species, people and networks
DESCRIPTION
An introduction to the species-people correlation, species, people and networks, ramorum leaf blight, sudden oak death, complex networks, network epidemiology, network theory, scale-free degree distribution, epidemic threshold and final size, clustering coefficient, stream macro-invertebrates, Phytophthora ramorum, Sudden Oak DeathTRANSCRIPT
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Species, people and networks
Marco Pautasso 1 March 2010
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Some recent studies of the spp-people correlation
World wilderness map from: UNEP-WCMC World Atlas of Biodiversity, GIS analysis by R. Lesslie (ANU), method developed for the Australian Heritage Commission
Balmfordet al. (2001) ScienceReal et al.
(2003) J Biogeog
McKinney (2003) Biol Cons
Vazquez & Gaston (2006) Biodiv & Cons
Chown et al. (2003) Ecol Appl
Luck (2007)J Biogeog
Araujo(2003) GEB
Hunter & Jonzon(1993) CB
Ding et al. (2006) J Biogeog
Moreno-Rueda &
Pizarro (2008) Ecol Res
Diniz-Filho et al. (2006) Acta Oecol.
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n = 2877, r2 = 0.18, y = 1.75+ 0.22x, p < 0.0001
1
2
3
4
2 3 4 5 6 7
log10 human population size (n)
log1
0 vas
cula
r pla
nt s
pp ri
chne
ss (n
)
A positive species-people correlation for vascular plants in US counties
Data from the Synthesis of the North American Flora, Ohio and Virginia not included
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1. Sampling bias?
from: Pautasso & McKinney (2007) Conservation Biology
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US counties with (•) or without (o) Universities and/or Botanical Gardens
from: Pautasso & McKinney (2007) Conservation Biology
• N = 692, r2 = 0.13, y = 2.15 (SE = 0.08) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001
o N = 2187, r2 = 0.10, y = 2.18 (SE = 0.05) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001
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From: Hufnagel et al. (2005) PNAS (air) & Kaluza et al. (2010) Interface (sea)
Plant (and botanist) movements in a globalized world
passengers
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NATURAL
TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIAL
food webs
airport networks
cell metabolism
neural networks
railway networks
ant nests
WWWInternet
electrical power grids
software mapscomputing
gridsE-mail
patterns
innovation flows
telephone calls
co-authorship nets
family networks
committees
sexual partnerships DISEASE
SPREAD
Food web of Little Rock Lake, Wisconsin, US
Internet structure
Network pictures from: Newman (2003) SIAM Review
HIV spread
network
Epidemiology is just one of the many applications of network theory
urban road networks
modified from: Jeger et al. (2007) New Phytologist
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step 1
step 2
step 3
step n
…
Simple model of infection spread (e.g. P. ramorum) in a network
pt probability of infection transmission
pp probability of infection persistence
… 100node 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (in review) Phytopathology
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0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
probability of transmission
prob
abili
ty o
f per
sist
ence
localrandomsmall-worldscale-free (two-way)scale-free (uncorrelated)scale-free (one way)
Lower epidemic threshold for scale-free networks with positive correlation between in- and out-degree
modified from: Pautasso & Jeger (2008) Ecological Complexity
Epidemic does not develop Epidemic develops
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Lower epidemic threshold for two-way scale-free networks (unless networks are sparsely connected)
N replicates = 100; error bars are St. Dev.; different letters show sign. different means
at p < 0.05
from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2009) JTB
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Correlation of epidemic final size with out-degree of starting node increases with network connectivity
N replicates = 100; error bars are St. Dev.; different letters show sign. different means at p < 0.05
from: Pautasso et al. (2010) Ecol Compl
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from: Cushman & Meentemeyer (2008) Journal of Ecology
Multi-scale correlation of human presence and Phytophthora ramorum disease incidence
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Sudden Oak Death in California
from Desprez-Loustau et al. (2007) Trends in Ecology & Evolution
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Source: United States Department of Agriculture, 2004Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Plant Protection and Quarantine
