sr. historical p/nav (5% fwd. curve gold) · 2020-03-24 · canaccord genuity is the global capital...

Canaccord Genuity is the global capital markets group of Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. (CF : TSX)

The recommendations and opinions expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal, independent and objective

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For the purposes of UK regulation, this is non-independent research and a marketing communication under the Market Abuse Regulation

and the FCA Conduct of Business rules.

Global Equity Research

20 March 2020

Daily Gold Update

Canaccord Genuity Corp. (Canada)

Carey MacRury | Analyst

[email protected] 1.416.867.61300

Kevin MacKenzie | Analyst


Dalton Baretto | Analyst


Tom Gallo | Analyst


Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Ltd.

Reg Spencer | Analyst

[email protected] +61.2.9263.2701

Tim McCormack | Analyst


Larry Hill | Analyst


Market Highlights

Spot Gold closed down $15.30 (-1.03%) to $1,471/oz and is trading near $1,503/oz at

present

Spot Silver closed up $0.12 (1.00%) to $12.10/oz and is trading near $12.65/oz at present

S&P/TSX Global Gold index closed up 7.09 basis points (3.21%) to 227.86

Total Gold ETF holdings increased by 80.88 tonnes to 2,747.5 tonnes (from 2,666.7

tonnes)

Figure 1: Sr./Int. Historic P/NAV vs gold prices

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

$1,400

$1,500

$1,600

$1,700

$1,800

$1,900

$2,000

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

Spo

t G

old

(U

S$/o

z)

P/N

AV

Mu

ltip

leSr. Historical P/NAV (5% Fwd. Curve Gold)

Senior P/NAV Multiple P/NAV Average Gold Price

P/NAV Average

Source: FactSet, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Canaccord Genuity Estimates

Figure 2: Market Summary

Price Dai ly Price Dai ly

Change Return High Low Avg Change Return High Low Avg

Gold Spot (US$/oz) $1,471 -1.0% -3.1% $1,680 $1,471 $1,581 TSX Global Gold 228 3.2% -12.8% 288 201 259

Silver Spot (US$/oz) $12.10 1.0% -32.2% $18.65 $11.98 $17.30 TSX Global Mining 60 3.2% -26.8% 83 58 77

Copper Spot (US$/lb) $2.19 1.6% -21.9% $2.87 $2.15 $2.61 HUI 177 2.5% -27.0% 253 164 227

Platinum Spot (US$/oz) $596 -1.4% -38.7% $1,020 $596 $925 GDX 21 8.1% -27.4% 31 19 28

Palladium Spot (US$/oz) $1,560 7.6% -18.3% $2,745 $1,450 $2,229 GDXJ 26 3.9% -38.9% 45 22 39

WTI Crude (US$/brl) $25.22 23.8% -58.8% $63.27 $20.37 $49.46

Total Gold ETF (tonnes) 2,748 3.0% 8.4% 2,748 2,520 2,597 TSX Composite 12,171 3.8% -28.7% 17,944 11,721 16,682

Total Silver ETF (tonnes) 19,301 -0.9% 2.3% 19,301 18,599 18,924 TSX Venture 354 4.4% -38.8% 588 339 540

Net Long Gold (000s) 344 n/a n/a 389 311 352 S&P 500 2,409 0.5% -25.4% 3,386 2,386 3,143

DJIA 20,087 0.9% -29.6% 29,551 19,899 27,397

US$/C$ $1.45 0.0% 11.6% $1.45 $1.30 $1.33 US$/BRL 5.10 -0.2% 26.8% 5.11 4.02 4.38

EURO/US$ 1.07 -2.0% -4.7% 1.14 1.07 1.10 US$/CLP 862 -0.7% 16.6% 868 739 799

US$/JPY 111 2.5% 1.9% 112 102 109 US$/RAND 17.47 2.2% 24.7% 17.47 14.01 15.07

US$/CNY 7.11 0.9% 2.1% 7.11 6.86 6.97 US$/MXN 24.04 1.4% 27.1% 24.04 18.54 19.47

AUD/US$ $0.57 -0.5% -18.2% $0.70 $0.57 $0.67 USDX (DXY) $102.76 1.6% 6.6% $102.76 $94.90 $98.02

2020 2020

Forex

ETFs

North American Min ing IndicesCommodit ies

North American Equ ity Markets

19-Mar-20 20-Mar-20

Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates

Periodical

For important information, please see the Important Disclosures beginning on page 19 of this document.

mailto:[email protected]



mailto:rspencer@cgf



Figure 3: Recommendations and Targets

Prices close date:

Company Ticker P/NAVEV/

EBITDAP/CF

Sust

FCF

Y ield

Sust

FCF

Margin

ND/

EBITDA

($/sh) (US$mm) (US$mm) ($/sh) (%) (%) (x ) (x ) (x ) (%) (%) (x ) 1 day 1 wk 1 mo 3 mo 6 mo 12 YTD

ROYALTY

Franco-Nevada FNV-TSX C$150.27 $21,750 $19,185 BUY C$155.00 0.9% 4% 2.42x 27.1x 29.8x 3.4% 75% -0.7x 0.1% 13.7% -3% 17% 22% 49% 12% CM

Wheaton Precious Metals WPM-TSX C$36.16 $12,465 $11,632 BUY C$50.00 1.7% 40% 1.80x 21.4x 21.6x 4.6% 62% 0.8x -3.1% -2.9% -15% -2% 0% 19% -6% CM

Royal Gold RGLD-NASDAQ US$74.41 $4,879 $4,785 HOLD US$120.00 1.5% 63% 1.39x 12.1x 14.1x 7.1% 66% -0.2x 6.4% -4.1% -23% -29% -35% -10% -32% CM

Osisko Gold Royalties OR-TSX C$10.12 $1,154 $1,203 BUY C$16.00 2.6% 61% 0.80x 13.3x 13.5x 8.2% 68% 1.2x 2.2% 18.9% -28% -15% -37% -34% -20% CM

Sandstorm Gold SSL-TSX C$7.29 $1,065 $950 BUY C$10.50 0.0% 44% 0.86x 14.6x 14.5x 6.9% 67% -0.1x 5.7% 23.1% -24% -19% -5% -2% -25% CM

AVERAGE 42% 1.45x 17.7x 18.7x 6.0% 67% 0.2x 2.2% 9.8% -19% -10% -11% 4% -14%

SENIOR PRODUCERS

Newmont* NEM-NYSE US$41.74 $33,793 $35,128 BUY US$56.00 2.2% 36% 0.97x 7.6x 9.1x 7.8% 25% 0.3x -0.1% -2.1% -1% 12% 15% 36% 7% CM

Barrick Gold ABX-TSX C$23.34 $31,900 $29,818 HOLD C$28.00 1.6% 22% 0.90x 7.5x 9.8x 6.2% 21% 0.3x 4.0% 0.2% -16% 0% -4% 36% -3% CM

Agnico Eagle Mines AEM-TSX C$57.07 $10,587 $10,885 BUY C$82.00 1.6% 45% 0.97x 8.5x 10.1x 5.4% 18% 1.1x 10.0% -2.8% -13% -26% -25% -1% -29% CM

Kirkland Lake Gold KL-TSX C$39.32 $8,531 $6,469 HOLD C$53.00 1.7% 36% 0.96x 4.7x 6.3x 10.3% 36% -0.9x 17.0% 13.6% -21% -28% -37% -10% -31% CM

Kinross K-TSX C$5.75 $5,588 $6,086 BUY C$9.25 0.0% 61% 0.59x 4.0x 3.9x 14.1% 20% 0.7x -2.7% 1.2% -22% 2% -14% 30% -7% CM

Yamana Gold YRI-TSX C$4.27 $3,108 $3,496 BUY C$6.50 1.5% 54% 0.82x 5.3x 5.1x 7.8% 16% 1.0x -0.2% -3.0% -27% -10% -5% 26% -17% CM

B2Gold BTO-TSX C$4.37 $3,476 $2,967 BUY C$7.50 1.2% 73% 0.71x 3.9x 5.5x 11.8% 29% -0.2x 9.0% 2.1% -27% -9% -2% 16% -16% CM

Pan American Silver Corp PAAS-TSX US$13.29 $2,786 $2,802 BUY US$26.00 1.5% 97% 1.07x 6.6x 7.4x 5.0% 9% 0.0x 4.7% -16.2% -41% -33% -13% 12% -37% DB

AVERAGE 53% 0.87x 6.0x 7.1x 8.6% 22% 0.3x 5.2% -0.9% -21% -11% -11% 18% -17%

INTERMEDIATE/JUNIOR PRODUCERS

Alamos Gold AGI-TSX C$7.82 $2,306 $2,043 BUY C$11.50 0.7% 48% 0.69x 7.1x 8.7x 7.4% 24% -0.3x 7.3% 17.4% -10% 12% -8% 17% 0% DB

Centerra Gold CG-TSX C$8.33 $1,853 $1,572 BUY C$12.00 0.0% 44% 0.75x 2.4x 2.9x 26.9% 31% -0.2x 2.7% 11.2% -19% -14% -23% 18% -19% DB

Pretium Resources PVG-TSX C$9.35 $1,331 $1,498 SPEC BUY C$11.00 0.0% 18% 0.91x 6.3x 5.1x 17.3% 40% 1.3x 3.0% 15.4% -4% -31% -40% -17% -35% KM

Hecla Mining Company HL-NYSE US$1.78 $895 $1,326 HOLD US$3.00 0.6% 69% 2.00x 11.6x 8.0x -0.2% (0%) 3.8x 10.0% 9.8% -41% -35% 3% -19% -41% DB

SSR Mining SSRM-TSX C$17.42 $1,624 $1,177 BUY C$26.00 0.0% 49% 1.10x 5.2x 7.0x 8.1% 20% -1.3x 5.6% 3.4% -30% -21% -10% 3% -30% DB

Eldorado Gold ELD-TSX C$8.01 $991 $1,111 HOLD C$13.50 0.0% 69% 0.44x 2.8x 3.0x 19.5% 20% 0.5x 3.5% -11.4% -20% -15% -27% 33% -23% CM

Coeur Mining, Inc. CDE-NYSE US$3.22 $778 $1,118 BUY US$5.00 0.0% 55% 3.91x 11.9x 11.0x -13.8% (17%) 3.6x 11.3% 21.2% -44% -51% -30% -25% -56% DB

Teranga Gold TGZ-TSX C$5.39 $692 $920 BUY C$12.00 0.0% 123% 0.47x 5.2x 6.0x 6.4% 8% 1.7x 4.7% -3.8% -35% -13% 1% 27% -23% CM

New Gold NGD-TSX C$0.82 $418 $794 BUY C$1.50 0.0% 83% 0.87x 3.0x 1.9x -0.9% (1%) 1.5x -2.4% 6.5% -21% -21% -49% -28% -29% DB

Torex Gold TXG-TSX C$14.27 $926 $680 BUY C$23.50 0.0% 65% 0.62x 1.9x 3.3x 20.0% 25% -0.5x 5.1% 6.0% -31% -24% -19% -19% -30% KM

IAMGOLD IMG-TSX C$3.17 $1,135 $660 HOLD C$4.50 0.0% 42% 0.38x 2.0x 4.0x 3.7% 3% -1.1x 3.3% 12.4% -24% -28% -34% -32% -35% CM

Wesdome Mines WDO-TSX C$6.82 $747 $608 BUY C$11.50 0.0% 69% 0.57x 7.7x 9.0x 8.0% 35% -0.7x -4.9% -13.0% -32% -27% 14% 56% -33% TG

Fortuna Silver Mines FVI-TSX C$3.66 $445 $523 BUY C$6.50 0.0% 78% 1.35x 7.6x 6.8x 6.5% 11% 1.7x 14.4% 28.9% -27% -18% -20% -25% -31% DB

Dundee Precious Metals DPM-TSX C$4.27 $581 $444 BUY C$7.50 0.0% 76% 0.57x 2.3x 3.9x 18.1% 18% -0.5x 4.1% -7.2% -24% -25% -7% -8% -23% DB

K92 Mining KNT-TSX C$2.37 $399 $275 BUY C$5.00 0.0% 111% 0.30x 3.5x 6.2x 11.4% 22% -0.8x 7.7% -12.9% -46% -4% 23% 69% -18% TG

