strategi bisnis di era - manajemen.darmajaya.ac.id filemining, construction, media, pharmacy,...
TRANSCRIPT
STRATEGI BISNIS DI ERA
Prof. Ir. Roy Sembel, MBA, PhD, CSATwitter/Instagram: @ProfRoySembel LinkedIn / FB: Prof. Roy Sembel
LAMPUNG, 8 JULI 2019
Prof. Ir. Roy Sembel, MBA, Ph.D, CSA
• More than 35 years of balanced work experience in business and academia, including as a Writer, Speaker, Trainer, Entrepreneur, Investor
• Have facilitated hundreds of training / seminar for more than 100 clients (multinational / state-owned / local companies) from variety of sectors (Financial services/banks, Consumers goods, Telecom, Property, Energy, Mining, Construction, Media, Pharmacy, Governement, NGO, etc)
• Finance Professor & former Dean, IPMI International Business School
• Co-Owner / Co-founder MDS (Data Science), MIOTA (Internet of Things)
• Previous work experiences: McKinsey & Co Jakarta, ABN AMRO Bank Amsterdam, Bank Niaga, Jakarta Futures Exchange, Vriens & Partner, etc
• Author / Writer of more than 30 books and 1000 articles
• Studied at IPB, Rotterdam School of Management Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Wharton School University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia, University of Pittsburgh
2
5
COMMUNICATION:
• E-mail: [email protected]
• Twitter: @ProfRoySembel
• Instagram: @ProfRoySembel
• LinkedIn: Prof. Roy Sembel
• Facebook: Prof. Roy Sembel
• HP/WA: 0818 773 662
7
AGENDA
• ERA DISRUPTIF EKONOMI BARU
• PERKEMBANGAN DAN PELUANG DI ERA 5G
• PEMBERDAYAAN BISNIS DI ERA 5G
• Q&A
9
SPEED HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
Era
Length of period
[years]
Speed [km/jam] Time to cycle Earth
Agrarian 3-5000
(Age)
3-5
(Human)
3-5
(Years)
Industrial 3-500 (Revolution) 3-50
(Auto)
.3-.5
(Months)
Post-industrial 3-50
(Trend)
3-500
(Plane)
.03-.05
(Days)
Friction-free 3-5
(Fad)
3-5000 (Network) .003-.005 (Hours)
Sumber: Diolah dari T. G. Lewis, The friction-free economy
11
DISRUPTION:OLD ECONOMY ➔ NEW ECONOMY
DISRUPTION
Capital Mobility
Digitization /E-commerce
Liberalization
New market structure
New industry structure
New firm structure
New business model structure
NEW ECONOMY
OLDECONOMY
13
The rise of
the new
economy
Transparency &
Competition
NEW ECONOMY: HIGHER RETURN & RISK
• More choices
• 24-hour services
• Just a ‘click’ away
•Interaction costs
•Transformation costs
• Faster natural selection
• ‘Sticks and carrots’ to
become more eficient &
inovative
• More and faster
interaction &
transactions
• Globalization dan
localization
•Unbundling &
reassembling
business
organization,
government,
financial
instruments
HIGHER
RETURN & RISK
17
AGENDA
• ERA DISRUPTIF EKONOMI BARU
• PERKEMBANGAN DAN PELUANG DI ERA 5G
• PEMBERDAYAAN BISNIS DI ERA 5G
• Q&A
SWOT ANALYSIS for the EconomySTRENGHTS:
WEAKNESSES:
Cryonism (KKN)
Law enforcement
Low Human Development Index
Lack of quantity/quality infrastructure
Market distortion
Week PR
Democracy/Political maturity still in transition
OPPORTUNITIES:
THREATS:
Physical terrorism
Economic terrorism
Tropical diseases
Volatility of commodity prices
Natural disasters
Some highlights on Indonesia
• 4th most populous country, total population in 2018 ~ 265 million, with rising middle class
• GDP ranking: 16th (Nominal), 7th (Purchasing Power Parity adjusted)
• Top 3 highest GDP growth among G20 countries• Rich in combined marine and land biodiversity• Rich in cultural and natural heritage• Strategic location between 2 continents (Asia and
Australia) and 2 oceans (Indian and Pacific) • Advantage of having demographic bonus in the
next 15-20 years• Huge Digital business opportunities
20
PROSPECT OF BUSINESS IN 2019 & BEYOND
22
•Domestic Stocks ➔ Long-term
investment, short-term trading
•EBA, REITs, Property
•Risk management / hedging
•Gold, Currency ➔ Trading
•Businesses that leverage social media
/ e-Commerce & Block-Chain
•FinTech, IoT, Big Data Analytics, e-
Platform, etc.
