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EUROCONTROL

EUROCONTROLShort-Term Forecast

May 2011Flight Movements

2011-2012

EUROCONTROL

© 2011 - European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL)

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A4_short-Term_forecast.indd 3-4 29/04/11 15:50

EUROCONTROL/STATFOR/Doc431 v1.0 20/05/11

EUROCONTROL Short-Term Forecast, May 2011. IFR Flight Movements 2011-2012.

Summary: North African disruptions slow European flight growth. 2011 is forecast to see 3.2% (±0.8%) growth in flights across Europe, a downwards revision on the last publication. Flights to and from Egypt, Libya and Tunisia were severely disrupted by the unrest in the first part of the year. Based on a gradual recovery scenario from the current situation in these three States, the North African disruptions are expected to cut around 1% off European air traffic in 2011. 2012 will be similar (3.1% growth, ±0.9%). Part of this growth is due to the leap year effect as well as major sporting events. Traffic forecast in 2012 has slightly been revised downwards compared to the last publication; the scenario developed for the gradual restoration of North-Africa flights “biting” into next year’s growth. The 2012 forecast also includes the introduction of the Emission trading Scheme (ETS). This forecast uses data to April 2011. The underlying trends in these data are masked by the 2010 April ash-cloud episode; as a result, there is risk that we have over-compensated for the event. If so, the next forecast might be revised upwards. Notwithstanding this risk, there remain downside risks to the forecast: oil, aviation taxes, economic fragility in some parts of Europe, and other political upheavals. The scenario chosen for the speed of traffic restoration in North Africa is just one of many, and the recovery could come earlier or later, implying downside and upside risks, particularly for the neighbouring States. The forecast will next be updated in September 2011, together with the medium-term forecast.

Figure 1. Growth of IFR movements in 2011 (Uncertainty is typically 0.8 percentage points.)

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EUROCONTROL Short-Term Forecast, May 2011. IFR Flight Movements 2011-2012. EUROCONTROL/STATFOR/Doc431

1. INTRODUCTION The Statistics and Forecast Service (STATFOR) of EUROCONTROL produces a short-term (two years) forecast of IFR flights in Europe. This is published four times per year: independently in May and December, and as an integral part of the medium-term forecast in February and September.

This update of the flight forecast uses the improved method that was first put into operation in February 2009 and enhanced in February 2010. This method is outlined in Annex B. For the current forecast, a number of small changes were necessary to allow the local North African effects to be modelled.

Reporting of the forecast for this summary report remains focused on the main flows for each State, and for the EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area (ESRA08). The ESRA081 represents the whole of Europe. It is a large, stable subset of the Member States used for comparison purposes since 2009.

In the remainder of this document:

Section 2 looks at what has changed since the last forecast, and what this says about trends in growth.

Section 3 summarizes the forecast for 2011.

Section 4 outlines the forecast for 2012.

The next short-term forecast will be published at the end of September 2011 as part of the medium-term forecast update.

1 See www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/faq for map of ESRA08.

http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/faq


2. RECENT TRAFFIC TRENDS For the first part of 2011, tracking the underlying growth in European traffic remained difficult because growth was including compensating growth for the 2010 events (bad weather, strikes and ash-cloud episode). Over the last three months, the underlying traffic growth trend (~2%) in Europe has been at the low end of the last forecast.

GDP in the EU27 is expected to grow 1¾% in 2011 and 2% in 2012, an upwards revision compared to the last forecast published in autumn. Some States like Germany or other smaller export-oriented ones have registered a solid rebound for 2011 while some others are still contracting (Greece, Ireland and Portugal). However, it seems that the correlation between GDP growth and traffic growth in Europe is being disrupted by other factors at the moment. One of the underlying factors of the weak traffic growth is linked with high oil prices.

Since the beginning of 2011, oil and fuel prices have been consistently increasing as shown in Figure 2, apart from a brief reversal in early May. Carriers have in general been able to increase ticket prices (fuel surcharges) but have been increasingly blaming rising fuel prices when reporting Q1 losses. Some operators are thinking of tightening their cost-reduction programmes (already in place) to compensate for the rise in fuel expenditure.

