stock advisory for today: buy stock of eclerx services with target price rs 1410

24
eClerx Services witnessed inline set of growth with 2.3 %(QoQ) sales growth in INR term and 4.7%(QoQ) in USD term (4% in CC term) led by some preponement of volume of work from Q4 into Q3 which has resulted into the slightly higher sequential growth. Company’s high RoE and dividend payout ratio make attractive to invest on the stock. ........................................................ ( Page : 2-4) Canara bank’s performance was muted all through despite of healthy loan growth. Canara bank was unable to translate its balance sheet growth in profit & loos account due to lower base rate among peers. Bank’s asset quality was deteriorating sequentially along with higher fresh slippage. PCR was lowest among peers (without technical write off). We are disappointed with growth parameters of the bank. We have neutral view on the stock. ..................................................................... ( Page : 19- 23) Coal India LTD : "BUY" 14th Feb 2014 Earlier we suggested, if earnings falls, then price might go beyond 256, but p/b level may be maintained , else we assume that since the company is a good dividend paying company with Roe above 30% we assume p/b should remain above 3. We see Coal India at a attractive valuation to go long from the current dips. So we stick to our previous estimates and recommend Maintain Buy CIL at price dips with a target price of Rs.307/-. ............................................................... ( Page : 16-18) CANARA BANK : "NEUTRAL" 14th Feb 2014 18th Feb, 2014 Edition : 208 IEA-Equity Strategy CIPLA : "BUY" 14th Feb 2014 Cipla Limited posted its 3QFY14 results with its standalone net revenues at Rs 2282 up 10 % YoY led by healthy growth in export business with well support from India operations to. The revenues from export business including formulations and API grew by 36 % to 1509 Cr for the quarter while domestic business grew by 9% YoY to 1044 Cr. ................................................ ( Page : 12-13) Somany Ceremics: "Outlook Challenging in near term" "REDUCE" 14th Feb 2014 At the current CMP of Rs. 131, the stock is trading at a PE of 15.1x and 11.0x of FY14E and FY15E. The company can post RoE of 17.0% and 17.1% & EPS of Rs. 8.7 and Rs. 10.8 FY14E and FY15E. We are downgrading the rating to "Reduce" and advise investors to book profits at current level. Over the longer term, we expect the efforts to introduce new ventures, curtail costs and the expected economic revival driven by an uptick in demand in the latter part of FY2015, to boost its fortunes. In the interim period, we are reducing our target multiple to 10x of FY15E and price target to Rs 115. ............................................................ ( Page : 14-15 ) eClerx Services :"Consistent Performer" "BUY" 18th Feb 2014 SUNPHARMA :Robust Performance "NEUTRAL" 17th Feb 2014 Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries limited posted 3QFY14 results above street expectations with total revenues including other operating income at Rs 4312 Cr up 50.5 % YoY led by robust growth in US formulations and Taro business. The stellar performance of company was supported well from domestic operations. The US formulation business grew by more 56 % YoY to USD 434 Mn .................................................................................................. ( Page : 10-11) State Bank of India : "BUY" 17th Feb 2014 SBIN’s profitability was declined by 34% YoY largely due to higher provisions and contingencies led by deterioration in asset quality and higher tax in order to create DTL special reserve as per suggestion by RBI. Bank’s NII grew by 13.3% YoY led by higher loan growth and stable NIM. Asset quality slightly deteriorated with GNPA stood at 5.9% versus 5.8% in previous quarter and net NPA further worsen to 3.2% against 2.9% sequentially due to lower loan loss provisions made. We value bank at Rs.1779/share which is 1.1 times of FY14E book value. .............................................................................................. ( Page : 5-9) Narnolia Securities Ltd, India Equity Analytics Daily Fundamental Report on Indian Equities

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Narnolia Securities Limited expect that eClerx Services organic revenue growth remains soft in near term, and company is very focussed on inorganic growth and expect to see growth from cable business . we recommend ”BUY”view on the stock with a target price of Rs 1410 (revised from Rs 1350) .

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Page 1: Stock Advisory for Today: Buy Stock of eClerx Services with Target Price Rs 1410

eClerx Services witnessed inline set of growth with 2.3 %(QoQ) sales growth in INR term and 4.7%(QoQ) in USD term (4% in CC term) led by

some preponement of volume of work from Q4 into Q3 which has resulted into the slightly higher sequential growth. Company’s high RoE and

dividend payout ratio make attractive to invest on the stock. ........................................................ ( Page : 2-4)

Canara bank’s performance was muted all through despite of healthy loan growth. Canara bank was unable to translate its balance sheet growth

in profit & loos account due to lower base rate among peers. Bank’s asset quality was deteriorating sequentially along with higher fresh

slippage. PCR was lowest among peers (without technical write off). We are disappointed with growth parameters of the bank. We have neutral

view on the stock. ..................................................................... ( Page : 19- 23)

Coal India LTD : "BUY" 14th Feb 2014

Earlier we suggested, if earnings falls, then price might go beyond 256, but p/b level may be maintained , else we assume that since the

company is a good dividend paying company with Roe above 30% we assume p/b should remain above 3. We see Coal India at a attractive

valuation to go long from the current dips. So we stick to our previous estimates and recommend Maintain Buy CIL at price dips with a target

price of Rs.307/-. ............................................................... ( Page : 16-18)

CANARA BANK : "NEUTRAL" 14th Feb 2014

18th Feb, 2014

Edition : 208

IEA-Equity

Strategy

CIPLA : "BUY" 14th Feb 2014

Cipla Limited posted its 3QFY14 results with its standalone net revenues at Rs 2282 up 10 % YoY led by healthy growth in export business with

well support from India operations to. The revenues from export business including formulations and API grew by 36 % to 1509 Cr for the

quarter while domestic business grew by 9% YoY to 1044 Cr. ................................................ ( Page : 12-13)

Somany Ceremics: "Outlook Challenging in near term" "REDUCE" 14th Feb 2014

At the current CMP of Rs. 131, the stock is trading at a PE of 15.1x and 11.0x of FY14E and FY15E. The company can post RoE of 17.0% and 17.1%

& EPS of Rs. 8.7 and Rs. 10.8 FY14E and FY15E. We are downgrading the rating to "Reduce" and advise investors to book profits at current level.

Over the longer term, we expect the efforts to introduce new ventures, curtail costs and the expected economic revival driven by an uptick in

demand in the latter part of FY2015, to boost its fortunes. In the interim period, we are reducing our target multiple to 10x of FY15E and price

target to Rs 115. ............................................................ ( Page : 14-15 )

eClerx Services :"Consistent Performer" "BUY" 18th Feb 2014

SUNPHARMA :Robust Performance "NEUTRAL" 17th Feb 2014

Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries limited posted 3QFY14 results above street expectations with total revenues including other operating income

at Rs 4312 Cr up 50.5 % YoY led by robust growth in US formulations and Taro business. The stellar performance of company was supported

well from domestic operations. The US formulation business grew by more 56 % YoY to USD 434 Mn

.................................................................................................. ( Page : 10-11)

State Bank of India : "BUY" 17th Feb 2014

SBIN’s profitability was declined by 34% YoY largely due to higher provisions and contingencies led by deterioration in asset quality and higher

tax in order to create DTL special reserve as per suggestion by RBI. Bank’s NII grew by 13.3% YoY led by higher loan growth and stable NIM.