Trace forward/back zipcode
Positive (Phytophthora ramorum) site
Hold released
2. Species introductions?
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Spatial analysis of P. ramorum reported cases in England/Wales: garden/nurseries vs. semi-natural environment
O12(r) v
alue
s
0.00
0.06
0.12
0.18
0.24
0.30f: Garden/Nursery - SNE 04 - 05
Distance (km)0 2 4 6 8 10
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4g: Garden/Nursery - SNE 05 - 06
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
Distance (km)0 2 4 6 8 10
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20d: SNE - Garden/Nursery 05 - 06
c: SNE - Garden/Nursery 04 - 05
from: Xu et al. (2009) Ecography
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from: Harwood et al. (2009) Ecological Modelling
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Ants and people in Europe
from Schlick-Steiner et al. (2008) Journal of Biogeography
(a)y = -0.19 + 0.29x, s.s.e. = 0.03, r2 = 0.42, p < 0.0001
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0
log10 human population size (n)
log 1
0 ant
spec
ies r
ichn
ess (
n)
(b)y = 0.67 + 0.22x, s.s.e = 0.02, r2 = 0.30, p < 0.0001
1.0
2.0
3.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
log10 country area (km2)
log 1
0 ant
spec
ies r
ichn
ess (
n)
(c)y = -1.00 + 0.87x, s.s.e. = 0.13, r2 = 0.56, p < 0.0001
1.0
2.0
3.0
2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
log10 plant species richness (n)
log 1
0 ant
spec
ies r
ichn
ess (
n)
(d)y = 0.65 - 0.27x, s.s.e. = 0.64, r2 = 0.02, p = 0.67
1.0
2.0
3.0
-4.6 -4.5 -4.4 -4.3 -4.2
Boltzmann transformed temperature (1/kT)
log 1
0 ant
spe
cies
rich
ness
(n)
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b from: http://www.worldmapper.org/
a, c & d: from: Pautasso & Parmentier (2007) Botanica Helvetica
(c)
(d)
(a) (c)
log 1
0sp
pri
chne
ss (n
)
(b) Size of countries reflects n of botanic gardens
Living collections of the world’s botanical gardens
(d)
(yr)
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from: Golding et al. (2010) Annals of Botany
Living collections of the world’s botanic gardens (2)
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3. Active conservation?
Photos of veteran trees courtesy of G. Bortolotti; Map of human population density from Swiss Federal Statistical Office
Celtis australis, San Gimignano
Quercus robur, Udine
Castanea sativa,St. Alfio, Sicily
Quercus cerris,Amatrice, Latium
Cupressussempervirens, Forli
people / km2
no information
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(c)y = -2.03 + 0.49x, r2 = 0.15, p < 0.0001
0
1
2
4 5 6 7log10 province human population size
log1
0 vet
eran
tree
spec
ies
(c)
y = -1.70 + 0.47x, r2 = 0.69, p < 0.0001
0
1
2
4 5 6 7 8
log10 region human population size
log1
0 vet
eran
tree
spec
ies
(b)y = -2.98 + 0.68x, r2 = 0.13, p < 0.0001
0
1
2
4 5 6 7log10 province human population size
log 1
0 vet
eran
tree
indi
vidu
als
(b)
y = -1.99 + 0.58x, r2 = 0.56, p < 0.00010
1
2
3
4 5 6 7 8
log10 region human population size
log1
0 vet
eran
tree
indi
vidu
als
(c)(a)
(b)
a & b: abundance, c & d: spp richness, a & c: regions; b & d: provinces; from: Pautasso & Chiarucci (2008) Annals of Botany
(d)
Ancient trees in Italy’s regions and provinces
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from: Pautasso & Dinetti (2009) Environmental Conservation
Birds, people and protected areas in Italy’s regions
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from: Pautasso & Zotti (2009) Biodiversity and Conservation
Macrofungi and human population in Italy’s regions
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Plant Health, Global Change and Landscape Management
Pautasso et al. (2010) Biological Reviews
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Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees
Pautasso (2009) Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution & Systematics
Pinus pinea (Vendramin et al. (2008) Evolution)
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Structural change in the international horticultural industry: implications for plant health
Dehnen-Schmutz et al. (2010) Scientia Horticulturae
(trade in ornamental plants)
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MacLeod et al. (2010) Food Security
Plant health and stakeholder engagement
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from Pautasso & Fontaneto (2008) Ecological Applications
Pict
ures
from
http
://bi
okey
s.be
rkel
ey.e
du
What about stream macro-invertebrates (may-, stone- & caddis-flies)?
