state of the air transport in 2013 icao aviation data analyses seminar middle east (mid) regional...

State of the Air Transport in 2013

ICAO Aviation Data Analyses SeminarMiddle East (MID) Regional Office

27-29 October

Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP) Section

Air Transport Bureau (ATB)

ICAO Strategic Objective: Economic Development of Air Transport

2

The air transport industry

The air transport industry is not only • a vital engine of global socio-economic growth • but is also of vital importance as a catalyst for

economic development, – creating direct and indirect employment, – supporting tourism and local businesses, and – stimulating foreign investment and international

trade.

Economic benefits of aviation

58.1million

Jobs supported by aviation worldwide

Source: Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), 2014

$2.4 trillion

Global economic impact*

*including direct, indirect, induced and tourism catalytic3

World international cargo shipment

Volume of world international cargo shipment

Value of world international cargo shipment

AviationAviation

Surface modes

Surface modes

4Source: Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), 2014

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42013

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42013

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

1.9%

2.4%2.7%

3.0%

Economic development in 2013

Real GDP Quarter-on-Quarter growth (2013 vs. 2012)

GD

P gr

owth

rate +2.5% = 2013 vs. 2012

Real GDP annual growth

Economic growth recorded an increasing trend over the successive quarterly

growth rates of 2013

5Source: IHS Global Insight

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Turboprop Turbojet

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Turboprop Turbojet

85%88%

Num

ber o

f airc

raft

*

*Active and parked aircraft are included; aircraft having a maximum take-off mass of less than 9 000 kg (20 000 lbs) are not included

Commercial air transport fleet in 2013

Turbojets:- 88% of world fleet in 2013- this share increased every year since 2004

2013: - 1 500 aircraft deliveries- More than 3000 aircraft net ordersfor the world’s major aircraft manufacturer

6Source: Reed Business Information (RBI), aircraft manufacturer websites

2012 20130

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

705,500 717,300 687,100 692,000

Operating Revenues

Operating Expenses

Operating result

US d

olla

rs (b

illio

n)

2012 20130

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

705,500 717,300 687,100 692,000

Operating Revenues

Operating Expenses

Operating result

US d

olla

rs (b

illio

n)

2012 20130

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

705,500 717,300 687,100 692,000

2.6%

3.5%

Operating Revenues

Operating Expenses

Operating resultO

perating results (% of Revenues)

US d

olla

rs (b

illio

n)

Airline operating revenues in 2013: 717 billion USD+1.7% vs. 2012

Airline operating results in 2013:3.5% of operating revenues

+0.9 p.p.* vs. 2012

*percentage points

Air carrier financial results in 2013

7Source: ICAO Annual Report of the Council 2013

1945

1947

1949

1951

1953

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1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

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1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

-

20

40

60

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Reve

nue

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enge

r-Kilo

met

res

(bill

ion)

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nue

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enge

r-Kilo

met

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(bill

ion)

Freight Tonne-Kilometres

(billion)

1945

1947

1949

1951

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1961

1963

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1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

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1983

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Freight Tonne-Kilometres

(billion)Air Transport Development

5.8 trillion RPK

+5.5%growth rate vs. 2012

Scheduled commercial trafficTotal (international and domestic) services8Source: ICAO Annual Reports of the Council

9

2013 - State of Air Transport

Annual analysis on a world and regional level

• 63 pages of comprehensive analysis and key figures of air transport

For each ICAO Statistical Region:• Passenger and cargo traffic for 2011, 2012

and 2013

• Top 15 States, airlines and airports in 2013

• Evolution of LCC market penetration in the last 10 years

World Air Transport in 2013

10

3.1billionPassengers carried

32 millionCommercial flights performed

5.8trillionRevenue Passenger-Kilometres

186billionFreight Tonne-Kilometres

+4.5%vs. 2012

+1.2%vs. 2012

+0.4%vs. 2012

+5.5%vs. 2012

Scheduled commercial trafficTotal (international and domestic) services10Source: ICAO Annual Report of the Council 2013

