Space Tourism Industry Emergence:Description and Data

Ken Davidian1–3

1FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation, Washington,DC, USA.2Editor-in-Chief, New Space Journal, Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.,New Rochelle, NY, USA.3Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg,VA, USA.

ABSTRACTThis report has 2 goals. The first is to narrate the origins of the

space tourism industry using 2 models of industry evolution. The

first model, representing the complex and turbulent nature of

the innovation process, sequences observed events into a nar-

rative of industry emergence. The second model, listing the in-

dustry resources required for successful emergence, referred to

as industry infrastructure elements (IIEs), helps identify the

relevant industry events from a larger number of component

incidents. This research collected more than 8,400 pieces of

secondary and archival data from traditional and news aggre-

gator websites, distilled them into *400 significant events,

and categorized them within the 3 main components of IIEs:

Institutional Arrangements, Resource Endowments, and Pro-

prietary Functions. Primary data, collected via 40 interviews of

industry members, complemented the secondary data. Organiz-

ing the events within these models results in a rich description

of the space tourism industry emergence phenomenon. The

second goal of this report is to contribute to industry emer-

gence research conducted by others. The data collection meth-

odology in this research followed that of the Minnesota

Innovation Research Project, which allows for the collectivi-

zation, and sharing, of data sets among multiple innovation

researchers, based on a common definition of the innovation

process. Therefore, in support of the goal of collectivist data

collection, the Supplementary Appendix of this report contains

the full data set of space tourism industry emergence events

(including citations), for use by like-minded industry emergence

researchers.

Keywords: innovation research, industry emergence, space

tourism, suborbital spaceflight, infrastructure elements

INTRODUCTION

This report describes the emergence of the space

tourism industry (or human suborbital spaceflight

population [HSSFP]),* within models of the inno-

vation process and required industry resources.

The HSSFP is rooted in high-speed, rocket-powered, mili-

tary aviation research, and its emergence was stimulated

by the Ansari X PRIZE competition. This research identified

HSSFP emergence events using a data collection method-

ology described in the Minnesota Innovation Research

Program.1–3

The space tourism industry can be described as a techno-

logical niche proto-market,4 in the intermediate stages of

the innovation process, before the appearance of a dominant

design. To describe the space tourism emergence story, this

report employs the ‘‘fireworks’’ innovation process model.5

This model reflects the complexity and uncontrollability of

the innovation process in 3 periods and 12 phases (Fig. 1).

The first Initiation period includes phases of Extended Ge-

station, Shock Trigger, and Submission of Initial Plans

(entry of new firms). Next, the Developmental period is the

most complex, including phases of Proliferation (of the

ª Ken Davidian 2020; Published by Mary Ann Liebert, Inc. This Open Access article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial

License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits any noncommercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original

author(s) and the source are cited.

*The phrase ‘‘space tourism industry’’ is commonly used by practitioners. More

accurately, ‘‘space tourism’’ is an industry segment of the ‘‘launch vehicle’’ in-

dustry. Because the terms ‘‘industry’’ and ‘‘industry segment’’ could be interpreted

as including commercial actors only, academic researchers employ the respective

terms of ‘‘community’’ and ‘‘population,’’ encompassing both commercial and

noncommercial actors. Therefore, from the academic perspective of organizational

evolution, the ‘‘launch vehicle industry’’ is categorized as a ‘‘community’’ and the

‘‘space tourism industry’’ is more accurately labeled the ‘‘human suborbital space

flight population.’’

DOI: 10.1089/space.2019.0040 MARY ANN LIEBERT, INC. � VOL. 8 NO. 2 � 2020 NEW SPACE 87

original concepts) Into Multiple Ideas, Setbacks and Mistakes,

Shifting Goals and Criteria (of success), Changing of

Involved Personnel, Involvement of Top Managers and

Investors, (development of) Interorganizational Relation-

ships, and Infrastructure Development. Only after these 10

earlier phases have been executed to some extent does the

process enter the final period of Implementation, encom-

passing phases of Innovation Adoption, and Implementation

or Resource Cessation.

The U.S. government (i.e., the Air Force and the National

Aeronautics and Space Administration [NASA]) conducted

supporting research for the HSSFP in the 1950s through

the 1970s. Between the years 1996 and 2004, the private

Ansari X PRIZE competition stimulated many individuals

and companies around the world to develop, and invest in,

commercially viable vehicles to safely fly ordinary humans

to the ‘‘edge’’ of space and back. New firms proposed many

vehicle designs, some as traditional rockets, and others as

winged vehicles. Some vehicle designs launch from the

ground, some from sea, while others were designed to be

dropped from an aircraft, or high-altitude balloon, in flight.

The entire mission, from the time the rocket fires until the

safe return to Earth, typically lasts less than 30 min. The X

PRIZE purse was ultimately won by Scaled Composites in

October 2004.

This current research focuses on vehicles designed to carry

people to a minimum altitude of 100 km and return to the

same location on Earth. The firms included in this study all

reached, or surpassed, the milestone of initial fabrication of a

full-scale vehicle as of December 2017. These include Scaled

Composites (with their vehicle, SpaceShipOne), Virgin Ga-

lactic (with SpaceShipTwo), Blue Origin (with New Shepard

[NS]), XCOR Aerospace (with Lynx Mark I), and Rocketplane

Global (with XP).{ This analysis does not include

firms who designed and operated suborbital

vehicles (including sounding rockets) to trans-

port scientific payloads, but not humans. One

firm that built initial hardware but not included

in this study, Copenhagen Suborbitals, started in

2008 with the goal of flying a single human on a

suborbital trajectory in a rocket-powered vehi-

cle, but their long-term public plans do not in-

clude commercial operation. Finally, in October

2017, Elon Musk of SpaceX announced human

suborbital transportation (flying to a different

point on Earth) as a possible business spin-off

from his orbital and deep space plans.6 As of

December 2019, 2 of the 5 HSSFP firms were

in operation, but neither had begun revenue-

generating flights. Because no paying customer has flown in

an HSSFP vehicle to date, the industry is in a pre-production

stage of emergence.

This report begins with a brief description of data collection

and analysis, followed by a recounting of the HSSFP emer-

gence story, grouping the relevant events into their respective

phases of the innovation process model. The report ends with

a brief conclusion section. The fully cited HSSFP event listing

is provided in the report Supplementary Appendix for use by

other researchers (with the presumption of appropriate attri-

bution). To minimize repetition between the list of references

in the main report and the Supplementary Appendix, state-

ments of events given in this report, that would normally be

cited, are not.

DATAThis section describes the collection and analysis of

data. This research collected individual HSSFP incidents (the

units of analysis) and combined them into relevant events

through a 2-stage categorization process. A chart showing

the chronological sequence of HSSFP emergence events was

created based on a framework of required industry emergence

resources.

Fig. 1. The innovation process model. Reprinted from Van de Ven et al.5(p. 25)

{For the remainder of this report, all HSSFP companies will be referred to by the

first word of their full names (i.e., Scaled, Virgin, Blue, XCOR, and Rocketplane).

Although the XCOR Lynx Mark I was not designed to fly to 100 km, it was a

precursor to the Lynx Mark II that was. This study includes the Lynx Mark I

because of the significant role it played in HSSFP development. Also, although

Rocketplane technically never began full-scale manufacturing of their XP vehicle,

they are included for similar reasons.

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88 NEW SPACE 2020 MARY ANN LIEBERT, INC.

Data CollectionThis research initially collected data from industry blogs,

including individual incidents dated between April 1999 and

December 2016.7 From the *28,000 incident entries gener-

ated from many different types of data sources and outlets, a

search using HSSFP keywords{ reduced the list to *8,400

HSSFP incidents. Industry blogs provide access to data. A

secondary aggregator site was queried, and it identified sim-

ilar industry incidents, providing links to the same, or similar,

sources as the principle site. The benefit gained from the

secondary site was marginal (i.e., very little new informa-

tion was found). In addition to the aggregator sites, other

sources of information included company web page archives,

other web logs, and traditional media research databases.

LexisNexis was used particularly for incidents and events

before April 1999 and after December 2016. In total, these

sites identified incidents from press releases, publicly avail-

able government documents, conference presentations, news

media reports, editorials, and commentaries. Data collection

for this research ended with events in late 2017.

This research also collected primary data through 40 semi-

structured personal interviews with HTTSP members, repre-

senting private firms, trade organizations, U.S. government

executive branch agencies (including the U.S. space trans-

portation regulator [the Federal Aviation Administration,

FAA], NASA, the Office of Management and Budget, and

the Office of Science and Technology Policy), the U.S. legis-

lative branch, industry consultants, conference organizers,

and supply chain members.

Data Analysis

Next, individual incidents were grouped, identifying

important contributing HSSFP events. Events were defined as

‘‘an incident when change occurred,’’ following a data col-

lection methodology described by Van de Ven.8(p. 33) Changes

were based on 5 major concepts of the innovation process

definition (italics added for emphasis in the following quote):

‘‘motivating and coordinating people to develop and implement

new ideas by engaging in transactions (or relationships) with others

and making the adaptations needed to achieve desired outcomes within

changing institutional and organizational contexts.’’3(p. 9)

Incidents were grouped into event categories of type and life

cycle stage. Event categories included: (1) meetings, expositions,

and conferences, (2) launches, (3) hardware testing, (4) raffles or

other types of games of skill or chance, (5) individual speaking

engagements or interviews, (6) organizations or government

agencies, (7) government programs, and (8) bills, legislation, or

laws (at federal, state, and local levels). Event life cycle stages

included: (1) start, entry, or introduction, (2) a retrospective,

profiles, plans, information, activities, partnerships, reactions, or

forecasts, (3) milestones, (4) conclusion, exit, or passage, and

(5) retrospective or future plans. Of the 8,400 HSSFP incidents,

the categorization process identified *400 events.

The event data were then grouped within a framework of

industry infrastructure elements (IIEs).9 The IIE framework

identifies resources required for successful industry emer-

gence, including first-level categories of Institutional

Arrangements, Resource Endowments, and Proprietary

Functions.10 Beneath these 3 top-level elements are second-

and third-order subelements, as shown in Table 1.

The identification and use of multiple data sources maxi-

mized data robustness. Data triangulation, a coherent audit

trail, a thorough description of industry emergence incidents

and events, and collaborating interviews, maximized the re-

liability and overall validity of the data. A recognized data

collection limitation was the reliance on secondary data, di-

minishing the data confirmability and credibility.

Data analysis involved creating an industry emergence chart

(Fig. 2) by chronologically ordering each event within the

framework of IIE and identifying interdependencies between

them.8 The chart spans 7 decades, starting with events dating

back to the early 1950s, allowing an opportunity for in-depth

description and analysis. The majority of HSSFP events fit

comfortably into the IIE framework. The chart traces a storyline

that describes how individual firms entered the industry, sought

and acquired financing, interacted with regulatory agencies,

conducted vehicle design, assembly, testing, and operations,

and, in some cases, exited the industry. It also shows specific

relationships and interactions between supporting facilities

(such as spaceports) and firm activities, and activities that

support the creation of knowledge and market resources.

SPACE TOURISM INDUSTRY EMERGENCEThis section recounts the events corresponding to the 3

innovation process periods and 12 phases of the fireworks

model (Fig. 1).

{The keyword search terms included general descriptors of the industry (e.g.,

‘‘suborbital,’’ ‘‘spaceport,’’ ‘‘spaceship,’’ or ‘‘prize’’), roots of the space tourism firm

names (e.g., ‘‘XCOR,’’ ‘‘Virgin,’’ or ‘‘Blue’’), and roots of the spaceport names or

acronyms (‘‘Mojave,’’ ‘‘OSIDA,’’ or ‘‘NMSA’’). The complete list of search terms

related to spaceports alone includes: ‘‘spaceport,’’ ‘‘Brownsville,’’ ‘‘Oklahoma

Spaceport,’’ ‘‘OSIDA,’’ ‘‘Texas Spaceport,’’ ‘‘Mojave,’’ ‘‘NM spaceport,’’ ‘‘NMSA,’’

‘‘Wallops,’’ ‘‘Spaceport America,’’ ‘‘California Spaceport,’’ ‘‘Cape Canaveral Space-

port,’’ ‘‘Cecil Field,’’ ‘‘Colorado Spaceport,’’ ‘‘Florida Spaceport,’’ ‘‘Front Range,’’

‘‘Kodiak,’’ ‘‘Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport,’’ ‘‘Poker Flat,’’ ‘‘Sheboygan Spaceport,’’

and ‘‘Spaceport Florida,’’ and ‘‘West Texas Spaceport.’’

HUMAN SUBORBITAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION INDUSTRY

MARY ANN LIEBERT, INC. � VOL. 8 NO. 2 � 2020 NEW SPACE 89

Initiation PeriodThe innovation process Initiation period includes phases of

Extended Gestation, a Shock Trigger, and the Submission of

Initial Plans. HSSFP events that occurred within these phases

are described below. Gestation events include the creation of

institutional resources, scientific knowledge, and human

capital. Although the Ansari X PRIZE was a triggering event

for space tourism as a whole, the creation, announcement, and

activity of space tourism companies were primarily estab-

lished before the winning of the competition.

Extended gestation phase. Institutional gestation events, in-

cluding treaties and regulations, were enacted that support

many space industry segments, including the HSSFP. For

example, the Outer Space Treaty established national over-

sight responsibilities for any country’s space activities, pro-

viding the legal basis for national-level regulation of all space

activities, including the U.S. commercial space transportation

regulations. Other U.S. laws led to regulations regarding

technology transfer, export control,

and environmental protection.

