stalemate in syria

7/31/2019 Stalemate in Syria

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APEX B U S I N E S S A N D M A N A G E M E N T C O N S U L T A N T S L T D

ARE THE SYRIAN

HECTOR C SIKAZWE, 20l2


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Stalemate in Syria

Who really are the SyrianRebels?

Hector C Sikazwe. 2012

Keywords

Syria, Iran Russia, UN, Kofi Annan, War, Rebels, Obama, Ahmadinejad, Lebanon, Israel,

Hezbollah, Hamas, Fatah, Turkey, Egypt, Libya, Free Syrian Army, Chemical weapons,

Biological weapons


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Abstract

Syria is at war. The war rages from within. The defragmentation of the Syrian society started

many years ago, long before President Assad Bashed knew how to tie his shoe laces. The

Assad family, which has ruled Syria since Bashars father, Hafez, took power in the so-called

Corrective Revolution of 1970, issues from the Alawite minority, which represents only

about 12% of Syrias 22.5 million inhabitants. Members of that formerly disadvantaged

Shiite sect have benefited greatly from the Assad regimes hold on power, occupying crucial

positions in Syrias army, economy and politics. The resentment from the rest of the other

tribes has simmered and is now tipping over. It is time for the oppressed people of Syria to

make their views known in the manner of the Arab revolution style. Encouragement has been

seen in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and to a great extent in Yemen where a populous uprising has

taken the ruling power out of power. But Syria is not Egypt, which was a friend of Israel, and

as such hated by its own largely Islamic society, nor did Libya, where infiltration from the

Western world through an inept Mohamed Gadhafis greedy family desires allow internal

fragmentation. Neither is Syria Tunisia where the prime Minister jumped before he was asked

to due to threats on his family political weaknesses. Syria is different. Syria is Russias darling,

and a strong Iranian surrogate. Syria is Iranian young brother who has learnt to run before can

walk. Syria is deadly and more powerful than the West would have wanted it to be. Syria

has chemical weapons. Syria cannot be overrun by a number of small boys throwing stones

with a promise that their stones will be replaced with hand-held grenades and shoulder held

rocket launchers if they prove that they are organized. Syria is too big to fall for the

greater peace of the Middle East. The western world are wondering how to organize these

small boys with diapers hanging around their knees on how they can pull their hanging

nappies higher and be able to stand against the towering might of the Assad Bashed might. The


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big question that has perplexed the Western world is the chilling realization that what

started as a Syrian simmering anger against the brutal Assad regime has become the daring

path for the Jihadist Islamic world movement, bringing along the remnants of Osama Bin

Laden fallen Al Qaida movement from Iraq, Afghanistan and Taliban Pakistan evil groups.

That is something President Obama feared would happen and former republican Ambassador

to the UN Bolton has cautioned arming the rebels as the devil you know is better than the

devil you know. Ambassador Bolton has shared his wisdom and his words probably ring in

Obamas ears every time he sits with his cabinet or war mongers like John McCain who are

trigger happy for another un-ending war like the Afghanistan one.

The United Kingdom does not have any such problems. They have openly gone ahead and

expressed support for the rebels and though William Haig, who is quick to influence war

opinion faster than he understands the global implication nor the economic impact his

decisions have on the UK economy that has suddenly dipped into a double deep recession

after the horrendous 2003 Tony Blair comedy of the Iraq dossier that resulted in the UN

being duped into the infamous Iraq invasion. The UK has never recovered from the shame

and needed the Libyan invasion to prove that they could redeem their image. Everything went

sour there as well as documents unearthed after the fall of Mohammad Gadhafi revealed the

deceptive role that the British government had played just before the Arab revolution.

William Haig has failed to explain to the media the case for arming the rebels he cannot

identify as being friends of the west. The Jihadists are having a field day whilst David

Cameron is laying eggs with the hope that some miraculous solution to the problem in Syria.

The British government hopes against hope that the rebels will somehow overthrow the

Syrian government and somehow make the midget in Iran, President Ahmadinejad will take

his foot off the neck of the rebels. Israel has played a very subdued role as they have watched

the rebels, probably infiltrated by the dreaded rebels from Palestine, Hamas and Fatah who


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have been locked in on-again off-again talks about forming a unity government and see this


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as opportunity to gain more grounds in their influence in the deplorable fight taking place in

Syria and a possible vacuum requiring filling as the regime tumbles. Israel is equally fid gety

about the Hezbollah resistance movement in Lebanon that receives military training,

weapons, and financial support from Iran, and political support from Syria. Following the end

of the Israeli occupation of Lebanon in 2000, its military strength has grown significantly and

it is no wonder Israel is flexing her muscles to ascertain and affirm her presence in the region

before it is overrun by events.


