STA220 L0601: PRACTICE OF STATISTICS

Introduction

WHAT IS STATISTICS?

•Study of the collection, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data (Wikipedia)

•Need quantitative data to use statistics … but lots of subjects/problems can be quantified.

•Examples: Environment; Medicine; International Law; political campaigns.

WHAT IS STATISTICS?Statistics is good for identifying patterns in population data (e.g. weather).

Two years ago Last year This year

WHAT STATISTICS ISN’T•Why do people choose to drink bottled water?• Ethnography is a qualitative research design aimed at exploring cultural phenomena.•By one-on-one interviews can learn about why people choose plastic over reusable

WHAT STATISTICS ISN’T•Researcher found that brand preferences carry over to water and people will argue over which brand of water is best.•This might be difficult to discover in a survey unless you asked a specific question.•Qualitative research can be used to formulate hypotheses that can be quantified.

WHAT STATISTICS ISN’T?• Training children to

recognize areas that might contain land mines around Thailand Cambodia border.

• Red Cross thought about using skull and crossbones but not recognized as a symbol of danger.

PREDICTION

• A turkey is fed for 1,000 days and every day seems to confirm that the farmer cares for the turkey (Taleb, The Black Swan).

• Every feeding produces data that a member of the human race is looking for its ‘best interests’.

• How much confidence should the turkey put in this data?

THIS COURSE•Teaches the basics of statistical analysis and reasoning• Is intended for students with Grade 12 math and one University course in physical/social/life sciences•3 lecture hours per week •No tutorial!

WHAT’S STA220 ABOUT?•At the end of this course, you will• Know how to apply many common

statistical methods• Know how to critique these statistical

methods• Have a sense of what statisticians do• Have an appreciation for how statistical

methods is applied to other fields

ADMINISTRATIVE STUFF• The course info.

Sheet has all the key administrative details.• The course will

use The UofT Learning Portal as it’s main website.

COURSEWORK OVERVIEWWeekly online quizzes 10% Sundays at 23:59 (except

the weeks of the term test)

Midterm #1 15% Wednesday October 21, 1600-1700

Midterm # 2 15% Wednesday, November 18, 1600-1700

In class problems 9% Last 20-30 minutes of Monday’s class most weeks

Research survey 1% within 1 week of enrolling

Final exam 50% Scheduled by A&S

INVERTED CLASSROOM

• Before lectures: watch lecture videos, complete in-video quizzes, and complete weekly quiz.•During lecture: participate in activities and exercises that apply what was introduced in videos and hand in in-class problems. • Solve more complex problems that combine topics.•Week 2 prep due by 23:59 Sunday, September 20.

VIDEO LECTURES AND NOTES

MUDDIEST POINT: PIAZZA

•Every week I want your opinion about difficult points in the course material.•These points can be posted in a weekly discussion forum hosted on Piazza.

MUDDIEST POINT: PIAZZA• If you see your question or like a classmates then simply upvote the question.• I will review top question(s) weekly.• Similar questions might appear on midterm and final test.

QUIZZES• By each Sunday at 23:59

you must complete the online quiz to receive credit• The quiz will cover material

in the videos to be watched that week• Multiple choice and true/

false questions • Number of questions vary

from week to week• Can take the quiz as many

times as you want, but each time you will get a different randomly generated quiz

IN-CLASS HAND-IN PROBLEMS• I will put a problem up during the last 20-30 minutes of Monday’s

class.

• At the end of class you will hand these into a TA.

• Your answers will be marked according to the following rubric:

0: not submitted or blank paper;

1: incorrect or correct answers with no rationale

2: incorrect or correct answer with  rationale. 

• We will not hand back your answers but we will post solutions.

PRACTICE PROBLEMSEach week practice problems will be posted.

Additional problems can be found in the two recommended textbooks.

STATISTICAL SOFTWARE• We will use the R statistical

software for statistical computing• You will need to know how

to interpret output from R.• You will not need to know

R commands. • If you want to know how to

do the analysis yourself using R then you can watch the optional R videos which show how to replicate the work done in the videos

PARTNERS• In-video quizzes may be done with a partner.•OK for weekly quizzes and in-class problems but all work must be your own.•You can pick your partners.•Get to know your neighbours.•Online discussion forum on Piazza - great for meeting people.

MIDTERM TESTS

•During lecture time•45 minutes• Location will be posted on the course webpage.•No partners for test!

FINAL EXAM

• Scheduled by faculty of Arts and Science •We can’t change it!•All exceptions must be handled through the Office of the Faculty Registrar : we can’t set a makeup test, we can’t waive it for you.

GETTING HELP•Don’t spin your wheels, ask for help!•Tons of office hours• Statistics Aid Centre in New College: Wetmore Hall 68A

WHAT TO DO BY 23:59 SUNDAY, SEPT. 20

•Read the course syllabus and course schedule.• Log in to the UofT Learning Portal to access the course webpage•Complete the week 1 lecture preparation and online quizzes.

• In Canada 701 people (18+) surveyed with a margin of error 3.7%

• In U.S. 1,002 people (18+) surveyed with a margin of error 3.5%

NEXT CLASS …

•Wednesday 4-5•The room location is HS610•Optional attendance• I will be there to answer any questions about the course content/flow (i.e. where to find stuff, what to do) …