating SHMAs a set of indicators have been developed listed in appendix xxxx. A comprehensive assessment and updated housing needs survey is planned for 2010/11.

84

Bibliography

Cumbria Economic Bulletin, 2007, Cumbria Intelligence Unit.

Regeneris, NWRA, 2008

Penrith Housing Study, Land Use Consultants and Jacqueline Blenkinship, March 2006.

North West Regional Strategic Housing Assessment, (Philip Leather Associates) 4NW, 2008.

85

Appendices

86

Appendix xx SHMA Report Methodology The Housing Needs Survey and consequent 2006 estimates of housing need followed the draft Housing Market Assessment Manual available at the time. This was followed by the Strategic Housing Market Assessment Guidance Version published in 2007. The latest guidance includes the following output and process checklist:

Figure 1.1: Strategic Housing Market Assessment core outputs

1 Estimates of current dwellings in terms of size, type, condition, tenure

2 Analysis of past and current housing market trends, including balance between supply and demand in different housing sectors and price/affordability. Description of key drivers underpinning the housing market

3 Estimate of total future number of households, broken down by age and type where possible

4 Estimate of current number of households in housing need

5 Estimate of future households that will require affordable housing

6 Estimate of future households requiring market housing

7 Estimate of the size of affordable housing required

8 Estimate of household groups who have particular housing requirements eg families, older people, key workers, black and minority ethnic groups, disabled people, young people, etc.

NB. Estimates of household numbers (3, 4, 5 and 6) may be expressed as a number or a range.

Figure 1.2: Strategic Housing Market Assessment process checklist

1 Approach to identifying housing market area(s) is consistent with other approaches to identifying housing market areas within the region

2 Housing market conditions are assessed within the context of the housing market area

3 Involves key stakeholders, including house builders

4 Contains a full technical explanation of the methods employed, with any limitations noted

5 Assumptions, judgements and findings are fully justified and presented in an open and transparent manner

6 Uses and reports upon effective quality control mechanisms

7 Explains how the assessment findings have been monitored and updated (where appropriate) since it was originally undertaken

87

In order to provide a robust methodology and consistent research basis for the Cumbria Housing Strategy, a Data Collection Task Group (now the Research and Information Group of the Cumbria Housing Group) was formed in 2004 consisting of representatives from each District, members of the Northern Housing Consortium and the Cumbria Rural Housing Trust. This Group was tasked with the following:

1) Agree common methodology and data sources to enable following surveys to be undertaken:

Local Housing Assessments to include - local Housing Needs (affordable, general and special needs clients in a

form that also provides evidence for Section 106 agreements - Housing Market and Affordability Assessment - Interventions to balance housing market

2) Review information required and carry out countywide assessments of

Household projections

Demographic Structure and projections

Economic Activity and working patterns 3) Produce and agree terms and definitions 4) Any other work to underpin Cumbria Sub Regional Housing Requirement

or other themed working groups as advised The assessment begun in April 2005, at which point the ODPM issued the Local Housing Assessment: A Practice Guide, Draft, March 2005. A further refined, but still draft Housing Market Assessments: Draft Practice Guidance was issued in December, 2005, and as far as possible was incorporated into the methodology. Following Guidance, Housing Market Areas were identified with regard to functioning housing markets defined as „the geographical area in which a substantial majority of the employed population both live and work and where those moving house without changing employment choose to stay.‟ (Maclennan et al, 1998 Cited in LHA, ODPM 2005). A number of considerations were taken into account including:

Patterns of relocation within local areas and the degree of self-containment

Travel to work patterns and commuting to centres of employment

Areas of high and low demand

Other information such as recent structure plans and local plans

Group discussion on the appropriate boundaries Having established Housing Market Areas an assessment of the local housing system was then undertaken, by analysing secondary and primary information within the following stages:

A. Analysis of local housing system (secondary data)

88

B. Assessing future change in household numbers (secondary data) C. Assessing housing need, including the Housing Needs Survey (secondary

& primary data) D. Bringing together a robust evidence base

These stages are outlined briefly below, and given in more detail in Appendix 1 A. Analysis of local housing system Stage 1: Factors affecting the current housing system

Impact of national and regional economic policy

Demographic structure

Size and structure of local labour force

Local incomes

The cost of buying and renting a property and how this has changed Output

Trends in employment and occupational structure in the local economy over last 10 years

Population and household numbers and household characteristics in their local housing market and how these have changed over the last 10 years

