southern california association of governments where will our children live? darin chidsey member...

Southern California Association of Governments


Where Will Our Children Live?Where Will Our Children Live?

Darin ChidseyMember Relations Officer

Growth, Change and Rising Prices

Resolving Regional Challenges

•6 Counties

•187 Cities

•38,000 square miles

•18 million people

•10th largest economy in the world

The RegionThe Region



SCAG Deals With SCAG Deals With Regional Issues

Transportation

Housing

Air Quality

Waste Management

Growth Forecasting

and More...

Goods Movement



Region’s ChallengesRegion’s ChallengesPopulation is expected to grow by more than

over the next two decades

38%more than

today

6,300,000



2003 Population Increase2003 Population Increase

Top 10 California Counties

Top 10 California Counties

1 2Los Angeles136,800

Riverside57,700

54

3

San Diego41,100

Orange41,900

San Bernardino44,400

6

9

710

8

Sacramento23,700

San Joaquin14,100

Fresno17,000

Santa Clara11,900

Kern16,500

1.5 million people added between2000 and 2004

Population Growth Swamps Entitlement Process and Transportation System



Sources of GrowthSources of Growth 2002-2003

Natural Increase

Domestic In-migration

11%

Foreign Immigration

41% 48%

N

2004 Median Price<100,000100,000 - 250,000250,000 - 400,000400,000 - 600,000> 600,000

Home PricesHome Prices

<100,000100,000 - 250,000250,000 - 400,000400,000 - 600,000> 600,000

2004 Median Price



Home Prices Rise SharplyAcross the State and Region

Home Prices Rise SharplyAcross the State and Region

$257,000

$191,000

$342,000

$362,000

$474,000

$472,000

$638,000

$664,000

$118,540

$150,000

$166,000

$198,500

$267,000

$295,000

$337,000

$370,000

$0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000

High Desert

U.S.

Riverside/San Bernardino

Palm Spring/Lwr Desert

Los Angeles

CA

Ventura

Orange

Feb-02

Feb-05

Source: National and California Assn. of Realtors, February, 2002 and 2005

12%

11%

19%

17%

14%

16%

24%

54%

38%

27%

30%

31%

33%

36%

42%

55%

57%

68%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Palm Spring/Lwr Desert

Orange

CA

Los Angeles

Ventura

Riverside

San Bernardino

U.S.

High Desert

Home Affordability Slips Sharply, Especially in Comparison to the U.S.

Home Affordability Slips Sharply, Especially in Comparison to the U.S.

Source: California Assn. of Realtors, February, 2002 and 2005

Percent of Households Able to Afford the Median Priced HomePercent of Households Able to Afford the Median Priced Home

Feb-02

Feb-05



0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005* 2010* 2015* 2020* 2025* 2030*

Total Building Permits Issued Single Family Building Permits Multi-Family Building Permits

Single Family and Multi-Family Housing Trends in Southern California

Single Family and Multi-Family Housing Trends in Southern California

Permits Issued Trend Projection

Sources: Construction Industry Research Board & SCAG RTP Trend Projection



Over the Last Two Decades Population Growth Has Significantly Exceeded Housing Production in LA County

Over the Last Two Decades Population Growth Has Significantly Exceeded Housing Production in LA County

LA County Population and Housing Growth 1970 - 2000

656,174

1,385,661

445,428

107,566

307,765

316,668

0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 1600000

90-00

80-90

70-80

Population Housing

STRATEGIESSTRATEGIES

Land Use Policy Housing Policy Economic Development



Growth VisioningGrowth Visioning

• The most ambitious “Growth Visioning” effort ever undertaken

• A collaborative process to develop a strategy to maintain our quality of life while making room for...



CompassProject Vision CompassProject Vision To Plan

Without Boundarie

s



Changes will affect only 2%

of regional land mass

Changes will affect only 2%

of regional land mass



Key FeaturesKey Features

Targets growth to

existing and planned

transportation system

Promotes mixed-use development

to reducenumber and

length of daily trips

Preservesstable

neighborhoods



Key FeaturesKey Features

Provides better access to jobs and improved

jobs/housing balance

Jobs Housing

Conserves open space

Supports public/private

partnerships and user-fee

infrastructure financing



Concentration of newdevelopment along existing and

planned transportation corridors and in regional centers

Concentration of newdevelopment along existing and

planned transportation corridors and in regional centers



Key Benefits Key Benefits

Allows transit systems to

become more productive

(22% increase in daily boardings)

Improves capacity and efficiency of

goods movement, supporting

growth of the Logistics Industry

Reduces Vehicle Miles

Traveled(-7 million

VMTs/day) travel delay(-180,000

hours/day) & emissions

(-17 tons VOC/day)

The region can

achieve air quality

conformity.



Offers improved housing

availability and

affordability

Key Benefits Key Benefits

Renovates urban cores, creating wealth through

increasedproperty values

Creates over 300,000 high paying jobs

Thank You

Thank Youplease visit us at

www.scag.ca.govplease visit us at www.scag.ca.gov

southern california association of governments where will our children live? darin chidsey member...

Documents

state of california

housing growth

southern california0100

decades population growth

family housing trends

housing production

countyla county population

terms of population