strategic and tactical allocation€¦ · miss out on the biggest determinant of portfolio returns...

BNP PARIBAS WEALTH MANAGEMENT

STRATEGIC AND TACTICAL ALLOCATION

INFORMATION BROCHURE 2020

The answer is YES.

Can private clients

achieve returns similar

to the most respected

and experienced

long-term investors?

A U G U S T 2 0 2 0

STRATEGIC & TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION

WHAT is the Difference between

Strategic Asset Allocation & Tactical

Asset Allocation?

Long term vs. Short-term focus

Q

WHY is it Crucial?

Provides a roadmap for investment success

Q

WHO may Benefit?

Everyone!

Q

WHEN should you Start?

As early as possible

Q

HOW do you Stay Committed?

Stay invested with regular portfolio rebalancing!

Q

Strategic & Tactical Allocation

Strategic Asset Allocation is about structuring an optimal portfolio with an aim to achieve

targeted portfolio returns or risk levels in the long-term (5-10 years), based on long-term

expected returns of different asset classes. In that regard, compounding plays an important role

to preserve purchasing power and/or growing wealth in the long-term.

3

WHAT is the Difference between

STRATEGIC & TACTICAL ALLLOCATION

Compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world. He who understands it, .

By Albert Einstein

Tactical Asset allocation is dynamically adjusting the strategic asset allocation weightings

across asset classes based on risk and reward due to short- and medium-term market

movements. Keep in mind these are refinements in allocations while maintaining the core

strategic asset allocation. In short, the tail should never wag the dog!

In the longer term, expected return of eachasset class is more predictable, thanks tothe correlation between risk and return. Forinstance, over a long-term horizon, cash orgovernment bond tend to have lower returnsthan high yield bonds, equities or privateequity (chart 1).

Chart and figures are for illustration purposes only and may be subject to change.

Source: BNP Paribas Wealth Management Strategic-A Model

This composition of different asset classesand their resulting expected risk/returnallows investors to build a portfoliocorresponding to their long term objectivesthrough strategic asset allocation. This iscrucial toward building an optimal portfolioallocation.


WHY is

Asset Allocation CRUCIAL?

Strategic asset allocation is a structured approach to investing while creating discipline around

approaching shorter-term market movements via tactical asset allocation. At the same time, it seeks

to avoid some of the behavioural biases such as and (i.e. buy high, sell low, overreliance on

market timing) which can have a disproportionate impact on investment returns. Therefore, robust returns

are achievable over a 5-10 year time horizon, even with significant intra-year market drawdowns.

According to historic analysis (chart 2), Strategic Asset Allocation is the most important driver of

returns over the long term. It explains more than 75% of the variability of returns, while the other three

elements, namely security selection, tactical asset allocation and market timing together only account for

the remaining of less than 25%.

StrategicAsset

Allocation77.5%

Investment Selection

10.3%Tactical Asset

Allocation5.6%

Market Timing6.6%

SHORT TERM

LONG TERM FOCUS

Source: «Strategic Asset Allocation and Other Determinants of Portfolio Returns» Étude Hoernemann, Junkans & Zarate, 2005.Chart and figures are for illustration purposes only and may be subject to change.

Chart 2: What is the most important determinant of portfolio return?

MORE THAN 75%of the variability of returns

associated with a portfolio isdetermined by STRATEGIC

ASSET ALLOCATION

4

Miss out on the biggest determinant of portfolio returns strategic asset allocation

when many private investors are too focused on short-term market opportunities. Therefore, it is well

worth spending some time to define own strategic asset allocation framework as a complement to

their short-term tactical asset allocation strategy.

This phrase was coined by Harry Markowitz, Nobel Prize-winning economist and one of the innovators of

modern portfolio theory. What does it mean?

Diversification is an important part of asset allocation but investors often pay enough attention to

how to diversify their portfolios effectively and are not as diversified as they think they are. Furthermore,

forget your private assets and business interests as well.

Chart 3 shows that it is difficult to predict the top asset class performer every year, while a diversified

portfolio is well positioned to take advantage of varying asset class returns.

Asset allocation not only provides clients a roadmap to harness returns from various asset classes over

the long-term in order to achieve their investment objectives, but also avoids being overtly by

short-term market fluctuations!

Chart 3: The benefits of diversification

Source: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas Wealth Management, 02 April 2020Chart and figures are for illustration purposes only and may be subject to change.


WHY is

Asset Allocation CRUCIAL?