TMAC Resources TMR-TSX C$0.61 $56 $135 SPEC BUY C$2.00 0.0% 228% 0.09x 1.5x 0.6x 77.9% 20% 0.9x 13.0% 5.2% -74% -81% -87% -87% -84% TG

Argonaut Gold AR-TSX C$1.08 $147 $127 BUY C$2.50 0.0% 131% 0.29x 2.5x 3.0x 18.5% 10% -0.2x -3.6% 4.9% -33% -38% -52% -37% -45% TG

Calibre Mining CXB-TSX C$0.54 $156 $98 BUY C$1.70 0.0% 215% 0.21x 1.2x 2.3x 21.0% 13% -0.5x -5.3% -18.2% -38% -41% 4% 8% -43% TG

Premier Gold PG-TSX C$1.10 $188 $54 BUY C$3.50 0.0% 218% 0.14x 1.8x 12.3x 0.9% 1% -3.6x -3.5% 4.8% -27% -44% -45% -36% -44% TG

AVERAGE 94% 0.83x 4.6x 5.5x 13.5% 15% 0.3x 4.0% 4.3% -30% -27% -21% -5% -34%

PRODUCER AVERAGE 82% 0.84x 5.0x 6.0x 12.0% 17% 0.3x 4.4% 2.7% -28% -23% -18% 2% -29%

COMMODITIES/INDICIES

Gold (US$/oz) $1,471 -1.0% -3.8% (9%) (1%) (2%) 13% (3%)

Silver (US$/oz) $12.10 1.0% -17.7% (34%) (29%) (32%) (21%) (32%)

Copper (US$/lb) $2.19 1.6% -11.3% (16%) (23%) (16%) (25%) (22%)

TSX Global Gold Index 228 3.2% 2.2% (17%) (8%) (8%) 19% (13%)

Analyst

2020 Key Metrics on Current Fwd Curve

Target

Price

Dividend

Y ield

Total

Implied

Return

Share price performance*

19-Mar-20

Price Mkt capEnterprise

ValueRating

Source: FactSet, Canaccord Genuity estimates; R = Restricted

Daily Gold UpdatePeriodical

20 March 2020 2

Figure 4: P/NAV

Pr i ces Cl ose Date :

NAV at 5% di scount rate

Company Adj . NAV P/NAV Adj . NAV P/NAVDel ta

NAV

(C$/sh) (US$/sh) (US$/sh) (x ) (US$/sh) (x ) (%)

ROYALTY

Franco-Nevada $150.27 $103.89 $49.28 2.18x $44.56 2.42x (10%)

Wheaton Precious Metals $36.16 $25.00 $17.74 1.39x $13.40 1.80x (24%)

Royal Gold $107.63 $74.41 $59.03 1.25x $52.95 1.39x (10%)

Osisko Gold Royalties $10.12 $7.00 $9.17 0.78x $8.94 0.80x (3%)

Sandstorm Gold $7.29 $5.04 $6.23 0.80x $5.80 0.86x (7%)

AVERAGE 1.28x 1.45x (11%)

SENIOR PRODUCERS

Newmont* $60.37 $41.74 $47.08 0.89x $43.25 0.97x (8%)

Barrick Gold $23.34 $16.14 $19.27 0.84x $17.98 0.90x (7%)

Agnico Eagle Mines $57.07 $39.46 $42.62 0.93x $40.72 0.97x (4%)

Kirkland Lake Gold $39.32 $27.18 $30.17 0.89x $28.07 0.96x (7%)

Kinross $5.75 $3.98 $8.51 0.51x $7.45 0.59x (12%)

Yamana Gold $4.27 $2.95 $4.39 0.72x $3.83 0.82x (13%)

B2Gold $4.37 $3.02 $4.61 0.64x $4.24 0.71x (8%)

Pan American Silver Corp $19.22 $13.29 $19.14 0.71x $12.39 1.07x (35%)

AVERAGE 0.77x 0.87x (12%)


Alamos Gold $7.82 $5.41 $8.27 0.62x $7.44 0.69x (10%)

Centerra Gold $8.33 $5.76 $9.04 0.65x $7.84 0.75x (13%)

Pretium Resources $9.35 $6.46 $8.48 0.80x $7.23 0.91x (15%)

Hecla Mining Company $2.57 $1.78 $1.49 1.08x ($0.25) 2.00x (116%)

SSR Mining $17.42 $12.04 $13.60 0.89x $10.86 1.10x (20%)

Eldorado Gold $8.01 $5.54 $15.36 0.40x $13.88 0.44x (10%)

Coeur Mining, Inc. $4.66 $3.22 $2.60 1.13x ($1.20) 3.91x (146%)

Teranga Gold $5.39 $3.73 $11.97 0.42x $10.71 0.47x (11%)

New Gold $0.82 $0.57 $1.07 0.78x $0.83 0.87x (22%)

Torex Gold $14.27 $9.87 $17.96 0.56x $16.11 0.62x (10%)

IAMGOLD $3.17 $2.19 $6.51 0.32x $5.56 0.38x (15%)

Wesdome Mines $6.82 $4.72 $6.95 0.64x $7.72 0.57x 11%

Fortuna Silver Mines $3.66 $2.53 $2.79 0.94x $1.43 1.35x (49%)

Dundee Precious Metals $4.27 $2.95 $7.37 0.52x $6.55 0.57x (11%)

K92 Mining $2.37 $1.64 $5.65 0.26x $4.96 0.30x (12%)

TMAC Resources $0.61 $0.42 $8.65 0.11x $10.08 0.09x 17%

Argonaut Gold $1.08 $0.75 $2.55 0.19x $1.95 0.29x (24%)

Calibre Mining $0.54 $0.37 $1.60 0.17x $1.40 0.21x (13%)

Premier Gold $1.10 $0.76 $3.23 0.12x $3.02 0.14x (6%)

AVERAGE 0.56x 0.83x (25%)

PRODUCER AVERAGE 0.62x 0.84x (21%)

Share Pr i ce

CG Pr i ce Deck Cur rent F wd Curve

19-Mar -20


Figure 5: CG Price Deck Assumptions

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024+LT

Gold US$/oz $1,394 $1,542 $1,570 $1,593 $1,612 $1,631

Silver US$/oz $16.21 $18.19 $18.54 $18.85 $19.23 $19.50

Copper US$/lb $2.72 $2.88 $3.00 $3.00 $3.00 $3.00

CAD:USD 0.75 0.77 0.77 0.76 0.76 0.76

AUD:USD 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71

Gold US$/oz $1,394 $1,482 $1,494 $1,511 $1,529 $1,548

Silver US$/oz $16.21 $11.80 $11.94 $12.18 $12.55 $12.82

Copper US$/lb $2.72 $2.88 $3.00 $3.00 $3.00 $3.00

CAD:USD 0.75 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69

AUD:USD 0.70 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.57

CG Price Deck

Daily Fwd Curve



20 March 2020 3

Figure 6: EV/EBITDA


Company

(C$/sh) (US$/sh) 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021

ROYALTY

Franco-Nevada $150.27 $103.89 29.3x 24.3x 22.1x 28.8x 27.1x 24.8x

Wheaton Precious Metals $36.16 $25.00 21.9x 16.4x 15.2x 21.8x 21.4x 20.3x

Royal Gold $107.63 $74.41 14.2x 10.9x 9.1x 14.2x 12.1x 10.2x

Osisko Gold Royalties $10.12 $7.00 17.0x 12.2x 9.8x 16.5x 13.3x 11.0x

Sandstorm Gold $7.29 $5.04 17.5x 12.9x 10.5x 17.5x 14.6x 12.1x

AVERAGE 20.0x 15.4x 13.3x 19.8x 17.7x 15.7x

SENIOR PRODUCERS

Newmont* $60.37 $41.74 9.5x 6.5x 5.7x 8.8x 7.6x 6.9x

Barrick Gold $23.34 $16.14 8.4x 6.7x 6.0x 8.3x 7.5x 6.9x

Agnico Eagle Mines $57.07 $39.46 10.7x 8.4x 6.3x 10.6x 8.5x 6.6x

Kirkland Lake Gold $39.32 $27.18 7.2x 4.6x 4.1x 5.1x 4.7x 4.5x

Kinross $5.75 $3.98 4.6x 3.5x 2.8x 4.6x 4.0x 3.3x

Yamana Gold $4.27 $2.95 4.9x 4.4x 3.3x 4.9x 5.3x 4.0x

B2Gold $4.37 $3.02 5.8x 3.6x 3.4x 5.7x 3.9x 3.8x

Pan American Silver Corp $19.22 $13.29 7.2x 4.4x 2.6x 7.2x 6.6x 4.0x

AVERAGE 7.3x 5.3x 4.3x 6.9x 6.0x 5.0x


Alamos Gold $7.82 $5.41 6.5x 6.5x 4.1x 6.5x 7.1x 4.6x

Centerra Gold $8.33 $5.76 3.2x 2.2x 1.5x 3.2x 2.4x 1.7x

Pretium Resources $9.35 $6.46 7.7x 5.6x 4.3x 7.7x 6.3x 4.9x

Hecla Mining Company $2.57 $1.78 7.5x 6.7x 5.8x 7.5x 11.6x 10.6x

SSR Mining $17.42 $12.04 5.5x 4.0x 2.4x 5.5x 5.2x 3.3x

Eldorado Gold $8.01 $5.54 5.2x 2.5x 3.1x 5.2x 2.8x 3.6x

Coeur Mining, Inc. $4.66 $3.22 9.3x 5.8x 4.0x 9.3x 11.9x 7.5x

Teranga Gold $5.39 $3.73 6.3x 4.5x 2.1x 4.5x 5.2x 2.4x

New Gold $0.82 $0.57 4.4x 2.8x 2.2x 4.4x 3.0x 2.5x

Torex Gold $14.27 $9.87 2.6x 1.8x 1.0x 2.6x 1.9x 1.1x

IAMGOLD $3.17 $2.19 2.2x 1.7x 1.3x 2.2x 2.0x 1.8x

Wesdome Mines $6.82 $4.72 10.4x 7.9x 3.8x 10.4x 7.7x 3.8x

Fortuna Silver Mines $3.66 $2.53 4.9x 4.3x 1.0x 4.9x 7.6x 1.6x

Dundee Precious Metals $4.27 $2.95 3.8x 2.1x 1.1x 3.8x 2.3x 1.4x

K92 Mining $2.37 $1.64 14.5x 3.2x 1.9x 14.5x 3.5x 2.3x

TMAC Resources $0.61 $0.42 1.9x 1.7x 1.9x 1.9x 1.5x 1.6x

Argonaut Gold $1.08 $0.75 2.1x 1.8x 1.0x 2.0x 2.5x 1.4x

Calibre Mining $0.54 $0.37 16.3x 1.0x 0.6x 1.3x 1.2x 0.8x

AVERAGE 7.5x 3.6x 2.3x 6.6x 4.6x 3.1x

GROUP AVERAGE 11.6x 8.1x 6.6x 11.1x 9.4x 7.9x

EV/EB ITDA on CG Pr i ce DeckEV/EB ITDA on Cur rent F wd

Curve

19-Mar -20

Share Pr i ce

*Note: 2019 estimates for Newmont in the table above are shown on a pro forma basis with Goldcorp