Figure 2. Oil prices hikes put pressure on carriers’ costs (Source: EIA, Eurostat, IATA, preliminary data for May).

As shown in Figure 3, weekly load factors for the EU cross-border traffic are comparable to the 2010 levels (except the shift during the Easter break, happening later in 2011 than in 2010). AEA reported declining load factors in February and March (year-on-year) overall. Capacity seems to have been brought back onto passenger markets while demand was shrinking during the period.

Part of this low demand is explained by the recent North African political unrest, Middle East upheaval as well as Japan disaster. The slowdown in traffic for specific States, having an impact on European traffic, is addressed in Figure 7.


Figure 3. Passenger load factors are comparable to 2010 levels since the beginning of 2011 (Source: AEA)

Figure 4 shows the growth per market segment since the beginning of 2011 for Europe. Excluding April from the analysis, charter (“non-scheduled” in the graph) is suffering worst from the traffic disruption in Egypt in particular (-11% in March compared to the same month last year). Low-cost and traditional scheduled segments have been running at around 3-4% above last year’s level until the end of the winter period.

Figure 4. Growth per market segment since the beginning of the year. Exceptional growth in April 2011 is explained by the traffic compensation due to the ash-crisis episode last year.

The summer timetable has begun weakly; the growth is varied until the end of spring and the outlook for summer months remains fragile. Some airlines took long to fill their summer schedules (May). The latest update finally shows Germany, Poland, Ireland, Greece and Romania with fewer flights scheduled this summer than last one. On the other hand, Nordic States, Turkey, Italy, France and Portugal will see more than 2% more flights compared to last summer. At European level, the schedule mirrors our expectation of 1-2% growth for the summer (on summer 10).

Figure 5 shows the States bringing most traffic (excluding overflights) to the network over the February to April period. Flight growth is not uniformly distributed across the States however; busiest States (e.g. France, UK) are now among the front contributors, which was not the case in 2010. In February and April, the figures overstate the underlying rates because of strikes in February 2010 and ash-cloud episode in April 2010. As a result, Germany, France and UK (severely affected by the aforementioned events) have pushed ahead of Turkey in the list of States adding most flights to the network. Traffic between the major


European States themselves (Germany, France, Spain, Italy, UK) intensified compared to the same period last year. Finland and Sweden local traffic have improved compared to last year too, a trend which seems to carry on for the summer (schedules). The unresolved economic crisis and the impact of traffic losses from/to Egypt2 reduced traffic in Greece compared to last year .

Figure 5. States contributing much in changing traffic flows in the European network in February-April 2011 period (threshold=|20| flight/Day).

Figure 6 shows traffic growth to the top 6 destinations outside Europe. United States and Russia (bringing respectively more than 400 and 300 departures per day to the network in April) have been a clear source of growth since the beginning of this year3. Traffic to Egypt collapsed in February (versus last year) and started to recover in March but the pace of the recovery will not be as rapid as the dive (see Figure 7).

Figure 6. Main changes in flows from outside Europe in the last three months.

The crisis situation in North Africa is having an continuing impact on European traffic, especially on European overflights. Figure 7 shows the recent traffic trends from Europe to Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Japan. Between February and April, we estimate that the Egyptian, Tunisian and Libyan traffic disruptions have removed around 0.4% of total ESRA traffic for 2011 so far. After having experienced traffic reductions by around 50% (on last year’s levels), traffic in Egypt and Tunisia is currently running at 25% below the same levels last year. Civil traffic to/from Libya halted4 since the 18th of March after the

2 Traffic disruptions in Egypt have a wider impact at overflights level for Greece, not considered in Figure 5. 3 April month data is still misleading due to widespread traffic disruption in April 2010. 4 Military flights are however performed which explains the non-flat curve on the graph.


Security Council imposes a no-fly zone over the territory. Traffic between Europe and Japan dropped in mid-March following the natural disasters and nuclear crisis (around -20% for one month on 2010 levels). Since the end of April, traffic has practically been catching up with pre-Earthquake levels. The impact on European flight counts was minor and short-lived so, no adjustment has been made to compensate for the lost traffic.