•Travel, Tourism, Transportation
•Infrastructure, alternative energy,
recycle business, modern retail outlet,
international-quality education,
healthcare / hospitals, etc
•Relatively low interest rate
•Global V.U.C.A
•GDP per capita ~ $ 4000
•Pressure on IDR & IHSG
•GDP growth still ~ 5%
•Inflation ~ 3%
•Mobile subscriber > 350 mn
•Infrastructure & Maritime
development
•Domestic consumption /
Rising middle class
•Demographic Bonus
IPMI Executive Education Capabilities
32
USA 2010$14,5 T
Japan 2010
$5,7 T
Indonesia 2017$1,01 T
Indonesia 2038$5,7 T
Indonesia 2050
$14,5 T
TOTAL NOMINAL GDP
RANK 16 RANK 4
33
AGENDA
• ERA DISRUPTIF EKONOMI BARU
• PERKEMBANGAN DAN PELUANG DI ERA 5G
• PEMBERDAYAAN BISNIS DI ERA 5G
• Q&A
35
“Gales of Creative Destruction”
Joseph Alois
Schumpeter
LONG RUN COMPETITION:
NOT (price and output)
competition which counts,
BUT competition from
new commodity,
new technology,
new source of supply,
(or) new type of
organization
36
• 1+1=2
• Two separate revolutions
• Wireless datacom enabling technologies
• Change in human behavior
• 1+1>2
• Wireless and datacom enhance each other
• Standards drive massive application and service development
• Revolution in human behavior and society
•
• Datacom is everything. Everything is wireless
• All “gadgets” are addressable in one uniform network
• Change beyond imagination
• WIRELESS +
INTERNET
Fundamental change in the way we live & behave
MATRIX
-00 00-09 10-
WIRELESS
SERVICE
REVOLUTION
PETAHANA BIASANYA DALAM POSISI BAHAYASAAT SITUASI BERUBAH CEPAT
38
Attackers advantage
•Speed culture
•Greenfield business design
•Customer cherry picking
•Business system slicing
•Economic webs
•Shareholder value focus
Defenders dilemma
•Complacency
•Conventional mindset
•Cannibalization fears
•Channel conflict
•Curse of the deep pocket
•Current income focus
Prof. Roy Sembel, Ph.D 39
• TRANSPORTASI: GOJEK, GRAB, UBER,
DRIVERLESS CAR, DRONE
• KORAN: WEBNEWS
• TELEVISI: YOU-TUBE
• HOTEL: AIRBnB, TRAVELOKA
• RITEL: TOPED, BUKALAPAK, ALIBABA
• PENDIDIKAN: TED, COURSERA,
KHANACADEMY
• BANK: FINTECH
• MATA UANG: E-MONEY, BITCOIN
DISRUPSI DAN DISKONTINUITAS
Focus Area
Lo
wH
igh
Tec
hn
ica
l S
op
his
tic
ati
on
Product Customer
4
Solusi web
terintegrasi bagi
pelanggan usaha
kecil menengah
3
Memperluas
penasaran produk
dengan
mengeksploitasi
kemungkinan
teknologi baru
2
Produk IJK
tradisional untuk
segmen tertentu
1
Penawaran online
sistem bisnis
tradisional
Opportunities for Finance Industry in Indonesia
41
EVOLUTION OF CONSUMER NEEDS THROUGH STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT
• Financial advice – e.g., tax, estate
and investment planning
• Trading activities
• Income protection
• Highly sophisticated investment
needs – e.g., derivative-based
instruments
• Wide transaction needs
• Need for consumer finance
• Increasing sophistication of
investment needs
• Strong protection needs
• Retirement and pension
Developing
• Needs are simple
• Need for security is high
• Shorter-term focus
• Tend to hold liquid assets
Embryonic
• Borrowing needs arise with
increasing consumerism
• Medium-term focus – e.g., savings
for home and education
• Limited transaction needs
• Needs to protect wealth and
income beginning to emerge
Emerging
Advanced
MODEL OF MARKET DEVELOPMENT
Differentiators
Consumer
sophistication
Urbanization
Economy/
Market
structure
Financial
infrastructure
Regulation
Low education
level
Predominantly
rural
Monopolistic /
protected
markets
Basic and
unsophisticated
Minimal
regulations
Embryonic
Rising
education level
Rising centers
of urbanization
Relaxing
controls
Capital market
in its infancy
Developing
regulations,
often vague
Emerging
High education
level but basic
consumer Fin
Service
awareness
Liberalizing
Developing and
growing, lacking
depth
Highly regulated
Developing
Extensive PFS
consumer
information
Free market
Advanced capital
markets
Liberal and self-
regulated
Advanced
Population concentrated in urban
areas
Indonesia
4
3
FINANCE INDUSTRY OPPORTUNITIES: 4 GROWTH DIMENSIONS
Finance Industry
opportunities
Channels:
How are
channels
evolving to meet
customer and
supplier needs?