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1.0 Introduction

In a nutshell, the conflict in Syria would have been the ideal conclusion to the Arab spring

revolution had the various players known what the eventual outcome would have been. There

are too many unknowns, especially the question of who the rebels in Syria are. There are

accusations from the Syrian regime that these are Western backed thugs, funded by the

United States to unseat the government of the Syrian regime as a stepping stone to the never

ending Iran/Israel/USA conflict over the Iranian Nuclear arms programme. The Syrian

government has now changed the tome of their claim to the fact that the Western world has

been duped to believe that the rebels are a democratic movement when in actual fact it is a

Jihadist movement that is threatening to have a Taliban-type of government setup as soon as

the west has assisted them to overthrow the government. The western World do not have an

answer to the simple question of who the Free Syrian army are as there are too many

anomalies of what they would describe such a movement, what with all the Islamic

fundamentalist acts like suicide bombings, torture, beheadings and Sharia law type of

behaviors exhibited by the rebels. The question remains of who these groups are comprised

off. Is the world safe with these unknown quantity of rebels taking over a government that

has ruled the Syrian people with an Iron hand though instilling stability in the region?

Two weeks after former UN secretary-general Kofi Annan quit as mediator in frustration

with the failure of a four-month-old truce, military observers have no peace on the ground to

monitor, and UN officials have said the last of the few dozen remaining team members would

quit Damascus by August 24 2012. The reason put across by the UN peace team was that

Syria's government and rebels have chosen the path of war. The UN peacekeeping chief

ended its doomed monitoring mission to Damascus and the deadly deadlock persists among

world powers over how to contain the spreading conflict.


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The deputy UN peacekeeping chief Edmond Mulet said, It is clear that both sides have

chosen the path of war, open conflict, and the space for political dialogue and cessation of

hostilities and mediation is very, very reduced at this poin." It is apparent that the UN is

pointing out that the primary responsibility for stopping the violence rests with those on the

ground, particularly the Government. Incidentally, the Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar

Salehi stated that the West, especially the United States, was to blame for the failure of the

Syria peace plan worked out by Kofi Annan.1

He emphatically mentioned that the West and

some regional countries did not want Annan to succeed at any cost for selfish reasons.

It is ironical that at a time when fighting is raging around Syria's biggest city, Aleppo, and tit-

for-tat sectarian kidnappings have spread the Syrian conflict into fragile neighboring Lebanon,

Western powers and Russia remain resolutely at odds in the Security Council over the fate of

President Bashar al-Assad.

2.0 Impact on the World

The conflict in Syria is a test of everything the UN organization stands for and was setup in

1945. The United Nations must not fail that test. It is vital to understand that the people of

Syria and the world should have learned the lessons of Srebrenica. Due to the inability of the

United Nations to have a united front against what is happening in Syria, the people of Syria

feel let down and neglected by the international community. It is obvious that united

international pressure can make a difference. The Syrian people need action. Their

aspirations have been denied. Their suffering is profound, and the increasing militarization

promises only worse. The rebels, with nocturnal support by the CIA and daylight funding by

the British Government on one hand, and the flamboyant support of the Syrian government

by the Russian, Iranian and Chinese government on the other hand, Syria looks to become a

failed state in the next few years if neither warring side is going to overcome the other soon.

1http://news.yahoo.com/interfering-states-made-annan-fail-syria-iran-101641310.html
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2.1 Failed state threat

A Syrian failed state2 in the Middle East is the worst outcome that Israel, Jordan, Saudi

Arabia, Turkey, Lebanon and most of all, the United States of America would desire. The fear

of another Afghanistan, or post conflict/Saddam Hussein Iraq would soon become the

breeding ground for all sorts of Jihadists who thrive on confusion and lack of central

administrative control in any Country. Islamic fundamentalists are cherishing the pending

vacuum that can easily such in all sorts of undesirables ranging from Iranian backed

Hezbollah, Palestinian truant Hamas and Fatah to the unavoidable Iranian infiltration of the

Nation. The presence of jihadist fighters in Syria is a bad sign for the future; first for the

Syrian regime, second for Israel, and third for Syria's neighbors; Jordan, Turkey, Iraq and

Lebanon, and also Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf kingdoms.

