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Land Concept and Capability Development“Army of Tomorrow” & Future Army 2040”

Presentation to Soldier Systems TRMVisioning & Requirements Workshop

16 June 2009

Lieutenant Colonel Ron BellDirectorate of Land Concepts and Designs

Soldier Systems TRMVisioning Workshop

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• Provide an overview of Land capability development• Describe Land Operations 2021• Introduce Future Army 2040

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Land Capability Development

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Chief of the Land StaffLGen Andrew Leslie

Assistant Chief of the Land StaffMGen Guy Thibault

Chief of Staff Land StrategyBGen Alain Tremblay

Army Training AuthorityMGen Marquis Hainse (Comd LFDTS)

Chief of Staff Land OperationsBGen Ian Poulter

RGp Army Council

Army Capability Development Board

Army Research Board

Army Training Council

Army Training and ProfessionalDevelopment Board

Army Management Board

Army Program Board

Chairmanship for each governance body representing the three lines of operation is established. However, due to their distinctive terms of reference, these bodies do not automatically report to the CLS through the APB. In fact, it is common practice that they report directly and independently to the RGp, ASPT or the AC as determined by the specific items under consideration. As each chairman is also a member of the APB, RGp, ASPT and AC, this is not considered to be a dysfunctional practice.

Army Strategic Planning Team

Capability Development

Training and Professional Development

ForceManagement

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• COS Land Strat will govern Land capability development from Conceive to Build.

ManageConceive Design Build

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Capability

Time+4 +10 years +25 years

Conceive the

Army of th

e Future

Inform

FS

E

Objective

BUILD

Tomorrow

Today

Future

Develop TowardsFuture Capabilities

CapabilityObjective

7

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Security Environment (FSE)

Characteristics• Irregular & protracted conflict • Highly agile & adaptive

adversaries • Complex trans-national and

asymmetric threats and challenges

• Homeland threats • Increase in CNA• Ops in complex terrain• COTS & novel tech• Greater integration of man

and machine• Declining labour pool

Implications• Mission command • Network enabled ops• JIMP environment• Focus on will and resolve • Adaptive strategies and

tactics • “Early” responder capability• Faster procurement cycles • Robust and redundant

networks and systems • AI & autonomous robotics• Competitive recruitment

strategies

Diverse Environment

Diverse Threat

Diverse Tasks

Canada First

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Peacetime Military Engagement

Major CombatPeace Support Counter-insurgency

Stability Operations

Defensive Operations

Offensive Operations

EFFORTS AND RESOURCES WILL EBB

AND FLOW ACROSS THE TACTICAL LEVEL

OPERATIONS AND VARY WITH THE CAMPAIGN

THEME

OPERATIONAL LEVEL

CAMPAIGN THEMES

TACTICAL LEVEL

ACTIVITIES

“Full-spectrum operations”

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CSASS

Command The operational function that integrates all the operational functions into a single comprehensive strategic, operational or tactical level concept. Sense The operational function that provides the commander with knowledge.  Act The operational function that integrates manoeuvre, firepower and offensive information operations to achieve the desired effects.  Shield The operational function that provides for the protection of a force's survivability and freedom of action.  Sustain The operational function that integrates strategic, operational and tactical levels of support to generate and maintain force capability.

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Personnel, Leadership and Individual Training• PD initiatives• Indiv Trg initiatives (SQ, PLQ) and plans• Army Succession Plan• Manning Priorities• Health and Welfare

Research & Development, and Operational Research• R&D Plans• DGOR Plan• Contracted studies

Concepts, Doctrine and Collective Training• Doctrine Writing Plan• Battle Task Standards• Collective Training Plan

Infrastructure, Environment and Organization• O&E Restructure Plan• Infrastructure Development Plan• Environmental Assessment

Information Management, and Technology• Information Systems• Information Architecture

Equipment and Support• Equipping Plans• Equipment Tables• Support Systems• Environment

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CFC2IS

LAV III

LAV TUA

LAV RWS

BISON C3I

LEO II ARV

EOSL (2035)

EOSL (2035)

Build 3 – Force 2021“Transform”

Build 1 – Force 2011“Position”

Build 2 – Force 2016“Align”

Army of Today Army of Tomorrow

Equipment Strategy

Deductions

ISTAR

LCSS

ISSP

C2 / Comd Sp Network

Leo ARV

Leo AEV

Leo I (C2)

Leo AVLB

Coyote

LUVW

APV - RG31

EOSL (2030)

ADATS (400 Series)

FIFC – Guns

105 C3

105 LG 1

81 Mor

LWTH (155 mm)

