soybeans corn · 2020. 11. 27. · january soybeans set a new contract high at $12.00 with $12.08...

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What you need to know for the week ending November 27, 2020 • Grain and oilseed markets had a positive, but fairly quiet finish to the

week after setting new contract highs and bumping into tough resistance

Sunday evening. Areas of Argentina and southern Brazil received light

rains this week, with more forecasted for those areas over the next week.

However central Brazil, including Mato Grosso, have not seen the rainfall

they’d like and are not forecasted much, if any, over the next week as hot

temperatures move in as well. The market will keep an eye on realized

totals next week as the trend has been to miss forecasted rains.

November rainfall in Mato Grosso is reportedly 11.6” below the historical

average, which would be the lowest realized total in 40 years.

• Markets opened the week significantly higher Sunday evening before

running into $12.00 futures on January beans and topping out at $4.29 ¾

December 2020 corn. A well-respected private firm released ending

stocks estimates last Friday after the close, pegging 2020/21 corn ending

stocks at 1.54 billion bushels vs. 1.7 from USDA and soybean ending

stocks at 65 million bushels vs. 190 from USDA. The soybean number was

unchanged while corn stocks were slashed significantly from their last

estimate. Other privates weighed in on Brazil’s crop this week, with

soybean estimates in the low-130 MMT range (USDA 133 MMT) while a

few new corn estimates were reported around 106-107 MMT (USDA 110

MMT). The next WASDE report is December 10.

• The U.S. dollar broke key support at 91.75, trading to its lowest level since

April 2018. Next support looks to be around 89 on the nearby charts. In

a vacuum, a lower USD makes our commodity exports more competitive

in the world market, thus supporting futures prices. Obviously this is only

true if other competing currencies (Brazilian real, Argentine peso, etc)

don’t drop at the same pace.

• Unleaded demand fell to its lowest level since June, over 11% lower than

the same week last year. Ethanol production reported on Wednesday

was higher than all trade estimates while stocks built again as well.

Ethanol margins are looking dim with corn futures rallying, basis

tightening and demand taking a hit. This will something to watch going

forward. On the flip side, corn exports were higher than expected this

week at 65 million bushels vs. the 30 mbu needed to meet USDA

estimates.

• Technically, March 2021 corn will find first resistance at the double-top

contract high of $4.35 ¾. Support looks to be at the 20-day moving

average around $4.21 ½. January soybeans set a new contract high at

$12.00 with $12.08 ½ big resistance afterwards. There’s not much

support out there for nearby beans until the gap at $11.55 ¼ and the

moving averages in the $11.40 area. December 2021 corn contract high

is $4.25. November 2021 soybeans set a new contract high this week at

$10.60.

Mar ‘21 Dec ‘21

$4.33 ¾ $4.14 ½

+$0.05 ½ +$0.06 ¼

Jan ‘21 Nov ‘21

$11.91 ¾ $10.57 ¼

+$0.10 ¾ +$0.07 ¾

COT

U.S. Trade Balance

WASDE

SPREADS (From Jan 2021 & Mar 2021 Futures)

July ’21

SOYBEANS

July ‘21

CORN

WEEKLY CLOSES & CHANGES

AT-THE-MONEY CALL OPTIONS

CORN SOYBEANS Jan $4.35 $0.0900 Jan $12.00 $0.2425 Mar $4.35 $0.1800 Mar $12.00 $0.4800 May $4.40 $0.2400 May $12.00 $0.5950 July $4.40 $0.2925 Jul $12.00 $0.6950


USELESS FACT OF THE WEEK

Both Motel 6 and Super 8 got their names from the

original prices of the rooms. Motel 6 started at $6

in 1962, and Super 8 at $8.88 in 1974.


SOUTH AMERICAN WEATHER

1 Week Forecast (mm)

Past 30-Day Precipitation Anomaly (mm)

1 Week Forecast (mm)

Past 30-Day Precipitation Anomaly (mm)


MARCH 2021 CORN

TECHNICALS

20-Day Moving Average $4.21 ¼ Slow Stochastic Status Overbought

50-Day Moving Average $4.06 ½ Stochastic %K 85.19%

100-Day Moving Average $3.80 ½ Stochastic %D 85.03%

Contract High $4.35 ¾ Next Gap Higher N/A

Contract Low $3.31 ½ Next Gap Lower N/A


JANUARY 2021 SOYBEANS

TECHNICALS

20-Day Moving Average $11.39 ¼ Slow Stochastic Status Overbought

50-Day Moving Average $10.81 ¾ Stochastic %K 90.26%

100-Day Moving Average $10.03 Stochastic %D 90.82%

Contract High $12.00 Next Gap Higher N/A

Contract Low $8.35 ¾ Next Gap Lower $11.55 ¼ - 11.56 ¼


MANAGED MONEY FUND POSITION

CORN

SOYBEANS

Position

+268,110

Change From LW

-

Position

+200,123

Change From LW

-


FRONT MONTH FUTURES – 5-YEAR CONTINUATION CHARTS

soybeans corn · 2020. 11. 27. · january soybeans set a new contract high at $12.00 with $12.08...

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