Gestation events that developed re-

sources of scientific knowledge also oc-

curred, including government research

and development (R&D) results. Tech-

nology development programs supported

later HSSFP emergence, listed in Table 2,

including suborbital flights conducted

by the military (the U.S. Air Force or the

Defense Advanced Research Projects

Agency [DARPA]) and/or NASA, as part

of a government research program.x Ex-

perimental suborbital vehicles, dating

back to the mid-1950s, were included if

they met the current regulatory defini-

tion of ‘‘suborbital rocket’’ and ‘‘subor-

bital trajectory.’’** The best known vehicle

in this category was the X-15. The Mer-

cury capsule, atop an Atlas rocket, at-

tained the highest altitude of all the

government research vehicles carrying

humans on a suborbital trajectory, on the

first 2 flights of the overall program.{{

Subsequent to the end of these research

programs (which ended in the mid-

1970s), DARPA conducted the Delta

Clipper program to advance technologies

important to the space tourism industry.

Human capital resource events

(Table 3) also prepared institutional and

industry actors for the emergence of the HSSFP (and the space

industry in general) during the Gestation phase. In addition

to university-level aerospace engineering programs,{{ new

multidisciplinary programs were created (the International

Table 1. Industry Infrastructure Element (IEE) Framework Taxonomy17

First-Order IIEs Second-Order Elements Third-Order Elements

Institutional

arrangements

Legitimation Guarantees Endorsements

Licensing practices Industry regulations

Governance Norms and rules Regulations

Laws

Technology standards Government regulatory mandates

Cooperative/voluntary ind. standards

Market-driven/de facto standards

Resource

endowments

Scientific and technological

research

Financing and insurance

arrangements

Public institutions Private organizations

(venture capital)

Human competence pool Educational training

programs

Recruitment and training

Sharing of knowledge

Proprietary

functions

Technological development

functions

Applied research

and development

Manufacturing

Testing

Innovation network and

resource channel activities

Appropriation of common

goods

Vendor–supplier–distributor

channels

Market creation and

consumer demand

Marketing Consumer demand

Cultural norms

xMuch of these data were generously provided by former XCOR employee,

Mr. Randall Clague.**The mission profiles of these flights fit the regulatory definitions of a suborbital

rocket and trajectory, namely ‘‘(19) . ‘suborbital rocket’ means a vehicle, rocket-

propelled in whole or in part, intended for flight on a suborbital trajectory, and the

thrust of which is greater than its lift for the majority of the rocket-powered

portion of its ascent. (20) ‘suborbital trajectory’ means the intentional flight path

of a launch vehicle, reentry vehicle, or any portion thereof, whose vacuum in-

stantaneous impact point does not leave the surface of the Earth.’’18

{{The remaining Mercury flights were orbital, not suborbital.{{The term ‘‘aerospace’’ was not uniquely, or even commonly used. Programs were

more likely to refer to the discipline using some combination of the terms

‘‘aeronautical’’ and/or ‘‘astronautical.’’

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90 NEW SPACE 2020 MARY ANN LIEBERT, INC.

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MARY ANN LIEBERT, INC. � VOL. 8 NO. 2 � 2020 NEW SPACE 91

Space University Space Studies and Master of Space Studies

programs, and the University of North Dakota Space Studies

program), as were conferences emphasizing student involve-

ment, the sharing of amateur rocketry experiences, and pro-

motion of the commercial (nongovernmental) uses of space.

Shock trigger phase. The Shock Trigger phase is next in the

Initiation period, during which an exogenous event, some-

times referred to as a ‘‘punctuation,’’11–13 stimulates industry

emergence events. For the HSSFP, the Ansari X PRIZE com-

petition was that shock event. The Ansari X PRIZE offered a

10 million U.S. dollar purse to the first nongovernmental or-

ganization to fly a single vehicle, capable of carrying 3 adults,

to an altitude of 100 km, twice in a 2-week period. The contest

was announced in 1996 by the X PRIZE Foundation, and at its

peak, there were 23 registered teams. Of the total field, ap-

proximately one-quarter built and/or tested hardware, and

only 1 team ended up conducting competition flights. The

purse was secured in 2001 (through the procurement of a

‘‘hole in one’’ insurance policy), encouraging the owner of

Scaled, and the designer of SpaceShipOne, Burt Rutan, to

begin pursuing the prize in earnest. SpaceShipOne won the

competition in October 2004.

Figure 3 shows the number of industry emergence events

increased significantly since 1996. The number of conference

publications and journal articles also experienced a marked

increase after the announcement, purse funding, and winning

of the X PRIZE. A 2-sample t-test (assuming unequal vari-

ances), for the average number of events per year from 1955 to

1995 compared with from 1996 to 2016,xx supports the hy-

pothesis that the increase in the average number of annual

HSSFP emergence events was statistically significant. As

shown in Figure 4, the number of HSSFP-related publications

also shows a statistically significant increase following the X

PRIZE announcement in 1996.*** Therefore, these findings

support the assertion that the X PRIZE competition, from

initial announcement through the final award, was the shock

trigger for the current set of observed HSSFP emergence

events.

Submission of initial plans. Building upon the foundational

institutional arrangements, government research, and devel-

opment of human capital, firms began executing their space

tourism plans in earnest subsequent to the Ansari X PRIZE

announcement, signaling the end of the first period of the

innovation process.

Initial planning and establishment of the first HSSFP firms

began in the late 1990s and early 2000s. When Scaled won the

X PRIZE in 2004, 4 companies had already been created and

announced. Scaled was the first of these companies, originally

founded as an aircraft design firm in 1982, and it ‘‘diversified’’

into suborbital spacecraft design in 2001. Founded in *1995,

Rocketplane was also a registered X PRIZE team and began

Table 2. Government Research

1955–1956: U.S. Air Force’s X-2 vehicle performs 13 test flights

1957-09-27: Fatal accident during an X-2 test flight

1959–1969: U.S. Air Force’s X-15 vehicle performs 340 test flights

1961-05-05: First suborbital flight of NASA’s Project Mercury

1961-07-21: Second suborbital flight of NASA’s Project Mercury

1967-11-15: Fatal accident during an X-15 test flight

1968–1970: U.S. Air Force’s HL-10 vehicle performs 37 test flights

1970–1971: U.S. Air Force’s X-24A vehicle performs 28 test flights

1970–1972: U.S. Air Force’s M2-F3 vehicle performs 43 test flights

1973–1975: U.S. Air Force’s X-24B vehicle performs 36 test flights

1990–1996: Delta Clipper Program

Table 3. Educational Programs and Conferences

1982-05–Present: National Space Society International Space Development

Conference held

1982–Present: Annual Students for the Exploration and Development of Space

conference held through 1997. The annual conference resumed, under the

name of SpaceVision in 2004

1987-04–Present: International Space University conducts Summer Session

Program

1987–Present: University of North Dakota conducts Space Studies program

1991–2005: Space Frontier Foundation Space Frontier Conferences held

1995–Present: International Space University conducts Master of Space Studies

program

xxThe computed P-value was 7.6E-6.***Three publication groups were identified using the keyword search terms

‘‘suborbital AND tourism,’’ including Google scholar search, articles presented at

the International Astronautical Congress, and articles presented at the AIAA

‘‘Space’’ conference. The P-values for all 3 were 2.0E-6, 1.8E-4, and 6.8E-4,

respectively.

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92 NEW SPACE 2020 MARY ANN LIEBERT, INC.

Fig. 3. Chronology of HSSFP events.

Fig. 4. Bibliometric results of ‘‘space AND tourism’’ keyword search.

MARY ANN LIEBERT, INC. � VOL. 8 NO. 2 � 2020 NEW SPACE 93

hardware manufacturing in the early 2000s. Although Richard

Branson licensed the name ‘‘Virgin Galactic Airways’’ in 1999,

it was not until 2004 that the brand was publicly announced at

a ceremony immediately following the second X PRIZE flight

of SpaceShipOne. XCOR and Blue began operations in 1999

and 2000 (respectively) and pursued vehicle development for

the space tourism industry without participating in the X

PRIZE competition.

The next period of the innovation process describes a com-

plex series of activities that advance the suborbital transpor-

tation industry emergence narrative.

Developmental PeriodDuring the Developmental period, industry actors identify

and voluntarily pursue alternative applications for their in-

novations. Challenges and setbacks, or involuntary changes of

company activities, also arise. These can have a ripple effect,

leading to a reevaluation of company goals and success cri-

teria, changes of technical staff and managers, new organi-

zational partnerships, and multiple program reviews. During

this period, industry actors decide whether, how, and with

whom to partner, to accumulate industry infrastructure re-

sources required for commercial success.

Proliferation into multiple ideas. As innovations develop, orig-

inal objectives and applications may not materialize as

planned, and new ones become evident, sometimes in very

different industry segments. The 5 space tourism companies

included in this study pursued vehicle development and

operations to different degrees. Rocketplane and XCOR

advanced to the stage of vehicle manufacture, but did not

begin operational testing of the entire vehicle system. The

remaining 3 companies all began flight test programs of

their vehicle systems. Two companies (Scaled and Virgin)

conducted flight tests with humans onboard.

All 5 companies encountered opportunities to pursue al-

ternative activities in spaceflight. Rocketplane halted its

suborbital vehicle development activities after its selection to

participate in the NASA Commercial Orbital Transportation

System (COTS) program. XCOR teamed with another company

(Masten Space Systems) to compete for the DARPA XS-1

program{{{ and later dedicated a portion of its workforce to

develop a propulsion system for the U.S. Air Force. Like XCOR,

Virgin participated in the XS-1 program (teaming with

Northrop-Grumman) and also started an entirely new com-

pany (Virgin Orbit) to develop a launch vehicle system to

deliver low-mass payloads to orbit, directly drawing upon

their experience in the design of their HSSFP vehicle and

propulsion systems. Finally, Blue pursued multiple parallel

activities, participating in the NASA Commercial Crew

Development program to develop a crewed orbital capsule,

partnering with Boeing on the XS-1 program, and developing

an orbital vehicle, called New Glenn. Although each of the

space tourism companies took detours, or branched out, from

the original human suborbital goals, they assumed these

activities voluntarily. Therefore, these are not considered

industry emergence setbacks.

Setbacks and mistakes. Setbacks and mistakes occurred during

the proliferation phase of HSSFP firms’ activities. Some set-

backs caused companies to exit the industry, whereas others

had less severe repercussions.

Blue experienced multiple setbacks during the flight test

phase of their vehicle development activities. On 2 occasions,

flight testing resulted in the entire loss of the vehicle. Neither

case involved a fatality (no people were onboard). Both Scaled

and Virgin experienced some minor technical setbacks during

their flight test programs, but the companies also experienced

significant setbacks resulting in 4 fatalities and a schedule

delay of 22 months.

XCOR lacked the financial resources of Blue and Virgin, so

firm survival required exploiting the company’s core com-

petency of liquid engine system development. XCOR divided

its technical team between activities of retail sales and de-

velopment of their vehicle and engines.

‘‘I never wanted to be in the consumer sales business, and ultimately,

getting in the consumer sales business probably is what ultimately

killed the company. I didn’t want to get into that business because I

thought, ‘That’s an incredibly different business.’’’—HSSFP Executive

Rocketplane was of similar size as XCOR and also had

limited resources. After 4 years of vehicle development ac-

tivities, Rocketplane diverted all their resources to work on an

orbital vehicle under the NASA COTS program. In 2007, when

Rocketplane failed to meet a required financial milestone,

NASA removed Rocketplane from the program. The effects

were catastrophic and forced the company into ‘‘hibernation

mode’’:

‘‘We were moving along, we would have been in flight test and

probably in operation by 2008 or 2009 if it hadn’t been for COTS, and

we hadn’t been distracted and ultimately bled out.’’—HSSFP Executive

Shifting goals and criteria. Financial considerations caused the

smaller space tourism firms to modify their business goals

and technical criteria of success. Rocketplane’s vehicle design

{{{The goal of the DARPA XS-1 program initial phases (A and B) was the design of

an autonomous suborbital vehicle that could be flown 10 times in 10 days to an

altitude of 200 km, to put a 1,360 kg satellite in orbit, or service existing satellites.19

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94 NEW SPACE 2020 MARY ANN LIEBERT, INC.

evolved from a modified Lear Jet to a larger vehicle, doubling

the vehicle cost, and putting a financial strain on the firm. It

was at this time the COTS program opportunity emerged, so

Rocketplane decided to pursue that new objective. XCOR

moved their R&D activities from Mojave, CA (where they

perceived the cost of doing business as too high), to Midland,

TX, in search of ‘‘the best business conditions.’’

Change of involved personnel. In addition to shifting goals and

success criteria, personnel also came and went from the space

tourism projects. The 4 firms that entered the market after the

X PRIZE (i.e., all except Scaled) experienced changes of per-

sonnel working for the companies. The monotonically in-

creasing number of Blue employees reflects the overall

company growth, due to its diversification into the orbital

sector, and cannot be attributed solely to their suborbital ac-

tivity. For the smaller companies (Rocketplane and XCOR), the

employment numbers rise and then fall to zero. Although the

data are a bit sparse, Table 4 provides employment levels for

all the space tourism industry firms.

Insights into personnel changes at Blue, Scaled, and Virgin

are limited to publicly available sources. Typically, changes at

the highest organizational levels were deemed noteworthy by

industry observers, although the impact of these changes

within the company is estimated to be limited because no

major strategic or operational changes were observed. The

organizational structures of the 2 smaller firms, Rocketplane

and XCOR, were much flatter, resulting in a greater impact of

personnel changes within these companies. XCOR experi-

enced a significant change of the company ownership, which

may have led to the release, 6 months later, of the employees

working on vehicle development.

Involvement of top managers and investors. All 5 space tourism

firms benefited from the involvement of top managers and

investors, but the benefits were especially significant for Blue

and Virgin. Jeff Bezos committed to annually sell $1 billion of

Amazon stock14 to subsidize all Blue operations (suborbital

and orbital). In 2004, Virgin was funded by their parent

company (the Virgin Group) and then by sovereign investors

(United Arab Emirates [UAE] then Aabar Investments, later

Mubadala Investments), in 2009 and 2011, at funding levels in

the hundreds of millions of dollars. Paul Allen provided *$30

million of funding for Burt Rutan to compete in the X PRIZE

competition. XCOR had individual (angel) and other private

investors from the United States and Denmark, providing on

the order of tens of millions of dollars,

that later changed the company’s direc-

tion. George French invested $10 million

into Rocketplane to enable passage of an

Oklahoma tax credit law, resulting in a

$12 million cash return.