The main trends in local incomes; and

Recent changes in the relative costs of housing in different tenures

Stage 2: Assessing the current stock of housing

Total number of dwellings

Tenure

House size/type

Condition of stock by tenure

Levels of shared housing and communal establishments

Output

the nature of the current stock of housing, by size, type, location and tenure

the location of current housing stock; and

how the stock has adjusted over the last decade Stage 3 Indicators of housing demand, pressure and potential housing supply

relative house prices and rents

affordability of housing

occupancy by tenure

vacancy rates by tenure

turnover or churn

assessing available housing supply

89

Stage 4 Bringing evidence together

understand the balance of the overall stock of dwellings and households and how this has changed in recent years

provide evidence of the existing housing stock by size, type, tenure and location

provide evidence of changing house prices and housing demand by size type and location

indicate the extent to which some areas within the local housing market are less popular and/or raise issues of low demand/over supply and why

indicate the extent of demand pressure in terms of market and social housing stock

estimate current affordability by tenure and household incomes; and

identify other issues including stick condition, churn and over crowding B. Assessing future change in household numbers Stage 1: projecting the future change in household numbers: basic method or other methods Output An estimate of the projected household change in terms of age, gender, ethnicity and type A more sophisticated projection that takes account of local differences C. Assessing housing need Stage 1 Defining housing need

what is affordable? Add in ratios

defining unsuitable Add in standards

measuring affordability

assessing household income

assessing whether a household can afford to buy a home Add in example

assessing whether a household can afford to rent a home

assessing whether a household can afford a shared equity property

assessing where should a household be able to live

the needs assessment table (quantitative assessment of housing need for affordable housing)

Stage 2 using secondary and survey data Output

estimates of the levels of household need; and

estimates of the shortages or surplus of affordable housing needed in terms of different sized units

90

Stage 3 Considering the requirements of particular household groups

special needs housing

role of intermediate housing in meeting need D. Bringing together a robust evidence base A analysis and summary of the evidence collected above: Stage 1 key drivers of the housing market

future economic performance

future employment structure

future affordability Stage 2 Housing aspirations and choice

assessing future demand for market housing

assessing demand for affordable housing

assessing demand for intermediate housing

analysis and presentation Stage 3 Updating Local Housing assessments

Based on Key variables and data sources To assess housing need (C) the Data Collection Group worked with the Northern Housing Consortium between 2005 and 2006 to develop the Housing Needs Questionnaire to be utilised by Eden DC, Barrow BC, Allerdale BC and Carlisle CC. See Appendix 2 for project specification and timetable. South Lakes and Barrow commissioned consultants to carry out surveys due to time constraints. However to ensure consistency all districts used similar formats with corresponding questions and referred to the March and December updated Guidance when analysing the results (see Appendix 3). Eden District Council used Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) to analyse results. While the prime objective was to establish need at Housing Market Area level, to gather information at ward level the sample contacted was based on the number of households within wards, therefore for wards with under 1000 households (all except the key service settlements) 100% of households were sent a questionnaire. Due to the population size of key settlements it was possible to use a sample. The results below are for HMA‟s. This shows that with the exception of Alston (with a sample error of +/-6.88%) all are well within a credible error margin of +/- 5%.

91

No. H'holds

Sample required for +/- 5% binomial split of 50:50

HHs contacted

Sample contacted

Estimated response

Estimated response rate

Estimated sample error

Actual response

Actual Response rate

Sample Error

Alston 940 273 938 100 281 0.30 4.89% 167 18 6.88%

Eden Valley Nth

10867 371 5470 50 1641 0.30 2.23% 1202 22 2.67%

Eden Valley Sth

7053 364 6571 93 1971 0.30 1.87% 1285 20 2.47%

North Lakes

2301 329 2301 100 690 0.30 3.12% 455 20 4.11%

District Total

21162 377 15280 72 4584 0.30 1.28% 3110 20 1.62%

The 2006 Housing Needs Survey gave housing requirements for the next 5 years; Government Guidance states that a comprehensive assessment excersise should not be required withing this period but that updateing should be undertakend „regularly‟. The Research and Information Group started planning and updated Strategic Housing Market Assessment towards the end of 2007. By this point the SHMA Guidance Version 2 (August 2007) had been published and the Group worked closely to this Guidance. Estimates of housing need were calculated using the 2006 HNS, latest population trends and an analysis of the effects of employment changes to produce different scenarios to inform policy decisions. The 2009 SHMA have greatly increased and updated the original HMAs and in particular the Group worked closely with Cumbria Vision to expand the analysis of the economic and housing linkages. To ensure in put from stakeholders a wide consultation exercise began at the beginning of August 2009 and closed on 11September 2009. A full list of consultees is available at Appendix 4 and includes a wide variety of stakeholders such as private and public developers, government agencies, Cumbria Rural housing Trust, planning consultants etc.) A separate local consultation was also carried out covering local groups (e.g.Upper Eden Community Plan, Parish Councils etc). Results are currently being assessed and will be fed into the final SHMA documents.

