State of the Oceans 2006-2007

Albert Fischer

OOPC-12

Paris, France, 2-5 May 2007

Ocean climate indices from data

• Observing system evaluation– In the long term: the development of ocean forecasting and ocean

reanalyses, and observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) will provide specific feedback

– Right now: estimating the uncertainty in the measure of climate indices

• quantities that act as indicators of climate variability• towards a measure of our ability to observe

• Liaison/outreach– A way to communicate about the ocean observing system and the

ocean’s role in climate and climate variability - what is the influence of the ocean on weather/climate and what is it doing right now

http://ioc.unesco.org/oopc/

State of the ocean

Dipole Mode Index (DMI)

Dipole Mode Index (DMI)

Seasonal precipitation anomaly

JJA2006

SON2006

CAMS OPI

raingauge+OLR(Xie & Arkin)

Standardized Precipitation Index (stdevs from normal)

plotted usingIRI data library

Seasonal precipitation anomaly

CAMS OPI

raingauge+OLR(Xie & Arkin)

Standardized Precipitation Index (stdevs from normal)

Sea surface height anomaly

NRL ssha analysisvia NOAA/AOML

Sep 2006

Sea surface height anomaly

NRL ssha analysisvia NOAA/AOML

Dec 2006

Sea surface height anomaly

NRL ssha analysisvia NOAA/AOML

Apr 2007

Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SSTA

Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SSTA

Pacific Warm Water Volume

NOAA/PMEL

Willis, Lyman, Johnson, and Gilson, correction submitted April 2007

published Lyman et al (Sep 2006)

same analysis without SOLO/FSI floats

Ocean Heat Content Anomaly

Increasing visibility

• shown largely to a community ‘in the know’ (ocean observations community)

• Incoming traffic– exposure with links from IOC and GOOS, CLIVAR, and JAMSTEC

web sites

– 30% from google (‘dipole mode’, ‘tropical atlantic’, ‘ocean climate/transport’, ‘essential climate variables’)

– 40% direct (bookmarked)

• now averaging 600 visits/month– from all continents except Antarctica

• In current form geared to ocean climate scientists

Where we know we want to improve

• Information about the impacts associated with the index - patterns of climate variability, links between indices, changes in rainfall, even historical examples; with references

• more subsurface indices: upper ocean heat content, mixed layer / thermocline depth, MOC, transports like ITF, mode waters, salinity changes, taking advantage of time series (mooring, repeat XBT) with improved uncertainty estimates

• sea level indices (including dynamic indices from altimetry)• composite indices (ex: hurricane index - combination of ocean heat content

and atmospheric conditions)

• sea ice• polar oceans• more information/better links about the observing networks

contributing to the calculation of the index• while retaining easy accessibility - a limit on the number of ‘top level’

indices - an ‘expert’ toggle?