20 March 2020 4

Figure 7: Balance Sheet


Company

C$/sh US$/sh 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021

ROYALTY

Franco-Nevada $150.27 $103.89 -0.1x -0.8x -1.4x -0.1x -0.7x -1.4x

Wheaton Precious Metals $36.16 $25.00 1.4x 0.4x -0.3x 1.4x 0.8x 0.1x

Royal Gold $107.63 $74.41 0.1x -0.3x -1.0x 0.1x -0.2x -0.9x

Osisko Gold Royalties $10.12 $7.00 2.4x 1.2x 0.3x 2.4x 1.2x 0.3x

Sandstorm Gold $7.29 $5.04 0.7x -0.2x -1.0x 0.7x -0.1x -0.9x

AVERAGE 0.9x 0.1x -0.7x 0.9x 0.2x -0.6x

SENIOR PRODUCERS

Newmont* $60.37 $41.74 1.0x 0.2x -0.1x 1.0x 0.3x 0.0x

Barrick Gold $23.34 $16.14 0.6x 0.2x -0.1x 0.6x 0.3x 0.1x

Agnico Eagle Mines $57.07 $39.46 1.4x 1.0x 0.6x 1.4x 1.1x 0.7x

Kirkland Lake Gold $39.32 $27.18 -0.7x -0.9x -1.3x -0.7x -0.9x -1.3x

Kinross $5.75 $3.98 0.9x 0.5x 0.1x 0.9x 0.7x 0.3x

Yamana Gold $4.27 $2.95 1.1x 0.8x 0.2x 1.1x 1.0x 0.4x

B2Gold $4.37 $3.02 0.2x -0.3x -0.9x 0.2x -0.2x -0.8x

Pan American Silver Corp $19.22 $13.29 0.4x -0.1x -0.7x 0.4x 0.0x -0.6x

AVERAGE 0.6x 0.2x -0.3x 0.6x 0.3x -0.1x


Alamos Gold $7.82 $5.41 -0.6x -0.3x -0.4x -0.6x -0.3x -0.3x

Centerra Gold $8.33 $5.76 0.1x -0.2x -0.7x 0.1x -0.2x -0.7x

Pretium Resources $9.35 $6.46 2.1x 1.0x 0.2x 2.1x 1.3x 0.4x

Hecla Mining Company $2.57 $1.78 2.5x 2.0x 1.6x 2.5x 3.8x 3.4x

SSR Mining $17.42 $12.04 -1.0x -1.2x -1.5x -1.0x -1.3x -1.6x

Eldorado Gold $8.01 $5.54 1.3x 0.4x 0.5x 1.3x 0.5x 0.7x

Coeur Mining, Inc. $4.66 $3.22 2.2x 1.5x 1.1x 2.2x 3.6x 2.8x

Teranga Gold $5.39 $3.73 1.2x 1.4x 0.3x 1.2x 1.7x 0.4x

New Gold $0.82 $0.57 2.7x 1.4x 1.1x 2.7x 1.5x 1.3x

Torex Gold $14.27 $9.87 0.0x -0.4x -1.0x 0.0x -0.5x -1.1x

IAMGOLD $3.17 $2.19 -1.6x -1.1x -1.1x -1.6x -1.1x -1.1x

Wesdome Mines $6.82 $4.72 -0.4x -0.7x -0.9x -0.4x -0.7x -1.0x

Fortuna Silver Mines $3.66 $2.53 0.7x 0.8x -0.4x 0.7x 1.7x -0.2x

Dundee Precious Metals $4.27 $2.95 -0.1x -0.5x -1.1x -0.1x -0.5x -1.1x

K92 Mining $2.37 $1.64 -1.1x -0.8x -1.6x -1.1x -0.8x -1.6x

TMAC Resources $0.61 $0.42 1.3x 1.2x 1.4x 1.3x 0.9x 1.1x

Argonaut Gold $1.08 $0.75 -0.6x -0.3x 0.0x -0.6x -0.2x 0.2x

Calibre Mining $0.54 $0.37 -5.0x -0.5x -0.6x -5.0x -0.5x -0.6x

Premier Gold $1.10 $0.76 -9.3x -3.1x -3.3x -9.3x -3.6x -3.8x

AVERAGE -0.3x 0.0x -0.4x -0.3x 0.3x -0.1x

GROUP AVERAGE 0.4x 0.1x -0.4x 0.4x 0.2x -0.3x

ND/EBITDA on CG Pr i ce

Deck

ND/EBITDA on Cur rent

F wd Curve

19-Mar -20

Share Pr i ce




20 March 2020 5

Figure 8: Earnings


(C$/sh) (US$/sh) 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021

ROYALTY

Franco-Nevada $150.27 $103.89 $1.85 $2.28 $2.50 56.3x 45.6x 41.6x $1.85 $2.01 $2.18 56.3x 51.8x 47.7x

Wheaton Precious Metals $36.16 $25.00 $0.54 $0.95 $0.98 45.9x 26.5x 25.5x $0.54 $0.59 $0.58 45.9x 42.5x 42.9x

Royal Gold $107.63 $74.41 $2.62 $3.03 $3.86 28.4x 24.6x 19.3x $2.62 $2.65 $3.41 28.4x 28.1x 21.9x

Osisko Gold Royalties $10.12 $7.00 $0.16 $0.24 $0.29 44.4x 29.6x 24.4x $0.16 $0.22 $0.26 44.4x 31.9x 27.2x

Sandstorm Gold $7.29 $5.04 $0.07 $0.12 $0.16 73.0x 43.7x 31.5x $0.07 $0.08 $0.12 73.0x 60.1x 40.6x

AVERAGE 49.6x 34.0x 28.4x 49.6x 42.9x 36.0x

SENIOR PRODUCERS

Newmont* $60.37 $41.74 $1.28 $1.98 $2.53 32.5x 21.1x 16.5x $1.28 $1.47 $1.92 32.5x 28.5x 21.8x

Barrick Gold $23.34 $16.14 $0.51 $0.66 $0.78 31.4x 24.6x 20.6x $0.51 $0.52 $0.62 31.4x 31.0x 26.0x

Agnico Eagle Mines $57.07 $39.46 $0.95 $1.31 $2.14 41.7x 30.0x 18.4x $0.95 $1.28 $1.97 41.7x 30.9x 20.0x

Kirkland Lake Gold $39.32 $27.18 $2.73 $2.80 $2.56 10.0x 9.7x 10.6x $2.73 $2.69 $2.33 10.0x 10.1x 11.7x

Kinross $5.75 $3.98 $0.34 $0.44 $0.47 11.9x 9.1x 8.5x $0.34 $0.35 $0.37 11.9x 11.4x 10.8x

Yamana Gold $4.27 $2.95 $0.13 $0.15 $0.26 23.5x 20.0x 11.3x $0.13 $0.09 $0.18 23.5x 32.6x 16.7x

B2Gold $4.37 $3.02 $0.24 $0.33 $0.33 12.5x 9.2x 9.1x $0.24 $0.30 $0.29 12.5x 10.2x 10.6x

Pan American Silver Corp $19.22 $13.29 $0.78 $0.88 $1.72 17.0x 15.1x 7.7x $0.78 $0.21 $0.93 17.0x 62.4x 14.3x

AVERAGE 22.5x 17.3x 12.8x 22.5x 27.1x 16.5x


Alamos Gold $7.82 $5.41 $0.21 $0.29 $0.54 25.5x 18.8x 10.0x $0.21 $0.24 $0.47 25.5x 22.6x 11.6x

Centerra Gold $8.33 $5.76 $0.72 $1.05 $1.09 8.0x 5.5x 5.3x $0.72 $0.93 $0.94 8.0x 6.2x 6.1x

Pretium Resources $9.35 $6.46 $0.54 $0.72 $0.85 11.9x 8.9x 7.6x $0.54 $0.59 $0.72 11.9x 10.9x 8.9x

Hecla Mining Company $2.57 $1.78 ($0.20) ($0.04) $0.03 nm nm 64.0x ($0.20) ($0.14) ($0.09) nm nm nm

SSR Mining $17.42 $12.04 $0.81 $0.92 $1.43 14.9x 13.1x 8.4x $0.81 $0.56 $1.03 14.9x 21.3x 11.7x

Eldorado Gold $8.01 $5.54 $0.07 $0.78 $0.27 79.8x 7.1x 20.8x $0.07 $0.66 $0.15 79.8x 8.4x 35.8x

Coeur Mining, Inc. $4.66 $3.22 ($0.54) $0.07 $0.33 nm 43.3x 9.8x ($0.54) ($0.28) ($0.08) nm nm nm

Teranga Gold $5.39 $3.73 $0.01 $0.06 $0.89 nm 57.9x nm $0.01 ($0.04) $0.77 nm nm nm

New Gold $0.82 $0.57 ($0.08) ($0.10) ($0.06) nm nm nm ($0.08) ($0.12) ($0.09) nm nm nm

Torex Gold $14.27 $9.87 $0.79 $0.28 $0.60 12.5x 35.0x 16.4x $0.79 $0.08 $0.34 12.5x nm 29.1x

IAMGOLD $3.17 $2.19 ($0.08) $0.08 $0.15 nm 28.0x 14.7x ($0.08) $0.01 $0.05 nm 216.4x 42.6x

Wesdome Mines $6.82 $4.72 $0.23 $0.39 $0.76 20.9x 12.2x 6.2x $0.23 $0.41 $0.75 20.9x 11.5x 6.3x

Fortuna Silver Mines $3.66 $2.53 $0.17 $0.30 $0.98 14.7x 8.5x 2.6x $0.17 $0.09 $0.69 14.7x 27.0x 3.6x

Dundee Precious Metals $4.27 $2.95 $0.19 $0.55 $0.68 15.5x 5.4x 4.4x $0.19 $0.47 $0.58 15.5x 6.2x 5.1x

K92 Mining $2.37 $1.64 $0.10 $0.29 $0.47 16.8x 5.7x 3.5x $0.10 $0.26 $0.43 16.8x 6.2x 3.9x

TMAC Resources $0.61 $0.42 $0.09 $0.31 $0.23 4.7x 1.3x 1.8x $0.09 $0.36 $0.28 4.7x 1.2x 1.5x

Argonaut Gold $1.08 $0.75 ($0.52) $0.16 $0.37 nm 4.7x 2.0x ($0.52) $0.10 $0.28 nm 7.7x 2.6x

Calibre Mining $0.54 $0.37 $0.01 $0.14 $0.17 45.2x 2.7x 2.1x $0.01 $0.12 $0.15 45.2x 3.0x 2.5x

Premier Gold $1.10 $0.76 ($0.10) $0.03 $0.04 nm 25.1x 19.2x ($0.10) $0.01 $0.01 nm 97.7x 63.2x

AVERAGE 22.5x 16.7x 11.7x 22.5x 17.7x 15.6x

GROUP AVERAGE 31.6x 22.7x 17.7x 31.6x 29.2x 22.7x

Company Share Pr i ce

CG Pr i ce Deck

EPS

(US$/sh)P/E

19-Mar -20

EPS

(US$/sh)P/E

Cur rent F wd Curve




20 March 2020 6

Figure 9: Cash Flow


(C$/sh) (US$/sh) 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021

ROYALTY

Franco-Nevada $150.27 $103.89 $3.39 $3.86 $4.15 30.7x 26.9x 25.0x $3.39 $3.49 $3.74 30.7x 29.8x 27.8x

Wheaton Precious Metals $36.16 $25.00 $1.15 $1.51 $1.60 21.8x 16.6x 15.6x $1.15 $1.16 $1.21 21.8x 21.6x 20.6x

Royal Gold $107.63 $74.41 $4.63 $5.80 $6.57 16.1x 12.8x 11.3x $4.63 $5.26 $5.97 16.1x 14.1x 12.5x

Osisko Gold Royalties $10.12 $7.00 $0.48 $0.57 $0.67 14.6x 12.3x 10.4x $0.48 $0.52 $0.60 14.6x 13.5x 11.7x

Sandstorm Gold $7.29 $5.04 $0.32 $0.38 $0.43 15.8x 13.1x 11.6x $0.32 $0.35 $0.39 15.8x 14.5x 12.9x

AVERAGE 19.8x 16.4x 14.8x 19.8x 18.7x 17.1x

SENIOR PRODUCERS

Newmont* $60.37 $41.74 $4.66 $5.12 $5.38 9.0x 8.2x 7.8x $4.66 $4.56 $4.73 9.0x 9.1x 8.8x

Barrick Gold $23.34 $16.14 $1.61 $1.84 $2.05 10.0x 8.8x 7.9x $1.61 $1.64 $1.81 10.0x 9.8x 8.9x

Agnico Eagle Mines $57.07 $39.46 $3.41 $3.96 $5.22 11.6x 10.0x 7.6x $3.41 $3.92 $5.05 11.6x 10.1x 7.8x

Kirkland Lake Gold $39.32 $27.18 $4.46 $4.48 $4.38 6.1x 6.1x 6.2x $4.46 $4.35 $4.12 6.1x 6.3x 6.6x

