Space WeatherSpace WeatherSTEREO SWGSTEREO SWG

Hamburg 2005Hamburg 2005

D.A. BieseckerD.A. Biesecker

NOAA/SECNOAA/SEC

AgendaAgenda Current Beacon StatusCurrent Beacon Status Presentations on ‘operational’ use of beaconPresentations on ‘operational’ use of beacon

Data ViewersData Viewers BerghmansBerghmans PickPick Russell?Russell?

Automated Event DetectionAutomated Event Detection Robbrecht – CME’sRobbrecht – CME’s Podladchikova – EUV dimmingsPodladchikova – EUV dimmings

Modelling effortsModelling efforts Biesecker – Geometric LocalizationBiesecker – Geometric Localization

Others?Others? Break?Break? S/WAVES Space Weather Plan – M. KaiserS/WAVES Space Weather Plan – M. Kaiser MuSTAnG Space Weather Muon Telescope – F. JansenMuSTAnG Space Weather Muon Telescope – F. Jansen Round Table DiscussionRound Table Discussion

Review SWx ideas already known (on STEREO SWx website)Review SWx ideas already known (on STEREO SWx website) What have we missed?What have we missed? SWx chapter of STEREO bookSWx chapter of STEREO book Other Topics?Other Topics?

OutlineOutline

Ground station network coming alongGround station network coming along Turbo licensing issue almost resolvedTurbo licensing issue almost resolved

s/c beacon mode telecom testings/c beacon mode telecom testing Software to decode Viterbi and Turbo Software to decode Viterbi and Turbo

encoded data in work (Phil Karn)encoded data in work (Phil Karn)

SP

ICE

ker

nel

sSpace Weather Beacon Space Weather Beacon

ProcessingProcessingAPL MOC

Packet Handling Application

Instrument Specific Applications

Display, Serve, Archive, Browse

S/C Transfer Frame Handling Application

NOAA & Public

SSC

S/WAVES

SECCHI(NRL) “C” to assemble image; IDL to decompress

IMPACT

(UCB) “C” for MAG, SWEA, STE

(Caltech) SEP

(UNH) IDL code for PLASTIC

(UCLA) coordinate transforms for MAG

Real-Time

Off-line

NOAA Antenna Partners

Real-Tim

e and Off-line

PLASTIC

SWAVESlib IDL package

Ground Station PartnersGround Station Partners Primary network – gives us the 24/7 Primary network – gives us the 24/7

coverage we needcoverage we need NOAA and CNES (France) are signed onNOAA and CNES (France) are signed on

Letters in handLetters in hand Toulouse (1.5E); Wallops (75.5W); Fairbanks Toulouse (1.5E); Wallops (75.5W); Fairbanks

(147.8W)(147.8W) CRL (Japan) is likelyCRL (Japan) is likely

NOAA has made a formal request through NOAA has made a formal request through International Affairs OfficeInternational Affairs Office

We’d like redundancy where possibleWe’d like redundancy where possible Probable is RAL (UK)Probable is RAL (UK) Possible is USAF (California), ACRES (Australia)Possible is USAF (California), ACRES (Australia) Others?Others?

Other detailsOther details

Beacon telemetry to begin after Beacon telemetry to begin after heliospheric orbits achievedheliospheric orbits achieved

Tested basic functional transfer of Tested basic functional transfer of beacon telemetry packets from beacon telemetry packets from NOAA/SEC (representing ground NOAA/SEC (representing ground stations) to SSCstations) to SSC Based on ACE real-time solar wind Based on ACE real-time solar wind

telemetry systemtelemetry system ICD between NASA SSC and NOAA ICD between NASA SSC and NOAA

SEC almost finished?SEC almost finished?

TurboTurbo

Telemetry encoding options in the beacon Telemetry encoding options in the beacon mode are rate 1/6 Viterbi, rate ½ Viterbi, mode are rate 1/6 Viterbi, rate ½ Viterbi, and Turbo encoding.and Turbo encoding.