Interorganizational relationships. All5com-

panies had strong interorganizational

relationships with state and federal gov-

ernment agencies, including many of the

NASA research and spaceflight centers,

and U.S. military organizations. Blue

executed multiple space act agreements

(SAA) with NASA centers. Rocketplane

established a relationship with the Okla-

homa state government, leading to the

passage of a tax credit law which Rock-

etplane converted into $12M of liquid

funds. Because it would have violated the

rules of the X PRIZE competition, Scaled

had minimal (if any) relationship with

governmental agencies for the design

and operation of SpaceShipOne. Once the

X PRIZE purse was fully funded, Rutan

received an investment of *$30 million

Table 4. Human Suborbital Spaceflight Population Firms’ Employment Histories

Year

Blue

Origin Rocketplane

Scaled

Composites

Virgin

Galactic XCOR

2003 0

2004 60–70 *125

2005 17

2006 30

2007 0 *250

2008 30–35

2011 25–30

2012 170 50

2014 350 *400 80

2015 400 500+ 110

2016 800 700 50–60

2017 1,024 0

2018 1,400

2019 2,500 721

The rows, for the years with no data (2009, 2010, and 2013), have been omitted from this table.

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MARY ANN LIEBERT, INC. � VOL. 8 NO. 2 � 2020 NEW SPACE 95

from Paul Allen to design and build the vehicle that ultimately

won the X PRIZE competition. They also established Mojave

Aerospace Ventures (MAV) to license the vehicle technology.

After the competition, however, Virgin licensed the vehicle

design from MAV and entered into a business partnership with

Scaled to create The Spaceship Company (TSC) for the man-

ufacture of future SpaceShipTwo vehicles. Scaled sold its

minority share in TSC in 2012 and effectively exited the space

tourism industry at that time. Virgin also entered into multiple

SAA with NASA centers. Finally, XCOR also had an SAA with

NASA.

Infrastructure development. The last phase of the Developmental

period, Infrastructure Development, is very significant be-

cause all actors, either individually or in cooperation with

others, work to ensure the long-term viability of the industry,

by building and accumulating IIE of Institutional Arrange-

ments, Resource Endowments, and Proprietary Functions.

Development and accumulation of some IIE began before

the X PRIZE events, as discussed in the Gestation phase of the

innovation process model. Resources accumulated after the

Shock Event phase are discussed in this section.

Institutional arrangements. Subcategories of Institutional

Arrangements IIE events include legitimation, governance,

and technology standards. After the X PRIZE, the U.S. regu-

latory agency (FAA AST) issued safety approvals, experi-

mental permits, spaceport licenses, and mission licenses

related to the space tourism industry. These regulatory de-

terminations increased the legitimacy of HSSFP activities,15

such as training services. Other legitimation events included

Congressional testimony regarding space tourism, Congres-

sional recognition of the X PRIZE award, and the induction of

SpaceShipOne into the Smithsonian National Air and Space

Museum. Political activities of space tourism firms also

influenced legitimacy through active lobbying, and contri-

butions to political action committees.{{{

Space tourism industry governance events also fostered and

reinforced norms and rules of the community, including

recognition ceremonies (awarding of astronaut wings), crea-

tion of an space industry trade association (the Personal

Spaceflight Federation, later renamed to the Commercial

Spaceflight Federation), and creation of a space tourism in-

dustry interest group (the Suborbital Applications Research

Group). The FAA released recommended practices, and other

guidelines for human spaceflight crew and occupant safety.

The U.S. Congress enacted 2 federal laws to amend the original

Commercial Space Launch Act of 1985 after the X PRIZE was

won. State governments (in Hawaii, Virginia, Florida, New

Mexico, California, Oklahoma, Texas, and others) passed laws

related to the space tourism industry, addressing topics of

limited liability, informed consent, the establishment of space

port and space port authorities, taxes, and tax exemptions for

space-related expenses.

Resources to establish space tourism industry technology

standards (including government mandate, de facto, or in-

dustry consensus-voluntary standards) have not yet been

substantially accumulated. Contributing factors may include

the high level of diversity of trade organization members, or

the political nature of creating industry standards. Attempts

by the trade organization at standards development has only

resulted in an industry consensus for propellant handling.

More recently, HSSFP members began working with a stan-

dards development organization, to make progress in this IIE.

Based on the attitude of Congress toward the level of gov-

ernment involvement in space tourism industry emergence,

no standards were mandated by government. There are no de

facto (i.e., dominant design) standards because no firm has

fully entered the market. This is a major gap in the develop-

ment of Institutional Arrangement IIE.

Resource endowments. Resource Endowments IIE events in-

clude public-domain (i.e., government funded) scientific and

technological research, financial arrangements, and the pool

of human capital. Although government contract R&D gen-

erated very few results relevant to the space tourism industry

since the X PRIZE, federal grants to universities (through the

FAA Center of Excellence for Commercial Space Transporta-

tion) supported suborbital transportation research since 2010.

Government financing provided to space tourism industry

firms for reasons other than knowledge generation (such as

market creation) are included in the subelement of financial

arrangements. The U.S. Department of Defense, NASA, and

other government agencies at the federal, state, and municipal

levels also funded space tourism industry firms through the

Small Business Innovation Research program, various ac-

quisitions, and nonequity investments. The level of govern-

mental, nonequity support is small (ranging from $100

thousand to $12 million) compared with private funding

sources in exchange for equity. Equity investments (by private

individuals, parent companies, angel investors, venture cap-

italists, and nondomestic governmental investment groups)

were typically on the order of tens, or hundreds, of millions of

dollars. Jeff Bezos started Blue with a personal investment of

{{{For this discussion, legitimacy is being characterized as a unidimensional re-

source. In reality, there are many different dimensions of legitimacy depending on

which taxonomy is selected.15,20–22

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96 NEW SPACE 2020 MARY ANN LIEBERT, INC.

$500 million. Aabar investments (backed by the government

of the UAE) provided 2 rounds of funding to Virgin, the

smallest of which was $110 million. The largest private equity

investments far exceeded the level of funding provided by any

government sources.

Other programs, initiated by both government and non-

government entities, included prize and contest competitions.

These were categorized separately from other funding sources

because they acted as catalysts for private investment, al-

though the programs themselves provided a token amount

of funding only upon successful completion of the project.

Although the purse could be relatively small (e.g., $10 million

in the case of the X PRIZE), it stimulated larger investments

from additional sources, inside and outside the industry. The

Lunar Lander Challenge was a $2 million prize competition

funded by NASA, administered by the X PRIZE Foundation,

and financially supported by Northrop Grumman. A similar

activity, designed to stimulate industry-wide investment,

was the short-lived Rocket Racing League. Although prizes

are categorized within the funding resource IIE, prize com-

petitions are also contributors to industry and individual

legitimacy.15

Events that develop the HSSFP human competence pool

include the creation and execution of educational programs,

recruitment and training events, and knowledge sharing ef-

forts. A small number of new educational programs came into

existence after the X PRIZE (including the International Space

University Summer Hemisphere Space Studies Program, and

the Embry-Riddle Commercial Spaceflight Operations pro-

gram), complementing those already in existence. Training

programs began to proliferate,16 emphasizing the training

of future nongovernment, citizen-scientist astronauts (e.g.,

Astronauts4Hire, the NASTAR Center, and Embry-Riddle

Aeronautical University’s ‘‘Polar Suborbital Science in the

Upper Mesosphere’’ program), and providing training in the

use of space suits, mission simulation, and functioning in

simulated spaceflight conditions (e.g., hypoxia and high

g-forces). Knowledge sharing events, such as annual and

episodic conferences, proliferated. Some events focused spe-

cifically on the HSSFP (e.g., the X PRIZE Cup events, and

the Next-Generation Suborbital Researcher’s Conference). As

mentioned previously, a bibliometric proxy for HSSFP

knowledge sharing activity shows the significant increase of

knowledge-sharing since the X PRIZE competition (Fig. 4).

Proprietary functions. The Proprietary Functions IIE events

include technology development functions, the creation of

innovation network and resource channels, market creation,

and consumer demand. Technology development functions

include proprietary R&D conducted by the firms, and

manufacturing, assembly, and testing of their vehicles. In-

sights into privately funded R&D are limited because of the

secretive nature of proprietary activities. Press releases pro-

vide general information, but details of specific projects are

typically not publicly available. Proprietary research results,

conducted by firms for their own purposes, differ from the

publicly available R&D conducted in the Resource Endow-

ments element. The in-house R&D activities of each firm

contribute to their intellectual property, protected through the

patenting process, or by the keeping of trade secrets. These

protections are necessary to ensure that the firm benefits from

their research, and ‘‘free riders’’ do not. Patent data exist for

space tourism firms, but the numbers of patents for some firms

are small or zero. The patent quality and applicability to the

space tourism industry are also open to interpretation. Patents

awarded to the space tourism firms are listed in the Supple-

mentary Appendix.

Before 2005, Rocketplane participated in a government-

sponsored design program, resulting in the partial construc-

tion of their vehicle. In 2004, XCOR received a mission license

for the Xerus vehicle design that was never built. The com-

pany worked on rocket propelled aircraft that could partici-

pate in the newly formed Rocket Racing League, but when

follow-on development contracts did not materialize, they

announced the design of their Lynx Mark I and Mark II ve-

hicles. The design of the Mark I was completed, and the vehicle

was only partially assembled when the company ran out of

funds.

Scaled, Virgin, and Blue all conducted flight testing of their

vehicles. Since flight testing is difficult to conceal, industry

observers easily documented HSSFP vehicle testing activities.

Scaled provided detailed flight test summary reports on their

website. Flight testing began in 2003 and culminated in the

prize-winning flights in September and October 2004. The

flight test program for Scaled is summarized in Table 5.

At the second competition flight of SpaceShipOne, Sir

Richard Branson announced the creation of Virgin. Virgin

worked closely with Scaled from 2004 to design, manufacture,

and assemble SpaceShipTwo, the new vehicle. Testing of op-

erational procedures, specifically the transfer of nitrous ox-

ide propellant, led to an accident that killed 3 Scaled

employees. Although this was not considered a space industry

accident (the accident investigation fell under the purview of

the California Occupational Safety and Health Administra-

tion), the timeline of SpaceShipTwo development and testing

was negatively affected by the accident. Flight tests of the new

vehicle began in 2010 and continued at an increasing pace

until another fatal accident in October 2014 occurred on the

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fourth powered flight of SpaceShipTwo. Because the accident

occurred during flight, this investigation was led by the

National Transportation Safety Board, and testing operations

stopped for *2 years. Flight tests resumed in 2016 and are

still ongoing at the time of this writing. Virgin’s flight test

program is summarized in Table 6.

After its founding in 2000, Blue maintained a low profile,

eschewing publicity and maintains a high level of secrecy of

its operations and intentions. It was not

until 2016 that Blue began publicizing

their activities, inviting the press to tour

their facilities, and providing web broad-

casts of their test flights. After the firm

creation, Blue established their private

launch site near Van Horn, TX, and then

tested their early vehicles (the Charon,

Goddard, and Propulsion Module 2) be-

tween 2005 and 2011. After a hiatus of 4

years, the NS vehicle, their first reusable

vehicle capable of carrying humans to

100 km altitude, began flight testing. The

first NS1 flight test in April 2015 ended in

loss of vehicle, but NS2 flights re-

commenced before the end of the year. NS2

went on to fly 5 times before being retired

in October 2016. NS3 began its flight tests

in December 2017 and is still the vehicle

being tested at the time of this writing.

Blue’s flight test program is summarized in Table 7.

Private research organizations also performed some testing

of spaceflight systems (e.g., Southwest Research Institute

tested pressure suits). Individual testing events for all HSSFP

companies are listed in the Supplementary Appendix.

Successful industry emergence requires the creation of an

innovation network, including the appropriation of common

goods, and the development of a network

(i.e., channels) of vendors, suppliers, and

distributors. Common goods (government-

funded scientific and technological results,

education and training programs, knowl-

edge sharing activities, and publicly

available infrastructure facilities) were

discussed above, except for spaceports.

Spaceports used by suborbital vehicles do

not include the orbital federal launch sites

located on the east or west coasts of the

continental United States (i.e., the Cape

Canaveral and Vandenberg ranges). HSSFP

spaceports available to any vehicle opera-

tor can be purpose-built, or repurposed

from existing military or civilian facilities,

and receive a license to operate from the

FAA. Blue uses its own private facility, not

available for use by other companies, near

Van Horn, TX. Virgin is initially committed

to the New Mexico spaceport but has ex-

plored options of operating out of other

Table 5. Scaled Composite SS1 Program Testing Summary

Projects

Date of

First Test

Date of

Last Test Notes

WhiteKnightOne 2002-08-01 2004-06-14 59 Test flights, conducted without

SpaceShipOne

RocketMotorOne 2002-11-21 2003-11-18 12 Test firings between Sierra Nevada Space

and Environmental Aeroscience Corp.

SpaceShipOne 2003-05-21 2003-10-21 4 Series of ground tests, each up to 14 days

long

2003-05-20 2003-08-27 3 Captive carry test flights

2003-08-07 2004-03-11 8 Glide test flights

2003-12-17 2004-10-04 6 Powered test flights

2004-06-21 2004-10-04 3 Flights >100 km (last 2 performed to win

the X PRIZE)

Table 6. Virgin Galactic SS2 program Testing Summary

Projects

Date of

First Test

Date of

Last Test Notes

WhiteKnightTwo 2008-12-21 2014-04-12 97 Test flights, conducted without

SpaceShipTwo—Enterprise

RocketMotorTwo 2009-04-20 2014-10-09 57 Test firings

SpaceShipTwo—Enterprise 2010-03-22 2012-07-16 16 Captive carry tests

2013-04-12 2014-08-28 2 Cold flow tests

2010-10-10 2014-10-07 30 Glide test flights

2013-04-29 2014-10-31 4 Powered test flights, the last resulting

in loss of vehicle

SpaceShipTwo—Unity 2016-09-09 2016-11-30 4 Captive carry tests

2016-12-03 2018-01-11 7 Glide test flights

(as of submission date)

2018-04-05 2019-02-22 5 Powered test flights

(as of 2020-03-08)

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98 NEW SPACE 2020 MARY ANN LIEBERT, INC.

locations within the United States and around the world. Other

HSSFP spaceport sites have been proposed. A list of the HSSFP

spaceports is given in Table 8.