11

ICAO Statistical Regions

World Air Transport in 2013by Region

12

3.1billionPassengers carried

32 millionCommercial flights performed

5.8trillionRevenue Passenger-Kilometres

186billionFreight Tonne-Kilometres

+4.5%vs. 2012

+1.2%vs. 2012

+0.4%vs. 2012

+5.5%vs. 2012

Europe

Africa

Middle East

Asia and Pacific

North AmericaLatin America and

Caribbean

41.5

3.1

22.6

74.0

39.1

5.3

Europe

Africa

Middle East

Asia and Pacific


Caribbean

7,859.5

918.6

1,131.6

8,558.7

10,997.4

2,559.3

Europe

Africa

Middle East

Asia and Pacific


Caribbean

816,920

72,535

160,721

1,008,424

814,623

229,702

Europe

Africa

Middle East

Asia and Pacific


Caribbean

1,556

134

500

1,785

1,505

303

Passengers carried (million)Aircraft departures (million)

Revenue Passenger-Kilometres (billion) Freight Tonne-Kilometres (billion)

-0.4%

-0.4%

+4.9%

+6.3%

-1.3%

+0.4%

+3.1%

+3.5%

+7.8%

+8.0%

+0.9%

+5.7%

+4.6%

+4.4%

+11.2%

+7.7%

+2.0%

+6.7%

-0.1%

+4.0%

+12.0%

+0.2%

-4.9%

+2.7%

Scheduled commercial trafficTotal (international and domestic) services12Source: ICAO Annual Report of the Council 2013

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

traffi

c sh

are

in te

rms

of R

PK

Africa

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

traffi

c sh

are

in te

rms

of R

PK

Latin America/ Caribbean

Africa

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Middle East

traffi

c sh

are

in te

rms

of R

PK


Africa

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Europe

Middle East

traffi

c sh

are

in te

rms

of R

PK


Africa

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Asia/ Pacific

Europe

Middle East

traffi

c sh

are

in te

rms

of R

PK


Africa

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Asia/ Pacific

North Amer-ica

Europe

Middle East

traffi

c sh

are

in te

rms

of R

PK


Africa

Since 2010: Asia/Pacific ranks 1st

Analysis

Since 2012: Europe ranks 2nd

Middle East has gained market share every year

Passenger traffic:Worldwide distribution (1/2)


Passenger traffic:Worldwide distribution (2/2)

2007

Distribution in Revenue Passenger-Kilometres

North Amer-ica

32%

Asia/ Pacific29%

Europe27%

Middle East6%

Latin Amer-ica/ Carib-

bean4%

Africa2%

Asia/ Pacific31%

Europe27%

North Amer-ica

26%

Middle East9%


bean5%

Africa2%

20131st: North America2nd: Asia/Pacific3rd: Europe

1st: Asia/Pacific2nd: Europe3rd: North America


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

traffi

c sh

are

in te

rms

of F

TK

Africa

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

traffi

c sh

are

in te

rms

of F

TK


Africa

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Middle East

traffi

c sh

are

in te

rms

of F

TK


Africa

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Europe

Middle East

traffi

c sh

are

in te

rms

of F

TK


Africa

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

North Amer-ica

Europe

Middle East

traffi

c sh

are

in te

rms

of F

TK


Africa

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Asia/ Pacific

North Amer-ica

Europe

Middle East

traffi

c sh

are

in te

rms

of F

TK


Africa

Asia/Pacific’s FTK share is 40%

Analysis

Europe ranks clearly 2nd

Asia/Pacific declined in 2011 and 2012

in 2013:

Middle East has gained market share every year

North America declined

Freight traffic:Worldwide distribution (1/2)


Asia/ Pacific42%

North Amer-ica

25%

Europe23%

Middle East7%


bean3%

Africa1%

2007

Distribution in Freight Tonne-Kilometres

1st: Asia/Pacific2nd: North America3rd: Europe

1st: Asia/Pacific2nd: Europe3rd: North America

2013

Asia/ Pacific40%

Europe22%

North Amer-ica

21%

Middle East12%


bean3%

Africa2%

Freight traffic:Worldwide distribution (2/2)


Total (international and domestic) services

United

Emirates

Southwest

Air France

China Southern

Air China

China Eastern

Cathay Pacific

- 100,000,000,000 200,000,000,000 300,000,000,000

RPK (billion)

- 0.5%

+ 2.0%

+ 15.8%

+ 1.6%+5.4%

+ 1.3%

+ 0.5%+ 4.7%

+ 8.6%+ 6.0%

+ 8.7%

+ 6.7%+ 10.9%

+ 2.6%

- 0.5%

Note: scheduled services Source: ICAO Form A and ICAO estimates

- 5 carriers from North America

- 5 carriers from Asia/Pacific

- 4 carriers from Europe

- 1 carrier from Middle East

- 2 low-cost carriers: Southwest and Ryanair

- Highest growth Emirates with +15.8 % RPK growth in 2013 vs 2012

World Top 15 Airlines in 2013

Total (international and domestic) servicesNote: scheduled and non-scheduled services Source: ACI