Asset quality slightly deteriorated with GNPA stood at 5.9% versus 5.8% in previous quarter and net NPA further worsen to 3.2% against 2.9%

sequentially due to lower loan loss provisions made. We value bank at Rs.1779/share which is 1.1 times of FY14E book value.

.............................................................................................. ( Page : 5-9)

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

India Equity AnalyticsDaily Fundamental Report on Indian Equities

Page 2: Stock Advisory for Today: Buy Stock of eClerx Services with Target Price Rs 1410

eClerx Services

1M 1yr YTD

Absolute 20.4 26.3 30.6

Rel. to Nifty 14.6 20.5 16.3

Current 2QFY14 1QFY14

Promoters 52.95 52.88 53.13

FII 26.21 22.37 21.38

DII 11.27 14.72 14.80

Others 9.57 10.03 10.69

Financials3QFY14 2QFY14 (QoQ)-% 3QFY13 (YoY)-%

Revenue 219.5 214.6 2.3 170.8 28.5

EBITDA 88.81 92.8 (4.3) 66.8 32.9

PAT 62.33 67.91 (8.2) 49 27.2

EBITDA Margin 40.5% 43.2% (270bps) 39.1% 140bps

PAT Margin 28.4% 31.6% (320bps) 28.7% (30bps)

2

Average Daily Volume 18894

View and Valuation: We expect that company’s organic revenue growth remains soft in

near term, and company is very focussed on inorganic growth and expect to see growth

from cable business . Furthermore, stable billing rate will support to maintain margin.

Company’s high RoE and dividend payout ratio make attractive to invest on the stock.

At a CMP of Rs 1212, stock trades at 12.5x FY15E earnings, we recommend ”BUY”

view on the stock with a target price of Rs 1410 (revised from Rs 1350) .

On demand environment, it indicated that there is no significant change and expects

to grow same pace of 10-15% in USD terms in the medium term. On margins, it

indicated that it will continue to operate in the mid 30% going forward. It continues to

look at inorganic opportunities.

Margin declined and expects to maintain stablity on demand: The OPM fell by 310 bps

QoQ to 37% on the back of rise in Selling and Distribution costs due to increase in onsite

headcount, bonus and commission and travel. Accordingly, PAT margin down by 270bps

to 28.6%, sequentially. Management is very confident to maintain its PAT margin at 30-

31% in near term.

Good growth from Financial Services: The Cable business grew faster on the low base,

Financial Services also grew fast during the quarter. In the Cable business, there is lot of

demand for its services. The digital and digital market has lot of demand and is another

key area.

Growth from Emerging revenue: It added 2 clients during the quarter. The Revenue

growth from Top 5 grew by 8% YoY and Emerging grew by 35% QoQ respectively during

the quarter. The Emerging revenue has continued to outpace growth in strategic clients

in line with firm strategy.

Approval on SEZ: The SEZ approval received for new floor in Airoli and planned go live

on April 2014 (600 Seats). It is discussing additional floors in Airoli to consolidate

Mumbai facilities, subject to regulatory approval. During the quarter, the Final payment

is done for Agilyst acquisition (for the total acquisition cost ~ $21 million) during the

quarter.

Nifty 6048

Market DataBSE Code 532755

NSE Symbol ECLERX

Mkt Capital (Rs Crores) 3701

Stock Performance

1 year forward P/E

Rs, Crore

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Share Holding Pattern-%

Buy

Previous Target Price 881

Upside -11%

Inline numbers , and expects to report better than NASSCOM guidance(FY14E);

eClerx Services witnessed inline set of growth with 2.3 %(QoQ) sales growth in INR

term and 4.7%(QoQ) in USD term (4% in CC term) led by some preponement of volume

of work from Q4 into Q3 which has resulted into the slightly higher sequential growth .

It expects some impact of this on Q4 growth. While, PAT decline by 7.2%, sequentially.Change from Previous 22%

52wk Range H/L 1255/599

"Consistent Performer"

CMP 1212

Target Price 1074

Result update

"BUY"18th Feb' 14

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 3: Stock Advisory for Today: Buy Stock of eClerx Services with Target Price Rs 1410

(1) The billing rates expected to be flat to slight uptick for the FY15E.

(2) Expect to see similar set of environment in FY 15E than FY14.

(4) Tax rate is expected to see at 23% mark in FY15E.

(5) It continues to look at inorganic opportunities.

(6) Expects to maintain 51% of payout ratio.

3

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

(3) On margins, it indicated that it will continue to operate in the mid 30% (30-31%) going

forward.

Key Facts from Cnference Call

Margin-%

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Employee Metrics-%

Attrition decreased from 36% (2QFY14) to

31.8% .

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

eClerx Services.

Sales (USD) and Sales growth-%(QoQ)

On $term, Sales growth was up by 4.7%

(QoQ) and 2.3% on INR term,

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 4: Stock Advisory for Today: Buy Stock of eClerx Services with Target Price Rs 1410

4

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Financials;

eClerx Services.

Operating Metrics;

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Sales Mix-Geography 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14

North America 70% 70% 71% 75% 75% 74% 74% 74% 74%

Europe 24% 23% 20% 19% 18% 21% 21% 21% 21%

RoW 6% 7% 9% 6% 7% 5% 5% 5% 5%

Client Concentration 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14

Top-5 86% 87% 80% 79% 78% 78% 76% 75% 74%

Client addition 8 10 8 4 7 6 5 5 2

Total Clients 53 55 54 54 60 73 61 65 65

DSO,days 52 29 30 41 31 33 35 41 33

Billing Mix 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14

FTE 94% 95% 93% 93% 92% 91% 94% 95% 95%

SEZ Revenue 67% 72% 62% 58% 59% 60% 60% 60% 60%

Employee Metrics 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14

Employee Utilization 72% 72% 68% 68% 69% 69% 66% 65.0% 66%

Attrition - 30.9% 23.2% 30.2% 26.5% 27.3% 25.2% 36.4% 31.8%

Total Employee - 4405 5545 5760 5837 5954 6389 6543 6620

Employee Cost 39% 45.1% 42.4% 46.0% 45.0% 45.2% 44.1% 42.2% 43.6%

Rs, Cr FY11 FY12 FY13A FY14E FY15E

Sales 366.12 495.19 660.58 852.54 1020.87

Empolyee Cost 147.65 203.87 295.28 370.00 449.18

Other expenses 59.87 79.28 108.47 130.44 158.24

EBITDA 158.6 212.04 256.83 352.10 413.45

Dep 9.13 12.89 25.53 33.10 43.10

EBIT 149.47 199.15 231.3 319.00 370.35

INT 0 0 0 0.00 0.00

Other Income 0 0 0 28.99 10.21

PBT 149.47 199.15 231.3 347.98 380.56

Tax 16.76 39.47 39.34 83.52 91.33

PAT 132.71 159.68 191.96 264.47 289.22

Growth-%

Sales-% 39.5% 35.3% 33.4% 29.1% 19.7%

PAT-% 80.5% 20.3% 20.2% 37.8% 9.4%

Margin-%

EBITDA 43.3% 42.8% 38.9% 41.3% 40.5%

EBIT 40.8% 40.2% 35.0% 37.4% 36.3%

PAT 36.2% 32.2% 29.1% 31.0% 28.3%

Expense on Sales-%

Employee cost-% 40.3% 41.2% 44.7% 43.4% 44.0%

Other expenses-% 16.4% 16.0% 16.4% 15.3% 15.5%

Tax Rate% 11.2% 19.8% 17.0% 24.0% 24.0%

Valuations

CMP 783.95 625 650 1212 1212

OS.Cr 2.9 2.958 2.9875 2.99 2.99

EPS 45.76207 53.9824 64.2544 88.52 96.81

NW 238.32 342.92 438.32 615.20 816.84

BVPS 82.17931 115.93 146.718 205.93 273.42

P/E (x) 17.131 11.5778 10.116 13.69 12.52

P/BV (x) 9.54 5.39 4.43 5.89 4.43

RoE-% 55.7% 46.6% 43.8% 43.0% 35.4%

Page 5: Stock Advisory for Today: Buy Stock of eClerx Services with Target Price Rs 1410

