stockholm environment institute (ccac november 2012)
TRANSCRIPT
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Multiple Benefits of Short
Lived Climate Pollutant
Mitigation for Latin America
and the Caribbean
Johan C.I. Kuylenstierna Director, Stockholm Environment Institute York Centre
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UNEP/WMO Integrated
Assessment of Black
Carbon and
Tropospheric Ozone
Johan Kuylenstierna, Stockholm
Environment Institute, SEI, Scientific
Coordinator and lead author
Drew Shindell, NASA-GISS, Chair;
Vice-Chairs: Frank Raes, Joint
Research Centre, EC; V. Ramanathan,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography;
Kim Oanh, AIT; Luis Cifuentes,
Catholic University of Chile
Coordinating lead authors: David
Streets, Argonne National Laboratory;
David Fowler, CEH; Lisa Emberson,
SEI; Martin Williams, Kings College
London
50 Contributors, over 100 reviewers
UNEP/WMO Coordinators: Volodymyr
Demkine, UNEP / Liisa Jalkanen, WMO
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Climate and Clean Air Coalition to reduce
Short-Lived Climate Pollutants
There is a lot of scientific and political interest – Why?
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What are short-lived climate pollutants?
Multiple benefits of reducing SLCPs:
• Reduce air pollution - Protect health and crops
• Slow down near-term global warming, reduce
regional impacts of climate change
• Relatively short-lived in the atmosphere
• Act as air pollutants (except HFCs)
• One of the causes of global warming
Black carbon
Methane
Tropospheric ozone
some Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs )
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Stratospheric O3
deposition
O3
strato
sp
he
re
tro
po
sp
he
re
8 – 15 km
chemical destruction
NOX CH4 CO VOCs
chemical production
Tropospheric Ozone – formed from precursor emissions
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Lifetimes in the atmosphere
HFCs Average of mix: 15 years
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Air pollution: unfinished business on the sustainable development agenda
• about3 billion people cook and heat using open fires
• around 2 million people die each year prematurely from
illness attributable to indoor air pollution Source: WHO statistics
About 1.2 –Urban (3.7 – urban plus rural) million premature
deaths each year due to outside air pollution.
Outdoor air pollution
Indoor air pollution
Progress towards global
environmental goals
(UNEP GEO-5)
“little or no progress”
“Indoor air pollution from particulate matter continues to
have major health impacts, particularly on women and
children.”
“Some progress” : Despite some
progress, outdoor air pollution
continues to have serious impacts on
the environment & human health.
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Ground level ozone is increasing
Source: UNEP GEO-5, HTAP
Due to methane
and other
precursors
Reducing ground level ozone:
• protects public health
• reduces ozone damage to crops
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Impact of the Tropospheric Ozone on Crop yields
Exposure of wheat to ozone in Pakistan
Filtered „Clean‟ air Air with
ambient
ozone
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Global and regional temperature changes relative to
2009 projected under the Assessment reference
scenario for different global regions
LAC vulnerable to warming
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Black carbon measures
• addressing emissions from incomplete
combustion
- BC, OC, methane, CO, NMVOCs
Methane measures
• reducing methane emissions
A package of 16 measures can substantially reduce
emissions and achieve multiple benefits
• No technical breakthroughs
• These measures already implemented in many countries
• Cost-effective
• Mitigation measures ranked by net climate impact (using GWP) of emission
changes
• Considering CO, CH4, BC, OC, SO2, NOX, NMVOCs, and CO2
• Picked the top measures – about 90% of warming benefit
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The measures aiming at reducing methane emissions
Intermittent aeration -paddy Recovery from oil and gas
Recovery from livestock manure /change feed Recovery from landfill
Recovery from wastewater
Coal mine methane capture Reducing pipeline leakage
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The measures aiming to reduce black carbon
emissions
Improved biomass stoves Modern coke ovens Remove big smokers / DPF
Cooking with clean fuel
Pellet biomass heating stoves
Improved brick kilns
Coal briquettes replacing coal Reduce agricultural burning Reduce flaring
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Effect of measures on emissions projected in 2030 relative to
Reference emissions in 2030
9 BC measures fully implemented in 2030 7 Methane measures fully implemented in 2030
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Result for Global Temperature Change:
CO2 and SLCP measures are complementary strategies
Source: UNEP/WMO (2011). Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and
Tropospheric Ozone. UNEP, Nairobi
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The share of global temperature reduction from methane measures
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The Impact of Methane measures implemented in LAC on global
temperatures
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The share of global temperature reduction from black carbon measures
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The Impact of BC measures implemented in LAC on global temperatures
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Regional Warming Benefits Comparison of regional mean warming over land (˚C) - change in 2070
compared with 2005 for the reference scenario and the SLCP
measures scenario.
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Benefits of Reduced Warming rate in Latin America and
the Caribbean
Halving the rate of near term warming in LAC will:
- Reduce the melting rate of glaciers
- Reduce the change to agriculture implied by increased temperature (e.g. coffee)
- Reduce changes in distribution of different species, vegetation types, reducing biodiversity loss
- Allow more time for vulnerable communities to adapt
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Time series estimates of glacier mass balance in
different regions of the world (from Kaser et al., 2006).
Panel a. shows mass balance normalized to the glacierized area in each
region (specific mass balance), a measure of the relative response of
each region, while Panel b. shows change in total mass balance,
reported in millimetres of sea-level equivalent (SLE)
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National action against air pollution
can slow down global warming
Slowing down near-term global warming is important – not just focus on end of Century temperature
16 measures reduce global warming up to 2040 0.4/0.5oC relative to baseline almost halving of temperature rise; 0.7oC reduction in Arctic
Glacier lake outburst floods
Why slow down near term global warming?
