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Southern African Unconventional Gas Specialist Annual General Meeting Presentation Nathan Mitchell, Chairman 31 October 2012

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Page 1: Southern African Unconventional Gas Specialist Tlou_Management_AGM...Power Generation Replace diesel peaking generation at Eskom’s 1,400MW plant 15 – 20 2,000MW gas to power generation

Southern African Unconventional Gas Specialist Annual General Meeting Presentation Nathan Mitchell, Chairman 31 October 2012

Page 2: Southern African Unconventional Gas Specialist Tlou_Management_AGM...Power Generation Replace diesel peaking generation at Eskom’s 1,400MW plant 15 – 20 2,000MW gas to power generation

2

Disclaimer

Important notice and disclaimer

This document has been prepared by Tlou Energy Limited to provide existing and prospective investors

in Tlou Energy Limited with an update on the Company and its operations.

This presentation, including the information contained in this disclaimer, does not constitute an offer,

invitation or recommendation to subscribe for or purchase any security and neither the presentation,

disclaimer nor anything contained in the forms the basis of any contract or commitment. This

presentation does not take into account your individual investment objective, financial situation or

particular needs. You must not act on the basis of any matter contained in this presentation, but must

make your own assessment of the Company.

No representation, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or

correctness of information contained in this presentation, including the accuracy, likelihood of

achievement or reasonableness of any forecasts, prospects, returns or statements in relation tot future

matters contained in the presentation (“forward-looking statements”). Such forward-looking statements

are by their nature subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies and are based on a number of

estimates and assumptions that are subject to change (and in many cases are outside the control of

Tlou Energy Limited and its directors) which may cause the actual results or performance of Tlou Energy

Limited to be materially different from any future results or performance expressed or implied by such

forward-looking statements.

To the maximum extent permitted by law, none of Tlou Energy Limited, or related corporations,

directors, employees, or agents, nor any other person, accepts any liability, including, without limitation,

any liability arising from fault or negligence, for any loss arising from the use of this presentation or tis

contents or otherwise arising in connection with it.

Page 3: Southern African Unconventional Gas Specialist Tlou_Management_AGM...Power Generation Replace diesel peaking generation at Eskom’s 1,400MW plant 15 – 20 2,000MW gas to power generation

3

Southern Africa – A Unique Energy Investment Opportunity

Poised to Take Advantage of Favourable Operating and Commercialisation Dynamics

Southern Africa History of Identifying & Commercialising Gas Assets

Botswana Electricity Supply / Demand Estimate (MW) Drawn to Region due to Favourable Investment Attributes

Founders of Tlou were pioneers in the highly

successful eastern Australian CBM industry:

― Sunshine Gas & Mitchell Energy Group

Formed Tlou in 2009 to target unconventional gas

opportunities in southern Africa

Initial focus on Botswana with regional expansion plans

Attractive geology in emerging unconventional gas province

Southern Africa in the midst of ongoing energy crisis

― Considerable current power deficit with growth

opportunities

― Over ~1500MW of diesel fired generation in region

Attractive operating conditions

― Low cost environment

― Favourable government / environmental regulations

Tlou Energy has established itself as a leading unconventional gas company in southern Africa

0

400

800

1,200

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Years

Supply Demand

Source: Norconsult Market Report, 2012

Karoo Sedimentary Basin

Mapped Coal Occurrence

Tanzania

Zimbabwe

Harare

Botswana

Gaborone

Lesotho

Namibia

Angola Zambia

D.R.C

South Africa

Swaziland

Source: Adapted from RISC

Page 4: Southern African Unconventional Gas Specialist Tlou_Management_AGM...Power Generation Replace diesel peaking generation at Eskom’s 1,400MW plant 15 – 20 2,000MW gas to power generation

4

Company Highlights

Tlou’s Competitive Advantage

Board and management team with successful track record

Pioneers in Queensland CBM industry

1

One of the most advanced unconventional gas projects in Botswana with approximately 70 wells drilled