92

Stages of Assessment using Local Houing Assessment Guidance, (ODPM, March 2005) A. ANALYSIS OF LOCAL HOUSING SYSTEM Section Heading Sub-

heading Data Source Location/web link Date of

publication Geograhical level

1. FACTORS AFFECTING THE CURRENT HOUSING SYSTEM

1.1 Impact of national and regional economic policy

GDP HM Treasury, also Cumbria Economic Intelligence Partnership

www.uclan.ac.uk/cred quarterley national

headline annual infaltion

Bank of England. Also Cumbria Economic Intelligence Partnership

www.uclan.ac.uk/cred monthly national

underlying annual inflation



Base (Repo) interest rate



unemployment claimant count/rate

ONS, also Cumbria Economic Intelligence Partnership

www.uclan.ac.uk/cred monthly UK/NW/Cumbria/LA/ward

Notified Job Vacancies

Nomis also Cumbria Economic Intelligence Partnership

monthly TTWA

http://www.uclan.ac.uk/cred





93

Indices of Depravation

ONS, also Cumbria Economic Intelligence Partnership/Cumbria CC

2004 District/SOA (Not produced for wards but methodology used to create districts also available and ward info available at CEIP- see Cumbria Economic Bulletin Sep 2004)

Halifax House Prices

monthly national/county

1.2 Demographic structure

Household type

Census Ness/NOMIS 2001 Admin area: C, LA, ward, OA. NeSS: C, LA, SOA(m) SOA (L) OA

Age of Head Census NOMIS (CAS 003) 2001 C, LA, ward, OA

Gender of Head

Census NOMIS (CAS 003) 2001 C, LA, ward, OA

Ethnicity Census Ness/NOMIS 2001 Admin area: C, LA, ward, OA. NeSS: C, LA, SOA(m) SOA (L) OA

Economic Status - all people


Economic Status - Head

Census NOMIS (CAS 013) 2001 C, LA, ward, OA

Tenure Census Ness/NOMIS 2001 Admin area: C, LA, ward, OA. NeSS: C, LA, SOA(m) SOA (L) OA

1.3 Size & Structure of Labour force

No.employees in each industrial sector


No.of employees by occupational classification

Census Ness/NOMIS Admin area: C, LA, ward, OA. NeSS: C, LA, SOA(m) SOA (L) OA

Occupation by Industry

Census NeSS/NOMIS 2001 Admin area: C, LA, ward, OA. NeSS: C, LA, SOA(m) SOA (L) OA

1.4 Local Incomes

Proportions/numbers of Households in each income band

CACI Paycheck, supplied by Cumbria County Council

www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=13101

2004 LA

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=13101



94

1.5 Cost of buying or renting a property & changes over time

Property Prices

Land Registry; CACI Street value supplied by Cumbria County Council

www.landreg.gov.uk quarterly National/Regional/LA, Postcode Sector

Rents Rent Service, Local estate agents

Housing Corporation or Dataspring

2004 LA

2. ASSESSING THE CURRENT STOCK OF HOUSING

2.1 Total number of dwellings

Total dwellings, total occupied dwellings, total second homes, total vacant properties


2.2 Tenure Total number of dwellings in each tenure


2.3 House Size/Type

Number of dwellings by size, by number of bedrooms, whether detached, semi-detached, terraced, house or flat

Census NeSS/NOMIS 2001 Admina Area: C, LA, ward, OA. NeSS: C, LA, SOA(m) SOA (L) OA

http://www.landreg.gov.uk/

95

2.4 Condition of Stock

Condition of stock (unfit, in need of major/minor repairs) by tenure and location if using stock condition or local housing survey)

Census; Stock condition surveys

Census - Ness/NOMIS; Stock condition surveys - local data providers to be identifed

2001 - Census; various dates - stock condition surveys

Census - Admin Area: C, LA, ward, OA. NeSS: C, LA, SOA(m) SOA (L) OA; Stock Condition Surveys variable depending on sample size. (Impact Housing has 100% survey)

2.5 Shared housing and communal establishments

Estimated number of households living in shared houses and communal establishments.

Census NeSS/NOMIS 2001 Admin Area: C, LA, ward, OA. NeSS: C, LA, SOA(m) SOA (L) OA

3. INDICATORS OF HOUSING DEMAND, PRESSURE AND POTENTIAL HOUSING SUPPLY

3.1 Relative house prices and rents by size, type and location

House prices and rents by size, type and location

Output of Section 1

3.2 Affordability of Housing

Output of Section 1

3.3 Overcrowding or underoccupation

Dwelling size and household size

Census NeSS/NOMIS 2001 Admin Area: C, LA, ward, OA. NeSS: C, LA, SOA(m) SOA (L) OA

Degree of overcrowding and under-occupancy

Census NeSS/NOMIS; Local data providers to be identifed

2001 Admin Area: C, LA, ward, OA. NeSS: C, LA, SOA(m) SOA (L) OA

Concealed households

Census, Local Survey Data Census - NeSS/NOMIS; Local data providers to be identied

2001 (Census), various dates (Local Survey

Data)

Admin Area: C, LA, ward, OA. NeSS: C, LA, SOA(m) SOA (L) OA; Local survey data variable depending on sample size

96

3.4 Vacancy Rates

Vacancy rates by tenure and size

Census, HA/LA records Census - NeSS/NOMIS; Local data providers to be identifed.

