stipend program for khyber pakhtunkhwa pakistan

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Educational Research for Policy andPractice ISSN 1570-2081 Educ Res Policy PracDOI 10.1007/s10671-013-9154-4

An analysis of the social impact of thestipend program for secondary school girlsof Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Vaqar Ahmed & Muhammad Zeshan

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Educ Res Policy PracDOI 10.1007/s10671-013-9154-4

ORIGINAL ARTICLE

An analysis of the social impact of the stipend programfor secondary school girls of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Vaqar Ahmed · Muhammad Zeshan

Received: 18 April 2013 / Accepted: 6 August 2013© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Abstract The present study carries out an impact analysis of a conditional cash transfer(CCT) program for secondary-school girls in seven districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provincein Pakistan, including Battagram, Bonair, Hangu, Kohistan, Shangla, Tank, and Upper Dir.In 2012 we collected household-level primary data and used a probit model for quantitativeanalysis. Further, we conducted various focus group discussions and key informant interviewsin the target areas. Results show that the chances of female schooling decrease with a risein family size. The chances of female education increase by 1.8 and by 3.3 % if householdheads and their spouses have one additional year of schooling, respectively. Better educationalservices and rises in family income increase the chances of female ecucation by 11 and 0.3 %,respectively. Finally, socioeconomic awareness, improved economic conditions, and CCTsincrease the chances of female education by 5.2, 4.7, and 0.03 %, respectively. Overall, thestipend program (CCTs) shows a pareto improvement. Our results indicate that 35 % ofgirls will drop out in the absence of a stipend program. The present study recommends thatto increase program effectiveness, local-level monitoring and program evaluation may beimproved, delays in stipend payments to female students should be reduced, a grievanceredressal mechanism for parents and guardians should be introduced, and clear synergiesshould be developed with other transfer programs.

Keywords Education · Poverty · Conditional cash transfers · Gender

JEL Classification P36 · J16 · J18

1 Introduction

The propoor impacts of education have been widely discussed in the literature (Johnson 2013;Ladd 2012). The channels and time period in which education impacts poverty have also been

V. Ahmed · M. Zeshan (B)Sustainable Development Policy Institute, Islamabad, Pakistane-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]

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discussed. Thorpe et al. (2013) claims that female education has a greater impact on theirwell-being but in a longer time frame. The short-run rigidities in the labor market (particularlyin developing countries) do not favor females, making it difficult to overcome poverty in theshort run. This claim is supported by Roche (2013), who finds that educated women reap con-siderably lower economic rewards for their services. This heterogeneity in returns to educationcreates difficulties for women to rise out of poverty in the short run. However, United NationsEducational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) believes that education can leadto a reduction in poverty and promote growth in developing countries by gradually reduc-ing anomalies in the labor markets (UNESCO 2012a). Education provides opportunities todeprived marginalized classes and makes them active players in the economic growth process.

At the Rio 20 conference held in Brazil in 2012, the United Nations declared that theeducation gap was the key difference between the developed and developing worlds.1 Inresponse to the findings of this conference, many developing countries are now set to redesigntheir national and subnational education policies to address the various forms of poverty andinequality that represent the main hurdles to sustained growth. The key idea here is to useeducation as an active tool for job-oriented growth and welfare improvements.

The Fourth World Conference on Women, held in Beijing in 1995, recognized that femaleliteracy is a key determinant of empowerment for women.2 It enables them to participate inhousehold decision-making processes and makes them active members of household affairs.In this era of rapid development, depriving females of equal opportunities will result in anunsustainable development milieu (see also World Bank 2012).

Several past governments in Pakistan prioritized education; however, the sector faces enor-mous difficulties in implementing policy and practice corrections. Following passage of the18th constitutional amendment, the education policy is now a provincial subject. Provincialgovernments are now working rigorously toward province-specific education policies. Thesetup of society and the prevalant social capital are also important ingredients in the successof any policy. As Pakistani culture is dominated by a patriarchal social structure, a vast bodyof literature recommends advocacy and outreach programs aimed at promoting literacy.

