steve argent - low carbon vehicles - 01.03.10

8/7/2019 Steve Argent - Low Carbon Vehicles - 01.03.10

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Investing for low/zero carbon electricity& potential attraction of electric vehicles from a grid perspective

2pm Monday

1st March 2010

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y eve rgen o rup nergy


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Outline

Introduction and Arup

The Challenge Aim for zero carbon electricity + Energy Gap = Major investment need

Price volatility - Need for future storage and demand side management

Government aspirations and policy ~~~> delivery?

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Are the current policies and market fit for purpose? Answer is NO Ofgem recommends a range of changes.

Potential grid benefits of smart electric vehicle charging

Context UK electricity grid + vehicles + Peak Oil

Arup/Cenex Report on electric vehicles

Technologies

Potential impacts on UK Grid System

Need for smart charging and dynamic pricing


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Steve Argent Senior ConsultantBSc(Hons), CEng, FIET, MIAM, Eur-Ing

Over 35 years experience within the energy industry

including project development, due diligence, environmental

assessment and consents, energy regulation and strategy, security ofsupply and emergency planning.

Joined Arup in April 2008

Recent work for clients has included carbon capture and storage, grid

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connec on app ca ons or new nuc ear eve opmen s, ec n ca uediligence of a power station and transmission network in Europe, plusadvising Government on grid aspects of electric vehicles.

Previously 6 years as Technical Adviser for British Energy Regulator, Ofgem.

In the 90s, responsible for managing environmental assessments and negotiating

planning consents for multi-million pound energy projects. Involved in consultancy, project development and power plant

acquisitions in Australasia, Middle East and Europe, becomingPowergen International's engineering development manager

Early career in power stations, grid control, operations and planning.

[email protected]


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Arupthe creative force behind many of the world's most innovative projects

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Including 20 offices in UK and Ireland

Americas Europe East Asia Australasia

founded in 1946

employee owned

~10,000 staff~ 700M turnover


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Broad range of expertise

- including ENERGY and TRANSPORT

Environmental

Assessment &

Management

Performance

enhancement

Major

ProjectsRisk

Management

Transaction

Advice

Procurement

Strategy

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Planning Policy

And ConsentsAsset

Management

Security

Consulting

ContaminatedLand Remediation

Development andRegenerationTransport& Logistics


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Plus related/supporting Specialist Technical Services

Geotechnics

Geology

Fire

EngineeringStructural

Engineering

Civil

Engineering

Marine

EngineeringRoad/Rail

Engineering

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Seismic

Engineering

Oil & GasInnovation &

TechnologyTunnelling

Mechanical

and ElectricalIT &

Communications


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(+ Foster + Partners, Scottish and Southern Energy, Solar Century, Stagecoach Group and Virgin Group. )

Arup also a member of ITPOES - the UKIndustry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security

7 http://peakoiltaskforce.net/download-the-report/2010-peak-oil-report/


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The Challenges

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Decarbonising transport

Security and Affordability


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UK Electricity Drivers and opportunities

Political drivers

CO2, security, cost (fuel poverty)

EU policy

Political change possible new emission limits

Affordability

ENERGY JUNCTION

Low

Carbon

Security

Steve Argent

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Energy Gap huge investment required nuclear closures plus impact of LCPD (2008) and IED (2016)

new generation build (gas, coal, nuclear, renewables)

not forgetting networks

Regulation, Markets and Incentives (are they effective?)

Carbon price, subsidies (e.g. ROC)

Does market incentivise security/flexibility?


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Major challenge to meet UK GHG Emissions targets

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?

Reduction since 1990 mainly

due to dash for gas


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UK Electricity generating

capacityby technologyin 2008

?

UK electricitygeneratedin 2008

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LCPDclosures

by 2015

in next

5-10 years

?


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Shrinking existing capacity

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Uncertain demand andfuture generation mix

Peak Electricity Demand (source National Grid) Generation mix in 2020 - by scenario

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Possible New build UK electricity generating capacity.

