State and Region 20 Demographic Trends

April 4th, 2012

1

Texas was one of the last states to fall into the recession due to strong

employment growth through much of 2008. Price of crude oil and natural

gas down from last summer has caused the energy industry to no longer

be an economic driver in the nations midsection.

WTI oil = $145 July 2008

WTI oil = $34 Feb. 2009

2

3

WTI oil = $106.72 March 2012

4

5

Growing States, 2000-2010

2000 Population*

2010 Population

Numerical Change

2000-2010

Percent Change

2000-2010

United States 281,424,602 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%

Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%

California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%

Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%

Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%

Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%

Virginia 7,078,515 8,001,024 922,509 13.0%

Washington 5,894,121 6,724,540 830,419 14.1%

Colorado 4,301,261 5,029,196 727,935 16.9%

Nevada 1,998,257 2,700,551 702,294 35.1%

Tennessee 5,689,283 6,346,105 656,822 11.5%

6

Region 20

7

Economic Conditions

• Texas gained 273,900 jobs between Feb. 2010 and Feb. 2011. Continuing to lead the nation in job growth.

• The state's unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 61 consecutive months.

• San Antonio 7th largest city in the country with 1,327,407.

• San Antonio Ranked 14th in the nation for single family permits in November of 2011

• Unemployment rates - Texas Labor Market Review (Feb)

- U.S. 8.7%

- Texas 7.2%

- San Antonio MSA 6.8%

- Austin MSA 6.1%

• Eagle Ford Shale big employment boom for San Antonio!

• National economic picture showing modest improvement ending 2011 with 1.6% Gross Domestic Product growth. Texas Domestic Product grew 2.4%

8

9

Economic Indicators

Source: Texas Comptroller

National Economic Overview Top Job Growth Markets Ranked by Change in Emp. – November 2011

Total Job %

Rank MSA Employment Gains Change

1 Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land TX 2,646,200 87,900 3.4%

2 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington TX 2,961,400 57,300 2.0%

3 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA 1,694,100 46,100 2.8%

4 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 1,741,000 33,400 2.0%

5 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach FL 2,230,200 30,200 1.4%

6 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CA 890,100 28,300 3.3%

7 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater FL 1,146,700 26,900 2.4%

8 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos CA 1,257,300 26,600 2.2%

9 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana CA 5,202,500 25,500 0.5%

10 Pittsburgh PA 1,164,400 23,400 2.1%

11 New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island NY-NJ-PA 8,441,300 22,800 0.3%

12 Detroit-Warren-Livonia MI 1,777,600 22,700 1.3%

13 Chicago-Naperville-Joliet IL-IN-WI 4,320,400 22,300 0.5%

14 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario CA 1,137,000 19,100 1.7%

15 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont CA 1,915,200 18,000 0.9%

Source: Metrostudy - MetroUSA

10

Rank MSA Permits Change

1 Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land TX 22,439 -121

2 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington TX 13,951 -745

3 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria DC-

VA-MD-WV

9,201 -129

4 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 7,315 -432

5 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta GA 6,255 -133

6 Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX 6,100 -43

7 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA 6,031 80

8 New York-Northern New Jersey-Long

Island NY-NJ-PA

5,931 -1,269

9 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington PA-NJ-

DE-MD

4,636 -497

10 Raleigh-Cary NC 4,561 -214

11 Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 4,516 -133

12 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 4,457 206

13 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater FL 4,377 0

14 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 4,328 -1,042

15 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana CA 4,241 383

Source: Metrostudy - MetroUSA

National Economic Overview Top 15 MSAs – Ranked

by Ann. SF Permits on November 2011

11

12

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Bexar County, Migration

Source: Internal Revenue Service Tax Stats

Eagle Ford Shale

• 8 Million Acres

• 200 Rig Count

• “Fracking”

• Road and Transportation Concerns

• Power Demands

• Water Demands – Fracking requires 14 Billion

gallons of water per year.

