southeast alaska cloudburst chronicle · to trigger a tsunami. paul whitmore is the geophysicist in...

Volume 3, Issue 2

In this issue:��New Forecast ZonesNew Forecast ZonesNew Forecast ZonesNew Forecast ZonesNew Forecast Zones

��New Marine ZonesNew Marine ZonesNew Marine ZonesNew Marine ZonesNew Marine Zones

��NOAA WNOAA WNOAA WNOAA WNOAA Weather Radioeather Radioeather Radioeather Radioeather Radio

��Sitka Is READY!Sitka Is READY!Sitka Is READY!Sitka Is READY!Sitka Is READY!

��Why TWhy TWhy TWhy TWhy TsunamiReady?sunamiReady?sunamiReady?sunamiReady?sunamiReady?

��Cloudburst ClassroomCloudburst ClassroomCloudburst ClassroomCloudburst ClassroomCloudburst Classroom

��Graphical ForecastsGraphical ForecastsGraphical ForecastsGraphical ForecastsGraphical Forecasts

��Co-op ProgramCo-op ProgramCo-op ProgramCo-op ProgramCo-op Program

� Climate OutlookClimate OutlookClimate OutlookClimate OutlookClimate Outlook

� WWWWWeather Teather Teather Teather Teather Triviariviariviariviarivia

� WWWWWeather Weather Weather Weather Weather Watchersatchersatchersatchersatchers

With the highly variable weather throughoutthe Panhandle, we could realistically break out anothertwo or three dozen zones. Unfortunately at this point,the technology will not allow us to go to that extreme.We had to prioritize which of our current zones neededto be downsized the most. We also had to balance out

improving more of our marine forecastareas than our public ones. Due to theselimitations, our public zones south ofFrederick Sound are not going to change.For now, our service improvement in theSouth will hopefully be realized throughsmaller marine zones.

So when are we going to imple-ment these new marine and publicforecast zones? Most likely late this year

or early in 2004. The time line for this improvementis being driven by our successful configuration of IFPS.We are required to formally announce the change overat least four months in advance, so stay posted. Pleaseread on to see what our new marine zones will look

like! �

Whenever we implement new technology in yourJuneau Forecast Office, we always take a step back andevaluate whether or not we can improve our service.IFPS, the Integrated Forecast Preparation System, isthe latest technology to come down the pipeline. Inthe IFPS scheme of things, our staff will editgraphical forecasts (similar to the"experimental graphical forecasts" thatare available right now on our website). The IFPS software can alsoautomatically generate our textforecasts from those graphics. Theeventual bottom line is that it willtake our forecasters less time toprepare our suite of forecasts forSoutheast Alaska.

To date, we are only about halfway throughspinning up IFPS. Though there is still much to beconfigured, we are far enough along that we arebeginning to understand ways we can capitalize onthis new technology. Our Meteorologist-In-Charge,Tom Ainsworth, put it best when he stated, "Asalways, our ultimate goal is to improve our weatherservices in Southeast Alaska." Well, one way in whichwe can improve our service is to create more publicand marine forecast zones in Southeast Alaska. Thischange will provide more detailed weather informa-tion to you, our customers and partners.

Some of you might recall a time where theJuneau and Douglas area had its own unique forecast,separate from Hoonah and Angoon. With our newpublic zone configuration, this will be the case onceagain! How about in Lynn Canal? The weather inSkagway and along the Klondike Highway is almostalways different than that in Haines and along theHaines Highway. Both areas will have their ownforecasts under our new configuration. Anotherregion that we are going to split in half is our publiccoastal zone from Cape Fairweather to Cape Decision.The map below illustrates how our new public zoneswill look. (A color version of this map is availableunder the "newsletter" section of our web site.)

“...our ultimategoal is to improve

our weatherservices in

Southeast Alaska."

National Weather Service 8500 Mendenhall Loop Rd. Juneau, AK 99801

Tel: 907 790 6800 http://pajk.arh.noaa.gov

editors: [email protected] [email protected]

New Forecast Zones Coming Soon!

Southeast Alaska

Cloudburst Chronicle

By Chris Maier

National Weather ServiceJuneau, Alaska

Volume 3, Issue 2Summer 2003

This map illustrates how our new, downsized public zones

will look.

From the Editor: We apologizefor the delay in getting thislatest edition of the Cloud-burst to you. As you can seewe made major changes to ourformat. We hope youappreciate the work that wasrequired to implement thischange. Enjoy!

Place Artwork Here

Another new challenge for the Juneau Forecast Office is that we will be assumingwarning and forecast responsibility for Eastern Gulf of Alaska Offshore Area (PKZ310).The Anchorage Forecast Office currently takes care of the Eastern Gulf Offshore Area.Our Anchorage office has the biggest forecast area in the entire country. Our taking onthe Eastern Gulf Offshore Forecast is an attempt to help ease their workload a little.