Figure 7. Disruptions in North-Africa burden ESRA’s traffic since January. Traffic disruption from/to Japan nearly recovered in one month time.

3. THE FORECAST FOR 2011 The start of 2011 shows signs of weak traffic growth in Europe. For the first 4 months of the year, the underlying traffic growth trend for Europe was around 2%, on the low-end of the previous forecast. On one hand, European economy is set to further consolidate and expected to bring in traffic demand; on the other hand, weak traffic demand for summer, increasing oil prices as well as traffic disruptions due to political unrest in North Africa have slowed down the rate of traffic growth, as described in the previous section.

May 2011 is the first month of the forecast. At the time of writing, traffic in Egypt and Tunisia is running 25% below last year’s levels and no-fly zone over Libyan territory is still in place. This has an impact on European overflights, especially for the neighbouring European States (e.g. Malta, Greece, Cyprus). There are a number of credible scenarios for recovery from the current situation. For Egypt and Tunisia, we have based the forecast on a gradual recovery but still some reduction in 2012. For Libyan overflights, we also assumed a gradual restoration of flights. Even if the no-fly zone was removed at the beginning of July, return to positive growth is likely to be gradual until the end of summer 2012. We applied the same restoration scenario for Malta (overflights), severely impacted by the flight restriction in Libya. Based on a scenario of gradual reinstatement of traffic during the summer, including a partial reinstatement of flights over Libya, or a partial use by carriers of reinstated overflight routes we expect the North African disruptions to knock perhaps 1% off ESRA growth in 2011.

The net effect of the relatively low growth trend and the slow traffic restoration scenario (North Africa disruptions) is for a forecast for 2011 which is, at the European level, lower than in the February publication. The number of flights in European region in 2011 is likely to end around 3.2% above 2010. Figure 8 compares the range of the new forecast with the actual traffic in 2010. The statistical forecast says the uncertainty around this 3.2% is ±0.8%, but the uncertainty in the recovery scenarios for North Africa means that the true range is wider.

Figure 8. Traffic growth in the ESRA08.

Actual traffic in 2011

Forecast traffic range in 2011

(Forecasted May 2011) Actual traffic

in 2010

Details per state and region are provided in Annex A as well as in the map in Figure 1.

Risks to the forecast:

The short-term forecast is influenced by recent trends in growth, but these have been very difficult to detect. This forecast is largely influenced by lost flights in 2010 (notably April). These resulted in 16% growth (record) figure in April for Europe, within which it is difficult to extract the underlying growth for the summer; and 1%-2% traffic one way or the other is the order of magnitude of the current underlying trend. There is a risk that the next forecast will be revised upwards, once we will have been able to detect the core traffic growth trend.

The scenario developed to adjust for traffic disruptions in North Africa implies a gradual restoration of traffic through to summer 2012. We have been able to model only one such scenario. The restoration could easily be different from this, implying both downside risks and upside risks. A strong alternative candidate would be for a slightly faster recovery in Tunisia and Egypt, but a longer delay before restoration of Libyan overflights.

The potential for fuel prices to continue to rise (as discussed in section 2, Figure 2), limiting

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airlines’ willingness to increase flight frequencies if that would threaten load factors.

Very recent data suggest the potential for slower growth in the Hungary-Romania overflight corridor, with traffic flying instead closer to the Adriatic coast. These overflight routings along the South-East axis remain quite fluid; and any capacity shortage implemented in a single State could result in traffic jump in another State.

The interaction between the strategies of airlines and changes to aviation taxation. With tax introductions in Germany and Austria in 2011 and decreases in Ireland, airline responses are likely. Summer schedule cuts to 1% off in Germany (versus last summer) have been mentioned. All this is before the start of the Emissions Trading Scheme, which kicks off in January 2012 (and whose estimated effects influence this forecast through its link to the medium-term forecast).