By a definition, a Nation is deemed to be a failed State when a state loses control over its

borders and crossings. The best examples can be found in Somalia, Afghanistan and Iraq,

where all three countries were unable to impose any sort of control over their military

activities against the United States army or the national troops associated with them.

It is without doubt or prevarication that the Syrian state authority has lost control of the

main border crossing between Syria and Turkey, the Bab el-Hawa crossing, as well as losing

two other crossings on the Syria-Iraq borders, and it is looking likely that it will lose the

main crossing with Jordan which has been recently targeted several times by the military

opposition funded and supported by the western World. This support directly puts full blame

on external interference that has been promoted and exacerbated by the modern

communication equipment provided by the sympathetic Countries like the United Kingdom,

Arab Emirates and indirectly by the United Sates who are providing logistical and tactical

assistance to the rebels.

2http://www.abdelbariatwan.com/Syria%20a%20failed%20state.htm
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3.0 Facts on the ground

As the world watches, the French news agency reported that an extremist Islamist group is

currently controlling the Bab el-Hawa crossing, and that most of this group's fighters are not

Syrians, which suggests they are al-Qaeda-associated groups have infiltrated the

revolution, much to the chagrin of the western World. Reports from within Syria reports

that it is still unclear whether the Syrian regime has relinquished control over these crossings

due to the blows it has received from the military opposition, or whether it is a tactical

retreat. It is more likely that the regime was forced to give up these crossings, after it realized

that keeping them would cost the army too much human loss, to allow the regime to

concentrate on defending the country's main cities; the capital Damascus and the commercial

hub Aleppo after the Free Syrian Army (FSA) reached the heart of both cities.

3.1 Jihadists rampant in Syria

It is with no doubt that the Jihadist groups' control over the Syrian crossings with Turkey

and Iraq is not good news for those countries and their governments, as both have already

suffered from these groups over the past decade. They are well aware that if these groups are

currently busy with fighting the "infidel" regime in Syria, as the jihadists say, they will soon

take their jihad to the neighboring regimes once they eliminate Syria's Assad. The Jihadists

have a long term plan of eliminating all non-fundamentalists regimes in the Middle East and

if the vision is as being touted throughout the region, with support of the Western World,

then the war in the Middle East has just began and peace for Israel as far as the other planets

are from the Earth. Alarmingly, most of the arms shipped at the behest of Saudi Arabia and

Qatar to supply the Syrian rebel groups fighting the government of Bashar al-Assad are going

to hard-line Islamic jihadists, and not the more secular opposition groups that the West wants

to bolster, according to American officials and Middle Eastern diplomats. According to


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reliable reports presented to congress, the United States does not send arms directly to the

Syrian opposition. The US government provides intelligence and other support for shipments

of secondhand light weapons like rifles and grenades into Syria, mainly orchestrated from

Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Unfortunately, reports indicate that the shipments organized from

Qatar, in particular, are largely going to hard-line Islamists who are not particularly the

intended recipients of the weaponry shipments. This assessment of the arms came at a crucial

time for the President just in the closing weeks of the election campaign. Some US officials

have expressed concern on why hard-line Islamists have inadvertently received most of

the larger share of the arms shipped to the Syrian opposition through the shadowy

pipeline with roots in Qatar, and, to a lesser degree, Saudi Arabia. Frustration from the

USA government can be seen in many unofficial utterances in the US local press. The

major worry and concern is centering on the future of Syria should Mr. Assad be ousted

before a clearer appreciation of the identity of who the rebels are who might take over

Syria. The concern is that Jihadists are running rampant in Syria without the fear of

being identified.

3.2 Jihadists Future Plans

The BBC investigations indicate that these jihadists are committed to establishing an

Islamic state by violent means and are now openly started to be seen on the battlefield in

Syria. This new development has become a highly streamed topic on the jihadist online

forums much to the chagrin of the western allies who are already far too deep to pull back

as this might send a wrong signal to the Assad Government. There has been an attempt

by the Free Syrian army (FSA) to quell the fears in public proclamations but that has

done little to quench the growing agony of frustration and bewilderment of the anti-

Assad forces. The FSA is currently scrutinizing the jihadists in Syria very closely,

considering them "a real threat after the Assad regime falls," according to a senior FSA

officer. Colonel Ahmad Fahd al-Nimah, the head of the Military Revolutionary Council in


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Deraa, told the BBC: "Jihadists would pose a real threat in the next stage for our society

and our Arab and Western friends." The greatest fear of Israel, the USA and generally

the NATO allies is that Syria could erupt postAssad into a new conflict over control of

the country, in which the more hard-line Islamic groups would be the best armed. This

new fear is dependent largely on what is currently happening in the arms supply that has

been feeding the rebel groups in Syria. In several towns along the Turkey-Syria border,

rebel commanders can be found seeking weapons and meeting with shadowy

intermediaries, in a chaotic atmosphere where the true identities and affiliations of any

party can be extremely difficult to ascertain.