The conservative culture that maintains a status quo in gender roles is also an obstacle inthe way of achieving the Millenium Development Goals (MDGs), especially in remote areasof Pakistan where females have little participation in decision making regarding their or theirchildren’s education. Women are supposed to get permission from the household head, who isnormally male, before seeking out educational, travel, employment, or business opportunities.Most families traditionally tend to make relatively less investment in the education of girlscompared to boys. Figure 1 exhibits the trend over time in female education in Pakistan.Progress is far from satisfactory, particularly in the case of secondary education.

It is also important to see the trend in the availability of female teachers in Pakistan(Fig. 2). Due to the conservative norms in parts of Pakistan, parents will only send theirfemale children to school where there are female teachers. Schools without female teachershave seen a decline in female enrollments. Growth in the availability of female teachers,particularly at the primary-school level, has been less than desired.

The government’s budgetary allocations and their disbursements over time indicates thelow priority attached to education in general. In fact, this raises doubts about the government’s

1 http://www.uncsd2012.org/about.html.2 United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women (2012), http://www.un.org/womenwatch/daw/beijing/fwcwn.html.

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http://www.un.org/

womenwatch/daw/beijing/fwcwn.html

An analysis of the social impact of the stipend program

Fig. 1 Female gross enrollments (%). Source World Development Indicators

Fig. 2 Availability of female teachers (%). Source World Development Indicators

claims regarding the seriousness of its commitment toward achieving MDGs. More recently,just 2 % of GDP was allocated for education in the fiscal year 2010–2011. This inadequateinvestment resulted in a literacy rate of only 67 % for males and 42 % for females, whereas therate is 65 % for males and 28 % for females in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (the province on whichwe will focus in this paper).3 Some studies indicate that even these low levels of allocationsare not fully disbursed by year end (Government of Pakistan 2012).

The literacy rate is low compared to global trends, which is 61 % for young femalesbetween the ages of 15 and 25 and 79 % for males in the same age group. UNESCO (2012b)explains how a committed implementation by government of its own policies could raiseliteracy rates up to 72 and 82 % for males and females, respectively, by the year 2015.However, the challenge is that about half of the female population has never visited a schooland 35 % of them live in rural areas. To overcome this situation, in 2000, governments atvarious levels in the country introduced targeted educational policies. The stipend programfor female secondary-school students was also introduced for the same purpose in KhyberPakhtunkhwa province.

1.1 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s context

The provincial government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa initiated a stipend program for femalesecondary-school students in 2007 that aimed to increase secondary-school enrollments of

3 Source: Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement 2010–2011.

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Table 1 Literacy rate for 2010–2011 (%)– population 10 years and older

Region Urban Rural Total

Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 77 50 63 67 29 48 68 33 50

Upper Dir 67 35 52 71 25 50 71 25 50

Shangla 0 0 0 58 16 37 58 16 37

Bonair 0 0 0 53 14 32 53 14 32

Hangu 77 38 56 69 15 41 71 20 44

Tank 81 44 64 54 10 33 57 14 36

Battagram 0 0 0 70 28 49 70 28 49

Kohistan 0 0 0 42 6 26 42 6 26

Source Pakistan social and living standards measurement (PSLM) Survey 2010–2011

80

14308

80

14308

80

14308

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Battagram Bonair Hangu

Kohistan Shangla Tank

Upper Dir

Girls’ EnrollmentsBoys’ Enrollments

Fig. 3 Trends in middle-level schooling 2002–2010. Source Bureau of Statistics Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

females. The target area of this stipend program comprised seven of the poorest districts,including Battagram, Bonair, Hangu, Kohistan, Shangla, Tank, and Upper Dir. A disaggre-gated analysis of these districts is provided in Table 1. It is evident that most of these districtshave literacy rates below the provincial average, except for Upper Dir and Battagram. Otherthan the low literacy rate, the gender gap is obvious, especially in rural areas.

The enrollment trend in middle-level4 schooling for boys and girls indicates that the gendergap is smaller in those districts where the overall student population is small, for example, theBattagram, Hangu, Kohistan, and Tank districts. On the other hand, the differences are largerin districts where total enrollments are high, such as in the Banair, Upper Dir, and Shangladistricts. This explains the fact that gender discrimination is relatively more pronounced inlarger districts (populationwise) compared to smaller districts (see Fig. 3 for details).