2001 - Census; 2005 - HA/LA

records

Admin Area: C, LA, ward, OA. NeSS: C, LA, SOA(m) SOA (L) OA: LA/HA records - to be determined

3.5 Turnover Turnover by property type and size

Land Registry (owner occupation), LA/HA records (social rented)

www.landreg.gov.uk 2005 Land Reg - National/Regional/LA/Postcode Sector; LA/HA records - to be determined

3.6 Indication of available supply by tenure

Available supply by tenure, type, size

Estate and Lettings Agents records (owner occupation and private sector), HA/LA records (social rented)

Local data providers to be identified

2005 to be determined

B. ASSESSING FUTURE CHANGE IN HOUSEHOLD NUMBERS Simple Approach to projecting future household change Principal data

sources

Outputs

Population and household

composition

Section A, 1.2 Current numbers of

households by type, age,

gender and ethnicity

Projecting future change in

household numbers

Official population and

household projections

(updated using the

National Health

Service Central

Register) available

from Cumbria County

Council

Future number of

households by type (i.e.

married couple, cohabiting

couple, lone parent, other

multi-person and single

person household) age,

gender and ethnicity

C. ASSESSING HOUSING NEED USING SECONDARY & SURVEY DATA

STAGE 1: Defining housing need

http://www.landreg.gov.uk/

97

D.BRINGING TOGETHER A ROBUST EVIDENCE BASE Stage 1. Key drivers of the housing market

Step

Principal data sources Outputs

1.1 Future economic

performance

Bank of England

Treasury

Inland Revenue

Commissioned economic

forecasts

Interest rates

GDP\GNP

Incomes and income distribution

Forecast of local economic

performance

1.2 Future employment

structure

Local major employers

Studies undertaken by

local economic

development units


forecasts

Plans to expand or to reduce

employment

Likely future changes in

employment structure

1.3 Future affordability

Land Registry

Estate and Letting Agents


forecasts

House prices by type and

location

House prices and rents by size,

type and location

Future growth in incomes

STAGE 2B: The Needs Assessment (Table B) using both secondary and survey data

STAGE 3: Considering the requirements of particular household groups

98

NORTH CUMBRIA

Housing Needs Survey 2006 Specification

1. Introduction

Cumbria County Council, Allerdale Borough Council, Carlisle City Council, Eden District Council and Copeland Borough Council are carrying out housing needs survey in each of their areas across all tenures and client groups. It is envisaged that the study will comprise a sample survey of households by post, together with existing data drawn from a secondary sources to provide other demand and supply data. The Cumbria Sub Regional Housing Group‟s Data Collection Task Group has produced a common methodology for housing needs surveys to ensure the consistency of data across Cumbria in order to inform the Cumbria Housing Strategy.

2. Survey Objectives

The research is required to support the corporate, housing and planning strategies of all four district Council‟s and the County Council. The Council places great emphasis on partnership working hence the commitment to adopting the Cumbrian methodology, which will enhance the Council‟s facilitating and brokering role. The final report should include a housing need forecast for:

The next five years, i.e. 2006-2011, and

The long-term future, i.e. 2011-2016 (financial years)

The findings from the study should be set in the context of national or regional data where possible. In more detail, the data from the survey should:

outline the nature and reasons for housing need;

inform corporate strategies;

assist in the development of the Council‟s Housing Strategy;

assist the Council to make informed decisions about the targeting of housing resources;

assist in developing the housing policy within the Local Development Framework, particularly in respect of projecting the scale and reasons for the need for affordable housing and appropriate tenure mixes to achieve sustainable communities;

99

inform the further development of services by providing information about physical disability; the need for housing adaptations; the likely need for disabled facilities grants; indicative need for supported housing and housing with support for older people; and

provide background material to inform annual bidding rounds with the Housing Corporation and the Regional Housing Board

3. Information Required from the Survey

The following list, which is not exhaustive, shows the type of information that we hope to obtain from the survey. The list comprises:

estimates of housing need broken down by area, tenure, type, size, price and reason for the next five years

projections of housing demand in the longer term, to include comparisons between different areas and issues of low as well as high demand;

recent housing history, in terms of tenure, geographical origin and reasons for moving within/into/out of the District (retirement homes, second homes, holiday homes, employment);

information on house prices and rental prices by area and property type, property availability by area and type and demand for different types, sizes, tenure and prices of properties and the relationship between the housing markets in Cumbria and other neighbouring areas, the employment market and economic trends, including travel to work areas, should be examined

analysis of each defined housing market including an assessment of whether these markets are balanced;

analysis of key service centres and defined rural sub-areas;

expected rate of new household formation and future household composition (by household type and number of bedrooms required);

current demographic patterns (such as the profile of social housing tenants) and projections on long term demographic changes;

information on household income and patterns of employment;

local affordability trends;

number of households requiring physical adaptations;

requirements of Black and Minority Ethnic communities

100

Recommendations for action taking into account issues of sustainability, social inclusion and balancing housing markets.

4. Sample Design

It has been agreed that in wards with under 1000 households that every household will be surveyed. For those wards with over 1,000 households the sample size has been agreed through the Cumbria Data Collection Group and will provide statistically valid information. Within key service centres individual wards have been grouped together. Analysis will be provided by:-

Housing Market Area

Key Service Centres

Rural wards

Sample Selection

The Council‟s shall provide a list of property addresses from the GIS database based on the agreed sample sizes. A hard copy of the addresses and a disc containing all the addresses will be sent to the agency appointed to do the admin work and data entry. Survey Form

A standard survey form has been agreed by the Cumbria Data Collection Group to ensure the consistency of data across Cumbria. The agency appointed to do all the admin work and data entry will send out all the survey forms on behalf of the Councils.