RANKED ANNUAL TOTAL RETURNS OF KEY INDICIES (2009 - 2019)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Bes

t EM Equities

74.1%

Gold

29.5%

Gold

10.1%

EM Bonds

18.5%

DM Equities

24.1%

US Corp. IG

8.7%

Gov. Bonds

1.4%

US Corp. HY

17.1%

EM Equities

34.3%

Gov. Bonds

3.0%

DM Equities

25.2%

US Corp. HY

58.2%

EM Equities

16.4%

US Corp. IG

9.1%

US Corp. HY

15.8%

Alternatives

9.1%

Gov. Bonds

5.6%

EM Bonds

1.2%

Commondities

11.4%

DM Equities

20.1%

Gold

-1.6%

Gold

18.3%

EM Bonds

28.2%

US Corp. HY

15.1%

EM Bonds

8.5%

EM Equities

15.1%

US Corp. HY

7.4%

EM Bonds

5.5%

US Corp. IG

-0.7%

EM Bonds

10.2%

Gold

13.5%

US Corp. HY

-2.1%

Commondities

17.6%

DM Equities

27.0%

EM Bonds

12.0%

US Corp. HY

5.0%

DM Equities

13.2%

Gov. Bonds

1.2%

Alternatives

3.0%

Alternatives

-1.1%

EM Equities

8.6%

EM Bonds

9.3%

US Corp. IG

-3.7%

US Corp. IG

17.3%

Gold

24.5%

Alternatives

10.2%

Gov. Bonds

3.1%

US Corp. IG

11.8%

Commondities

-1.2%

DM Equities

2.9%

DM Equities

-2.7%

Gold

8.1%

Alternatives

8.6%

EM Bonds

-4.6%

EM Equities

15.4%

Alternatives

20.0%

DM Equities

9.6%

Commondities

-1.2%

Gold

7.1%

US Corp. IG

-2.4%

US Corp. HY

2.5%

US Corp. HY

-4.5%

US Corp. IG

6.4%

US Corp. HY

7.5%

Alternatives

-4.7%

EM Bonds

14.4%

Commondities

13.5%

US Corp. IG

9.4%

Alternatives

-5.3%

Alternatives

6.4%

EM Equities

-5.0%

Gold

-1.8%

Gold

-10.2%

Alternatives

5.4%

US Corp. IG

7.3%

DM Equities

-10.4%

US Corp. HY

14.3%

US Corp. IG

12.8%

Commondities

9.0%

DM Equities

-7.6%

Gov. Bonds

4.4%

EM Bonds

-6.6%

EM Equities

-4.6%

EM Equities

-17.0%

DM Equities

5.3%

Commondities

5.8%

Commondities

-13.8%

Alternatives

10.4%

Wo

rst

Gov. Bonds

3.1%

Gov. Bonds

2.5%

EM Equities

-20.4%

Commondities

0.1%

Gold

-28.3%

Commondities

-33.1%

Commondities

-32.9%

Gov. Bonds

2.9%

Gov. Bonds

1.8%

EM Equities

-16.6%

Gov. Bonds

4.9%

5


WHO may Benefit?

…..EVERYONE!

Source: Harvard Management Company, Yale University, BNP Paribas Wealth ManagementChart and figures are for illustration purposes only and may be subject to change.

Strategic asset allocation framework

In the institutional world, sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and endowment funds all have it in place, with their objective to deliver consistent returns over a long-term investment horizon.

Harvard and Yale endowment fundsfor illustration purpose

Their main objective is to deliver regular income to meet the university spending policies while preserving the purchasing power of the endowment.

Both endowment funds have a long-term track record of achieving superior returns above 10% p.a. over the past 20 years with substantial AUM (assets under management).

They have a very welldiversified portfolio withhigher allocations toalternative investmentssuch as venture capital,private equity, naturalresources or absolutereturn strategies than mostinvestors do. This is due tothe illiquidity returnpremium these investmentsgenerate as well as theirlower correlation to publicassets.

In addition, their assetallocations relyprimarily on toexploit short-term tradingopportunities!

Very few (if any) investors have a repeatable, long-term track record based on market timing, thus, the most important need for almost all private and institutional investors is to define a strategic asset allocation framework with a diversified portfolio to achieve consistent returns in the long-term.

6

Cash & Deposits 21%

Cash & Deposits 3%

Fixed Income 7%

Fixed Income 4%

U.S. Equity 10%

U.S. Equity 3%

Foreign Equity 6%

Foreign Equity 15%

EM Equity 3%

Real Estate 12%

Real Estate 11%

Natural Resources 6%

Natural Resources 8%

Absolute Return 18%

Absolute Return 25%

Private Equity VC, 31%

Private Equity 17%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

YALE ENDOWMENT ALLOCATION

$ 27.2 billion

HARVARD ENDOWMENT ALLOCATION

$ 37.0 billion

MSCI AC World IndexEnd-June 2010 End-June 2020

% Positive Days 55%

Short term horizons often lead to disappointment

% Positive Weeks 64%

% Positive Months 63%

Total Return (10 years) 96% Longer term horizons allow for positive compounding and earning the asset class risk premiumAnnualised Return 6.9%


WHEN should you Start?AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE

// Strategic asset allocation is about long-term investing

Private investors should start as early as possible and can take a back seat once the strategic asset allocation is set in motion.

Good things come to those who wait.