2.3 TCF (3C) contingent gas resource, reflecting over $40MM expenditure to date by Tlou and prior

operators

3

Building prospective acreage in southern Africa

4

Number of paths to commercialisation given southern African energy deficit

5

Favourable operating and regulatory environment

Low cost location combined with government initiatives supporting CBM development

2

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5

Experienced Board and Management

Proven Track Record of Success

Board

Key In-Country Management

17 years in resource exploration

CEO of Mitchell Group

International operational experience

― Pioneer of CBM drilling techniques

Non-executive director of Westside

Corporation

7 years unconventional gas experience

Previously CCO of Sunshine Gas

Qualified geologist

Non-executive director of Comet Ridge

9 years managerial experience in mining

service companies

Formerly with PwC

Geologist with 40 years experience in

mineral exploration

South African based

Previously CEO of Talon Metals and prior to

that the Chairman of AfriOre

Nathan Mitchell

Chairman

Anthony (Tony) Gilby

Chief Executive Officer

Chris Pieters

Executive Director

Martin McIver

Non Executive Director

Stuart Comline

Non Executive Director

25 years operational experience with oil and

gas majors, including Exxon

Drilling and geological experience across

Australia, PNG, Brazil and Africa

Professional geologist with strong local

government and industry relationships

Previously Permanent Secretary Ministry of

Minerals, Energy and Water Resources

Served on various private company boards

including De Beers, Debswana and DTC

Glen Smith

Chief Operating Officer

South Africa

Gabaake Gabaake

Regional Manager

Botswana

Francois Badenhorst

Operations Manager

South Africa and Botswana

Over 25 years experience in project

management

Previous VP of Saber Energy and COO of

CIC Energy Corp

Note:

* Henri van Rooyen (Non Executive Director) is also on the Board of Directors but proposes to stand down in 3Q2012

1. Based on Sunshine Gas scrip option and QGC share price implied from the subsequent BG bid for QGC.

Geologist with 28 years industry experience

Co-founder and previous CEO of

Sunshine Gas

― Proved up +1,000PJ of reserves and sold

to BG/QGC in 2008 for ~$1.1Bn (1)

Qualified geologist with previous technical

roles for ESSO, Exxon

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6

Overview of Tlou’s Projects

One of the most advanced unconventional

gas projects in Botswana

― 100% ownership of ~7,000km2 of granted

CBM permits – Karoo Central and Karoo

West

― Additional permit applications in

Botswana

― Also assessing options to expand

presence throughout region - including

permit applications in Botswana and

Tanzania; operating interests in

Zimbabwe; advanced tenement

negotiations in Mozambique

Southern African Unconventional Gas Specialist

Tlou’s Botswana Permits and Applications

Source: Tlou

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7

Significant Investment in Projects to Date

Significant Drilling Activity, Particularly in Karoo Central

Systematically acquired data through a programme of

drilling and testing to characterise CBM potential

― Tlou relinquished blocks with low CBM potential

― New applications in prospective areas

Developed one of the most comprehensive

unconventional gas exploration datasets in Botswana

Majority of drilling activity, including two pre-production

wells, in Karoo Central

― Gas flow potential confirmed

Coring program indicates gas reservoirs have shale

potential in addition to coal seams

Karoo Central and West Drilling to date

Activity # Holes Objective

Stratigraphic chip-holes 43 Determine lateral extent

of coal and shale

Core holes 23 Gas content and quality

Pre-production and monitoring wells 4 Measure gas flow potential

Location and Selected Results

Source: Tlou

Page 8: Southern African Unconventional Gas Specialist Tlou_Management_AGM...Power Generation Replace diesel peaking generation at Eskom’s 1,400MW plant 15 – 20 2,000MW gas to power generation

8

Multi TCF Resource Base, Certified by NSAI

Potential to Expand Resource Certification Across Other Acreage

Potential to Expand Resource Certification Multi TCF Resource Base

First CBM operator in Botswana to achieve

a NSAI contingent resource

― 2.3 TCF (3C) Contingent resource

― 8.6 TCF (High Estimate) Prospective resource

Significant resource expansion potential

― Current 2C certification covers <3% of Karoo

Central area and does not include shale reservoirs

Further acreage and potential resource upside

― Karoo West area

― Applications pending in Botswana

― Additional permits / applications in southern Africa

Source: Netherland Sewell & Associates (NSAI)

Note:

1. 1C volumes not identified at this time.