Turbo encoding (decoding) improves ETurbo encoding (decoding) improves Ebb/N/Noo

Issues regarding Turbo were licensing and Issues regarding Turbo were licensing and cost.cost. NOAA and France Telecom agree on wording of NOAA and France Telecom agree on wording of

licensing agreementlicensing agreement Final draft not on the street, yetFinal draft not on the street, yet

Phil Karn (wrote decoder for ACE) will write Turbo Phil Karn (wrote decoder for ACE) will write Turbo decoder, free of chargedecoder, free of charge

STEREO Science CenterSTEREO Science Center

Real-time data displaysReal-time data displays ImagesImages Where is STEREO?Where is STEREO? Javascript movies w/selectable time rangeJavascript movies w/selectable time range

CME detection bit in real-timeCME detection bit in real-time One scheme is CACTUS One scheme is CACTUS

http://sidc.oma.be/cactus/http://sidc.oma.be/cactus/ Another is being developed by JPLAnother is being developed by JPL Automated e-mail alert? (current manual Automated e-mail alert? (current manual

LASCO alert)LASCO alert)

What do NOAA forecasters plan to What do NOAA forecasters plan to do with STEREO?do with STEREO?

3-d viewer or some way to display 3-d viewer or some way to display what’s coming at us on the Sun-Earth what’s coming at us on the Sun-Earth lineline SECCHI teamSECCHI team Others – Geometric LocalizationOthers – Geometric Localization

Predicting CME arrival – HIPredicting CME arrival – HI Anything that reliably and robustly Anything that reliably and robustly

describes some parameter of the data describes some parameter of the data that doesn’t require looking at the that doesn’t require looking at the huge volume of data.huge volume of data.

Coronal Hole/High Speed StreamCoronal Hole/High Speed Stream

Enhanced electronsEnhanced electrons Minor/Moderate Minor/Moderate

geomagnetic geomagnetic stormsstorms

Who caresWho cares Satellite operatorsSatellite operators ……

1 year into mission1 year into mission ~1.5 days lead time~1.5 days lead time

What we see at Earth What STEREO-B sees

SEP eventsSEP events Event profile depends on Event profile depends on

observer position relative to observer position relative to event sourceevent source Radiation StormRadiation Storm

Who cares:Who cares: Launch providersLaunch providers Satellite operatorsSatellite operators AstronautsAstronauts Airline pilots/stewardsAirline pilots/stewards

STEREO LAGGING EARTH STEREO LEADINGW90 W17 E42

Geometric Localization TechniqueGeometric Localization Technique

What ‘Geometric Localization’ (GL) What ‘Geometric Localization’ (GL) doesdoes Given observations of any structure from Given observations of any structure from

2 different places2 different places at the same time if a transient structureat the same time if a transient structure It works on ‘any’ structure for which an ‘edge’ It works on ‘any’ structure for which an ‘edge’

is visible is visible

GL defines a volume which circumscribes GL defines a volume which circumscribes that structurethat structure

STEREO Beacon DataSTEREO Beacon Data

24/7 real-time beacon data24/7 real-time beacon data See Biesecker and Webb poster SH21B-0412

Low-cadence, low resolutionLow-cadence, low resolution in-situin-situ imagingimaging

5-minute latency5-minute latency SECCHI/COR2 imagesSECCHI/COR2 images

4x per hour4x per hour 1/8 resolution (256x256 pixels ~ 120”)1/8 resolution (256x256 pixels ~ 120”)

Schematic of ‘Geometric Schematic of ‘Geometric Localization’ TechniqueLocalization’ Technique

Need location of 2 spacecraftNeed location of 2 spacecraft Defines a planeDefines a plane

Need location of ‘edges’ of CMENeed location of ‘edges’ of CME Defines a quadrilateral circumscribing CMEDefines a quadrilateral circumscribing CME

