state of the art short - global risk forum grf davos...2010/06/01 · unburied dead bodies...
TRANSCRIPT
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E P dE P dEmergency Preparedness- State of the Art -
Emergency Preparedness- State of the Art -
Prof. David AlexanderUniversity of FlorenceProf. David AlexanderUniversity of Florence
OrganisationOrganisationOrganisationOrganisation
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HazardHazardmonitoring &monitoring &forecastingforecastingDisasterDisaster
managementmanagementmanagementmanagementMajorMajor
incidentincidentmanagementmanagement
IncidentIncident
PoliciesPoliciesPlansPlansProceduresProceduresProtocolsProtocols
Human &Human &materialmaterialresourcesresources
PopulationPopulation(community)(community)protectionprotection
IncidentIncidentmanagementmanagement
Partly after Tierney (2008) Incidents Major
incidents Disasters Catastrophes
Impact Very localised
Generallylocalised
Widespread and severe
Extremelylarge
Local Some mutual Inter- Major Response Local
effortsSome mutualassistance governmental
response
jinternational
response
Plans and procedures
Standard operating
procedures
Emergency plans
activated
Emergency plans fully activated
Plans potentially
overwhelmed
Resources Local resources
Some outside assistance
Interregional transfer of
Localresources resources assistance resources overwhelmed
Publicinvolvement
Very little involvement
Mainly not involved
Public veryinvolved
Extensively involved
Recovery Very few challenges
Few challenges
Major challenges
Massive challenges
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V lNation: policies of
compatibility harmonisation
International:exchange and support
Voluntarysector:
support andintegration Province, region, state, county:
co-ordination, assistance
compatibility, harmonisationand co-ordination
Privatesector:
integrationDisaster
Municipality or other local authority: emergency operations
Emergency preparednessEmergency preparednesshas reached a has reached a crossroadscrossroads
Emergency preparednessEmergency preparednesshas reached a has reached a crossroadscrossroadscrossroads....crossroads....crossroads....crossroads....
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A new classNatural:earthquakes,
floods,landslides etc
Natural:earthquakes,
floods,landslides etc
Technological:toxic spills,
transportationcrashes etc
Technological:toxic spills,
transportationcrashes etc
Forms ofdisaster
landslides, etc.landslides, etc.
S i lS i l I i lI i l
crashes, etc.crashes, etc.
of disaster?Social:
riots, massgatherings,
demonstrations
Social:riots, massgatherings,
demonstrations
Intentional:acts of
terrorism
Intentional:acts of
terrorism
"Civil"Civilcontingencies"contingencies"managementmanagement
"Civil"Civilcontingencies"contingencies"managementmanagement
"Civil"Civilcontingencies"contingencies"managementmanagement
CivilCivilprotectionprotection
CivilCivilprotectionprotection
CivilCivilprotectionprotection
TheThesecuritysecurity
TheThesecuritysecurity
TheThesecuritysecurity
"Homeland"Homeland"Homeland"Homeland"Homeland"Homeland BusinessBusinessBusinessBusinessBusinessBusiness
industryindustryindustryindustryindustryindustry
Emergenciesand disastersEmergenciesand disasters
"Homeland"Homelandsecurity"security"
"Homeland"Homelandsecurity"security"
"Homeland"Homelandsecurity"security"
BusinessBusinesscontinuitycontinuity
managementmanagement
BusinessBusinesscontinuitycontinuity
managementmanagement
BusinessBusinesscontinuitycontinuity
managementmanagementComplexComplexemergenciesemergencies
ComplexComplexemergenciesemergencies
ComplexComplexemergenciesemergencies
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Civil protectionCivil protection::what degree ofwhat degree ofpolitical support?political support?
Civil protectionCivil protection::what degree ofwhat degree ofpolitical support?political support?
Civil protectionCivil protection::what degree ofwhat degree ofpolitical support?political support?
What role forWhat role forthe the securitysecurityindustryindustry ininthe generalthe general
??
What role forWhat role forthe the securitysecurityindustryindustry ininthe generalthe general
??
What role forWhat role forthe the securitysecurityindustryindustry ininthe generalthe general
??
What are theWhat are thelimits of limits of civilcivilcontingenciescontingenciesmanagementmanagement??