Source: Redpoint analysis for response to CCS consultation

Equivalent to two

thirds of existingcapacity

At a rate of approx

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Which may pose

challenges for both

skills and supply

chain


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Greater variations in electricity prices predicted

as a result of the increasing amount of[high capital cost]generating

capacity with low running costs

but with increasing running cost of conventional plant

May bring forward the development of innovative .. arbitraging

between high and low price periods.

Increasing Price Volatility in Future

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ynam c eman managemen an e ec r c y s orage

The future widespread use of electric vehicles could provide

distributed energy storage capacity and could potentially improve

the efficiency by smoothing power demand between day and night.


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Project Discovery With high wind/renewables, the GB system

will increasingly rely on CCGTs to operateflexibly (and at lower annual load factor) in the

future

For CCGTs running at low load factor toremain profitable, prices would need to beallowed to peak to high levels during periods

For Green Scenarios

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Poyry Report

July 2009

How wind

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variabilitycould

change the

shape of UK

and Irishelectricity

markets


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Cars plug in hybrid

Cars full hybrid

Nuclear

Power plant

Biomass co-firing

Coal CCS new build

Low penetration

Wind

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Context Global car fleet predicted to triple by 2050

Can this be reconciled with ambitious CO2 reduction?

Impacts of vehicle charging on the electric grid?

Arup/Cenex study for BERR plus recent Element Energy ReportFuture electric vehicle scenarios for UK


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So whats the solution?

and will the current market deliver it?

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Possible new generationsome more low carbon than others

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uc ear oa y ro storage as ns ore n omass

Wave Tidal Solar/CSP Offshore Wind

So what

driveschoice?


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Capex or unit price as drivers of generation choice?

wholesale

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Source: PB Power Power to the Nation 2006 Source: Ofgem Discovery 2009


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Factors which drive electricity generation investment

Not just unit cost estimates (levelised /MWh) which used to drive

nationalised industry investment.

Now more complex as it requires a view on future costs, cashflow,

risks and uncertainty. Government employ regulations and incentives to steer market

outcome, but even generous incentives may not always deliver as

expected.

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Price fixer or taker?

Capex-Opex balance?

Future price volatility?

Future carbon price/incentives?

Exchange rates?


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UK energy policy is no longer fit for purpose

Overview

Existing nuclear power assets in the UK are fraught withperformance failures and new nuclear is unlikely before 2020

Much needed new coal build is politically and environmentally

unpopular and challenged by environmental regulations

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UK renewables ambitions will be very costly, will not be met, will

not alleviate climate change and may reduce security of supply

The UK will grow dependant on gas, gas and more gas as it fills

the energy gap and backs up intermittent wind to 2020

The recession will ease power demand and carbon emissions, but

will also delay investment in Britains energy infrastructure


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Ofgem Project Discovery

findings so far

High levels of investment are likely to be needed up to 200 billion

may be required by 2020.

more than doubling the recent rate of investment.

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Consumer bills rise in all scenarios.

Elec Bills may increase between 32% and 53% in next decade

BUT as Ofgem assumes energy efficiency will reduce energy use,

Elec Prices go up slightly more (by 33 to 54%)


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Are Electric Vehicles part of the solution?

Global Emissions by sector

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EVs can save 40% CO2 with current

UK grid mix

Considered electrification of transport in UK to 2030.

Key findings:

Cenex / ARUP report for DfT and BERR in 2008

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By 2020, if incentivised by government,

1.0-1.5m EVs and PHEVs 2m Tonnes CO2 saving / year

Reduce UK road transport

emissions by 2%

By 2030, 4m EVs and PHEVs

9m Tonnes CO2 saving / year

Reduce UK road transport

emissions by 9%

www.berr.gov.uk/files/file48653.pdf


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Energy and propulsion alternatives are many.