Secondary sources

Census 2001

English House Condition survey

South Lakeland District Council Housing Register

South Lakeland Private Sector Stock Condition Survey 2003

Cumbria Supporting People Strategy 2005-2010

Secondary data on housing market/population and incomes by defined market areas (for each area concentrating on the key service centres and their rural hinterlands)

Housing Strategy Statistical Appendix HIP returns

Plans for new provision of affordable housing

Homeless applications made to each individual authority

Housing Market Analysis The Council Officers will collate all the secondary data including house prices, rental process by area and property type, property availability by area and type, demand for property types, property sizes, tenure, number of second homes and holiday homes.

101

The Officers will also interview the housing associations, estate agents, lettings agents, developers and employers. The agency appointed to do all the admin work and data entry will enter all the data as the survey forms are returned. This data will then be sent to the Councils who will pull together the results and information they require.

6. Production and presentation of interim and final reports

The Council‟s will produce a draft report and draft tables which will be passed to the Housing Strategy group, by mid-April 2006. The proposed timetable is: Research commences January 2006 Postal survey commences January 2006 Fieldwork Completion by mid February 2006 Draft report and tables to CHS Group by mid April

NEEDS ASSESSMENT TABLE (SURVEY DATA AND SECONDARY DATA): STEPS

AND SOURCES using Local Housing Assessment Draft Guidance, March 2005)

Element and step in calculation Data sources

1. Existing households in need of

alternative accommodation

Local housing survey.

2. plus Current non-households in

need of affordable housing

Local housing survey

Priority homeless in temporary

accommodation;

Hostel move on needs;

Homeless agencies data;

3. minus cases where they can afford

to meet their needs in the market

Local housing survey.

4. equals Total current housing need 1+ 2 – 3

5.Current occupiers of affordable

housing in need.

LHS

6. plus surplus stock Local Authority records.

7. plus committed supply of new

affordable units.

Development programmes of LAs and

HAs, including conversions and

intermediate housing products.

102

Regeneration\pathfinder schemes

8. minus planned units to be taken

out of management

LAs and HAs demolition and

conversions programmes.

9. equals Total available stock to

meet current need

5 + 6 + 7 – 8

10. equals Total Current need 4 – 9

11. times quota progressively to

reduce level of current need

Policy judgement.

12. equals annual need to reduce

level of current need

10 x 11

13. New household formation (gross

p.a.)

LHS new hidden homeless

households/year;

LHS recent moves not previous

households.

14. times proportion of newly arising

households unable to buy or rent in

the market

LHS incomes of hidden homeless

households and recent new

households;

Output from chapter 4, establishing

entry level rents and property prices

[i.e. step 3.2 of chapter 4]

15. plus existing households falling

into need and unable to afford market

housing

LHS – Households recently fallen into

need;

LHS – New social tenants who fell into

need within the last year.

LA data on households recently

housed outside normal housing

register, or where entered register

within last year.

16. minus potential out-migrants

unable to afford market housing.

LHS – people intending to move;

17. plus in-migrants unable to afford

market housing.

LHS - recent migrants profile.

18. equals Newly arising need (13 x 14) + 15 + 16 + 17

19. Net supply of social re-lets Lettings/voids system for LA and HAs;

CORE data for HAs.

HSSA data

20. plus supply of intermediate LA and HA Lettings/voids system and

103

housing available for relet or resale at

sub market levels

data on resales of sub-market LCHO

or shared equity schemes.

21. equals affordable supply 19 + 20

NET SHORTFALL OR SURPLUS

22. Overall shortfall or surplus 12 + 18 – 21

104

NEEDS ASSESSMENT TABLE (SURVEY DATA AND SECONDARY DATA): STEPS AND SOURCES using Housing Market Assessments Draft, December 2005.

Step Stage 1: CURRENT NEED

1.1 Current occupiers of affordable housing in need Local Housing survey

1.2 plus Households from other tenures in need

Local housing survey; Housing register, homeless agencies etc

1.3 plus Households without self-contained accommodation

Priority homeless in temporary accommodation;

1.4 equals Total current housing need (gross) 1.1 +1.2 + 1.3

Number who cannot afford market prices

Stage 2: AVAILABLE STOCK TO OFFSET NEED

2.1 Current occupiers of affordable housing in need Local housing survey

2.2 plus Surplus stock LA and RSL records

2.3 plus Committed supply of new affordable units

LA, RSL, Pathfinder Development programmes

2.4 minus Units to be taken out of management LA, RSL, Pathfinder conversions/demolition