What are theWhat are thelimits of limits of civilcivilcontingenciescontingenciesmanagementmanagement??
HomelandHomelandsecuritysecurity::
is reductionis reduction
HomelandHomelandsecuritysecurity::
is reductionis reduction
HomelandHomelandsecuritysecurity::
is reductionis reduction
WhatWhatrelationshiprelationshipf f b ib i
WhatWhatrelationshiprelationshipf f b ib i
WhatWhatrelationshiprelationshipf f b ib i
emergency?emergency?emergency?emergency?emergency?emergency?
Emergenciesand disastersEmergenciesand disasters
is reductionis reductionin civil libertiesin civil liberties
acceptable?acceptable?
is reductionis reductionin civil libertiesin civil liberties
acceptable?acceptable?
is reductionis reductionin civil libertiesin civil liberties
acceptable?acceptable?
of of businessbusinesscontinuitycontinuity
managementmanagementwith civilwith civil
authorities?authorities?
of of businessbusinesscontinuitycontinuity
managementmanagementwith civilwith civil
authorities?authorities?
of of businessbusinesscontinuitycontinuity
managementmanagementwith civilwith civil
authorities?authorities?
Complex emergenciesComplex emergencies::How much aid fromHow much aid fromdonor countries?donor countries?
Complex emergenciesComplex emergencies::How much aid fromHow much aid fromdonor countries?donor countries?
Complex emergenciesComplex emergencies::How much aid fromHow much aid fromdonor countries?donor countries?
Naturaldisasters
Techno-logical
disasters
Socialdisasters
Inten-tional
disasters
Natural AnthropogenicNatural Anthropogenic
Civildefence
Civildefence
Civildefence
"Civil"Civil"Civil
CivilprotectionCivilprotectionCivilprotection
Civilcontingencies"Civilcontingencies"Civilcontingencies"
"Homeland Security"
"Homeland Security"
"Homeland Security"
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Civil contingenciesCivil contingencies
management
BusinessBusinesscontinuitycontinuity
CivilCivilprotectionprotection
Civildefence
ResilienceResilience
management
The risk environmentThe risk environment
Paramilitary forcesParamilitary forces(National Guard)(National Guard)
Paramilitary forcesParamilitary forces(National Guard)(National Guard)
MilitaryMilitaryforcesforcesMilitaryMilitaryforcesforces
PolicePoliceforcesforcesPolicePoliceforcesforces
PMFPMFPMFPMF
MFMFMFMFPFPFPFPF
ItalyItalyItalyItaly
FireFirebrigadesbrigades
FireFirebrigadesbrigades
PublicPublicadministrationsadministrations
PublicPublicadministrationsadministrations
Civilian volunteerCivilian volunteerforcesforces
Civilian volunteerCivilian volunteerforcesforces
FBFBFBFB PAPAPAPACVFCVFCVFCVFPMFPMFPMFPMF
MFMFMFMFPFPFPFPFPMFPMFPMFPMF
FBFBFBFB PAPAPAPACVFCVFCVFCVF
UKUKUKUK
CVFCVFCVFCVF
MFMFMFMF
FBFBFBFB PAPAPAPA
PFPFPFPF
USAUSAUSAUSA
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Military Civilian
Armed Civil administrationforces Volunteers (civil society)
Military Civilian
Armed Civil administrationforces Volunteers (civil society)forces Volunteers (civil society)
Emergency services(army)
[residual role]Civil defence Civil protection
forces Volunteers (civil society)Emergency services
(army)[residual role]
Civil defence Civil protection
Command and control Co-ordinationand co-operation
Chain of command Autonomy
Command and control Co-ordinationand co-operation
Chain of command Autonomy
Counter terrorismCounter terrorism
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Terrorism is a form ofteleological disaster (i.e., piloted)
• it is potentially infinitely mutable
• designing remedies is avery expensive process
h i hi hl d b bl• the scenarios are highly debatable.
