spring-ford area school district demographics and enrollment … · 2016-09-01 · conclusion...
TRANSCRIPT
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Spring-Ford Area School District
Demographics and Enrollment Projections
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DEMOGRAPHICS & ENROLLMENT
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Demographics & Enrollment
Population Birth Patterns Current Enrollment Housing Future Enrollment District Facility Profiles
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School District Characteristics
Population Birth Patterns School Enrollment
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Housing Activity
Impacts of Housing and Enrollment Housing Units Built Housing Units Proposed Age Restricted Housing Housing Sales
Image courtesy of aubis.com.au
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District Enrollment Projections
Cohort Progression Model Projected Enrollment Indicators of Projection Change
Image courtesy of oneinabillionconsulting.blogspot.com
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School Profiles
Housing Activity Birth Patterns Live Birth Rates Enrollment and Capacity
Image courtesy of www.cobbk12.org
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School District Characteristics
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School District Characteristics
Montgomery County
Upper Providence Township
LimerickTownship
Royersford Borough
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School District Characteristics
Chester County
Spring City Borough
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Population
50% population increase from 1990‐2000 30% population increase from 2000‐2010 6% population increase from 2010‐2020
Image courtesy of www.telegraph.co.uk
Source: US Census Bureau. 2020 Forecast by MCPC
Population of SFASD Municipalities, 1990-2020
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Live Birth Rates
10% decrease in live births from 2000‐2005 9% decrease in live births from 2005‐2010 10% decrease in live births from 2010‐2012
Source: Pennsylvania Department of Health
Live Births per Municipalities in SFASD
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Live Birth Patterns
82% increase in children ages 0‐4 from 1990‐2000 4% increase in children ages 0‐4 from 2000‐2010
Source: US Census Bureau
Population of Children 1990-2010
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Live Birth Patterns
68% increase in children ages 5‐9 from 1990‐2000 30% increase in children ages 5‐9 from 2000‐2010
Source: US Census Bureau
Population of Children 1990-2010
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Live Birth Patterns
57% increase in children ages 10‐14 from 1990‐2000 49% increase in children ages 10‐14 from 2000‐2010
Source: US Census Bureau
Population of Children 1990-2010
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Live Birth Patterns
28% increase in children ages 15‐19 from 1990‐2000 52% increase in children ages 15‐19 from 2000‐2010
Source: US Census Bureau
Population of Children 1990-2010
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School District Enrollment
Source: Spring-Ford Area School District and Pennsylvania Department of Education
District Enrollment by Grade 2007-2013
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School District Enrollment
Kindergarten enrollment fallen below 10‐year prior enrollment Eventual drop in upper grade levels is expected
460
480
500
520
540
560
580
Kindergarten Enrollment
K
SFASD Kindergarten Enrollment 2007-2013
Source: Spring-Ford Area School District
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Housing Activity
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Impacts of Housing and Enrollment
Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission / US Census Bureau
Average Number of School-Age Children per Housing Unit
Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission / US Census Bureau
Percentage of School-Age Children per Housing Unit
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Impacts of Housing and Enrollment
Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission / US Census Bureau
Single-Family Detached
Multi-Family
Single-Family Attached
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Housing Units Built
Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission / Chester County Planning Commission
Housing Units Built per Municipality and County
Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission / Chester County Planning Commission
Housing Units Built per Municipality and County
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Housing Units Proposed
Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission / Chester County Planning Commission
Existing and Proposed Housing Units in SFASD 2010-2013
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Age-Restricted Housing
Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission / Chester County Planning Commission
Age-Restricted Housing in SFASD
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Housing Sales
Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission / Chester County Planning Commission
Housing Units Sold in 2008-2012
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District Enrollment Projections
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Cohort Progression Model
Source: Pennsylvania Department of Health
Grade Progression Rates in SFASD 2007-2013
Grade Progression Rates fairly consistent Largest increase in Progression Rates from K‐2 Stable Grade Progression Rates with minor decreases
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Projected Enrollment Options
Compares average live births from most recent three years Reflects current trends in birthrates and population Utilizes the lowest birth‐rate average of the past decade
Projected Enrollment – Option 1
OPTION 1
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Projected Enrollment Options
Compares average live births from most recent five years Utilizes broader range in birthrates and population Reflects trends from potential improvement in economy
Projected Enrollment – Option 2
OPTION 2
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Projected Enrollment Options
Compares average live births from beginning of decade Utilizes larger percentage of birthrates and population Reflects trends from previously strong economy
Projected Enrollment – Option 3
OPTION 3
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Projected Enrollment Summaries
Total District Enrollment Projections 2013-2023
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Projected Enrollment Summaries
Elementary School Enrollment Projections
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Projected Enrollment Summaries
5-6-7 Grade Enrollment Projections 8 Grade Enrollment Projections
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Projected Enrollment Summaries
9 Grade Enrollment Projections 10-12 Grade Enrollment Projections
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Indicators of Projection Change
Live birth trends have direct impact on projected enrollments Fluctuations in birth trends apparent six years afterwards
Birth Patterns
Source: Pennsylvania Department of Health
Live Births per Municipalities in SFASD
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Indicators of Projection Change
Housing sales relatively level over the most recent five years Housing sales had minor increase in 2012
Housing Sales
Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
Housing Units Sold in 200-2012
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Indicators of Projection Change
Fluctuations in housing construction have direct impact on expected student enrollment
New construction within the District is on the rise Continued construction trend could impact enrollment decline
Housing Construction
Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission / Chester County Planning Commission
Housing Types – Existing and Forecasted
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School Profiles
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School Profiles
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School Profiles
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School Profiles
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School Profiles
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School Profiles
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School Profiles
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School Profiles
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School Profiles
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School Profiles
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School Profiles
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School Profiles
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Conclusion
Current lull in housing construction, birth rates, and population growth throughout the District
National economic downturn still creating uncertainty, with trends in housing and population in District remaining flat
General decline in elementary school enrollment currently experienced throughout the District
Potential enrollment decline is anticipated in secondary school facilities by the end of the decade
Bad News
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Conclusion
New housing starts are currently proposed in the Upper Providence Township
As housing trends continue to improve, live‐birth rates and population should also trend upward
Oaks Elementary school experienced consistent enrollment growth, in contrast to the general decline in the District’s elementary school enrollment
Good News
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Thank YouTHANK YOU