Atlanta (ATL)Chicago (ORD)

Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW)Los Angeles (LAX)

Denver (DEN)Beijing (PEK)

Charlotte (CLT)Las Vegas (LAS)Houston (IAH)

Paris (CDG)Frankfurt (FRA)

London (LHR)Amsterdam (AMS)

Phoenix (PHX)Philadelphia (PHL)

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000

Departures (thousand)

- 2.1%

+ 0.6%

+ 4.3%

+ 1.6%

- 4.9%

+ 1.9%+ 1.1%

- 1.3%

- 0.8%

- 3.9%

- 2.0%

- 0.7%+ 0.6%

- 3.2%

- 2.0%

- 10 airports in North America (including the Top 5)

- 4 airports in Europe (3 of them recorded negative growth)

- 1 airport in Asia/Pacific: Beijing (PEK)

World Top 15 Airports in 2013

Inter-region capacity offered from Europe to the World

FROM EUROPE:

to North America

to Asia/Pacific

to Africa

to Middle East

to Latin America/ Caribbean

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

20042013

Share of seats offered (%)

2013

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

to North America

to Asia/Pacific

to Africa

to Middle East


seat

s off

ered

(in

dex

100

in 2

004)

to North America

to Asia/Pacific

to Africa

to Middle East


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

20042013


20042013

to North America

to Asia/Pacific

to Africa

to Middle East


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

27%

23%

21%

20%

10%

33%

24%

17%

13%

13%

20042013


20042013

to North America

to Asia/Pacific

to Africa

to Middle East


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

27%

23%

21%

20%

10%

33%

24%

17%

13%

13%

20042013

-6.6 pts

-1.5 pts

+3.8 pts

+6.9 pts

-2.7 pts


20042013

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

to North America

to Asia/Pacific

to Africa

to Middle East


seat

s off

ered

(in

dex

100

in 2

004)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

to North America

to Asia/Pacific

to Africa

to Middle East


seat

s off

ered

(in

dex

100

in 2

004)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

to North America

to Asia/Pacific

to Africa

to Middle East


seat

s off

ered

(in

dex

100

in 2

004)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

to North America

to Asia/Pacific

to Africa

to Middle East


seat

s off

ered

(in

dex

100

in 2

004)

- 1st destination : to North America (-6.6 pts)- Fastest growth destinations during 2004-2013: to Middle East and to Africa 41% share in seats in 2013- Distribution of seats offered among regions is relatively balanced

Scheduled commercial trafficTotal (international and domestic) servicesNote: direct and non-direct flight excluding restrictions - Source: OAG 19

to Europe

to Middle East

to Asia/Pacific

to North America


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

20042013


2013

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220 to Europe

to Middle East

to Asia/Pacific

to North America


seat

s off

ered

(in

dex

100

in 2

004)

Inter-region capacity offered from Africa to the World

to Europe

to Middle East

to Asia/Pacific

to North America


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

20042013


20042013

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220 to Europe

to Middle East

to Asia/Pacific

to North America


seat

s off

ered

(in

dex

100

in 2

004)

to Europe

to Middle East

to Asia/Pacific

to North America


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

62%

29%

5%

3%

1%

69%

21%

6%

3%

1%

20042013

-7.1 pts

+8 pts

-0.4 pts

-0.4 pts

-0.1 pts


20042013

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220 to Europe

to Middle East

to Asia/Pacific

to North America


seat

s off

ered

(in

dex

100

in 2

004)

to Europe

to Middle East

to Asia/Pacific

to North America


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

62%

29%

5%

3%

1%

69%

21%

6%

3%

1%

20042013


20042013

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220 to Europe

to Middle East

to Asia/Pacific

to North America


seat

s off

ered

(in

dex

100

in 2

004)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220 to Europe

to Middle East

to Asia/Pacific

to North America


seat

s off

ered

(in

dex

100

in 2

004)

FROM AFRICA:- 1st destination : to Europe (-7.1 pts) more than 60% of seats offered- Fastest growth destination during 2004-2013: to Middle East 29% share in seats in 2013 (+8 pts)- Distribution of seats offered among regions is very unbalanced