EXAMPLE:EXAMPLE: the Aum Shinrikyothe Aum Shinrikyoattack in the attack in the Toyko subway Toyko subway withwiththe the nerve gas nerve gas SarinSarin (1995):(1995):
EXAMPLE:EXAMPLE: the Aum Shinrikyothe Aum Shinrikyoattack in the attack in the Toyko subway Toyko subway withwiththe the nerve gas nerve gas SarinSarin (1995):(1995):
12 d d12 d d•• 12 dead12 dead
•• 4900 people went to4900 people went tohospital, of whom...hospital, of whom...
•• about 1000 were genuinely injuredabout 1000 were genuinely injuredg y jg y j
•• ...about 3900 were suffering from...about 3900 were suffering fromMIPS MIPS -- multiple ideopathic physicalmultiple ideopathic physicalsymptomssymptoms: i.e., : i.e., hypochondriahypochondria..
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The principal effectof terrorism on the
l bli
The principal effectof terrorism on the
l bligeneral publiccould be, not any directinvolvement of peoplein an incident, butthe disruption of
general publiccould be, not any directinvolvement of peoplein an incident, butthe disruption ofp
normal daily life...p
normal daily life...
...with huge costs to society....with huge costs to society.
Armed aggressionArmed aggressionon the part of stateson the part of states
Armed aggressionArmed aggressionon the part of stateson the part of states
Civil defenceCivil defenceNatural disastersNatural disastersNatural disastersNatural disasters
Civil protectionCivil protection
"Homeland security"(civil defence)
"Homeland security"(civil defence)Armed aggressionArmed aggressionon the part ofon the part of
groups of dissidentsgroups of dissidents
Armed aggressionArmed aggressionon the part ofon the part of
groups of dissidentsgroups of dissidents
"Generic" disasters"Generic" disasters"Generic" disasters"Generic" disasters
"Civil contingencies"(resilience)
"Civil contingencies"(resilience)
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Emergency management:Emergency management:an evolutionary approachan evolutionary approachEmergency management:Emergency management:an evolutionary approachan evolutionary approach
Civil defence...............Civil protectionCivil defence...............Civil protectionCivil defence...............Civil protectionCivil defence...............Civil protection
Proxy ParticipatoryProxy Participatory
Command and controlCommand and controlVertical chainVertical chainf df d
CollaborationCollaborationTask forcesTask forces
P l l dP l l dof commandof commandPopulation excludedPopulation excludedLaw and orderLaw and orderSecrecySecrecy
Population consultedPopulation consultedand includedand included
Problem solvingProblem solvingOpennessOpenness
Organisation• procedures• event scenarios
Stockpiling• equipment• supplies
CounterCounter--terrorism activityterrorism activityCounterCounter--terrorism activityterrorism activity
• emergency plans
Intelligence• collection• interpretation• warning
Training• plan dissemination• exercises
pp
warning
Surveillance• automatic (CCTV)• manual (personnel)
Analysis• laboratory• forensic
Involvement of civil protectionInvolvement of civil protectionInvolvement of civil protectionInvolvement of civil protection
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I f ti (1)I f ti (1)Information (1):how emergenciesare perceived
Information (1):how emergenciesare perceived
Shortage ofinformation
Excess ofinformation
InformationInformationcritical but critical but critical but critical but
lackinglacking
Impact of disasterImpact of disasterImpact of disasterImpact of disaster TimeTimeTimeTime
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But publicperception
of disasters
But publicperception
of disastersof disasterscontinues to bedominated bymyths andinaccuracies
enthusiastically
of disasterscontinues to bedominated bymyths andinaccuracies
enthusiasticallyenthusiasticallypropagated by
the mass media.
enthusiasticallypropagated by
the mass media.
"Myth" no. 1:In general terms, disastersare truly exceptional events.
"Myth" no. 1:In general terms, disastersare truly exceptional events.
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"Myth" no. 2:Disasters kill people without respect
to differences of social class.
"Myth" no. 2:Disasters kill people without respect
to differences of social class.
"Myth" no. 3:Hiding under desks offers good
protection if there is an earthquake.
"Myth" no. 3:Hiding under desks offers good
protection if there is an earthquake.
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"Myth" no. 4:"Myth" no. 4:Trapped people survive for many daysunder the rubble of collapsed buildings.