Kinross $5.75 $3.98 $0.89 $1.15 $1.14 4.5x 3.4x 3.5x $0.89 $1.02 $1.03 4.5x 3.9x 3.8x

Yamana Gold $4.27 $2.95 $0.53 $0.67 $0.80 5.6x 4.4x 3.7x $0.53 $0.58 $0.71 5.6x 5.1x 4.2x

B2Gold $4.37 $3.02 $0.42 $0.58 $0.56 7.1x 5.2x 5.4x $0.42 $0.55 $0.52 7.1x 5.5x 5.8x

Pan American Silver Corp $19.22 $13.29 $1.48 $2.47 $3.27 9.0x 5.4x 4.1x $1.48 $1.80 $2.48 9.0x 7.4x 5.4x

AVERAGE 7.8x 6.4x 5.8x 7.8x 7.1x 6.4x


Alamos Gold $7.82 $5.41 $0.75 $0.67 $0.99 7.2x 8.1x 5.4x $0.75 $0.62 $0.92 7.2x 8.7x 5.9x

Centerra Gold $8.33 $5.76 $1.48 $2.07 $2.17 3.9x 2.8x 2.7x $1.48 $1.95 $2.01 3.9x 2.9x 2.9x

Pretium Resources $9.35 $6.46 $1.21 $1.41 $1.57 5.4x 4.6x 4.1x $1.21 $1.28 $1.41 5.4x 5.1x 4.6x

Hecla Mining Company $2.57 $1.78 $0.22 $0.33 $0.34 8.1x 5.5x 5.2x $0.22 $0.22 $0.23 8.1x 8.0x 7.8x

SSR Mining $17.42 $12.04 $1.59 $2.23 $2.93 7.6x 5.4x 4.1x $1.59 $1.72 $2.36 7.6x 7.0x 5.1x

Eldorado Gold $8.01 $5.54 $0.93 $1.99 $1.58 6.0x 2.8x 3.5x $0.93 $1.87 $1.46 6.0x 3.0x 3.8x

Coeur Mining, Inc. $4.66 $3.22 $0.56 $0.63 $0.93 5.8x 5.1x 3.5x $0.56 $0.29 $0.57 5.8x 11.0x 5.6x

Teranga Gold $5.39 $3.73 $0.50 $0.72 $1.45 7.5x 5.2x 2.6x $0.50 $0.62 $1.33 7.5x 6.0x 2.8x

New Gold $0.82 $0.57 $0.35 $0.32 $0.41 1.6x 1.7x 1.4x $0.35 $0.31 $0.37 1.6x 1.9x 1.5x

Torex Gold $14.27 $9.87 $3.88 $3.32 $3.68 2.5x 3.0x 2.7x $3.88 $3.03 $3.41 2.5x 3.3x 2.9x

IAMGOLD $3.17 $2.19 $0.39 $0.61 $0.73 5.6x 3.6x 3.0x $0.39 $0.55 $0.63 5.6x 4.0x 3.5x

Wesdome Mines $6.82 $4.72 $0.38 $0.51 $0.93 12.3x 9.2x 5.1x $0.38 $0.52 $0.90 12.3x 9.0x 5.2x

Fortuna Silver Mines $3.66 $2.53 $0.46 $0.58 $1.38 5.5x 4.4x 1.8x $0.46 $0.37 $1.10 5.5x 6.8x 2.3x

Dundee Precious Metals $4.27 $2.95 $0.61 $0.84 $1.21 4.8x 3.5x 2.4x $0.61 $0.77 $1.11 4.8x 3.9x 2.7x

K92 Mining $2.37 $1.64 $0.17 $0.29 $0.47 9.5x 5.7x 3.5x $0.17 $0.26 $0.43 9.5x 6.2x 3.9x

TMAC Resources $0.61 $0.42 $0.60 $0.66 $0.65 0.7x 0.6x 0.7x $0.60 $0.67 $0.65 0.7x 0.6x 0.6x

Argonaut Gold $1.08 $0.75 $0.41 $0.31 $0.59 1.8x 2.4x 1.3x $0.41 $0.25 $0.51 1.8x 3.0x 1.5x

Calibre Mining $0.54 $0.37 $0.17 $0.18 $0.22 2.2x 2.1x 1.7x $0.17 $0.16 $0.20 2.2x 2.3x 1.9x

Premier Gold $1.10 $0.76 ($0.06) $0.08 $0.10 nm 9.3x 7.9x ($0.06) $0.06 $0.07 nm 12.3x 10.6x

AVERAGE 5.4x 4.5x 3.3x 5.4x 5.5x 3.9x

PRODUCER AVERAGE 11.0x 9.1x 7.9x 11.0x 10.4x 9.2x

19-Mar -20

Share Pr i ceP/CF

Company

CG Pr i ce Deck

CF PS

(US$/sh)P/CF

CF PS

(US$/sh)

Cur rent F wd Curve




20 March 2020 7

Figure 10: Free Cash Flow


Company Mk t CapF CF

Margi n

F CF

Margi n

(US$mm) 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 2020 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 2020

ROY ALTY

Franco-Nevada $19,708 $630 $730 $786 3.2% 3.7% 4.0% 75% $630 $661 $709 3.3% 3.4% 3.6% 75%

Wheaton Precious Metals $11,211 $513 $675 $717 4.6% 6.0% 6.4% 67% $513 $519 $543 4.6% 4.6% 4.8% 62%

Royal Gold $4,882 $303 $380 $431 6.2% 7.8% 8.8% 66% $303 $345 $392 6.2% 7.1% 8.0% 66%

Osisko Gold Royalties* $1,098 $68 $89 $105 6.8% 8.9% 10.5% 68% $68 $82 $94 7.0% 8.2% 9.4% 68%

Sandstorm Gold $959 $58 $67 $65 6.0% 7.0% 6.8% 61% $58 $60 $57 6.0% 6.2% 5.9% 60%

AVERAGE 5.4% 6.7% 7.3% 68% 5.4% 5.9% 6.3% 66%

SENIOR PRODUCERS

Newmont* $33,793 $1,673 $2,484 $2,506 5.0% 7.4% 7.4% 22% $1,673 $2,034 $1,983 5.4% 6.0% 5.9% 19%

Barrick Gold $28,690 $1,318 $1,408 $1,508 4.6% 4.9% 5.3% 16% $1,318 $1,054 $1,082 4.7% 3.7% 3.8% 12%

Agnico Eagle Mines $9,507 ($69) $233 $671 (0.7%) 2.5% 7.1% 8% ($69) $224 $630 (0.7%) 2.4% 6.6% 8%

Kirkland Lake Gold $7,826 $543 $632 $820 6.9% 8.1% 10.5% 28% $543 $593 $746 9.4% 7.8% 9.5% 27%

Kinross $5,018 $16 $491 $691 0.3% 9.8% 13.8% 13% $16 $327 $559 0.3% 6.5% 11.1% 9%

Yamana Gold $2,819 $126 $290 $504 4.5% 10.3% 17.9% 19% $126 $209 $416 4.5% 7.4% 14.8% 15%

B2Gold $3,138 $195 $289 $364 6.2% 9.2% 11.6% 22% $195 $255 $324 6.3% 8.1% 10.3% 20%

Pan American Silver Corp $2,788 $94 $251 $580 3.4% 9.0% 20.8% 15% $94 $111 $414 3.4% 4.0% 14.9% 7%

AVERAGE 3.8% 7.6% 11.8% 18% 4.2% 5.7% 9.6% 15%


Alamos Gold $2,114 $29 ($25) $132 1.4% (1.2%) 6.2% (4%) $29 ($44) $102 1.4% (2.1%) 4.8% (7%)

Centerra Gold $1,691 $102 $162 $359 6.0% 9.6% 21.2% 11% $102 $128 $312 6.0% 7.5% 18.4% 9%

Pretium Resources $1,201 $180 $207 $257 15.0% 17.3% 21.4% 38% $180 $182 $227 15.0% 15.2% 18.9% 35%

Hecla Mining Company $895 ($17) $50 $72 (1.9%) 5.6% 8.0% 8% ($17) ($2) $14 (1.9%) (0.2%) 1.6% (0%)

SSR Mining $1,482 $99 $133 $255 6.7% 9.0% 17.2% 20% $99 $71 $186 6.7% 4.8% 12.6% 11%

Eldorado Gold $895 ($53) $76 $88 (5.9%) 8.5% 9.9% 8% ($53) $56 $70 (5.9%) 6.3% 7.8% 6%

Coeur Mining, Inc. $778 $36 ($27) ($19) 4.6% (3.5%) (2.4%) (4%) $36 ($107) ($106) 4.6% (13.8%) (13.6%) (17%)

Teranga Gold $624 ($106) $58 $184 (17.0%) 9.3% 29.5% 12% ($106) $41 $163 (26.4%) 6.5% 26.2% 9%

New Gold $383 ($16) ($93) $30 (4.0%) (24.2%) 7.9% (14%) ($16) ($105) $2 (4.0%) (27.4%) 0.5% (16%)

Torex Gold $849 $212 $112 $183 25.0% 13.2% 21.6% 16% $212 $88 $161 25.0% 10.3% 18.9% 13%

IAMGOLD $1,025 ($42) ($63) $100 (4.1%) (6.1%) 9.7% (6%) ($42) ($94) $55 (4.1%) (9.2%) 5.3% (9%)

Wesdome Mines $663 $28 $38 $86 4.3% 5.7% 13.0% 24% $28 $43 $87 4.3% 6.5% 13.2% 28%

Fortuna Silver Mines $406 ($109) ($20) $199 (26.9%) (5.0%) 49.0% (7%) ($109) ($54) $154 (26.9%) (13.2%) 37.8% (23%)

Dundee Precious Metals $533 $38 $110 $178 7.1% 20.7% 33.5% 20% $38 $96 $160 7.1% 18.1% 30.0% 18%

K92 Mining $341 ($6) $44 $83 (1.6%) 12.9% 24.3% 24% ($6) $39 $73 (1.6%) 11.4% 21.3% 22%

TMAC Resources $48 ($24) ($9) ($13) (50.8%) (18.3%) (27.3%) (5%) ($24) $1 ($4) (50.8%) 2.5% (8.2%) 1%

Argonaut Gold $135 $38 ($9) ($18) 28.2% (7.0%) (13.1%) (4%) $38 ($20) ($34) 28.5% (15.1%) (24.9%) (8%)

Calibre Mining $140 $7 ($2) $5 5.3% (1.4%) 3.5% (1%) $7 ($8) ($3) 17.9% (5.5%) (1.9%) (3%)

Premier Gold $160 ($62) ($8) ($5) (38.8%) (4.8%) (2.9%) (6%) ($62) ($12) ($10) (38.8%) (7.4%) (6.1%) (10%)

AVERAGE (2.5%) 2.1% 12.1% 6.9% (2.3%) (0.3%) 8.6% 3.1%

GROUP AVERAGE 2.2% 5.5% 10.4% 31% 2.4% 3.8% 8.2% 28%

19-Mar -20


F CF

(US$mm)

F CF Y i e l d

(%)

F CF

(US$mm)

F CF Y i e l d

(%)




20 March 2020 8

Figure 11: Free Cash Flow after Sustaining Capital


Company Mk t CapSust F CF

Margi n

Sust F CF

Margi n

(US$mm) 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 2020 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 2020

ROYALTY

Franco-Nevada $19,708 $630 $730 $786 3.2% 3.7% 4.0% 75% $630 $661 $709 3.3% 3.4% 3.6% 75%

Wheaton Precious Metals $11,211 $513 $675 $717 4.6% 6.0% 6.4% 67% $513 $519 $543 4.6% 4.6% 4.8% 62%

Royal Gold $4,882 $303 $380 $431 6.2% 7.8% 8.8% 66% $303 $345 $392 6.2% 7.1% 8.0% 66%

Osisko Gold Royalties* $1,098 $73 $89 $105 7.3% 8.9% 10.5% 68% $73 $82 $94 7.5% 8.2% 9.4% 68%