It is hoped that as funds become available, we will be able to add more automatedweather observing stations throughout these new marine zones. Please know this issomething we fight for all the time! Not only would additional sensors help you betteranticipate conditions before you get underway, but they also help our marine forecastersdo a much better job.

Some big changes to our forecasts are coming soon. Our graphical forecasts canalready be previewed on our web site. We are confident that you will be pleased with theend results. Please be patient with us as we implement these improvements over the nextyear. As always, feel free to give us your feedback at any time. �

Another way we can improve our service in Southeast Alaska is by going to smaller, moredetailed, marine forecast areas. The IFPS, Integrated Forecast Preparation System,technology will allow us to make such a change. Sometime later this year or early in 2004,we will also be implementing our new marine zones. The main idea behind this improve-ment was to break up our main Inner Channels into their own forecast areas. We alsowanted to be able to provide better detail in our Outside Waters/Coastal Zone forecastsand warnings. All too often, for example, our forecasters are having to break up oursouthern coastal (Cape Fairweather to Dixon Entrance) marine forecast at CapesOmmaney or Edgecumbe. A second example is how different winds usually are SumnerStrait as opposed to Clarence Strait, or in Frederick Sound as opposed to Chatham Strait.Each of these areas will have their own marine forecast under our new plan.


� So what will allthese new zones mean

for NOAA WeatherRadio?

Obviously, with morezones there will bemore text. That willresult in longer, but

more detailed,forecasts. That is notexactly a good thing

for our NOAAWeather Broadcastswhere we strive tokeep the routine

broadcast cycle underfive minutes.

There are severalsolutions being

worked on but themost promising

strategy is to "local-ize" our NOAAWeather Radio

Broadcasts in South-east Alaska. Essen-

tially, you would onlyhear the weather

information for yourimmediate area andnearby zones for thenext couple of days.The full marine andpublic zone forecasts

will still be broad-casted, but at speci-

fied times throughoutthe day. Feel free to

submit your ownideas on ways we can

make our NOAAweather radio

broadcasts moreconcise. �

New Marine Zones

Our new marine zones willprovide Mariners withdetailed forecasts for mostof our Inner Channels.

By Chris Maier

Place Artwork HereRecently, the 17th Districtof the United States CoastGuard, finished installing5-watt NOAA weather radio(NWR) transmitters on alltheir high level communica-tions sites in SoutheastAlaska. The table to the right lists all theupdated USCG hi-site locations, theoriginal National Weather Servicetransmitters, and the various frequenciesassigned to each. Also listed are theWeather Channels or "weather bands"associated with each frequency. It isimportant to ensure that your NOAAWeather Radio can receive all seven bandsbefore heading out on the water or off intothe back country. Many receivers onlyhave five weather bands, and some have

Duis autem vele eumiriure dolor in velit.

Volume 2, Issue 8



By Chris Maier

only three. Due to the fact that VHF radiois so important in Southeast Alaska, andbecause we have such complex terrain, wemust utilize all seven FCC allotted weatherfrequencies. The estimated coverage mapbelow attempts to depict where our weatherradio signals should be audible. Our futureplans call for establishing NWR transmittersnear Petersburg (Lindenberg Mountain), inCentral Chatham Strait (hopefully betweenAngoon and Tenakee Inlet) and near CapeYakataga. �

�RegulationsRequiring Monitoringand Listening to VHF

Marine Radios(source: USCG)

A charter boat whoseradio was not tuned tothe proper channelmissed a severe stormwarning. By the time thecaptain learned of thestorm, it was too late toreturn to shore. The shipsank and a couple ofpersons died. A yacht introuble off the west coastof Mexico and far fromhelp saw a passengership. What should havebeen a quick rescuecould have turned todisaster when thepassenger ship(improperly) had itsradio off. The yacht wasable to attract the ship'sattention, however, andwas rescued.Misunderstanding ofpassing intentions byapproaching vessels andnear collisions haverepeatedly been avertedby working radios tunedto the proper channel.The InternationalTelecommunicationsUnion established threeVHF marine radiochannels recognizedworldwide for safetypurposes:

* Channel 16 (156.800MHz) - Distress, safetyand calling* Channel 13 (156.650MHz) - Intershipnavigation (bridge-to-bridge)* Channel 70 (156.525MHz) - Digital SelectiveCalling

Regulations on radiowatchkeeping exist for allboats and ships carryingmarine radios,commercial, recreational,government and military,

U.S. and foreign. �

from tsunamis and severe weather threats," said NWSAlaska Regional Director Richard Pryzwarty. "Thesecommunities have demonstrated a strong commit-ment to putting infrastructure and systems in placethat will save lives and protect property in the eventof these damaging and hazardous events."

The TsunamiReady and StormReadyprograms are voluntary preparedness programs withestablished guidelines for communities to followduring an emergency response to tsunamis andsevere weather. TsunamiReady and StormReadycommunities such as Sitka have incorporatedguidelines set by the NWS and ADES in the areas ofcommunication, warning reception and dissemina-tion, hazard mitigation, public outreach andawareness, and administrative planning.