4 Class 6–8 is middle-level schooling.

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Table 2 Genderwise educational statistics of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province

School level No. ofschools

Enrollmentrate

Participationrate

Budgetaryallocation (%)

Male Female Male Female Male(%)

Female(%)

Primary (Class 1–5) 14,600 7,583 1,610,024 803,204 98 66 51

Middle (Class 6–8) 1,436 920 142,407 74,714 51 25 15

High (Class 9–10) 1,069 310 358,383 128,550 40 17 34

Source PC-1 Document, Planning & Development Department, Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 2011

More specifically, the gender disparity is low in the Tank, Hangu, and Kohistan districts.This is interesting because these three districts are close to the Afghanistan border and havesuffered due to the ongoing war on terror. These primary findings show that even if parentsare interested in educating their female children, there are lacunae in the female schoolingsystem that need to be identified. The present study aims to precisely identify these factors.This analysis is conducted with the help of quantitative and qualitative techniques discussedin the following sections.

It is important here to discuss some programmatic details about this stipend program.Primarily it aims to reduce the gender gap in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which is cur-rently 26 % in secondary-level schooling. To this end, it allocated 30 billion Pakistan rupees(PKR) under the Annual Development Program (ADP) in 2007. This program is part ofthe Mid-Term Development Framework that aims to reduce gender imbalances to allow thedevelopment process to work on a more equitable basis. In 2008, the province had a 57 %literacy rate for males and 20 % for females. The fundamental reason for this low femaleliteracy rate is low income and a conservative social context. In this province, girls are alsoexpected to work with their parents to obtain the basic necessities of life. The stipend pro-gram intends to create an incentive for parents to send their children to secondary schoolbecause many rural families follow the decades-old tradition of not sending their girls toschool beyond the primary level. Table 2 specifies some basic facts of the educational systemin Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

From Table 2 it is obvious that a substantial proportion of girls are not enrolled in secondaryschools, which in turn increases the gender gap. The budgetary allocation seems unfair forfemales despite the government’s claim that it is committed to reducing the gender gap. Theincentive of the stipend at the secondary level aims at incentivizing poor families to educatetheir girls and create a mindset change in the region. In the target districts, girls are the mainvictims of educational poverty, so this stipend program targets only poor girls. The expectedoutcome is a reduction in the number of dropouts and improvements in girls’ enrollmentsat the secondary level, especially in remote areas. In this program, stipend money of PKR200/month was given to each girl starting in 2006 (between Classes 6 and 10). After 1 year, in2007, around 0.28 million female students were registered under this program. This projectalso fulfills the objectives of the National Education policy, Education Sector Reforms, andthe Poverty Reduction Strategy of the Government.

The conditions imposed on the stipend money brings opportunity costs for households.Supporters of such conditions are of the view that a conditional cash transfer (CCT) allowsefficient resource utilization. Hence, the gains from these conditions might outweigh theorganizational costs and society might achieve a society would have a better human capital

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(Bassett 2008). In a rural setting, in making decisions about their children’s schooling, parentsare also interested in the social benefits associated with investment in education. In this case,the imposition of conditions might increase enrollments of females when parents see a streamof higher future income. To obtain the desired results, the disbursement of funds is based onsome condition, for example, a female student must attain 80 % school attendance to receivethe next installment of funds.

The present study also aims to conduct an impact analysis of the conditional cash transfersin Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to date. At the same time, we aim to identify the prospective changesrequired in this program to enhance its progress. We will examine the various transmissionchannels through which this CCT in the education sector can impact various forms of poverty.To this end, our approach analyzes the educational and noneducational factors that add to ordetract from the intended impact of the transfer program.

The rest of the study is organized as follows. In the next section we discuss the contempora-neous literature on this topic, which includes global and national studies. Section 2 elaborateson the research methodology adopted in this study. Section 3 explains the empirical results,and Sect. 4 concludes the study and provides policy recommendations.

1.2 Literature review

This section briefly looks at the relationship between female education, poverty, and welfare.Thorpe et al. (2013) has evaluated the impact of female education on the well-being of AfricanAmerican females using a logistic model. It finds that female education has a greater impacton their well-being but in the longer run. The rigidities in the labor market provide smallerincentives for females in the shorter run. This also implies that females find it difficult toovercome poverty in the short run but can avoid poverty in the long run. Similar resultsare provided by Roche (2013), who finds self-employed women receive relatively lowereconomic rewards for their services compared with self-employmed men. This difference inreturns to education makes it difficult for women to escape poverty in the short run.