Sandstorm Gold $959 $61 $73 $83 6.3% 7.6% 8.6% 67% $61 $66 $75 6.3% 6.9% 7.8% 67%

AVERAGE 5.5% 6.8% 7.7% 69% 5.6% 6.0% 6.7% 67%

SENIOR PRODUCERS

Newmont* $33,793 $2,118 $3,091 $3,279 6.3% 9.1% 9.7% 27% $2,118 $2,641 $2,756 6.9% 7.8% 8.2% 25%

Barrick Gold $28,690 $1,670 $2,143 $2,520 5.8% 7.5% 8.8% 24% $1,670 $1,790 $2,094 5.9% 6.2% 7.3% 21%

Agnico Eagle Mines $9,507 $394 $522 $854 4.1% 5.5% 9.0% 17% $394 $513 $813 4.2% 5.4% 8.6% 18%

Kirkland Lake Gold $7,826 $752 $826 $986 9.6% 10.6% 12.6% 37% $752 $787 $912 13.1% 10.3% 11.7% 36%

Kinross $5,018 $406 $871 $971 8.1% 17.4% 19.3% 23% $406 $707 $839 8.1% 14.1% 16.7% 20%

Yamana Gold $2,819 $176 $301 $515 6.2% 10.7% 18.3% 20% $176 $221 $427 6.2% 7.8% 15.2% 16%

B2Gold $3,138 $298 $404 $408 9.5% 12.9% 13.0% 31% $298 $371 $368 9.6% 11.8% 11.7% 29%

Pan American Silver Corp $2,788 $135 $278 $580 4.8% 10.0% 20.8% 16% $135 $138 $414 4.8% 5.0% 14.9% 9%

AVERAGE 6.8% 10.4% 13.9% 24% 7.4% 8.6% 11.8% 22%


Alamos Gold $2,114 $216 $175 $300 10.2% 8.3% 14.2% 25% $216 $156 $270 10.2% 7.4% 12.8% 24%

Centerra Gold $1,691 $343 $490 $565 20.3% 29.0% 33.4% 33% $343 $455 $518 20.3% 26.9% 30.7% 31%

Pretium Resources $1,201 $202 $232 $267 16.8% 19.3% 22.3% 42% $202 $207 $237 16.8% 17.3% 19.7% 40%

Hecla Mining Company $895 ($17) $50 $72 (1.9%) 5.6% 8.0% 8% ($17) ($2) $14 (1.9%) (0.2%) 1.6% (0%)

SSR Mining $1,482 $132 $183 $293 8.9% 12.4% 19.8% 27% $132 $121 $224 8.9% 8.1% 15.1% 20%

Eldorado Gold $895 $71 $195 $163 7.9% 21.8% 18.3% 22% $71 $175 $145 8.0% 19.5% 16.2% 20%

Coeur Mining, Inc. $778 $67 ($27) ($19) 8.6% (3.5%) (2.4%) (4%) $67 ($107) ($106) 8.6% (13.8%) (13.6%) (17%)

Teranga Gold $624 $8 $57 $193 1.4% 9.1% 30.9% 11% $8 $40 $172 2.1% 6.4% 27.6% 8%

New Gold $383 $21 $9 $139 5.3% 2.2% 36.3% 1% $21 ($3) $111 5.3% (0.9%) 28.9% (1%)

Torex Gold $849 $255 $194 $253 30.0% 22.9% 29.8% 27% $255 $170 $231 30.1% 20.0% 27.2% 25%

IAMGOLD $1,025 $87 $69 $125 8.4% 6.7% 12.2% 6% $87 $38 $80 8.4% 3.7% 7.8% 3%

Wesdome Mines $663 $28 $50 $109 4.3% 7.5% 16.5% 31% $28 $53 $108 4.3% 8.0% 16.3% 35%

Fortuna Silver Mines $406 $48 $59 $199 12.0% 14.6% 49.0% 21% $48 $26 $154 12.0% 6.5% 37.8% 11%

Dundee Precious Metals $533 $77 $110 $178 14.5% 20.7% 33.5% 20% $77 $96 $160 14.5% 18.1% 30.0% 18%

K92 Mining $341 $6 $44 $83 1.9% 12.9% 24.3% 24% $6 $39 $73 1.9% 11.4% 21.3% 22%

TMAC Resources $48 $24 $31 $24 50.6% 65.8% 50.2% 18% $24 $37 $29 50.6% 77.9% 61.6% 20%

Argonaut Gold $135 $38 $36 $85 28.2% 26.7% 63.0% 14% $38 $25 $69 28.5% 18.5% 51.2% 10%

Calibre Mining $140 $12 $35 $45 8.7% 25.2% 32.5% 15% $12 $29 $36 29.4% 21.0% 26.0% 13%

Premier Gold $160 ($24) $6 $9 (15.0%) 3.5% 5.3% 4% ($24) $1 $3 (15.0%) 0.9% 2.2% 1%

AVERAGE 11.6% 16.3% 26.2% 18.3% 12.8% 13.5% 22.1% 14.9%

GROUP AVERAGE 8.0% 11.2% 15.9% 37% 8.6% 9.4% 13.5% 35%

19-Mar -20


Susta i ni ng F CF

(US$mm)

Susta i ni ng F CF Y i e l d

(%)

Susta i ni ng F CF

(US$mm)

Susta i ni ng F CF Y i e l d

(%)




20 March 2020 9

Figure 12: Production and Costs


Company Mk t CapProd'n

Growth

Avg

(US$/oz )

Avg

(US$/oz )

(US$mm) 2019 2020 2021 (19-21) 2019 2020 2021 (19-21) 2019 2020 2021 (19-21)

ROYALTY

Franco-Nevada $19,708 520 576 589 13% $239 $260 $256 $252 $258 $274 $269 $267

Wheaton Precious Metals $11,211 618 651 670 8% $418 $411 $455 $428 $490 $488 $491 $490

Royal Gold $4,882 292 305 347 19% $249 $254 $251 $251 $348 $338 $335 $340

Osisko Gold Royalties $1,098 78 85 95 22% $132 $99 $100 $110 $422 $374 $355 $384

Sandstorm Gold $959 64 68 70 10% $285 $231 $224 $247 $285 $232 $225 $247

AVERAGE 14% $265 $251 $257 $258 $361 $341 $335 $346

SENIOR PRODUCERS

Newmont* $33,793 7,246 6,816 6,828 (6%) $740 $729 $702 $724 $1,049 $971 $948 $989

Barrick Gold $28,690 5,516 5,024 5,095 (8%) $668 $682 $652 $668 $921 $955 $926 $934

Agnico Eagle Mines $9,507 1,828 1,914 2,121 16% $696 $749 $665 $703 $1,050 $1,104 $972 $1,042

Kirkland Lake Gold $7,826 975 1,486 1,507 55% $284 $466 $506 $419 $556 $804 $769 $710

Kinross $5,018 2,505 2,454 2,537 1% $708 $728 $713 $716 $1,137 $1,104 $1,017 $1,086

Yamana Gold $2,819 1,024 995 1,044 2% $676 $668 $606 $650 $1,041 $1,095 $940 $1,026

B2Gold $3,138 871 901 870 (0%) $616 $538 $608 $587 $835 $829 $876 $847

Pan American Silver Corp $2,788 1,042 1,209 1,318 27% $876 $901 $763 $847 $1,107 $1,126 $871 $1,035

AVERAGE 11% $658 $682 $652 $664 $962 $999 $915 $958


Alamos Gold $2,114 495 445 528 7% $721 $773 $627 $707 $948 $1,036 $852 $946

Centerra Gold $1,691 903 933 991 10% $646 $618 $721 $662 $1,292 $1,033 $1,032 $1,119

Pretium Resources $1,201 361 364 374 4% $751 $785 $766 $767 $896 $953 $910 $919

Hecla Mining Company $895 558 484 483 (13%) $936 $937 $883 $918 $1,157 $1,185 $1,124 $1,155

SSR Mining $1,482 416 453 477 15% $758 $752 $664 $725 $1,027 $1,084 $903 $1,004

Eldorado Gold $895 393 526 427 9% $746 $728 $799 $758 $1,015 $1,012 $1,064 $1,030

Coeur Mining, Inc. $778 540 503 527 (2%) $1,040 $949 $828 $939 $1,686 $1,373 $1,354 $1,471

Teranga Gold $624 260 323 419 61% $726 $794 $613 $711 $1,004 $1,124 $823 $984

New Gold $383 490 498 488 (1%) $789 $804 $777 $790 $1,285 $1,279 $1,115 $1,226

Torex Gold $849 456 460 471 3% $623 $669 $646 $646 $793 $895 $815 $835

IAMGOLD $1,025 763 724 806 6% $942 $917 $958 $939 $1,228 $1,330 $1,337 $1,298

Wesdome Mines $663 92 101 136 48% $622 $665 $457 $581 $975 $1,027 $704 $902

Fortuna Silver Mines $406 200 224 354 77% $632 $699 $558 $630 $793 $876 $636 $768

Dundee Precious Metals $533 305 344 356 17% $753 $775 $749 $759 $1,420 $1,081 $1,027 $1,176

K92 Mining $341 80 123 137 71% $492 $635 $682 $603 $650 $758 $803 $737

TMAC Resources $48 140 118 118 (15%) $763 $642 $720 $708 $1,174 $1,127 $1,225 $1,175

Argonaut Gold $135 189 172 210 11% $955 $1,133 $913 $1,000 $1,186 $1,278 $994 $1,153

Calibre Mining $140 34 152 181 442% $865 $856 $879 $867 $907 $972 $1,003 $961

Premier Gold $160 70 81 66 (6%) $1,039 $860 $912 $937 $1,355 $1,151 $1,326 $1,277

AVERAGE 39% $779 $789 $745 $771 $1,094 $1,083 ##### $1,060

PRODUCER AVERAGE 21% $567 $574 $551 $564 $806 $808 $751 $788

Au Eq Producti on

(k oz )

Co -Product Cash Costs

(US$/oz )

Co -Product AISC

(US$/oz )

19-Mar -20




20 March 2020 10

Figure 13: Equity Short Interest (SI)


-1D 30D Avg SI SI Rati o 1mo 3mo 6mo 12mo

($/sh) (Msh) (Msh) (Msh) (Msh) (Msh) (Msh) (Msh)

ROYALTY

Franco-Nevada FNV CM C$150.27 1.66 1.52 4.63 4.44 4.42 3.87 2.12 3.04

Wheaton Precious Metals WPM CM C$36.16 4.36 4.67 10.76 2.38 9.72 8.59 6.24 13.40

Royal Gold RGLD CM US$74.41 1.36 1.02 2.39 2.79 2.53 2.32 2.76 2.14

Osisko Gold Royalties OR CM C$10.12 1.61 1.66 3.07 1.88 2.39 1.86 1.32 2.06

Sandstorm Gold SSL CM C$7.29 5.13 4.15 4.20 1.17 0.81 2.38 0.73 1.43

SENIOR PRODUCERS

Newmont* NEM CM US$41.74 10.52 13.07 16.99 1.43 17.27 17.09 13.93 30.23

Barrick Gold ABX CM C$23.34 22.99 26.93 25.67 1.01 27.50 29.68 32.42 20.40

Agnico Eagle Mines AEM CM C$57.07 3.49 3.16 3.70 1.07 3.75 4.96 5.44 5.79

Kirkland Lake Gold KL CM C$39.32 3.87 3.36 3.88 1.07 5.99 5.76 4.76 1.05

Kinross K CM C$5.75 28.58 28.91 20.23 0.75 25.16 13.78 14.60 20.97

Yamana Gold YRI CM C$4.27 34.05 30.98 28.21 0.91 28.29 17.20 7.60 4.73

B2Gold BTO CM C$4.37 0.13 0.12 0.01 0.12 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01

Pan American Silver Corp PAAS DB US$13.29 6.90 5.68 8.48 1.88 9.76 11.76 11.91 10.84


Alamos Gold AGI DB C$7.82 6.00 4.89 6.58 1.47 11.64 6.29 6.54 8.18

Centerra Gold CG DB C$8.33 5.54 3.54 5.48 1.84 3.99 7.05 5.72 3.26

Pretium Resources PVG KM C$9.35 3.40 3.26 11.09 3.32 11.31 11.47 11.09 17.10

Hecla Mining Company HL DB US$1.78 14.65 10.91 29.13 2.65 26.22 32.21 28.92 24.53