100
brou
ght o
utps
ed b
uilin
gs
50
ntag
e of
peo
ple
bom
und
er c
olla
p
0.5 1 3 12 1 2 3 4 5 7 10 15Hours Days
Survival time
0
Perc
enal
ive
fro
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"Myth" no. 5:Disasters cause a great deal of chaos andthus cannot be managed systematically.
"Myth" no. 5:Disasters cause a great deal of chaos andthus cannot be managed systematically.
"Myth" no. 6:Usually, the first assistance in disasteris supplied by the emergency services.
"Myth" no. 6:Usually, the first assistance in disasteris supplied by the emergency services.
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"Myth" no. 7:"Myth" no. 7:When a disaster occurs there is usuallya shortage of resources and for this
reason the event cannot be managed well
"Myth" no. 7:"Myth" no. 7:When a disaster occurs there is usuallya shortage of resources and for this
reason the event cannot be managed wellreason the event cannot be managed well.reason the event cannot be managed well.
"Myth" no. 8:"Myth" no. 8:When disasters occur people should
donate used clothes.
"Myth" no. 8:"Myth" no. 8:When disasters occur people should
donate used clothes.
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"Myth" no. 9:"Myth" no. 9:Businesses, associations and governmentsare always generous when disaster occurs.
"Myth" no. 9:"Myth" no. 9:Businesses, associations and governmentsare always generous when disaster occurs.
"Myth" no. 10:"Myth" no. 10:When disaster happens,people tend to panic.
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"Myth" no. 11:"Myth" no. 11:People will flee in large numbers
from a disaster area.
"Myth" no. 11:"Myth" no. 11:People will flee in large numbers
from a disaster area.
"Myth" no. 12:"Myth" no. 12:After disaster has struck, peopletend to be dazed and apathetic.
"Myth" no. 12:"Myth" no. 12:After disaster has struck, peopletend to be dazed and apathetic.
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"Myth" no. 13:"Myth" no. 13:Disasters commonly give rise to
spontaneous manifestations of antisocial,behaviour such as outbreaks of lootingbehaviour, such as outbreaks of looting.
Instead we have theInstead we have the therapeutic communitytherapeutic communityInstead we have theInstead we have the therapeutic communitytherapeutic community
"Myth" no. 14:"Myth" no. 14:Unburied dead bodies constitute ahealth hazard and will contaminate
water supplieswater supplies.
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The mass media continually state that theThe mass media continually state that thepresence of unburied bodies after disasterpresence of unburied bodies after disaster
can and will cause disease epidemics.can and will cause disease epidemics.
The mass media continually state that theThe mass media continually state that thepresence of unburied bodies after disasterpresence of unburied bodies after disaster
can and will cause disease epidemics.can and will cause disease epidemics.
"Myth" no. 15:"Myth" no. 15:Spraying bodies, rubble
and survivors with disinfectantstops the spread of disease.
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"Myth" no. 16:"Myth" no. 16:Disease epidemics are a very common
result of the disruption and poor healthcaused by major disasterscaused by major disasters.
"Myth" no. 17:"Myth" no. 17:Field hospitals are useful forthe treatment of the injured.
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"Myth" no. 18:"Myth" no. 18:Great quantities and assortments of
medicines should be sent to disaster areas.
"Myth" no. 19:"Myth" no. 19:Anthrax is a white powder.
"Myth" no. 19:"Myth" no. 19:Anthrax is a white powder.
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"Myth" no. 20:"Myth" no. 20:Technology will save the world
from disasters.
"Myth" no. 21:"Myth" no. 21:Tsunamis are tidal waves.
"Myth" no. 21:"Myth" no. 21:Tsunamis are tidal waves.
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"Myth" no. 22:"Myth" no. 22:Earthquake magnitude is alwaysmeasured on the Richter scale.
Our image of disasters is conditionedOur image of disasters is conditionedfar too much by Hollywood!far too much by Hollywood!
Our image of disasters is conditionedOur image of disasters is conditionedfar too much by Hollywood!far too much by Hollywood!
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M t lM t l
Editorialindependenceand freedom
Obligationto informthe public
MutualMutualantipathyantipathy
ororcollaborativecollaborativerelationship?relationship?