Further, Johnson (2013) finds that graduate-level enrollment has a countercyclical impacton female employment but an acyclical impact on male employment. This result impliesthat during a recessionary phase, the number of women losing their jobs is higher than thenumber of males. Hence the labor markets offer a substitution effect in favor of males duringrecessions. In the following part of this section, we review the existing literature on the roleof conditional cash transfer programs and their impact on education and social well-being.We split these studies into global and national studies for ease of creating linkages with thispaper. Moreover, in the case of national-level studies, we will also look at the case of KhyberPakhtunkhwa province and the state of female education.

1.3 Global literature

Conditional cash transfers are frequently employed around the world to alleviate educationpoverty. Along with facilitating education, they also work to change the mindsets of localpopulations and mold their thinking in favor of positive externalities arising from eduction(see Faith and Vinay 2010). Certain conditions are generally attached to the availability ofCCT funds, increasing the efficiency of the programs. Skoufias and Maro (2008) exam-ine the efficiency effects of the Progresa Program in Mexico. This program is designed toincrease school enrollments among children so that they can become active participants in thefuture labor market. These educational grants are provided only to households with children

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enrolled in Grades 3–9. The study concludes that these CCTs are effective at increasing theliteracy rate and labor force participation over time in Mexico (see also Saavedra and Garcia2012).

These CCT programs are also designed to promote gender equality in the educationsector. In this regard, Schurmann (2009) has worked on a female secondary-school stipendproject in Bangladesh aiming to increase female enrollments. The program has an overarchingobjective of increasing female empowerment by generating employment opportunities forthem. Using the Social Exclusion Framework, it finds that harassment, poverty, early-agemarriages, and childbirth are responsible for preventing girls from attending school. Theresults illustrate that the CCT project was able to increase women’s empowerment in variousways via increased female secondary schooling. Furthermore, Barrera-Osorio et al. (2008)asserts that conditional cash transfers should be based on school attendance and part of themoney should be paid before admission. Students’ own attitudes should also be consideredbefore granting these scholarships.

Along with the provision of educational grants, some transfer programs are designed toinvest in the health and nutrition of students, especially female students. Barham (2009)evaluates the performance of a pilot CCT program called Red de Protección Social (RPS),which was implemented in two regions of Nicaragua. RPS was a multipronged approach topromoting the gender equality with balanced human capital. It provides cash payments tofemales for increasing their participation in education, schooling of children, health services,and nutrition. Results showed that this program had a positive impact on school enrollments.However, its impact was greatly reduced by negative economic shocks such as droughts anddwindling coffee prices.

1.4 Literature on Pakistan

The UNESCO (2012a) report proposes that developing countries should spend at least 4 %of their GDP on education. In contrast, Pakistan spends around 2 % of its GDP on education.Furthermore, a lack of schools, inadequate facilities at existing schools, and ghost schoolsin remote areas are adding to this problem.5 Under the business-as-usual scenario, Pakistanwill need 38 years to achieve universal primary education, and it will require approximately16 years to attain an 86 % literacy rate. There is evidence that education and income povertyreinforce each other. Chaudhry et al. (2010) finds that education has a direct impact on skilldevelopment, which in turn has positive effects on the overall economic growth process. Someindirect effects are also accrued such as awareness about basic rights, health issues such asclean drinking water, and sanitation. Empirical results indicate that education significantlyalleviates the incidence of absolute poverty.

In developing countries, the views of local communities on female education are veryimportant. Most decisions in such countries are based on the perceptions of society regard-ing education. Shahzad et al. (2011) analyzed the attitude of the community and parentstoward female education in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. The authors found that peoplewere unaware of the direct and indirect benefits associated with educating female children.Independent Evaluation Group (2011) produced the same results for Punjab province. Theshort-run impact evaluation shows that CCTs increase female school enrollment by 23 %.Furthermore, they have a significant impact on productivity, consumption, and intergenera-

5 The term ghost school refers to those educational institutions that have a physical infrastructure but noteachers or students. There have been instances where local influential persons use these state-owned premisesfor their own interests.