SSR Mining SSRM DB C$17.42 5.73 2.37 4.15 1.88 5.04 4.02 4.32 2.02

Eldorado Gold ELD CM C$8.01 5.48 6.59 2.44 0.30 5.15 2.80 3.81 2.70

Coeur Mining, Inc. CDE DB US$3.22 8.91 7.85 10.85 1.30 13.18 12.04 13.67 10.49

Teranga Gold TGZ CM C$5.39 1.31 0.98 7.25 12.98 6.33 3.71 2.04 1.35

New Gold NGD DB C$0.82 6.14 5.91 14.95 2.33 16.53 4.33 2.78 6.29

Torex Gold TXG KM C$14.27 1.13 0.73 1.97 4.44 1.70 1.31 1.66 1.04

IAMGOLD IMG CM C$3.17 15.04 11.24 10.93 0.91 12.01 8.29 7.09 5.52

Wesdome Mines WDO TG C$6.82 2.24 1.16 3.05 4.63 3.37 2.57 1.89 3.71

Fortuna Silver Mines FVI DB C$3.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04

Dundee Precious Metals DPM DB C$4.27 7.16 3.02 5.55 3.44 6.38 5.56 7.25 4.00

K92 Mining KNT TG C$2.37 1.64 2.02 2.83 1.86 1.31 2.48 0.39 0.08

TMAC Resources TMR TG C$0.61 0.54 0.45 0.40 1.71 0.40 0.45 0.55 0.65

Argonaut Gold AR TG C$1.08 20.67 18.13 50.44 4.04 45.22 44.05 46.95 41.37

Calibre Mining CXB TG C$0.54 0.52 0.42 0.19 0.60 0.23 0.02 0.00 0.08

Premier Gold PG TG C$1.10 16.43 13.10 21.14 2.22 19.75 22.32 20.07 22.48

19-Mar -20

Ti ck er Anal y st Pr i ceSI Vo l ume Cur rent SI Hi stor i c Shor t Interest

Company

Source: FactSet


20 March 2020 11

Exploration and Developers

Figure 14: Exploration and Developers

Pr i ces cl ose date :

Company Ti ck er Anal y st Pr i ce Mk t cap Rati ngTota l

Impl i ed

PRECIOUS METALS

Orezone Gold Corporation ORE-CA KM $0.26 $45 SPEC BUY C$ $2.00 669% 10.6% -17.5% -43% -58% -65% -59% -54%

Nulegacy Gold Corporation NUG-CA TG $0.03 $8 SPEC BUY C$ $0.15 400% 0.0% -33.3% -33% -54% -57% -14% -75%

Falco Resources Ltd. FPC-CA KM $0.18 $25 SPEC BUY C$ $0.70 300% 0.0% -18.6% -33% -29% -20% -36% -40%

O3 Mining Inc OIII-CA TG $1.17 $38 SPEC BUY C$ $4.50 285% 1.7% -18.2% -52% -56% -49% -51% -58%

Probe Metals, Inc. PRB-CA TG $0.72 $60 SPEC BUY C$ $2.60 261% -4.0% 2.9% -39% -27% -44% -44% -45%

Rubicon Minerals Corporation RMX-CA TG $0.57 $38 SPEC BUY C$ $1.80 216% -9.5% -10.9% -45% -36% -44% -14% -57%

Nighthawk Gold Corp. NHK-CA TG $1.34 $41 SPEC BUY C$ $3.80 184% 8.1% 15.5% -39% -39% -49% -46% -39%

Sabina Gold & Silver Corp. SBB-CA KM $1.08 $221 SPEC BUY C$ $3.00 178% 11.3% 9.1% -38% -42% -42% -19% -12%

Bear Creek Mining Corporation BCM-CA KM $1.18 $91 SPEC BUY C$ $3.25 175% 0.0% -4.1% -43% -55% -49% -29% 13%

Marathon Gold Corporation MOZ-CA TG $0.93 $115 SPEC BUY C$ $2.50 169% 8.1% -7.0% -40% -44% -30% -19% 21%

Osisko Mining Inc OSK-CA KM $1.98 $399 SPEC BUY C$ $5.25 165% 9.4% -19.5% -47% -44% -40% -40% -36%

Paramount Gold Nevada Corp PZG-US TG $0.57 $16 SPEC BUY C$ $1.50 162% 5.3% -9.8% -38% -23% -27% -27% -31%

Bluestone Resources Inc. BSR-CA KM $1.31 $75 SPEC BUY C$ $3.25 148% 5.6% 2.3% -28% -2% 1% 32% 10%

Troilus Gold Corp. TLG-CA TG $0.53 $32 SPEC BUY C$ $1.20 126% 7.1% 6.0% -33% -12% -27% -38% -29%

Great Bear Resources Ltd. GBR-CA KM $5.05 $160 SPEC BUY C$ $10.50 108% 3.7% 12.2% -44% -41% -44% 27% 114%

Seabridge Gold Inc SEA-CA DB $11.66 $510 SPEC BUY C$ $23.00 97% 1.2% 16.4% -35% -31% -36% -34% -35%

Pure Gold Mining Inc. PGM-CA KM $0.58 $144 SPEC BUY C$ $1.10 90% 3.6% 20.8% -24% -19% -3% -2% -11%

Gold Road Resources Ltd GOR-AU TM $1.06 $544 BUY A$ $2.00 90% 3.4% 2.9% -34% -5% -19% 7% 62%

MAG Silver Corp. MAG-CA KM $11.73 $702 SPEC BUY C$ $21.25 81% 14.3% 57.7% -17% -17% -22% -15% 17%

Belo Sun Mining Corp. BSX-CA TG $0.43 $134 SPEC BUY C$ $0.70 63% 6.2% 30.3% -17% 4% -13% 83% 13%

Corvus Gold Inc. KOR-CA TG $1.43 $123 SPEC BUY C$ $2.30 61% 10.9% -2.7% -39% -32% -38% -35% -46%

SilverCrest Metals, Inc. SIL-CA KM $6.91 $504 SPEC BUY C$ $10.00 45% 9.7% 12.0% -30% -16% -4% 33% 73%

Alexco Resource Corp. AXU-CA KM $1.78 $148 HOLD C$ $2.25 26% 6.0% 33.8% -28% -33% -34% 19% 40%

OTHERS

Vimy Resources Limited VMY-AU TM $0.02 $8 SPEC BUY A$ $0.30 1204% -4.2% -14.8% -45% -52% -65% -56% -56%

Tinka Resources Limited TK-CA KM $0.11 $20 SPEC BUY C$ $1.00 809% 15.8% 0.0% -41% -31% -35% -66% -67%

Wolfden Resources Corp. WLF-CA TG $0.08 $7 SPEC BUY C$ $0.70 775% 0.0% -11.1% -38% -33% -38% -48% -67%

Euro Manganese Inc EMN-AU LH $0.10 $10 SPEC BUY A$ $0.85 750% 0.0% 0.0% -33% -29% NA NA NA

Venturex Resources Limited VXR-AU TM $0.07 $12 SPEC BUY A$ $0.45 543% -6.7% -16.7% -39% -52% -60% -64% -60%

Neo Lithium Corp. NLC-CA RS $0.45 $37 SPEC BUY C$ $2.75 511% 1.1% -16.7% -44% -4% -22% -32% -27%

Salt Lake Potash Limited SO4-AU TM $0.30 $51 SPEC BUY A$ $1.57 423% -15.5% -31.8% -51% -59% -65% -58% -35%

Highfield Resources Limited HFR-AU TM $0.28 $54 SPEC BUY A$ $1.45 418% -23.3% -30.0% -56% -57% -64% -68% -57%

Critical Elements Lithium Corporation CRE-CA RS $0.27 $29 SPEC BUY C$ $1.30 391% 10.4% 0.0% -34% -29% -29% -35% -63%

Regulus Resources Inc REG-CA KM/MP $0.60 $42 SPEC BUY C$ $2.75 358% 0.0% -6.3% -46% -43% -61% -57% -56%

Bacanora Lithium Plc BCN-GB AB $0.16 $40 SPEC BUY GB$ $0.70 352% -11.2% -18.4% -52% -53% -59% -69% -35%

Red River Resources Limited RVR-AU LH $0.05 $15 SPEC BUY A$ $0.20 317% -4.0% -14.3% -52% -64% -71% -72% -69%

Lithium Power International Ltd. LPI-AU RS $0.15 $23 SPEC BUY A$ $0.60 300% 7.1% -23.1% -49% -36% -58% -47% -42%

Osisko Metals Incorporated OM-CA KM $0.27 $31 SPEC BUY C$ $1.00 270% -3.6% -20.6% -44% -32% -54% -55% -48%

Lithium Americas Corp. LAC-CA RS $3.58 $223 SPEC BUY C$ $11.50 221% 6.9% -15.2% -52% -15% -16% -32% -17%

Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. Class A IVN-CA DB $2.28 $1,888 SPEC BUY C$ $6.50 185% 8.6% 0.9% -38% -45% -36% -45% -4%

Clean Teq Holdings Limited CLQ-AU LH $0.13 $55 SPEC BUY A$ $0.35 180% -3.8% -16.7% -49% -48% -60% -67% -67%

Pilbara Minerals Limited PLS-AU LH/RS $0.17 $215 SELL A$ $0.25 52% 0.0% 3.1% -45% -37% -51% -70% -74%

AVERAGE 448% -1.2% -12.9% -45% -40% -50% -55% -50%

19-Mar -20

Target Share pr i ce per fo rmance



20 March 2020 12

Figure 15: P/NAV

Pr i ces cl ose date : 19-Mar -20

Ti ck er Anal y st Pr i ce

Company Stage (Local ) NAVPS Di sc. P/NAV NAVPS P/NAV

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold Road Resources Ltd DEVELOPMENT GOR-AU TM $1.06 $0.86 8% 1.23x $0.95 1.11x

Alexco Resource Corp. DEVELOPMENT AXU-CA KM $1.78 $3.19 6% 0.56x $2.27 0.78x

SilverCrest Metals, Inc. DEVELOPMENT SIL-CA KM $6.91 $3.91 5% 1.77x $9.72 0.71x

MAG Silver Corp. DEVELOPMENT MAG-CA KM $11.73 $24.01 6% 0.49x $23.32 0.50x

Great Bear Resources Ltd. EXPLORATION GBR-CA KM $5.05 $24.01 7% 0.21x $10.79 0.47x

Pure Gold Mining Inc. DEVELOPMENT PGM-CA KM $0.58 $0.87 7% 0.67x $1.28 0.45x

Bluestone Resources Inc. DEVELOPMENT BSR-CA KM $1.31 $1.17 8% 1.12x $3.53 0.37x

Osisko Mining Inc DEVELOPMENT OSK-CA KM $1.98 $6.84 7% 0.29x $5.59 0.35x

Belo Sun Mining Corp. DEVELOPMENT BSX-CA TG $0.43 $0.70 16% 0.61x $1.23 0.35x

Sabina Gold & Silver Corp. DEVELOPMENT SBB-CA KM $1.08 $2.88 6% 0.38x $3.36 0.32x

Falco Resources Ltd. DEVELOPMENT FPC-CA KM $0.18 $1.77 7% 0.10x $0.89 0.20x

Corvus Gold Inc. DEVELOPMENT KOR-CA TG $1.43 $3.23 10% 0.44x $7.40 0.19x

Seabridge Gold Inc DEVELOPMENT SEA-CA DB $11.66 $31.95 5% 0.36x $63.90 0.18x

Marathon Gold Corporation DEVELOPMENT MOZ-CA TG $0.93 $1.56 8% 0.60x $5.39 0.17x

Rubicon Minerals Corporation DEVELOPMENT RMX-CA TG $0.57 $0.87 10% 0.66x $3.85 0.15x

Probe Metals, Inc. EXPLORATION PRB-CA TG $0.72 $1.87 9% 0.39x $8.01 0.09x

Paramount Gold Nevada Corp EXPLORATION PZG-US TG $0.57 $1.87 5% 0.31x $6.49 0.09x