Development of vendor, supplier, and distributor networks

are evident in the HSSFP. An example is the Virgin partner-

ship with Scaled to create TSC, the manufacturing firm for

SpaceShipTwo. Virgin eventually bought Scaled’s share of the

joint venture in 2012, signaling Scaled’s exit from the HSSFP,

and Virgin’s vertical (backward) integration into vehicle man-

ufacturing. Other network creation events included

XCOR’s partnership with, or acquisition of, other com-

panies (such as Xtraordinary Adventures, Rocketship

Tours, or Space Expedition Corp.) to market and sell

tickets on their vehicle. Virgin included ticket sales within

the boundaries of their company operations. Rocketplane

never actively sold tickets, although angel investors were

promised rides on the vehicle once it was in operation.

Blue started offering tickets for sale in 2017, and the ac-

tivity was primarily performed in-house.

HSSFP firms performed market creation and consumer

demand activities in many ways, including the unveiling

(i.e., dramatic revealing) of a new vehicle, facility ground

breaking, ‘‘grand opening,’’ or dedication events (e.g., of

spaceport runways), the creation of new programs, the

announcement of new industry publications, contests, and

raffles for winning prizes of suborbital flights, or the predic-

tions of first test flights or first commercial flights. For ex-

ample, there were unveiling events for WhiteKnightTwo and

SpaceShipTwo at the Mojave Air and Space Port. XCOR an-

nounced their Lynx vehicle designs at a press conference, with

the intention of increasing visibility of their company and

project. Contests, including competitions, prizes, awards,

raffles, and sweepstakes, were used extensively to promote

HSSFP firms (primarily for Virgin and

XCOR) and provided some funding, mar-

keting, and motivation to the companies:

‘‘when you’re at a company that is funded

the way we were funded, those sorts of activ-

ities can really help with moral of the em-

ployees. And they see validation in what

they’re doing. So it was always helpful just to

have those things going on and people coming

through and . them giving a summary of

their work. It’s amazing when you have an

intern or a first-year engineer who’s asked to

well, show this person what you’re working on.

And then they find out later that that’s the

number 2 producer at The Big Bang Theory,

their favorite TV show . It’s like, ‘Oh my

God!’, you know?’’—Former HSSFP Executive

Actual demonstrations of demand,

through the advanced purchase of tickets

for future flights, are discussed in the In-

novation Adoption section.

Industry emergence is a result of sur-

viving all the challenges encountered in

the Developmental period of the innova-

tion process. Setbacks, mistakes, personnel

changes, partnerships, management and

Table 7. Blue Origin Program Testing Summary

Projects

Date of

First Test

Date of

Last Test Notes

Charon 2005-03-05 2005-03-05 1 Test flight

Goddard 2006-11-13 2007-04-19 3 Test flights

Propulsion

Module 2

2011-05-06 2011-08-24 2 Test flights, last ends

in loss of vehicle

New Shepard 1 2015-04-29 2015-04-29 1 Flight test, ends in loss of vehicle

New Shepard 2 2015-11-23 2016-10-05 5 Flight tests

New Shepard 3 2017-12-12 2019-01-23 6 Flight tests (as of 2020-03-08)

Table 8. The Creation of Human Suborbital Spaceflight Population (HSSFP)Spaceports

Year Spaceport (Name, Location) Associated Vehicle Operator

2004 East Kerns Aviation District, license revised in 2008,

2009, renamed the Mojave Air and Space Port in

2014, Mojave, CA

Initially Rotary, but later Virgin

Galactic (for flight testing)

2006 Oklahoma Spaceport, operated by the Oklahoma

Space and Industry Development Association, license

revised in 2011, near Burns Flat, OK

Rocketplane

2009 New Mexico Spaceport America, license revised in

2012 and 2014, near Truth or Consequences, NM

Virgin Galactic (for production

operations)

2010 Cecil Field Spaceport, operated by the Jacksonville

Airport Authority, aka Ellis Field, license revised in

2015, Jacksonville, FL

Rocketplane

2014 Midland International Air & Space Port, operated by

Midland International Airport, Midland, TX

XCOR Aerospace

2015 Houston Spaceport, owned and managed by the

Houston Airport System, aka Ellington Field District,

Houston, TX

Sierra Nevada (not a HSSFP firm,

but the facility is usable by HSSFP

vehicles)

2018 Colorado Air and Space Port, Front Range, CO None

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MARY ANN LIEBERT, INC. � VOL. 8 NO. 2 � 2020 NEW SPACE 99

investor involvement, shifting of goals, and the complex

process of building and accumulating all the industry infra-

structure resources are constant barriers that new industry

firms must overcome. If they survive the first 2 periods, firms

may independently progress into the ultimate stage of the

innovation process, the Implementation period.

Implementation PeriodThe Implementation period includes phases of Adoption,

when the innovation finds some degree of market acceptance,

and Termination, in the cases where insufficient adoption

forces the innovation process to end, or the firm to cease

operations. As of the time of this writing, 2 HSSFP firms (Blue

and Virgin) are still in a state of pre-production, awaiting

strong evidence of market acceptance.xxx Although customers

have purchased, or placed deposits toward, future space-

flights, no company has yet delivered a successful suborbital

spaceflight to a paying customer. The Termination phase has

already been experienced, voluntarily by Scaled, and invol-

untarily by Rocketplane and XCOR.

Innovation adoption. As of early

2020, Blue and Virgin are work-

ing to enter the HSSFP market. A

proxy for HSSFP innovation

adoption exists, however, in the

number of flight reservations re-

corded. Based on statements

made by Virgin officials, the

number of reservations has

shown a steady growth, from 0 in

2005 to the first 100 reservations

by 2006, and reaching *700 at

the time of the SpaceShipTwo

accident in October 2014

(Fig. 5).**** Since that time, the

number of reservations has held

steady, primary because Virgin

halted sales. These reservations

were made through deposits, be-

tween 10% and 100% of the full

ticket price (initially $200,000

and raised to $250,000 in mid-

2013). Reportedly, XCOR also

sold on the order of 200–300

advanced tickets, but the degree of documentation on these

numbers is less rigorous than those for Virgin. At the same

time that reservations for future flights were being sold, NASA

began the Flight Opportunities Program, intended to stimulate

demand for the HSSFP flights. The program issued contracts to

developers of experiments and payloads that could eventually

fly on the suborbital vehicles, or they purchased future flights

on pre-production vehicles.

Termination. Whereas innovation adoption is a positive sign

for industry emergence, firm exits are negative indicators.

Scaled voluntarily phased out of suborbital flight operations

after winning the X PRIZE competition, at which time, it li-

censed the design of SpaceShipTwo to Virgin. The 2 compa-

nies then partnered to create TSC. Scaled eventually sold its

share of TSC to Virgin in 2012, effectively exiting the HSSFP

altogether. In 2006, Rocketplane diverted all their resources to

work on an orbital vehicle under the NASA COTS program. In

2007, when Rocketplane failed to meet a required financial

milestone, NASA removed Rocketplane from the program.

This forced the company into ‘‘hibernation mode.’’ Ultimately,

Fig. 5. Number of reported flight reservations on the Virgin Galactic SpaceShipTwo vehicle.

xxxBoth these space tourism companies have flown scientific experiment payloads

for paying customers, demonstrating the emergence of the Research and Edu-

cational Missions market.

****Any ticket reservation holder was given the option to opt-out of their future

flight in light of the accident. Anecdotally, there was a slight reduction in res-

ervations, but the number quickly rebounded to the pre-accident level.

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100 NEW SPACE 2020 MARY ANN LIEBERT, INC.

the company filed for bankruptcy and was eventually sold at

auction for $25,000. Over time, the XCOR vehicle develop-

ment activities ran out of funding and that team was released

in June 2016. By June 2017, the engine development con-

tract was terminated, forcing the entire company to file for

bankruptcy.

Summary

This research identified HSSFP events that fit within the

innovation process ‘‘fireworks’’ model and provide the industry

emergence story. All 3 periods and 12 phases of the model are

represented by the observed events, demonstrating that the

industry is past the initial emergence stages, into an interme-

diate pre-production phase, that is seemingly close to actual

commercial operation. This will be signaled once any firm flies

a customer in exchange for a ticket sold. To date, many tickets

have been sold, but no customers have flown. Scaled, the 1

firm that diversified into the suborbital transportation market,

has voluntarily redirected their focus back to innovative air-

craft design. Another 2 firms exited the HSSFP due to financial

constraints. The remaining 2 firms, Blue and Virgin, persist in

their efforts to enter the market of offering suborbital space

transportation flights to paying customers.

CONCLUSIONThe purpose of this article is to describe the emergence of

the HSSFP within models of the innovation process and re-

quired industry resources. The HSSFP emergence description

(given here) and the cited event data (provided in the Sup-

plementary Appendix) are offered for use by researchers

employing a similar data collection methodology in support

of their innovation process research. This research collected

individual HSSFP incidents, and combined them, through a

2-stage categorization process, into relevant events. A chart

of HSSFP emergence was created by framing the events

chronologically within the IIE framework. The history of

HSSFP emergence was described within the 3 periods and 12

phases of the innovation process ‘‘fireworks’’ model.

Initiation period events laid the foundation of knowledge

and technologies supporting HSSFP emergence based on

government test programs starting in the 1950s. The space

tourism industry also benefited from institutional treaties,

laws, and regulations, affecting space activities in general,

from the mid-1960s until the mid-1980s. The Ansari X PRIZE,

starting with the initial announcement in 1996, and ending

with the $10 million purse award in 2004, provided the major

shock trigger that acted as a catalyst for the formation of new

space tourism firms, signaling the end of the first period of the

innovation process. Next, the Developmental period describes

a complex series of activities that facilitate the development

and maturation of suborbital transportation innovations.

Surviving these challenges is difficult and include setbacks,

mistakes, personnel changes, partnerships, management and

investor involvement, and shifting goals. HSSFP actors ac-

tively accumulated and are still accumulating, most of the

IIE resources required for successful space tourism industry

emergence. Space tourism firms that eventually exited the

industry received financial resources on the order of tens of

millions of dollars. The 2 remaining space tourism firms still in

existence, however, received funding on the order of hundreds

of millions of dollars. Subsequently, firms progressed to the

last stage of the innovation process, the Implementation pe-

riod. Although a number of pre-flight ticket reservations have

been received by one of the 2 remaining space tourism firms,

no customer has yet flown in a suborbital space transportation

vehicle, evidence that this industry segment has yet to dem-

onstrate full emergence. Finally, 1 resource, technology

standards, is still underdeveloped. While this is characteristic

of industry evolution before the clear identification of market

demand and emergence of a dominant design, the continued

absence of standards could increase interorganizational con-

flict and reduce HSSFP legitimacy, both of which would re-

duce the chances of successful emergence.

The data supporting this research are made available in the

attached Supplementary Appendix, fully cited, for use by

other researchers (with the presumption that appropriate at-

tribution will be given) following a compatible data collection

methodology. It is hoped that a practice of collectivist data

collection can be established, allowing other organizational

change and innovation researchers to benefit from, and con-

tribute to, a data pool encompassing multiple dimensions,

including industry contexts, time periods, and geographic

coverage.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTSThis work was conducted as part of a doctoral thesis, under

the academic supervision of Dr. Richard Chivaka at the Uni-

versity of Cape Town Graduate School of Business. At the

time of this submission, the author was an employee of the

FAA, which neither endorses nor rejects the findings of this

research.

AUTHOR DISCLOSURE STATEMENTNo competing financial interests exist.

FUNDING INFORMATIONThis research was personally funded and did not receive

support from any other organization.

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MARY ANN LIEBERT, INC. � VOL. 8 NO. 2 � 2020 NEW SPACE 101

SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALSupplementary Appendix

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11. Tushman ML, Romanelli E. Organizational evolution: A metamorphosis model of

convergence and reorientation. Res Organizational Behav 1985;7:171–222.

12. Romanelli E, Tushman ML. Organizational transformation as unctuated

equilibrium: An empirical test. Acad Manage J. 1994;37(5):1141–1166.

13. Astley WG. The two ecologies: Population and community perspectives on

organizational evolution. Administrative Sci Q. 1985;30(2):224–241.

14. St. Fleur N. Besoz is selling $1 billion of Amazon stock a year to fund rocket

venture. The New York Times, Colorado Springs, CO, 2017.

15. Aldrich HE, Fiol CM. Fools rush in? The institutional context of industry creation.

Acad Manage Rev. 1994;19(4):645–670.

16. Futron Corporation. Commercial Human Spaceflight Crew Training Survey.

Washington, DC, 2008. https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_

offices/ast/media/Crew_Training_Survey_Feb_2008.pdf Last accessed, May 5,

2020.

17. Van de Ven AH, Garud RB. A framework for understanding the emergence

of new industries. In: Rosenbloom RS, Burgelman RA, eds. Research on

Technological Innovation, Management and Policy, Vol. 4. Greenwich, CT: JAI

Press, 1989:195–225.

18. Commercial Space Launch Amendments Act. US Government Printing Office.

2004. 51 U.S.C. Ch. 509, xx 70101-20.

19. Colfield C. DARPA ties XS-1 military space plane project to national security.

Space.com. 2017.

20. Tost LP. An integrative model of legitimacy judgments. Acad Manage Rev. 2011;

36(4):686–710.