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tional human capital accumulation in the long run. In view of the aforementioned factors andgiven the gaps in the literature specific to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, the objectives ofour inquiry in this paper are given as follows.

• Review outputs and outcomes associated with the stipend (CCT) allocated to femalestudents attending secondary school in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

• Identify changes required in program design and compensatory schemes to enhanceprogress in schooling for girls.

• Evaluate the transmission channels and their capacity to reach the poor.• Evaluate the role played by the program in reducing the gender gap in education indica-

tors.• Assess the monitoring and evaluation system associated with the program.• Review the process of stipend distribution.• Identify the actions needed for better implementation of the program.

2 Methodology

This section briefly discusses the quantitative and qualitative tools that are used to assess theimpact of stipends on female education. The following chart summarizes the methodologyemployed in the present study.

Our household survey (given the time and physical constraints in this region borderingAfghanistan) was comprised of randomly selected households from three randomly selecteddistricts: Battgram, Hangu, and Shangla. In total, the sample size was 600 households. Fur-ther, 25 in-depth key informant interviews (KIIs) were also conducted in each of the specifieddistricts. We also validated our quantitative output through a qualitative method, for exam-ple, focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted in each district. The household-levelquestionnaire focused on (a) location variables, (b) employment, income and consumptionprofile of households, (c) community environment, (d) availability of and access to school,and (e) quality of school infrastructure.

This study used a limited dependent variable model for estimation purposes, also known asa probit model. It is a maximum-likelihood estimation technique widely used in the literature(Njong 2010; Geda et al. 2005; Ai and Norton 2003). In this model, female education dependson multiple factors including financial well-being, access to education, family size, householdbias in favor of male children’s education, awareness, education level of household head, and

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economic conditions of the household. The detailed results of this binary response functionare discussed in the next section.

3 Results from survey exercise

This section combines our results from household-level survey data, community-level FGDs,and KIIs with government officials and community representatives. We examine how thestipend program has impacted the enrollment levels and public awareness about femaleeducation. Most of the households believe that stipend money has a favorable impact onfemale education and that CCTs alleviate their financial constraints as well. The districtwiseimpact of the stipend program reveals that female enrollment has increased in secondaryschools in all the surveyed districts. According to the results, 93 % of families have availedthemselves of the stipend program, resulting in a 7 % increase in female enrollments over thetime period of this program. Just in Hangu and Battagram districts, female enrollment ratesincreased by 16 and 12 %, respectively. It may be mentioned here that Hangu is a hard-hitdistrict due to the ongoing war on terrorism.

After the receipt of stipend money, females devote their relatively greater time to study,which in turn results in a reduced dropout rate from secondary school. Transfer payments havean income effect and make it easier for households to increase their consumption becausethey have access to stipend money. Because the transfers are in the form of CCTs, thoughhouseholds are free to allocate the cash received (among their competing demands) as theysee fit, but with one condition – that school attendance of female children should not dropbelow 80 %. In this way, we find that the stipends reduce poverty, and results indicate thatonly 49.7 % of the stipend amount is consumed for female education expenses while the restof it is used to meet household consumption demands. In addition, 58 % of families respondedthat this stipend money was sufficient, whereas 42 % of families responded that it was notaccording to their expectations. The benefits associated with stipend money are not uniformacross all households. For families earning less than PKR 5,000/month, the stipend amountwas the basic source of education for their female children. In our sample this was the casefor 82 % of households. For relatively higher income groups, the need for stipend money isrelatively less urgent.

In the absence of stipend money, the female enrollment rate at the secondary level wasfound to be low at 65 %, implying that 35 % of female students might drop out in the absenceof this stipend. This confirms the importance of such CCTs for female education, particularlyfor the poorest regions. On the whole, the stipend program shows a pareto improvement insociety: someone is better off without making anyone worse off. The stipend program hasbrought many females to a better position with no adverse effects on society.

The data show that around 80 % of households were aware of schools, teaching staff,infrastructure, and the stipend program. About 84 % of households reported that schoolsprovided basic facilities like furniture, chairs, tables, and desks; 94 % of female schoolshad trained and qualified teaching staff. Hence the argument of scarcity of resources, lackof trained teachers, and nonavailability of educational facilities is not correct; rather, otherfactors are responsible for the low enrollment rates.