Some observers are ruling out the possibility that jihadist groups would attack Israel if they

succeed in establishing military bases in Syria. Those who believe this are counting on the

fact that these groups have never been involved in a confrontation against Israel. This theory

is partially correct, however, we must remember that al-Qaeda attacked a hotel full of Israeli

tourists in Kenya's Mombasa city. Al-Qaeda has also made a failed attempt to target Israeli

Airplanes, in addition to attacks against Israeli tourists in Egypt's Sharm el-Sheikh and the

serial bombings of Egyptian gas pipelines which carry supplies from Egypt to Israel.

During the Libyan uprising against Gaddafi's regime, the opposition was adamant that al-

Qaeda-linked groups had no role to play in the military struggle against Gaddafi's troops,

and accused anybody who tried to report this, or serving the interests of Gaddafi, but it was

later discovered that these groups were largely involved in the fights, and they still have a

strong presence in Libya especially in the southern region, where extremist Islamists have

founded an Islamist Emirate in Darna city.3 It is a warning to the Western Countries.

"The jihadists' ideology contradicts with what the FSA is fighting for," Col Nimah told the

BBC. The latter are fighting under the banner of democracy and a civil state rather than

sharia law that the Jihadist intends to establish post-Assad. Incidentally, the difference

between the Jihadist and the FSA in their modus operandi is reminiscent of the difference

3http://www.abdelbariatwan.com/Syria%20a%20failed%20state.htm
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between Iraqi resistance groups and jihadists during the American invasion in 2003. The

jihadists in Syria are using tactics that are closer to so-called "peace-time terrorism"tactics,

unlike the tactics the FSA uses, which are mainly open raids and clashes.

The BBC4 reported that increasingly the Jihadists have started to use Iraq-type ambushing

tactics 30% of the time. Alarmingly, they are now resorting to assassination in 23% of their

attacks. Some 16% of jihadists' attacks consisted of IEDs (improvised explosive devices) and

car bombs. Kidnapping and suicide bombs represented 8% and 7% respectively of these

attacks. This is not the way the western democracy would have wanted to effect change in the

war-ravaged Syrian nation. IEDs and kidnapping were very common in Iraq. It is notable

that all kidnaps committed by the groups end with the killing of the hostage, without seeking

any ransom for instance. This of course has made the USA to quickly move in and designate

the Syrian rebel group al-Nusrah5 Front as a terrorist organization and at the same time

formally recognizing Syrias Opposition Coalition (FSA) as representative of the Syrian

people. The Obama administration wants to send a clear message that while it supports

Syrias Opposition Coalition to lead Syrias democratic transition if or when the Assad regime

falls, there is no place for extremism in the countrys future.

In an exclusive interview with ABCs Barbara Walters, President Obama declared that while

the United States was ready to fully acknowledge the group of Syrias rebels as the legitimate

opposition to the Assad regime, groups with ties to al Qaeda like the al-Nurah front would

not be tolerated. This is a dilemma that the Obama administration faces at the moment as it is

entirely impossible to regulate who they deal with in the Syrian confusion as the various

factions of the rebel groups are inter-twinned and symbiotically fight against Assad. The

reasons advanced for this action was based on the reports that Since November 2011, al-

4http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19091400

5http://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/atlas_shrugs/2012/12/obama-officially-backs-jihadists-in-syria-slaughter-

of-alawite-village-follows.html
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Nusrah Fronthad claimed nearly 600 attacks, ranging from more than 40 suicide attacks to

small arms and improvised explosive device operations in major city centers,

indiscriminately killing civilians and soldiers without distinction. During these attacks

numerous innocent Syrians have been killed including children and women. Through these

attacks, al-Nusrah has sought to portray itself as part of the legitimate Syrian opposition

while it is, in fact, an attempt by AQI to hijack the struggles of the Syrian people for its own

malign purposes that are undemocratic and reminiscent of terrorist signatures.

4.0 Accusations

The Syrian rebels fighting to unseat President Bashar al-Assad face a growing list of

accusations that they have been involved with executions and torture. A video was posted

online two weeks ago showing the aftermath of the apparent executions of pro-al-Assad

militiamen during the rebels capture of an intelligence centre in Aleppo. The leadership of

the rebel army condemned and denied responsibility for the execution of regime loyalists in

the northern city of Aleppo.