Arup Cenex study focussed on EV and PHEV

Energy Resources Energy Carriers Propulsion Systems

GaseousGaseousGaseousGaseous

FuelsFuelsFuelsFuels

Gaseous ICEGaseous ICEGaseous ICEGaseous ICE

Natural GasNatural GasNatural GasNatural Gas

CoalCoalCoalCoal

tion

tion

tion

tion

Conventional ICE:Conventional ICE:Conventional ICE:Conventional ICE:

Petrol / DieselPetrol / DieselPetrol / DieselPetrol / Diesel

OilOilOilOil LiquidLiquidLiquidLiquid

FuelsFuelsFuelsFuels

ICE HybridICE HybridICE HybridICE Hybrid

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Electric VehicleElectric VehicleElectric VehicleElectric Vehicle

FuelFuelFuelFuel----Cell ElectricCell ElectricCell ElectricCell ElectricHydrogenHydrogenHydrogenHydrogen

BiomassBiomassBiomassBiomass

NuclearNuclearNuclearNuclear

Other RenewablesOther RenewablesOther RenewablesOther Renewables

(Solar, Wind, Hydro)(Solar, Wind, Hydro)(Solar, Wind, Hydro)(Solar, Wind, Hydro)

ElectricityElectricityElectricityElectricity

Electric VehicleElectric VehicleElectric VehicleElectric Vehicle

Batter

y

Batter

y

Batter

y

Batter

y

Electrific

Electrific

Electrific

Electrific

PlugPlugPlugPlug----In Hybrid PHEVIn Hybrid PHEVIn Hybrid PHEVIn Hybrid PHEV


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Approximate differences in efficiency

ICV10020

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EV10035

50 45


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Electrification of Transport

Overview

The Arup/Cenex study examined a number of factors which will influence the

development, uptake and impact of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid

vehicles within the UK.

The following were considered:

Possible scenarios for the uptake of these vehicles

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vehicles with petrol/diesel vehicles

Battery technologies for electric vehicles

The impact of these vehicles upon the UK electricity grid

Opportunities to develop UK business in support of vehicle development Barriers to be overcome and incentives required to stimulate the market

Demonstration projects to test and further understand the issues surrounding

the mass introduction of these vehicles.


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Uptake Scenarios

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Electric Vehicle Grid Issues

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Before considering the grid impacts of electric vehicle charging, necessary to consider how

the grid system operates and variations in national electricity demand that currently occur.


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Daily Electricity Demand Variation Profiles

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Incentives for a flatter demand profile

Prices in the [current] wholesale electricity market vary by the half hour toreflect the varying cost of generation, incentivising extra generation atpeak and encouraging more demand overnight. Balancing market showsvariations from 40 to 120 per MWh within a day.

Most domestic customers currently pay for their electricity based on astandard (single) tariff rate (Only some domestic/smaller comercialcustomers have dual rate tariffs with lower overnight tariff + higherdaytime tariff.)

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In future, as renewables impose additional variability on other generation,more advanced tariffs may be used (via smart meters) to encouragedemand when generation is available.

Of course this may no longer be solely overnight, depending on windconditions etc.


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Demand response

Cost premium for

more complex

controls etc

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Flat single tariff price:

No incentive for

demand response

Dynamic prices:

Demand encouraged to move

to periods with lower prices


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Reserve frequency response possibilities

The frequency is the same in the

whole interconnected GB

power system,

A chip of the size of a credit card

can measure frequency and

disconnect load in milliseconds

far faster than production can beincreased

No communication is needed

Technology already being tested on

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domestic appliances (grid

friendly fridges)

Scope for applying similar technology to vehicle chargers


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EV Charging demand assumed in Arup study

The total demand from all vehicles with the ability to connect to the

grid is shown in the following chart.

per year 2010 2020 2030

GWh % of

NEP

GWh % of

NEP

GWh % of

NEP

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BaU Total Demand 13 .003 1,800 .5 6,000 1.5

Mid Range total demand 13 .003 3,500 1.0 15,600 4.0

Extreme total demand 13 .003 7,600 2.1 28,400 7.3

NEP = GB National Electricity Production (UK less NI)


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Importance of incentivised EV charging

Assuming that charging demand is chiefly targeted at periods with

surplus generation i.e. off peak or when wind output exceeds average

- sufficient generation capacity to cope with the projected EV demand

overall in the 2010 and 2020 scenarios.