60 Mor

FIFC – CASW

AHSVSEOSL (2020)

Build 4 – Force 2026

EOSL (TBC)

LAND CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT PLAN – PART 2 – MATERIEL

TLAV (M113A3)

FIFC – Mortars

EOSL (2031)

EOSL (2035) or LE 2055

Funding

CF Demands/Pressures

TUA Missile

Sensor Suite Package

HLVW

MLVW

LSVW

BV 206

DivestedCougarGrizzlyM109ADATS (33 to 16)C1 105mm (less AVCON and Gun Salutes)

$

ALAWS

EOSL

EOSL (TBC)

MSVS

FFCV – CCVFIFC – CASW

In service

M72

ERYX

84 mm Carl Gustav

.50 Cal

SARP II

LCDP Version 071113

8

Establishment

Experimentation

Structure

FG Output

ISTAR (Indiv Sensors)

LCSS CR1 CFC4ISRLCSS CR2 and CR3 LCSS LE to 2016

EOSL (2020)1

EOSL (2015)

FFCV – CCV

Heavy

Light

Medium

Indirect Fire

Direct Fire

Svc SpCapability

Non-Strat (including simulation)

Coyote LE (2041)

3

4

7

EOSL (2011)2

10

1

5

5

9

9

14

11

6

2007

2007

2011

2011

2016

2016

2021

2021

2026

2026

Force 21 Equipment Objectives

• Balance (Medium & Light) • Modular platforms – family of

vehs• Full Spectrum operations

capable• Networked Enabled

• Modularized Protection• Enhanced Mobility

• Threat Detection Capability• Smaller Crew Size/Common

Functions• Robotics and Autonomous

systems

Army of Tomorrow

• Strategically Relevant• Combat Effective

• Multi Purpose• Knowledge based

• Mission Outcomes Centric• Medium Weight• Soldier-centric

• Adaptive & Agile• Network Enabled

• Achieves Integrated Effects• Affordable and Sustainable

• Balanced for a Comprehensive Approach

• Optimized for COIN• Technologically Relevant

Coyote LE or transition to new platform

Retain AVLB and AEV (Leo 1 chassis) until EOSL 2020 or divest sooner?

LAV III LE or transition fleet to FFCV Medium

LAV TUA divest or transition to FFCV Medium

Digitize LG1 and C3 105 Gun (Res F training integration)

AHSVS integration

TLAV to fulfill the role of CCV or pursue FFCV CCV

Mortar base plate or mounted version

Divest 60 mm and .50 cal, or retain

Divest or adopt into fleet

HLVW replacement decision

BV206 reset of MILCOT

ALAWS cancel or deliver

Requirement for LSVW replacement project

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

AD / CRAM Capability Gap

EOSL (2019)

EOSL (2022 with upgrades)

EOSL (2026)

CNR Modernization

LEO II (IOC)LEO II (FOC)

IOC

EOSL (2012)

Digitized 105 Trg Fleet

EOSL (2025)

EOSL (2010?)

EOSL (2017)

EOSL (2030) or LE 2055

EOSL (2030)

EOSL (2028)

EOSL (2028)

Frigate Replacement (20 Billion)

Arctic Offshore Patrol Ship (3.1 Billion)

Chinook (2.1 Billion) and Tactical Airlift (3.2 Billion) Joint Strike Fighter (10 Billion)

CF-177 (1.8 Billion)

Destroyer Replacement (7 Billion)

Joint Support Ship (2 Billion)

MHP (3.2 Billion)FWSAR (1.8 Billion)

FFCV – Medium

12

FIFC – Precision Rocket/Missiles

FFCV – Light Capability

FFCV – Medium

NVG/LAD

FFCV – Light Capability

FIFC – Guns

FIFC – Precision Rocket/Missiles

BV 206Arctic Capabilities

13

FFCV - FIFC (Guns, Precision Rocket/Missiles)

FFCV – Light Capability FIFC – Mortars

LOSV

LEGEND

Domestic Capabilities

FFCV Variants

FFCV Expedited Changes

Domestic Expedited Capabilities

Maintained by COS Land Strat / DLCD / SSO CD (LCol MB Boswell)

Campaign Horizons / Planning Methodology

Sustain

Act

Command

Sense

Shield

Generate

Horizon 1 Horizon 2 Horizon 3

EnhancedJoint

2013

FullyIntegrated

2028

FullyJoint

2018

2016

Army of Today

Army of Tomorrow

Future Army

2009 2021 2040

Land Ops 2021

Land Ops 2040

Land Concepts

The Army Strategy

2011

Focus of the Land Capability Development Plan

Land Capabilities

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Land Operations 2021

Adaptive Dispersed Operations

The Force Employment Concept for Canada’s Army of Tomorrow

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The Future Security

Environment 2007-2030

Part One

8 November 2007 - DRAFT

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Conflict results from a complex interaction of beliefs, actions and structures in periods of political, economic, and social instability. Resolution of this type of conflict requires an integrated, multi-dimensional approach that addresses actions, structures, and beliefs throughout the moral, physical and informational spheres.