2.5 equals Total stock available to meet current need 2.1 + 2.2 + 2.3 – 2.4

2.6 equals Total current unmet housing need 1.4 – 2.5

2.7 Times annual quota for the reduction of current need Policy Judgment

2.8 Equals annual requirement of units to reduce current need 2.6 x 2.7

Stage 3: NEWLY ARISING NEED

3.1 New household formation (gross per year) Local housing survey

3.2 Times Proportion of new households unable to buy or rent in the market

Local housing survey

3.3 plus Existing households falling into need Local housing survey

3.4 equals Total newly arising housing need (3.1 x 3.2) + 3.3

Stage 4: FUTURE SUPPLY OF AFFORDABLE UNITS

4.1 Annual supply of social re-lets (net) Lettings/ voids

4.2 plus Annual supply of intermediate housing available for re-let or resale at sub-market levels

CORE

4.3 equals Annual supply of affordable units 4.1 + 4.2

NET SHORTFALL OR SURPLUS OF AFFORDABLE UNITS 2.8 + 3.6 – 4.3

105

Appendix XX Draft Local Housing Market Indicators 2009/10 Further discussion is required on the appropriate measures for Housing Market indicators.

106

HOUSING MARKET AREA HMAs TOTAL

Baseline Target

Key Indicator

Measure 1: Provision of affordable housing to buy as a % of overall LCHO need

Number of LCHO required (housing need figure)

Number of affordable houses to buy completed

Percentage

Measure 2: Provision of affordable housing to rent as % of overall affordable rental need.

Number of affordable housing to rent required (housing need figure)

Number of affordable housing to rent completed

Percentage

Measure 3: Provision of local occupancy housing as a % of net housing required

Number of homes required (all tenures)

Number of local occupancy housing provided

Percentage

Measure 4: Number of long-term empty homes returned to use

Number of long-term empty homes - Total

Number of long-term empty homes returned to use via LA assistance

Percentage

Measure 5: % of homeless presentations

Total households

Total presentations

Percentage

Measure 6: % of homeless acceptances

Total households

Total acceptances

Percentage

Measure 7: % Private sector decent properties

Number of private sector properties

Number of private sector properties made decent by the local authority

Percentage

Measure 8: % RSL decent properties

Number of RSL Properties

Number of decent RSL properties

Percentage

Measure 9: Fuel poverty (NI 187). Number of households on income based benefits

Properties with low energy efficiency rating

Measure 10: % Second homes

Number of properties

Number of Second and holiday homes

Percentage

107

Appendix xx – additional tables

Table Industry

of employment: 2006-07 (work

based)

Energy and water (SIC

C,E)

Manufacturing (SIC D)

Construction (SIC F)


Transport and communication

s (SIC I)

Banking, finance and insurance,

etc (SIC J,K)

Public administration,education & health (SIC L,M,N)

Other services

(SIC O,P,Q)

TOTALS

% % % % % % % %

Alston Moor

1 0.6 100 4.3 31 1.5 110 1.8 39 2.9 60 2.8 169 3.9 29 3.8 545

North Lakes -

East 62 34.6 194 8.4 71 3.5 668 10.7 48 3.5 155 7.2 165 3.8 180 24.0 1,557

Eden Valley South

71 40.0 602 26.1 805 40.0 2303 36.7 535 39.4 518 24.2 1031 24.0 160 21.4 6,030

Eden Valley North

45 25.4 141

6 61.3 1095 54.5 3183 50.7 735 54.1 1416 66.2 2939 68.4 374 50.0 11,263

District total

178 100.0 231

0 100.0 2009 100.0 6272 100.0 1358 100.0 2139 100.0 4299

100.0

747 100.

0 20134

20

Personal service occupations include nurses, ambulance staff, residential wardens, care assistants, educational assistants, veterinary nurses, sports and leisure assistants, tour guides, hairdressers and beauticians, housekeepers, pest control officers and undertakers. For a full definition see ONS Standard Occupational Classification, major group 6. 21

Elementary occupations include agricultural workers (farm, forestry and fishing), construction labourers, dockers, hospital porters, waiters, bar staff, leisure attendants, refuse, traffic wardens and car park attendants. For a full definition see ONS Standard Occupational Classification, major group 9.

Table xx Occupation level % 2006-07

Allerdale Barrow-in-

Furness Carlisle Copeland Eden South Lakeland

% % % % % %

1: managers and senior officials

5,900 12.9 2,300 7.1 8,100 15.9 5,500 18.5 2,800 10.1 8,000 17.2

2: professional occupations 3,300 7.2 3,300 10.1 4,800 9.4 1,800 5.9 2,400 8.9 7,700 16.5

3: associate prof & tech occupations

5,100 11.3 3,800 11.7 4,300 8.5 2,400 8.2 4,600 16.9 6,500 13.9

4: administrative and secretarial occupations

5,100 11.1 2,900 8.8 8,500 16.6 2,700 9.0 2,700 9.9 6,000 12.9

5: skilled trades occupations 8,500 18.7 4,600 14.0 5,300 10.3 3,700 12.3 5,900 21.7 6,400 13.7

6: personal service occupations

20

3,600 7.8 5,100 15.4 5,100 10.1 2,600 8.7 1,100 4.1 2,400 5.1

7: sales and customer service occupations

2,700 6.0 2,300 7.0 4,100 8.0 2,700 9.1 2,200 8.1 2,200 4.8

8: process, plant and machine operatives 5,300 11.7 3,100 9.3 4,500 8.9 4,700 15.6 3,600 13.4 2,300 4.9

9: elementary occupations

21

6,100 13.3 5,200 15.7 6,300 12.3 3,200 10.6 1,900 6.9 4,900 10.4

Source: Annual Population Survey ONS.

