C Y N A R A D U N C A N , E N V I R O N M E N T A L E D U C A T I O N O F F I C E R

C O N S E R V A T I O N A N D F I S H E R I E S D E P A R T M E N T

C A C C E W O R K S H O P , M A Y A G U E Z , P U E R T O R I C O

F E B R U A R Y 1 - 3 , 2 0 1 2

Status of Climate Change Actions

in the Virgin Islands

Overview of the Enhancing Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change in the UKOTs (ECACC) Project

ECACC

Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment

(VCA)

Institutional mechanism to

address climate change

Adaptation

Ecosystem and climate monitoring

Education

Goal: building capacity for adaptation and mainstreaming climate change

Institutional Mechanism to Address Climate ChangeEnsuring climate change

work continues beyond the ECACC Project

Institutional Mechanism to Address Climate Change

Climate change declared subject matter under Ministry of Natural Resources and Labour

Climate Change Officer post created

Local climate change annual small budget allocated

National Climate Change Committee Cabinet approved in December 2008:

Enhanced Climate & Ecosystem Monitoring

Enhancing climate data, coral reef and beach monitoring

Ecosystem and climate monitoring

Increased weather station network (2 stations)

Strengthened partnership with Reef Check

Restarted beach monitoring programme

Tourism Sector Vulnerability & Capacity Assessment

Understanding and quantifying climate change impacts to tourism

VCA Components Overview

KAP Surveys

Hazard Vulnerability and Risk Assessment

Capacity Assessment

Risk Reduction Options

VCA Components

KAP surveys

Tourist Perception Survey - 30% to 60% say “significant influence” on their decision to revisit BVI.

Tourism managers - owners/managers are concerned about climate change impacts.

General public - ~50% highly concerned climate change; ~ 90% say early adaptation is necessary, even if costly.

Tourist Perception Survey

VCA Components

Hazard Vulnerability and Risk Assessment

o Climate assessment

o Static risk maps – tourism properties/infrastructure in most vulnerable areas

o Beach Vulnerability Assessment - 24% avg. loss for 0.18m rise, 34% for 0.39m, 46% for 0.59m, 68% for 1m, 94% for 2m.

o Sea level rise vulnerability assessment – land area lost with 2m rise = 6% (Tortola), 2% (Virgin Gorda), 78% Anegada, 2% Jost Van Dyke

o Coral reef vulnerability assessment - total estimated decrease in reef value = $1,270,000 (= 25% of 2005 dive/snorkeling sector annual revenue )

o Risk assessment – priority impact areas - Environment, Tourism and Water Resources

Static Risk Map

Beach Vulnerability Assessment

Figure 3.3-3. Areas of Lambert Bay that would be inundated by various sea level rise scenarios. A 0.18m rise results in 33% beach area loss, 0.39m rise results in 44% loss, 0.59m rise results in 56% loss, 1m rise results in 73% loss and 2m rise results in 103% loss by 2090-2099.

0.18m Scenario 0.39m Scenario 0.59m scenarioRank Beach Inundate

dBeach Inundate

dBeach Inundated

1(most

inundation)

Brewer’s Bay

38% Brewer’s Bay

53% Brewer’s Bay

73%

2 Lambert Bay

33% Lambert Bay

44% Lambert Bay 56%

3 Beef Island 30% Beef Island 39% Beef Island 45%

4 Cane Garden Bay

12% Cane Garden Bay

24% Cane Garden Bay

37%

5(least

inundation)

Josiah’s Bay 7% Josiah’s Bay 12% Josiah’s Bay 17%

1m scenario 2m scenarioRank Beach Inundated Beach Inundated

1(most

inundation)

Brewer’s Bay

93% Brewer’s Bay

>>100%

2 Lambert Bay 73% Lambert Bay

103%

3 Cane Garden Bay

68% Cane Garden Bay

103%

4 Beef Island Beach

58% Josiah’s Bay

85%

5(least

inundation)

Josiah’s Bay 48% Beef Island Beach

80%

SLR Maps

Island Land area that would be inundated with a 2m sea level risekm2 acres % of total area

Tortola 3.4 837 6.3%Virgin Gorda 0.7 169 1.8%Anegada 16.3 4, 024 77.6%Jost Van Dyke 0.2 42 2.2%

Climate Assessment Results

Rainfall ↓ in avg. annual rainfall, BUT seasonal changes

↑ avg. monthly rainfall during the tourist season;

Temperature ↑ in avg. temp by 4.8°C by end of Century.