Figure 9 compares the new short-term forecast for 2011 as a whole with the one published in February 2011. The numbers on the chart highlight the differences between the new forecast and the one made in January 2011, in terms of percentage point change in growth of IFR movements in 2011. So for example, the forecast for Albania total flights has reduced by between 4 and 6 percentage points, which takes it below the narrow forecast range, so a medium blue circle is shown.

For the largest regions (France, Germany, UK), Figure 9 shows that all of the changes are within the forecast range (grey). Generally there are more downward revisions (blue) than upward (red). The larger upwards changes, for Canaries, Finland and Sweden are a result of sustained, or accelerating, high growth, especially in arrivals/departures. The larger downwards changes, for Malta, Greece, Cyprus, Italy amongst others, are directly attributed to the effects of the no-fly zone in Libya considerably reducing overflights traffic in these States. Note that overflight decrease in growth over ESRA is explained by the sharp drop in traffic between Russia and Egypt (-60% of the Jan-Apr period versus last year).

Figure 9. Difference between the new forecast and the previous Short-Term Forecast, in terms of total growth in 2011.5

5 Note that because internal flows are often small, percentage changes can be large, which is why many of the largest circles are

in the ‘internal’ column.


4. THE OUTLOOK FOR 2012 The 20-month span of the forecast extends to the end of 2012. Figure 10 shows the forecast for the whole of 2012, which is for 3.1% growth across Europe (0.9%). Total flights in 2012 will slightly exceed 2008’s volumes. There are several factors included in the 2012 forecast, amongst which major sports events, leap-year effect.

Figure 10. Forecast for 2012. (Uncertainty is typically 0.85 percentage points, 0.9 for States with 1million flights)


A. FORECAST FOR 2011 AND 2012 Note that, from the February 2011 forecast, the mid range (25th-75th percentile) of the short-term forecast are aligned with the low-high scenarios in the medium-term forecast.

Table 1. Summary of forecast total IFR flight growth per traffic zone.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