21. Suchman MC. Managing legitimacy: Strategic and institutional approaches.

Acad Manage Rev. 1995; 20(3):571–610.

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CA: University of California Press, 1978.

Address correspondence to:

Ken Davidian

Email: ken.davidian@gmail.com

DAVIDIAN

102 NEW SPACE 2020 MARY ANN LIEBERT, INC.

APPENDIX. LIST OF HISTORICAL EVENT ANALYSIS EVENTS

Below is a chronological list of all Institutional Arrangement, Resource Endowment,

and Proprietary Function events discussed in this analysis. Over 95% (all but 20 of the

approximately 450 events) have citations, and those that don’t are indicated with a “cite

missing” notation. Event descriptions are preceded by dates in yyyy-mm-dd format. Date

placeholders, denoted by double upper-case letter “X,” indicate an unknown month or

date, depending where it appears in the format sequence. Abbreviations used in this

Appendix are shown in the table below.

Abbrev. Meaning A4H Astronauts 4 Hire AECA Arms Export Control ActAFRC Armstrong Flight Research CenterARC Ames Research Center AST Office of Commercial Space TransportationCCDEV Commercial Crew DevelopmentCEO Chief Executive OfficerCOE CST Center of Excellence for Commercial Space TransportationCOTS Commercial Orbital Transportation SystemCSF Commercial Spaceflight FederationCSLA Commercial Space Launch ActCSLAA Commercial Space Launch Amendments ActCSLCA Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness ActCSTR Commercial Space Transportation RegulationsDARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects AgencyDOT Department of TransportationEAA Export Administration ActEAR Export Administration RegulationsEP Experimental Permit ETC Environmental Tectonics CorporationFAA Federal Aviation AdministrationHSSFP Human Suborbital Space Flight PopulationIAC International Astronautical CongressISDC International Space Development ConferenceISPCS International Symposium for Personal Commercial SpaceflightITAR International Trade in Arms RegulationsJAA Jacksonville Aviation Authoritykm Kilometers KSC Kennedy Space Center LaRC Langley Research CenterLLC Limited Liability CompanyLSO Launch Site Operator MAV Mojave Aerospace Ventures

2 5-Jul-20

Abbrev. Meaning MIT Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMSFC Marshall Space Flight CenterNASA National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASTAR National Aerospace Training and ResearchNBC National Broadcasting CompanyNGLLC Northrop Grumman Lunar Lander ChallengeNM New Mexico NMSA New Mexico Spaceport AuthorityNS1 New Shepard One NS2 New Shepard Two NS3 New Shepard Three NSRC Next Generation Suborbital Researchers ConferenceNSS National Space SocietyOCST Office of Commercial Space TransportationOSIDA Oklahoma Space Industry Development AuthorityPAC Political Action CommitteePM2 Propulsion Module TwoPoSSUM Polar Suborbital Science in the Upper MesospherePSF Personal Spaceflight FederationRASCAL Responsive Access, Small Cargo, Affordable LaunchRR Rocket Racing SA Safety Approval SAA Space Act Agreement SARG Space Applications Research GroupSAS Space Access Society SB State Bill SBIR Small Business Innovation ResearchSC Scaled Composites SEDS Students for the Exploration and Development of SpaceSFF Space Frontier FoundationSS1 SpaceShipOne SS2 SpaceShipTwo SS2(E) SpaceShipTwo - EnterpriseSS2(U) SpaceShipTwo - Unity STTR Small Business Technology TransferSwRI Southwest Research InstituteTSC The Spaceship CompanyTX Texas U.S. United States UAE United Arab Emirates UK United Kingdom ULA United Launch AllianceVG Virgin Galactic WK1 White Knight One WK2 White Knight Two WSTF White Sands Test FacilityXCOR Not an abbreviation

5-Jul-20 3

HUMAN SUBORBITAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION POPULATION

TABLE OF INDUSTRY INFRASTRUCTURE ELEMENTS

1.0 INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS

1.1 LEGITIMATION

1.1.1 Guarantees 2010-04-07 FAA AST issues NASTAR safety approval SA 10-001 (FAA AST, 2015c). 2011-04-20 FAA AST issues ZeroG safety approval SA 11-002 (FAA AST, 2016b). 2011-06-10 FAA AST issues SpaceTEC safety approval SA 11-003 (FAA AST, 2011b). 2012-09-11 FAA AST issues NASTAR safety approval SA 12-004 (FAA AST, 2011c). 2013-03-28 FAA AST issues Black Sky Training safety approval SA 13-005 (FAA AST, 2013b). 2014-01-22 FAA AST issues Black Sky Training safety approval SA 14-006 (FAA AST, 2014e). 2014-01-23 FAA AST issues Waypoint2Space safety approval SA 14-007 (FAA AST, 2014f). 2015-04-03 FAA AST issues NASTAR safety approval SA 10-001 rev 1 (FAA AST, 2015c).

1.1.2 Endorsements 2003-07-24 Dennis Tito, Jeff Greason, et al., lobby for commercial space regulation changes (Muncy,

2017; Space.com, 2003). 2004-10-08 House Passes Resolution Honoring X PRIZE Recipients (House Science Committee, 2004) 2005-10-05 SpaceShipOne is inducted into the National Air and Space Museum (Hales, 2005). 2006-2017 XCOR lobbying expense history (OpenSecrets, 2016b). [8 events] 2012-07-13 Reimbursable space act agreement SAA2-402686 between Virgin Galactic and NASA

AFRC (NASA Partnerships, 2017).2012-07-13 Reimbursable space act agreement SAA2-402686 between Virgin Galactic and NASA ARC

(NASA Partnerships, 2017). 2012-2016 Blue Origin PAC expense history (OpenSecrets, 2016a). [3 events] 2012-2016 Virgin Galactic PAC expense history (OpenSecrets, 2016c). [3 events] 2013-12-23 Reimbursable space act agreement SAA2-402809 between Blue Origin, LLC and NASA

ARC (NASA Partnerships, 2017).2013-2017 Blue Origin lobbying expense history (OpenSecrets, 2018). [4 events] 2014-04-30 Reimbursable space act agreement SAA-RA-14-16704 between Blue Origin LLC and

NASA WSTF (NASA Partnerships, 2017).2014-04-30 Reimbursable space act agreement SAA-RA-14-16704-1 between Blue Origin LLC and

NASA WSTF (NASA Partnerships, 2017).2014-06-17 Reimbursable space act agreement SAA1-17595 between Virgin Galactic Corporation and

NASA LaRC (NASA Partnerships, 2017).2014-2017 Virgin Galactic lobbying expense history (OpenSecrets, citation needed). 2015-01-14 Non-Reimbursable space act agreement SAA1-18877 between XCOR Aerospace and

NASA LaRC (NASA Partnerships, 2017).2015-06-29 Reimbursable space act agreement SAA2-402686-2 between Virgin Galactic and NASA

ARC (NASA Partnerships, 2017).2016-04-15 Non-Reimbursable space act agreement KCA-4502 Rev. Basic between Blue Origin and

NASA KSC (NASA Partnerships, 2017).2016-04-20 Non-Reimbursable space act agreement SAA2-403106 between Virgin Galactic LLC and

NASA ARC (NASA Partnerships, 2017).2017-01-13 Reimbursable space act agreement SAA8-1724581 between Blue Origin, LLC and NASA

MSFC (NASA Partnerships, 2017).2017-03-27 Reimbursable space act agreement KCA-4514 between Blue Origin, LLC and NASA KSC

(NASA Partnerships, 2017).

4 5-Jul-20

2017-04-18 Reimbursable space act agreement SAA-RA-17-25434 between Blue Origin, LLC and NASA WSTF (NASA Partnerships, 2017).

2017-04-18 Reimbursable space act agreement SAA-RA-17-25434-01 between Blue Origin, LLC and NASA WSTF (NASA Partnerships, 2017).

2017-08-05 Non-Reimbursable space act agreement SAA-RA-17-20648 between Blue Origin, LLC and NASA WSTF (NASA Partnerships, 2017).

1.1.3 Licensing Practices 2004-04-01 FAA AST issues Scaled Composites a launch license (FAA AST, 2004). 2004-04-23 FAA AST issues XCOR a license for XERUS vehicle (Boyle, 2004). 2004-06-17 FAA AST issues Mojave Air and Spaceport a spaceport license LSO 04-009 (FAA AST,

2014c). 2006-06-12 FAA AST issues OSIDA a spaceport license LSO 06-010 (FAA AST, 2011a). 2006-09-15 FAA AST issues Blue Origin an experimental permit EP 06-001 (FAA AST, 2007). 2007-12-20 FAA AST issues Mojave Air and Spaceport a spaceport license LSO 04-009 rev 1 (FAA

AST, 2014c). 2008-09-25 FAA AST issues Mojave Air and Spaceport a spaceport license LSO 04-009 rev 2 (FAA

AST, 2014c). 2008-12-15 FAA AST issues NMSA a spaceport license LSO 08-011 (FAA AST, 2013a). 2009-05-05 FAA AST issues Mojave Air and Spaceport a spaceport license LSO 04-009 rev 3 (FAA

AST, 2014c). 2010-01-11 FAA AST issues JAA a spaceport license LSO 09-012 (FAA AST, 2015a). 2011-04-29 FAA AST issues Blue Origin an experimental permit EP 11-006 (FAA AST, 2007). 2011-05-06 FAA AST issues OSIDA a spaceport license LSO 06-010 rev 1 (FAA AST, 2011a). 2011-05-20 FAA AST issues Blue Origin an experimental permit EP 11-006 rev 1 (FAA AST, 2007). 2012-05-23 FAA AST issues Scaled Composites an experimental permit EP 12-007 (FAA AST, 2014a). 2012-07-31 FAA AST issues NMSA a spaceport license LSO 08-011 rev 1 (FAA AST, 2013a). 2013-05-22 FAA AST issues Scaled Composites an experimental permit EP 12-007 rev 1 (FAA AST,

2014a). 2013-12-09 FAA AST issues NMSA a spaceport license LSO 08-011 rev 2 (FAA AST, 2013a). 2014-02-14 FAA AST issues Blue Origin an experimental permit EP 14-009 (FAA AST, 2014b). 2014-05-21 FAA AST issues Scaled Composites an experimental permit EP 12-007 rev 2 (FAA AST,

2014a). 2014-06-13 FAA AST issues Mojave Air and Spaceport a spaceport license LSO 04-009 rev 4 (FAA

AST, 2014c). 2014-09-15 FAA AST issues Midland a spaceport license LSO 14-015 (FAA AST, 2014d). 2014-12-19 FAA AST issues Blue Origin an experimental permit EP 14-009 rev 1 (FAA AST, 2014b). 2015-01-06 FAA AST issues JAA a spaceport license LSO 09-012 rev 1 (FAA AST, 2015a). 2015-02-12 FAA AST issues Blue Origin an experimental permit EP 14-009 rev 2 (FAA AST, 2014b). 2016-02-05 FAA AST issues Blue Origin an experimental permit EP 14-009 rev 3 (FAA AST, 2014b). 2016-06-26 FAA AST issues Houston a spaceport license LSO 15-016 (FAA AST, 2015b). 2016-07-29 FAA AST issues Virgin Galactic a launch operator’s license LRLO 16-092 (FAA AST,

2016a). 2018-08-17 FAA AST issues Front Range spaceport license LSO 18-017 (FAA AST, 2018).

1.1.4 Industry Regulations

1.2 GOVERNANCE

1.2.1 Norms and Rules 2004-06-21 Mike Melvill is awarded astronaut wings, for first flight of SS1 above an altitude of 50km,

by FAA AST Associate Administrator, Patti Grace-Smith (Harwood, 2004).

5-Jul-20 5

2004-10-04 Brian Binnie is awarded astronaut wings, for first flight of SS1 above an altitude of 50km, by FAA AST Associate Administrator, Patti Grace-Smith (David, 2004)

2005-02-09 Creation of the Personal Spaceflight Federation (PSF) announced (David, 2005). 2009-06-15 Renaming of the PSF to the Commercial Spaceflight Federation (CSF) (Commercial

Spaceflight Federation, 2009) 2009-08-18 Creation of the Suborbital Applications Research Group (SARG) as a CSF committee

(SpaceNews Staff, 2009). 2019-02-10 VG SS2 pilot, Frederick Sturckow, and co-pilot, Mark Stucky receive astronaut wings from

Department of Transportation Secretary, Elaine Chao, in a public ceremony.2019-XX-XX VG SS2 pilot, Dave Mackay, co-pilot, Michael Masucci, and flight crew, Beth Moses,

receive astronaut wings in public ceremony.

1.2.2 Regulations 1976-06-30 International Trade in Arms Regulations (ITAR) adopted (Arms Export Control Act, 1976). 1979-09-29 Export Administration Regulations (EAR) adopted (Export Administration Act, 1979). 1984-10-30 Commercial Space Transportation Regulations (CSTR) adopted (Commercial Space Launch

Act, 1984). 2006-12-15 Release of Human Spaceflight Requirements for Crew and Space Flight Participants

(Federal Aviation Administration, 2006).2014-08-27 Release of Recommended Practices for Human Space Flight Occupant Safety (Federal

Aviation Administration, 2014).2017-04-04 Release of Guidance on informing crew and space flight participants of risk. Version 1.1

(Federal Aviation Administration, 2017).