45,600 100 32,600 99 51,000 100 29,300 98 27,200 100 46,400 99

109

Appendix xx Definition and types of affordable housing Excerpt from Delivering Affordable Housing, Annex B: Definition and types of affordable housing, Communities and Local Government, November 2006

Definitions 30. Affordable housing includes social rented and intermediate housing, provided to

specified eligible households whose needs are not met by the market. Affordable housing should: – meet the needs of eligible households including availability at a cost low enough for them to afford, determined with regard to local incomes and local house prices; and – include provisions for: (i) the home to be retained for future eligible households; or (ii) if these restrictions are lifted, for any subsidy to be recycled for alternative affordable housing provision.

31. Social rented housing is rented housing owned and managed by local authorities and RSLs, for which guideline target rents are determined through the national rent regime. The proposals set out in the Three Year Review of Rent Restructuring (July 2004) were implemented as policy in April 2006. It may also include rented housing owned or managed by other persons and provided under equivalent rental arrangements to the above, as agreed with the local authority or with the Housing Corporation as a condition of grant.

32. Intermediate affordable housing is housing at prices and rents above those of social rent but below market price or rents, and which meet the criteria set out above. These can include shared equity (eg HomeBuy) and other low cost homes for sale, and intermediate rent.

Context of the definitions 33. The definitions above replace the guidance given in PPG 3 Housing (2000) and

Circular 6/98 Planning and Affordable Housing. They are set out in Annex B of Planning Policy Statement 3 (PPS3): Housing.

34. The Government has adopted this definition of affordable housing because it wishes to ensure that developer contributions are used to help provide genuinely affordable housing for households in need over the long term. The definition includes homes owned or managed by private sector bodies and provided without Government grant, and new models of affordable housing. It is not essential that all affordable homes are offered under identical conditions.

Social rented housing 35. Normally, only households on local authority and RSL registers are eligible for social

rented housing. Target rents are set under a national rent regime; are well below market levels; and, are normally based on relative property values, local earning levels and property size. When a household ceases to occupy a social rented home, it is normally made available to other households eligible for social rented housing. Social rented homes are normally owned and/or managed by a RSL (or other body agreed by the Housing Corporation), and will be required by regulation or contract to meet the criteria.

36. Some tenants have the legal right to purchase at a discount the social rented home in which they live, e.g. RSL tenants with a Right to Acquire and local authority

110

tenants with Right to Buy. Where these rights are exercised the home itself ceases to be affordable, but procedures are in place to reuse receipts. Receipts from Right to Acquire sales are recycled to provide more social rented housing to help other eligible households. Receipts from Right to Buy are partly (25 per cent) retained by the local authority for use however the authority chooses; the remaining 75 per cent is kept by Government to be reinvested in new supply.

37. Local authority homes which are let in connection with the tenant‟s employment, or are particularly suitable for occupation by disabled or elderly persons are exempted from Right to Buy. Publicly funded housing in small rural settlements22 is exempt from Right to Acquire, as replacing them with other affordable homes would be extremely difficult. (It is not exempt from the Right to Buy, but the landlord may require that properties sold under that scheme can only be resold to people who live or work locally). Landlords will also usually have a right of first refusal to buy back any homes sold under the Right to Acquire and Right to Buy, if they are resold within ten years.

Intermediate affordable housing 38. Types of housing between market and social rented housing include:

– Intermediate rented homes are provided at rent levels above those of social rented but below private rented. The Government offers these to some key workers who do not wish to buy. – Discounted sale homes have a simple discount for the purchaser on its market price, so the purchaser buys the whole home at a reduced rate. – Shared equity is where more than one party has an interest in the value of the home e.g. an equity loan arrangement or a shared ownership lease. There may be a charge on the loan, and restrictions on price, access and resale. – Shared ownership is a form of shared equity under which the purchaser buys an initial share in a home from a housing provider, who retains the remainder and may charge a rent. The purchaser may buy additional shares („staircasing‟), and this payment should be „recycled‟ for more affordable housing. In most cases, a purchaser may buy the final share („staircase out‟) and own the whole home, though this may be restricted in some rural areas.

39. Homes of any of these types should only be considered intermediate affordable housing if they meet the criteria in the definition. If they do not, even if offered at less than market price, they should be considered „low cost market housing‟, outside the definition of affordable housing.

40. For example, a shared ownership home is likely to be affordable if access is restricted to households from a target group at a price they can afford. The purchaser may staircase out, but there should be secure arrangements for subsidy to be recycled to provide more affordable homes or buy back the home if needed.

41. Low cost market housing is not part of the Government‟s definition of affordable housing although it can play an important role in meeting housing demand. Local authorities should consider the potential to provide low cost market housing as part of their approach to achieving a mix of housing (PPS3, paragraph 26).