Experts and officials say the strength and numbers of extremist groups in Syria like Jabhat-

Nusra6 have grown as the conflict has dragged on. Officially, Jabhat al-Nusra militants are an

independent, loyal only to their goal of establishing a caliphate ruled in accordance with

Sharia law. But on the ground they have often teamed up with the Free Syrian Army,

according to one of FRANCE 24s Observers, a local rebel commander. The group first

appeared in January 2012, vowing to fight against the Assad regime. Since then it has claimed

responsibility for some of the conflict's most deadly attacks, including bombings in Aleppo,

Deraa and Damascus that killed scores. A year ago, Jabhat al-Nusra carried out the first

suicide bombing and dozens have followed. Videos have surfaced online of the summary

executions they have carried out, notably several weeks ago when pleading Syrian soldiers

6http://www.france24.com/en/20121211-syria-jabhat-nusra-civil-war-observers-third-army
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were piled onto the floor and summarily shot. Administration officials did acknowledge they

are concerned about the increasing influence radical Islamists are having on Syrias

opposition movement.

4.1 War Crimes

The U.N. on Aug. 15 2 0 1 2 reported for the first time that both Syrian President Bashar

al-Assads forces and rebels7 had perpetrated war crimes, in a highly anticipated report that

spelled out clear responsibility for attacks on civilians and that could be used in possible

prosecutions against the leader and others. It also contained an ominous warning that

Syrias 17 -month- old civil war was moving in brutal directions on all fronts, as Assads

forces step up air assaults and anti-government armed groups seek stronger firepower to

fight back. The FSA code of conduct emphasizes a commitment to respect for human

rights and international humanitarian law, and pledges that the group will not practice

any form of torture, rape, mutilation, or degradation. The code dictates that Nations that

are at war must preserve prisoners rights and should not exercise any of the above practices

in order to obtain confessions. Bothe sides have been accused of violating human rights and

a repeat of Libya after the fall of Mohammed Gaddafi is seen to be developing slowly but

emphatically. United Nations investigators had already collected evidence of war crimes and

crimes against humanity by government and rebel forces in Syria that could support

prosecutions of those responsible by national or international tribunals.

Thousands of videos depicting violence and combat in Syria 8 have been posted on the

Internet since the conflict began, mostly by anti-government activists aiming to vilify the

behavior of the Syrian military and pro-government militia known as the shabiha9.

7http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2012/11/02/syria-rebel-warcrimes-video.html

8http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/world/middleeast/un-says-syria-execution-video-shows-apparent-war-

crime.html

9http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shabiha
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Unfortunately, many videos cannot be independently corroborated, and experts are cautious

about drawing conclusions from video that could have been digitally fabricated or altered.

During war, videos are among the few ways to obtain information and assess the course of the

conflict in a country where outside news media coverage is severely restricted and dangerous.

There are a lot of YouTube footage of weapons in the conflict, for example, that have revealed

the use of widely outlawed cluster bomb munitions dropped by the Syrian Air Force as well as

the emergence of smuggled shoulder-fired, heat-seeking missiles in the insurgent arsenals.

4.2 Factions amongst the FSA

One of the most unfortunate factors delaying the revolution to completely take effect is the

lack of unity among the rebels. Although many rebel units fight under the banner of the Free

Syrian Army, ( FS A) their commands are localized and poorly coordinated according to

observers on the ground. Not surprisingly, Syrias uprising has evolved into an all-out civil

war with sectarian overtones, pitting the mainly Sunni rebels against security forces

dominated by Assads minority Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shiite Islam. Assad is backed by

Shiite-led Iran and opposed by most Arab states, which are ruled by Sunnis. There has been

reported tension in the Kurdistan Region where clashes between the Salahaddin Ayubi brigade

of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and armed units of Peoples Defense Units (YPG) in Aleppo

last week signaled the threat of a possible Kurdish-Arab war.

Tensions also flared when the YPG, an arm of the Democratic Union Party (PYD) raided

bases in the Kurdish city of Kobane. Kurdish parties say the PYD violated the Erbil

Agreement10

by removing Syrian revolution flags in Kobane.

10http://www.kurdishglobe.net/display-article.html?id=3F557EB905A63A2F91E55D01777F0172
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Various issues have arisen that threaten unity amongst the rebels. For instance, the leader of

the Salahaddin Ayubi brigade criticized the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), and accused

them of carrying out the agenda of the Syrian regime" in reference to the YPG and PYD,

affiliates of the PKK.