1.2.3 Laws (including Regulation Authorization) 1967-01-27 U.S. adopts the Outer Space Treaty (U.S. Department of State, 1967). 1976-06-30 Arms Export Control Act (AECA) signed into law (Arms Export Control Act, 1976). 1979-09-29 Export Administration Act (EAA) signed into law (Export Administration Act, 1979). 1984-10-30 CSLA bill signed into law, and creates the Office of Commercial Space Transportation

(OCST) within the Department of Transportation (Commercial Space Launch Act, 1984). 1995-XX-XX CSTR authority transferred from DOT OCST to FAA AST by executive order (cite

missing). 1999-07-01 Oklahoma creates the Oklahoma Space Industry Development Authority (State of

Oklahoma, 1999). 2001-05-24 Oklahoma passes a transferrable tax credit law for Rocketplane (Lauer, 2017; State of

Oklahoma, 2001). 2004-12-24 CSLAA signed into law (Commercial Space Launch Amendments Act, 2004). 2005-04-04 New Mexico Spaceport Authority created (State of New Mexico, 2005c). 2005-2016 New Mexico passes multiple spaceport appropriation bills (State of New Mexico, 2005a,

2007d, 2013a, 2014c, 2015, 2016b, 2007a, 2008a, 2008c, 2009a, 2010b, 2010a, 2011, 2012a).2005-2016 New Mexico passes multiple spaceport authorization bills (State of New Mexico, 2005b,

2006b, 2013b, 2013c, 2014b, 2016a, 2016c, 2006c, 2006a, 2007b, 2007e, 2007c, 2008b, 2009b, 2012b). [1 or 15 events]

2007-04-11 Virginia passes a limited liability and civil immunity law (State of Virginia, 2007). 2008-06-17 Florida passes liability immunity and requires informed consent for suborbital flight

participants (State of Florida, 2008).2010-2013 New Mexico passes informed consent laws SB 9 and SB 240 (State of New Mexico, 2010c,

2013d). 2011-03-25 Virginia passes a tax exemption law for commercial human spaceflight (State of Virginia,

2011). 2011-06-14 Florida gives permission for Cecil Field to become spaceport (Wood, 2011). 2012-02-16 Florida passes spaceport facilities law (State of Florida, 2012a). 2012-04-13 Florida creates spaceport territory for Cecil Field (State of Florida, 2012b). 2012-05-10 Hawaii passes a law to appropriate funds for a spaceport license (State of Hawaii, 2012).

6 5-Jul-20

2012-09-21 California passes space flight liability and immunity law (State of California, 2012). 2013-04-02 New Mexico passes spaceflight informed consent act (State of New Mexico, 2013d). 2014-03-11 New Mexico passes spaceport financial bill (State of New Mexico, 2014a). 2014-04-28 California passes tax exemption law for space flight property (State of California, 2014b). 2014-06-14 California passes informed consent law (State of California, 2014a). 2015-11-25 CSLCA bill signed into law (Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act, 2016).

1.3 TECHNOLOGY STANDARDS

1.3.1 Government Regulatory Mandates

1.3.2 Cooperative, Voluntary Industry Standards 2015-05-XX Industry consensus propellant handling standards developed (CSF, 2015).

1.3.3 Market-driven, de facto Standards

2.0 RESOURCE ENDOWMENTS

2.1 SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL RESEARCH

2.1.1 Government Contract R&D Results 1955-1956 U.S. Air Force’s X-2 vehicle performs 13 test flights (“X-2,” 2018) 1957-09-27 Fatal accident during an X-2 test flight (“X-2,” 2018). 1959-1969 U.S. Air Force’s X-15 vehicle performs 340 test flights (“X-15A,” 2018). 1961-05-05 First suborbital flight of NASA’s Project Mercury (Gunter’s Space Page, 2018). 1961-07-21 Second suborbital flight of NASA’s Project Mercury (Gunter’s Space Page, 2018). 1967-11-15 Fatal accident during an X-15 test flight (“X-15 Flight 191,” 2018) 1968-1970 U.S. Air Force’s HL-10 vehicle performs 37 test flights (“HL-10,” 2018) 1970-1971 U.S. Air Force’s X-24A vehicle performs 28 test flights (“X-24A,” 2018) 1970-1972 U.S. Air Force’s M2-F3 vehicle performs 43 test flights (“M2-F3,” 2018) 1973-1975 U.S. Air Force’s X-24B vehicle performs 36 test flights (“X-24B,” 2018) 1990-1996 Delta Clipper Program (“Delta Clipper,” 2018)

2.1.2 Government Grant R&D Results 2010-08-18 FAA AST announces selection of COE CST universities (Price, 2010). 2010-09-01 FAA AST awards COE CST universities $1,500,000 for suborbital research (Center of

Excellence for Commercial Space Transportation, 2012).2011-06-01 FAA AST awards COE CST universities $260,000 suborbital research (Center of

Excellence for Commercial Space Transportation, 2013).2012-06-01 FAA AST awards COE CST universities $1,400,000 suborbital research (Center of

Excellence for Commercial Space Transportation, 2014).2013-06-01 FAA AST awards COE CST universities $830,000 suborbital research (Center of

Excellence for Commercial Space Transportation, 2015).2014-06-01 FAA AST awards COE CST universities $1,000,000 suborbital research (Center of

Excellence for Commercial Space Transportation, 2016).2015-06-01 FAA AST awards COE CST universities $810,000 suborbital research (Center of

Excellence for Commercial Space Transportation, 2017).2016-06-01 FAA AST awards COE CST universities $500,000 suborbital research (Center of

Excellence for Commercial Space Transportation, 2017).

2.2 FINANCIAL ARRANGEMENTS

2.2.1 SBIR Funding 2002-01-01 Navy gives SBIR Phase 1 award of $98,335 to XCOR (“Metal truss X-cor structures for

marine expeditionary fighting vehicles,” 2002).

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2003-01-01 DARPA gives STTR Phase 2 contract of $750K to XCOR (“Piston pump for rocket propellant applications,” 2003).

2005-01-01 Air Force gives SBIR Phase 1 award of $98,867 to XCOR (“Advanced regeneratively cooled LOx / methane rocket engine with innovative injector design,” 2005).

2007-01-01 Air Force gives SBIR Phase 1 award of $99.935 to XCOR (“Hardware component prototyping for operationally responsive space access,” 2007).

2008-01-01 Air Force gives SBIR Phase 1 award of $99,207 to XCOR (“Variable thrust liquid or gel propulsion for mission flexibility,” 2008).

2008-01-01 Air Force gives SBIR Phase 1 award of $99,675 to XCOR (“High propellant throughput microthrusters for next-generation nanosatellites,” 2008).

2008-01-01 Air Force gives SBIR Phase 2 award of $749,513 to XCOR (“Hardware component prototyping for operationally responsive space access,” 2007).

2011-01-01 NASA gives SBIR Phase 1 award of $99,859 to XCOR (“Cryogenic composite tank fabrication for reusable launch vehicles,” 2011).

2015-01-01 NASA gives SBIR Phase 1 award of $125,000 to Blue Origin (“Thermo-catalytic ignition of cryogenic oxygen-methane,” 2015).

2.2.2 Government Contract Funding 2001-2005 DARPA Responsive Access, Small Cargo, Affordable Launch (RASCAL) program (“DARPA

selects Space Launch Corp. for second phase of RASCAL,” 2003; “RASCAL - Responsive Access, Small Cargo, Affordable Launch / SLC-1,” 2011).

2005-04-01 XCOR awarded $1.1M NASA contract ($0.5M in 2005 and $0.6M in 2006) for cryogenic tank development (“NASA-XCOR Contract NNM05AB14C,” 2018).

2010-01-30 Blue Origin awarded $3.6M in NASA Commercial Crew Development (CCDEV) Phase 1 (NASA Johnson Space Center, 2010).

2011-04-18 Blue Origin awarded $22M in NASA CCDEV Phase 2 (NASA, 2011). 2014-07-01 Blue Origin-Boeing team awarded $4M XS-1 contract from DARPA (Wall, 2015). 2014-07-01 Masten-XCOR team awarded $3M XS-1 contract from DARPA (Federal Business

Opportunities, 2014) 2014-07-01 VG-Northrop team awarded $4M XS-1 contract from DARPA (Wall, 2015). 2014-09-18 Virgin Galactic awarded $100K NASA contract for payload integration (“National Aeronautics

and Space Administration NND14AP03B-NND14AP13T To Virgin Galactic LLC $100k,” 2018).2015-08-08 Blue Origin-Boeing team receives DARPA XS-1 Phase B contract (Wall, 2015). 2015-08-08 Masten-XCOR team receives DARPA XS-1 Phase B contract (Wall, 2015). 2015-08-08 Virgin Galactic-Northrop team receives DARPA XS-1 Phase B contract (Wall, 2015). 2015-09-30 Virgin Galactic awarded $3.1M NASA contract for a satellite launch, but it is unknown if

payment was ever made, since VG never flew (GSA FPDS, 2018).2016-03-24 Virgin Galactic contract with NASA for $0.5M (GSA FPDS, 2018). 2016-09-28 Virgin Galactic contract with NASA for $1.1M (GSA FPDS, 2018).

2.2.3 Non-Equity Investment 2003-XX-XX Rocketplane converts $15M of transferrable tax credits into $12M cash, calls it the “O” Prize

(De Keyser, 2005) 2010-10-18 FAA AST awards Space Transportation Infrastructure Matching Grants for $273K to three

HSSFP spaceports of in 2010 (FAA AST, 2013c; Kinney, 2010).2011-08-26 FAA AST awards Space Transportation Infrastructure Matching Grants for $374K to two

HSSFP spaceports of in 2011 (FAA AST, 2013c; Messier, 2011).2012-09-25 FAA AST awards Space Transportation Infrastructure Matching Grants for $474K to three

HSSFP spaceports of in 2012 (FAA AST, 2013c; Price, 2012).2013-07-12 Midland Development Corp. gives XCOR a $10M loan that didn’t have to be repaid if certain

milestones were met (Petty, 2012).

2.2.4 Equity Investment 2000-01-09 Jeff Bezos invests $500M in Blue Origin (Bryce Space and Technology, 2017).

8 5-Jul-20

2002-XX-XX Paul Allen invests $28M in Scaled Composites for SpaceShipOne (Allen, 2012; Doughton, 2004; Foust, 2011; NASA, 2010).

2003-04-16 XCOR Secures $187,500 Equity Investment (XCOR Aerospace, 2003). 2003-XX-XX George French invests $10M in Rocketplane (Lauer, 2017) 2004-01-01 The Virgin Group invests $100M in Virgin Galactic (Bryce Space and Technology, 2017). 2007-06-07 XCOR receives investment from Boston Harbor Angels (XCOR, 2007). 2008-08-19 XCOR gets first institutional investor: Desert Sky holdings (XCOR, 2008). 2009-07-28 Aabar (UAE) invests $280M in Virgin Galactic (MSNBC, 2009). 2011-10-19 Aabar invests an additional $110M in Virgin Galactic (Malas, 2011). 2012-02-27 XCOR raises $5M of equity funding (XCOR, 2012a). 2012-XX-XX Space Florida invests $3M in XCOR (XCOR, 2012b). 2014-05-27 XCOR raises $14.2M equity investment (P. de Selding, 2014). 2015-05-26 XCOR raises $5M of equity investment (Knapp, 2015). 2015-08-06 Jeff Bezos raises $500M selling Amazon stock (Computer Business Review, 2015). 2015-09-15 Bezos invests $200M into Blue Origin (Klotz, 2015).

2.2.5 Industry-Wide Stimuli 1996-05-18 X PRIZE Foundation announces X PRIZE competition (Uhlenbrock, 1996) 2004-05-05 X PRIZE announces title sponsor, Ansari (Linehan, 2011). 2004-11-06 X PRIZE awards $10M to Burt Rutan (X PRIZE Foundation, 2004). 2005-10-03 Rocket Racing League announced (Malik, 2005; Rocket Racing League, 2005). 2005-10-11 Announcement of NASA Centennial Challenges Lunar Landing Prize (Harrington & Braukus,

2005). 2006-10-10 Wirefly.com sponsors X PRIZE Cup event (Murphy & Cohen, 2006). 2008-10-26 NGLLC awards $350K to Armadillo Aerospace (David, 2008c). 2009-11-05 NGLLC awards $1.65M in award ceremony (NASA CC, 2009). 2014 Rocket Racing League ceases operation (Cole, 2017).

2.3 HUMAN COMPETENCE POOL

2.3.1 Educational Programs 1987-04-XX International Space University conducts first Summer Session Program (Marshall, 1988). 1987-XX-XX University of North Dakota conducts its first Space Studies program (University of North

Dakota, 2018). 1995-XX-XX International Space University conducts first Master of Space Studies program (cite

missing). 2011-01-05 International Space University conducts first Southern Hemisphere Space Studies program

(Nardelli, 2010; Schwob & Nardelli, 2012)2013-09-XX Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University initiates its Commercial Spaceflight Operations

program, later renamed to Space Flight Operations (Plafke, 2013).

2.3.2 Recruitment and Training 2004-XX-XX Rocketplane employment in 2004 is 60-70 (Lauer, 2017). 2004-XX-XX Scaled Composites total employment in 2004 is approximately 125 people. (David, 2007b) 2005-XX-XX XCOR employment in 2005 is 17 (Nelson, 2017; Rodway, 2017). 2006-XX-XX Rocketplane employment in 2006 is 30 (Lauer, 2017). 2007-XX-XX Scaled Composites total employment in 2007 is approximately 250 people. (David, 2007b) 2008-02-XX Futron Training Survey Report released (Futron Corporation, 2008). 2008-XX-XX XCOR employment in 2008 is 30-35 (Nelson, 2017; Rodway, 2017). 2010-05-17 VG names George Whitesides as first CEO (Virgin Galactic, 2010). 2010-12-23 VG President Will Whitehorn announces retirement. George Whitesides to become CEO and

President (Foust, 2010).

5-Jul-20 9

2010-XX-XX Astronauts 4 Hire (A4H) begins operation (Livingston, 2010). 2011-05-19 Formation of NASTAR Foundation announced (cite missing). 2011-XX-XX XCOR employment in 2011 is 25-30 (Nelson, 2017; Rodway, 2017). 2012-02-26 ETC National Aerospace Training and Research (NASTAR) Center announces commercial

space training courses (ETC, 2012).2012-XX-XX XCOR employment in 2012 is 50 (Nelson, 2017; Rodway, 2017). 2013-07-10 Steven J. Isakowitz named as President of Virgin Galactic LLC (Virgin Galactic, 2013) 2014-XX-XX Blue Origin employment approximately 350 on Sept 14, 2014. (“FAQ- ULA AND BLUE

ORIGIN PARTNERSHIP,” n.d.) (source: http://www.ulalaunch.com/faq-ula-and-blue-origin-partnership.aspx)

2014-XX-XX Virgin Galactic total employment in 2014 is approximately 400 people. (Cofield, 2015)Cofield, C. (2015).