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 80

180

280

380

480

580

680

to Asia/Pacific

to Europe

to Africa

to North America


seat

s off

ered

(in

dex

100

in 2

004)

to Asia/Pacific

to Europe

to Africa

to North America


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

20042013


2013

Inter-region capacity offered from Middle East to the World

to Asia/Pacific

to Europe

to Africa

to North America


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

20042013


20042013

to Asia/Pacific

to Europe

to Africa

to North America


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

45%

33%

17%

4%

1%

47%

35%

14%

3%

0%

20042013


20042013

to Asia/Pacific

to Europe

to Africa

to North America


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

45%

33%

17%

4%

1%

47%

35%

14%

3%

0%

20042013

-1.7 pts

-2.2 pts

+2.2 pts

+1.2 pts

+0.6 pts


20042013

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 80

180

280

380

480

580

680

to Asia/Pacific

to Europe

to Africa

to North America


seat

s off

ered

(in

dex

100

in 2

004)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 80

180

280

380

480

580

680

to Asia/Pacific

to Europe

to Africa

to North America


seat

s off

ered

(in

dex

100

in 2

004)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 80

180

280

380

480

580

680

to Asia/Pacific

to Europe

to Africa

to North America


seat

s off

ered

(in

dex

100

in 2

004)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 80

180

280

380

480

580

680

to Asia/Pacific

to Europe

to Africa

to North America


seat

s off

ered

(in

dex

100

in 2

004)

FROM MIDDLE EAST:- 1st destination : to Asia/Pacific (-1.7 pts)- Fastest growth destination: to Latin America/Caribbean (UAE/Qatar to Brazil/Argentina) few seats- Distribution of seats offered among regions is relatively unbalanced


to Middle East

to Europe

to North America

to Africa


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

20042013


2013

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180 to Middle East

to Europe

to North America

to Africa


seat

s off

ered

(in

dex

100

in 2

004)

Inter-region capacity offered from Asia/Pacific to the World

to Middle East

to Europe

to North America

to Africa


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

20042013


20042013

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180 to Middle East

to Europe

to North America

to Africa


seat

s off

ered

(in

dex

100

in 2

004)

to Middle East

to Europe

to North America

to Africa


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

39%

34%

24%

3%

0%

26%

38%

33%

2%

1%

20042013


20042013

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180 to Middle East

to Europe

to North America

to Africa


seat

s off

ered

(in

dex

100

in 2

004)

to Middle East

to Europe

to North America

to Africa


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

39%

34%

24%

3%

0%

26%

38%

33%

2%

1%

20042013

+13 pts

-3.8 pts

-9.6 pts

+0.4 pts

-0.1 pts


20042013

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180 to Middle East

to Europe

to North America

to Africa


seat

s off

ered

(in

dex

100

in 2

004)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180 to Middle East

to Europe

to North America

to Africa


seat

s off

ered

(in

dex

100

in 2

004)

FROM ASIA/PACIFIC:- 1st destination in 2013 : to Middle East (+13 pts) to Middle East was 3rd in 2004- Fastest growth destination: to Middle East and to Africa few seats to Africa- Distribution of seats offered among regions is relatively unbalanced



to Europe

to Asia/Pacific

to Middle East

to Africa

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

43%

33%

20%

3%

1%

45%

33%

21%

1%

1%

20042013

-1.6 pts

-0.1 pts

-0.8 pts

+2.1 pts

+0.4 pts


20042013

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280 to Latin America/ Caribbean

to Europe

to Asia/Pacific

to Middle East

to Africa

seat

s off

ered

(in

dex

100

in 2

004)

Inter-region capacity offered from North America to the World

FROM NORTH AMERICA:- 1st destination: to Latin America/Caribbean (-1.6 pts) - Fastest growth destination: to Middle East and to Africa few seats offered- Distribution of seats offered among regions is relatively unbalanced


to North America

to Europe

to Middle East

to Asia/Pacific

to Africa

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

75%

23%

1%

1%

0%

77%

22%

0%

1%

0%

20042013

-1.7 pts

+0.8 pts

+0.8 pts

+0 pts

+0.1 pts


20042013

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 80

180

280

380

480

580

680

to North America

to Europe

to Middle East

to Asia/Pacific

to Africa

seat

s off

ered

(in

dex

100

in 2

004)

Inter-region capacity offered from Latin America/Caribbean to the World

FROM LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN:- 1st destination: to North America (-1.7 pts) 75% of seats offered- Fastest growth destination: to Middle East few seats offered- Distribution of seats offered among regions is very unbalanced


