State fragility, governance, and the response to State fragility, governance, and the response to

EbolaEbola

Dr Walt KilroyDr Walt Kilroy

Institute for International Conflict Resolution and Institute for International Conflict Resolution and ReconstructionReconstruction

Dublin City UniversityDublin City University

walt.kilroy@dcu.ie walt.kilroy@dcu.ie @waltkilroy@waltkilroy

OutlineOutline

Governance and state fragility as a factor in how Governance and state fragility as a factor in how effective was response to Ebola in Sierra Leoneeffective was response to Ebola in Sierra Leone

Comparison with very effective response in Comparison with very effective response in NigeriaNigeria

What lessons can we learnWhat lessons can we learn Very early collection of thoughts – feedback Very early collection of thoughts – feedback

welcomewelcome

22

33

Where I’m coming from Don’t have any medical training Wasn’t involved in Ebola response Not from the countries affected

However have carried out research in SL and Liberia on post-war reconstruction/peacebuilding – specifically how the DDR programmes were run Governance and accountability arose, and especially

corruption Came up repeatedly, entirely unprompted, with very strong

feelings

ParellelsParellels

44

Looking at the enabling environment for the war, and at the process of peacebuilding/recovery, is inextricably linked to Governance and political will (not the same thing) State effectiveness Control and use of state resources/institutions Service delivery Social contract Social capital – norms, networks, and trust

PromptsPrompts

In reading and listening about Ebola, these are factors too – along with added issues of fear, denial, and need to respond quickly, holistically, and imaginatively

Prompted by comment from a friend from the region who was clearly angry about the slow response by his own government – “months before they issued a statement”

Prompted by hearing MSF warning in first half of last year how poor the response had been and how urgent the need was to prevent Ebola spreading

Prompted by very effective response in Nigeria (timing)

55

ContextContext

What I’m not saying Governance issues are unique to low-income countries That fear or denial are unknown outside W Africa That the response was all done by outsiders – huge price paid

by medical staff and community workers from the region

Ebola was as new to W Africa as it was to us Failings of WHO overshadow all of this and have been well

documented By making that clear, I hope we can have an open

discussion without our words being taken to stand for more than we actually mean

66

World Bank view of fragilityWorld Bank view of fragility

Fragility is where “states or institutions lack the capacity, accountability or legitimacy to mediate relations between citizen groups and between citizens and the state, making them vulnerable to violence.”

World Bank (2011), World Development Report: Conflict, Security and Development, p

xvi

“Thus, fragility and resilience are multidimensional categories that form a spectrum along which states and societies move, but in non-linear ways. Conflict and violence may feature in different ways along this spectrum.” (WB 2013, p 6)

77

OECD DACOECD DAC

Fragile states “have weak capacity to carry out basic functions of governing a population and its territory, and lack the ability to develop mutually constructive and reinforcing relations with society […] [thus] trust and mutual obligations between the state and its citizens have become weak”

OECD-DAC (2011), Supporting Statebuilding in Situations of Conflict and Fragility: Policy Guidance, p 21

88

Failed/Fragile State Index Fund for Peace  http://ffp.statesindex.org/ Like index or measure, it can be useful, if treated with caution Twelve indicators of equal weight

Social and economic Mounting Demographic Pressures Massive Movement of Refugees or Internally Displaced Persons Vengeance Seeking Group Grievance Chronic and Sustained Human Flight Uneven Economic Development Poverty, Sharp or Severe Economic Decline

Political and military Legitimacy of the State Progressive Deterioration of Public Services Violation of Human Rights and Rule of Law Security Apparatus Rise of Factionalized Elites Intervention of External Actors

99

The Fragile States Index in The Fragile States Index in 20142014

1010

Comparison with Nigeria

Credit to Dr Máire Connolly, School of Medicine in NUIG – DFAT seminar and follow up conversations

Nigerian outbreak One person travelled from Liberia Sense this was a nightmare situation, but in fact a very effective

response limited this Case often overlooked 19 cases, 800+ direct contacts, thousands of others People traced to Port Harcourt

Key: effective polio eradication network in place

1111

Polio mechanism adapted for Polio mechanism adapted for Ebola responseEbola response

Largely Nigerian health ministry staff Gates Foundation and CDC were also working with ministry Key tasks for polio matched those for Ebola

Identify cases Respond and isolate Follow up contacts Monitor

Effective network was in place: trained, financed, staffed Also good leadership WHO in Nigeria with dynamic team, boosted by Ebola

team from HQ as soon as initial cases were confirmed Advantage of learning from other countries in W Africa where delays had been

disastrous Ability for quick decision-making Generally greater capacity within health services that other W African countries

1212

Sierra Leone

Poorly resourced health systems Low staffing levels Delays in recognising Ebola Delays in notifying cases to Minister of Health Weak WHO office Poorly organised public health teams Weak governance and state capacity are factors, especially

with regard to timing Not the only factors: other low-income countries have dealt

with Ebola (DRC, Uganda) so international response is also a factor

1313

Some implicationsSome implications

There is a need to discuss these honestly and openly, in a culture of learning rather than simply of blame

Look again at governance and state fragility theories and adapt them to this situation – social accountability and service delivery are relevant

Adding temporal aspect: speed of information flows, decision-making, and follow through

1414

1515