AAGR 2012/ 2010

H . . . . . 4.9% 7.0% 6.0% B 2.7% 19% 4.5% 8.9% 12% 3.8% 5.8% 4.8%

Albania

L . . . . . 2.9% 4.9% 3.9% H . . . . . 6.4% 9.5% 7.9% B 2.6% 11% 8.0% -6.7% 9.3% 5.3% 8.1% 6.7%

Armenia

L . . . . . 4.4% 7.0% 5.7% H . . . . . 4.0% 5.5% 4.7% B 4.1% 8.1% 2.0% -7.6% 2.2% 3.0% 4.3% 3.7%

Austria

L . . . . . 2.2% 3.6% 2.9% H . . . . . -0.1% 6.9% 3.3% B . 4.3% 13% 0.5% 11% -1.1% 5.6% 2.2%

Azerbaijan

L . . . . . -1.9% 4.5% 1.2% H . . . . . 13% 6.3% 9.5% B 13% 18% 16% -8.6% 7.7% 12% 5.0% 8.2%

Belarus

L . . . . . 11% 4.2% 7.4% H . . . . . 5.6% 3.4% 4.5% B 4.9% 4.2% 0.7% -7.9% 1.5% 4.7% 2.5% 3.6%

Belgium/Luxembourg

L . . . . . 4.0% 1.9% 2.9% H . . . . . 12% 9.3% 10.5% B 5.5% 19% 8.5% 3.1% 11% 10% 8.0% 9.2%

Bosnia-Herzegovina

L . . . . . 9.5% 7.1% 8.3% H . . . . . 5.2% 7.2% 6.2% B 1.6% 11% 7.7% -0.2% 5.6% 4.1% 5.9% 5.0%

Bulgaria

L . . . . . 3.2% 5.2% 4.2% H . . . . . 9.5% 4.9% 7.2% B 4.0% 1.7% -0.2% -13% 3.2% 8.5% 3.6% 6.0%

Canary Islands

L . . . . . 7.8% 2.7% 5.2% H . . . . . 7.9% 9.2% 8.6% B 2.4% 17% 6.0% 0.1% 8.7% 6.8% 8.0% 7.4%

Croatia

L . . . . . 5.8% 7.1% 6.5% H . . . . . 0.7% 3.8% 2.2% B 4.1% 12% 12% -1.7% 6.4% -0.5% 2.4% 0.9%

Cyprus

L . . . . . -1.6% 0.9% -0.4% H . . . . . 6.0% 5.2% 5.6% B 2.4% 5.6% 5.5% -5.0% 3.2% 4.9% 4.1% 4.5%

Czech Republic

L . . . . . 4.1% 3.4% 3.8% H . . . . . 6.7% 4.9% 5.8% B 2.9% 4.8% -0.3% -8.5% 3.3% 5.9% 4.1% 5.0%

Denmark

L . . . . . 5.1% 3.6% 4.4% H . . . . . 12% 7.8% 10.0% B -5.7% 12% 13% -12% 2.1% 11% 6.7% 8.9%

Estonia

L . . . . . 10% 6.0% 8.2% H . . . . . 3.0% 3.4% 3.2% B 6.8% 3.9% 2.0% -0.1% -0.1% 1.7% 2.1% 1.9%

FYROM

L . . . . . 0.7% 1.2% 1.0% H . . . . . 11% 4.1% 7.6% B 1.4% -0.3% 6.3% -7.7% 0.6% 10% 3.2% 6.7%

Finland

L . . . . . 9.6% 2.6% 6.1% H . . . . . 6.2% 3.8% 5.0% B 3.9% 6.0% -0.2% -7.3% -0.2% 5.2% 2.9% 4.0%

France

L . . . . . 4.5% 2.2% 3.3% H . . . . . 12% 8.8% 10.4% B -1.2% 9.7% -0.0% -3.6% 22% 11% 7.6% 9.1%

Georgia

L . . . . . 9.7% 6.4% 8.0% H . . . . . 5.1% 4.3% 4.7% B 4.2% 4.6% 1.4% -7.0% 1.7% 4.2% 3.3% 3.7%

Germany

L . . . . . 3.4% 2.6% 3.0% H . . . . . -0.2% 5.2% 2.4% B 3.2% 9.9% 3.4% -0.8% 2.6% -1.2% 4.0% 1.4%

Greece

L . . . . . -2.1% 3.1% 0.4% H . . . . . 2.0% 4.1% 3.1% B 4.4% 1.8% 1.1% -2.3% 2.4% 0.9% 2.9% 1.9%

Hungary

L . . . . . 0.1% 2.1% 1.1%


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

AAGR 2012/ 2010

H . . . . . 8.8% 7.1% 7.9% B 4.1% 5.7% 4.2% -7.8% 0.6% 7.9% 6.1% 7.0%

Iceland

L . . . . . 7.1% 5.4% 6.2% H . . . . . 4.4% 3.7% 4.0% B 5.4% 5.9% 0.5% -12% -3.1% 3.5% 2.6% 3.1%

Ireland

L . . . . . 2.8% 2.0% 2.4% H . . . . . 2.7% 2.8% 2.7% B 4.0% 8.4% -2.4% -5.1% 3.9% 1.8% 1.6% 1.7%

Italy

L . . . . . 1.1% 0.7% 0.9% H . . . . . 9.3% 6.5% 7.9% B 13% 15% 11% -8.4% 4.0% 8.3% 5.4% 6.9%

Latvia

L . . . . . 7.5% 4.8% 6.1% H . . . . . 6.9% 4.7% 5.8% B 5.7% 6.3% 2.7% -7.2% 5.6% 5.9% 3.6% 4.8%

Lisbon FIR

L . . . . . 5.1% 2.8% 4.0% H . . . . . 10% 7.2% 8.8% B 6.0% 13% 12% -12% 7.3% 9.4% 6.1% 7.7%

Lithuania

L . . . . . 8.6% 5.4% 7.0% H . . . . . -8.8% 4.5% -2.4% B 0.2% 8.1% 3.4% 0.7% 12% -10% 2.9% -3.9%

Malta

L . . . . . -11% 1.7% -5.1% H . . . . . 6.5% 6.6% 6.6% B 7.8% 25% 18% 6.7% 24% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4%