LA1LA2LB1

LB2

LA1LA2LB2 LB1

Geometric LocalizationGeometric Localization

Mark one edge – LMark one edge – LA1A1 s/c – s/c – Sun plane: defines a lines/c – s/c – Sun plane: defines a line Mark LMark LA2A2; and then in other s/c image mark L; and then in other s/c image mark LB1 & B1 & LLB2B2

Choose a succession of starting points – thin slicesChoose a succession of starting points – thin slices

e.g. STEREO Leading +35° e.g. STEREO Lagging -35°

The Resulting LocalizationThe Resulting Localization

Comparison of localization model to input CMEComparison of localization model to input CME 3 perspectives3 perspectives Geometric Localization circumscribes input CMEGeometric Localization circumscribes input CME

How well does it work?How well does it work?

One measure of errorOne measure of error Ratio of area Ratio of area

determined by GL to determined by GL to area of input CME ~ area of input CME ~ f(f(ΧΧ))

Quantifiable – critical Quantifiable – critical for forecastersfor forecasters

Ideal separation 90°Ideal separation 90° Two years into missionTwo years into mission

Reasonable Reasonable uncertainty (<50%)uncertainty (<50%) Year 1 to Year 3Year 1 to Year 3

Comparing area of cross-Comparing area of cross-section of model to section of model to cross-section of CMEcross-section of CME

Planned additional workPlanned additional work Explore much broader range of examples

Vary CME shape, density distribution Making it an operational product

Improve/refine error analysis Automated CME detection & edge detection

Apply to successive SECCHI COR2 images Location, extent, velocity

If CME will arrive and when How much of the CME Earth will see (strength and duration)

Streamline and document software Relate to polarization analysis (Moran and Davila 2004;

Dere et al.) GL removes plane of sky ambiguity Polarization analysis provides info. on internal structural

Polarization AnalysisPolarization Analysis

On a pixel by pixel basis – finds C.O.M. along a On a pixel by pixel basis – finds C.O.M. along a line of sightline of sight Collapses a 3-d structure into ~2.5-dCollapses a 3-d structure into ~2.5-d Gives spatial informationGives spatial information

Polarization Analysis +Polarization Analysis +Geometric LocalizationGeometric Localization

Polarization Analysis and Geometric Localization are Polarization Analysis and Geometric Localization are complementarycomplementary Geometric Localization resolves plane-of-sky ambiguities inherent in Geometric Localization resolves plane-of-sky ambiguities inherent in

polarization analysispolarization analysis Polarization analysis can provide more information about CME Polarization analysis can provide more information about CME

structure (structure (i.e.i.e. mass distribution) mass distribution)

LA1

)2(cos)/1(),( )2/( p

A pathetic attempt at demonstrating A pathetic attempt at demonstrating a visualization toola visualization tool

View from the side View straight down the barrel

What’s still missing?What’s still missing?

What info didn’t I present that FAB What info didn’t I present that FAB wants?wants?

What needs to be done before launchWhat needs to be done before launch Do we do lots of work to be ready for Do we do lots of work to be ready for

data?data? Do we wait to see what we end up Do we wait to see what we end up

getting and using?getting and using? Transition process?Transition process?

Data Browsers and ViewersData Browsers and Viewers

SSC Beacon Data pagesSSC Beacon Data pages http://stereo-http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/mockup/latest_mockup.shtmlssc.nascom.nasa.gov/mockup/latest_mockup.shtml

Solar Weather Browser Solar Weather Browser B. Nicula, D. Berghmans, R. van der Linden ROBB. Nicula, D. Berghmans, R. van der Linden ROB User-friendly browser tool for finding & displaying solar data & (SWB) User-friendly browser tool for finding & displaying solar data & (SWB)

context information.context information. Test version available at Test version available at http://http://sidc.oma.besidc.oma.be/SWB//SWB/..

