[email protected] cities21 non-profit consultancy: next generation smart growth and...
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Cities21• Non-profit consultancy: next generation smart
growth and transportation for sustainability
• Edge cities & office parks: Palo Alto, Microsoft Campus (Redmond, WA), Emeryville in 2001, MN burbs, etc
• BART Group Rapid Transit Study (Cybertran)
• EPA Hacienda “Transforming Office Parks into Transit Villages” – Pleasanton, BART, MTC, Bay Area Council, Oracle, ACCMA, CCLR, East Bay Community Foundation, etc.
Futuristic, Utopian Emeryville Vision• Emery Go Round on steroids: Same stops,
faster than a car, 2500 trips/day => 23K• More effective BART, carpool, AC bus,
Amtrak, bike• Less than 50% of trips by car• Lower cost of living, higher quality of life,
increased real-estate values, increased in-fill, increased employee retention, better jobs access, increased public transit revenue, sustainable (Kyoto+), attract new businesses (biotech), better Pixar expansion
• Improved Xmas shopping traffic.
PRT – Rapid Emery Go Round• Personal Rapid Transit• Feeder / Distributor / Circulator
– Similar to a monorail. Video
• High service level, no waiting, faster than a car. – Non-stop, 30 MPH– Bypasses intermediate stations– Ride alone or with 1-2 people you choose– Convenient stops by buildings (not on street)– Comfortable, quiet, safe, no exhaust– 24x7
• First new transp. mode in 90 yrs.
Promising Palo Alto Results • (62 surveys)
• Promising, but not definitive
• Solo commutes: 89% 45% – Carpool: 9% 32%, train: 0% 15.5% train– For 20K people, removes 6,600 autos (roughly)
• @ 350 s.f. per space 50 acres $326M hsng profit
• 1.32 PRT trips/day/person => 26K trips/day– PRT: profitable (capital, O&M)
• Huge transit village land value increase
• Apply to 6M workers in major emp. centers– 1.98M cars, 12B VMT, 424M gals, 8.4B lbs CO2 .
PRT status• Development efforts:
– Taxi 2000 SkyWeb Express, MN (60’ track, 1 vehicle)
– ULTra, Cardiff, Wales (1km track, 2 vehicles)– Well funded, but secret, Korean effort– Texas MicroRail: (short track, 1 vehicle)
• Heathrow procurement
• Dubai procurement (no EIR!)• First system: 2008?
Comprehensive, Integrated MobilityDoor to Door
Centralized Cars:share, rent, ride home
Delivery services, Personal activities, Business services
first mile Train
first mile Bus
Walk
Bike, scooter, Segway
Smart jitney, hitchhike
•Web/wireless coordination•Supportive policy context•Scale!
Short carpool pick up
first mileLong carpool
•Improved match-making•Shared parking, nuride
PRT shuttle system LAST MILE mid-day trips
Potential First Mover Strategy• Ballot measure in favor of PRT: political mandate
(hard to innovate in mature democracy with entrenched interests)• => federal earmark for $20M test track
• Jobs! National leadership!• First system
• Intl transit tourism• Lead a new industry!
• No risk franchise strategy• Like electric trolley in 1888
• Second mover strategy• PRT scenario in genl plan.
Q&A• "Our current transportation policy path in the U. S. is clearly
unsustainable. Traffic, its environmental impacts and its impact on quality of life continue to get worse virtually everywhere in the country. Innovative new ideas and new approaches are badly needed. We need a portfolio of innovative approaches spread across the United States, with each one pushing the envelope towards a more sustainable future transportation system. Cities21 and its Suburban Silver Bullet should be in this portfolio. It is innovative; it is forward-looking; it addresses many key transportation challenges; and the potential benefits - if widely disseminated - are large." - Steve Offutt, EPA's Best Workplaces for Commuters.
• "I've long thought personal rapid transit would be a silver bullet for Edge City transportation woes if you could keep it as simple, customizable, scalable, affordable, and profitable as Legos. Cities21 may have cracked the code." - Joel Garreau, Edge City: Life on the New Frontier..
PRT Visual Impact• Important issue
– Modern offices & parking lots are more inviting to PRT than historic downtowns
• Visual vocabulary– Freeway overpasses versus roller coasters– Visarc.com– Chalmers U. study: blend in w/ historic downtown
• Portable full scale model– Walk underneath it. Human visual perception sys.
• 3D Virtual Reality animation/simulation• Survey: How will ULTra look in cities?
– 80% say good or excellent.
Literature + Interviews + Surveys• Large solo driving reduction is hard • Last mile problem is very important
– Mid-day trips: 2X value of time– Workers are unhappy with bus shuttles
• Each commuter: basket of objections– PRT last mile is important, but not sufficient
• 30% time penalty: OK• Carpool psychology is complex:
– Matchmaking: anonymous, superficial rejection (web dating)– Sleep, uncertainty stress, and safety are important
• Short train or carpool with PRT: OK• Customer support: eliminate nightmares• Stranding: want “no penalty” emergency ride home• Good commute: “time went fast.”