NOAA's National Weather Service TsunamiWarning Center in Palmer, AK is responsible forissuing Tsunami Watches and Warnings for Alaskaand the entire U.S. West Coast. They also issuestatements when large earthquakes are not expectedto trigger a tsunami. Paul Whitmore is theGeophysicist In Charge at the West Coast/AlaskaTsunami Warning Center. He had this to say aboutcommunities like Sitka going that extra mile ofpreparedness: "Preparation and advance warning arevital factors in tsunami readiness. Citizens in a seasidecommunity, such as Sitka, which is in an area proneto earthquakes, must understand the importance ofmoving inland and to higher ground immediately.When a disaster occurs, a StormReady orTsunamiReady community will be better preparedfor its citizens."

So rest a little easier the next time you visitthe beautiful city of Sitka. Their local emergencymanagement officials have done everything they canto ensure a swift, organized emergency response inthe event of a natural disaster. ��


��

��

��

��By Chris Maier

The residents and visitors of Sitka can sleep a littlemore soundly at night. On Monday, July 7, aceremony was held honoring Sitka, Southeast Alaska'sfirst TsunamiReady and StormReady community.Kudos to Sitka Fire Chief and Emergency Manager,Dave Miller, and Safety Specialist, Nathan Young, forall the hard work they put in to accomplish this goal.It is a very big deal for a community to be designatedTsunamiReady and StormReady. FEMA Region 10Director, John Pennington, and the Director of AlaskaDivision of Emergency Services (ADES), DaveLiebersbach, both attended the ceremony and gavespeeches commending Sitka for its level of prepared-ness for natural disaster. Tom Ainsworth, Meteorolo-gist In Charge at our National Weather Service(NWS) Forecast Office in Juneau, emceed the eventand presented Chief Miller and Sitka City Adminis-trator, Hugh Bevan, with Sitka's official certificationand signs.

"Today we are making history by honoringSitka for establishing a way to better protect citizens

To becomeTsunamiReady,Tsunami EvacuationRoute signs must beset up throughout thecommunity. In theevent of a TsunamiWarning, these signsdirect visitors andlocal residents awayfrom predetermined"hazard zones" to"safe areas." Localofficials must workwith the AlaskaDivision of Emer-gency Services andAlaska Department ofTransportation toacquire these signs.

From left to right are John Pennington (RegionalDirector of FEMA Region 10), Dave Miller(Sitka Fire Chief and Emergency Manager), TomAinsworth (Meteorologist In Charge, NationalWeather Service Juneau), Hugh Bevan (Sitka CityAdministrator), and Dave Liebersbach (Director forthe Alaska Division of Emergency Services).

TTTTTsunamis can besunamis can besunamis can besunamis can besunamis can be

categorized in twocategorized in twocategorized in twocategorized in twocategorized in two

ways:ways:ways:ways:ways:

• Pacific-widePacific-widePacific-widePacific-widePacific-wideTTTTTsunamis:sunamis:sunamis:sunamis:sunamis: Generatedby major, vertical, oceanbottom movement indeep offshore trenches.• Local Local Local Local Local TTTTTsunamis:sunamis:sunamis:sunamis:sunamis:Can be a component ofthe Pacific-wide tsunamiin the area of theearthquake. It can alsobe a wave that isconfined to the area ofgeneration (within a bayor harbor) and caused bymovement of the bayitself or a landslide.

In Southeast Alaskaboth types of tsunamisare possible. The entirePanhandle is at risk forLocal Tsunamis, whileour communities near oralong the outer coast arealso at risk for Pacific-wide Tsunamis.

The 1964 Alaska Good

Friday earthquake and

tsunami caused $30

million in damage in

and near the coastal

community of Kodiak,

Alaska. Of the 132

fatalities that resulted,

122 of those deaths

were the direct result of

the tsunamis, not the

earthquake.

Place Artwork Here

Since 9/11 a lot has been accomplished in our greatcountry to be better prepared. The Department ofHomeland Security, which the U.S. Coast Guard andFEMA are now a part of, has worked toward mitigatingour threat from terrorists. In a similar approach theNational Weather Service has partnered with FEMA,state emergency management agencies (in our state thatagency is the Alaska Division of Emergency Services),and with local emergency management officials in theTsunamiReady and StormReady programs. Theseprograms help local communities improve theiremergency preparedness and response to naturaldisasters. These programs also help identifyenvironmental hazards in communities and formulatestrategies to mitigate their potential impacts.

