Strategic Analysis of India’s National River-

Linking Project [NRLP]

Contours of NRLP… Building 30 links, 3000 small and large

reservoirs, 12500 km of canals to link 36 Himalayan and Peninsular rivers to effect 178 km3 of inter-basin water transport.

35 MHa of new irrigated area; 35 GW of hydro-capacity; navigation and flood control benefits.

Gestation Period: Proposed=2016; Most Likely=2050

Cost = Rs 560,000 cr. at 2002 prices (US $ 120 Billion); 1 - 1.5% of India’s GDP for the next 3 decades.

Largest infrastructure project anywhere, ever. Five times the size of the ……Three Gorges Project.

Why do we need a Research Project… Hardened positions with little analysis

Critics complaint that government has not done good analysis of alternatives

Government says that considering the magnitude of the crisis, NRLP is the only option

Key Missing Issues: What is the magnitude of crisis itself? How was interlinking chosen as the best available option What is the scope of the alternatives? How do we ensure that there will be implementation

efficiency - time and cost overruns - and O&M would be done better than before?

What would it takes to implement alternative solutions on national scale?

Project Goal…Promote a balanced, analytical and informed national discourse on India's Water Future 2050, and approaches to shaping it, including through the River-Linking project

Support South Asia’s quest for food livelihoods and water security

Capitalize on the uncommon opportunity created by the NRLP

…and Purpose

Specific Objectives… Build scenarios of what India will be like—its

economy, society, demographics, habitat, and environment – in 2025 and 2050, and with what implications for its water future?

Analyze whether NRLP is an adequate, cost effective and sustainable response—in socio-ecological as well as political terms--towards meeting the water challenge.

Sew together a clutch of institutional and policy interventions into a National Water Sector Perspective Plan (NWSPP) as a fallback strategy.

Identify best practices to implement the NRLP as well as the NWSPP

Concluding Workshop VI: Planning for a Food, Livelihoods and Water Secure India 2050

Phase III12 Months

Phase II15 Months

Phase I9 Months

OUTPUTACTIVITIESPHASE

11 Studies, Synthesis & National Workshop I

A Sharp, Well-Rounded Prognosis of India’s Water

Future - 2025/2050 & of the Water Challenge Facing the

Nation

Phase II A Phase II B16

Studies, Synthesis

& National Worksho

p II

7 Studies,

Synthesis &

National Worksho

p III

Phase III APhase III B14 Studies, Synthesis &

National Workshop

IV

8 Studies, Synthesis &

National Workshop

V

Phase II A Phase II BHow adequate, complete and

cost-effective a response is the River-Linking

Project to India’s Water

Challenge 2050?

How to maximize net social benefit of the River-Link Project

Phase III AIf NRLP fails to take off, how else can India

effectively meet its Water

Challenge 2050?

Phase III AHow best to

put into operation the

National Perspective

Plan

Phase-wise Activities and Methods…

The 3 years ahead…

A Sharp, Well-Rounded Prognosis of India’s Water Future - 2025/2050 & of the Water Challenge Facing the

Nation

Environmental Water Demand

India’s Macro

Hydrology

Domestic and

Industrial Water

Demand

Indian Agriculture

and Irrigation

Food Security and

Trade Liberalizatio

n

Regional Patterns in Economic Growth

Demographic Projections

Phase I…

Revisiting Water

Availability and

Demand

[1] How adequate, complete and cost-effective a response is the River-Linking Project to India’s Water Challenge

2050?[2] How to maximize net social benefit of NRLP?

Institutions and Political

Economy

Env’tal and Ecological Valuations

Economic Analysis

Financial Feasibility

Technical Feasibility

Implementation

Effectiveness

Social Cost-Benefit

Analyses

Phase II…

[1] If the NRLP fails to take off, how else can India effectively meet its Water Challenge 2050?

[2] How best to put into operation the NWSPP?

Water Institutions and Policies

Water Demand

Management

Virtual Water

Transfers

Ganges Water

Machine

Decentralized Water

Harvesting

Alternative Energy

Sources and Scenarios

Inter-Sectoral

Competition

Water Use Efficiency

and Productivity

Phase III…

Key Strengths… Impart substance and quality to the national

discourse on NRLP; Help India think through its long term water

challenge and evolve a fall-back strategy to meet it; Rally a broad alliance of Indian researchers and

institutions to participate in a distributed research and dissemination program;

Allocate over 70% of the resources requested to NARES institutions; and

Leverage substantial ‘knowledge equity’ and funds IWMI contributes as matching resources.

Thank You…