As noted, Eid 2012 in Syria was bloody and violent. On the first day of Eid, in the Kurdish

neighborhood of Sheikh Maqsud in Aleppo, there were clashes between the FSA and YPG for

the first time. More than 30 people died on both sides. Malik Kurdi, a Kurdish leader in the

FSA, made a statement to Kurdinews a day after the clashes in Aleppo. He stated that some

Kurdish groups and the Salahuddin Ayubi brigade known as the Kurdish wing of the FSA

encouraged the FSA to enter the Kurdish neighborhood of Ashrafiyeh in Aleppo.

Middle East scholars do not see this uprising as being just about the fall of Assad. They

enthuse that this is about the Sunni Muslims of Syria taking back their country and pushing

out the minority that have been oppressing them for generations now.

4.3 Foreign fighters

The presence of foreign fighters is a sensitive issue for Syrias rebels. Assads government

has taken to referring to the rebels as Gulf-Turkish forces, accusing the Sunni-led Arab

Gulf states and Turkey of arming, funding and leading them to overthrow the government.

There are specific groups that currently running amok in the Country:

According to the rebels and independent observers, the Western governments are bringing

future calamity upon themselves by delaying responding militarily because there are

Jihadists that are practically moving and conversing on Syria as the Assads regime slowly

but surely crumbles under pressure. The rebel leaders pragmatically state that t he longer


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theyleave this door open for this torture and this massacre to carry on, the more young men

will drop what they have in this life and search for the afterlife, signifying suicide bomber

tactics that were observed after Saddam Hussein fail in Iraq. The rebels threaten that if the

West and other countries do not move fast, it will no longer be normal everyday but it will be

the real extreme guys who will take it to another level.

4.4 Safety of chemical weapons

On July 23, 2012 Syria admitted to possessing a stockpile of chemical weapons which it claims

are reserved for national defense against foreign countries. A Syrian government spokesman for

the foreign ministry indicated that it would use chemical and biological weapons if Syria was

attacked by foreign powers during the Syrian civil war. The same spokesman also said that

Syria would never use these weapons against Syrian citizens. In contradiction, the Syrian

military restarted chemical weapons testing at a base on the outskirts of Aleppo. It later

emerged that the Syrian military had restarted testing of chemical weapons at a base on the

outskirts of Aleppo in August 2012.

Chemical weapons are a major point of discussion between the Syrian government and world

leaders, with military intervention being considered by the West as a potential consequence of

the use of such weapons. Syria is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and has

repeatedly attempted to purchase small research type nuclear reactors from China, Russia,

Argentina, or other countries. Despite these purchases being openly disclosed and IAEA

monitored, international pressure has caused all these reactor purchases to be cancelled. Syria

has open and IAEA monitored nuclear research programs including a Chinese made non-reactor

miniature neutron source. The Western allies have grave concerns that Syria might be ready to

use chemical weapons on its own people or its neighbors, or that the weapons could fall into the

hands of a radical extremist group post Assad era. Russia on the other hand has continuously


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downplayed USA and Western allies fears that a desperate Assad could deploy chemical

weapons and pointedly tunneled concerns that the greatest danger was that part of Syrias

chemical arsenal could fall into the hands of rebels. Both U.S. and Israeli officials have also

voiced concern that chemical armaments could end up in the hands of insurgents, who have

overrun a number of military bases. Syrias fragmented rebel legions include hard -core Islamist

brigades hostile to the West and sympathetic to Al Qaeda, the Wests greatest terrorist enemy.

Rumors and speculation about whether Assad would use the chemical weapons have increased

as the regime has started crumbling from within. A former top general in Syria's chemical

weapons program11

says he doesn't doubt for a moment that President Bashar al-Assad will

deploy his chemical weapons arsenal as he tries to hold onto power and crush the uprising that

started almost two years ago. These kind of unconfirmed assertions are feared to be capable of

driving the western Countries to be propelled to act prematurely like what happened in Iraq in

2003 when the USA and the United Kingdom drummed up false information to oust Saddam

Hussein with the threat of Weapons of Mass destruction (WMD) at its core. Using unverified

sources for making decisions that might affect an entire region is immensely flawed and history

will judge the decision makers harshly in things were to spiral out of control in the Middle East.

5.0 Perceived consequences

As the World debates on what to do with the war in Syria, the fact remains that there is a war

going on in Syria, and that one side will win and one side will lose. There are two outcomes

that paradoxically are both unattractive

5.1 Assad remains in power

Though seemingly ugly, Assad remaining in power has its own advantages.