The enrollment rate of girls is 86 % in secondary schools, showing a structural changetoward female education. People are realizing the importance of education for females; sev-eral community members reported that educated female members can now contribute to thedevelopment of subsequent generations. This trend is very encouraging in the Shangla dis-trict, where 97 % of females now attend secondary school. However, uneven socioeconomic

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conditions make female education less attractive, and in the overall sample, 14 % of girls wereunable to attend secondary school because of communal constraints (i.e., related to individualor household harsh living conditions, distance to school, and lack of transportation).

The parental economic status matters greatly for female education because a sound familybackground in terms of education and earnings might facilitate children’s education as well.Results show that 32 % of dropouts were due to severe financial constraints as these familieswere barely able to meet basic household needs. The distance of schools from home andthe availability of safe public transportation are important determinants of female education.The former in particular forces parents to send their daughters to informal schools (e.g.,madrassah). Around 81 % of the girls in our sample perform household chores, whereas 10 %were working in nonfarm activities. On average, a female child could earn PKR 2,500/month,and this is part of the reason that some respondents opted to drop out of secondary school.

3.1 Results from probit model

This section reports the findings based on our probit model. Household decisions are deter-mined by various factors, including social interaction and economic and cultural aspects,so the present study examines the impact of these factors on girls’ likelihood of attendingschool. More precisely, these factors include the education level of household heads andtheir spouse, family size, awareness about the benefits of education, household economicconditions, distance of home from school, and satisfaction with services provided by theschool.

Our results reveal that all the variables in the model are statistically significant except childillness. Family size has a negative impact on female education. A large family size reduces thechances of female education by 0.7 % (Table 3). This phenomenon also explains the impactof resource constraints faced by families, which in turn results in dropout or nonenrolllment.Under such circumstances it is common to see families preferring the education of male overfemale children (Mogstad and Wiswall 2009).

Attitudes toward female education are influenced by the parents’ education level. Edu-cated parents realize the importance of education for both boys and girls. Our results confirmthat one additional year of schooling of the household head increases the chances of femaleeducation by 1.8 %. This is also the case with the educational level of the spouse of the house-hold head: one additional year of schooling of the spouse of the household head improvesthe chances of female education by 3.3 %. Chevalier and Lanot (2002) argue that the impactof financial constraints on female education is less important than parental educational level.

The distance of the school from the home is an important determinant of female education;the chances that a female will receive an education decrease if the school is located far fromhome. Our results indicate a negative and significant impact of an increase in distance ofthe school from home. The chances of female education decrease by 2.8 % if there is a 1 %increase in the school distance. Furthermore, the quality of education plays a role. Satisfactoryeducational services have a significant impact on female education. The likelihood of femaleeducation increases by 11 % if the family is satisfied with the educational services providedby the school.

Family income is an important determinant of female education in the selected districtsbecause the average family located at a distant place faces severe resource constraints. How-ever, smaller families with higher incomes can invest more in education, but they are fewin number. A 1 % rise in household income increases the chances of female education by0.3 %. This result is consistent with the findings of Hobcraft and Kiernan (2001). The lackof resources causes poor families to pull their girls out of school and put them in an informal

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Table 3 Probit model forfemales attending school

The probit model uses zero andone as its fundamental units.Therefore, correlations may notbe very accurate. This is alimitation of this research studyStandard errors are reported inparentheses. ***, **, and *indicate 1, 5, and 10 % levels ofsignificance, respectively. HHHousehold

Dependent variable: female attending school = 1, 0 otherwise.