↑ in avg. temp by 1.4°C by 2011-2020 period (enough to trigger mass bleaching events)

Wind ↓ wind speed during the tourism season

Relative humidity ↑

Comfort index ↑ # of days classified as “uncomfortable”

Climate Assessment Results

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%2

011

-2

02

0

20

21-

20

40

20

41-

20

60

20

61-

20

80

20

61-

20

80

20

81-

20

99

% C

ha

ng

e i

n r

ain

fall

Echam A2

Echam B2

Hadley A2

Hadley B2

Avg. of models

Figure 3.1-10 Average percentage (%) change in rainfall (for future time periods examined) compared to the baseline (1961 –1989). All model scenarios and average/consensus of model scenarios are shown.

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

% C

ha

ng

e i

n r

ain

fall

2011-2020

2021-2040

2041-2060

2061-2080

2081-2099

2011-2099

Figure 3.1-13 Percentage (%) change in monthly rainfall (for future time periods examined) compared to the baseline. Average/consensus of model scenarios only is shown.

VCA Components

Capacity Assessment

Local CCC formed

↑ technical capacity needed – e.g. in land use planning and engineering

Urgent need for comprehensive environmental law and updated planning regs

NIDP, PDP and other management plans needed to guide development

VCA Components

Risk Reduction Options

Specific adaptation measures proposed for each impact under each affected sector as outlined in the draft Climate Change Policy

Diversify and increase resilience of economic sectors Improve environmental protection, disaster

management and development planning.

Adaptation Planning

Developing consensus-based, no-regrets strategies to minimize climate change impacts

“Wa

rmin

g o

f th

e c

lim

ate

sy

ste

m i

s u

ne

qu

ivo

cal”

IP

CC

20

07

Syn

thes

is R

epor

t

Impacts Happening Now

Coral bleaching

Flood events

– 2003 US $19,147,898

2007 record dengue

outbreaks

Stakeholder Consultation Approach

Country Vulnerability Profile

1st Stakeholder Consultation Climate Change Issues Paper

2nd Stakeholder Consultation Climate Change Green Paper

3rd Stakeholder Consultation Draft Climate Change Policy

Final Stakeholder Consultation

Cabinet Approved Climate Change Adaptation Policy

Public Education and Outreach

Building public and political awareness

Print Media / Internet

Climate Change and Tourism Brochure (November, 2008)

Newspaper mini series (May – June,2009)

Christian ads in newspaper (September, 2009)

Poster series (October, 2009)

Articles in the Hurricane Guide (June, 2009)

Update of CFD website (September, 2009)

Radio and TV

TV and Radio talk show appearances and radio reports

Minister’s World Environment Day Address (June 5th)

Climate change radio nuggets (May, 2009)

DDM TV (Focus) two 1hr features

Climate change radio soap opera series (coming soon)

Film

JNCC DVD distribution (May – June)

“Islands on the Edge: A Look at Climate Change in the Caribbean” “Climate Change in the UK Overseas Territories.”

Public screening of “An Inconvenient Truth” (June)

Students / Public Display

Logo competition (June – September, 2009)

Presentation to High School Science Department and Environmental Club (September, 2009)

350 beach event (October, 2009)

Skit about health and safety in the workplace – climate change aspect (2010)

Parade for the Planet (June 10, 2010)

Emancipation Festival Troupe – “Climate Change Messengers” (August, 201

“Climate Change and The Virgin Islands” public exhibit (ongoing)

BVI Participating in global 350 event!

Political Directorate

Presence at VCA Workshop, August 2008

Cabinet Paper “Developing a Mechanism for Addressing Climate Change in The Virgin Islands”

Climate change: An overview for politicians and senior decision makers Climate change: What does it mean for tourism?

Presence at Second Climate Change Stakeholder Consultation

Presentation to Caucus, September 21, 2010(Distribution of Green Paper)

Some Planned Activities

Climate change overview brief for Ministers

Climate change impact wall (along highway)

Climate Change Student Guide

30 second video clip about climate change for Facebook and other online media

Adaptation Pilot Project – Cane Garden Bay

Vetiver grass – erosion / flood controlPermeable Interlocking Concrete Pavement – flood controlGhut maintenance protocol – flood control