status and changes to the us national emissions inventory (nei)
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Status and Changes to the US National Emissions Inventory (NEI). Thompson G. Pace, PE U.S. EPA Research Triangle Park, NC. Overview of this Presentation. Brief Perspective on The US’s PM Problems The US’s National Emissions Inventory Current Practices Changes being considered / implemented - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Status and Changes to the US National Emissions Inventory (NEI)
Thompson G. Pace, PE
U.S. EPA
Research Triangle Park, NC
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Overview of this Presentation Brief Perspective on The US’s PM Problems The US’s National Emissions Inventory
Current Practices Changes being considered / implemented
Specific source categories (and process-based model development) Wildland Fires Fugitive Dust Mobile Sources Ammonia
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PM 2.5 In Ambient Air - A Complex MixturePM 2.5 In Ambient Air - A Complex Mixture
Primary Particles(Directly Emitted)
Secondary Particles(From Precursor Gases)
Carbonaceous
OtherCrustal Ammonium
Nitrate
NOx
AmmoniumSulfate
SO2
SecondaryOrganics
VOC
Ammonia
Crustal
June 2000 / tgp
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PM2.5 Ambient Composition Carbonaceous SulfateSoilNitrate Not Chemically
Characterized
S. Coast(Avg 28 ug/m3)
Phoenix(13.3 ug/m3)
Knoxville(18.8 ug/m3)
Seattle(8.7 ug/m3)
Rochester(14.9 ug/m3)
San Joaquin Valley(Avg - 37 ug/m3)
New Haven(13.7 ug/m3)
Washington, DC(14.5 ug/m3)
Urban
Denver(Welby)
El Paso(22.5 ug/m3)
Birmingham(21.3 ug/m3)
Dallas(18.3 ug/m3)
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Total Carbon – Directly Emitted PM2.5(National Emissions ~ 2M TPY)
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Transportable Fugitive Dust
Agricultural Burning
Ind. & Comm. Processes
Res. Heating & Open Burning
Ind. & Comm. Combustion
Mobile Sources
Wildland Fire
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SO2 – Precursor to Ammonium Sulfate Formation(National Emissions ~ 17.6 M TPY)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Other
Mobile Sources
Industrial Processes
Other Fuel Comb.
Electric Utiilities
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NH3 – Precursor to Ammonium Sulfate & Nitrate(National Emissions ~ 4.8 M TPY)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Other
Waste Disposal
Industrial Processes
Highway Vehicles
Fertilizer Application
Animal Husbandry
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Crustal Materials (Mainly Fugitive Dust) PM2.5 is usually < 1 ug/m3 annual average
Exception: Most of Southwest, California Main Sources:
Unpaved roads Agricultural tilling Construction Windblown dust Fly ash
Large emissions – low transportable fraction
PreliminaryNEI for
Base Year 20XX
States & Other
Stakeholders
Improved NEI for
Base Year 20XX
Local Activity Levels & Variables
Factorand Model
Improvements
Refining & Improving Inputs(Process Repeated Yearly - Emphasized every 3 Years)
Starting Point for NEI
Emissions Processor
Input to AQ Model
Emission Factors & Models
State / Local / Tribe Improvements
Databases for Source
Activity Levels
Defaults - Emissions
Related Variables
Existing Point
Source Data
Growth Factors for
Some Categories
NEI Development ~ Cooperative, Iterative
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Changes to NEI Preparation Process 12 month Schedule is being considered
(now 36 months) Improving the Technical Infrastructure
Develop Improved Tools Data Acquisition, Estimation & Distribution New technologies must be used
GIS Process Models Remote Sensing
PM2.5 Program Priorities Wildland Fires, Fugitive Dust, Mobile Sources & Ammonia
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Fuel Type and Loading
Fuel Consumption
Emissions Production
Dispersion / AQ Modeling / Monitoring
Fire Occurrence
Fire EmissionsProcess Modeling
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Tools to Support Fire Emissions Estimation
Fire Occurrence Databases Ground-based data systems Remote Sensing
Comparison of Ground Reported and Remote Sensed FiresAugust 1, 2001
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Potential Role(s) for Remote Sensing in Fire Emissions Estimation and Smoke Transport Fire Identification & Characterization
Time & date, location, size Fuel Characterization (Fuel Type & Loading)
Default maps (resolution, specificity) Natural alterations to “default” conditions Fuel treatments to reduce fire hazard Fuel moisture
Emissions Production Heat release & emissions Plume initial conditions
Transport & transformation Terrain Impacted populations
Ground-truthing Actual vs modeled plume path fixed networks & portable monitoring * Re
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Tools to Support Fire Emissions Estimation
Fire Occurrence Databases Ground-based data systems Remote Sensing
Fire Emissions Modeling AP-42 and past National Emissions Inventories
Methods simplistic, migrating to newer tools for 2002 (v2) Current: NFDRS, Consume, FOFEM, EPM New: Fire Emissions Production Simulator (FEPS) replaces EPM New: FCC national fuels mapping replacement for NFDRS
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Tools to Support Fire Emissions Estimation
Fire Occurrence Databases Ground-based data systems Remote Sensing
Fire Emissions Modeling AP-42 and past National Emissions Inventories
Methods simplistic, migrating to newer tools for 2002 (v2) Current: NFDRS, Consume, FOFEM, EPM New: Fire Emissions Production Simulator (FEPS) replaces EPM New: FCC national fuels mapping replacement for NFDRS
BlueSky system BlueSky-EM (emissions) RAINS Grid-model Linkage
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BlueSkyRAINS ~ Output Products
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Example Fire Trajectories for August 1, 2004
[BlueSkyRAINS (BSR) and Hazard Mapping System (HMS) Disagree]
Legend
BSR Fire
HMS Fire
Trajectories by
BSR Modeling (Every 3 Hr)
Trajectories by Remote Sensing (AM & PM)
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Fugitive Dust Technical Issues
Emissions very high (wrt) crustal matter in samples PM2.5 to PM10 Ratio Removal of dust near the source (< 100m)
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Fugitive Dust Technical Issues
Emissions very high (wrt) crustal matter in samples PM2.5 to PM10 Ratio Removal of dust near the source (< 100m)
Process-based Emissions Model (future) Soil / road surface silt content Soil moisture Rainfall Crop cover Ground cover Wind speed
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Other PM Priority Source Categories Mobile Sources
Mobile 6 & NONROAD (2004 version) NMIM, consolidated model w/ county database
Temperature, barometric pressure Fuel properties Vehicle Kilometers Traveled
Complete rework of models forthcoming Multi-scale mOtor Vehicle & equipment Emissions System
Ammonia Process-based model under development by RPO’s
Condensibles Including condensibles increased PM2.5 significantly
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In Summary NEI Development Schedule
We believe the US can shorten its NEI development schedule by factor of 2 or 3
Better utilization of emerging technologies GIS, Remote Sensing, Process-based emissions models
Priority categories for PM Wildland Fires Fugitive Dust Mobile Sources Ammonia Condensibles