Variables Probit model Marginal fixed effects

Illness at home −0.11 −0.046

(0.128) (0.051)

Household size −0.02** −0.007**

(0.006) (0.002)

Spouse education 0.08*** 0.033***

(0.023) (0.009)

HH education 0.05*** 0.018***

(0.005) (0.002)

HH income 0.008* .003*

(0.003) (0.0015)

Radio (awareness) 0.13* 0.052*

(0.057) (0.023)

Economic conditions of HH 0.12*** 0.047***

(0.027) (0.010)

Local economic conditions 0.03 0.011

(0.024) (0.009)

Distance from high school −0.07*** −0.028***

(0.020) (0.008)

Satisfaction with school 0.28*** 0.110***

(0.072) (0.028)

Conditional cash transfers 0.07*** 0.0003***

(0.002) (0.000)

District level controls

Shangla −0.33*** −0.131***

(0.087) (0.033)

Bonair −0.10 −0.038

(0.082) (0.033)

Hangu −0.37** −0.14**

(0.085) (0.033)

Tank −0.28*** −0.11***

(0.094) (0.036)

Kohistan −0.72*** −0.27***

(0.115) (0.038)

Battagram 0.19*** 0.074***

(0.081) (0.032)

Constant −0.81*** –

(0.213) –

Observations 3,123 –

LR Chi2 394.43

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labor situation so that they can earn money to feed the family. The relationship between theattainment of education and income has become more important in the context of increasingincome inequalities.

Household awareness about the importance of education plays a crucial role in girls’education. If the family head recognizes the short- and long-term benefits associated witheducation, then the family will be more interested in the education of girls. The present studyemploys radio use at home as a proxy of awareness. Results explain that socioeconomicawareness increases the chances of female education by 5.2 %. Economic conditions of thehousehold and of the local area are both essential determinants of female education. Resultsindicate that improved economic conditions of a household and local area increase the chancesof female education by 4.7 and 1.1 %, respectively, consistent with Chevalier (2004).

The provincial government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province is working under theassumption that CCTs would increase the transitional income of households. In this way, thegovernment might improve the efficiency of female education in the province. Our resultsindicate that this stipend money improves the chances of female education by 0.03 %, whichis very low. This result is consistent with actual government data on treatment and controlgroups (given in the next section), which assert that the impact of CCTs falls after 2 years.Hence, along with the provision of CCTs the government should eliminate other bottle-necks that represent the main hurdles preventing female education in Khyber Pakhtunkhwaprovince.

3.2 Results from secondary data

This section evaluates the impact of stipend money on the treatment group as comparedto the control group. The treatment group comprises the cluster of districts where CCTsare distributed in households, whereas the control group comprises the nonprogram areas.The treatment group includes the Battagram, Bonair, Hangu, Kohistan, Shangla, Tank, andUpper Dir districts, whereas the control group includes the Chitral, DI Khan, Karak, Kohat,Lakki, Lower Dir, and Malakand districts. This analysis covers the period 2006–2010. Ourexamination reveals that from 2006 to 2008, school enrollments in the treatment groupincreased more rapidly compared to the control group (Fig. 4). However, the relative growthin enrollments did not remain constant for the next 2 years, implying that the impact of CCTs

Fig. 4 Enrollment in treatment and control groups (percentage change)

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starts decreasing after just 2 years. This result indicates some obstacles (other than education-related expenses) that discouraged female enrollments in the target districts after 2008.

4 Conclusion

In 2006, the government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in Pakistan initiated a CCT inthe form of a stipend program for female secondary-school students that aimed to increasesecondary-school enrollments among girls. In this program, stipend money in the amountof PKR 200/month was given to each girl starting in 2006. After 1 year, in 2007, around0.28 million female students were registered under this program. This project shows thecommitment of the provincial government to attaining MDGs. The target area of this stipendprogram comprised seven backward districts, including Battagram, Bonair, Hangu, Kohistan,Shangla, Tank, and Upper Dir. Preliminary analysis indicated that all these districts werebelow the average provincial literacy rate except Upper Dir and Battagram. Other than thelow literacy rate, the gender gap is very obvious in these districts.

Our household-level survey exercise reveals that the stipend program has a significantimpact on female education because it eases household financial constraints. It has increasedfemale enrollment in secondary schools, and around 93 % of families have availed themselvesof the stipend program, resulting in a 7 % increase in female enrollments. Survey resultsreveal that 35 % of girls might drop out in the absence of stipend money. Around 80 % of thehouseholds were aware of schools, teaching staff, infrastructure, and the stipend program.Approximately 84 % of households reported that the schools provided basic facilities likefurniture, chairs, tables, and desks; 94 % of female schools had trained and qualified teachingstaff.

