spectrum management trends & challenges

11 APRIL 2013

© GSMA 2014

Spectrum Management Trends & Challenges

Nepal, 31 July 2014

Joe Guan, Spectrum Policy & Regulatory Affairs Advisor,

Asia Pacific, GSMA

SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE

© GSMA 2014

AGENDA

Mobile broadband trends

Spectrum policy

Spectrum roadmap

Refarming

Digital Dividend

Future mobile spectrum (WRC-15)

How to license new mobile spectrum

SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE

© GSMA 2014

GSMA BY THE NUMBERS

MOBILE BROADBANDTHE TRENDS

SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE

© GSMA 2014

EVOLUTION OF MOBILE TECHNOLOGY

…LEADING TO THE PROGRESSION OF MOBILE SERVICES

VOICETelephony

Messaging

DATAEmail

Browsing

VIDEOYouTube

Conferencing

SMART APPSmMoney

mHealth@

!

LTE

HSPA+HSPA

CDMA, EV-DO, WIMAX, TD-SCDMA

AND OTHER TECHNOLOGIES

EDGEGPRSGSM

LTELong-Term

Evolution

© GSMA 2014

CONTINUED GROWTH IN MOBILE

Source: The Mobile Economy Report 2014, GSMA, February 2014

Global SIM-enabled connections reached 6.9 billion in 2013 and are expected to reach

9.2 billion by 2020 (excluding M2M)

Global subscribers reached 3.4 billion in 2013 and are expected to reach 4.3 billion by 2020

© GSMA 2014

MOBILE DATA ROCKETING

Source: Ericsson mobility report - June 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012

EFFICIENT SPETRUM MANAGEMENT

SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE

© GSMA 2014

SPECTRUM POLICY LANDSCAPE

SPECTRUM

PLANNINGSPECTRUM

MANAGEMENT

SPECTRUM

LICENSING

Band plan

harmonisation

Cross-border

interference

Spectrum

road map

Spectrum

efficiency

Spectrum

sharing

TV white space

Auctions and

cost of access

Licence

obligations

Technology

neutrality

SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE

© GSMA 2014

SPECTRUM LICENSING

A STABLE LICENSING FRAMEWORK FACILITATES INVESTMENT

Establish the licence-renewal

approach two to four years in

advance

Avoid network investment being

postponed, as a result

Publish the renewal criteria, as well

as the terms and conditions to be

applied to the renewed licence

A RENEWAL PROCESS SHOULD BE DEFINED WELL BEFORE LICENCE EXPIRATION

Conduct a public

written consultation

before key

decisions

Facilitate

international

harmonisation

Remove service

and technology

restrictions

Develop a

road map for

spectrum release

Ensure rights to

use spectrum are

clearly specified

SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE

© GSMA 2014

SPECTRUM HARMONISATION MATTERS

ROAMINGharmonised

bands

AFFORDABILITYeconomies

of scale

CHOICEcompetition

MOBILE

SPECTRUM

Brings down the cost of mobile

devices

Enables people to roam

Reduces interference issues

along borders

SCALEbillions of

subscribers

SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE

© GSMA 2014

SPECTRUM ROADMAP: WHY IT MATTERS

A spectrum roadmap is essential to ensure there is enough spectrum

to meet surging demand for mobile services

Pace of mobile technology change is increasing, with decreasing cycle time for

new technology and a corresponding need for increased agility. This increases

the requirement for good planning and sound allocation frameworks

Balance the time to relocate by the incumbents against the costs of delaying

the introduction of new technologies – trade-offs;

Allocate spectrum for new uses in advance of the technology becoming

available so that companies have plenty of time for planning, capital

expenditure and implementation

A spectrum roadmap helps

Government’s forecast future trends and manage its work and risks

Industry with increased certainty about the government’s future allocation plans

and management of radio spectrum.

SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE

© GSMA 2014

SPECTRUM ROADMAP: WHAT IS IN IT?

Key themes for a spectrum roadmap

Emerging challenges and opportunities to radio spectrum management

framework and approach, at least 3 – 5 years into the future

Identify future technological trends and drivers, and assess their impact

on spectrum policy and planning

Spectrum management work programme planned to address the

identified challenges and opportunities

A roadmap is an evolving document, to be updated at least once annually

SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE

© GSMA 2014

SPECTRUM MANAGEMENT CHALLENGES

REFARMING

NEW MOBILE SPECTRUM

WRC-15

DIGITAL DIVIDEND

SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE

© GSMA 2014

WHY REFARM?

Access to new spectrum takes time

Consumer demand is accelerating … fast!