1473

1779

1776

21

-

1M 1yr YTD

Absolute -10.2 -35.8 -35.8

Rel.to Nifty -5.9 -37.9 -37.9

Current 4QFY13 3QFY1

3Promoters 62.3 62.3 62.3

FII 8.8 8.9 9.8

DII 17.9 17.7 16.7

Others 10.9 11.1 11.2

Financials Rs, Cr

2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

NII 32526 43291 44331 49365 58302

Total Income 48351 57643 60366 65288 74225

PPP 25336 31574 31081 29105 33401

Net Profit 8265 11707 14105 10241 11765

EPS 130.2 174.5 206.2 149.7 172.0

5

Change from Previous

SBIN Vs Nifty

Share Holding Pattern-%

9.44 lakh

Nifty 6048

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Stock Performance

52wk Range H/L

Operating expenses increased by 31.4% YoY to Rs.9212 cr in which employee cost

and other operating cost increased by 35% and 25.7% respectively. Employee cost

was led by higher provision for pension and gratuity to the tune of Rs. 1355 cr as

against Rs.743 cr in 3QFY13 and Rs.1283 cr in 2QFY14. Adjusting the same,

employee cost increased by 8% YoY. Operating profit was declined by 2.2% YoY to

Rs.7618 cr. Cost income ratio increased by 735 bps YoY to 54.7% from 47.4% in

3QFY13.

Moderate NII growth, higher operating expenses and higher provision and tax

rate led profit de growth of 34% YoY

SBI’s profitability was declined by 34% YoY largely due to higher provisions and

contingencies led by deterioration in asset quality and higher tax rate in order to

create DTL special reserve as per suggestion by RBI.

Average Daily Volume

Result update BUY

CMP

Target Price

Previous Target Price

Operating profit reported negative growth due to higher operating expenses

led by employee benefit provisions

Market Data

Upside

2469/1452

BSE Code 500112

NSE Symbol SBIN

Mkt Capital (Rs Cr) 110126

State Bank of India

During quarter SBI’s profitability declined by 34% largely due to higher

provisions and contingencies led by deteriorating asset quality and higher tax

in order to create DTL special reserve as per suggestion by RBI. However,

bank has seen growth in loan and deposits which translated into growth in

profit loss to some extent. Due to higher operating expenses, operating profit

growth was negative despite of 14% growth in revenue. We value bank at

Rs.1779/share which would be 1.1 times of FY14E’s book value.

Moderate NII growth led by lower growth in interest earnings assets than

interest bearing liabilities

Bank reported NII growth of 13.4% YoY to Rs.12641 cr lower than our expectation of

Rs. 12959 cr largely due to lower interest income from advances than higher

deposits and borrowing cost. Total income was grown by 13.7% YoY to Rs.16831 cr

supported by other income growth of 15% YoY to Rs.4190 cr. Other income growth

was led by exchange and commission income gain of Rs.2971 cr and forex income

Rs.643 cr.

"BUY"17th Feb, 2014

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 6: Stock Advisory for Today: Buy Stock of eClerx Services with Target Price Rs 1410

6

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Continue to report week trend of asset quality

During quarter bank increased provisions and contingencies by 37% QoQ to Rs. 4150 cr

due to deteriorating asset quality. In absolute term GNPA and net NPA increased by 6%

and 16% sequentially. In absolute term, GNPA and net NPA stood at 5.9% and 3.2%

versus 5.8% and 2.9% in 2QFY14 respectively. During quarter bank’s loan loss provision

increased by 29.6% sequentially and stood at Rs.23429 cr. Standard asset provisions

and depreciation provisions were Rs.196 cr and Rs.621531 cr respectively. Net

provisions were declined by 4% sequentially which resulted 16% rise in net NPA in

absolute term. Consequently provision coverage ratio without technical writ off was

declined by 475 bps QoQ to 45.2% from 50% in previous quarter.

Strong traction in loan and deposits growth

During quarter SBI’s profitability declined by 34% largely due to higher provisions and

contingencies led by deteriorating asset quality and higher tax in order to create DTL

special reserve as per suggestion by RBI. However, bank has seen growth in loan and

deposits which translated into growth in profit loss to some extent. Due to higher

operating expenses, operating profit growth was negative despite of 14% growth in

revenue. We value bank at Rs.1779/share which would be 1.1 times of FY14E’s book

value.

Loan grew by 17.4% YoY led by across the sectors. Loan to large corporate grew by 17%

YoY, mid corporate grew by 19%, SME grew by 14% and retail loan grew by 19%. Strong

traction in auto loan (21.2% YoY) and house loan (19.4% YoY) led retail loan growth.

Deposits grew by 17% YoY largely supported by 20% YoY growth in term deposits

followed by saving deposits and demand deposits which grew by 8% and 13%

respectively. Overall CASA ratio was declined by 153 bps YoY to 41%.

NIM declined on account of higher deposits cost and lower yield

SBI’s net interest margin was flat at 3.19% versus 3.18% in previous year. Domestic NIM

declined by 2 bps to 3.49% while oversea NIM declined by 1 bps sequentially to 1.49%.

Cost of deposits increased to 6.25% from 6.22% sequentially while yield on advances

inch up to 10.4% from 10.3% in previous quarter. Credit deposits ratio marginally

declined from 85.3% to 85.1%.

Valuation & View

State Bank of India

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 7: Stock Advisory for Today: Buy Stock of eClerx Services with Target Price Rs 1410

7

State Bank of India

Source: Esatwind/Company

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Moderate NII growth led by lower growth in

interest earnings assets than interest bearing

liabilities

Operating profit reported negative growth due

to higher operating expenses led by employee

benefit provisions

Moderate NII growth, higher operating

expenses and higher provision and tax rate led

profit de growth of 34% YoY

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 8: Stock Advisory for Today: Buy Stock of eClerx Services with Target Price Rs 1410

8

State Bank of India

Source: Esatwind/Company

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Quarterly Performance 3QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY13 % YoY % QoQ 3QFY14E Variation(%)

Interest/discount on advances / bills 26310 25379 22800 15.4 3.7 25937 1.4

Income on investments 8228 8137 7072 16.3 1.1 8303 -0.9

Interest on balances with Reserve Bank of India 92 106 110 -16.1 -13.0 109 -15.9

Others 241 300 362 -33.3 -19.7 349 -30.9

Total Interest Income 34870 33922 30344 14.9 2.8 34699 0.5

Others Income 4190 3278 3648 14.9 27.8 3876 8.1

Total Income 39061 37200 33992 14.9 5.0 38575 1.3

Interest Expended 22230 21671 19189 15.8 2.6 21739 2.3

NII 12641 12251 11154 13.3 3.2 12959 -2.5

Other Income 4190 3278 3648 14.9 27.8 3876 8.1

Total Income 16831 15529 14803 13.7 8.4 16835 0.0

Employee 5867 5819 4351 34.8 0.8 6364 -7.8

Other Expenses 3345 3399 2661 25.7 -1.6 3737 -10.5

Operating Expenses 9212 9218 7012 31.4 -0.1 10101 -8.8

PPP( Rs Cr) 7618 6312 7791 -2.2 20.7 6734 13.1

Provisions 4150 3029 2668 55.5 37.0 3112 33.3

PBT 3469 3283 5123 -32.3 5.7 3622 -4.2

Tax 1234 908 1727 -28.5 36.0 1087 13.6

Net Profit 2235 2375 3396 -34.2 -5.9 2535 -11.9

Balance Sheet (Rs Cr)