The female secondary-school enrollment rate is 86 %, showing a structural change towardfemale education. However, uneven socioeconomic conditions make female education lessattractive, and 14 % of girls were unable to attend secondary school because of constraintsrelated to harsh living conductions, distance from school, and lack of safe transportation.Results showed that 32 % of the dropouts left school due to severe financial constraints;they were barely able to meet basic household needs. Females in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa alsowork in household and nonfarm activities, and 81 % of girls performed household chores,whereas 10 % worked in nonfarm activities (making the decision for education difficult fortheir households).

The results of the probit model reveal that family size has a negative impact on femaleeducation. A marginal increase in family size decreases the chances of female education by0.7 %. One additional year of education of the head of household has a positive and significantimpact on female education, raising the chances of female education by 1.8 %. This is also thecase with the educational level of household head’s spouse, one additional year of schoolingfor whom improves the chances of female education by 3.3 %.

The chances of female education decrease by 2.8 % with a 1 % increase in distance fromschool. The likelihood of a female attending school increases by 11 % if her family is satisfiedwith the educational services provided by the school. A 1 % rise in family income increases thechances of female education by 0.3 %. The results also show that if the family is aware of thesocioeconomic benefits of education, then the chances of female education increase by 5.2 %.The economic conditions of the household and of the local area are essential determinantsof female education. Results indicate that improved economic conditions in both householdsand the local area increase the chances of female education by 4.7 and 1.1 % respectively.Finally, stipend money through CCTs improves the chances of female education by 0.03 %.

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This low level of gain associated with stipend disbursement indicates that provision of CCTsmust be supplemented by other reforms that would improve community awareness abouteducation, reduce the distance from school, provide safe public transportation to children,and address lacking facilities at female schools.

4.1 Policy recommendations

Over the course of this study, we also conducted in-depth interviews with education depart-ment officials. Therefore, a few of our recommendations focus on process and institutionalmechanisms that can further strengthen the efficiency of this program. What follow are themain policy recommendations of our study.

• For families earning less than PKR 5,000/month, the stipend amount is the basic sourceof motivation for educating their children. Ensuring a smooth and timely flow of fundscan facilitate female education in these households. In the past there have been delaysin the receipt of promised stipends, which discouraged parents and in some cases ledto discontinuing a child’s education. Such lapses in the government’s own organizationneed to be addressed.

• Cultural constraints make female education difficult in places, and therefore regularawareness campaigns are recommended to reduce the impact of such taboos. Engagementwith communities can take the form of local language literature focusing on the benefitsof female education, street theaters, and the strengthening of parent–teacher associations.

• The distance of schools from home is a major impediment to female education; parentsprefer to send their daughters to informal schools (e.g., madrassah in mosques) in caseswhere formal schools are far away. Accessibility to school should be made easy throughthe provision of safe public transportation or by constructing new schools in far-flungregions. The latter is only possible if there are teachers willing to serve in the distantareas.

• Many females are involved in household chores and other nonfarm activities, whichreduces female enrollments in schools. Mandatory female education enforced by lawcan increase female enrollments in secondary schools.

• The impact of financial constraints on female education is less important than parentaleducation. Female enrollments can be increased by educating their parents. The afore-mentioned awareness programs can be customized for parental knowledge.

• The stipend money only slightly improves the chances of female education becauseof the many operational bottlenecks. The impact of stipend money can be increased ifgovernment would consider and address the following impediments:

(a) Secondary education budget formulation is based upon arbitrary assumptions; a morescientific approach by the Department of Education of the government of KhyberPakhtunkhwa would bring greater efficiency to the system.

(b) An interdepartmental committee is needed to address coordination issues (resultingin delayed processing of stipends), including representatives from the finance depart-ment, planning and development department, education department, Pakistan postoffice, accounting general office, and Executive District Officers in the governmentof Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

(c) A transparent procedure for the monitoring and evaluation of the stipend program isrequired. The government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province is responsible for layingdown clear monitoring and evaluation mechanisms for the development budget inthe province in accordance with the 18th constitutional amendment in Pakistan.

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Acknowledgments The authors are economists at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute. We wouldlike to acknowledge the financial support of UNDP and the government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Pakistanand the technical advice of two internal referees.

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