Competing Beliefs

Unacceptable StructuresMoral

Physical

Informational

• Perceptions• Knowledge • Culture• History

• State Violence• Crime• Corruption• Repression

• Ineffective Authority • Military Occupation• Urbanization• Natural Resources• Poverty• Social Stratification

The Nature of Conflict in the FSE

Catalytic Actions

Command

Fusion & KM

Human Dimension

JIMP

The Network

Omni-Dimensional Shield

Focused Logistics

Joint Fires Support

IntegratedIntegratedEffectsEffects

TheTheSoldierSoldier

AgilityAgility SustainmentSustainment

Network Network EnabledEnabled

Full Spectrum Engageme

nt

Distributed Autonomous Systems

The AoT Battle Group

Adaptive, networked, and integrated forces alternatively dispersing and aggregating throughout the multi-dimensional battlespace in order to

find, fix, and strike full spectrum threats to security and stability

Functional Functional ConceptsConcepts

Operating Operating ConceptConcept

Enabling Enabling ConceptsConcepts

Manoeuvre Warfare Manoeuvre Warfare TheoryTheory

Effects Based Effects Based ThinkingThinkingpositional, psychological, temporal synergistic creation of effects

2. Network in Place & Operating

1. The AoT BG Arrives in AO

3. Manned/Unmanned Sensors Operating

4. JFS in Place & Operating5. Coys Disperse as Reqr

6. Pls Disperse as Reqr

7. Sects Disperse as Reqr8. Teams Disperse as Reqr

9. Sensors/teams ID & Locate Threats

10. Teams/JFS Conduct Full Spectrum Engagements

11. Teams/Sects, Pls, Coys Aggregate as Reqr

ADAPTIVE DISPERSED OPERATIONS

Moral

Physical

Informational

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What it Means . . . What Changes. . . • All-encompassing network • Enhanced soldier capability• Adaptive = agile (in capability development, in

force generation, and in force employment) • Dispersed in time, space and purpose (underpins

the comprehensive approach)• Balanced force:

– Flexibility / modularity– Enhanced precision, lethality, and protection– The requirement for mass (“boots-on-the-ground”)

remains

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Land Ops 2021:ADO

Designing The Army of Tomorrow

SYSTEMSSTRUCTURES

CONCEPTS

- Formation 2021- (Optimized) Battle

Group 2021

- Human Dimension- The Comprehensive

Approach

- Family of Land Combat Systems

P

ea

ce

Su

pp

ort

Ma

jor

Co

mb

at

Th

e O

pe

rati

on

al L

ev

el C

am

pa

ign

Th

em

es

Pe

ac

eti

me

Mil

ita

ry E

ng

ag

em

en

t

Adaptable

Flexible

Medium Weight

Off Def

Stability

Do

me

sti

c

Ra

ng

e

CO

IN

Off Def

Stability

Off Def

Stability

= combat operationsOff Def

LandForces

Linking Structure to Task

A medium weight, high tech force balanced for counter-insurgency

(COIN)-like scenarios in failed and failing states operating within a Joint / Interagency / Multinational / Public

environment, and capable of operating across the spectrum of

conflict.

Formation 2021 and Battle Group 2021

NCE

NSEMP

CSS

EW

What are the essential capabilities? What is the optimal division of responsibilities?

Coordination of national and multinational logistics, medical services and MPs

National and multinational units / BGs

Coord of national and multinational Arty & Engrs

Multinational command with complexities such as Int sharing and national ROE

Inter-operability of communications systems

Capacity building capabilities in conjunction with our partners (OMLT, PRT/CMTT, SAT, Police Trg)

Balancing “Fires” and “Influence Activities” (Information Operations)

What are the structures and and capabilities required to command & control, synchronize and resource the war winning and battle winning efforts in 2021?

24

Institutionalizing a Comprehensive Approach to Operations through study of the Joint Interagency Multinational Public (JIMP) Environment

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Future CombatVehicle Systems

(FCVS)

Future DirectFire Capability

(FDFC)

Future SoldierSystem(FSS)

AutonomousSystems

(AS)

Future AviationSystems

(FAS)

Future NetworkCapability

(FNC)

Future ServiceSupport System

(FSSS)

Future IndirectFire Capability

(FIFC)

The AoTFamily of Land

Combat Systems(FLCS)

Note: Some Land Force equipment or capability might not be captured by this model.