Deposits 1349940 1292456 1156691 16.7 4.4 1337803 0.9

Borrowings 189969 188937 148374 28.0 0.5 202402 -6.1

Investments 426728 398536 359959 18.5 7.1 415135 2.8

Loan 1148901 1103090 978115 17.5 4.2 1152774 -0.3

Asset Quality

GNPA 67799 64206 53458 26.8 5.6

NPA 37167 32151 25370 46.5 15.6

% GNPA 5.9 5.8 5.5

% NPA 3.2 2.9 2.6

PCR(%)(w/o technical write-off) 45.2 49.9 52.5

Page 9: Stock Advisory for Today: Buy Stock of eClerx Services with Target Price Rs 1410

9

State Bank of India

Source: Esatwind/Company

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Income Statement 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015EInterest/discount on advances / bills 59976 81078 90537 102590 120306

Income on investments 19826 23949 27200 32037 39720

Interest on balances with Reserve Bank of India 236 350 545 415 415

Others 1356 1144 1374 1253 1253

Total Interest Income 81394 106521 119657 136294 161693

Others Income 15825 14351 16035 15923 15923

Total Income 97219 120873 135691 152217 177616

Interest on deposits 43235 55644 67465 61066 70226

Interest on RBI/Inter bank borrowings 2562 3886 4124 10146 11668

Others 3071 3700 3737 0 0

Interest Expended 48868 63230 75326 86929 103391

NII 32526 43291 44331 49365 58302

Other Income 15825 14351 16035 15923 15923

Total Income 48351 57643 60366 65288 74225

Employee 15212 16974 18381 22795 25719

Other Expenses 7804 9095 10904 13388 15105

Operating Expenses 23015 26069 29284 36183 40824

PPP( Rs Cr) 25336 31574 31081 29105 33401

Provisions 17071 13090 11131 14253 16594

PBT 8265 18483 19950 14852 16808

Tax 0 6776 5846 4611 5042

Net Profit 8265 11707 14105 10241 11765

Deposits 933933 1043647 1202740 1383151 1590623

Change (%) 16.1 11.7 15.2 15.0 15.0

of which CASA Dep 461521 467607 539063 580923 668062

Change (%) 49 45 45 42 42

Borrowings 119569 127006 169183 215867 248248

Investments 295601 312198 350927 32037 39720

Loans 756719 867579 1045617 1202459 1382828

RatioYield on Advances 7.9 9.3 8.7 8.5 8.7

Yield on Investments 6.9 7.9 8.0 7.4 8.0

Yield on Funds 7.0 8.4 8.0 0.0 0.0

Cost of deposits 4.6 5.3 5.6 6.3 6.5

Cost of Borrowings 4.7 6.0 4.6 4.7 4.7

Cost of fund 4.6 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.6

Valuation

ROE(%) 12.7 13.9 14.3 9.3 9.8

Book Value 1023 1251 1446 1617 1617

P/BV 2.7 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.9

Page 10: Stock Advisory for Today: Buy Stock of eClerx Services with Target Price Rs 1410

1M 1yr YTD

Absolute 1.1 57.1 82.9

Rel. to Nifty 4.7 55.2 70

Current 2QFY14 1QFY1

4Promoters 63.7 63.7 63.7

FII 22.5 22.8 22.9

DII 5.7 3.2 3.1

Others 8.1 10.4 10.4

Financials Rs, Crore

3QFY14 2QFY14 (QoQ)-% 3QFY13 (YoY)-%

Revenue 4312 4207 2.5 2865 50.5

EBITDA 2000 1843 8.5 1275 56.9

PAT 1531 1362 12.4 881 73.8

EBITDA Margin 46.4% 43.8% 260bps 44.5% 190bps

PAT Margin 35.5% 32.4% 310bps 30.8% 480bps

10

SUNPHARMARobust Performance

Target Price 650

7%Upside

Change from Previous

Previous Target Price

Result Update NEUTRAL Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries limited posted 3QFY14 results above street expectations

with total revenues including other operating income at Rs 4312 Cr up 50.5 % YoY led by

robust growth in US formulations and Taro business. The stellar performance of company

was supported well from domestic operations as well. The US formulation business grew

by more 56 % YoY to USD 434 Mn while International formulation sales outside US grew

by 16 % YoY to USD 84 Mn. Overall international revenues accounted for more than 75%

of total revenues for the quarter. The Sales of branded prescription formulations in India

was Rs. 947 Cr up by 20% Yoy from Q3FY13 last year. The API business for the quarter

witness some decline with sales falls to Rs 174 Cr translating decline of 17 % YoY.Market Data

BSE Code

One Year Price vs Nifty

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

126,119

Average Daily Volume 535293

Nifty 6048

The operating EBITDA for the quarter came at Rs 1975 Cr grew by 57 % YoY and OPM

stands at 46 %.There is improvement in OPM by 200 bps during the quarter owing to

stronger operating metrics. The RM cost as percentage of sales was 14 % versus 15 % for

the same corresponding period last fiscal. The employ cost as percentage of sales was 12

% in current quarter verses 14% for 3QFY13.The company managed to control its other

expenses during the 3QFY14 and has dropped by 100 bps at 24 % of the sales.

The net profit for the quarter came at Rs 1531 Cr compared to Rs. 881Cr for Q3 last year,

up 74% YoY. The NPM for the 3QFY14 came at 36%.The other income for the 3QFY4 was

Rs 134 Cr and Tax rate was at 12 %.

The company on its R&D said that in the 3QFY14, ANDA for 5 products were filed. After

counting these, and adjusting for filings that were dropped, cumulatively ANDAs for 468

products have been filed with the USFDA (as on December 31, 2013). ANDAs for 4

products received approvals in the third quarter, taking the total number of approvals to 337

(as on December 31, 2013). ANDAs for 131 products now await USFDA approval, including

14 tentative approvals.

Mkt Capital (Rs, Cr)

The management of the company after 3QFY14 results has revised its FY14E revenue

guidance to 29 % from 25 % earlier. Guidance is at constant exchange rate. The company

further said that capex for the FY14 would be on higher side of earlier guidance. The tax

rate for the full year would be 15 % and R&D expected to be in the range of 6-8% of the

Sales for the FY'14.

The stock at its CMP of Rs 609 is trading at 22.1x of one year forward FY14E EPS of 27.60

and company has posted very strong 3QFY14 results however on account stretched

valuations we do not see much upside to stock and therefore we turn neutral with TP

650.

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Stock Performance-%

Share Holding Pattern-%

CMP 609

52wk Range H/L 650/385

NSE Symbol SUNPHARMA

524715

View & Valuation

"NEUTRAL"17th Feb' 14

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 11: Stock Advisory for Today: Buy Stock of eClerx Services with Target Price Rs 1410

11

OPM %

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

NPM %

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

There is improvement in OPM by 200 bps

during the owing to stronger operating

metrics.