Moldova

L . . . . . 4.4% 4.6% 4.5% H . . . . . 7.3% 4.0% 5.6% B 6.0% 4.9% -1.6% -8.6% 1.7% 6.5% 3.3% 4.9%

Netherlands

L . . . . . 5.8% 2.7% 4.2% H . . . . . 5.3% 3.8% 4.6% B 6.1% 4.5% 2.6% -4.4% 2.2% 4.7% 3.0% 3.8%

Norway

L . . . . . 4.1% 2.5% 3.3% H . . . . . 7.4% 8.2% 7.8% B 16% 13% 10% -7.6% 5.8% 6.4% 7.0% 6.7%

Poland

L . . . . . 5.6% 6.3% 5.9% H . . . . . 1.2% 5.3% 3.2% B 1.3% 4.0% 2.7% -2.3% 8.2% 0.1% 3.9% 2.0%

Romania

L . . . . . -0.8% 3.0% 1.1% H . . . . . 4.7% 3.9% 4.3% B 0.9% 1.7% 6.5% -2.6% 4.5% 3.8% 2.9% 3.4%

Santa Maria FIR

L . . . . . 3.0% 2.2% 2.6% H . . . . . 5.9% 7.7% 6.8% B 8.7% 16% 8.6% 3.3% 5.9% 4.8% 6.5% 5.7%

Serbia&Montenegro

L . . . . . 3.9% 5.7% 4.8% H . . . . . 2.3% 4.7% 3.5% B 3.8% -1.6% 6.4% -2.4% 9.9% 1.3% 3.5% 2.4%

Slovakia

L . . . . . 0.4% 2.7% 1.6% H . . . . . 8.3% 8.1% 8.2% B 3.7% 15% 6.8% -4.2% 4.8% 7.2% 6.9% 7.0%

Slovenia

L . . . . . 6.2% 6.1% 6.2% H . . . . . 5.4% 3.8% 4.6% B 5.1% 8.4% -1.8% -9.5% 1.8% 4.3% 2.6% 3.4%

Spain

L . . . . . 3.4% 1.7% 2.5% H . . . . . 7.3% 5.7% 6.5% B 3.8% 2.8% 3.9% -11% 1.5% 6.6% 4.8% 5.7%

Sweden

L . . . . . 6.0% 4.3% 5.1% H . . . . . 5.1% 4.2% 4.7% B 2.4% 5.9% 0.3% -7.1% 0.7% 4.2% 3.2% 3.7%

Switzerland

L . . . . . 3.4% 2.5% 3.0% H . . . . . 5.9% 7.7% 6.8% B 8.0% 9.2% 8.6% 4.2% 13% 5.0% 6.4% 5.7%

Turkey

L . . . . . 4.2% 5.4% 4.8% H . . . . . 6.1% 8.0% 7.1% B 1.3% 8.2% 8.7% -6.9% 14% 5.2% 6.9% 6.1%

Ukraine

L . . . . . 4.5% 6.1% 5.3% H . . . . . 4.0% 2.9% 3.5% B 3.4% 3.5% -1.4% -9.4% -4.3% 3.3% 2.2% 2.7%

UK

L . . . . . 2.6% 1.6% 2.1% H . . . . . 4.1% 4.3% 4.2% B 3.9% 5.1% 0.4% -6.6% 0.7% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%

ESRA02

L . . . . . 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% H . . . . . 3.9% 4.0% 4.0% EU27 B 3.5% 5.6% 0.3% -7.2% 0.2% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

AAGR 2012/ 2010

L . . . . . 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% H . . . . . 4.0% 4.1% 4.1% B 3.7% 5.0% 0.4% -6.6% 0.8% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1%

ESRA08

L . . . . . 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% H . . . . . 3.8% 4.0% 3.9% B 3.6% 4.9% 0.4% -6.9% 0.2% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

SES

L . . . . . 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% H . . . . . 6.7% 6.9% 6.8% B . . . -8.6% 5.5% 5.6% 5.7% 5.7%