Customers:
What are customers’
financial needs and how
do they behave to fill
these needs?
Geography:
Where are the most
attractive markets?
Products:
Which products
offer greatest
growth and profit
potential?
44
REDUCTION IN INTERACTION COSTS ➔ INCREASE ROLES OF EXTERNAL NETWORKS
• TRANSACTION COST ECONOMICS
• Ronald Coase & Oliver Williamson
• Transaction: smallest unit of economic activity
– Conducted through
• market by price mechanism or
• command/control by hierarchy inside a firm.
TREND
TOWARDS
STRATEGIC
ALLIANCES
RELIANCE ON
EXTERNAL
NETWORKS
Product
manu-
facturingChecks Savings
Corporate
lending
Cash
manage-
ment
Trade
finance
Branches Phone ATMs
CardsConsumer
finance
Internet
Proprie-
tary
sales
&
distri-
bution
Attackers unbundle the value chain to focus on the most attractive products and channels . . .
Content
–Exciting local
language
content
Technological
enablers
–Bandwidth
–Access device
penetration
–Access device cost
–Access cost
Legal/regulatory
support
–Fraud
protection
–Government
active support
Business
propositions
–Advertising
volume
– Investment capital
–Skills
Customer
sophistication
How rapidly
are the
building
blocks for
growth likely
to fall into
place in
Indonesia?
–Purchasing power
–Trust of remote
transactions
Payment/fulfilment
systems
–Card penetration
–Payment system
–Logistics
infrastructure
E-commerce development depends on six sets of growth enablers
E- financial services opportunities
Business model
Core
Business
Non-core
financial
services
Beyond
financial
services
Venture
capital
Online
access
Online
enabler
End-user
services
Online function
Internet access, e.g. ISP
Financial
portal
General
portal
Wide
financial
products
Multiple e-
commerce
Strategic
investing
Loan
super-
market
Online
banking
Online
payments
SOME RECENT OPPORTUNITIES
• Loan to students ➔ ACA and IPMI
• Loan to seamen / sailor ➔MCSI crewing services
• P to P lending
• Crowd funding
• Securitization
IPMI Executive Education Capabilities 49
53
AGENDA
• ERA DISRUPTIF EKONOMI BARU
• PERKEMBANGAN DAN PELUANG DI ERA 5G
• PEMBERDAYAAN BISNIS DI ERA 5G
• Q&A
57
PEMBERDAYAAN BISNIS MELALUI:
• PERBAIKAN PARADIGMA
• PEMANFAATAN TEKNOLOGI
• REFORMASI BUDAYA/MINDSET/LEARNING
59
PENTINGNYA PERBAIKAN INFRASTRUKTUR
• PEMBERDAYAAN OTDA PERLU PERBAIKAN DAN
PENINGKATAN INFRASTRUKTUR TRANSPORTASI DAN
KOMUNIKASI ➔PELUANG BAGI UMKM LOKAL