This is illustrated by a strong case for a buy and hold approach in the long term.

Chart 5 shows that the MSCI AC World Index delivered total returns of 96% over the past 10 years, with

annualized return of 6.9%, even with the major market crisis GFC in between.

Investors can enjoy positive impact of compounding and earn the resulting asset class risk premium

over a longer term horizon.

In summary, the longer the time horizon, the higher the probability of making positive returns.

Chart 5 Short termism is a major risk associated with market timing

Source: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas Wealth Management

No doubt there are many short-term trading opportunities driven by the latest economic, financial or political newsflow. Resulting opportunities can be addressed by tactical asset allocation, helping to further raise the probability of positive returns.

7

// By definition, market corrections are often hard to be predicted

1

The strongest returns often come shortly after the worst period of returns. Since January 2000 to December 2019, 6 of the 10 best days occurred within two weeks of

the 10 worst days. Chart 6 illustrates that missing out a handful of days could have a big impact on

long-term total returns, as compared to those investors who stayed fully invested for 20years even during dot.com crash in 2000 and global financial crisis in 2008.

Chart 6: Costs of being out of market

Chart and figures are for illustration purposes only and may be subject to change. Source: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas WM


HOW do you Stay Committed?STAYING INVESTED WITH REGULAR PORTFOLIO REBALANCING!

8

$32,421(6.06% return)

$16,180(2.44% return)

$10,167(0.08% return) $6,749

(-1.95% return) $4,607(-3.80% return)

$3,246(-5.47% return)

$2,331(-7.02% return)

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

FullyInvested

Missed 10Best Days

Missed 20Best Days

Missed 30Best Days

Missed 40Best Days

Missed 50Best Days

Missed 60Best Days

Six of the 10 best days occurred within two weeks

of the 10 worst days

RETURNS OF S&P 500PERFORMANCE OF $10,000 BETWEEN 3 JANUARY 2000 AND 31 DECEMBER 2019, ANNUALISED TOTAL RETURNS

// Disappointing returns

Some investors think that they can regularly time the market or let their emotions take theseat in their investment decisions. They will regret it as an average investor who tends

to go in and out of the market generates the lowest 20-year annualised returns compared to allother asset classes, as shown in Chart 7.

Chart and figures are for illustration purposes only and may be subject to change. Source: JP Morgan, BNP Paribas Wealth Management


HOW do you Stay Committed?STAYING INVESTED WITH REGULAR PORTFOLIO REBALANCING!

2

3

4

9

11.6%

8.6%

6.1%5.6% 5.4% 5.0%

4.2% 3.8% 3.4%

2.2% 1.9%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

REITs Gold S&P 500 60 / 40 40 / 60 Bonds Oil EAFE Homes Inflation AverageInvestor

20-YEAR ANNUALISED RETURNS BY ASSET CLASS (1999 - 2019)

// Missing the best timing

For example, even if investors sell/take profit in a timely manner, they often re-enterthe market, citing will wait till there is less while often, this isalready adequately discounted in market expectations.

// Rebalancing is important

Regular portfolio rebalancing is needed to refresh the portfolio as the portfolio drifts away from the target asset allocation and become over- or under-exposed to any particular asset class.

For example, if equities appreciate 25% and bonds return 5% in a period, the weighting increases in the equity portion of the portfolio.

Hence, this should be rebalanced back to the original intended target weighting.

Typically, a portfolio should be reviewed quarterly to see if any rebalancing is required.


Examples of Portfolio Asset Allocation for different Risk Profile

10

INVESTMENT PROFILE: VERY DYNAMIC

INVESTMENT PROFILE: CONSERVATIVE

INVESTMENT PROFILE: BALANCED

STRATEGIC ASSET

ALLOCATION

TACTICAL

POSITIONING

THIS MONTH'S

TACTICAL ASSET

ALLOCATION

FIXED INCOME 50% -6% 44%

EQUITIES 30% 6% 36%

ALTERNATIVES 10% - 10%

LIQUIDITY 10% - 10%

STRATEGIC ASSET

ALLOCATION

TACTICAL

POSITIONING

THIS MONTH'S

TACTICAL ASSET

ALLOCATION


EQUITIES 65% 5% 70%

ALTERNATIVES 15% - 15%

LIQUIDITY 0% - 0%

Source: BNP Paribas (Wealth Management) as of May 2020 Chart and figures are for illustration purposes only and may be subject to change.

STRATEGIC ASSET

ALLOCATION

TACTICAL

POSITIONNING

THIS MONTH'S

TACTICAL ASSET

ALLOCATION


LIQUIDITY 25% 10% 35%

Your wealth reflects the past and present,

but it also shapes your plans for the future.

Structuring your wealth should be a two-

fold investment process with strategic asset

allocation focusing on achieving your

investment objectives in the long-term, as

well as tactical asset allocation fine-tuning

the long-term strategy to capture short-

term opportunities in the financial markets.

11

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