Representativesof the mass
media
Emergencyand disaster
managers
Sales andratings;
reputation;revenue fromadvertising
Public informationcentres; warnings
and alerts;informing the
relatives of victims
Information 2:Information 2:role ofrole of
Information 2:Information 2:role ofrole ofrole ofrole of
technologytechnologyin thein the
managementmanagement
role ofrole oftechnologytechnology
in thein themanagementmanagementmanagementmanagement
of informationof informationmanagementmanagement
of informationof information
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Wisdom:Wisdom: abilityability toto take take decisionsdecisionson the on the basisbasis ofof principlesprinciples,,experienceexperience and and knowledgeknowledge
Knowledge:Knowledge: understanding of howunderstanding of howthings function (or should function)things function (or should function)
Information:Information: description ofdescription ofh i l d i l it tih i l d i l it tiphysical and social situationsphysical and social situations
Data:Data: basic facts and statisticsbasic facts and statistics
COMMUNICATIONCOMMUNICATION
Old ideas...Old ideas...Old ideas...Old ideas...
•• rigid structurerigid structure•• rigid structurerigid structuregg•• hierarchyhierarchy•• military doctrinemilitary doctrine•• secrecysecrecy•• cordoncordon•• command and controlcommand and control
gg•• hierarchyhierarchy•• military doctrinemilitary doctrine•• secrecysecrecy•• cordoncordon•• command and controlcommand and controlcommand and controlcommand and control•• securitysecurity•• civil defence.civil defence.
command and controlcommand and control•• securitysecurity•• civil defence.civil defence.
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New ideas...New ideas...New ideas...New ideas...
•• planningplanning•• collaborationcollaboration•• planningplanning•• collaborationcollaboration•• collaborationcollaboration•• flexible, adaptable managementflexible, adaptable management•• limited "span of control"limited "span of control"•• information sharinginformation sharing•• IT supportIT support
•• collaborationcollaboration•• flexible, adaptable managementflexible, adaptable management•• limited "span of control"limited "span of control"•• information sharinginformation sharing•• IT supportIT support•• accredited journalistsaccredited journalists•• involving the publicinvolving the public•• civil protection.civil protection.
•• accredited journalistsaccredited journalists•• involving the publicinvolving the public•• civil protection.civil protection.
Some effects ofSome effects ofthe informationthe information
and communicationsand communicationstechnology revolutiontechnology revolution
Some effects ofSome effects ofthe informationthe information
and communicationsand communicationstechnology revolutiontechnology revolution
•• flatteningflattening of the chain of commandof the chain of command•• flatteningflattening of the chain of commandof the chain of command•• IT supportIT support for disaster responsefor disaster response•• IT supportIT support for disaster responsefor disaster response•• overloadoverload of information delivery systemsof information delivery systems•• overloadoverload of information delivery systemsof information delivery systems
rtifici lit nd is l ti nrtifici lit nd is l ti nrtifici lit nd is l ti nrtifici lit nd is l ti n
•• the emergency manager must studythe emergency manager must studynew ways to new ways to informinform himself and othershimself and others..
•• the emergency manager must studythe emergency manager must studynew ways to new ways to informinform himself and othershimself and others..
•• artificiality and isolationartificiality and isolationfrom the reality on the groundfrom the reality on the ground
•• artificiality and isolationartificiality and isolationfrom the reality on the groundfrom the reality on the ground
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HumanitarianHumanitarianreliefrelief
HumanitarianHumanitarianreliefreliefreliefreliefreliefrelief
Aceh (Indonesia)K
'Complex emergencies': situations ofpolitical, economic and military collapseand damage to the fabric of society
'Complex emergencies': situations ofpolitical, economic and military collapseand damage to the fabric of society
( )AfghanistanAfrica meridionaleAngolaBurundiCeceniaColombia
KenyaKosovo e i BalcaniLiberiaPakistan settentrionalePalestina e IsraeleRwandaSierra LeoneCorea del Nord
Eritrea e EthiopiaGrandi Laghi AfricaniHaitiIl CaucasoIraq
Sierra LeoneSomaliaSri Lankail SudanTimor OrientaleUganda
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WAR ANDCONFLICT
NATURALDISASTERS
MILITA
RY M
ILITARY
MILITA
RY M
ILITARY
The"MilitaryCross"
The"MilitaryCross"
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCEHUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCEHUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCEHUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE
VULNERABILITYAND
MARGINAL-ISATION
INSECURITYPOVERTY
ASSISTA
NCE
ASSISTA
NCE
ASSISTA
NCE
ASSISTA
NCE
Justice Impartiality
Hijacking ofassistance
Justice Impartiality
HumanitarianismRelief
Robberyand rapeof victims
Totalwar
Whatfuture?