2014-XX-XX XCOR employment in 2014 is 80 (Nelson, 2017; Rodway, 2017). 2015-XX-XX Virgin Galactic total employment in 2015 is over 500 people. (Cofield, 2015) 2015-XX-XX XCOR employment in 2015 is 110 (Nelson, 2017; Rodway, 2017). 2016-10-13 Mike Moses named Virgin Galactic president (Foust, 2016c). 2016-10-13 Virgin employment at 700, stated in a presentation by Mike Moses at ISPCS (International

Symposium for Personal and Commercial Spacepflight, 2016a).2016-10-13 Blue employment currently at 800, double from previous year as stated in presentation by Rob

Meyerson at ISPCS (International Symposium for Personal and Commercial Spacepflight, 2016b).2016-10-16 Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University initiates its PoSSUM program (Roddey, 2016). 2016-XX-XX Blue Origin employment on Nov 1, 2016: 800, stated in a presentation by Clay Mowry talk

at IAC Planning Meeting. 2016-XX-XX XCOR employment in 2016 is 50-60 (Nelson, 2017; Rodway, 2017). 2017-XX-XX Blue Origin employment on Dec 19, 2017: 1,400, Jeff Foust on Twitter: "Wagner: when I

joined Blue Origin 5.5 years ago, company had 170 employees. We just hit 1,400." 2017-XX-XX Blue Origin employment on March 26, 2017: 1,024, stated in a presentation by Clay Mowry

talk at IAC Planning Meeting. 2018-XX-XX Blue Origin employment on 11 March 2018: 1,400, stated in a presentation by Erika Wagner

at the MIT New Space Age Conference, Cambridge, MA.2019-10-29 Virgin Galactic reports having 721 employees (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission,

2019). 2019-11-29 Blue Origin has 2,500 employees (Boyle, 2019).

2.3.3 Knowledge Sharing 1982-05-XX First National Space Society (NSS) International Space Development Conference (ISDC) held

(NSS, 2018). 1982-1997 Students for the Exploration and Development of Space Conference held (Lewicki, 2018) 2004-Present Annual Students for the Exploration and Development of Space (SEDS) conference, last held

in 1997, resumes under the name of SpaceVision, in 2004 (cite missing).1991-2005 Space Frontier Foundation (SFF) Space Frontier Conferences held (“Past Events,” 2018). 1993-04-XX First Space Access Society (SAS) Conference held (Werner, 2011). 1998-Present The FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation annual conference, originally called

the Commercial Space Transportation Forecast Conference at least through 2000, and renamed to the FAA Commercial Space Transportation Conference by 2005) (Blakey, 2005; FAA AST, 1998).

1999-2011 Space Frontier Foundation (SFF) Space Enterprise Symposium, Lunar Commerce Roundtables, and Space Investment Summits held (“Past Events,” 2018).

2005-2007 X PRIZE Cup events were held (Seibold et al., 2008). 2005-Present Annual International Symposium on Personal and Commercial Spaceflight (ISPCS)

(originally called International Symposium on Personal Spaceflight) held (“Past ISPCS,” 2018).2006-Present Space Frontier Foundation (SFF) NewSpace Conferences held (“Past Events,” 2018).

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2008-Present Next Generation Suborbital Researchers Conference (NSRC) held (“NSRC Home,” 2018). The first meeting in 2008, was called the Human-Tended Suborbital Science Workshop, held San Francisco, CA (Werner, 2009).

2011-08-03 SpaceRef announces creation of Space Quarterly Magazine (SpaceRef, 2011).

3.0 PROPRIETARY FUNCTIONS

3.1 TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT FUNCTIONS

3.1.1 Applied R&D 1999-01-26 SC receives patent for Method of manufacturing composite articles (Patent No.

USOO5863365A, 1999) 1999-02-16 Rocketplane Global receives patent for Reusable rocket airplane (Patent No.

USOOD405750S, 1999). 1999-11-02 SC receives patent for Aircraft with removable structural payload module (Rutan, 1999) 2000-08-29 SC receives patent for Composite structural panel having a face sheet reinforced with a

channel stiffener grid (Patent No. USOO6110567A, 2000)2000-09-19 Rocketplane Global receives patent for Reusable rocket-propelled high altitude airplane and

method and apparatus for mid-air oxidizer transfer to said airplane (Patent No. USOO611.9985A, 2000).

2001-03-27 SC receives patent for Fabrication of structure having structural layers and layers of controllable electrical, or magnetic properties (Patent No. USOO6207003B1, 2001)

2001-08-21 SC receives patent for Tensioned structural composite joint (Patent No. USOO6276866B1, 2001)

2006-10-05 XCOR receives patent for Process for producing continuous fiber reinforced thermoplastic composites (Patent No. US 20060222811A1, 2006)

2007-08-23 RR receives patent for Rocket-powered vehicle racing information system (Patent No. US 20070 1941.71 A1, 2007)

2007-10-30 RR receives patent for Rocket-powered vehicle racing competition (Patent No. USOO7287722B2, 2007)

2008-09-11 RR receives patent for Collection and distribution system (Patent No. US 20080221745A1, 2008)

2008-10-23 XCOR receives patent for Vehicles incorporating tanks for carrying cryogenic fluids and methods for forming such tanks (Patent No. US 2008025.6960A1, 2008)

2010-01-28 TSC receives patent for Composite flight control cables (Patent No. US 20100019082A1, 2010)

2010-03-23 TSC receives patent for Aircraft/spacecraft combination (Patent No. USOOD612317S, 2010)

2010-03-30 TSC receives patent for Aircraft (Patent No. USOOD612791S, 2010). 2010-04-22 RR receives patent for Rocket-powered entertainment vehicle (Patent No. US 2010

0096491A1, 2010) 2010-08-31 XCOR receives patent for Partial superheat cycle for operating a pump in a rocket system

(Patent No. USOO7784268B1, 2010)2010-08-31 XCOR receives patent for System and method for cooling rocket engines (Patent No.

USOO7784269B1, 2010) 2010-10-19 TSC receives patent for Spacecraft (Patent No. USOOD62.5679S, 2010) 2010-12-16 Blue Origin receives patent for Predicting and correcting trajectories (Patent No. US

20100314487A1, 2010). 2010-12-21 XCOR receives patent for Rocket combustion chamber with jacket (Patent No.

US007854395B1, 2010) 2010-12-30 Blue Origin receives patent for Bidirectional control surfaces for use with high speed

vehicles, and associated systems and methods (Patent No. US 20100327107A1, 2010). 2010-12-30 Blue Origin receives patent for Multiple-use rocket engines and associated systems and

methods (Patent No. US 20100326.045A1, 2010).

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2011-01-27 Blue Origin receives patent for Sea landing of space launch vehicles and associated systems and methods (Patent No. US 20110017872A1, 2011).

2011-03-08 XCOR receives patent for Micro-coaxial injector for rocket engine (Patent No. US00790.0435B1, 2011)

2011-05-12 Blue Origin receives patent for Contoured roller system and associated methods and resulting articles of manufacture (Patent No. US 2011 01 07808A1, 2011).

2011-12-15 Blue Origin receives patent for Eyeball seals for gimbaled rocket engines, and associated systems and methods (Patent No. US 2011 0302905A1, 2011).

2012-07-12 XCOR receives patent for High-speed check valve suitable for cryogens and high reverse pressure (Patent No. US 20120177510A1, 2012)

2012-11-29 Blue Origin receives patent for Inflatable ring for supporting friction welding workpieces, and associated systems and methods (Patent No. US 20120298725A1, 2012).

2013-04-02 Blue Origin receives patent for Launch vehicles with fixed and deployable deceleration surfaces, and/or shaped fuel tanks, and associated systems and methods (Patent No. USOO8408497B2, 2013).

2013-04-23 Blue Origin receives patent for Compensating for wind prior to engaging airborne propulsion devices (Patent No. USOO8424808B2, 2013).

2014-09-18 Blue Origin receives patent for Launch vehicles with ring-shaped external elements, and associated systems and methods (Patent No. US 20140263841A1, 2014).

2015-07-14 Blue Origin receives patent for Composite structures for aerospace vehicles, and associated systems and methods (Patent No. US009079674B1, 2015).

2015-12-22 Blue Origin receives patent for Rocket turbopump valves and associated systems and methods (Patent No. USOO921 7389B1, 2015).

2017-12-07 Blue Origin receives patent for Severe weather agility thrusters, and associated systems and methods (Patent No. US20170349301A, 2017).

2018-06-28 Blue Origin receives patent for Vertical landing systems for space vehicles and associated methods (Patent No. US20180178930A1, 2018).

3.1.2 Manufacturing

3.1.3 Testing 2002-08-01 SC WK1 first flight (Scaled Composites, 2004b). 2002-11-21 SC SS1 first rocket motor test firing (Scaled Composites, 2003a). 2003-05-20 SC SS1 first captive carry flight under WK1 (Scaled Composites, 2004a). 2003-05-21 SC SS1 ground tests started (Scaled Composites, 2003b). 2003-08-07 SC SS1 first glide test flight (Scaled Composites, 2004a). 2003-08-27 SC SS1 third (final) captive carry flight under WK1 (Scaled Composites, 2004a). 2003-10-21 SC SS1 ground tests concluded (Scaled Composites, 2003b). 2003-11-18 SC SS1 twelfth (final) rocket motor test firing (Scaled Composites, 2003a). 2003-12-17 SC SS1 first powered test flight (Scaled Composites, 2004a). 2004-03-11 SC SS1 eighth (final) glide test flight (Scaled Composites, 2004a). 2004-06-14 SC WK1 fifty-ninth (final) test flight (Scaled Composites, 2004b). 2004-06-21 SC SS1 first powered flight to 100km (Scaled Composites, 2004a). 2004-09-29 SC SS1 successfully makes first X PRIZE flight (Scaled Composites, 2004a). 2004-10-04 SC SS1 sixth (final) powered test flight to win the X PRIZE (Scaled Composites, 2004a). 2005-03-05 Blue Origin Charon first flight test (Seattle Museum of Flight, 2018). 2006-11-13 Blue Origin Goddard conducts first flight test (J. Bezos, 2018). 2007-03-22 Blue Origin Goddard conducts second flight test (Gunter’s Space Page, 2017). 2007-04-19 Blue Origin Goddard conducts third (final) test flight (CrustySeaDog, 2018). 2007-07-26 Three Scaled Composites employees dead in tank explosion (David, 2007b) 2008-12-21 VG WK2 first flight test (without SS2) (Scaled Composites, 2014c) 2009-04-20 VG SS2(E) first rocket motor test firing (Scaled Composites, 2014a).

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2010-03-22 VG SS2(E) first captive carry test flight (Scaled Composites, 2014c). 2010-10-10 VG SS2(E) first glide test flight (Scaled Composites, 2014c). 2011-05-06 Blue Origin PM2 first flight test (Blue Origin, 2013; CrustySeaDog, 2018). 2011-08-24 Blue Origin PM2 second (final) test flight ends in explosion (Boyle, 2011; CrustySeaDog,

2018). 2011-11-09 SwRI personnel test pressure suits (Southwest Research Institute, 2011). 2012-07-16 VG SS2(E) sixteenth (final) captive carry test flight (Scaled Composites, 2014c). 2013-04-12 VG SS2(E) first cold flow flight test (Scaled Composites, 2014b). 2013-04-29 VG SS2(E) first powered test flight (Scaled Composites, 2014b). 2014-04-12 VG WK2 ninety-seventh (final) flight test (without SS2(E)) (Scaled Composites, 2014c). 2014-08-28 VG SS2(E) second (final) cold flow flight test (Scaled Composites, 2014b). 2014-10-07 VG SS2(E) thirtieth (final) glide test flight (Scaled Composites, 2014b). 2014-10-09 VG SS2(E) fifty-seventh (final) rocket motor test firing (Scaled Composites, 2014a). 2014-10-31 VG SS2(E) fourth (final) powered test flight, that ended in vehicle breakup, killing the co-

pilot, and severely injuring the pilot (Malik, 2014).2015-04-29 Blue Origin New Shepard One (NS1) first (final) flight test ends in loss of vehicle

(CrustySeaDog, 2018; Howell, 2018).2015-11-23 Blue Origin New Shepard Two (NS2) first flight test (Howell, 2018). 2016-10-05 Blue Origin NS2 fifth (final) flight test (Gunter’s Space Page, 2018; Howell, 2018). 2016-09-08 VG SS2(U) first captive carry flight test (Malik, 2016). 2016-11-30 VG SS2(U) completes fourth (final) captive carry flight test (SpaceFlight Insider, 2016). 2016-12-03 VG SS2(U) first glide flight test (Foust, 2016d). 2017-12-12 Blue Origin NS3 first flight test (Foust, 2013). 2018-01-11 VG SS2(U) seventh (final) glide flight test (Virgin Galactic, 2018). 2018-04-05 VG SS2(U) first powered flight test to 25.7 km (Wall, 2018a). 2018-04-29 Blue Origin NS3 second flight test (Harwood, 2018) 2018-05-29 VG SS2(U) second powered flight test to 34.9 km (Wall, 2018b). 2018-07-18 Blue Origin NS3 third flight test (Clark, 2018). 2018-07-26 VG SS2(U) third powered flight test to 52.1 km (Doubek, 2018). 2018-12-13 VG SS2(U) fourth powered flight test to 82.7 km (O’Collaghan, 2018). 2019-01-23 Blue Origin NS3 fourth flight test (Wall, 2019) 2019-02-22 VG SS2(U) fifth powered flight test to 89.9 km (Bartels, 2019).