11http://abcnews.go.com/International/syrias-assad-chemical-weapons-general-now-

defector/story?id=17926963#.UM4MhG_ZZ8E
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(a) Assad is the only leader who can keep Syria intact and is a leader who has beenreforming since taking office. First, he is the only person in the Syrian political system

that seems able to run the country and to unite the people.

(b) His Sunni wife, his alliance with Sunni business circles in major metropolitan cities and,more importantly,

(c) the sizable Christian communities supporting him and not the opposition groups at leastgive him a huge advantageous when it comes to remaining in power.

(d) He is a symbol of stability in the region.(e) Unlike the Mubarak regime in Egypt, Assad has indeed been trying to reform his system.

It is a very slow process but the perception of people in Syria is positive toward Assad.

(f) More importantly, the Christian minority does not support the opposition groups, who area key group that would influence the Western public opinion.

(g) The greatest fear is that the period of transition in the Arab Spring countries has provedthat Islamists are coming to power, making the West nervous.

(h) Israel especially is very concerned with the election victory of the Muslim Brotherhood inEgypt. This means it is likely that Israel and the West will be hesitant about supporting

opposition groups in Syria.

With all the above reasons being advanced, the consequences of an Assad victory are dire to

the west and they are prevaricating on how to treat the post Assad era. Some fears the west

has are cemented in misty speculations and warranted fears as they include:

(i) They include a clear lesson to any other dictator faced with a popular uprising:kill enough people and you get to stay in power. The Arab Spring will be over.

Despots in places like Belarus and China will sleep easier.

(ii) Then there are the international dimensions. This war is not contained within


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Syrias borders. Iran is desperate for Assad to win, and is sending Revolutionary

Guards disguised as religious pilgrims to ensure that he does.

(iii) With Assad gone, Iran loses its most important ally in the Levant. Hezbollahloses a patron. Lebanon gets another chance to become an independent country.

(iv) There are risks to a rebel victory, too. Horrible revenge attacks against Alawitesthe minority sect to which Assad belongs are possible.

(v) There are credible reports that al-Qaeda fighters are within rebel ranks. And evenwithout them,

(vi) The world cannot be sure what a post-Assad Syria will look like. But we knowwhat

(vii) Syria under Assads thumb is like and its an ugly and tragic place

5.2 Assad out of power

The United States institute of peace12

have voiced out their position on post Assad era. They

assert that the Syrian revolution has taken a terrible toll. Tens of thousands of Syrians have been

killed and hundreds of thousands wounded. Millions have been forced from their homes. Urban

centers have been destroyed, villages bombed, and communities subjected to horrific brutality

at the hands of regime forces and Assads loyalist militias.

(a)There will be a serious ant-western Islamic state that does not support western values asthe fabric of Syrian society is observed to be fraying under the pressure of escalating

sectarian tensions. Washington and its allies are worried about the makeup of a new

regime but al-Nusra is deeply embedded in the insurgency.

(b)The militarization of the revolution and the proliferation of armed opposition units poselong term challenges for rule of law and security.

12http://www.usip.org/events/syria-after-assad-managing-the-challenges-transition
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(c)Damage to infrastructure and to the Syrian economy will require tens of billions ofdollars to repair.

(d)The Western diplomatic recognition and terrorist designation will aim to separate theseradical elements from the main body of the rebels. In all probability, though, they are

too embedded in the overall insurgency for this to be done.

(e)The rebels, with their clear paramilitary capabilities mean they will be well placed tohelp ensure that, if and when the Assad regime falls, the aftermath will be an unstable

and insecure Syria.

This s the Frankenstein that the western world has created and unfortunately, solutions will

remain elusive unless something happens dramatically to ease the stalemate as it stands today.

6.0 What should the world do?

As the news seeping out of a bitterly divided and blood soaked Syria grows more alarming by

the day, scholars as well as pundits, expatriates, and concerned citizens are asking what can

be done. A logical step, a vote from the United Nations Security Council calling for Syrian

leader Bashar al-Assads resignation, was quashed early last month by a veto from council

members Russia and China. It was reported in the Washington post that the United States

has a window to facilitate an orderly transition in Syria without deploying military force.

