south district - planning.nsw.gov.au

CANTERBURYHURSTVILLEKOGARAHROCKDALESUTHERLAND

South District Demographic & Economic Characteristics

2South District | Demographic & Economic Characteristics

The South District 3

People 4

Population 4

Age Profile 6

Households and Dwellings 7

Household Types 7

Dwelling Types 9

Dwelling Completions 11

Housing Market Demand Areas 12

Employment and Economy 13

Jobs by Sector 13

Location of Jobs 14

Journeys to Work 15

Contribution to the Economy 16

About this document

This document contains an overview of the population, household types, dwellings, employment and economy of the South District. This information forms part of the evidence base for district planning.

This document contains data from a variety of sources including the NSW Department of Planning and Environment, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Transport for NSW - Bureau of Transport Statistics, and various research reports.

February 2016

Contents


The South District

The South District (Figure 1) comprises five local government areas: Canterbury, Hurstville, Kogarah, Rockdale and Sutherland.

Source: NSW Department of Planning and Environment 2014, A Plan for Growing Sydney, Sydney, p.133, Fig 32.Figure 1: South District


People

2011 2021 2031

POPULATION CHANGE

154,750MORE PEOPLE

AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

+1.1%

610,5

50

686,6

50

765,3

00

Population

Source: NSW Department of Planning and Environment 2014, New South Wales State and Local Government Area Population, Household and Dwelling Projections: 2014 Final, Sydney.

Figure 2 : Population growth in the South District, 2011-2031

In 2011 the South District was home to around 610,550 people. By 2031 the South District’s population is projected to grow to around 765,300 people, a 25 per cent increase over the 2011 population (Figure 2).

Growth is not projected to occur evenly across the District, reflecting local characteristics and differing drivers of population change. Between 2011 and 2031 population growth is projected to be greatest in Sutherland (47,500 additional people), followed by Canterbury (36,750 people) (Figure 3).

The local government areas of Kogarah and Rockdale are projected to have the fastest growing populations, with an average population growth rate of 1.3 per cent per year to 2031.

Between 2011 and 2031 the South District’s population is projected to grow at an average rate of 1.1 per cent per year. Although this is lower than the Sydney Metropolitan Area average annual population growth rate of 1.6 per cent, it is projected there will be 154,750 additional people living in the District by 2031 than there were in 2011.


Sources: Historical population data for 1991-2011: Australian Bureau of Statistics various years, Australian Demographic Statistics, cat No. 3101.0, Canberra. Projected population data for 2016-2031: NSW Department of Planning and Environment 2014, New South Wales State and Local Government Area Population, Household and Dwelling Projections: 2014 Final, Sydney.

Figure 3: Historical and projected population for local government areas in the South District, 1991 – 2031

PEOPLE

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

CANTERBURY HURSTVILLE KOGARAH ROCKDALE SUTHERLAND

LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA

HISTORICAL POPULATION PROJECTED POPULATION1991 20161996 20212001 2026 20312006 2011

People


People


Figure 4: Age profiles of populations in the South District and Sydney Metropolitan Area, 2011 and 2031

20112031

0-14

19% 19% 14% 12% 31% 28% 24% 24% 11% 14%

15-24 25-44 45-64 65-84

2% 3%

85+AGE GROUPS(YEARS)

SYDNEY METROPOLITAN

AREACOMPARISONS

18% 19%

13%12%

24% 24%

30%

27%

12%

16%

2% 3%

Note: Proportions have been rounded to the nearest percent.Totals may not add to 100 per cent because of rounding.

Age Profile

The South District has a slightly older population profile compared to the Sydney Metropolitan Area and with population ageing it is likely to become more pronounced over the next 20 years. The District’s population aged 65 and older is projected to increase by 56,500 people (64 per cent) between 2011 and 2031 (Figure 4).

Sutherland is projected to see the largest numerical growth in population aged 65 and over (22,200 people) and have the highest proportion of people aged 65 and older (20 per cent) in the South District by 2031.

In 2011 the proportion of children aged below 15 years in the South District (18 per cent) was similar to the Sydney Metropolitan Area as a whole (19 per cent). By 2031, the number of children aged below 15 years in the South District is projected to increase by around 30,800 people. Projections indicate that Sutherland will see the largest numeric increase in the below 15 age group (8,550 people), while Rockdale is projected to see the fastest growth in this age group (average growth rate of 1.5 per cent per year) over the two decades to 2031.