3.2 INNOVATION NETWORK AND RESOURCE CHANNEL ACTIVITIES

3.2.1 Appropriation of Common Goods 2015-11-23 XCOR co-founders leave company (Foust, 2015a). 2016-05-27 XCOR lays off employees to focus on engine development (Foust, 2016a).

3.2.2 Vendor-Supplier-Distributor Channels 1990 NMSA Initial Proposal by Burton Lee (Matlock, 2013) 1992 Precursor to NMSA, Southwest Regional Spaceport Taskforce, created (Hil, 2006; McNiel, 2006). 1998 Mojave Air and Space Port started with Rotary Rocket agreement (cite missing). 2001-2004 Scaled Composites and Paul Allen establish Mojave Aerospace Ventures, MAV (Choi,

2014). 2002-03-23 Oklahoma Spaceport Grand Opening with Rocketplane agreement (May, 2002) 2005-04-15 Van Horn site select by Blue Origin for private spaceport (Harris, 2005) 2005-07-28 The Spaceship Company, SS2 manufacturing company, formed under partnership by Virgin

Galactic (70% ownership) and Scaled Composites (30% ownership) (Howell, 2016; SpaceNews, 2012).

2006 JAA starts talking with Rocketplane (Lauer, 2017)

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2006-04-04 NMSA Construction starts (Haussamen, 2006). 2012 NMSA Construction ends (Renter’a, 2011) 2012-06-07 VG opens office in Las Cruces, NM (Virgin Galactic, 2012). 2012-07-09 Midland Air Field signs deal with XCOR (Ballinger, 2012) 2012-10-08 VG acquires The Spaceship Company (SpaceNews, 2012). 2014-04-10 Ellington Field signs deal with Sierra Nevada Space (Painter, 2014) 2014-06-30 XCOR acquires Space Expedition Corp. (Barth, 2014). 2018-08-20 Front Range receives FAA spaceport license (Aguilar, 2018).

3.3 MARKET CREATION AND CONSUMER DEMAND

3.3.1 Marketing 2003-04-18 Burt Rutan's Scaled Composites introduces SpaceShipOne (Bostwick, 2003). 2004-12-07 Oracle/Space Adventures contest announced (Chellam, 2004). 2005-02-03 Volvo announces suborbital space tourism contest (Kelleher, 2005). 2005-02-06 Announcement of 7Up suborbital contest (Skeen, 2005). 2005-02-18 Nidar suborbital contest announced (De Keyser, 2005). 2005-03-24 Volvo/VG contest winner announced (McGhee, 2005). 2005-09-30 Quirk Books and Space Adventures flight contest (cite missing). 2005-10-05 GameTrust "edge of space" MIG 25 ride contest announced (cite missing). 2005-10-09 SpaceShot and Rocketplane skill game for flight contest (Armstrong, 2005). 2005-11-27 Plantronics contest announced (Plantronics, 2005). 2006-01-10 Oracle contest won by San Jose programmer and European (“Student to Be First Korean in

Space,” 2006). 2006-01-18 GameTrust contest won (Twitchell, 2006). 2006-03-01 Space Tourism Wiki “Reach for the Stars Contest” contest (Wight, 2006). 2006-06-25 Opoly game with space flight prize announced (cite missing). 2006-11-18 “The Station” contest, suborbital flight for runner-up (Ellegood, 2006). 2006-11-25 galaxy32.com game suborbital flight is grand prize (Dempsey, 2006). 2006-12-06 Virgin Galactic an the Royal Aeronautical Society announce a contest to win a flight on

SpaceShipTwo (“Win a flight on SpaceShipTwo from the Royal Aeronautical Society,” 2007).2007-01-08 Windows and AMD announce Global Puzzle prize (“Cruise , travel shows coming to Tulsa ,

city,” 2007). 2007-02-01 Audi and New Scientist announce prize (“Your chance to win a place in space,” 2007). 2007-03-07 Australia suborbital contest (Murray, 2007). 2007-07-25 Gillette announces a suborbital spaceflight contest for Canadians (Christensen, 2007). 2007-09-03 Belgian suborbital spaceflight contest announced (cite missing). 2008-01-09 Century Race announced with few details (cite missing). 2008-01-24 India Bindass/Bingo Go To Space contest begins (“His own space,” 2008). 2008-03-25 XCOR announcement of Lynx vehicle project (Pasztor, 2008). 2008-05-23 Coconut Creek casino offers space travel prize (cite missing). 2008-07-28 VG unveils WhiteKnight2 (David, 2008b; Howell, 2016). 2008-09-10 Voyage2Space.com raffle announced (Fleming, 2008). 2009-02-25 Virgin Blue Airlines contest (cite missing). 2009-06-19 NMSA groundbreaking event (Kinney, 2009). 2009-07-01 Guinness announces suborbital ride contest (“Guinness offers drinkers chance to win space

flight,” 2009). 2009-12-07 VG unveils second SpaceShipTwo (Howell, 2016; Paur, 2009b). 2010-05-02 InterCasino UK suborbital spaceflight contest (cite missing). 2010-11-13 Ares Institute announces suborbital contest (Klotz, 2010).

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2011-03-15 TripAletrz.com Free Trip to Space contest (Drake, 2011). 2011-05-15 Peugeot offers suborbital space flight as top prize in 3008 Crossover vehicle competition

(Peugeot Motor Company, 2011).2011-06-22 7-Eleven launches suborbital flight sweepstakes (DeClemente, 2011). 2011-06-10 KSC Star Trek sweepstakes for XCOR flight (Farmer & McRae, 2011). 2011-06-13 NSS top Space Ambassador to receive VG SS2 flight (Brandt-Erichsen, 2011). 2011-08-03 SpaceRef announces creation of Space Quarterly Magazine (SpaceRef, 2011). 2011-10-23 Space Adventures/Red Gate Software contest (The Mill, 2011). 2011-11-15 XCOR/SwRI contest (XCOR, 2011). 2011-12-21 Red Gate DBA contest winner opts for cast in lieu of spaceflight (Redgate Software, 2011). 2012-01-25 Space Adventures donates suborbital flight to Guardian Angel Motorsports (Johnson, 2012). 2012-03-14 Metro news publisher announces contest with XCOR/SpaceXC in Curacao (Messier, 2012). 2012-05-07 Citizens in Space and XCOR announce challenge (Citizens in Space, 2012). 2012-05-10 I Dream of Space holds spaceflight drawing (Biberović, 2013). 2012-07-24 Virgin America announces frequent flier suborbital prize (Booth, 2012). 2012-09-15 VG announces they will fly one citizen from each NM county to space (Soular, 2012). 2013-04-13 KLM opens space tourism contest (KLM, 2013). 2013-05-07 VG raises ticket prices from $200K to $250K (Wall, 2013). 2013-09-30 London Evening Standard sponsors XCOR Lynx prize drawing (Prigg & Prynn, 2013). 2013-10-03 NBC to host "Space Race" reality show (Kramer, 2013). 2014-04-21 VG & Aabar Investments sponsor prize flight for UAE citizen (Cornwell, 2014). 2014-05-08 Urgency Network and XCOR offer prize flight on Lynx (McKinney, 2014). 2014-09-02 VG/Land Rover contest announced (Howell, 2014). 2014-10-31 Fandango/XCOR contest announced (Pomerantz, 2014). 2015-08-05 Kruger Crowne and One Young World sponsor Rising Star contest (One Young World,

2015). 2016-02-19 VG unveils second SpaceShipTwo (Foust, 2016b).

3.3.2 Cultural Norms

3.3.3 Consumer Demand 2005-01-02 VG to start ticket sales this year (Tozzi, 2005). 2005-04-27 VG has 100 paid deposits for SS2 rides (cite missing). 2005-10-05 VG has 178 tix/$10M (cite missing). 2005-12-12 VG announces 85 tickets sold (Sinclair, 2005). 2006-03-31 VG reports 157 tickets sold (Beveridge, 2006). 2006-08-18 Rocketplane selected for NASA COTS program (Baldwin, 2016). 2007-03-28 VG announces sales of 200 tickets (Watts, 2007). 2007-07-03 VG announces 200 ticket deposits sold (David, 2007a). 2007-09 Rocketplane fails to meet financial milestone, and is removed from the COTS program

(Baldwin, 2016). 2008-01-28 VG article says about 200 ticket reservations sold, flights about 2 years away (Simmie,

2008). 2008-01-31 VG announces ticket number 190 sold (Horne, 2008). 2008-06-07 VG says it has sold 254 ticket reservations (David, 2008a). 2008-11-08 VG announces 280 tickets sold (Swant, 2008). 2009-03-30 VG announces 200 ticket deposits sold (T. Clark, 2009). 2009-09-11 VG announces 300 ticket reservations sold (Paur, 2009a). 2010-03-29 VG has taken is about $45M for 330 ticket reservations (Foley, 2010). 2010-08-30 NASA awards two contracts worth $475K to NGLLC winners (Steitz, 2010).

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2010-11-30 VG announces 500 ticket reservations sold (Boyle, 2010). 2011-02-24 SwRI buys six XCOR Lynx flights (Gaherty, 2011). 2011-02-28 VG announces 400 ticket deposits received (Malik, 2011). 2011-05-13 NASA has selected 16 payloads for flights on the commercial Zero-G parabolic aircraft and

two suborbital reusable launch vehicles (Alexander, 2011).2011-08-12 NASA Selects 7 Firms for Suborbital Flight Contract worth up to $10M (Steitz, 2011). 2011-10-13 NASA awards Virgin Galactic a $4.5M contract for three SS2 research flights (Howell,

2016; Virgin Galactic, 2011). 2011-10-18 VG announces 450 ticket deposits sold (Wall, 2011). 2012-01-04 XCOR and VG have total of about 800 ticket reservations (Chang, 2012). 2012-03-20 VG has sold 500 ticket reservations for SS2 rides (Boyle, 2012). 2012-03-21 NASA selects 24 payloads for commercial suborbital flights (Steitz, 2012b). 2012-07-02 NASA invests $3.5M in 14 technology demonstration payloads (Steitz, 2012a). 2012-07-11 VG announces 529 ticket reservations (Coppinger, 2012). 2012-08-01 VG has sold 536 ticket reservations (U.S. Congress, 2012). 2012-08-24 NASA Selects Two Technologies For Commercial Suborbital Tests (Hoover, 2012). 2012-12-04 VG now has 560 ticket reservations (P. B. de Selding, 2012). 2012-12-28 VG announces sale of 530 tickets (Smart & Tinney, 2012). 2013-01-09 Unilever AXE brand buys 22 XCOR Lynx tickets for contest (Space.com, 2013). 2013-01-23 NASA Selects 13 Experimental Commercial Suborbital Flight Payloads (Steitz, 2013b) 2013-04-30 VG has sold 580 ticket reservations for SS2 rides (Wall, 2013). 2013-06-07 NASA selects 21 payloads for flight test (Steitz, 2013a). 2013-07-17 VG has 600th ticket reservation, more than $70M (“Virgin Galactic welcomes new era of

women in spaceflight - Tehachapi News,” 2013).2013-08-14 Space Expeditions Corp sold 230 ticket reservations on XCOR Lynx (Messier, 2013). 2013-08-16 NASA invests $2M in 10 technology demonstration payloads (Alexander, 2013). 2013-08-16 VG sold 640 ticket deposits (Carrington, 2013). 2013-10-01 More than 300 ticket reservations sold on XCOR Lynx (Foust, 2015b). 2013-11-10 VG announces 640 ticket reservations worth nearly $80M (Szondy, 2013). 2013-11-27 VG has nearly $80 million in deposits from approximately 640 individuals (Griffin

Communications, 2013). 2014-01-27 VG sold 600 tickets (Vincent, 2014). 2014-03-05 VG sells ticket reservations 700 and 701 to Winkelvoss twins (Lobosco, 2014). 2014-03-30 VG announces sale of 700 tickets (Roosevelt, 2014). 2014-04-02 NASA Selects 13 New Suborbital Technology Payloads, Total Tops 130 (Conner, 2014). 2014-04-21 VG announces sale of 680 tickets (Cornwell, 2014). 2014-05-13 VG announces sale of 700 tickets (Chang, 2014). 2014-07-12 VG announces sale of 650 tickets (O. Smith, 2014). 2014-09-08 NASA Selects 4 Firms for Commercial Suborbital Flight Services (Northon, 2014). 2014-10-12 VG announces sale of 700 tickets (Knapton, 2014). 2015-04-22 NASA Selects 7 Payloads for suborbital flights (Conner, 2015). 2015-08-23 VG ticket reservation numbers return to 750 (Burn-Callander, 2015). 2015-11-18 NASA Selects 8 New Technologies for Suborbital Flight (Williams, 2015).

3.3.4 Competition 1995 Rocketplane enters HSSFP market (Lauer, 2017). 1997 Scaled Composites enters HSSFP market (cite missing). 1999 Richard Branson registers the name “Virgin Galactic” (Howell, 2016; La Vone, 2014; L. Smith,

2014). 1999-01-01 XCOR Aerospace founded (Copelin, 2014).

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2000-01-01 Blue Origin founded (Davenport, 2016). 2001 Mojave Aerospace Ventures formed (cite missing). 2004-09-27 Public announcement of Virgin Galactic (Guardian, 2004). 2005-10-03 Rocket Racing League Announced (Malik, 2005). 2007-07-20 Northrop Grumman buys 100% of Scaled Composites (Daily Record, 2007). 2010-07-16 Xtraordinary Adventures & Rocketship Tours to sell XCOR rides (cite missing). 2010-08-07 Rocketplane files for bankruptcy (Palmer, 2010). 2012-10-05 Virgin Galactic takes full ownership of The Spaceship Company (TSC, 2012) 2012-07-06 XCOR to move to Midland, TX (cite missing). 2013-01-13 Rocketplane sold at auction for $25,000 (Palmer, 2013) 2015-08-06 XCOR leaves Mojave for Midland, TX (cite missing). 2017-11-09 XCOR Aerospace files for bankruptcy (Foust, 2017).

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