•BRAINWARE / MINDWARE:
•REFORMASI SDM UNTUK BERSIAP MENERIMA PELUANG
•ENTREPRENEURSHIP SPIRIT
•VISIONARY LEADERSHIP
•PEMBERDAYAAN TEKNOLOGI UNTUK PEMBERDAYAAN
MASYARAKAT ➔PELUANG BAGI UMKM LOKAL
•TREND DARI FREE TRADE KE FAIR TRADE ➔PERJUANGAN
MELALUI LOBBY POLITIK
•OTONOMI DAERAH: DARI BIROKRAT KE ULTRAPRENEUR
60
SUMBER REJEKI BARU:ASET INTANGIBLE (ATB)
Intangibles
•Properti intelektual•SDM Unggul•Merek / Brand •Network•dll
61
INTANGIBLES DI LAMPUNGLOKASI: ANTARA SUMAERA DAN JAWA
POTENSI PERDAGANGAN DAN PARIWISATA
PEMANFAATAN TEKNOLOGI TELEMATIKA
WISMAN DAN WISNUS
ENAK DI MATA, ENAK DI HATI, ENAK DI LIDAH
THE ECOCULTURAL BEAUTY OF ASIA
POTENSI KEHUTANAN, PERTANIAN, DAN KELAUTAN/PERIKANAN
JALUR ENERGI DAN PERTAMBANGAN
KEAMANAN ?
INFRASTRUKTUR PENUNJANG ?
HUMAN CAPITAL ?
62
62
W.I.S.D.O.M
WATAK: SWOT, kenali situasi sekarang
IMPIAN/INGIN: Tujuan, SMARTER Goal
SIASAT: Strategi, Road Map
DIDIK: Pengetahuan, Ketrampilan, Sikap
OTAK/OTOT: Kerja cerdas / kerja cerdas
METER : Ukur pencapaian
MONITOR Pantau kemajuan
MANAJEMEN Kesejalanan antara rencana dan aksi
63
THE WISDOM WAY
Assess
current situation1
Formulate
strategy
Work Smarter and Harder
3
5
Determine
Objectives2
6MeterMonitorManajemen
4Learning
W
I
S
D
O
M
Mindset
• Related to your belief about ability
• Creates a whole mental world for you to live in
• Fixed mindset – ability cannot change
• Growth mindset – ability can change (grow)
Other examples …
….Einstein's teacher said that
he was ‘academically subnormal’
….Michael Jordan's coach said that
he wasn’t more talented than other people…
…..Walt Disney was told that
he lacked ‘creative imagination’
72
SUCCESS AS ENTREPRENEURS
DEPEND MORE ON
HABITS / EQ, CQ, SQ
LESS ON KNOWLEDGE/
IQ
Rp
Jake Bernstein
The Investor’s Quotient
Knowledge
without
correct habits
is
powerless
74
Intrapersonal SkillChange managementStress managementTime management
Creative thinking processesGoal setting & life purpose
Accelerated learning techniques
Interpersonal SkillCommunication skillsRelationship building
Motivation skillsLeadership skills
Self-marketing skillsNegotiation skillsPresentation skills
Public speaking skills
76
Easy to predict future
Alternative Future
conditions Range of Future Totally unclear future
?
1
2
3
A B
C D
FACING FOUR LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY
77
Scenario
1.
2.
3.
4.