The NPM for the 3QFY14 came at 36%.The

other income for the 3QFY4 was Rs 134 Cr

SUNPHARMA

Sales and PAT Trend (Rs)

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Total revenues including other operating

income came at Rs 4312 Cr up 50.5 % YoY led

by robust growth in US formulations and

Taro business.

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 12: Stock Advisory for Today: Buy Stock of eClerx Services with Target Price Rs 1410

BUY

1M 1yr YTD

Absolute -4.5 -3 -2

Rel. to Nifty -1.7 -4.3 -14

Current 2QFY14 1QFY1

4Promoters 36.8 36.8 36.8

FII 23.8 23.8 23.1

DII 10.6 10.9 10.8

Others 28.8 28.5 29.3

3QFY14 2QFY14 (QoQ)-% 3QFY13 (YoY)-%

Revenue 2282 2347 (2.8) 2070 10.2

EBITDA 403 533 (24.4) 492 -18.1

PAT 261 376 (30.6) 338 -22.8

EBITDA Margin 17.7% 22.7% (500bps) 23.8% (610bps)

PAT Margin 11.4% 16.0% (460bps) 16.3% (490bps)

12

The stock at its CMP of Rs 381 is trading at 19.58 x of one year forward FY14E EPS of Rs

19.40.The stock has reacted negatively after 3QFY14 results however we don’t see any

downside risks to our estimates. We further believe that Cipla-Medpro would be earning

accretive in medium to long term horizons and we view the recent correction a good entry

point for the stock. We maintain our view BUY for the stock with Target Price of Rs

440.

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Stock Performance-%

Share Holding Pattern-%

Mkt Capital (Rs, Cr)

View & Valuation

The management of the company after the results said that the Global respiratory unit

expects some of launches in the next year. It has set up new global respiratory team during

the quarter. The Combination inhalers planned to launch in FY'15.Company expects to be

more than 5% of Sales on the back of ramp up filings for the FY'15.The Capex is 90 Cr

during the quarter and expects to be Rs 400 Cr FY'14. The Rollover Capex of previous year

is Rs 150 Cr during the year.

One Year Price vs Nifty

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

30,591

Average Daily Volume 617290

Nifty 6,001

The operating EBITDA for the quarter under review came Rs 403 Cr and OPM at 17.88

%.The OPM declines by more than 600 bps YoY due to the increase in the R&D and the

ramp up in the Staff cost during the quarter. The employ cost as percentage of sales stands

at 14 % while it was 12 % for the same time last fiscal. The other expenses as percentage

of sales were 27% for the 3QFY14 versus 25 % in 3QFY13.The other expenditure

increased largely due to rise in R&D expenses and rise in the cost owing to filings and

setting up of the front end during the quarter. The R&D expenses 4.5% of Sales during the

quarter.

450/354

NSE Symbol CIPLA

52wk Range H/L

Market Data

BSE Code 500087

The net profits for the quarter came at Rs 261 Cr and NPM stands at 11.43 %. The Rs 40

Cr Forex gain is included in the other income during the quarter. The tax rate for the quarter

was nearly at same rate as in corresponding last quarter at 25 %.

The Company filed 10 ANDA's in the last nine months and got 6 approvals for the same

period. It has 35 ANDA's under approval as on 31st December 2013. The few of the

approval products are commercialized. Cipla Medpro formed as acquisition of

Medpro,South Africa last year added 500 Cr to top line and 50 Cr to the operating profits

during the quarter.

Target Price 440

CIPLA

Result Update

CMP 381

Cipla Limited posted its 3QFY14 results with its standalone net revenues at Rs 2282 up 10

% YoY led by healthy growth in export business with well support from India operations to.

The revenues from export business including formulations and API grew by 36 % to 1509

Cr for the quarter while domestic business grew by 9% YoY to 1044 Cr. The growth in

export revenues was primarily due to growth in anti-retroviral, anti-cancer, anti-allergic and

anti-biotic segments.15%Upside

Change from Previous

Previous Target Price

"BUY"14th Feb' 14

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 13: Stock Advisory for Today: Buy Stock of eClerx Services with Target Price Rs 1410

13

CIPLA

Business Trend

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

The revenues from export business including

formulations and API grew by 36 % to 1509

Cr for the quarter while domestic business

grew by 9% YoY to 1044 Cr.

Revenue Trend %

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

OPM & NPM Trend %

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Net revenues at Rs 2282 up 10 % YoY led by

healthy growth in export business with well

support from India operations to.

The OPM declines by more than 600 bps YoY

due to the increase in the R&D and the ramp

up in the Staff cost during the quarter.

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 14: Stock Advisory for Today: Buy Stock of eClerx Services with Target Price Rs 1410

V- Somany Ceremics Ltd.

CMP 131

Target Price 115

95

Upside -12.2%

21.1%

BSE Code 531548

NSE Symbol

61/155

452

3,109

Nifty 6,001

1M 1yr YTD

Absolute 13.2 59.9 103.2

Rel. to Nifty 16.0 58.1 97.6

3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY14

Promoters 63.3 63.3 63.3

FII 2.8 0.8 0.2

DII 1.7 1.9 2.0

Others 32.2 34.0 34.5

Valuations :

Financials Rs, Crore

3QFY14 2QFY14 (QoQ)-% 3QFY13 (YoY)-%

Revenue 284.5 305.6 -6.9% 267.2 6.5%

EBITDA 17.0 19.4 -12.8% 22.1 -23.3%

PAT 4.8 6.0 -20.5% 8.2 -41.4%

EBITDA Margin 6.0% 6.4% (40) bps 8.3% (230) bps

PAT Margin 1.7% 2.0% (30) bps 3.1% (140) bps

14

Previous Target Price

SOMANYCERA

Change from Previous

"Outlook Challenging in near term…….."

The Q3FY2014 results were weak marked by a double-digit decline in the profit after tax on the

back of subdued increase in fuel cost, dollar v/s rupee volatility and a pressure on the margin.

The management expect improvement in the demand conditions in the near term and guided a

revenue growth of 20% in FY14E-15E, however we expect the revenue growth to be

somewhere arround 12-15% and financial performance to remain weak on account of margin

pressure. Consequently, we are downgrading the rating to "Reduce" and advise investors to

book profits at current level. Over the longer term, we expect the efforts to introduce new

ventures, curtail costs and the expected economic revival driven by an uptick in demand in the

latter part of FY2015, to boost its fortunes. In the interim period, we are reducing our target

multiple to 10x of FY15E and price target to Rs 115.

Reduce

Result highlights :

Result update

Share Holding Pattern-%

Stock Performance-%

Market Data

Average Daily Volume

For Quarter Ended 2QFY14

• For the quarter ended September 2013, Somany Ceramic registered 6.5% rise in sales to Rs

284.5 crore.

• OPM fell 230 basis points to 6.0% taking OP down 8.3% to Rs 17.0 crore.

• Other income also rise 77.8% to Rs 48 lakh and interest cost decreased 8.9% to Rs 4.6 crore.

• As depreciation increased 9.1% to Rs 5.7 crore, PBT fell 41.1% to Rs 7.1 crore.

• Taxation fell 40.3% to Rs 2.3 crore (tax incidence grew from 32.5% to 32.9) and PAT fell 41.4%

to Rs 4.8 crore.

For Nine Month Ended 9MFY14

• For the nine month ended December 2013, Somany Ceramic registered 18.7% rise in sales to Rs

848.8 crore.

