spatial optimization of restoration in fire prone forests...
TRANSCRIPT
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Spatial Optimization of Restoration in Fire Prone Forests:
Tradeoffs and Production Possibility Frontiers
Kevin Vogler
Alan Ager, Michelle Day, Stuart Brittain
4 / 27 / 2015
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Introduction Restoration and the USFS Why prioritize treatments? What are PPF curves?
Methods Data inputs LTD Model
Preliminary Findings Tradeoff Curves Evaluating USFS Projects
Future Work
OUTLINE
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USFS AND FOREST RESTORATION
• USFS is currently focusing heavily on restoration • (CFLRP, 4FRI)
• New policy documents call
for a dramatic increase in the scope and scale of treatments
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Multiple goals and landscape conditions complicate the development of restoration projects
FOREST RESTORATION GOALS
?
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QUANTIFYING RESTORATION OBJECTIVES
Blue Mountains Oregon:
• Restoration of dry forests and forest health
• Fire Protection and containment
• Socioeconomic
Restoration of dry forests and forest
health
Socioeconomic Fire protection
and containment
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RESTORATION OBJECTIVES
Restoration of dry forests and forest health: 1. Veg Departure
Fire Protection and containment: Socioeconomic:
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RESTORATION OBJECTIVES
Restoration of dry forests and forest health: 1. Veg Departure 2. Insect and Disease Fire Protection and containment: Socioeconomic
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RESTORATION OBJECTIVES
Restoration of dry forests and forest health: 1. Veg Departure 2. Insect and Disease Fire Protection and containment: 1. Fire Hazard Socioeconomic
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RESTORATION OBJECTIVES
Restoration of dry forests and forest health: 1. Veg Departure 2. Insect and Disease Fire Protection and containment: 1. Fire Hazard 2. WUI Risk Socioeconomic
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RESTORATION OBJECTIVES
Restoration of dry forests and forest health: 1. Veg Departure 2. Insect and Disease Fire Protection and containment: 1. Fire Hazard 2. WUI Risk Socioeconomic 1. Timber Volume
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Can a restoration project achieve all goals?
RESTORATION OBJECTIVES
?
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RESTORATION OBJECTIVES
13 % 100,000 of the “worst” ha
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RESTORATION OBJECTIVES
3.7 %
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LANDSCAPE TREATMENT DESIGNER
http://www.fs.fed.us/wwetac/ltd/
1.Optimal Projects 2.Tradeoffs: PPF curves
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OPTIMAL PROJECTS
5 Years of work:
• 20 Projects • 5,000 ha each
WUI Protection
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OPTIMAL PROJECTS
Insects and disease Departure
Wildfire hazard Thin volume
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PRODUCTION POSSIBILITY FRONTIER CURVES
• Econ Theory • Guns and Butter
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PPF: WUI VS TIMBER
5 Year Program of work: • 20 5,000 ha projects • Range weights from 0-5 • Only treatable lands
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PPF: WUI VS TIMBER
20 Real projects from the Blue Mountains: • 5 from each forest • Weighted to 5k ha size
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Restoration objectives are often not located on the same acres Or project area!
PPF curves can show opportunity costs of different restoration strategies And highlight USFS ability to meet goals
CONCLUSIONS
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FUTURE WORK
1.PPF curves at multiple scales
2.How does PPF curve change with different levels of investment?
3.What is opportunity cost of Project Areas?
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FUTURE WORK
1.PPF curves at multiple scales
2.How does PPF curve change with different levels of investment?
3.What is opportunity cost of Project Areas?
Increased investment in restoration
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FUTURE WORK
1.PPF curves at multiple scales
2.How does PPF curve change with different levels of investment?
3.What is opportunity cost of Project Areas?
W
Wallowa-Whitman NF: 42 Project Areas
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QUESTIONS?
LTD Website + Online Tutorial: http://www.fs.fed.us/wwetac/ltd/