Refarming maximises use of existing spectrum

SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE

© GSMA 2014

TECHNOLOGY NEUTRALITY

Many of the original mobile licences were issued for a specific technology (e.g. GSM or

CDMA) which stops the band being ‘refarmed’ to a more efficient technology (e.g. LTE)

We support a licensing approach that allows any compatible, noninterfering technology

to be used in mobile frequency bands

Technology neutral licences encourage innovation and promote competition, allowing

markets to determine which technologies succeed, to the benefit of consumers

Spectrum allocations for IMT are technology-neutral. IMT technologies including GPRS,

EDGE, UMTS, HSPA, and LTE are standardised for technical coexistence

© GSMA 2014

MIGRATION TREND

One-third of global mobile connections will be 2G-only by 2020,

compared with 67% at the end of 2013.

Source: The Mobile Economy Report 2014, GSMA, February 2014

SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE

© GSMA 2014

REFARMING FOR LTE

Global LTE frequency assignments for commercial launches, as of Sep 2013

MHz Global LTE commercial launches split by

frequency scenarios, as of Sep 2013

Global LTE connections supported

by up to 12 different frequency bands

Source: GSMA Intelligence

SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE

© GSMA 2014

IDENTIFIED SPECTRUM BANDS

Asia Pacific Region

Coverage Bands (<1GHz) Capacity Bands (>1GHz)

20

MHz

824 894

The 850 band: 2x25 MHz

849 869 1920 2170

30

MHz


1980 2110

2300 2400

The 2300 band: 100 MHzThe 900 band: 2x35 MHz

880 915 925 960

10

MHz

703 803


10

MHz

748 758

20

MHz

1710 1880

The1800 band: 2x75 MHz

1785 1805

2500 2690

The 2600 band: 2x70 MHz with 50 MHz unpaired TDD

2570 2620

TDD

SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE

© GSMA 2014

DIGITAL DIVIDEND: APT700 IN ASIA PACIFIC

By allocating the

700MHz band to

mobile, countries have

the potential to

increase GDP impact

by tenfold

A total increase of US

$1trillion across Asia

Pacific by 2020

GSMA Mobile Economy Asia, 2013

SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE

© GSMA 2014

REGIONAL COMMITMENTS

Adopted or leaning towards APT

Band plan

Afghanistan 30M

Australia 23M

Bangladesh 161M

Bhutan 0.7M

Brunei 0.4M

India 1,205M

Indonesia 249M

Japan 127M

Malaysia 29M

Maldives 0.4M

Nepal 30M

Pakistan 190M

Papua New Guinea 7M

Singapore 5M

Sri Lanka 21M

Tonga 0.1

Taiwan 23M

New Zealand 4M

TOTAL 1,890M

Adopted APT Band Plan

Slow Progress

Major issues lie in way of adoption

No information

SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE

© GSMA 2014

APT700 IN LATIN AMERICA

Leaning towards APT Band Plan

Adopted APT Band Plan

Adopted US Band Plan

Colombia

May. 2012

Costa Rica

Mar. 2012

Chile

Feb. 2013

Uruguay

Dec. 2011

Mexico

Sep. 2012

Panama

Oct. 2012

Ecuador

Oct. 2012

Bolivia

Dec. 2012

Argentina

Dec. 2012

Brazil

Feb. 2013

Nicaragua

Venezuela

Apr. 2013

Dominican Rep

Apr. 2013

Adopted or leaning towards APT

Band plan

Brazil 195M

Mexico 117M

Colombia 47M

Argentina 41M

Peru 30M

Venezuela 30M

Chile 17M

Ecuador 16M

Dominican Rep. 10M

Costa Rica 5M

Panama 3M

Uruguay 3M

TOTAL 514M

SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE

© GSMA 2014

CLEARING DIGITAL DIVIDEND SPECTRUM

1. Develop consumer proposition

2. Establish DTT branding and conformance regime

3. Develop communications plan

4. Plan and deploy DTT network

5. Establish receiver specifications and costs.

1. Decide on technology and standards

2. Implement licensing framework

3. Manage radio spectrum and coordination matters

1. Develop DSO policy and legal framework

2. Establish plan for ASO

3. Develop funding policy

4. Establish principles for Help Scheme

Source: Plum and Farncombe 2013

Government

Regulators

Industry

SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE

© GSMA 2014

MORE DATA = MORE SPECTRUM

On average 600-800MHz additional

mobile spectrum needed by 2020

globally

Takes into account increasingly

spectrum efficient technology (e.g. LTE-

Advanced), network architectures (e.g.