In Alaska, millions of tax dollars are spenteach year responding to natural disasters. Over the pastcouple years alone we had the major Denali FaultEarthquake, hurricane force wind storms and a recordsnow storm in Anchorage, and a record flood event onthe Kenai Peninsula. In addition, there have beenwildfires, blizzards, avalanches, volcanoes, tsunamis, mudslides, and major ice jam flooding during breakup. Justabout the only thing we did not have were majortornadoes! (We do get small tornadoes, by the way, justnot the kind that cause F4 or F5 damage like in the GreatPlains.) Federal, state and local governments are beingasked to be more and more responsible with theirbudgets. A simple plea for emergency funds after adisaster isn't cutting it anymore. The focus has shifted topreparedness planning and hazard mitigation. Spendingless money preparing ahead of time will hopefully reducethe need for a more expensive response after a disaster.To emphasize this strategy, forward thinking communitieswho have successfully filed a Hazard Mitigation Planwith ADES and FEMA, are being awarded grants tomitigate identified environmental hazards in theircommunities. TsunamiReady and StormReadycommunities are expected to have a Hazard MitigationPlan in place.

When a community successfully achievesStormReady and TsunamiReady status, everyone wins.Civic leaders, emergency responders, local residents,private industry, tourists, the NWS, ADES, andFEMA...we all gain when a community is betterprepared. Here are just a few of the benefits yourcommunity will realize by becoming StormReady andTsunamiReady:• Demonstrates forward thinking and being well preparedto respond to a natural disaster;• Improves the timeliness and effectiveness of severeweather and tsunami warnings;• Detailed recommendations will help local emergencymanagers improve their handling of environmentaldisasters;• Enables communities to receive federal grants throughADES that will support their Hazard Mitigation Plan.Funding for the initial installation of the "TsunamiEvacuation Route" signs (page 4) is an example;

• Provides a means of acquiring additional CommunityRating System points assigned by the National FloodInsurance Program (NFIP);• The StormReady and TsunamiReady programs can alsohelp ensure your community is prepared for other civilemergencies.

In Southeast Alaska, we do have several activeand "potentially active" earthquake faults. TheFairweather fault is known to be active. A magnitude 8.2earthquake in 1899 resulting in a tsunami over 32 feet highin Yakutat Bay. A magnitude 7.9 earthquake on thatsame fault resulted in the famous Lituya Bay "localtsunami" after a major land slide. Local tsunamisgenerated from land slides are the major threat across ourInner Channels.

It's up to us to take the initiative to prepare ourlocal communities before a major event occurs. ADESand the NWS have partnered in TsunamiReady andStormReady, programs that can serve as road maps toyour community can reach its destination of "beingprepared." Being recognized as TsunamiReady andStormReady means your community is well prepared toreceive warnings before disaster strikes and respondappropriately. Remember it's not a matter of 'if ' anearthquake and tsunami will impact Southeast Alaska, it'sa question of 'when.'

For more information on having your Southeast Alaskacommunity established as TsunamiReady andStormReady, please have your designated localemergency manager contact me at 790-6803 [email protected]@[email protected]@[email protected] I'll be able to help them startthe process and provide the necessary contacts to ADES.For more information on the web, please visit:StormReady web site: www.StormReady.noaa.govTsunamiReady web site: www.tsunami.govADES web site: www.ak-prepared.com� � � � � � � � � � � � ��


Volume 2, Issue 8



Why your community should becomeTsunamiReady and StormReadyBy Chris Maier For your community

to become

StormReady and

TsunamiReady, here

is what needs to get

done:

• Incorporate yourcommunity’s naturaldisaster threats (including atsunami evacuation plan)into your community’shazard mitigation andemergency response plans.You can easily create thoseplans from templates thatADES will provide if eitheror both have never beencreated.

• Create a map of wheretsunami evacuation routesigns will be placed in yourcommunity. ADES will workwith your community onthis goal and pay for theinitial cost of the signs.

• Establish a 24 HourWarning Point andEmergency OperationsCenter.

• Establish multiple ways toreceive severe weather andtsunami warnings and toalert the public.

• Create a system thatmonitors weatherconditions locally.

• Promote the importance ofpublic readiness throughcommunity seminars,tsunami awarenessbrochures, severeweather spotter training andby conducting emergencyexercises..

Active and potentially active faults in Southeast

Alaska. (Map from the Hansen and Combellick, 1998

report: Planning Scenario Earthquakes For Southeast Alaska,

Alaska DNR, Division of Geological & Geophsical Surveys.)

The Coriolis effect.The Coriolis effect.The Coriolis effect.The Coriolis effect.The Coriolis effect. In 1835, agentleman by the name of Gustav-Gaspard Coriolis (core - e - ol - iss) was thefirst to mathematically describe thiscurving movement to the right in theNorthern Hemisphere and to the left inthe Southern Hemisphere. (We are justgoing to focus on what happens in theNorthern Hemisphere.) Due to therotation of the earth, wind and evenocean currents are pushed to their right.When we say "to their right" we meanthat with the wind is at "their" back. Aneat bit of trivia is when standing with thewind to your back, lower pressure is to

your left. That's always true ifthe winds are not beinginfluenced by topography. Theamount that the winds arepushed to the right is deter-mined by the speed of the windand the strength of the pressuregradient force. The wind speedand the Coriolis effect arenearly in balance in ouratmosphere. So when thepressure gradient force

Wind affects us every day, whether by beingtoo strong, calm or somewhere in between.We all know wind is the movement ofair...but what causes it to move? Once winddevelops, what happens to it? What aresome different winds unique to certaingeographical locations? These are the threequestions that will be discussed, so tie onyour hat and prepare to get blown away!