Projects that are within the

CFDS/FLCS envelope

LWTH funding already earmarked

CCV

LRPRS

TAPV

LAV III UG

TLAV UG

GBAMD

LVMP

Future Network Capability

Moral

Physical

Informational

SENSOR MIX STUDY

27

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Toward 2021

Attributes & Competencies

Ethics & Professionalism

Morale, Cohesion &

Trust

Decision Making Stress &

Resilience

Culture

Who do we need?

Who will we get?

And how do we keep

them?

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• End state — a balanced, medium weight, high tech force optimized for mid-intensity operations (i.e. that zone on the spectrum of conflict where combat and stability operations are roughly in equal measure), but effective across the entire spectrum of conflict.

• The AoT will demand:

– Mass.

– Agility/mobility.

– Integrated effects.

– An expanding network.

– The institution embrace the comprehensive approach to operations.

– Investment in enhanced command and control structures and new war winning capabilities at the JIMP-enabled formation level, with more focus on information operations and influence activities.

• Greatest challenge:

The attraction, development and retention of sufficient soldiers with the right skill set to be effective in the future security environment, ever mindful of the characteristics and culture of generation Y.

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• Command• Sense• Act

• Shield• Sustain• Integrated Land Analysis

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Future Army 2040

FUTURE ARMY 2040

FIRST LOOK

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The Future Security

Environment 2007-2030

Part One

8 November 2007 - DRAFT

FUTURE ARMY 2040

FIRST LOOK

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Physical Environment

Science

Technology

Economic

Social

Military

Legal

Political

Land Forces Context

The way we see it…

The future is not something that just happens ... it is something we do, by the choices we make or avoid.

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FA 2040

Economic

Legal

Science and Technology

Small TechMolecular

Manufacturing

Human Rights

Social

Human Enhancement

Political Environment

Military

Increase havehave not's

Increase rate ofproduction

Shorter Eqpt Lifecycle

?

?

?

Futures Wheel End Product

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1. Impact of age & demographics on military composition

2. Energy security

3. Exponential technology growth

4. Human / social response to technology

5. Expansion of operating environments

6. Global environmental change

7. Globalization

8. Conflicting / shifting identities

9. Shifting power balance

10. Resource security

11. Distribution of wealth

12. Weapons proliferation

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Imp

act

UncertaintyLow Moderate High

Low

Mod

High

1

2

3

4

5 6

7

8

9 10

11 12

Environment

Energy

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1. Impact of age & demographics on military composition – Older vs.

younger through immigration

2. Energy security – Sustainable vs. unsustainable

3. Exponential technology growth – Set the pace vs. fall behind

4. Human / social response to technology – Reject technology vs. embrace

technology

5. Expansion of operating environments – Defensive capability vs.

exploitation

6. Global environmental change – Crisis reaction vs. proactive action

7. Globalization – Acceleration vs. deceleration

8. Conflicting / shifting identities – Global community vs. fragmentation

9. Shifting power balance – Cooperative / less friction vs. competitive /

more friction

10. Resource security – Sustainable supply vs. unsustainable supply

11. Distribution of wealth – Uneven vs. even

12. Weapons proliferation – Disarmament vs. proliferation

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(Energy & Environment)

Ene

rgy

Environment / Climate

Sustainable – Supply exceeds demand

Unsustainable – Demand exceeds supply

Cris

is R

eact

ion

Proactive A

ction

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Exp

onen

tial t

echn

olog

y gr

owth

Shifting power balance

Set the pace

Fall behind

Com

petit

ive

– m

ore

fric

tion C

ooperative – less frictionAlternate Future Space

(Power Balance & Exponential Tech Growth)

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Next Steps

• Scenarios

– To include the scenario for a “Zefra II-like” fictional

account

• Gap analysis

– Use back-casting to look at how we get from today

to the future

• Shocks, strategic discontinuities and wildcards

– Handled separately

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We do not know what will happen in the future.

Capability development is, therefore, about trying to hit the centre of mass of the most likely future target while, above all, maintaining:

FLEXIBILITY within our force;

the necessary ADAPTABILITY to modify our force; and

the institutional AGILITY to quickly change our force.

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Questions/Discussion

“I am tempted to declare dogmatically that whatever doctrine the Armed Forces are working on now, they have got it wrong. I am also tempted to declare that it does not matter that they got it wrong. What does matter is their capacity to get it right quickly when the moment arrives.”

Sir Michael Howard, 1974