• However, OPM dived from 8.5% to 6.4% taking OP down 10.7% to Rs 54.5 crore.

• Other income jumped 28.1% to Rs 1 crore and interest cost decreased 8.2% to Rs 13.8 crore.

• As depreciation increased 8.7% to Rs 16.5 crore, PBT fell 20.3% to Rs 25.2 crore.

• Taxation fell to 15.5% to Rs 8.6 crore but tax incidence grew from 32.1% to 34.0% which finally

saw PAT falling 22.5% to Rs 16.6 crore.

Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)

52wk Range H/L

Management is expected to achive a top-line growth of arround 20-25% in FY14E.

Management Guidence FY14E

(Standalone) (Source: Company/Eastwind Research)

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

At the current CMP of Rs. 131, the stock is trading at a PE of 15.1x and 11.0x of FY14E and FY15E.

The company can post RoE of 17.0% and 17.1% & EPS of Rs. 8.7 and Rs. 10.8 FY14E and FY15E.

We are downgrading the rating to "Reduce" and advise investors to book profits at current

level. Over the longer term, we expect the efforts to introduce new ventures, curtail costs and

the expected economic revival driven by an uptick in demand in the latter part of FY2015, to

boost its fortunes. In the interim period, we are reducing our target multiple to 10x of FY15E

and price target to Rs 115.

1 yr Forward P/B

"Reduce"13th Feb' 14

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 15: Stock Advisory for Today: Buy Stock of eClerx Services with Target Price Rs 1410

15

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

(Ammount in crore) (Source: Company/Eastwind)

Somany Ceremics Ltd.

Key financials :

(Source: Company/Eastwind Research) (Figures In crore)

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

PARTICULAR 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E

Performance

Revenue 446 542 720 879 1054 1250 1438

Other Income 2 3 1 1 3 3 3

Total Income 448 545 721 880 1056 1253 1440

EBITDA 42 56 68 74 86 83 95

EBIT 28 41 50 56 65 59 75

DEPRICIATION 14 15 17 18 21 24 26

INTREST COST 16 13 17 21 20 17 17

PBT 14 31 34 36 48 44 60

TAX 5 10 11 11 15 14 19

Reported PAT 9 20 24 25 33 30 41

Dividend 1 2 3 3 5 6 6

EPS 2.5 5.9 6.9 7.3 9.4 8.7 11.9

DPS 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.9 1.9

Yeild %

EBITDA % 9.5% 10.3% 9.4% 8.4% 8.1% 6.6% 6.6%

PBT % 3.0% 5.6% 4.8% 4.1% 4.5% 3.5% 4.2%

NPM % 2.0% 3.8% 3.3% 2.9% 3.1% 2.4% 2.9%

Earning Yeild % 28.5% 18.8% 18.0% 19.5% 14.6% 6.6% 9.1%

Dividend Yeild % 3.9% 2.2% 2.1% 2.5% 2.2% 1.4% 1.4%

ROE % 13.5% 24.6% 23.0% 20.1% 21.3% 17.0% 19.4%

ROCE% 12.3% 13.8% 15.7% 16.6% 17.8% 9.8% 12.0%

Position

Net Worth 65 83 104 126 153 177 211

Total Debt 138 162 158 151 142 130 130

Capital Employed 202 245 262 276 295 307 341

No of Share 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

CMP 9 31 38 38 65 131 131

Valuation

Book Value 18.8 24.0 30.1 36.5 44.4 51.2 61.2

P/B 0.5 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.5 2.6 2.1

Int/Coverage 1.7 3.1 2.9 2.7 3.3 3.4 4.4

P/E 3.5 5.3 5.6 5.1 6.8 15.0 11.0

Net Sales/CE 2.2 2.2 2.8 3.2 3.6 4.1 4.2

Net Sales/Equity 6.9 6.6 6.9 7.0 6.9 7.1 6.8

Page 16: Stock Advisory for Today: Buy Stock of eClerx Services with Target Price Rs 1410

Coal India LTD.

261

307

330

18%

-7%

533278

176226 Fluctuation in Domestic and international coal price impacted coal offtake17622

6001

1M 1yr YTD

Absolute -1.3 -21.2 -21.4

Rel. to Nifty 2.8 8.8 8.6

Rescheduling Date of hearing stands a key concern3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY14

Promoters 90.0 90.0 90.0

FII 5.5 5.5 5.4

DII 2.4 2.3 2.3

Others 2.1 2.2 2.4

Realization gain on Revised Coal Price

Financials : Q3FY14 Y-o-Y % Q-o-Q % Q3FY13 Q2FY14

Net Revenue 16928 -2.3 9.8 17325 15411

EBITDA 4104 -4.3 46.9 4288 2794

Depriciation 442 5.2 -10.7 420 495

Interest Cost 10 0.0 25.6 10 8

Tax 1930 4.9 36.6 1839 1412

PAT 3894 -11.4 27.6 4395 3052(In Crs)

16

Upside

Change from Previous

Result UpdateCMP

Target Price

Previous Target Price

Market DataBSE Code

COALINDIA

CIL reported Rs.16928 Cr Sales (-2% YOY) against Rs.17325 Cr in Q3FY13 due to poor off

takes of the coal during the quarter. Q3FY14 PAT slipped to -11% to Rs.3894 Cr against

Rs.4395 Cr in Q3FY13.Q3FY14 EBIDTA/ton remained flat YOY at Rs.350/ton while it is

increased 36% through QOQ. EBIDTA margin corrected in this quarter to 24% from 18% in

Q2FY14.Depriciation slipped 11% to 442Cr against 495 Cr in Q2FY14, moderating the

burden on EBIDTA.

On the expenditure side contractual expenses increased ~20% to Rs.154/ton from

Rs.128/ton in Q2FY14.Powerfuel cost and other expenses per ton remained flat, while

cost of project per ton decreased to Rs149/ton from Rs.206/ton in the previous quarter.

Poor Realization of Coal India showed little uptick like 2% to Rs.1445/ton.NSE Symbol

52wk Range H/L

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Stock Performance-%

Share Holding Pattern-%

1 yr Forward P/B

Source - Comapany/EastWind Research

In this quarter the international coal price were relatively down by 9% against Q2FY14

while the domestic coal price were showed upward movement. So the Major domestic

consumers of coal imported coal at lower price, hence it impacted the off takes and

revenue of CIL slipped -2% YOY and unable to meet the target off takes. Govt decision

related labor strikes impacted the productions of CIL too. Sequential increase in tax rate

further contracted the NPM%. From January we have seen a recovery in international

coal price which is positive sign for CIL.

Competition Appellate Tribunal stays Rs 1,773 Crore fine on CIL, and will decide on the

matter on next hearing 16th April 2014 (Rescheduled from 11th Feb 2014). The quantum

of penalty Rs 1,773.05 Crore is equal to three per cent of the PSU's average turnover for

the last three years. We believe, A Rs 1800-crore fine could possibly mean less profits for

the company and less dividend income for its owners. But as the main owner, the

government, will pocket this amount in the form of a fine, it will not be poorer in any

way.

Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)

372/238

Nifty

Meanwhile, Coal India Ltd is likely to get additional revenue of Rs 2,119 Crore in this fiscal

on account of revision in dry fuel prices.CIL (Coal India Ltd) has revised and rationalized

the basic notified prices of all the grades of non-coking coal except GI, G2 and G5.The

estimated additional revenue due to revision of basic notified price for the current

financial year is Rs 2,119 cr. Though the incremental revenue is a positive sign but it fails

to change our previous valuation.