Bear Creek Mining Corporation DEVELOPMENT BCM-CA KM $1.18 $4.07 6% 0.29x $13.76 0.09x

Orezone Gold Corporation DEVELOPMENT ORE-CA KM $0.26 $1.12 7% 0.23x $3.21 0.08x

Troilus Gold Corp. DEVELOPMENT TLG-CA TG $0.53 $0.87 10% 0.61x $8.76 0.06x

NuLegacy Gold Corp. EXPLORATION NUG-CA TG $0.03 $2.56 14% 0.01x $1.11 0.03x

Nighthawk Gold Corp EXPLORATION NHK-CA TG $1.34 $2.56 NA 0.52x NA NA

O3 Mining Inc EXPLORATION OIII-CA TG $1.17 $1.12 5% 1.04x NA NA

Expl orati on Average 0.30x 0.22x

Deve l opment Average 0.61x 0.36x

Group Average 0.56x 0.34x

NON-PRECIOUS METALS

Bacanora Lithium Plc DEVELOPMENT BCN-GB AB £0.16 £0.01 13% 11.83x £0.04 3.47x

Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. Class A DEVELOPMENT IVN-CA DB $2.28 $7.85 10% 0.29x $10.36 0.22x

Osisko Metals Incorporated EXPLORATION OM-CA KM $0.27 $1.05 9% 0.26x $1.54 0.18x

Lithium Americas Corp. DEVELOPMENT LAC-CA RS $3.58 $11.16 12% 0.32x $23.51 0.15x

Salt Lake Potash Limited EXPLORATION SO4-AU TM $0.30 $2.88 6% 0.10x $3.42 0.09x

Neo Lithium Corp. DEVELOPMENT NLC-CA RS $0.45 $2.56 14% 0.18x $6.47 0.07x

Lithium Power International Ltd. DEVELOPMENT LPI-AU RS $0.15 $0.95 11% 0.16x $2.25 0.07x

Tinka Resources Limited EXPLORATION TK-CA KM $0.11 $0.93 10% 0.12x $1.83 0.06x

Critical Elements Lithium Corporation DEVELOPMENT CRE-CA RS $0.27 $2.00 13% 0.13x $6.00 0.04x

Clean Teq Holdings Limited DEVELOPMENT CLQ-AU LH $0.13 $2.15 10% 0.06x $2.84 0.04x

Venturex Resources Limited EXPLORATION VXR-AU TM $0.07 $0.48 12% 0.15x $1.73 0.04x

Euro Manganese Inc EXPLORATION EMN-AU LH $0.10 $3.91 10% 0.03x $4.33 0.02x

Red River Resources Limited EXPLORATION RVR-AU LH $0.05 $0.35 6% 0.14x $3.42 0.01x

Vimy Resources Limited DEVELOPMENT VMY-AU TM $0.02 $0.48 12% 0.05x $1.73 0.01x

Highfield Resources Limited DEVELOPMENT HFR-AU TM $0.28 $1.83 10% 0.15x NA NA

Pilbara Minerals Limited DEVELOPMENT PLS-AU LH/RS $0.17 $0.90 10% 0.18x NA NA

Regulus Resources Inc EXPLORATION REG-CA KM/MP $0.60 $2.81 10% 0.21x NA NA

Wolfden Resources Corp. EXPLORATION WLF-CA TG $0.08 $3.91 NA 0.02x NA NA

Expl orati on Average 0.13x 0.07x

Deve l opment Average 1.34x 0.51x

Group Average 0.80x 0.32x

OVERALL AVERAGE 0.68x 0.33x

Base Normal i zed (5%)



20 March 2020 13

Figure 16: Equity Short Interest (SI)


-1D 30D Avg SI SI Rati o 1mo 3mo 6mo 12mo

(l ocal ) (l ocal ) (Msh) (Msh) (Msh) (Msh) (Msh) (Msh) (Msh)

PRECIOUS

Osisko Mining Inc OSK-CA KM C$ $1.98 1.85 1.22 10.13 15.94 9.40 9.41 5.40 5.64

Seabridge Gold Inc SEA-CA DB C$ $11.66 0.35 0.21 0.88 9.83 0.79 0.77 0.57 0.75

Alexco Resource Corp. AXU-CA KM C$ $1.78 0.66 0.67 2.57 6.34 3.28 nm nm 0.38

Belo Sun Mining Corp. BSX-CA TG C$ $0.43 0.31 0.41 1.68 6.29 1.56 1.39 1.79 0.66

MAG Silver Corp. MAG-CA KM C$ $11.73 0.82 0.61 1.43 6.03 1.30 1.07 1.04 1.54

SilverCrest Metals, Inc. SIL-CA KM C$ $6.91 1.22 0.86 2.72 5.50 2.23 0.54 0.13 0.09

Corvus Gold Inc. KOR-CA TG C$ $1.43 0.08 0.11 0.34 4.29 0.35 0.35 0.47 0.17

Sabina Gold & Silver Corp. SBB-CA KM C$ $1.08 0.71 0.61 0.91 3.28 0.74 0.36 0.46 0.20

Great Bear Resources Ltd. GBR-CA KM C$ $5.05 0.28 0.30 0.31 1.95 0.30 0.31 0.35 0.06

Bluestone Resources Inc. BSR-CA KM C$ $1.31 0.06 0.24 0.78 1.87 0.03 nm 0.02 0.02

Paramount Gold Nevada Corp PZG-US TG C$ $0.57 0.04 0.08 0.15 1.70 0.18 0.17 0.07 0.12

Rubicon Minerals Corporation RMX-CA TG C$ $0.57 0.18 0.08 0.04 1.02 0.03 0.09 0.01 0.01

Nulegacy Gold Corporation NUG-CA TG C$ $0.03 0.68 0.53 0.20 0.93 0.00 0.02 0.08 0.10

Marathon Gold Corporation MOZ-CA TG C$ $0.93 0.38 0.42 0.27 0.79 0.28 0.20 0.57 0.36

Nighthawk Gold Corp. NHK-CA TG C$ $1.34 0.06 0.10 0.06 0.69 0.06 0.05 0.13 0.01

Bear Creek Mining Corporation BCM-CA KM C$ $1.18 0.15 0.19 0.10 0.63 0.01 0.00 0.08 0.02

Pure Gold Mining Inc. PGM-CA KM C$ $0.58 0.16 0.66 0.20 0.43 0.10 0.16 0.26 0.16

Probe Metals, Inc. PRB-CA TG C$ $0.72 0.13 0.09 0.02 0.38 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.01

Troilus Gold Corp. TLG-CA TG C$ $0.53 0.05 0.13 0.06 0.32 0.03 0.08 0.00 0.05

Falco Resources Ltd. FPC-CA KM C$ $0.18 0.23 0.18 0.05 0.26 0.01 0.09 0.05 0.11

Orezone Gold Corporation ORE-CA KM C$ $0.26 0.23 0.48 0.07 0.18 0.15 0.01 0.03 0.01

O3 Mining Inc OIII-CA TG C$ $1.17 0.04 0.06 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.00 nm

#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! nm #VALUE! nm nm nm nm nm nm

Gold Road Resources Ltd GOR-AU TM A$ $1.06 14.34 11.68 nm nm nm nm nm nm

Venturex Resources Limited VXR-AU TM A$ $0.07 0.31 0.25 nm nm nm nm nm nm

OTHER

Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. Class A IVN-CA DB C$ $2.28 1.77 1.52 15.78 17.32 15.31 15.01 14.37 13.34

Lithium Americas Corp. LAC-CA RS C$ $3.58 0.29 0.53 2.75 4.50 2.70 2.72 2.90 2.13

Regulus Resources Inc REG-CA KM/MP C$ $0.60 0.07 0.12 0.05 0.73 0.02 0.04 0.01 0.00

Critical Elements Lithium Corporation CRE-CA RS C$ $0.27 0.32 0.18 0.10 0.63 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.02

Osisko Metals Incorporated OM-CA KM C$ $0.27 0.16 0.20 0.06 0.34 0.08 0.10 0.03 0.02

Neo Lithium Corp. NLC-CA RS C$ $0.45 0.23 0.21 0.04 0.23 0.14 0.06 0.19 0.21

Tinka Resources Limited TK-CA KM C$ $0.11 0.21 0.23 0.04 0.21 0.08 1.25 0.13 0.04

Clean Teq Holdings Limited CLQ-AU LH A$ $0.13 0.48 0.89 nm nm nm nm nm nm

Highfield Resources Limited HFR-AU TM A$ $0.28 0.28 0.20 nm nm nm nm nm nm

Lithium Power International Ltd. LPI-AU RS A$ $0.15 0.08 1.12 nm nm nm nm nm nm

Pilbara Minerals Limited PLS-AU LH/RS A$ $0.17 19.64 16.81 nm nm nm nm nm nm

Red River Resources Limited RVR-AU LH A$ $0.05 0.75 2.76 nm nm nm nm nm nm

Salt Lake Potash Limited SO4-AU TM A$ $0.30 0.38 0.28 nm nm nm nm nm nm

Venturex Resources Limited VXR-AU TM A$ $0.07 0.31 0.25 nm nm nm nm nm nm

19-Mar -20

Company Ti ck er Anal y st CcySI Vo l ume

Pr i ceCur rent SI Hi stor i c Shor t Interest

Source: FactSet


20 March 2020 14

Commodity Metrics

Figure 17: Gold:Silver Ratio Statistics

Time Period <55:1 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75:1 Average Max Min

Last 2 Years 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 84.1 93.3 75.8

Last 5 Years 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 26.8% 64.2% 78.0 93.3 65.7

Last 10 Years 19.7% 7.3% 11.0% 12.8% 16.8% 32.4% 67.8 93.3 31.7

Last 15 Years 26.1% 11.7% 14.4% 11.2% 13.2% 23.5% 64.8 93.3 31.7

Last 20 years 20.2% 15.8% 16.8% 13.2% 14.3% 19.6% 64.7 93.3 31.7

Last 30 Years 17.7% 13.5% 11.9% 10.6% 18.1% 28.1% 67.6 99.7 31.7

Since 1970 42.5% 9.2% 8.5% 9.1% 13.4% 17.3% 57.4 99.7 14.0

Since 1950 58.9% 6.6% 6.1% 6.5% 9.6% 12.4% 50.9 99.7 14.0

Gold/Silver Ratio Statistics

% Time Ratio Spent:

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Canaccord Genuity estimates

Figure 18: Gold:Silver Ratio Statistics

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

Gold:Silver Ratio (10Y Trailing)

Current ratio:

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.


20 March 2020 15

Figure 19: FOMC Rate Change Probabilities

Target Rate 0.25%

Effective Rate 0.25%

Implied Overnight Rate 0.12%

Probability of 25

Bps Hike (Cut)

Implied Rate

Hike (Cut)

Implied

Future Rate

Current 20-Mar-20 -4% 0% 0%

-1 Day 19-Mar-20 -6% -0.02% 0.13%

-1 Week 13-Mar-20 -10% -0.97% 0.13%

-1 Month 20-Feb-20 -23% -0.07% 1.51%

Current FOMC Rates

Rate Change Probabilities - 03/18/2020 Meeting

As of (Date)



20 March 2020 16

Figure 20: Gold ETF Holdings and Gold Price

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1/1/2015 1/1/2016 1/1/2017 1/1/2018 1/1/2019

Go

ld P

rice

(US$

/oz)

Cu

mu

lati

ve H

old

ings

(to

nn

es)

Gold ETF Holdings Gold Price



20 March 2020 17

Figure 21: COMEX Net-Longs and Gold Prices

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

1/1/2015 1/1/2016 1/1/2017 1/1/2018 1/1/2019 1/1/2020

Cu

mu

lati

ve H

old

ings

& G

old

Pri

ce

Comex Non-Com Net Long (cumulative holdings, tonnes) Gold Price (US$/oz)



20 March 2020 18

Appendix: Important Disclosures

Analyst Certification

Each authoring analyst of Canaccord Genuity whose name appears on the front page of this research hereby certifies that (i) therecommendations and opinions expressed in this research accurately reflect the authoring analyst’s personal, independent andobjective views about any and all of the designated investments or relevant issuers discussed herein that are within such authoringanalyst’s coverage universe and (ii) no part of the authoring analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, relatedto the specific recommendations or views expressed by the authoring analyst in the research, and (iii) to the best of the authoringanalyst’s knowledge, she/he is not in receipt of material non-public information about the issuer.