• Air Quality

• Housing Demands – Hotels/Motels

– RV Parks

– Rental Properties

Source: AACOG – Oil and Gas Meeting Eagle Ford Shale, Aug. 31, 2011

14

Corporate Headquarters in San Antonio

Company Business Employed in San

Antonio

USAA Financial Services and

Insurance

14,852

H-E-B Super Market Chain 14,588

Bill Miller Bar-B-Q Fast Food Chain 4,190

Cullen / Frost Bankers Financial Services 3,982

Valero Energy Oil Refinery & Gasoline

Mktg.

3,777

Southwest Research

Institute

Applied Research 3,300

Harland Clarke Check Printing 3,100

Clear Channel

Communications, Inc.

TV & Radio Stations,

Outdoor Ads

2,800

Cardell Cabinetry Custom Wood Cabinets 2,429

Rackspace IT Managed Hosting

Solutions

2,412

NuStar Energy Energy 1,600

Tesoro Oil Refiner & Petroleum

Products

800

Source: The San Antonio Business Journal and by contact with company

representatives.

San Antonio Major Employers

15

San Antonio Major Employers

Major Regional Employers in San Antonio

Company Business Employed in San Antonio

Lackland Air Force Base Military 37,097

Fort Sam Houston – U.S.

Army

Military 32,000

USAA Financial Services and

Insurance

14,832

H-E-B Super Market Chain 14,588

Northside I.S.D. School District 13,300

Randolph Air Force Base Military 11,068

North East I.S.D. School District 10,522

City of San Antonio City Government 9,145

San Antonio I.S.D. School District 7,581

Methodist Healthcare

System

Health Care Services 7,500

Source: The 2010 Book of Lists, The San Antonio Business Journal and by contact with

company representatives.

Texas ISD Enrollment Trends

2011 State enrollment = 4,998,579

2011 State enrollment growth = 64,962

16

4,326,742

4,399,019

4,519,164

4,592,849

4,671,493

4,749,571

4,847,844

4,933,6174,998,579

3,800,000

4,000,000

4,200,000

4,400,000

4,600,000

4,800,000

5,000,000

5,200,000

72,277

120,145

73,685

78,644

78,078

98,273

85,773

64,962

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

2006/07 2011/12 CHANGE PERCENT

13 323,090 385,526 62,436 20.0%

14 47,153 52,288 5,135 11.5%

6 156,966 174,707 17,741 11.5%

11 499,522 553,205 53,683 11.0%

1 373,247 412,862 39,615 10.9%

10 695,970 763,593 67,623 9.9%

4 1,014,545 1,105,601 91,056 9.1%

12 146,459 158,895 12,436 8.7%

16 79,540 85,832 6,292 8.0%

18 74,777 80,177 5,400 7.2%

20 382,365 408,591 26,226 7.0%

19 172,713 183,430 10,717 6.2%

17 78,296 81,848 3,552 4.5%

7 163,732 170,146 6,414 3.9%

3 53,289 53,305 16 0.0%

8 56,824 56,803 -21 0.0%

2 105,978 105,357 -621 -0.6%

5 80,840 80,331 -509 -0.6%

15 48,236 47,810 -426 -0.9%

9 39,307 38,272 -1,035 -2.6%

STATE 4,592,849 4,998,579 405,730 9.0%

5-YEARREGION

ENROLLMENT

DFW

Austin

Houston

17

San Antonio

Top 20 Region 20 Growth (5 Year)

18

• Region 20 enrollment

grew by 26,226 students.

• Region 20 total

enrollment fall 2011 =

408,591

Rank Name 2006-2011 Growth

1 NORTHSIDE ISD 15523

2 NORTH EAST ISD 6184

3 JUDSON ISD 2240

4 SOUTHWEST ISD 2001

5 JUBILEE ACADEMIC CENTER 1385

6 EAGLE PASS ISD 1135

7 EAST CENTRAL ISD 978

8 HARLANDALE ISD 799

9 GEORGE GERVIN ACADEMY 793

10 BOERNE ISD 565

11 MEDINA VALLEY ISD 451

12 HIGGS CARTER KING GIFTED & TALEN 420

13 SOMERSET ISD 308

14 LA VERNIA ISD 301

15 SOUTHSIDE ISD 284

16 ALAMO HEIGHTS ISD 259

17 JOHN H WOOD CHARTER SCHOOL 252

18 LACKLAND ISD 238

19 RADIANCE ACADEMY OF LEARNING 222

20 FT SAM HOUSTON ISD 216

Region 20 enrollment = 408,591

Region 20 – 2011 growth 4,430

19 Counties affected by Eagle Ford Shale

20

Region 20 growth 2006-2011

Five Year growth 26,226

21

San Antonio Market Apartment Market Summary

• San Antonio absorbed 962 apartments during 1Q12.