Average Daily Volume (Nos.)

"Buy"14th Feb' 14

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 17: Stock Advisory for Today: Buy Stock of eClerx Services with Target Price Rs 1410

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E

50234 62415 68303 69960

7573 5123 6556 8372

1755 2013 2333 2591

4580 4901 5802 6049

20481 26705 27943 28943

40390 40857 50219 53705

9843 21558 18084 16255

1673 1969 1813 1860

79 54 45 34

5595 6484 7623 7310

10868 20588 17356 17921

33 51 36 40

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

431 431 436 452

416 425 433 465

1073 1183 1441 1468

404744 390243 377447 364736

1066 1105 1155 1240

17

Coal India LTD.

We revised our estimates due to sequential poor production and off takes of CIL. We

expect modest increase in sales volumes growth during FY2013-15 on account of poor

off take capabilities of CIL. Management showed his confidence about their coal

production target and coal off take target for FY2014E, in previous quarter, which is

482mt and 492mt respectively. But Due to sequential poor production and off take we

revised the target to 464mt and 475mt respectively. Also, we expect CIL’s margins to

decline during FY2014 due to lower e-auction realizations and higher staff costs/other

expenses. We are expecting flat sales growth for 2014.Coal India Ltd sprang a positive

surprise by reporting higher-than-expected realizations as well as earnings before

interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (Ebitda). Average price realizations

increased by 2.3% sequentially to Rs.1,444.87 per tonne which is positive sign for future

growth.

Earlier we suggested, if earnings falls, then price might go beyond 256, but p/b level

may be maintained , else we assume that since the company is a good dividend paying

company with Roe above 30% we assume p/b should remain above 3. We see Coal India

at a attractive valuation to go long from the current dips. So we stick to our previous

estimates and recommend Maintain Buy CIL at price dips with a target price of Rs.307/-.

Recommendation

Cost Of Projects & Contractual

Power and fuel

contractual expenses

Employee benefit Expence

Expenditure

EBITDA

View & Outlook

P/L PERFORMANCE

Net Revenue from Operation

Avg Man Power (in numbers)

Productivity Per Man

Coal Offtake in MT

Depriciation

Interest Cost

Tax

PAT

ROE %

OPERATING MATRIX

Coal Production in MT

Revenue Generation From unit Ton

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 18: Stock Advisory for Today: Buy Stock of eClerx Services with Target Price Rs 1410

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

6316 6316 6316 6316

20956 26998 34137 42156

27273 33314 40453 48472

343 1334 1305 1078

1620 33 0 0

2545 22461 28271 31144

772 645 829 837

1404 12387 15595 20447

5443 8490 9785 12385

0 779 759 712

12035 12065 12681 12754

2211 2057 1848 3496

610 845 1017 1181

4402 5586 6071 5618

2169 3419 5663 10480

39078 45806 58203 62236

8066 11180 13478 16189

17921 21646 24688 25479

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

0.0 5.7 5.5 4.0

0.0 17.3 32.6 27.5

4.9 22.8 29.2 52.7

1.7 4.3 4.3 4.2

1.0 3.7 3.1 2.8

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

10727 12819 16323 15948

-131 -3822 3565 -6839

10596 8997 19888 9109

950 697 -10410 -1833

2163 2911 -7382 -7852

13708 12606 2095 -575

Down 21% from its 52week High

Up 14% from its 52 week Low

18

Coal India LTD.

Trade payables

Short-term provisions

Total liabilities

Intangibles

Short-term loans and advances

Total Assets

Cash and bank balances

B/S PERFORMANCE

Share capital

Reserve & Surplus

Total equity

Long-term borrowings

Short-term borrowings

Long-term provisions

Tangible assets

Capital work-in-progress

Long-term loans and advances

Inventories

Trade receivables

RATIOS

P/B

EPS

CASH FLOWS

Debtor to Turnover%

Creditors to Turnover%

Inventories to Turnover%

Trading At :

Changes In Working Capital

Net Cash From Operation

Cash From Investment

Cash from Finance

Net Cash Flow during year

Cash from Operation

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 19: Stock Advisory for Today: Buy Stock of eClerx Services with Target Price Rs 1410

213

256

-

20

1M 1yr YTD

Absolute -17.2 -52.3 -52.3

Rel.to Nifty -13.3 -54.1 -54.1

Current 1QFY14 4QFY1

3Promoters 69.0 67.7 67.7

FII 10.3 11.9 12.7

DII 12.9 13.1 13.3

Others 7.7 7.3 6.3

Financials Rs, Cr

2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

NII 7823 7689 7879 8511 12169

Total Income 10526 10617 11032 12328 15986

PPP 6107 5943 5890 6381 8792

Net Profit 4026 3283 2872 2399 3869

EPS 90.9 74.1 64.8 52.0 83.9

19

CANARA BANK

CANBK

Moderate growth in NII was due to margin compression Market Data

Upside

Canara bank’s performance was muted all through despite of healthy loan

growth. Canara bank was unable to translate its balance sheet growth in profit

& loos account due to lower base rate among peers. Bank’s asset quality was

deteriorating sequentially along with higher fresh slippage. PCR was lowest

among peers (without technical write off). We are disappointed with growth

parameters of the bank. We have neutral view on the stock.

Result update NEUTRAL

CMP

Target Price

Previous Target Price

Change from Previous

Stock Performance

Average Daily Volume

CANARA BANK Vs Nifty

Share Holding Pattern-%

1.93 lakh

Nifty 6001

On asset quality front, gross NPA increased by 8% QoQ in absolute term whereas

fresh slippage was high at Rs.2100 cr versus Rs.1520 cr in previous quarter. In

percentage term, GNPA stood at 2.8% versus 2.7% in previous quarter whereas

fresh slippage in annualised basis increased by 76 bps sequentially to 2.9%. During

quarter, bank’s increased provisions by 19% QoQ thereby net NPA increased by 6%

in absolute term. In percentage term net NPA stood at 2.4% versus 2.3% in previous

quarter.PCR slightly improved from 13.6% to 14.9% (without technical write off)

much lower than peers. However bank reported PCR at 57.4% in 3QFY14.

Operating cost increased by 12.9% YoY was due to higher cost registered in other

operating expenses which were came because of 47 new branches and 245 ATMs

added on yearly basis. Employee cost was flat on YoY basis while other operating

expenses increased by 26.3% YoY. Cost to income ratio 180 bps improved on YoY

basis to 48.3%. With moderate NII growth and higher operating expenses led

operating profit growth of 4.9% YoY.

Deteriorating asset quality with higher slippage

BSE Code 532483

NSE Symbol

During quarter bank’s NII grew by 12% YoY to Rs.2227 cr despite of 32% loan

growth and 26% deposits growth. Moderate growth in NII was due to margin

compression in YoY basis which was lead by lower base rate among peers. On NII

level, bank’s interest earnings asset grew by 18% YoY while interest bearing

liabilities grew by 20% due to higher share of wholesale deposits which somehow

increased cost. Other income was flat from last quarter and was stood at Rs.851 cr

versus Rs.846 cr. Consequently from lower support of other income, revenue grew

by 8.6% YoY to Rs.3078 cr.