Wind is the result of a balancing actthat the atmosphere is trying to achieve.(Lucky for us it never quite does!) Airmoves from areas of high pressure to areasof low pressure. This creates wind, that'ssimple enough. It's got to getharder...right?! This movementis referred to as the pressuregradient force. The greater thedifference between the Highand Low pressure centers, andthe closer they are to eachother, the stronger the wind.Sound a bit strange? Thinkabout a fire hose. The rate atwhich the water flows from thehose can be thought of as thewind speed. The two ways we can make thewater run faster (or increase the wind speed)is to open the faucet more (larger pressuredifference), or to squeeze the opening of thehose (decrease the distance between the twopressures areas). The closer isobars (lines ofequal pressure) are to each other on aweather map, the stronger the winds will bein that region. If the pressure gradientforce was the only factor in determiningwind direction, they would run parallelwith the isobars, but there is somethingmore to it, and that something is called theCoriolis effect.

“The greater thedifference betweenthe High and Low

pressure centers, andthe closer they are to

each other, thestronger the wind."


��

��

Depicted above isthe wind circulationin the NorthernHemisphere.

As a storm moves into Southeast Alaska from theGulf, the pressure gradient tightens and windsincrease. The complex terrain of the Panhandlewreaks havoc with wind direction.

� The pressurewind exerts increaseswith the square of thewind speed. So when

the wind speeddoubles, it's forceincreases fourfold.That means an 80

mph is four times aspowerful as a 40 mph

wind.��

��

��

Correction: In the lastedition of the "CloudburstClassroom" it was statedthat "if the humidity of airincreases, the watermolecules make the airmore dense (and viceversa)." Actually moist airis less dense than dry air!We apologize for anyconfusion this might havecaused.

becomes stronger than the Coriolis effect,winds are pushed more sharply toward thecenter of low pressure.

We know that high or low pressureaffects us not only in the vertical, but thehorizontal as well. From the surface to avariable height known as the boundarylayer (height at which the wind is notaffected by topography) winds are sloweddown by friction. Friction occurs as the airis drug across the land and even some largeman-made structures. As the wind speeddecreases, the strength of the Coriolis effectalso decreases, causing a sharper counter-clockwise (cyclonic) turn into the lowerpressure. As we move up into the atmo-sphere and above the boundary layer, theCoriolis effect becomes stronger as thewind speeds increase. As a result, the windswill be pushed more gradually around anylow pressure area. Friction not only affectsthe wind direction on the large scale, butthe small scale as well. We've all beenwalking around a building and afterrounding a corner felt a definite differencein the wind speed. Another great exampleof this is the difference in winds at Hainesand Skagway. Skagway is located in anorth-south orientated river valley, whereHaines is in a more northwest-southeastorientated spot. So, for example, if therewas a westerly wind, Haines would mainlyhave a northwest wind, while Skagway

would have a more northerly wind. Thesteep mountain terrain causes countlessareas of "local winds," giving even more ofa challenge to forecasting Alaska's wonder-ful weather.

Winds around the world havebeen given some unique names. They allfrequently occur in specific geographicregions due to the influence of the terrain.Here are just a handful:� Foehn (fern) - a warm, drydownslope wind on the lee side of the Alps.� Chinook - the name given to thefoehn winds in western North America.� Santa Ana - a strong, dry, hot windblowing from the desert regions of southernCalifornia toward the Pacific coast.� Williwaw - a violent squall in theStraits of Magellan.� Kona - a southwest, rain-bringingwind in Hawaii.� Haboob - a desert wind strongenough to kick up a sandstorm or duststorm, usually in North Africa or southwestNorth America.� Taku - a strong, east-northeastdownslope wind, occurring in downtownJuneau and Douglas. �


Volume 2, Issue 8



��Taku winds ofvarying strengthimpact the downtownJuneau and Douglasarea roughly fourtimes a year, usuallybetween October andMarch.� �

As the storm and front move inland, winddirection shifts around to the west-northwestover open ocean. Winds still follow the terrain,however, across the Inner Channels of thePanhandle.

�Before Taku windsdevelop, one of the

things ourforecasters monitor is

the strength of thepressure

gradient betweennorthwest British

Columbia andJuneau. �

Starting this month, our complement ofgraphical forecast products displayed on the webwill be nearly complete. Recall from previousarticles that these graphical forecasts are beinggenerated from our new Interactive ForecastPreparation System or IFPS. The latest additionsinclude sea level pressure, wind, and sea heights.We will be adding a few more graphics in thefuture. These will include snowfall, relativehumidity, and a fire weather type of product.The snowfall graphic will be the first to make anappearance sometime this fall.