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from Pecher et al. (2010) Basic and Applied Ecology
Scale-dependence of the correlation between species richness of stream macro-invertebrates and people
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from: Chiari et al. (2010) J Animal Ecology
Locally, the spp-people correlation tends to be negative
birds in Florence
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from Steck & Pautasso (2008) Acta Oecologica
Grasshoppers and people in Europe
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from Cantarello et al. (2010) Naturwissenschaften
Sampling effort explains the correlation between species richness of Orthoptera and people in Italy
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from: Lonsdale et al. (2008) European Journal of Forest Research
Random sample of 100 papers per year on ‘species richness’ in WOS (1991-2004)
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Acknowledgements
Claude Steck, Birmensdorf
Mike Jeger, Silwood
Ingrid Parmentier,
Bruxelles
Kevin Gaston,
Sheffield
Diego Fontaneto,Stockholm
Birgit & Florian Schlick-Steiner, Innsbruck
Mike McKinney, Knoxville
Lorenzo Marini, Padova
Alessandro Chiarucci,
Siena
Susanne Fritz, Copenhagen
Ottmar Holdenrieder, Zurich
Peter Weisberg, Reno
Glen Powell, South Ken
Mathieu Moslonka-Lefebvre, Paris
Tom Harwood, Canberra
Caroline Pecher, Bozen
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ReferencesJokimäki J, Kaisanlahti-Jokimäki M-L, Suhonen J, Clergeau P, Pautasso M & Fernández-Juricic E (2011) Merging wildlife community ecology and animal behavioral ecology for a better urban landscape planning. Landscape & Urban Planning 100: 383-385Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Finley A, Dorigatti I, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Harwood T, Jeger MJ, Xu XM, Holdenrieder O & Pautasso M (2011) Networks in plant epidemiology: from genes to landscapes, countries and continents. Phytopathology 101: 392-403Pautasso M, Böhning-Gaese K, Clergeau P, Cueto VR, Dinetti M, Fernandez-Juricic E, Kaisanlahti-Jokimäki ML, Jokimäki J, McKinney ML, Sodhi NS, Storch D, Tomialojc L, Weisberg PJ, Woinarski J, Fuller RA & Cantarello E (2011) Global macroecology of bird assemblages in urbanized and semi-natural ecosystems. Global Ecology & Biogeography 20: 426-436Barbosa AM, Fontaneto D, Marini L & Pautasso M (2010) Is the human population a large-scale indicator of the species richness of ground beetles? Anim Cons 13: 432-441Barbosa AM, Fontaneto D, Marini L & Pautasso M (2010) Positive regional species–people correlations: a sampling artefact or a key issue for sustainable development? Animal Conservation 13: 446-447Cantarello E, Steck CE, Fontana P, Fontaneto D, Marini L & Pautasso M (2010) A multi-scale study of Orthoptera species richness and human population size controlling for sampling effort. Naturwissenschaften 97: 265-271Chiari C, Dinetti M, Licciardello C, Licitra G & Pautasso M (2010) Urbanization and the more-individuals hypothesis. Journal of Animal Ecology 79: 366-371Dehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2010) Structural change in the international horticultural industry: some implications for plant health. ScientiaHorticulturae 125: 1-15Golding J, Güsewell S, Kreft H, Kuzevanov VY, Lehvävirta S, Parmentier I & Pautasso M (2010) Species-richness patterns of the living collections of the world's botanic gardens: a matter of socio-economics? Annals of Botany 105: 689-696MacLeod A, Pautasso M, Jeger M & Haines-Young R (2010) Evolution of the international regulation of plant pests & challenges for future plant health. Food Security 2: 49-70 Pautasso M (2010) Worsening file-drawer problem in the abstracts of natural, medical and social science databases. Scientometrics 85: 193-202Pautasso M & Pautasso C (2010) Peer reviewing interdisciplinary papers. European Review 18: 227-237Pautasso M & Schäfer H (2010) Peer review delay and selectivity in ecology journals. Scientometrics 84: 307-315Pautasso M, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Pietravalle S, Salama N, Jeger MJ, Lange E & Hehl-Lange S (2010) Plant health and global change – some implications for landscape management. Biological Reviews 85: 729-755Pautasso M, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Jeger MJ (2010) The number of links to and from the starting node as a predictor of epidemic size in small-size directed networks. Ecological Complexity 7: 424-432 Pautasso M, Xu