state of the industry: market update - inntopia · •aspen •avon, colorado •big sky...

Ralf Garrison, Director - DestiMetrics Business Intelligence

Tom Foley, Director - Inntopia Business Intelligence

May 23, 2017

State of the Industry:Market Update

Destination/Lodging Research ProgramMountain West Markets

2

What you ought to know…about winter destinations

• Aspen

• Avon, Colorado

• Big Sky

• Breckenridge

• Beaver Creek

• Copper Mountain

• Gunnison/Crested Butte

• Keystone

• Mt Bachelor

• Mammoth Lakes

• Jackson Hole

• North Lake Tahoe

• Park City Area

• Snowmass

• Steamboat

• Summit County, CO

• Telluride

• Vail

• Winter Park

DestiMetrics: Mountain – West Clients

Destination/Lodging Research Sun/Fun Markets

3

What you ought to know…about summer destinations

6

FLORIDA –PANHANDLE

• Osceola-Kissimmee

• Monroe - Florida Keys

• Bay County - Panama City Beach

• Gulf Shores

• Okaloosa (New!)

FUTURE - Prospective

• San Destin/Ft Walton

• Escambia - Pensacola

• Pinellas -Clearwater St Pete

VISIT FLORIDA

- Transient Lodging Inventory

• 25 County DMO’s

EASTERN SEABOARD/OTHER

• Hilton Head

• Golden Isles

FUTURE- Prospective

• Myrtle Beach

• Virginia Beach

• Charleston

• Outer Banks

HAWAII

• Oahu / Maui / Kauai /Kona

1. Situation Assessment• Economy

• Attractions

• Lodging• Transportation

2. Market Update•Winter 2016/17 Review

• Summer 2017 Preview

Situational Assessment

Conditions which impact your ability to

do business over which you have no

direct control.

5

Dow Jones

Confidence

Unemployment

Confidence, The DOW & UnemploymentJanuary ‘06 – January ‘17

14

20,941

120.3

4.4%

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%

Confidence, The DOW & UnemploymentLast 90 Days

14

• Dow Jones:

• Record-setting performance

• Plateau in recent weeks

• Waiting for: Interest Rate Changes & Deregulation

• Currency & foreign markets remain an issue

• Potential challenges in Washington

• NAFTA

• Consumer Confidence

• Back to December 2000 levels

• Consumers willing to spend putting lodgers in charge

• Interest rates going up, inflation going up, earnings flat

• Unemployment Rate / Jobs

• Stable & Low

• Job Creation slightly variant, averaged 184k over winter

• Wages remain below inflation

• Long-term & marginally unemployed an issue

• NAFTA

Volatility Index

Source: CNN Money, May 9, 2017

8

9

Trump-o-nomics

International

Domestic Mid-Market

9The Economy


• Attractions




Attractions

11

“Brand Magnets” = Demand Generators

Attractions vs Activities

Anchor Attractions: Ski/Golf/Bike, etc

Special Events

Holidays; School Breaks

Demand Enablers vs Generators

Attractions: Destination Magnet

12

✓ATTRACTION:

• Reason to Go (on Vacation)

✓ACTIVITY:

• Something to do (while on Vacation)

✓DESTINATION MAGNET

• Attractions that draw a guest from a distance, requiring lodging and services for multiple nights.

Attractions: Update

13

✓ Purpose-Based Travel• Experiential• Friends/Family• Occasions: Landmark Events

✓ Identity - Driven Travel• “Who You Are… Wanna Be”, not just what you do…

✓ Trending• Health /Wellness• Recreational/Social exercise• Foodie-based Tourism• Post Title 9: , Pilates, Zumba, Barre • More Indoors, Less Outdoors

51.9

53.7

53.9

53.3

50.0

46.7

50.8

54.0 54

.6

52.7

54.0

52.5

54.1

52.1

52.2

57.3

54.4

57.6

57.1

56.9

58.9

55.1

60.5

57.4

59.8 60

.5

51.0

56.9

56.2

53.6

53.9 54

.7

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

Ski

er/S

now

boar

der

Vis

its (

mill

ions

)

*Source: NSAA

Estimated Skier Visits*85/86-16/17 and 4 Year Moving Average

14

2016/17

54.7

YTD Golf Rounds Played – 2016

Year To Date @ 3/31:

NE Florida -3% National 0.6% Florida -5.6%South Carolina -3.4% S. Atlantic -1.1%

-30-25-20-15-10

-505

101520

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Florida

S Carolina

National

South Atlantic

NE Florida

Special Event Measurement

16

89%83% 81%

77%70% 70%

63% 60%53% 51% 50%

45%40% 39%

34% 34% 33% 30%24%

18%

2%10%

15%

4%

14%19% 17%

21%27% 28%

34%38%

45%37%

43%50%

43%

55%

69%

60%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Visitor type

Full-time resident

Seasonal resident

Day visitor

Overnight visitor

Demand Enablers:

School Break Report ’16-’17

17


• Attractions




Resort Lodging: 2010-2015

✓ Key Component of Destination Vacations: Enabler/ Limiting Factor

✓ Recession: 8 Year Roller Coaster of Supply & Demand

✓ Aging Bed-base

✓ Changing demand patterns: away from tradition

✓ Disintermediation from OTA’s /Destination/Property Direct

✓ Emergence of RBO and Peer-to-Peer Networks

19

Lodging: Update: 2016 – 2017: “ Pillow Fight…”

20

✓ Advent/Growth of “Alternative” Accommodations

✓ Rapid Growth in the Rent-by-Owner: Sharing Economy

✓ Major Competition for Beds: Hot – Warm – Cold

✓ Morphing Channels: Peer-to-Peer no longer RBO

✓ Undergoing evolution, Dis-Intermediation, Disruption

✓ Heightened Regulatory Pushback – now underway

Hotels

Condos

Private

Homes

Time

Share

Rent By Owner

VRBOAirbnb

HomeAway.com

Graphic representation not to scale.