Meanwhile, there will be several changesgoing on behind the scenes. Most of them dealwith upgrading the program that is being used tocreate the images. Another will be the work onthe ‘image to text‘ programs. This program willactually generate our future text forecasts fromthe graphics we create. While all this work isgoing on, the rest of the forecast staff arebecoming more proficient in developing theimages and adding our knowledge of the weatherpatterns to them.

As promised in the earlier newsletter, Iwill bring out a question or two that I havereceived. Feel free to keep sending in questionsand comments. One of the questions was...What does PoP mean? Well, it stands forProbability of Precipitation, which is the chancethat measurable precipitation will occur. Asecond question was on where we got ourtemperature information for the higher eleva-tions. With clear conditions we can use satellitesto gather the data that would be used for the firstcouple of hours of the images. We do, however,rely heavily on data from our computer modelsfor the remainder of the time.

So that’s the scoop for this summer. Ifyou have any more questions or comments, Iwould like to hear them and will do what I can toanswer them for you. �


��

Graphical forecasts of wind are one of the latest innovations on ourweb site. You can view all of Southeast Alaska, or zoomed-in imagesof the Northern or Southern (depicted above) Panhadle.

By Brian Bezenek

Graphical forecasts of sea heights are now also available on our website. Mariners planning a voyage might find these visualizations usefulin combination with our text forecasts.

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Over 11000 National Weather Service (NWS)Cooperative Weather Observers nationwidedonate 1 million+ hours each year to collect vitalweather data that becomes part of the nationalclimatic records. This data is invaluable inlearning more about the floods, drought, heat,and cold waves affecting us all. The data is alsoused in agricultural planning and assessment,engineering, environmental-impact assessment,utilities planning, and litigation. The dataprovided by Cooperative Weather Observersplays a critical role in efforts to recognize andevaluate the extent of human impacts on climatefrom local to global scales. NOAA scientistsused this data to make early predictions on thestrength and global impact of the 1997-98 ElNino that disrupted oceanic and atmosphericsystems. NWS forecasters also use the data toimprove daily forecasts of weather, water, andclimate conditions.

The first network of cooperativeweather stations was set up as a result of an actof Congress in 1890 that established the WeatherBureau, but many COOP stations began operationlong before that time. John Campanius Holm’sweather records, taken without the benefit ofinstruments in 1644-45, were the earliest knownobservations in the United States. Subsequently,many persons, including important historicalfigures such as George Washington, ThomasJefferson, and Benjamin Franklin, maintainedweather records. As Postmaster General in1743, Jefferson effectively became the firstperson to track a hurricane by gathering weatherreports from postmasters along the AtlanticCoast of the United States. Jefferson maintainedan almost unbroken record of weather observa-tions between 1776 and 1816 and envisioned theexisting nationwide network of weatherobservers as early as 1776 when he began torecruit observers in Virginia.

Today, the Cooperative ObserverNetwork operates basically as it did the first yearof its inception over 100 years ago. CooperativeWeather Stations, scattered over all 50 states,Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands, are takingweather observations seven days a weekthroughout the year. In Southeast Alaska we haveover 30 Cooperative Weather Stations providingclimatological data in otherwise data sparse orvoid areas. This data improves computermodeling capabilities which ultimately results inbetter forecasts from the NWS.

Cooperative Weather Observers comefrom all walks of life. Farmers, teachers, lawyers,doctors, housewives, and retirees are all amongthose individuals contributing to the program.Individual observers are usually longtime localresidents of the area. This provides longevity andcontinuity of data. In addition to private citizens,many local, state, and federal government officesactively participate in the program. Power plants,water and pollution control plants, schools anduniversities, and members of the media alsoprovide Cooperative Weather observations.Observers are recruited in predeterminedlocations to fill a specific data need. This needmay be to define the climate of an area, to obtaindata for NWS hydrologic operations, augmentdata from the Automated Surface ObservingSystem (ASOS), or provide credible ground truthdata.

At official Cooperative Weather Stations,observations are taken from instrumentationprovided and maintained by the NWS. Observa-tions are recorded from instrument readingsobtained at predetermined times to form aconsistent weather picture that has occurred in thelocal area for a specific period, usually 24 hours.These recorded weather reports are documentedon NWS forms and mailed by the observer to theNWS who forwards them to the National ClimaticData Center for processing and archiving.