Household Types

Households and Dwellings


Figure 5:Household types in the South District and Sydney Metropolitan Area, 2011 and 2031

20112031

HOUSEHOLDTYPES COUPLE ONLY COUPLE WITH

CHILDRENMULTIPLE +

OTHER FAMILYSINGLE PARENT LONE PERSON GROUP

22% 22% 37% 35% 11% 11% 4% 4% 22% 24% 5% 4%

23%

10%

20%

3%

23%

37%

11%

4% 3%

23%

SYDNEYMETROPOLITAN

AREACOMPARISONS

39%

4%


Household numbers in the South District are projected to grow to 284,900 by 2031, an increase of around 62,800 households from 2011.

‘Couple with children’ households will likely continue to be the dominant household type in the South District in the coming years (Figure 5). Between 2011 and 2031 ‘lone person’ households are likely to be the fastest growing household type in the South District, growing

at an average of 1.7 per cent per year, consistent with Sydney Metropolitan Area’s trend of growth for this household type.

In 2011, ‘couple with children’ were the dominant household type across the South District local government areas (Figure 6).



ROCKDALECANTERBURY

KOGARAHSUTHERLAND

HURSTVILLE

39%

23%

HOUSEHOLD TYPES

Lone Person Multiple & Other Family

Single Parent


Couple Only GroupCouple with Children

3%

19%

10%5%

40%

20%

3%

20%

12%5%

34%

23%

4%

23%

11%5%

40%

23%

4%

18%

10% 5%

40%

24%

2%

21%

9%4%


Figure 6: Household types in the local government areas of the South District, 2011


Dwelling Types


Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics 2012, 2011 Census of Population and Housing: Time Series Profile, Second Release, cat No. 2003.0, Canberra.

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics 2011, 2901.0 - Census Dictionary, 2011, Dwelling Structure (STRD), Canberra, 2011, viewed 25 February 2016, <www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/Lookup/2901.0Chapter29902011>

Figure 7: Dwelling types in the South District and Sydney Metropolitan Area, 2011

11%SEMI-DETACHED

31%FLAT, UNIT or

APARTMENT

57%SEPARATE HOUSE

DWELLINGTYPES

South District Sydney Metropolitan Area

30%FLAT, UNIT or

APARTMENT

57%SEPARATE HOUSE

13%SEMI-DETACHED


In 2011 separate houses were the dominant dwelling type in the South District, making up around 57 per cent of all dwelling stock, consistent with the Sydney Metropolitan Area average (Figure 7).

Sutherland had the greatest proportion of separate houses (65 per cent) among the local government areas of the South District, while Rockdale had the greatest proportion of apartment style housing (39 per cent) (Figure 8).

Australian Bureau of Statistics Definitions

Semi-detached: These dwellings have their own private grounds and no other dwelling above or below them. They are either attached in some structural way to one or more dwellings or are separated from neighbouring dwellings by less than half a metre (includes row or terrace house, townhouse). A house or flat attached to a shop, office, factory or any other non-residential structure is included in this category.

Flat, unit or apartment: This category includes all dwellings in blocks of flats, units or apartments. These dwellings do not have their own private grounds and usually share a common entrance foyer or stairwell. This category also includes flats attached to houses such as granny flats, and houses converted into two or more flats.

Separate house: This is a house which is separated from other dwellings by at least half a metre. A separate house may have a flat attached to it, such as a granny flat or converted garage (the flat is categorised under Flat, unit or apartment).



ROCKDALE

13%

48%39%

CANTERBURY

KOGARAH

56% 36%

8%

DWELLING TYPES

Separate House Flat, Unit or ApartmentSemi-detatched

SUTHERLAND

65%23%

12%

HURSTVILLE

58% 29%

12%

51%38%

10%


Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics 2012, 2011 Census of Population and Housing: Time Series Profile, Second Release, cat No. 2003.0, Canberra.

Figure 8: Dwelling types in local government areas of the South District, 2011



Dwelling Completions

Source: NSW Department of Planning and Environment, various years, Metropolitan Development Program Housing Monitor, Sydney.

Figure 9: Net dwelling completions in local government areas of the South District, 2005/06 to 2014/15

DWELLINGS

LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA

DWELIING COMPLETIONS (by �nancial year)2005/6 2010/112006/7 2011/122007/8 2012/13 2013/142008/9 2009/10

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2014/15

1200

CANTERBURY HURSTVILLE KOGARAH ROCKDALE SUTHERLAND

1400

Net dwelling completions in the South District over the past ten years show that most dwellings were built in Rockdale; large numbers of dwellings were also built in Sutherland and Canterbury (Figure 9).

Net dwelling completions in the South District over the past five years show a clear trend towards the construction of more multi-unit dwellings than detached houses. However existing stock is still dominated by detached houses in each local government area.



Housing Market Demand Areas

Source: NSW Department of Planning and Environment 2016, Housing Market Demand Area Map, Sydney.