cell splitting & small cells) and Wi-Fi

offload

This is in addition to the bands that are

already allocated to mobile an should be

licensed to meet data demand

More spectrum required to avoid a

network congestion and higher

consumer prices

New bands must be harmonised

globally, or at least regionally, to

create a wide range of low cost

equipment and enable roaming

Coverage and capacity bands

required for fast, low-cost, ubiquitous

services

Low frequency bands essential for

widespread mobile broadband access

including rural area

SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE

© GSMA 2014

SPECTRUM ESTIMATES FROM WP5D

Source Australia China India Russia US GSMA

Doc. 5D/ 66 256 170 118 63 242

Estimated year Until 2020 2015, 2020 2017, 2020 2020 Until 2014 2020

Spectrum

requirements

Total requirement

of 1,081 MHz

(Additional

requirement of

300 MHz by 2020)

Total

requirement of

570-690 MHz

(by 2015)

Total

requirement of

1,490-1,810

MHz

(by 2020)

Additional

requirement of

300 MHz by

2017

Additional

requirement of

another 200 MHz

by 2020

Total

requirement of

1,065 MHz

(Additional

requirement of

385 MHz by

2020)

Additional

requirement of

275 MHz by

2014

Total

requirement of

1,600-1,800 MHz

Methodology Using an original

methodology

Using the

methodology in

Rec. ITU-R

M.1768-1

Using an original

methodology

Using an original

methodology

Using an original

methodology

Using a new

methodology to

complement the

methodology in

Rec. ITU-R

M.1768-1

AWG input documents:

Japan (AWG-14/INP-35): 1825 MHz by 2020

Korea (AWG-14/INP-63): 1340-1960 MHz by 2020

SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE

© GSMA 2014

NEED TO MEET LONG-TERM DATA DEMAND

Allocations at WRC-15 mostly won’t be

licensed until 2020-2025 when data

demand will be much higher

– The ITU assumes a 44-80x increase in

mobile data between 2010 and 2020

Admins won’t need to license spectrum

allocated at WRC-15 until they are ready

– Existing services can continue & be

protected through coordination and

regulatory conditions

– BUT if new bands aren’t allocated then

admins will struggle to react to growing

data traffic

Admins not planning to use WRC-15 bands

in near-term will still benefit from lower

cost equipment for their later roll-outs

– Early movers generate economies of

scale so countries that deploy later

benefit from cheaper smartphones and

base stations etc..

– Economies of scale only generated

through the identification of harmonized

bands at WRC-15

SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE

© GSMA 2014

NEW BANDS FOR MOBILE

RADIO SPECTRUM: IDENTIFIED MOBILE BANDS

1.8G

Hz

2.1G

Hz

2.6G

Hz

450–

470M

Hz

Dig

ital D

ivid

end

(700

/800

MH

z)

900M

Hz

2.3G

Hz

3.4–

3.6

GH

z

470–694/8

MHz

3.4–3.8

GHzCANDIDATE BANDS

FOR WRC-15

2.7–2.9 GHz1427

–

1518

MHz

3.8–4.2

GHz

1300

–

1400

MHz

GSMA had agreed widespread mobile

operator support for 4 new mobile

allocations

– Sub-700MHz UHF (470-694/8MHz)

– 2.7-2.9GHz

– L-Band (1300-1518MHz)

– C-Band (3.4-4.2GHz)

These bands can be harmonised

globally to drive lower cost

equipment/services

– Pursuing other bands risks creating a

fragmented market negatively impacting

equipment choice, price, roaming ability

and could create international interference

issues

SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE

© GSMA 2014

HOW TO ASSIGN NEW SPECTRUM

… when there is competition for limited spectrum resources

… when demand is expected to exceed supply

AUCTIONS ARE

AN ECONOMICALLY EFFICIENT WAY

TO ALLOCATE SPECTRUM

AUCTIONS ARE NOT

THE ONLY OPTION AVAILABLE TO GOVERNMENT

FOR SPECTRUM ALLOCATION

Consultation with mobile operators and other

stakeholders is essential

AUCTIONS SHOULD

REFLECT THE LONG-TERM ECONOMIC VALUE OF THE

SPECTRUM, NOT MAXIMISE SHORT-TERM REVENUE FOR

GOVERNMENTS

Auctions should be fair, transparent and

designed for the specific market

circumstances

SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE

© GSMA 2014

SETTING AN AUCTION RESERVE

• Setting a realistic reserve price is complex but essential to ensure a minimum is paid

• BUT this minimum should reflect the socio-economic value of the spectrum NOT

just maximize tax revenues

• If too low it may encourage frivolous & speculative bidding

• If too high it creates several risks:

• Discourage participation by operators & serious potential new entrants

• Leads to non-optimal allocations or unsold spectrum depriving the public of new

services

• Minimise network investment leading to low quality, expensive services as operators

try to recoup their spectrum investment

• Reserve pricing should be set as low as possible to let the market determine the value

• Prices should be based on local market conditions (e.g. ARPU, GDP, competition etc.)

• International benchmarks are useful but local conditions more important

• Once agreed it should be subject to public consultation to ensure the auction design

is fair, transparent and appropriate for the specific market circumstances

spectrum management trends & challenges

Documents