STEREO Key Parameters STEREO Key Parameters C. Russell & IMPACT, PLASTIC & SWAVES teams UCLAC. Russell & IMPACT, PLASTIC & SWAVES teams UCLA An easily browseable Merged Key Parameter data display including the An easily browseable Merged Key Parameter data display including the

in-situ & SWAVE radio data from STEREO.in-situ & SWAVE radio data from STEREO. Carrington Rotation In-situ Browser Carrington Rotation In-situ Browser J. Luhmann, P. Schroeder UCBJ. Luhmann, P. Schroeder UCB

Browser for identifying in-situ events & their solar sources at CR-time Browser for identifying in-situ events & their solar sources at CR-time scales.scales.

Includes near-Earth (ACE) data sets for third point views & image Includes near-Earth (ACE) data sets for third point views & image movies from SECCHI & near-Earth (SOHO).movies from SECCHI & near-Earth (SOHO).

See: See: http://http://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/impact/data_browser/index.htmlsprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/impact/data_browser/index.html.. JAVA-3D Synoptic Information Viewer JAVA-3D Synoptic Information Viewer J. Luhmann, P. Schroeder UCBJ. Luhmann, P. Schroeder UCB

JAVA-3D applet for viewing 3D Sun & solar wind sources based on JAVA-3D applet for viewing 3D Sun & solar wind sources based on synoptic solar maps & potential field models of the coronal magnetic synoptic solar maps & potential field models of the coronal magnetic field.field.

Radio and CME data pagesRadio and CME data pages M. Pick, M. Maksimovic, J.L. Bougeret, et al.M. Pick, M. Maksimovic, J.L. Bougeret, et al. Ground radio imaging and spectra; movies; S/WAVESGround radio imaging and spectra; movies; S/WAVES

3-D Imaging Tools3-D Imaging Tools Tie Point Tool Tie Point Tool E. DeJong, P. Liewer, J. Hall, J. Lorre JPLE. DeJong, P. Liewer, J. Hall, J. Lorre JPL

Manually create tiepoints between features in SECCHI Manually create tiepoints between features in SECCHI image pair & solve for 3D location in heliographic image pair & solve for 3D location in heliographic coordinates.coordinates.

Geometric Localization Of CMEs Geometric Localization Of CMEs V. Pizzo, D. Biesecker NOAAV. Pizzo, D. Biesecker NOAA Tool utilizing a series of LOS’s from two views to define Tool utilizing a series of LOS’s from two views to define

the location, shape, size and velocity of a CME.the location, shape, size and velocity of a CME. To be automated & used to decide whether and when a To be automated & used to decide whether and when a

CME will impact Earth.CME will impact Earth.

3D Structure of CMEs 3D Structure of CMEs V. Bothmer, H. Cremades, D. Tripathi MPI, Ger.V. Bothmer, H. Cremades, D. Tripathi MPI, Ger. Program to compare analysis of SECCHI images on the Program to compare analysis of SECCHI images on the

internal magnetic field configuration & near-Sun internal magnetic field configuration & near-Sun evolution of CMEs with models based on SOHO evolution of CMEs with models based on SOHO observations.observations.

Forecast flux rope structure; 3D visualization of CMEs. Forecast flux rope structure; 3D visualization of CMEs.

Automated Detection and Automated Detection and IdentificationIdentification

Computer Aided CME Tracking (CACTus) Computer Aided CME Tracking (CACTus) E. Robbrecht, D. E. Robbrecht, D. Berghmans, et al.Berghmans, et al.

Near-realtime tool for detecting CMEs in SECCHI images.Near-realtime tool for detecting CMEs in SECCHI images. Outputs: QL CME catalog w/measures of time, width, speed; NRT Outputs: QL CME catalog w/measures of time, width, speed; NRT

CME warnings.CME warnings. Successfully tested on SOHO LASCO CMEs.Successfully tested on SOHO LASCO CMEs. Test version available at Test version available at http://http://sidc.oma.besidc.oma.be/cactus/cactus..