Currently there is a need for dedicatedCooperative Weather Observers in Hollis, Tyee,and Kasaan. Anyone interested in taking an activeroll in the Cooperative Weather ObserverProgram is encouraged to contact Pete Rahe atthe National Weather Service Forecast Office inJuneau by phone at (907) 790-6825 or [email protected]. �


Volume 2, Issue 8



�Equipment (shownleft) is provided to Co-op Weather Observersby the NWS. PeterRahe is our Co-opProgram Manager andhe maintains thisequipment in SoutheastAlaska. These volunteerWeather Observers areinvaluable to thecollection of climatedata in Alaska. Manyalso serve their localcommunities byinforming the NWSwhen adverse weatherconditions are movingthrough. �

��

��By Pete Rahe

��The anemometerThe anemometerThe anemometerThe anemometerThe anemometer(wind sensor) at cape(wind sensor) at cape(wind sensor) at cape(wind sensor) at cape(wind sensor) at capeSpencer. Spencer. Spencer. Spencer. Spencer. �

I personally love the budding science of ClimatePrediction. In Southeast Alaska, it is a realchallenge to do a good job with seasonal outlooks.Basically, there just hasn't been a lot of ClimatePrediction research completed that can help us.For now, the best approach is to monitor large scaleclimate phenomena, such as the El Niño/SouthernOscillation (ENSO) cycle, and try to relate that tohistorical climate trends in the Panhandle. Ofcourse, we also are limited to only being able to givethe odds or probabilities of how the upcomingseasons should unfold when compared to normal.

Similar to 2002, April and the better partof May were dry and warm. Also, similar to lastyear, June has been cooler and wetter. The bigquestion now is how does the rest of the summerlook? NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issuedtheir combined July-August-September outlooksrecently.

Despite the fact that above normaltemperature are projected for the next 3 months,above normal rainfall is also expected. Looks as ifwe are going to pay for having such a nice Aprilagain. If there is a positive to take from this, whenwe do get those breaks in the weather the rest ofthis summer, temperatures will be downrightbalmy. So what about an early take on next winter?

““The latest statistical and coupledcomputer model forecasts indicate considerableuncertainty for the next several months. However,the majority of the forecasts indicate near-normalconditions in the tropical Pacific during the last halfof 2003,” said Vernon Kousky, lead ENSO scientistat the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Nearnormal, or ENSO neutral, conditions after an ElNino event usually result in a colder winter. Snow?Well the historical weather data reveals that ourcolder winters more times than not result in oursnowiest winters (kind of makes sense! Cold andsnow?!?) That of course would be a major reversalfrom what we have experienced of late here in thePanhandle. We'll keep an eye on things and updateyou in our Autumn newsletter. For now, here is my'long lead' projection for next winter:


� The NOAAClimate Prediction

Center definesENSO neutralENSO neutralENSO neutralENSO neutralENSO neutral

conditions asnormal ocean

surface tempera-tures in the central

and east-centralequatorial Pacific.This means the ElNiño of last winter

has weakened.Historical weather

data shows thatafter an El Niño has

dissipated intoENSO neutralconditions, we

usually experience awinter season closer

to normal. Thiswould mean a

colder and snowierwinter than in

recent years. �

�� By Chris Maier

� First the goodFirst the goodFirst the goodFirst the goodFirst the goodnews:news:news:news:news:

The latest tempera-ture outlook (right)for the combinedtime period of July,August andSeptember calls forabove normaltemperatures inSoutheast Alaska.�

� Now the badNow the badNow the badNow the badNow the badnews:news:news:news:news:

The latest precipita-tion outlook (right)for the combinedtime period of July,August andSeptember calls forabove normalprecipitation inSoutheast Alaska.�

Place Art1. On average, what is the warmest town in Southeast Alaska during summer?2. How about the 'coolest' town during our summer?3. What Southeast Alaska town experienced a record 9 consecutive days with high temperatures of 80�F or hotter in August of 1977?4. What is the wettest Southeast Alaska location during summer?5. How about the wettest rain gauge in all of the United States?6. Based on the weather records, what is the earliest date after the summer solstice that an inch of snow has fallen at sea level in the Panhandle?7. What town is considered the "sunshine" capital of Alaska?Bonus: Based on Climatology, what is the percent chance for sunny to partly sunny skies during

summer for the following locations? ____Yakutat ____Juneau ____Annette Island

��

�� The primary purpose of having anetwork of trained WeatherSpotters, is to help us monitor andwarn for severe weather. Whether itis heavy snow, high winds, flooding,thunderstorms or even waterspouts,your reports are integral to helping us warn the citizensof Southeast Alaska. With that in mind, we arechanging how we honor our MVS (Most ValuableSpotter) each quarter. From now on, we are going tobe recognizing the Weather Spotter(s) that providedthe most critical reports during a significant severeweather outbreak. That is when your reports literallyhelp save lives!

This quarter the new honor of MVS goes totwo of our Weather Spotters in the Haines area. BothPaul Swift of Haines and Betty Holgate of Mud Bayprovided critical information on the major winter stormthat occurred back on March 13-14. Not only did Pauland Betty provide us with accurate snowfall amounts,but they also took the time to provide us with updates.Finally after the snow and wind had ceased, one lastcall gave us the storm total amounts as well as anupdate on if any damage resulted.