• Bursting glacier lakes;
• increasing heat waves
• Melting arctic land ice, ice caps, sea level rise
• Allow vulnerable communities to adapt
• Reduce biodiversity impacts
Cannot replace CO2 reductions – we need both –
1. Reducing short-lived climate forcers: slow down near-term global warming
2. CO2 reductions for long term climate protection
Near-term framing
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In Latin America and the Caribbean
about 39,000 premature deaths
would be avoided each year
HEALTH IMPACTS: Implementing the Black
Carbon measures avoids about 2.4 million
premature deaths globally each year
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CROP YIELD BENEFITS:
About 32 (range 21-57) million tonnes yield loss avoided
in 2030 A. Methane measures
reduces air pollution & saves lives P
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CROP YIELD BENEFITS:
About 32 (range 21-57) million tonnes yield loss avoided
in 2030 B. Black Carbon measures
reduces air pollution & saves lives P
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Crop Benefits in Different Countries
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SLCPs as a way to achieve development
goals (MDGs and Beyond)
Issue of Short-Lived Climate Pollutants is closely
linked to many MDGs - pressing needs in LAC:
• Health
• Sustainable energy access
• Food security
• Urban development: waste, sanitation/
sewerage, and sustainable transport
• Adverse climate change impacts
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GROUP 1: Cost Savings or Low Cost
e.g. Recovery and utilization of vented gas during oil production;
Replacement of traditional brick kilns with more efficient kilns
GROUP 2: Moderate Cost,
e.g. Coal mines: oxidation of ventilation methane
GROUP 3: High Cost,
e.g. Applying Euro VI/6 standards to vehicles
How much does it cost?
Costs of implementing 16 measures
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Black carbon measures
• Improved stoves
• Upgraded brick kilns
Methane measures
• Recovery from fossil fuel production
(coal mines; gas distribution)
• Waste / landfill management
How much does it cost?
Costs of implementing 16 measures
50% of black carbon and methane emission reductions:
Low cost or no-cost Recovery of methane, better fuel
efficiency
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• Addressing SLCPs is a development issue – countries reducing emissions
will benefit from improved health (avoid 2.4 million premature deaths; 40 000
in LAC+INDOOR!), crop yields (avoid > 30 million tonnes loss; approx. 5.5
million in LAC) every year
• 16 identified measures, implemented by 2030, would reduce global warming
by 0.5oC (0.2-0.7oC) in 2050 halving the rate of warming projected by the
Reference Scenario
• Substantial regional climate benefits: e.g. in the reduce warming by about
0.5 oC in LAC (range 0.2-0.7oC by 2050), reducing climate impacts over this
period
• Near-term measures would improve the chance of not exceeding 2oC
target, but only if CO2 is also addressed, starting now (complementary
strategies; not alternatives)
• The identified measures are all currently in use in different regions around
the world; much wider and more rapid implementation is required to achieve
the full benefits
• Many measures achieve cost savings over time.
Conclusions
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‘An Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and
Tropospheric Ozone’
http://www.unep.org/dewa/Portals/67/pdf/BlackCarbon_SDM.pdf
‘Near-term Climate and Clean Air Benefits: Actions for
Controlling Short-Lived Climate Forcers’
http://www.unep.org/publications/ebooks/SLCF/
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The share of global temperature reduction from methane measures
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The share of global temperature reduction from black carbon measures
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Regional Climate Changes: Preventing Disturbance of
Rainfall Patterns Change in atmospheric forcing at 2030 relative to the reference
case in the two models.
• Dark areas: where the biggest energy change to the
atmosphere occurs
• This drives regional weather pattern changes
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Observed (left) and modelled (right) surface BC
concentrations (ng/m3) (Koch et al., 2009a).
• showing rather sparse measurements but reasonable
correlation between model and measurement Source: Koch et
al., 2009a
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Black carbon and ozone concentrations (daily averages)
measured from March 2006 to February 2008 at the GAW-
WMO Global station "Nepal Climate Observatory - Pyramid"
at 5 097 m above mean sea level near Mt. Everest
showing values comparable with polluted
areas during several pre-monsoon day Source: Bonasoni et al.,
2010
550 ng m-3
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Impact of the Measures on Health and
Crop yields
• Models give PM2.5 and ozone concentrations for health and crop
yield impact assessment
• Concentration-response relationships from literature used to
evaluate global impacts
Exposure of wheat to ozone
in Pakistan Clean air
Air with
ambient
ozone
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Warming in different latitude bands due to O3 and
aerosols only following the reference scenario for
emission projections from 2010 to 2030 and then
assuming constant emissions at 2030 levels thereafter
• Largest projected increases in Arctic
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Crop Benefits in Different Countries
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Temperature changes over 20th Century
Source: NASA GISS
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Effect of measures on emissions projected in 2030 relative to 2005
9 BC measures reduce ̴80% of BC
Reference: CH4 increases 7 CH4 measures reduce ̴25% of CH4 (2005); or ̴ 40% relative to 2030
BC measures reduce CO
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Health Benefits by Country
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Annual average surface temperature change (ºC) from
implementing all measures
• Dark areas: where the biggest temperature benefit occurs
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Effect of measures on emissions projected in 2030 relative to 2005
Relative to 2005 9 BC measures fully implemented in 2030 reduce approximately: • 80% of BC emissions •. 80% of OC emissions • 65% of CO emissions • 40% of NOx emissions
7 Methane measures fully implemented in 2030 reduce approximately: 25% of methane relative to 2005 emissions or 40% of methane relative to projected 2030