National transmission networks should also be sufficient

any problems of supply should be restricted to pockets within local

distribution systems, especially in cities with high growth in electric car

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usage

A localised high density of plug in EVs has the potential to disrupt the local

distribution system where they charge up, but this would depend on how

clustered the charging points were geographically and the size and timing

of charging demand compared to the load profile for that area.

As EV charging demand increases (e.g. 2030) - clustering and timing

become more sensitive,


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Current Electric Vehicle developments

Further report for Government by Element Energy

Charging practicalities

Arup managing user trials of Electric Vehicles in the Midlands

Smart charging as part of wider Smart Grid initiatives

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The Midlands has been designated a new Low Carbon Economic Area(LCEA) and has won 19million of government funding for researchinto and development of low carbon vehicles.

Key stakeholders in the Midlands LCEA include Advantage West Midlands(AWM), East Midlands Development Agency (EMDA) centre of excellencefor low carbon and fuel cell technologies (CENEX), Technology StrategyBoard (TSB), Jaguar Land Rover (JLS), Toyota, Tata Motors, MitsubishiSAIC and the Universities of Birmingham, Coventry, Warwick andLoughborough


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Greater CO2 savings by

charging overnight

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Element Energy 2009, Strategies for the uptake of electric vehicles and associated infrastructure implications, Final Report for Committee

on Climate Change, http://hmccc.s3.amazonaws.com/Element_Energy_EV_infrastructure_report_for_CCC_2009_final.pdf.


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Electric: Public Charging Points

Many practical issues still to be resolved:

Who owns the charging points?

Who owns the Cable? (and safety)

Billing Street Clutter

Charging at place of work

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Arup now investigating inductive charging

CABLED West Midlands Low Emission Demonstrator Programme


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Consortium of 13 organisations

Arup as Project Managers

6 vehicle manufacturers

E.ON electricity supplier

Birmingham City Council

Coventry City Council

3 universities

Arup led the West Midlands bid to the Technology Strategy Boards

competition for Ultra Low Carbon Demonstrator Vehicles


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Aston

Birmingham Coventry

Additional funding from AWM



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110 vehicles from 6 different manufacturers including full electric,

hybrid and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles


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40 smart fortwo electric drive 25 Mitsubishi i MiEV 25 Tata Indica Vista EV

10 micro:cab urban car 5 Landrover Range-e 5 LTI electric TX4



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Users selected to give a wide socio-economic background, and a

range of car usage


12 month trial

1st vehicles on roads in December 2009

Remainder through 2010

Charging points installed at homes

Charging points installed at workplaces

36 public charging points to be located in

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Birmingham and Coventry

Case Study CABLED West Midlands Low Emission Demonstrator Programme


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Four major objectives from the trial

Vehicle development

User perception

Case Study CABLED West Midlands Low Emission Demonstrator Programme

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How much infrastructure?

Smartgrid E N t k St t G


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Smartgrid Energy Networks Strategy Group

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To Conclude:


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To Conclude:

Advantages of incentivised vehicle charging Charging EVs in off peak periods, particularly at night [or when

wind output is high] is an efficient use of the generating sector and by

flattening the daily demand profile will improve generationefficiency.

Day or peak charging is less desirable.

Network charges mainly relate to maximum demand

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So unit cost to all consumers may reduce slightly as relatively fixed

network costs are divided by a greater number of total units.

Smart Chargingcould provide effective fast reserve

National Grid currently pays 220M per year for fast reserve

E.g. ability to switch off Dinorwig pumping overnight

smart charging could significantly reduce charging cost

Initial estimate


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We only have one planet

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[email protected]

For further information, please contact:

Steve Argent - Arup EnergyArup Campus

Blythe Valley Business Park

Solihull, West Midlands B90 8AE

Tel: +44 121 213 3868

steve argent - low carbon vehicles - 01.03.10

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