Computer Aided EUVI Wave & Dimming Detection Computer Aided EUVI Wave & Dimming Detection O. O. Podladchikova, D. Berghmans, A. Zhukov ROBPodladchikova, D. Berghmans, A. Zhukov ROB

NRT tool for detecting EUV waves & dimming regions.NRT tool for detecting EUV waves & dimming regions. To be tested on SOHO EIT images.To be tested on SOHO EIT images.

Velocity Map Construction Velocity Map Construction J. Hochedez, S. Gissot ROBJ. Hochedez, S. Gissot ROB Program to analyze velocity flows on SECCHI images; detect Program to analyze velocity flows on SECCHI images; detect

CME onsets & EUV waves; NRT warnings of fast CMEs; CME onsets & EUV waves; NRT warnings of fast CMEs; reconstruct 3D velocity maps of CMEs from 2D maps from each reconstruct 3D velocity maps of CMEs from 2D maps from each STEREO.STEREO.

Automatic Solar Feature Automatic Solar Feature D. Rust, P. Bernasconi, B. LaBonte, JHU/APLD. Rust, P. Bernasconi, B. LaBonte, JHU/APL Tool for detecting and characterizing solar filaments and Tool for detecting and characterizing solar filaments and

sigmoids Recognition & Classification in solar images. Goal is to sigmoids Recognition & Classification in solar images. Goal is to meas. magnetic helicity parameters & forecast eruptions using meas. magnetic helicity parameters & forecast eruptions using filaments & sigmoids.filaments & sigmoids.

Heliospheric StudiesHeliospheric Studies WSA Model PredictionsWSA Model Predictions N. Arge, J. Luhmann, D. Biesecker AFRL, UCB, NOAAN. Arge, J. Luhmann, D. Biesecker AFRL, UCB, NOAA

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge and ENLIL 3D MHD solar wind models will be The Wang-Sheeley-Arge and ENLIL 3D MHD solar wind models will be integratedintegrated

Provide routine predictions of vector s.w. velocity, polarity, s.w. density & Provide routine predictions of vector s.w. velocity, polarity, s.w. density & temp. anywhere you liketemp. anywhere you like

Identifying & Tracking CMEs with the Heliospheric ImagersIdentifying & Tracking CMEs with the Heliospheric Imagers R. R. Harrison, C. Davis RALHarrison, C. Davis RAL

Produce simulations to show model CMEs can be identified & tracked with Produce simulations to show model CMEs can be identified & tracked with the HIs.the HIs.

Use triangulation to measure speed & direction of CMEs & forecast their Use triangulation to measure speed & direction of CMEs & forecast their Earth arrival. Earth arrival.

Structural Context of Heliosphere Using SMEI DataStructural Context of Heliosphere Using SMEI Data D. Webb, B. D. Webb, B. Jackson BC/AFRL, UCSDJackson BC/AFRL, UCSD

Use analyses of SMEI images to provide structural context of the Use analyses of SMEI images to provide structural context of the heliosphere for STEREO HIheliosphere for STEREO HI

Also provide complementary observations of transient disturbances.Also provide complementary observations of transient disturbances. Interplanetary Acceleration of ICME’sInterplanetary Acceleration of ICME’s M. Owens BUM. Owens BU

Construct acceleration profiles of fast ICMEs over a large heliocentric range Construct acceleration profiles of fast ICMEs over a large heliocentric range using multi-point HI to understand the forces acting on ejecta.using multi-point HI to understand the forces acting on ejecta.

Improve predictions of arrival times of ICMEs at Earth.Improve predictions of arrival times of ICMEs at Earth. Relationship between CMEs and Magnetic CloudsRelationship between CMEs and Magnetic Clouds S. Matthews, MSSLS. Matthews, MSSL

Assess the potential geoeffectiveness of CMEs based their association with Assess the potential geoeffectiveness of CMEs based their association with magnetic clouds.magnetic clouds.

What particular characteristics lead to production of a magnetic cloud?What particular characteristics lead to production of a magnetic cloud?