spinning the election: who is setting the agenda in the uk general election 2015?
TRANSCRIPT
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
Spinning the election: Who is setting
the agenda in the UK general
election 2015? #KingsIpsosMORI
How do the Public Decide? Bobby Duffy Managing Director, Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute
More to play for?
Fewer voters have decided…
Base: 830 British adults 18+ giving a voting intention, 8th -10th February 2015
4 HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR … PARTY, OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
February
2015
81%
62%
54%
48%
18%
35%
45%
50%
April
2010
April
2005
March
1992
Definitely
decided
May change
mind
Don’t
know
Campaigns only getting more important as loyalty falls…
All data points represent > 200 responses
5 DO YOU THINK OF YOURSELF AS A SUPPORTER OF ANY ONE POLITICAL PARTY?
Source: British Social Attitudes
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Pre war
Baby
boomers
Gen X
Gen Y
What do people think influences them?
We’re expecting the TV debates to play a big role…
Base: 1,142, GB adults 18+, 6th – 16th February 2015
7 WHAT WILL INFLUENCE VOTE… VERSUS… WHAT DID INFLUENCE VOTE IN 2010
Source: Ipsos MOR
40
20
16
13
12
8
4
3
30
Leadership debates
Newspapers
Election broadcasts
Social media
Leaflets
Opinion polls
Posters
Telephone calls
None of these
Will influence vote Influenced vote (2010)
34% of 18-24 year olds
…although we admit to less impact from past debates…
8 WHAT WILL INFLUENCE VOTE… VERSUS… WHAT DID INFLUENCE VOTE IN 2010
Base: 1,142, GB adults 18+, 6th – 16th February 2015 Source: Ipsos MOR
40
20
16
13
12
8
4
3
30
18
14
12
2
8
3
3
0.5
52
Leadership debates
Newspapers
Election broadcasts
Social media
Leaflets
Opinion polls
Posters
Telephone calls
None of these
Will influence vote Influenced vote (2010)
…still, quarter of people in
marginal constituencies
said debates influenced vote
Social media increasing access and breaking down
barriers – but bringing down quality of debate?
Base: 1,010 British adults 18+, 8th -10th February 2015
9 TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT SOCIAL MEDIA PLATFORMS SUCH AS FACEBOOK AND TWITTER…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
…are giving a voice to people
who would not normally take
part in political debate
71% 14%
…are breaking down the barriers
between voters and politicians and
political parties
50% 28%
…are making political
debate more divisive than
it used to be
52% 22%
…are making political
debate more superficial than
it used to be
50% 27%
Agree Disagree
A direct engagement tool for politicians…
10
207 MPs
301 PPCs
221 MPs
179 PPCs
49 MPs
103 PPCs
1 MPs
113 PPCs
2 MPs
98 PPCs
But how engaged are MPs?
89 MPs replied to 0
tweets
59,179 from MPs: 28 Jan – 24 Feb
Tim Farron 876 tweets,
93% of them replies
But mainstream media key to social media communication…
11
49674
32954
610
420
350
310
290
210
210
200
190
180
@thei100
@telegraph
@ed_miliband
@uklabour
@ukchange
@david_cameron
@youtube
@mailonline
@dailymirror
@independent
770
240
190
170
130
120
110
110
100
100
@telegraph
@mailonline
@dpjhodges
@mayoroflondon
@piersmorgan
@spectator_ch
@obornetweets
@oklabour
@timesredbox
@spectator
Top accounts mentioned in
discussion about…
…but others do get attention…
12
People are
really bad at
identifying
influences –
analysis can
show what most
associated –
and how
shifting…
In 2005 report, the top four factors related to thinking
immigration is an issue were all newspapers…
14
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index, Jan-Oct 2014
Immigration
Read the Daily Mail
Owner-occupier
Vote Conservative
Read the Daily Express
Read the Sun
Work full-time
Most likely to see as
important issue to Britain
Social classes AB
Read the Guardian
Satisfied with govt
Least likely to see as
important issue to Britain
Cause and effect tricky…
Not surprising when see difference in views…
15 WHAT WOULD YOU SAY IS THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE/OTHER IMPORTANT ISSUES FACING BRITAIN TODAY? IMMIGRATION
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
DailyExpress
Daily Mail
Daily Mirror
DailyTelegraph
TheGuardian
TheIndependent
The Sun
The Times
None ofthese
…but now… politics has displaced/caught up/something?
16
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index, Jan-Oct 2014
Immigration
Vote UKIP
Read the Sun
Vote Conservative
Read Daily Mail
White ethnic group
Aged 65+
Read the Guardian
Degree/post-grad
Vote Labour
Scotland
Aged 18-24
Greater London
Vote Green
Most likely to see as important issue to Britain
Least likely to see as important issue to Britain
Finally, we’re pretty shaky on the facts – susceptible to spin and emotion?
Perils of Perception
5% of the population
are Muslim…
13% of the population
are immigrants…
3% of teenage girls
get pregnant
each year…
…we think
21% are
…we think
24% are
…we think
16% do
“That’ll be a Daily Mail effect”
French
think 31%
(actual 8%)
…Italians
think 30%
(actual 7%)
…Americans
think 24%
(actual 3%)
But we’re far from being the worst…
It’s not them, it’s us…
Not that people are stupid….
2. Social psychology explanations: biases and
heuristics – we remember vivid anecdote, not facts,
and emphasise negative information…
…misperceptions are partly “emotional innumeracy”: our
worries cause our misperceptions, as much as our
misperceptions cause our worries
Two broad schools of thought…
1. People are rationally ignorant: their vote doesn’t affect
anything so why be informed?
We get the campaign we deserve…
Thank you @BobbyIpsosMORI