XM, Jeger MJ, Harwood T, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Pellis L (2010) Disease spread in small-size directed trade networks: the role of hierarchical categories. Journal of Applied Ecology 47: 1300-1309Pecher C, Fritz S, Marini L, Fontaneto D & Pautasso M (2010) Scale-dependence of the correlation between human population and the species richness of stream macroinvertebrates. Basic Applied Ecology 11: 272-280Harwood TD, Xu XM, Pautasso M, Jeger MJ & Shaw M (2009) Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and P. kernoviae in the UK. Ecological Modelling 220: 3353-3361 Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Disease spread in small-size directed networks: epidemic threshold, correlation between links to and from nodes, and clustering. Journal of Theoretical Biology 260: 402-411
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References (bis)Pautasso M (2009) Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Systematics and Evolution 11: 157-189Pautasso M & Dinetti M (2009) Avian species richness, human population and protected areas across Italy’s regions. Environmental Conservation 36: 22-31Pautasso M & Powell G (2009) Aphid biodiversity is correlated with human population in European countries. Oecologia 160: 839-846Pautasso M & Zotti M (2009) Macrofungal taxa and human population in Italy's regions. Biodiversity & Conservation 18: 473-485Xu XM, Harwood TD, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Spatio-temporal analysis of an invasive plant pathogen (Phytophthora ramorum) in England and Wales. Ecography 32: 504-516Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2008) Comparative epidemiology of zoosporic plant pathogens. European Journal of Plant Pathology 122: 111-126Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2008) Plant disease and global change – the importance of long-term data sets. New Phytologist 177: 8-11Lonsdale D, Pautasso M & Holdenrieder O (2008) Wood-decaying fungi in the forest: conservation needs and management options. European Journal of Forest Research 127: 1-22 Pautasso M & Chiarucci A (2008) A test of the scale-dependence of the species abundance-people correlation for veteran trees in Italy. Annals of Botany 101: 709-715 Pautasso M & Fontaneto D (2008) A test of the species-people correlation for stream macro-invertebrates in European countries. Ecological Applications 18: 1842-1849Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2008) Epidemic threshold and network structure: the interplay of probability of transmission and of persistence in directed networks. Ecological Complexity 5: 1-8Pautasso M & Weisberg PJ (2008) Density-area relationships: the importance of the zeros. Global Ecology and Biogeography 17: 203-210Schlick-Steiner B, Steiner F & Pautasso M (2008) Ants and people: a test of two mechanisms behind the large-scale human-biodiversity correlation for Formicidae in Europe. J of Biogeography 35: 2195-2206Steck CE & Pautasso M (2008) Human population, grasshopper and plant species richness in European countries. Acta Oecologica 34: 303-310Jeger MJ, Pautasso M, Holdenrieder O & Shaw MW (2007) Modelling disease spread and control in networks: implications for plant sciences. New Phytologist 174: 179-197 Pautasso M (2007) Scale-dependence of the correlation between human presence and plant/vertebrate species richness. Ecology Letters 10: 16-24 Pautasso M & McKinney ML (2007) The botanist effect revisited: plant species richness, county area and human population size in the US. Conservation Biology 21, 5: 1333-1340 Pautasso M & Parmentier I (2007) Are the living collections of the world’s botanical gardens following species-richness patterns observed in natural ecosystems? BotanicaHelvetica 117: 15-28 Pautasso M & Gaston KJ (2006) A test of the mechanisms behind avian generalized individuals-area relationships. Global Ecology and Biogeography 15: 303-317 Pautasso M & Gaston KJ (2005) Resources and global avian assemblage structure in forests. Ecology Letters 8: 282-289Pautasso M, Holdenrieder O & Stenlid J (2005) Susceptibility to fungal pathogens of forests differing in tree diversity. In: Forest Diversity and Function (Scherer-Lorenzen M, Koerner Ch & Schulze D, eds.). Ecol. Studies Vol. 176. Springer, Berlin, pp. 263-289 Holdenrieder O, Pautasso M, Weisberg PJ & Lonsdale D (2004) Tree diseases and landscape processes: the challenge of landscape pathology. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 19, 8: 446-452