Scottish Green Bus Fund

Initial findings from Round 1

• Overview

• Aggregate Performance

• Detailed Analysis

• Concluding Remarks

• Overview

• Aggregate Performance

• Detailed Analysis

• Concluding Remarks

Scottish Green Bus Fund

• Aim to support the wider roll out of low emissions buses

• Reduce GHG emissions from bus fleet and help meet wider climate change reduction targets.

• Must reduce emissions by more than 30% against the chosen emissions benchmark

Scottish Green Bus Fund

• Low carbon engine technology is more expensive

• SGBF will meet up to 80% of the purchase cost differential

• Will be a number of additional costs and potential savings, particularly in the near-term

Scottish Green Bus Fund 1

• Condition of grant includes a performance data return

• Data returns – 6 monthly• Returns needed for at least 3 years

• Evaluation limited to companies with significant purchases under the SGBF 1

In God we trust……. but everyone else must bring data

Data Returns

• Not all buses were bought at the same time in the year

• Do not have all returns for SGBF 1 but sufficient for an emerging picture

Data Returns – key features

• All using the same make of bus • 2 double – decker bus fleets• 2 single deck fleet

• Covers a total of 44 bus purchases • Analysis that follows has been anonymised

• Overview

• Aggregate Performance

• Detailed Analysis

• Concluding Remarks

Routes and Models

• All running city centre/urban - or mainly urban routes

• Two different models of bus

• Each covers a different area of Scotland

Aggregate SGBF headlines

• The ‘average’ green bus travelled just under 33,500 miles in each 6 month period

• Range 21,000 – 46,000 kilometres

• Used 11,900 litres of fuel per period

• 21,000 miles (13,000 – 29,000 miles)• 2,600 gallons of fuel

Average SGBF performance

• 2.83 km/l

• 8.04 mpg

• Maximum variation around mean performance: +16%; -30% Are a few data issues with some individual and collective returns suggesting -23% not -30%

• 80% of SGBF buses within 10% of the 8.04 mpg average

Fleet comparator

• 6.37 mpg• 2.24 km/l• Maximum 9.89 mpg**• Minimum 5.00 mpg

• An average 26% increase in fuel efficiency

Bus Model

• ‘Bus Type 1’ improvement in fuel efficiency 44.6%

• ‘Bus Type 2’ improvement in fuel efficiency 4.1%

• Over a third of Type 2 buses showed a worse outcome

• Why? Number of different possibilities

Emissions impact

• Estimated cumulative savings in carbon dioxide emissions for SGBF 1 returns to date

• 11,500 tonnes of CO2e …..

• ….and counting

• Soon the data will overlap with future Funds

Data anomalies

• Maximum in comparator fleet is above maximum in hybrid fleet (9.89 mpg compared to 9.29 mpg)

• A number of what look like ‘data entry errors’

• Overview

• Aggregate Performance

• Detailed Analysis

• Concluding Remarks

Detailed Analysis

• Looked at data returns from individual companies.

• Considered data by:– Individual bus, – 6 month period, – Bus and 6 month period,– Distance and performance,– Season, and – bus performance ranking

Detailed Analysis

• Also compared findings against the average

• Happy to discuss any of this work 1:1 with any company that has sent returns under SGBF1

• Overview

• Aggregate Performance

• Detailed Analysis

• Concluding Remarks

Concluding Remarks

• Preliminary (incomplete) analysis of SGBF1 data

• Importance of the benchmark

• Is the bus additional or an alternative purchase?

Concluding Remarks

• Suggests significant fuel (and running cost) savings are possible

• Suggests significant emissions savings per bus

• Not considered other costs (and uncertainties)

• Looking at data by period, bus model and trends suggests other factors impact on performance

Concluding Remarks

• Is the purchase price gap between a low emissions bus and standard bus reducing?

• New (additional) maintenance system needed

• Battery replacements costs and replacement timing uncertain

• Risk (large company vs small company)

Concluding Remarks

• Positive impact on patronage and revenues

• Welcome further discussions on findings with companies involved (any SGBF round)

THANK YOU