State of the Economy

Measured Optimism

Noteworthy events since last Symposium

• Obamacare• A Republican Senate• ISIS• Alibaba public offering• Ebola• Ukraine• Malaysia Airlines’ misfortune• Germany wins the World Cup, Brazil humiliated• A college football playoff

Energy Prices Plunge

Note: Prices shown are through end of day January 11, 2015.

Comment: Oil prices have declined by 60% over the past 6 months and by 50% in just the past three months.

Comment:It has taken 5 years but we have achieved neutral.

Comment: Real GDP growth has been solid four of the last five quarters. The poor first quarter of 2014 is usually attributed to bad weather.

Comment: The weakness of the hosing market in 2014 is reflected in the contribution to GDP growth by Residential Fixed Investment.

Comment: Prices have remained quite stable for the last three years.

Comment:Disposable Personal Income has shown little growth over the past two years.

Comments: With the exception of Q1 in 2014, retail sales have been steady for the past three years.

Comment: Unemployment rate has shown a steady decline for 2014.

Comment:Nov 2014 and Nov 2013 numbers are very similar. 2014 was disappointing.

Comment:The index remains positive though not strongly positive.

Comment:Long-term unemployment showed significant improvement in 2014. Median Duration (weeks, not seasonally adjusted) declined from 17.5 to13.0.

Comment:Wells Fargo forecasts modest GDP, retail sales and disposable income growth. Prices and interest rates projected to remain low.