- Each airline of the Top 5 recorded an increase- Turkish Airlines:

- +20% growth : Network expansion in 2013: +9 new States served, +26 cities served- 5th largest airline in Europe in 2013

- Top 3 airports recorded each a decrease

EuropeTop 5 airlines and Top 5 airports

Paris (CDG)

Frankfurt (FRA)

London (LHR)

Amsterdam (AMS)

Istanbul (IST)

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Departures (thousand)Note: scheduled and non-scheduled servicesSource: ACI

Note: scheduled servicesSource: ICAO Form A and ICAO estimates

Lufthansa

Air France

British Airways

Ryanair

Turkish Airlines

+ 1.3%*

+ 0.5%

+ 4.7%

+ 6.7%

+ 23.6%

*2013 vs. 2012

Paris (CDG)

Frankfurt (FRA)

London (LHR)

Amsterdam (AMS)

Istanbul (IST)

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


- 3.9%

- 2.0%

- 0.7%

+ 0.5%

+ 11.5%

Total (international and domestic) services25

Top 5 airlines Top 5 airports

- 1st airline and 1st airport are South African - Ethiopian Airlines: +20% RPK growth 2nd largest airline in 2013- Each airport of the Top 5 recorded a decrease in 2013- Africa: +4.4% RPK growth in 2013

AfricaTop 5 airlines - Top 5 airports

South African Airways

Ethiopian Airlines

Egypt Air

Royal Air Maroc

Kenya Airways


Note: scheduled and non-scheduled servicesSource: ACI

Johannesburg (JNB)

Cairo (CAI)

Lagos (LOS)

Nairobi (NBO)

Cape Town (CPT)

- 50,000 100,000


South African Airways

Ethiopian Airlines

Egypt Air

Royal Air Maroc

Kenya Airways

- 0.5%*

+ 20.0%

+ 2.3%

+ 2.9%

- 2.8%

Johannesburg (JNB)

Cairo (CAI)

Lagos (LOS)

Nairobi (NBO)

Cape Town (CPT)

- 50,000 100,000


- 0.5%

- 0.3%

- 10.4%

- 2.6%

- 4.5%

*2013 vs. 2012



Middle EastTop 5 airlines and Top 5 airports

Emirates

Qatar Airways

Etihad AirwaysSaudi Arabian

AirlinesEl Al

-

100,000,000,000

200,000,000,000


Dubai (DXB)

Doha (DOH)

Jeddah (JED)

Riyadh (RUH)

Abu Dhabi (AUH)

- 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000


Note: scheduled and non-scheduled servicesSource: ACI*2013 vs. 2012


- All airlines and airports of the Top 5 recorded positive growth rates (except Jeddah airport)

- Double digit growth for the Top 3 airlines: Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways

- The Top 5 airlines represents more than 80% of the RPK in Middle East

Emirates

Qatar Airways

Etihad AirwaysSaudi Arabian

AirlinesEl Al

-

100,000,000,000

200,000,000,000

+ 15.8%*

+ 11.0%

+ 19.0%

+ 7.4%

+ 3.5%

Dubai (DXB)

Doha (DOH)

Jeddah (JED)

Riyadh (RUH)

Abu Dhabi (AUH)

- 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000


+ 7.5%

+ 7.7%

- 2.3%

+ 5.1%

+ 11.2%

27


- Top 3 airlines: Only Chinese carriers - Each airport of the Top 5 recorded an increase - Beijing (PEK) Largest airport in Asia/Pacific : 40% more departures than the 2nd

2nd largest airport in the world

- Asia/Pacific : +7.7% RPK growth in 2013

Asia/Pacific Top 5 airlines and Top 5 airports


China Southern

Air China

China Eastern

Singapore Airlines

Cathay Pacific

-

75,000,000,000

150,000,000,000

+ 8.6%*

+ 8.6%

+ 11.3%

+ 2.6%

- 0.5%

Beijing (PEK)

Jakarta (CGK)

Hong Kong (HKG)

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000



Beijing (PEK)

Jakarta (CGK)

Hong Kong (HKG)

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


+ 1.9%

+ 3.1%

+ 4.7%

+ 5.7%

+ 5.7%

*2013 vs. 2012



Atlanta (ATL)

Chicago (ORD)

Los Angeles (LAX)

Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW)

Denver (DEN)