• Occupancy in San Antonio at 91% during 1Q12.

• Average rent in S.A. rose 2.8%.

• San Antonio added 900 units during 1Q12.

• S.A. areas with the highest occupancy rates:

- Thousand Oaks area 95.8%

- Hollywood Park area 94.8%

- Universal City 93.4%

- Downtown 93.2%

- Medical Center 92.9%

Source: MPF Research, Dallas

Morning News, January 5, 2012 22

Source: ALN Apartment Data, INC.

23

Source: Metrostudy

San Antonio Area Annual Closings

24

No Data

Remainder

Top 5

Rank Independent School

District

Annual

Closings

Vacant

Developed Lots

Future

Lots

1 Northside ISD 2606 6812 35721

2 North East ISD 835 1842 6345

3 Judson ISD 658 1654 9037

4 Boerne ISD 311 1095 8795

5 Southwest ISD 268 697 3082

6 Medina Valley ISD 144 307 13716

7 East Central ISD 141 1185 5663

8 South San Antonio ISD 47 214 343

9 Southside ISD 47 214 8963

10 Alamo Heights ISD 30 66 18

Top 10 Region 20 School Districts Ranked by Annual Closings

San Antonio Area Vacant Developed Lots

25

No Data

Remainder

Top 5

Rank Independent School

District

Annual

Closings

Vacant

Developed Lots

Future

Lots

1 Northside ISD 2606 6812 35721

2 North East ISD 835 1842 6345

3 Judson ISD 658 1654 9037

4 East Central ISD 141 1185 5663

5 Boerne ISD 311 1095 8795

6 Southwest ISD 268 697 3082

7 San Antonio ISD 15 310 2119

8 Medina Valley ISD 144 307 13716

9 Harlandale ISD 5 307 0

10 Southside ISD 47 214 8963

Top 10 Region 20 School Districts Ranked by VDL

San Antonio Area Future Lots

26

No Data

Remainder

Top 5

Rank Independent School

District

Annual

Closings

Vacant

Developed Lots

Future

Lots

1 Northside ISD 2606 6812 35721

2 Medina Valley ISD 144 307 13716

3 Judson ISD 658 1654 9037

4 Southside ISD 47 214 8963

5 Boerne ISD 311 1095 8795

6 North East ISD 835 1842 6345

7 East Central ISD 141 1185 5663

8 Southwest ISD 268 697 3082

9 San Antonio ISD 15 310 2119

10 South San Antonio ISD 47 214 343

Top 10 Region 20 School Districts Ranked by Future Lots

Summary

Positives

• Texas economy continues to out perform the nation.

• Eagle Ford Shale will be economic driver for a long time!!

• San Antonio area economy is diversified which lessened the impact of the recession.

• City of San Antonio– lowest unemployment rate city over million 6.8% (Dallas 7.1%, Houston 7.2%)

• Texas Annual Job Growth areas (Feb. 2011 – Feb. 2010): 273,900 nonagricultural

Professional and Business Services (57,700 jobs)

Mining (36,600 jobs) highest percentage growth 16.4% year over year.

Leisure and Hospitality (54,100 jobs) – (Texas Workforce Commission)

• Housing market should begin to improve later part of 2012 see continued growth in 2013.

Concerns

• Consumer confidence and job growth.

• Election should continue to push recovery.

• Water.

Region 20

• Region 20 will continue to experience rapid growth!

• Region 20 saw an increase of 4,430 students fall 2011.

• Region 20 five-year enrollment outlook 25,000 plus students!!

• District’s located in the Eagle Ford Shale will begin to see enrollment growth as more jobs are created to

support the mining.

• Diverse economy helping to keep San Antonio with a positive outlook.

27