Spatial Aspects of the US Second Demographic Transition Spatial Aspects of the US Second Demographic Transition and the 2004 Presidential Electionsand the 2004 Presidential Elections

Ron Lesthaeghe *+, Lisa Neidert*, Didier Willaert**Ron Lesthaeghe *+, Lisa Neidert*, Didier Willaert**

*U Michigan, +UC Irvine,** VU Brussels

1. Two essential dimensions of US family formation patterns emerge both at level of states and counties:

-- There is a typical SDT dimension, characterized by postponement of marriage, rise of cohabitation, tolerance for abortion and same sex households, postponement of first births, sub-replacement fertility, parenthood within cohabiting unions.

-- And there is the persistence of an older pattern, reflecting a high vulnerability of young women and children, and characterized by high teenage fertility (whites included), high single motherhood and divorce, large proportions of children being looked after by grandparents, higher levels of poverty.

2. There is a striking NEGATIVE correlation between the SDT dimension and the vote for G.W.Bush (2000,2004), which is RESISTANT to controls (partial corr.) for structural variables ( hhld income, education, female econ. status, urbanization), ethnic variables (black, white, hispanic) or religious affiliations (Catholic, Evangelical & Mormon).

3.The best predictor of the % vote pro Bush is by far the SDT-dimension, except in a set of Southern counties where older social & ethnic factors continued to play more important roles.

MAPS : blue is advanced on SDT-map, and low on map for vulnerability young women & children . Measured in Standard Deviations from counties’ mean. Cartograms depict results proportional to county population size .

Large map: red-blue cut off is mean % for counties;Small map : cut off is 50%