Morphing Bed Base

NEW: Rent-By-Owner: Initiative

23


• Attractions




Transportation: Trends: Airline Industry

25

• Headline: Strongest Profitability Ever over the last four years.

• Airlines consistently profitable since 2010; trend should continue

• Profit drivers include capacity restraint aided by industry consolidation, lower fuel prices, increases in ancillary revenue

• Industry Consolidation – top 5 now control 87% of U.S. Domestic Market. 81% is controlled by 4 airlines. Of the 19% controlled by all other, more than 50% is now Alaska and Jet Blue.

• International Trends – Continued integration of global carriers,


• Attractions




Industry Wide Occupancy Winter 2016/17

-5%

-3%

1%

3%

0%

1%

Data as of 4/30/17

0%

Industry Wide ADR Winter 2016/17

6%

5%

6%5%

13%

7%

13%

Data as of 4/30/17

Industry Wide RevPAR Winter 2016/17

1%1%

7%

9%

13%

7%

14%

Data as of 4/30/17

Year over Year % Change Occupancy and ADR Winter 2016/17

Data as of 4/30/17

31

Industry Daily Occupancy Report Winter 2016/17Data as of 4/30/17

Regional Breakdown Winter 2016/17 32

Year over Year% Change in

INDUSTRY-WIDE FAR WEST(CA, OR, NV)

ROCKY MTNS(MT, WY, CO, UT)

Occupancy

0.

ADR

RevPAR

7.5%

7.2%

7.2%

7.0%

2.9%

3.8%

0.9%-0.3%-0.2%

Winter 2016/17 Occupancy, ADR, RevPARSpectrum

33

AGGREGATE

HIGH

AGGREGATE

LOW

AGGREGATE

AVERAGE

DESTINATIONS

GAIN / DECLINE

Occupancy 60.6% 29.6% 48.4% 12/6

ADR $567 $141 $390 17/1

RevPAR $330 $46 $188 14/4

26.8%21.9%

3.6%

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

'07/08 '08/09 vs'07/08

'09/10 vs'07/08

'10/11/vs07/08

'11/12 vs07/08

'12/13 vs'07/08

13/14 vs'07/08

14/15 vs'07/08

15/16 vs'07/08

16/17 vs'07/09

Winter Gain / Loss: DMX Aggregate Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR 2008/09 - 2016/17 Actual vs 2007/08 Actual

% Chg RevPAR vs 2007/08 % Chg ADR vs 2007/08 % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007/08

Winter Index34

26.8%21.9%

3.6%

-9.6%

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

'07/08 '08/09 vs'07/08

'09/10 vs'07/08

'10/11/vs07/08

'11/12 vs07/08

'12/13 vs'07/08

13/14 vs'07/08

14/15 vs'07/08

15/16 vs'07/08

16/17 vs'07/08

Winter Gain / Loss: DMX Aggregate Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR 2008/09 - 2016/17 Actual vs 2007/08 Actual (Include Skier Days)

% Chg RevPAR vs 2007/08 % Chg ADR vs 2007/08 % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007/08 % Chg Skier Days vs 2007/08

Winter 7 Year Index to 2007/08Winter Occupancy, Revenue, CCI & Skier Visits

35


-2%

7%

8%

2%

Data as of 4/30/17

SouthEast Occupancy Winter 2016/17

1%

-3%

-2%


4%

8%

5%

Data as of 4/30/17

SouthEast ADR Winter 2016/17

1%0%

-6%

0%


12%

17%

7%

Data as of 4/30/17

SouthEast RevPAR Winter 2016/17

2%

-2%

-8%

-2%


• Attractions




51.3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Summer 2017 asof Apr 30

59.4%Summer 2017 as

of Apr 30

Summer 2017 Business On the Books as % of 2016 total

40

Revenue

Room Nights

Industry Wide Occupancy Summer 2017

1%-1%

0%

11%

Data as of 4/30/17

1%

5%

1%

Industry Wide ADR Summer 2017

4%

9%

8%

5%

Data as of 4/30/17

14%

8%9%

Industry Wide RevPAR Summer 2017

5%

8%8%

16%

Data as of 4/30/17

19%

8%

10%

Industry Year over Year % Change Occupancy and ADR – Summer 2017

Data as of 4/30/17

45

Industry Daily Occupancy Report Summer 2017Data as of 4/30/17

Thank You!

Inntopia Insight 2017

state of the industry: market update - inntopia · •aspen •avon, colorado •big sky...

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