HumanitarianismReliefPoliticisation ofrelief suppies
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ConclusionsConclusions
OGY
OGY
OGY
OGY
• losses in disaster willcontinue to increase steeply
• losses in disaster willcontinue to increase steeply
• poverty and vulnerability will defineever more closely the areas of
• poverty and vulnerability will defineever more closely the areas of
TURO
LOTU
ROLO
TURO
LOTU
ROLO
• at the world scale, one or moregreat events will cause a drasticreorganisation disaster preparedness
• at the world scale, one or moregreat events will cause a drasticreorganisation disaster preparedness
ever more closely the areas ofgreatest susceptibility to disastersever more closely the areas ofgreatest susceptibility to disasters
FUT
FUT
FUT
FUT reorganisation disaster preparednessreorganisation disaster preparedness
• the catalyst event may be avolcanic eruption, an earthquake, ora biological or radioactive incident.
• the catalyst event may be avolcanic eruption, an earthquake, ora biological or radioactive incident.
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•• the job of the the job of the emergency manageremergency managerwill become more and more complexwill become more and more complex
•• the job of the the job of the emergency manageremergency managerwill become more and more complexwill become more and more complex
•• emergency planningemergency planning will havewill haveto tackle new kinds of eventto tackle new kinds of event
•• emergency planningemergency planning will havewill haveto tackle new kinds of eventto tackle new kinds of event
•• emergency managementemergency management willwillvery slowly become a professionvery slowly become a profession
•• emergency managementemergency management willwillvery slowly become a professionvery slowly become a professionvery slowly become a professionvery slowly become a professionvery slowly become a professionvery slowly become a profession
•• the level of the level of internationalinternationalparticipation participation in disasters will risein disasters will rise..
•• the level of the level of internationalinternationalparticipation participation in disasters will risein disasters will rise..
CertificationCertificationof competenceof competenceCertificationCertification
of competenceof competence
EEEE
ResearchResearchResearchResearch ExperienceExperienceExperienceExperience
Recognition andRecognition andRecognition andRecognition and
TrainingTrainingprogrammesprogrammes
TrainingTrainingprogrammesprogrammes
EmergingEmergingprofessionalprofessional
figurefigure
EmergingEmergingprofessionalprofessional
figurefigure
ggan institutionalan institutionalrole for therole for the
professional figureprofessional figure
ggan institutionalan institutionalrole for therole for the
professional figureprofessional figurePolicies andPolicies andlegislationlegislationPolicies andPolicies andlegislationlegislation
OrganiOrgani--sationsation
OrganiOrgani--sationsation
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SustainableSustainable emergencyemergency management:management:--SustainableSustainable emergencyemergency management:management:--
•• isis centredcentred uponupon the the locallocal levellevel((butbut isis harmonisedharmonised fromfrom aboveabove))
•• isis centredcentred uponupon the the locallocal levellevel((butbut isis harmonisedharmonised fromfrom aboveabove))((butbut isis harmonisedharmonised fromfrom aboveabove))((butbut isis harmonisedharmonised fromfrom aboveabove))
•• hashas the the supportsupport andandinvolvementinvolvement ofof the the populationpopulation
•• hashas the the supportsupport andandinvolvementinvolvement ofof the the populationpopulation
•• is based on is based on plansplans that are fullythat are fully l l
•• is based on is based on plansplans that are fullythat are fully l l disseminated and frequently reviseddisseminated and frequently reviseddisseminated and frequently reviseddisseminated and frequently revised
•• is a fundamental, everyis a fundamental, every--day day serviceservicefor the population and is taken for the population and is taken seriouslyseriously..
•• is a fundamental, everyis a fundamental, every--day day serviceservicefor the population and is taken for the population and is taken seriouslyseriously..
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