statistical forecasting: estimation made easy
TRANSCRIPT
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STATISTICAL FORECASTING
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DON’T DO IT
T. DEMARCO, T. LISTER: WALTZING WITH BEARS
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ACCURACY OF ESTIMATION
SOURCE: TSAI, KLAYMAN, HASTIE: EFFECTS OF AMOUNT OF INFORMATION ON JUDGMENT ACCURACY AND CONFIDENCE
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ESTIMATION BIAS
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LEA
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WORK TIME
LEAD TIME FLOW EFFICIENCY =
LEAD TIME
WORK TIME
LEA WAIT TIME
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LEA
LEA
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THROUGHPUT VS STORY POINTS
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UNIVERSE’S PLANS
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source: DOGHOUSEDIARIES
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BASED ON THE WORK OF TROY MAGENNIS, LARRY MACCHERONE AND DOUGLAS HUBBARD
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MONTE CARLO EXAMPLE
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AVERAGE PACE FORECAST - SIMPLE REGRESSION
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MONTE CARLO EXAMPLE: THROUGHPUT SAMPLES
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MONTE CARLO EXAMPLE: THROUPUT DISTRIBUTION
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MONTE CARLO EXAMPLE: UNLUCKY BRIAN
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MONTE CARLO EXAMPLE: WORST CASE SCENARIO
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MONTE CARLO EXAMPLE: BEST CASE SCENARIO
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MONTE CARLO EXAMPLE
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MONTE CARLO EXAMPLE
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MONTE CARLO EXAMPLE
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MONTE CARLO EXAMPLE
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MONTE CARLO EXAMPLE
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HISTORICAL DATA: COMPLETED STORIES
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HISTORICAL DATA: TIMELINE
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STATISTICAL MODEL: INPUT #1
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WHY LEAD TIMES?
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LEAD TIME
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HISTORICAL DATA: LEAD TIMES
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LEAD TIME DISTRIBUTION
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LEAD TIME DISTRIBUTION
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STATISTICAL MODEL: INPUT #2
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HISTORICAL DATA: WORK IN PROGRESS
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WORK IN PROGRESS DISTRIBUTION
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READY…
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Iteration
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SAMPLING LEAD TIME VALUES
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SAMPLING LEAD TIME VALUES
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SUM(LEAD TIME VALUES) = UNITS OF WORK
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SAMPLING WORK IN PROGRESS
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SAMPLING WORK IN PROGRESS
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90% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL?
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UNCERTAINTY
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BE BETTER
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SOURCES & RESOURCES
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