2. OGIP = Original gas in place.

Source: Tlou

Category

OGIP(2)

(BCF)

Unrisked Gross

(100 Percent) (BCF)

Contingent Resources (1)

Best Estimate (2C) 303.5 152.2

High Estimate (3C) 4,559.5 2,322.4

Prospective Resources

Low Estimate 2,459.5 644.1

Best Estimate 7,653.1 3,239.0

High Estimate 14,326.8 8,596.1

Resource Statement

Current Tlou Resource Certification Area

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9

Building Acreage Throughout Southern Africa

Positioning to be a Regional Leader in Unconventional Gas

Zimbabwe

Operating interest in 2 CBM special grants /

1 application spanning ~3,000Km2

― Exposure with minimal near term in-

country investment required

Uganda

Gabon

Congo

Namibia Zimbabwe

South Africa

Mozambique

Angola

Botswana

Kenya

Malawi

Tanzania

Democratic

Republic of the Congo

Zambia

South Africa

Given difficult regulatory and operating

environment, currently Tlou does not intend

to operate/explore in South Africa

Mozambique

Advanced discussions to gain acreage in

Zambese basins

― Region considered to offer significant

CBM potential

― Vale and Rio Tinto have engaged CBM

studies in the area

Tanzania

66,000Km2 of CBM tenements under

application in the Selous basin

― Geographically prospective coal basin Southern Africa

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10

Near-Term Local Commercialisation Strategy

Botswana Domestic Gas to Power

Botswana Electricity Supply / Demand Estimate (MW)

Source: Norconsult Market Report, 2012

Botswana power demand outstripping supply

― Investment in generation required

― Government focused on broadening fuel supply

options, including gas

Potential to replace dependence on expensive diesel

fuelled generation (est. US$25/GJ)

― 90MW at Orapa translating to 60MM litres p.a.

diesel replacement

― 180MW planned Mmashoro CBM fired generation

plant, representing opportunity equivalent to

~200MM litres diesel p.a.

― In total, diesel replacement opportunities may

represent gas sales opportunities of 10MM GJ p.a.

Gas also represents an attractive alternative for off-grid

temporary power solutions, currently relying on diesel

generation (1 – 2MM GJ p.a.)

Potential for additional gas fired generation plants to

address regional shortage

0

300

600

900

1,200

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

``

Years

Morupule A Eskom Imports Non-Firm Imports (SAPP)

Emergency Diesel Generation (70MW)

Dual Fuel Generation (Orapa 90MW)

Morupule B Phase 1 (600MW)

Demand

Demand +15% Reserve Margin

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11

Longer-Term Commercialisation Opportunity

South African Energy Market – Addressing the Energy Shortage

South Africa Electricity Supply / Demand Estimate (MW) South African energy market under pressure to meet

growing demand

― Demand has outstripped supply since 2007 / 2008

Potential shortfalls of up to 1,500 to 2,000MW p.a. up

to 2016

Provides numerous opportunities for Tlou to export

power/gas to help address shortages

Tlou’s Potential Export Opportunities

Opportunity Size (GJ p.a.) (MM)

Power Generation

Replace diesel peaking generation at Eskom’s

1,400MW plant 15 – 20

2,000MW gas to power generation expansion 80 – 90

Fill potential shortfall from delay /

abandonment of 2022 nuclear program 200 – 300

Gas Sales

Industrial gas demand 60 – 100

Source: Norconsult Market Report, 2012 Existing Plant (Pre-2009)

35,000

42,500

50,000

57,500

65,000

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

``

Committed IPP Capacity

Eskom Committed Capacity

Demand +19% Res. Mar. (No DSM)

Demand +19% Res. Mar. After DSM

MW

Source: Norconsult Market Report, 2012

Chart assumes Eskom delivery on its committed 14,000 MW

expansion program with remaining shortfall to be made up from

independent power producer (IPP) projects through to 2020

0

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