Value
+
+
+
+
DEFINING STRATEGY UNDER UNCERTAINTY: Definition of strategic actions
“No regrets”
Actions that will
produce results in all
scenario
•Preparing IT
Infrastructure
•Training agile
personnel
“Options”
Ensuring big results
while controlling
risks
• Pilot trial
• Limited Joint
venture
• Monitoring structure
“Big bets”
Significant results only
for some scenario
• Akuisisi atau investasi
modal besar
• Meluncurkan inisiatif
besar untuk
mengubah bentuk
industri
Definition
Example
Building
blocks
80
BUSINESS-Q
• People and Self Empowerment
• Customer Focus
• Resources Management
• Entre / Intrapreneurship
• Technology utilization
82
OPPORTUNITY IS EVERYWHEREINTERNAL
OPTIMIZE EXISTING RESOURCES
Tangible Assets
Intangible Assets
CAPACITY BUILDING
EXTERNAL
RIDING ON A TREND
GEOGRAPHY
DEMOGRAPHY
PSYCHOGRAPHY
INNOVATION
CREATING A TREND
NEW PRODUCTS
NEW WAYS OF DOING BUSINESS
NEW TECHNOLOGY
INTERNALOPTIMIZE EXISTING RESOURCES
CAPACITY BUILDING
Tangible Assets Idle space, time
Under-utilized human resources
Intangible Assets Monetize Brand
Analyze and Utilize Customer Data
Supplier network
Training and Development
Upgrading Machines
Upgrading IT
84
EXTERNAL
RIDING ON A TREND
GEOGRAPHY
PSYCHOGRAPHY
DEMOGRAPHY
GENERAL TREND Trend ICT utilization
SPECIFIC TREND / FAD Pemilu
Rebonding
Realty Show
China
Otda
Aging population
Rising middle class
Metrosexual people
Interest groups / communities
Car Club
Alumni Club
85
INNOVATION
CREATING A TREND Healthy Lifestyle
NEW PRODUCTS iPad
NEW WAYS OF DOING BUSINESS Online channel
NEW TECHNOLOGY Internet Banking
sensorConnectivity People & Process
IOT : Sensor – Connectivity – People & Process
• Vision• Position/Presence/Proxim
ity• Motion/Velocity• Temperature• Humidity/Moisture• Accoustic/Sound/Vibrati
on• Chemical/Gas• Flow• Force/load/torque/Strai
n/Pressure• Leaks/Level• Electric/Magnetic• Acceleration/Tilt
Ethernet IPv4 PAN
RFID Ipv6 LAN
SNT UDP MAN
NFC DTLS WAN
2 wave RPL
Bluetooth TELNET
Wifi MQTT
DASH DDS
Wmax CoAP
2G/GSM/EDGE,
CDMA. EVDO
XMPP
3G, GPRS HTTP
4G/LTE SOCKETS
LTE ADVANCE REST
API
• Customer relationship & Support• Behavior• Health• Location & Tracking• Financial• Analytic • Cloud• API• Upgrade & Configurations• Remote monitoring/Maintenance• Control & Maintenance• Supply Chain Management• Security• Energy• Water • Mobile Device/apps• Weather• Etc.
an IOT Company
an IOT Company
6 Industry :USD 34 – 7.6 T
INDONESIA :
1.16 %
US$ 34 – 76 BRp 493 T –
Rp 1.140 T
IOT Business Potential
1. Monitor & Understand the Condition & performance of
THINGS real time
2. Control, Reduce Cost & Improve PERFORMANCE
3. Capture, Manage & Analytic DATA to provide solution &
Better decision making
4. Create NEW businesses and new revenue stream
HOW COMPANIES CAN GAIN BENEFITS FROM IOT
Big Data ?
“Big Data” is data whose scale, diversity, and
complexity require new architecture, techniques,
algorithms, and analytics to manage it and extract
value and hidden knowledge from it
94
Change in the model for production and consumption of data
• Model of production and consumption of Data:
Old Model: Few companies are generating data, all others
are consuming data
New Model: all of us are generating data, and all of
us are consuming data
95
Sources of Big Data
Social media and networks
(all of us are generating data)Scientific instruments
(collecting all sorts of data)
Mobile devices
(tracking all objects all the time)
Sensor technology and networks
(measuring all kinds of data)
• The progress and innovation is no longer hindered by the ability to collect
data
• But, by the ability to manage, analyze, summarize, visualize, and discover
knowledge from the collected data in a timely manner and in a scalable
fashion
96
TAKE AWAYS• BE ALERT, DO NOT PANIC!
• THINK BALANCE: SHORT & LONG TERM
• PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES
• FOCUS ON FUNDAMENTALS
• MASTER BUSINESS ACUMEN
• BE QUICK, AGILE, AND NIMBLE
• RISK MANAGEMENT
Kalau anda jalan-jalan ke Tasikmalaya
Jangan lupa enjoy sambel, dan ngemil oncom
Kalau masih ada yang ingin ditanya
Jangan lupa kirim e-mail ke [email protected]/LinkedIn: Prof Roy Sembel
Twitter / Instagram: @ProfRoySembel