Figure 10: Housing Market Demand Areas in the South District

Housing Market Demand Areas capture the locations that households move within. They are based on research undertaken by the City Futures Research Centre at the University of New South Wales which identified that 82 per cent of households in the Sydney Metropolitan Area move less than 15 kilometres.

The South District is characterised by five Housing Market Demand Areas: St George, Sutherland, Bankstown - Holsworthy, Inner West Burwood and Inner West Marrickville (Figure 10). The majority of Sutherland Housing

Market Demand Area and the whole of the St George Housing Market Demand Area is within the South District.

Supply in one Housing Market Demand Area may not satisfy demand for housing in others. Consideration of the preferences and needs of different household types is required at the local level.


The top five sectors in terms of economic output in the South District are manufacturing, rental, hiring and real estate services, construction, financial and insurance services and transport, postal and warehousing (Figure 11).

Health care is the major employer and is likely to remain the major growth industry in the District. Education, accommodation, construction and retail trade are expected to grow and remain significant employers.

Jobs by Sector

Employment and Economy

Source: Bureau of Transport Statistics 2014, Small Area Employment Forecast Model Version 2.0, Sydney.

Figure 11: Top employment sectors in the South District, 2011

MANUFACTURING

HEALTH CARE &SOCIAL ASSISTANCE

RETAIL TRADE

CONSTRUCTION

EDUCATION& TRAINING

ACCOMODATION & FOOD SERVICES

15%

13%

7%

9%

8%

8%

PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC &

TECHNICAL SERVICES 7%

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

& SAFETY 5%

TRANSPORT,POSTAL &

WAREHOUSING 5%

WHOLESALE TRADE 5%


Location of Jobs


Source: Bureau of Transport Statistics 2014, Small Area Employment Forecast Model Version 2.0, Sydney.

Figure 12: Job locations in the South District and the Sydney Metropolitan Area, 2011

12%STRATEGIC

CENTRES67%

DISPERSED LOCATIONS

21%INDUSTRIAL LANDS

South District Sydney Metropolitan Area

JOB LOCATIONS

43%STRATEGIC CENTRES

21%INDUSTRIAL LANDS

36%DISPERSED LOCATIONS


Around 12 per cent of all jobs in the South District are located in the Strategic Centres (Figure 12) of Hurstville (six per cent) and Kogarah (six per cent), well below the Sydney Metropolitan Area average of 43 per cent. The next two largest centres in the District provide seven per cent of the jobs, these are Miranda (four per cent) and Sutherland (three per cent).

Strategic Centres: The largest centres in the Sydney Metropolitan Area, when developed. They contain mixed-use activity of an amount, density and diversity that is of metropolitan significance, including commercial (office, business and retail), civic and cultural uses; government services; and higher density housing. They are typically on the passenger rail network or serviced by other high frequency public transport. Strategic Centres typically contain at least 10,000 jobs, with the potential to accommodate ongoing jobs growth over the long-term. They are priority locations for employment and retail activity.

Industrial lands: Land that is zoned for industry and/or warehouse uses including manufacturing; transport and warehousing; service and repair trades and industries; integrated enterprises with a mix of administration, production, warehousing, research and development; and urban services and utilities.

Dispersed locations: Any job that occurs that is not in a Strategic Centre or on industrial lands (e.g. local retail; health, and schools).



Journeys to Work

Source: REMPLAN 2015, Economic Modelling and Planning System, Victoria, using Australian Bureau of Statistics 2012, 2011 Census of Population Housing, Canberra.

Figure 13: South District residents’ journey to work by mode, 2011

PRIVATE VEHICLE(ONE MODE)

PUBLIC TRANSPORT(ONE OR MORE MODES)

WALK/CYCLE

WORKED FROM HOME/DID NOT WORK/OTHER


68%

7%

6%

19%

58%31%

1% 9%

LIVE AND WORK IN SOUTH DISTRICT

LIVE INSOUTH DISTRICT

AND WORK ELSEWHERE

The dispersed nature of jobs in the South District contributes to high levels of private car use for internal journeys to work.

The majority of jobs for workers in the South District will continue to be outside the District in the Central Sydney CBD and at the Airport and Port Botany. Public transport accounts for 31 per cent of journeys out of the District, but private vehicles still account for 58 per cent of trips out of the District (Figure 13).



Contribution to the Economy

Source: NSW Department of Planning and Environment 2014, A Plan for Growing Sydney, Sydney, p.37, Fig 12.

Figure 14: Main economic activity in Sydney by industry with the greatest contribution to each LGA’s Gross Regional Product

Manufacturing contributes 21 per cent of the South District total economic output – significantly higher than the North District where manufacturing contributes to 17 per cent of output and Central District where it contributes just nine per cent.

Figure 14 identifies the industry with the highest contribution to the gross regional product for each local government area in the South District.

south district - planning.nsw.gov.au

Documents