Paradoxically, the window is narrowing and the Obama administration would need to adjust

its political strategy to succeed. Diplomatically, the administration has focused on engaging

the U . N . Security Council and the Friends of Syria, a French-created group of 88

participating states, seven international organizations and one observer (the Vatican). This

initiative from the Security Council has remained in stalemate by Russian and Chinese

vetoes, and the Friends of Syria is too unwieldy to reach agreement on operational measures

that would change conditions on the ground.13

13http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/what -the-us-should-do-in-syria/2012/08/07/45e2913c-e023-

11e1-8fc5-a7dcf1fc161d_story.html
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While other pressures have been brought to bear, such as the United States firming up

sanctions first put in place in 2011, al-Assad shows no sign of backing down. 14 The rebels are

emboldened by the support that they are receiving from the USA and Britain with their allies

like Canada, Turkey, Jordan, Quetta, and Israel.

These decisions reflect the fact that Washington and its allies are becoming preoccupied with

a post-Assad era and the makeup of a successor regime. There is a growing perception that

the Assad regime is now coming under serious pressure for the first time in nearly two years

of conflict. A leading priority is to minimize or prevent any role for Islamist groups in the new

Syria, perhaps the main reason for designating the al-Nusra Frontas terrorist.

It is a predictable choice of action, but two factors on the ground make its impact anything

but straightforward.

It seems like the World has run out of options. There are some questions though that should

be answered by any Citizen of the World, whether a Christian or a Moslem:

(a)Should the UN, the Friends of Syria, the League of Arab States, or any single nationgo beyond verbal condemnation to intervene in Syria instead of the pathetic verbal

stands, sanctions, and empty threats that have been issued without being efficacious?

(b)Should the Security Council unanimously institute a no-fly zone in Syria like it did inLibya during the civil uprising after persuading the rebels to lay down their arms and

Syrian planes to be grounded?

(c) Do the al-Assad regimes recent actions against the people of Homs and Alepoamount to war crimes or crimes against humanity? Whats involved in pursuing these

charges in international court? What about the beheadings reported in international

newspapers about the cruel actions by the rebels? Do they equally amount to war

14http://www.bu.edu/today/2012/syria-what-can-or-should-the-world-do/
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crimes and should be followed up the international court of Justice?

(d)There is no doubt the government of President Bashar al-Assad carries theoverwhelming responsibility for the unfolding tragedy in Syria, the attempt to

militarily defeat the regime is the wrong strategy if the goals are reducing violence

and protecting innocent civilians.

(e)The best strategy for those who wish to avoid a protracted war in Syria is to bringRussia and Iran to the international diplomatic table. Russian and Iranian participation

are essential to a viable post-al-Assad transition; the alternative, a transitional plan

generated exclusively by the United States and its allies, can be accomplished only

through force.

(f) To date, external backers of the two sides have focused on arming their local proxiesrather than negotiating. Russia and Iran have reiterated their commitment to the Assad

government, both diplomatically and through direct support. Recent reports suggest

that the United States has doubled down on funding the rebels with a secret

presidential order authorizing military assistance (stopping short for now of actual

"lethal aid," which has been outsourced to Saudi Arabia and Qatar, in coordination

with Turkey).To insist on the military path without engaging Assad's backers, the

Iranian government is to condemn Syrian civilians to escalating violence in pursuit of

regime change.15

7.0 Conclusion

Conclusively, to facilitate transition, the United States should engage both Iran and Russia

through creative diplomacy. Iran's cooperation on Syria might be linked to the question of its

nuclear program, perhaps forestalling sanctions that have yet to come into effect.

15http://edition.cnn.com/2012/08/15/opinion/bali-rana-syria/index.html
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There will never be a resolution in Syria as long as Russia and China who have the power of

veto in the UN assembly are treated as though they are second class world players to the US

and British governments. Russia has military bases in Syria which they would not easily give

up to Western governments without putting up a fight. That means Russias strategic

interests must be addressed, such as preserving the Russian navy's current access to the

Mediterranean through Syrian ports. If the goal is to end the violence and transition to a

post-al-Assad Syria, this is the only credible option.

In resigning as special envoy to Syria, Kofi Annan drew attention to the urgent need for

diplomacy, not clandestine intervention. Unless this warning is heeded, Annan's likely

replacement, Lakhdar Brahimi, may find no other way out of a lengthy civil war of

devastating proportions, both for the Syrian people and for the Middle East as a whole. The

World is watching what the big powers are going to do with Syria. The idea is to shine the

torch on the clandestine activities of the big powers whilst they feign diplomacy and care for

the people of Syria. History will judge these Nations. The Syrians are waiting

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options_1_local-coordination-committees-andrew-tabler-syrian-

conflict?_s=PM:MIDDLEEAST

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stalemate in syria

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