SOUTHEAST ASIA IN AN ERA OF FINANCIAL CRISES

Economic Vitality and Political Legitimacy

“It’s the economy, stupid”

Or is it?Singapore’s 2010 GDP growth was 14.5%

PAP took a “pasting” in 2011 elections

1997-1998

Fall of Suharto in IndonesiaMahathir-Anwar split in MalaysiaNew government and constitution in Thailand

This morning’s session

Lecture One: Changes in Southeast Asian economies

Regional “commodity chains”Lecture Two: Why are many SEA economies

so successful?

Southeast Asian economies

Large populationsLargish economiesAverage 2009 pci (PPP $) near $5,000Malaysia near $14,000Myanmar near $1,000

Why was the “hamburger” crisis less severe?

Commodity prices (China)Demand (China)Lessons learned

healthy bankscurrent account surpluses

Fiscal stimulus

De-coupled from Europe and NA?

Falling shares of exports to EU and NARising shares of exports to ChinaBut….

ASEAN

19671992: AFTAAEC by 2015

Vertical specialization

Middle income trap?Global economic adjustments

From flying geese to commodity chains

Textile industryTransport machinery and electronics

Further readings?

OECD, Southeast Asian Economic Outlook, 2010Dan Slater, Ordering Power. Contentious Politics

and Authoritarian Leviathans in Southeast Asia (Cambridge University Press, 2010)

Olivier Cattaneo, Gary Gereffi, and Cornelia Staritz, eds. Global Value Chains in a Postcrisis World: A Development Perspective (World Bank, 2010)