22 Small rural settlements have been designated for enfranchisement and right to acquire purposes (under Section 17 of

the Housing Act 1996) by SI 1997/620-25 inclusive and 1999/1307).

112

Appendix xx Key Aspirational Scenario Assumptions

Growth in the agricultural and forestry sector due to significant potential for improvements in the management of woodland areas. In turn, this would lead to significant potential for biomass production helping to fuel a low carbon economy in the future.

Linked to growth in agriculture there is potential to grow the size of the food and drink sector both in terms of jobs and profitability due to focus on good quality, local, higher added value produce. Cumbrian branding will help streamline the marketing of local produce.

Off the back of developments in West Cumbria relating to energy and environmental technologies, the area will become a desirable location for businesses related to this sphere of work but who do not want to locate themselves in the relatively more isolated areas of West Cumbria or Barrow.

Assuming provision of decent land and premises there is significant potential for growth along the M6 corridor.

The area is particularly reliant on the retail and hospitality industry which exhibit significant growth potential despite being traditionally low value sectors. Nevertheless higher added value will be achieved in the future, particularly in the hospitality sector, through improvements to customer service and widespread take-up a recognised scheme of accreditation.

Eden

The New Squares development in Penrith will bring substantial job gains (up to 950 created).

The University of Cumbria will expand its offering at Newton Rigg leading to the creation of many new jobs.

The new Eden skills centre with headquarters at Newton Rigg and smaller centres based in Appleby, Kirkby Stephen and Alston will lead to the creation of new jobs.

Expansion at Penrith hospital and job creation through the NHS‟s closer to home initiative.

Lowther Castle and Gardens development employing specialist heritage construction workers and leading to the creation of 150+ jobs (most of them indirect) once opened.

Regeneration of Penrith town centre (including cultural projects) through the Penrith Masterplan should bring increases in visitor numbers and spend to the town.

Key Worst Case Scenario Assumptions

113

Due to constant demand for food and a shifting emphasis on buying local produce it is expected that job losses will be minimal within the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector; nevertheless, the sector will fail to live up to its potential for growth. The worst case scenario is only marginally worse than the baseline.

Manufacturing was already expected to decline even under the aspirational scenario, so it is not surprising that this will be one of the hardest hit sectors. Particular pressure will come from rising cost of imports, although some firms dealing mainly in exports may be more fortunate. However the vast majority of small-medium sized firms operating mainly within localised markets will come under pressure from all sides as both upper tier companies and retailers attempt to retain their profit margins. Declining consumer spending and lack of buyer confidence will lead to falls in output and pressure on managers to either reduce the number of working hours or, where this fails, reduce the size of the workforce.

As in other forms of manufacturing, the food and drink sector will be squeezed as a result of the downturn albeit to a more limited extent due to the size of the sector. Demand for food will not decline as markedly as other products although there may be a move from luxury products to shops own brands with farm shops and higher added value produce likely to be worst hit.

The extent of any change in the retail and hospitality sector is difficult to predict, however it is expected that job losses in retail will be widespread due to a decrease in consumer confidence/spending and a number of national stores going into administration. Within hospitality, any job losses may be absorbed by the migrant workforce returning to their country of origin due to the fall in the value of sterling. However there is a counter-argument which suggests tourism based revenue may actually increase in the Lake District as more people decide to holiday in the UK rather than abroad.

The construction industry has been severely hit due to the stalling of new housing and commercial projects, falling land prices and difficulty in accessing finance. The knock-on effects are now taking hold with many smaller businesses in the supply chain facing difficult times. The coming years are predicted to be especially difficult for the construction industry until confidence returns to the housing market and credit conditions improve.

Financial and business services are under-represented across Cumbria as a whole, so any potential job losses within the sector as a proportion of total job losses within Cumbria are likely to be less pronounced than for across the UK. However, a number of high profile job losses have been announced by global firms in recent months and it is very possible that rationalisation of services and associated downsizing will affect businesses operating in Cumbria.

As a result of contraction elsewhere, it is possible that employment in the public sector may actually increase rather than decline in an attempt to stem rising unemployment. However it is still expected that any increase will be at a slower

114

rate than that of the baseline trend. Investment in skills and education infrastructure is likely to remain strong, as is expenditure in the health sector.

115

Appendix XX Bedroom allowances used for the 2006 Housing Needs Survey

Table XX Breakdown of household types and bedroom requirements for the 2006 Housing Needs Survey

No. of adults

No. of bed spaces req

One individual under pensionable age 1 1

Couple under pensionable age 2 1

Two other adults under pensionable age 2 2

Three or more adults under pensionable age: 3 2

4 3

5 4

6 5

One adult with 1-2 children (aged under 16) 1 2

3

One adult with 3 or more children (aged under 16) 1 3

4

Two adults with 1-2 children (aged under 16) 2 2

3

Two adults with 3 or more children (aged under 16) 2 3

4

5

One pensioner 1 1

Two pensioners 2 1

Couple, one pensioner and one non-pensioner 2 1

Other household 1 1

2 2

3 3

4 4

5 5

6 5

strategic housing market assessment 2009: eden valley south€¦ · draft eden valley south...

Documents