- 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000




United

Delta

American

Southwest

US Airways

- 0.5%

+ 2.0%

+ 1.6%

+ 4.9%

+ 6.0%

*2013 vs. 2012


North America Top 5 airlines and Top 5 airports

- Atlanta airport: 1st airport in the world (departures and passengers) // -2.1% departures growth

- United airlines: 1st airline in the world (RPK) // -0.5% RPK growth

- US Airways and American Airlines merged in December 2013

Atlanta (ATL)

Chicago (ORD)

Los Angeles (LAX)

Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW)

Denver (DEN)

- 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000


- 2.1%

+ 0.6%

- 0.3%

+ 4.3%

- 4.9%

29


- LAN Chile: -9% RPK growth 5th in 2013, 3rd in 2012

- Copa: +16.3% RPK growth received seven B737, network expansion (added frequencies and new destinations)

- Largest airport and strongest growth in the Top 5 airports: Mexico City (+5.0%)

Latin America and Caribbean Top 5 airlines and Top 5 airports

Mexico City (MEX)

Bogota (BOG)

São Paulo (GRU)

São Paulo (CGH)

Brasilia (BSB)

- 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000




TAM Airlines

GOL

Copa

Aeromexico

LAN Chile

-

40,000,000,000

80,000,000,000

*2013 vs. 2012


+ 0.9%*

+ 7.6%

+ 16.3%

+ 10.9%

- 9.0%

Mexico City (MEX)

Bogota (BOG)

São Paulo (GRU)

São Paulo (CGH)

Brasilia (BSB)

- 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000


+ 5.0%

+ 1.0%

+ 3.8%

- 1.8%

- 7.8%

30


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

LCC

Traffi

c Sh

are

by n

umbe

r of

Sea

ts

Asia/ Pacific

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

LCC

Traffi

c Sh

are

by n

umbe

r of

Sea

ts

Middle East

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

LCC

Traffi

c Sh

are

by n

umbe

r of

Sea

ts

Africa

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

LCC

Traffi

c Sh

are

by n

umbe

r of

Sea

ts

Europe

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

LCC

Traffi

c Sh

are

by n

umbe

r of

Sea

ts

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

LCC

Traffi

c Sh

are

by n

umbe

r of

Sea

ts

North Amer-ica

Low Cost Carriers in 2013

31Scheduled commercial traffic

Percentage of States served by LCC - 2004 vs 2013LCC Traffic Share by Region (intra-regional traffic)

Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Latin America/ Caribbean

Middle East

North America

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

22%

47%

79%69%

62%

100%

37%

84%94%

78%

100% 100%

2004 2013


+16 States

+7 States


+3 States

+5 States

+8 States

- Largest LCC presence: Europe (37%) and Latin America/Caribbean (31%)

- Strongest growth: Asia/Pacific and Middle East (+17 pts in 10 years)

- Smallest LCC presence: Africa

- All States in Middle East have LCC presence in 2013

- 94% of States have LCC traffic in Europe in 2013

- Asia/Pacific : +16 new States served by LCCs

Source: ICAO, OAG 31

2013

Note: distribution in terms of number of seats intra-region

Low Cost Carriers in 2013

LCCs 7%

Legacy car-riers 93%

LCCs in 2004 3%

LCCs 21%

Legacy carriers

79%

LCCs in 2004 4%

LCCs 40%Legacy

carriers 60%

LCCs in 2004 20%

LCCs 37%Legacy

carriers 63%

LCCs in 2004 26%

LCCs 18%

Legacy carriers

82%

LCCs in 2004 1%LCCs

31%Legacy carriers

69%

LCCs in 2004 24%

Scheduled commercial trafficTotal (international and domestic) servicesSource: ICAO, OAG 32

Long-term air traffic forecasts: “GATO”Scheduled passenger traffic

33Source: Cir 333, Global Air Transport Outlook to 2030 - GATO

Long-term air traffic forecasts: “GATO”Scheduled freight traffic

34Source: Cir 333, Global Air Transport Outlook to 2030 - GATO

35

The Monthly Monitor

• Published every month on ICAO website: http://www.icao.int/sustainability/Pages/AT-MonthlyMonitor.aspx

• Outlook and analysis of passenger and freight traffic

• Top 15 airports and airlines

• Evolution of the capacity by region

http://www.icao.int/sustainability/Pages/AT-MonthlyMonitor.aspx




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The statements made herein are based on the mentioned assumptions and are expressed in good faith. Where the supporting grounds for these statements are not shown, ICAO will be pleased to explain the basis thereof.

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