Baltic

L . . . . . 4.8% 5.0% 4.9% H . . . . . 1.5% 5.7% 3.6% B . . . -3.7% 3.7% 0.6% 4.5% 2.5%

Blue Med

L . . . . . -0.2% 3.5% 1.6% H . . . . . 3.6% 7.1% 5.3% B . . . -0.4% 6.7% 2.6% 5.7% 4.1%

Danube

L . . . . . 1.7% 4.9% 3.3% H . . . . . 4.0% 5.8% 4.9% B . . . -5.1% 3.2% 3.0% 4.6% 3.8%

FAB CE

L . . . . . 2.2% 3.8% 3.0% H . . . . . 5.2% 3.8% 4.5% B . . . -7.0% 0.5% 4.3% 2.8% 3.6%

FAB EC

L . . . . . 3.6% 2.2% 2.9% H . . . . . 6.4% 4.5% 5.4% B . . . -8.0% 2.2% 5.6% 3.6% 4.6%

NEFAB

L . . . . . 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% H . . . . . 4.9% 3.7% 4.3% B . . . -9.3% 1.9% 3.8% 2.5% 3.2%

SW Portugal - Spai

L . . . . . 3.0% 1.6% 2.3% H . . . . . 4.1% 3.0% 3.6% B . . 3E8% -9.5% -4.3% 3.4% 2.3% 2.8%

UK-Ireland

L . . . . . 2.7% 1.7% 2.2% H . . . . . 6.6% 4.7% 5.6% B . . . -9.7% 2.4% 5.8% 3.9% 4.8%

DK-SE

L . . . . . 5.1% 3.3% 4.2%


B. NEW SHORT-TERM FORECAST METHOD

The new short-term forecast method combines inputs from several forecasts. Time-series modeling plays a large part. Final traffic is capped to match airport capacities.

The short-term forecast focuses on time-series modeling of traffic trends month-by-month. The final result is in terms of numbers of flights per month per pair of zones or regions: within Europe origin-destination zones are used (groups of airports often smaller than States); outside of Europe, large regions are used (groups of States). Four separate forecasts (with differing horizons and time and geographical resolution) contribute to the forecast as a whole (see Figure 11):

1. The State-flow forecast method is the previous method. It has been used for several years for published short-term forecasts. It forecasts each State separately, and within the State, separate forecasts for a few main ‘flows’: internals, overflights etc.

2. The zone or region-pair forecast is largely based on time-series methods for some 8000 series.

3. The schedule method uses data from published schedules for future months, and comparisons of previous schedules with actual flights.

4. The first years of the medium-term forecast also contribute a view of future traffic.

The combined forecast is then capped by airport capacities, using the same method as used in the medium- and long-term forecasts. Overflights are calculated using both the trends identified in the short-term forecast, and the base-year flight patterns used previously in the medium-term forecast. The result is a single forecast from which short- and medium-term views can be reported.

Figure 11. Summary of short-term forecast method.

Historical Archive:Monthly Airport-Pair Data

Short-term Forecast Medium-Term Forecast(Parts of method only)

Zone/Region-PairForecast Method

ScheduleForecast Method

Historical Archive:Published Schedule

Combine

Supporting Data:-Events-Calendars

State-FlowForecast Method

Apply annual capacities

Initial Airport-PairForecast

Aligned Airport-PairForecast

Final Airport-Pair Forecast

FinalForecast

ForecastOverflights

The forecast method is continuously being refined to improve the quality of the outputs. The main change in this release is:

Introduction of an economic indicator (quarterly GDP) used as an explanatory variable in the time-series forecast (item 2 in the list above).

© 2011 The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL).

This document is published by EUROCONTROL for information purposes. It may be copied in whole or in part, provided that EUROCONTROL is mentioned as the source and to the extent justified by the non-commercial use (not for sale). The information in this document may not be modified without prior written permission from EUROCONTROL.

The use of the document is at the user’s sole risk and responsibility. EUROCONTROL expressly disclaims any and all warranties with respect to any content within the document, express or implied.

For further information please contact,

STATFOR, the EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service

[email protected]

http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor

The EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service (STATFOR) is ISO 9001:2008 certified.

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http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor

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