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South Australian Centre for Economic StudiesJune 2016 Economic Briefing Report
28 June, 2016
Steve Whetton, Executive Director, SA Centre for Economic Studies
Global GDP Growth
World Bank dataSA Centre for Economic Studies, University of Adelaide
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Year
Pe
r ce
nt
Developing Countries
High Income Countries
World Economy
Annual Growth in Real GDP, Real GDI and Real DFD
ABS dataSA Centre for Economic Studies, University of Adelaide
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Mar06 Mar07 Mar08 Mar09 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16
Pe
r c
en
t
Quarter ended
Real DFD
Real GDP
Real GDI
Growth in Key Components of Australian GDP
ABS data
Mar 2015 to Mar 2016
Annual
Percentage
Change
Contribution to
GDP Growth
Final Consumption Expenditure 3.1 2.3
General Government 3.2 0.6
Households 3.1 1.7
Gross Fixed Capital Formation -5.9 -1.5
Private -6.8 -1.4
Dwelling 8.3 0.4
Business Investment -12.6 -1.9
Public -1.4 -0.1
Domestic Final Demand 0.8 0.8
Exports of Goods and Services 7.6 1.7
Imports of Goods and Services -1.0 0.2
Gross Domestic Product 3.2 3.2
Real Gross Domestic Income 0.6 n.a.
SA Centre for Economic Studies, University of Adelaide
Annual Growth in Australian Export Volumes – Seas. Adj.
ABS dataSA Centre for Economic Studies, University of Adelaide
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Mar05 Mar06 Mar07 Mar08 Mar09 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16
Pe
r c
en
t
Quarter ended
ServicesGoods
Annual Growth in Australian Export Values – Seas. Adj.
ABS dataSA Centre for Economic Studies, University of Adelaide
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Mar05 Mar06 Mar07 Mar08 Mar09 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16
Pe
r C
en
t
Quarter ended
Services
Goods
International Commodity Prices
RBA dataSA Centre for Economic Studies, University of Adelaide
0
50
100
150
200
250
May06 May07 May08 May09 May10 May11 May12 May13 May14 May15 May16
Month
Ind
ex
Base Metals
Rural
Non-Rural(a)
Bulk commodities(b)
Terms of Trade
ABS dataSA Centre for Economic Studies, University of Adelaide
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Mar96 Mar98 Mar00 Mar02 Mar04 Mar06 Mar08 Mar10 Mar12 Mar14 Mar16
Month
Ind
ex
Australian Private New Capital Expenditure by Industry
ABS dataSA Centre for Economic Studies, University of Adelaide
0
5
10
15
20
25
Mar06 Mar07 Mar08 Mar09 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16
$ b
illi
on
Quarter
Other Selected Industries
Manufacturing
Mining
Actual and Expected Private New Capital Expenditure, Australia
ABS dataSA Centre for Economic Studies, University of Adelaide
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Mining Manufacturing Other selectedindustries
Total
$ b
illio
n
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
Established House Prices
ABS dataSA Centre for Economic Studies, University of Adelaide
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
Mar06 Mar07 Mar08 Mar09 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16
Brisbane
Adelaide
Ind
ex
Quarter
Melbourne
Sydney
Perth
Australian Employment Growth
ABS dataSA Centre for Economic Studies, University of Adelaide
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
May06 May07 May08 May09 May10 May11 May12 May13 May14 May15 May16
Full-time Growth
Total Employment
Month Ended
Pe
r c
en
t
Pe
r c
en
t
Employment to Population Ratio (RHS)
South Australian Employment Levels
ABS dataSA Centre for Economic Studies, University of Adelaide
770
780
790
800
810
820
830
May11 May12 May13 May14 May15 May16
Month
'000 P
ers
on
s
Seasonally Adjusted
Trend
South Australian Employment Growth
ABS dataSA Centre for Economic Studies, University of Adelaide
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
May06 May07 May08 May09 May10 May11 May12 May13 May14 May15 May16
Full-time employment
Total employment
Year Ended (Month)
Pe
r ce
nt
Expenditure on South Australia’s State Final Demand
ABS data
Mar 2015 to Mar 2016
Annual Percentage
Change
Contribution to
GSP Growth
Final Consumption Expenditure
General Government 3.7 0.7
Households 2.6 1.5
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Private -8.0 -1.5
Dwellings -2.8 -0.1
Business Investment -10.5 -1.3
Public 5.1 0.2
State Final Demand 1.0 1.0
Private Sector Business Investment
ABS dataSA Centre for Economic Studies, University of Adelaide
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mar06 Mar07 Mar08 Mar09 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16
So
uth
Au
stra
lia
, $ b
illi
on
Au
stra
lia
, $ b
illi
on
Quarter
Australia
South Australia
ABS dataSA Centre for Economic Studies, University of Adelaide
Value of South Australian Building Approvals
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Apr06 Apr07 Apr08 Apr09 Apr10 Apr11 Apr12 Apr13 Apr14 Apr15 Apr16
Month
Total Building
New Residential Building
Residential Alterations/Additions Non-Residential Building
$ b
illio
n
Annual Growth Real Goods & Services Exports, SA
ABS dataSA Centre for Economic Studies, University of Adelaide
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Sep12 Mar13 Sep13 Mar14 Sep14 Mar15 Sep15 Mar16
Pe
r c
en
t
Quarter ended
Services
Goods
Growth in Selected Real Domestic Demand Components
ABS dataSA Centre for Economic Studies, University of Adelaide
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Mar06 Mar07 Mar08 Mar09 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16
Year Ended (Quarter)
Pe
r ce
nt
Private Business Investment
Household ConsumptionExpenditure
Total Private Dwellings Investment
Preliminary Real Construction Work Done, South Australia
ABS dataSA Centre for Economic Studies, University of Adelaide
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Mar06 Mar07 Mar08 Mar09 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16
Quarter
Total Construction
Engineering Construction
Residential Building
Non-Residential Building
$ b
illi
on
Australian Household Saving Ratio
ABS dataSA Centre for Economic Studies, University of Adelaide
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Mar96 Mar98 Mar00 Mar02 Mar04 Mar06 Mar08 Mar10 Mar12 Mar14 Mar16
Quarter
Ra
tio
Index of Employment Levels
ABS dataSA Centre for Economic Studies, University of Adelaide
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
May06 May07 May08 May09 May10 May11 May12 May13 May14 May15 May16
Ind
ex
Month
WA
VIC
QLD
NSW
SA
TAS
South Australian Centre for Economic StudiesJune 2016 Economic Briefing Report
28 June, 2016
Steve Whetton, Executive Director, SA Centre for Economic Studies