One lesson here is that whether it be bycalling our 1-800-number, filing reports via our web site,or a simple e-mail, the important thing is to please let usknow when severe weather is occurring in your area.The weather information conveyed by both Mr. Swift andMs. Holgate helped our forecasters warn effectivelyduring this storm. Both Mr. Swift and Ms. Holgate willreceive National Weather Service travel mugs. Theywill also be receiving copies of our updated Mariner’sWeather Guide Brochure, our new Southeast AlaskaSummer Climate Brochure and our new MarineWeather Chart. Thanks for your service as some of

Southeast Alaska’s best Weather Watchers! ��

Do you know someone interested in weather that isnot a Weather Watcher? Weather Watcher? Weather Watcher? Weather Watcher? Weather Watcher? Let them know thatbecoming a weather spotter in Southeast Alaska iseasy! You can browse through the traininginformation on the web, we can mail you a coursepacket, or you can attend a short spotter course.Courses may be scheduled in any community wherethere is enough interest to satisfy a minimal level ofattendance (usually at least 10 people). If you areinterested in becoming a spotter or have somethoughts on how to improve our Weather WatchersProgram, please give us a call at 790-6803 or [email protected]@[email protected]@[email protected] You will also find moreinformation on the "Spotter" section of our website: http://pajk.arh.noaa.gov/spotter/spot.htmhttp://pajk.arh.noaa.gov/spotter/spot.htmhttp://pajk.arh.noaa.gov/spotter/spot.htmhttp://pajk.arh.noaa.gov/spotter/spot.htmhttp://pajk.arh.noaa.gov/spotter/spot.htm

Trivia Answers: (1) With an average temperature of 57.1�F, Metlakatla is considered the warmest town inSoutheast Alaska during summer. (2) Yakutat has the coolest average summer with an average temperature of52.3�F. (3) Ketchikan experienced a Southeast Alaska record 9 straight days with high temperatures 80�F or morein August of 1977! (4) Little Port Walter on the southeast end of Baranof Island is the wettest location in thePanhandle with an average of 39.80" of rain in summer. (5) Not only is Little Port Walter the wettest rain gauge inAlaska, but it also the wettest gauge in the United States! An average of 225.53" of precipitation occurs thereevery year. (6) On September 15, 1992 an inch of snow fell in Yakutat. This was the earliest (after mid-summer)inch of snow in Southeast Alaska weather record history. (7) That would be Bettles with an average of 178 sunnyor partly sunny days per year. (Bonus) Yakutat...20% Juneau...25% Annette Island...31%

��Southeast Alaska's Spotter Network

PlaceArt-

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With our new newsletter format, we are now able to createcool stuff such as this space for Featured Spotter WeatherPhotos! Please e:mail any digital weather-related photos youwould like to share to [email protected]@[email protected]@[email protected] We'll presentyour photo here along with the credit you deserve forcapturing Southeast Alaska's weather. (The only requirementon the images is that the file size must be below 5 MB.)Thanks in advance for any contributions you make!

Place Art

�� • ThunderstorThunderstorThunderstorThunderstorThunderstormsmsmsmsms

• WWWWWaterspoutsaterspoutsaterspoutsaterspoutsaterspouts

• HailHailHailHailHail

• Winds of 40 mphWinds of 40 mphWinds of 40 mphWinds of 40 mphWinds of 40 mphor moreor moreor moreor moreor more

• Damage causedDamage causedDamage causedDamage causedDamage causedby High Windsby High Windsby High Windsby High Windsby High Winds

• 1/2 inch or more1/2 inch or more1/2 inch or more1/2 inch or more1/2 inch or moreof rain in 1 hourof rain in 1 hourof rain in 1 hourof rain in 1 hourof rain in 1 hour

• Freezing rain orFreezing rain orFreezing rain orFreezing rain orFreezing rain orfreezing drizzlefreezing drizzlefreezing drizzlefreezing drizzlefreezing drizzle

• Heavy SnowfallHeavy SnowfallHeavy SnowfallHeavy SnowfallHeavy Snowfall...rates of an inch...rates of an inch...rates of an inch...rates of an inch...rates of an inchor moror moror moror moror more an houre an houre an houre an houre an hour.....

• 4" or more of4" or more of4" or more of4" or more of4" or more ofsnow in 12 hours.snow in 12 hours.snow in 12 hours.snow in 12 hours.snow in 12 hours.

• Roads closed orRoads closed orRoads closed orRoads closed orRoads closed orimpassible due toimpassible due toimpassible due toimpassible due toimpassible due tohigh waterhigh waterhigh waterhigh waterhigh water

• Coastal FloodingCoastal FloodingCoastal FloodingCoastal FloodingCoastal Flooding

• Land or mudLand or mudLand or mudLand or mudLand or mudslidesslidesslidesslidesslides

• Rivers or streamsRivers or streamsRivers or streamsRivers or streamsRivers or streamsnear bankfullnear bankfullnear bankfullnear bankfullnear bankfull

• Any unusualAny unusualAny unusualAny unusualAny unusualweather event!weather event!weather event!weather event!weather event!

When you report,include the followinginformation:

1. Your name andspotter ID

2. Location and timeof the weather event

3. What you spotted!


southeast alaska cloudburst chronicle · to trigger a tsunami. paul whitmore is the geophysicist in...

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