Analysts employed outside the US are not registered as research analysts with FINRA. These analysts may not be associatedpersons of Canaccord Genuity LLC and therefore may not be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

Sector Coverage

Individuals identified as “Sector Coverage” cover a subject company’s industry in the identified jurisdiction, but are not authoringanalysts of the report.

Investment RecommendationDate and time of first dissemination: March 20, 2020, 08:03 ETDate and time of production: March 20, 2020, 08:03 ET

Distribution of Ratings:

Global Stock Ratings (as of 03/20/20)Rating Coverage Universe IB Clients

# % %Buy 503 58.62% 54.67%Hold 216 25.17% 40.28%Sell 21 2.45% 14.29%Speculative Buy 118 13.75% 72.88%

858* 100.0%*Total includes stocks that are Under Review

Canaccord Genuity Ratings System

BUY: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of over 10% during the next 12 months.

HOLD: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of 0-10% during the next 12 months.

SELL: The stock is expected to generate negative risk-adjusted returns during the next 12 months.

NOT RATED: Canaccord Genuity does not provide research coverage of the relevant issuer.

“Risk-adjusted return” refers to the expected return in relation to the amount of risk associated with the designated investment orthe relevant issuer.

Risk Qualifier

SPECULATIVE: Stocks bear significantly higher risk that typically cannot be valued by normal fundamental criteria. Investments inthe stock may result in material loss.

12-Month Recommendation History (as of date same as the Global Stock Ratings table)

A list of all the recommendations on any issuer under coverage that was disseminated during the preceding 12-month periodmay be obtained at the following website (provided as a hyperlink if this report is being read electronically) http://disclosures-mar.canaccordgenuity.com/EN/Pages/default.aspx

Past performance

In line with Article 44(4)(b), MiFID II Delegated Regulation, we disclose price performance for the preceding five years or thewhole period for which the financial instrument has been offered or investment service provided where less than five years. Pleasenote price history refers to actual past performance, and that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future price and/orperformance.

Online Disclosures


20 March 2020 19

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http://disclosures-mar.canaccordgenuity.com/EN/Pages/default.aspx

Up-to-date disclosures may be obtained at the following website (provided as a hyperlink if this report is being read electronically)http://disclosures.canaccordgenuity.com/EN/Pages/default.aspx; or by sending a request to Canaccord Genuity Corp. Research, Attn:Disclosures, P.O. Box 10337 Pacific Centre, 2200-609 Granville Street, Vancouver, BC, Canada V7Y 1H2; or by sending a requestby email to [email protected]. The reader may also obtain a copy of Canaccord Genuity’s policies and procedures regarding thedissemination of research by following the steps outlined above.

General Disclaimers

See “Required Company-Specific Disclosures” above for any of the following disclosures required as to companies referred to inthis report: manager or co-manager roles; 1% or other ownership; compensation for certain services; types of client relationships;research analyst conflicts; managed/co-managed public offerings in prior periods; directorships; market making in equity securitiesand related derivatives. For reports identified above as compendium reports, the foregoing required company-specific disclosurescan be found in a hyperlink located in the section labeled, “Compendium Reports.” “Canaccord Genuity” is the business name usedby certain wholly owned subsidiaries of Canaccord Genuity Group Inc., including Canaccord Genuity LLC, Canaccord Genuity Limited,Canaccord Genuity Corp., and Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Limited, an affiliated company that is 50%-owned by Canaccord GenuityGroup Inc.

The authoring analysts who are responsible for the preparation of this research are employed by Canaccord Genuity Corp. a Canadianbroker-dealer with principal offices located in Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, Montreal, or Canaccord Genuity LLC, a US broker-dealerwith principal offices located in New York, Boston, San Francisco and Houston, or Canaccord Genuity Limited., a UK broker-dealer withprincipal offices located in London (UK) and Dublin (Ireland), or Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Limited, an Australian broker-dealerwith principal offices located in Sydney and Melbourne.

The authoring analysts who are responsible for the preparation of this research have received (or will receive) compensationbased upon (among other factors) the Investment Banking revenues and general profits of Canaccord Genuity. However, suchauthoring analysts have not received, and will not receive, compensation that is directly based upon or linked to one or more specificInvestment Banking activities, or to recommendations contained in the research.

Some regulators require that a firm must establish, implement and make available a policy for managing conflicts of interest arisingas a result of publication or distribution of research. This research has been prepared in accordance with Canaccord Genuity’s policyon managing conflicts of interest, and information barriers or firewalls have been used where appropriate. Canaccord Genuity’s policyis available upon request.

The information contained in this research has been compiled by Canaccord Genuity from sources believed to be reliable, but (withthe exception of the information about Canaccord Genuity) no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by CanaccordGenuity, its affiliated companies or any other person as to its fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness. Canaccord Genuityhas not independently verified the facts, assumptions, and estimates contained herein. All estimates, opinions and other informationcontained in this research constitute Canaccord Genuity’s judgement as of the date of this research, are subject to change withoutnotice and are provided in good faith but without legal responsibility or liability.

From time to time, Canaccord Genuity salespeople, traders, and other professionals provide oral or written market commentary ortrading strategies to our clients and our principal trading desk that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in thisresearch. Canaccord Genuity’s affiliates, principal trading desk, and investing businesses also from time to time make investmentdecisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views expressed in this research.

This research is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any designatedinvestments discussed herein in any jurisdiction where such offer or solicitation would be prohibited. As a result, the designatedinvestments discussed in this research may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions. This research is not, and under nocircumstances should be construed as, a solicitation to act as a securities broker or dealer in any jurisdiction by any person orcompany that is not legally permitted to carry on the business of a securities broker or dealer in that jurisdiction. This material isprepared for general circulation to clients and does not have regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or particularneeds of any particular person. Investors should obtain advice based on their own individual circumstances before making aninvestment decision. To the fullest extent permitted by law, none of Canaccord Genuity, its affiliated companies or any other personaccepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from or relating to any use of the information contained inthis research.

Research Distribution Policy

Canaccord Genuity research is posted on the Canaccord Genuity Research Portal and will be available simultaneously for access byall of Canaccord Genuity’s customers who are entitled to receive the firm's research. In addition research may be distributed by thefirm’s sales and trading personnel via email, instant message or other electronic means. Customers entitled to receive research mayalso receive it via third party vendors. Until such time as research is made available to Canaccord Genuity’s customers as describedabove, Authoring Analysts will not discuss the contents of their research with Sales and Trading or Investment Banking employeeswithout prior compliance consent.

For further information about the proprietary model(s) associated with the covered issuer(s) in this research report, clients shouldcontact their local sales representative.

Short-Term Trade Ideas

Research Analysts may, from time to time, discuss “short-term trade ideas” in research reports. A short-term trade idea offers anear-term view on how a security may trade, based on market and trading events or catalysts, and the resulting trading opportunity


20 March 2020 20

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that may be available. Any such trading strategies are distinct from and do not affect the analysts' fundamental equity rating forsuch stocks. A short-term trade idea may differ from the price targets and recommendations in our published research reports thatreflect the research analyst's views of the longer-term (i.e. one-year or greater) prospects of the subject company, as a result of thediffering time horizons, methodologies and/or other factors. It is possible, for example, that a subject company's common equity thatis considered a long-term ‘Hold' or 'Sell' might present a short-term buying opportunity as a result of temporary selling pressure inthe market or for other reasons described in the research report; conversely, a subject company's stock rated a long-term 'Buy' or“Speculative Buy’ could be considered susceptible to a downward price correction, or other factors may exist that lead the researchanalyst to suggest a sale over the short-term. Short-term trade ideas are not ratings, nor are they part of any ratings system, andthe firm does not intend, and does not undertake any obligation, to maintain or update short-term trade ideas. Short-term tradeideas are not suitable for all investors and are not tailored to individual investor circumstances and objectives, and investors shouldmake their own independent decisions regarding any securities or strategies discussed herein. Please contact your salesperson formore information regarding Canaccord Genuity’s research.

For Canadian Residents:

This research has been approved by Canaccord Genuity Corp., which accepts sole responsibility for this research and its disseminationin Canada. Canaccord Genuity Corp. is registered and regulated by the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada(IIROC) and is a Member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. Canadian clients wishing to effect transactions in any designatedinvestment discussed should do so through a qualified salesperson of Canaccord Genuity Corp. in their particular province or territory.

For United States Persons:

Canaccord Genuity LLC, a US registered broker-dealer, accepts responsibility for this research and its dissemination in the UnitedStates. This research is intended for distribution in the United States only to certain US institutional investors. US clients wishing toeffect transactions in any designated investment discussed should do so through a qualified salesperson of Canaccord Genuity LLC.Analysts employed outside the US, as specifically indicated elsewhere in this report, are not registered as research analysts withFINRA. These analysts may not be associated persons of Canaccord Genuity LLC and therefore may not be subject to the FINRA Rule2241 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by aresearch analyst account.

For United Kingdom and European Residents:

This research is distributed in the United Kingdom and elsewhere Europe, as third party research by Canaccord Genuity Limited,which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. This research is for distribution only to persons who are EligibleCounterparties or Professional Clients only and is exempt from the general restrictions in section 21 of the Financial Services andMarkets Act 2000 on the communication of invitations or inducements to engage in investment activity on the grounds that it is beingdistributed in the United Kingdom only to persons of a kind described in Article 19(5) (Investment Professionals) and 49(2) (High NetWorth companies, unincorporated associations etc) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005(as amended). It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. This material isnot for distribution in the United Kingdom or elsewhere in Europe to retail clients, as defined under the rules of the Financial ConductAuthority.

For Jersey, Guernsey and Isle of Man Residents:

This research is sent to you by Canaccord Genuity Wealth (International) Limited (CGWI) for information purposes and is not tobe construed as a solicitation or an offer to purchase or sell investments or related financial instruments. This research has beenproduced by an affiliate of CGWI for circulation to its institutional clients and also CGWI. Its contents have been approved by CGWIand we are providing it to you on the basis that we believe it to be of interest to you. This statement should be read in conjunctionwith your client agreement, CGWI's current terms of business and the other disclosures and disclaimers contained within thisresearch. If you are in any doubt, you should consult your financial adviser.

CGWI is licensed and regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission, the Jersey Financial Services Commission and theIsle of Man Financial Supervision Commission. CGWI is registered in Guernsey and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Canaccord GenuityGroup Inc.

For Australian Residents:

This research is distributed in Australia by Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Limited ABN 19 075 071 466 holder of AFS Licence No234666. To the extent that this research contains any advice, this is limited to general advice only. Recipients should take intoaccount their own personal circumstances before making an investment decision. Clients wishing to effect any transactions in anyfinancial products discussed in the research should do so through a qualified representative of Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Limited.Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management is a division of Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Limited.

For Hong Kong Residents:

This research is distributed in Hong Kong by Canaccord Genuity (Hong Kong) Limited which is licensed by the Securities and FuturesCommission. This research is only intended for persons who fall within the definition of professional investor as defined in theSecurities and Futures Ordinance. It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class ofpersons. Recipients of this report can contact Canaccord Genuity (Hong Kong) Limited. (Contact Tel: +852 3919 2561) in respect ofany matters arising from, or in connection with, this research.

Additional information is available on request.


20 March 2020 21

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Copyright © Canaccord Genuity Limited. 2020 – Member LSE, authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Copyright © Canaccord Genuity LLC 2020 – Member FINRA/SIPC

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All rights reserved. All material presented in this document, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to CanaccordGenuity Corp., Canaccord Genuity Limited, Canaccord Genuity LLC or Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. None of the material, nor itscontent, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior expresswritten permission of the entities listed above.

None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, reproduced, or distributed to anyother party including by way of any form of social media, without the prior express written permission of the entitieslisted above.


20 March 2020 22

sr. historical p/nav (5% fwd. curve gold) · 2020-03-24 · canaccord genuity is the global capital...

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