State of the WA Environment Climate Change Vulnerabilities & Impacts:

The unavoidable need for managing change

Dr Wally Cox

Chairman

Environmental Protection Authority

SoE Overview • Report to community and decision

makers (every 5 years)• Major environmental issues and

trends• Raise awareness• ID responses required

• Report out in late 2006

WA State of the Environment 2006

Pressures State

Response

SOER

Scope

• Fundamental Pressures:– CLIMATE CHANGE , population &

consumption

• Major environmental themes:– Land, air, inland waters, marine,

biodiversity , human settlements, heritage

• NRM Sectors:– Agriculture, mining, energy, water supply

etc

WA State of the Environment 2006

Climate change identified in every section

Climate ChangeClimate ChangeAnthropogenic

Drivers

Vulnerability

Western Australian ImpactsWestern Australian Impacts

SpontaneousAdaptation

ResidualVulnerability

NaturalDrivers

WestWestAustralianAustralianActionAction

Emissions,MitigationEmissions,Mitigation

Planned Adaptation(ie reduction of vulnerability

WA State of the Environment 2006

Aspects of climate change

WA’s position

• Primary focus greenhouse gas emissions mitigation

• Global emissions reduction beyond our control

• Change is inevitable

• WA must prepare to live with and adapt to climate change

WA State of the Environment 2006

Vulnerabilities

• Key drivers temperature and rainfall

• Every living organism has a T & R range

• Implications for natural and economic systems in WA

WA State of the Environment 2006

Key vulnerabilities - natural systemsGeneral: Climate change will exacerbate current threats to biodiversity, natural systems

Individual species: Some threatened spp. even more vulnerable,Some too slow to adapt, move

eg Stirling Range Moggridgea sp. spider

V narrow range, highly vulnerable to fire, increased fire incidence will increase vulnerability

Endangered mammal spp. In the SW eg Dibbler

Exacerbation of existing threats – loss of habitat, increased fire threat

Vegetation assemblages Impacts on many vegetation types

eg Decline in Tuart, Wandoo

Already subject to a number of stresses

Decline in Karri, Marri, Tingles

Future risk from lower rainfall

Ecosystems

Coral reef bleaching Increase in # high sea temperature events

Loss of wetlands Lower rainfall, increased eutrophication

Decline in riverine ecosystems

Reduced streamflow, increased eutrophication

Key vulnerabilities - economic systemsGeneral: Most NRM sectors vulnerable to CC

Sector Vulnerability Drivers

Water supply -SW

Risks to quantity and quality of water supply

Decreased rainfall, increased evaporation, corresponding non-linear decrease in runoff & g/water recharge

Agriculture Changing productivity, impacts on farm profitability

Increased temperatures, changes in evaporation, enhanced CO2 concentrations, increased seasonal variability, changes in rainfall intensities

Pastoralism Decrease in viability of (southern) rangelands

Rainfall decline in southern rangelands leading to reduced pasture growth and water availability

Forestry Changing productivity, changes in sustainable yields from native forests

Rainfall decline, increasing temperatures, exacerbation of pests and diseases

Gnangara Mound decline

Consequences

Banksia littoralis

Banksia prionotes

Regelia ciliata

Yanchep Caves Stygofauna and root

matt communities

Median monthly flows for the Harris River, near Collie before and after 1976

Adaptation - Principles• Prevent and/or modify threats

• Change uses / activities

• Change location of activities

• Expand research into impacts, technologies and methods of adaptation

• Educate, inform and encourage behavioural change

WA State of the Environment 2006

Adaptation - capacity• Some areas will be able to adapt:

– Water sector– Coastal planning– Agriculture

• Some won’t– Vulnerable SW ecosystems – Wheatbelt spp.– Southern rangelands?– Coral reefs – Ningaloo, Dampier

Archipelago

WA State of the Environment 2006

Intervention?

WA State of the Environment 2006

Natural adaptation

Intervention: adaptive management

Extreme / deliberate intervention -‘Last line of defence’

Millenium Seed Bank Project, cryogenic chamber Yanchep stygofauna

Cost of intervention

Technology requirements

Timeframe

Knowledge

Conclusion

• The “Greenhouse Bulldozer” is coming • We have a moral obligation to reduce our

GHG emissions• We need to:

– Enhance our understanding of the impacts for WA environment and sectors

– Plan to adapt AND – Adapt

WA State of the Environment 2006