Higher opex and moderate NII growth led muted operating profit growth

9427Mkt Capital (Rs Cr)

459/19052wk Range H/L

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

"NEUTRAL"14h Feb2014

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 20: Stock Advisory for Today: Buy Stock of eClerx Services with Target Price Rs 1410

20

CANARA BANK

Bank’s loan grew by 32% YoY led by retail sector growth of 55% YOY followed by SME

(46% YoY), Infrastructure (24% YoY). Within infrastructure loan growth, power generation

and transmission growth was strong at 63% YoY. Deposits grew by 1% YoY and 4% QoQ

in which current and saving account deposits grew by 19% and 16% YoY respectively. In

deposits profile, term deposits de-grew by 3% YoY which was took flat growth in overall

deposits as share of term deposits reduce to 77% from 80% in last quarter. CASA ratio

was declined by 123 bps QoQ to 23%. Credit deposits ratio for the quarter stood at

70.4% versus 71.8% in previous quarter and 67.4% in last quarter.

Margin compression on account of higher cost of fund

NIM compressed by 15 bps YoY to 2.21 largely due to lower loan yield 70 bps YoY

whereas cost of fund increased by 120 bps YoY. Higher cost of fund was due to higher

cost of bulk deposits. However declining share of bulk deposits and increasing CASA

ratio restricted to escalate funding cost. Yield on loan declined by 70 bps YoY despite of

healthy loan growth was due to lower base rate among peers.

Healthy loan growth led by retail sector

Valuation & View

Canara bank’s performance was muted all through despite of healthy loan growth.

Canara bank was unable to translate its balance sheet growth in profit & loos account

due to lower base rate among peers. Bank’s asset quality was deteriorating sequentially

along with higher fresh slippage. PCR was lowest among peers (without technical write

off). We are disappointed with growth parameters of the bank. We have neutral view on

the stock.

Valuation Band

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 21: Stock Advisory for Today: Buy Stock of eClerx Services with Target Price Rs 1410

21

Moderate growth in NII was due to margin

compression

Higher opex and moderate NII growth led

muted operating profit growth

Profitability declined due to moderate NII

growth, higher provisions and higher tax rate

CANARA BANK

Chart Focus

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 22: Stock Advisory for Today: Buy Stock of eClerx Services with Target Price Rs 1410

22

CANARA BANK

Quarterly Performance

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Quarterly Result 3QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY13 % YoY % QoQ 3QFY14E % Variation

Interest/discount on advances / bills 7360 6964 5958 23.5 5.7 7298 0.9

Income on investments 2575 2597 2460 4.7 -0.9 2701 -4.7

Interest on balances with Reserve Bank of India 149 93 127 17.1 60.3 216 -30.8

Others 0 0 0 - -13.5 0 -

Total Interest Income 10084 9654 8544 18.0 4.4 10214 -1.3

Others Income 851 773 846 0.7 10.1 1006 -15.3

Total Income 10935 10427 9390 16.5 4.9 11220 -2.5

Interest on deposits 7311 6923 6307 15.9 5.6 0

Interest Expended 7857 7463 6556 19.8 5.3 7608 3.3

NII 2227 2191 1988 12.0 1.6 2606 -14.5

Other Income 851 773 846 0.7 10.1 1006 -15.3

Total Income 3078 2964 2834 8.6 3.9 3612 -14.8

Employee 873 933 831 5.1 -6.3 1127 -22.5

Other Expenses 614 607 486 26.3 1.2 751 -18.3

Operating Expenses 1488 1539 1317 12.9 -3.4 1878 -20.8

PPP( Rs Cr) 1591 1425 1516 4.9 11.6 1734 -8.2

Provisions 1052 674 626 68.0 56.0 700 50.3

PBT 539 751 891 -39.4 -28.2 1034 -47.8

Tax 130 125 180 -27.8 4.0 258 -49.7

Net Profit 409 626 711 -42.4 -34.6 775 -47.2

Balance Sheet

Deposits 408924 391613 323963 26.2 4.4 400424 2.1

CASA(%) 23.1 24.3 20.0 0.0

Loan 287700 281104 218242 31.8 2.3 291913 -1.4

Investments 130359 119481 118835 9.7 9.1 127099 2.6

Asset Quality

GNPA 8,074 7,475 6,090 32.6 8.0

NPA 6870 6459 5134 33.8 6.4

% GNPA 2.8 2.7 2.8

% NPA 2.4 2.3

PCR(%) (w/o technical write-off) 14.9 13.6

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23

CANARA BANK

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Income Statement 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015EInterest Income 18752 23064 30851 34078 39193 47413

Interest Expense 13071 15241 23161 26199 30682 35244

NII 5681 7823 7689 7879 8511 12169

Change (%) #DIV/0! 37.7 -1.7 2.5 8.0 43.0

Non Interest Income 2858 2703 2928 3153 3817 3817

Total Income 8538 10526 10617 11032 12328 15986

Change (%) #DIV/0! 23.3 0.9 3.9 11.8 29.7

Operating Expenses 3478 4419 4674 5142 5947 7194

Pre Provision Profits 5061 6107 5943 5890 6381 8792

Change (%) #DIV/0! 20.7 -2.7 -0.9 8.3 37.8

Provisions 2039 2081 1860 2218 3347 3565

PBT 3021 4026 4083 3672 3034 5228

PAT 3021 4026 3283 2872 2399 3869

Change (%) 45.8 33.2 -18.5 -12.5 -16.5 61.3

Balance SheetDeposits( Rs Cr) 234651 293973 327054 355856 409234 470620

Change (%) #DIV/0! 25 11 9 15 15

of which CASA Dep 68261 83117 79611 86061 102878 118310

Change (%) #DIV/0! 22 -4 8 20 15

Borrowings( Rs Cr) 8441 14262 15525 20283 24439 28105

Investments( Rs Cr) 69677 83700 102057 121133 133305 168631

Loans( Rs Cr) 169335 212467 232490 242177 293034 339919

Change (%) #DIV/0! 25 9 4 21 16

RatioAvg. Yield on loans 8.2 8.0 10.1 10.1 9.6 10.0

Avg. Yield on Investments 6.6 6.9 6.9 7.5 7.7 7.5

Avg. Cost of Deposit 5.2 4.8 6.7 7.1 7.0 6.9

Avg. Cost of Borrowimgs 9.3 7.0 7.7 4.7 7.0 7.0

ValuationBook Value 358 452 512 562 639 710

CMP 410 627 474 393 214 214

P/BV 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.3

Page 24: Stock Advisory for Today: Buy Stock of eClerx Services with Target Price Rs 1410

Narnolia Securities Ltd402, 4th floor 7/ 1, Lords Sinha Road Kolkata 700071, Ph

033-32011233 Toll Free no : 1-800-345-4000

email: [email protected],

website : www.narnolia.com

Risk Disclosure & Disclaimer: This report/message is for the personal information of

the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation

advice to you. Narnolia Securities Ltd. (Hereinafter referred as NSL) is not soliciting any

action based upon it. This report/message is not for public distribution and has been

furnished to you solely for your information and should not be reproduced or

redistributed to any other person in any from. The report/message is based upon publicly

available information, findings of our research wing “East wind” & information that we

consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and we do not

provide any express or implied warranty of any kind, and also these are subject to change

without notice. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations,

should use their own judgment for taking any investment decisions keeping in mind that

past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance & that the the value of

any investment or income are subject to market and other risks. Further it will be safe to

assume that NSL and /or its Group or associate Companies, their Directors, affiliates

and/or employees may have interests/ positions, financial or otherwise, individually or

otherwise in the recommended/mentioned securities/mutual funds/ model funds and

other investment products which may be added or disposed including & other mentioned

in this report/message.