south african economic indicators november 2011
DESCRIPTION
South African Economic Indicators November 2011. Market Overview. Index. Economic Growth (GDP) 3 Exchange Rate 5 Input Prices 7 Inflation 13 Interest Rates 18 Employment 20 Household Debt 22 Consumer Confidence 24 Retail Sales 26. Market Overview. Boom period. Economic Growth (GDP). - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
© 2011 Trade Intelligence
South African Economic IndicatorsNovember 2011
© 2011 Trade Intelligence
Index
Economic Growth (GDP)3
Exchange Rate5
Input Prices
7
Inflation
13
Interest Rates
18
Employment
20
Household Debt22
Consumer Confidence24
Retail Sales
26
Market Overview
© 2011 Trade Intelligence
Fig 1: GDP GrowthUpdated 01 December 2011
Market Overview
Source: StatsSA
Q1/
01Q
2/01
Q3/
01Q
4/01
Q1/
02Q
2/02
Q3/
02Q
4/02
Q1/
03Q
2/03
Q3/
03Q
4/03
Q1/
04Q
2/04
Q3/
04Q
4/04
Q1/
05Q
2/05
Q3/
05Q
4/05
Q1/
06Q
2/06
Q3/
06Q
4/06
Q1/
07Q
2/07
Q3/
07Q
4/07
Q1/
08Q
2/08
Q3/
08Q
4/08
Q1/
09Q
2/09
Q3/
09Q
4/09
Q1/
10Q
2/10
Q3/
10Q
4/10
Q1/
11Q
2/11
Q3/
11
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2.9%
2.1%
1.0%
3.1%
4.5% 5.
4%4.
3%3.
9%2.
7%2.
2% 2.5% 2.8%
6.1% 6.3% 7.
2%3.
6%5.
1%5.
2%5.
1%4.
5%6.
2%6.
2%4.
8%6.
0%5.
5%3.
7% 4.5% 5.
4%1.
7%4.
9%0.
2%-1
.8%
-7.4%
-2.8
%0.
9%3.
1%4.
8%2.
8%2.
7%4.
5%4.
5%1.
3%1.
4%
2008/2009 Recession
Period of recovery
Double dip?
Boom periodEconomic Growth (GDP)
© 2011 Trade Intelligence
Market Overview
COMMENTARY• GDP ticked up slightly from 1.3% in Q2 of 2011 to 1.4% in Q3 2011, coming in at lower than
expected• Growth forecasts for the rest of the year have been revised downward even further to 3.0%,
and in some cases even lower
The persistent climate of stagflation currently being experienced in South Africa means the country is slipping closer and closer to a point where activity could border on a recession, leading many analysts to believe there is a good chance of a rate cut being announced as early as January 2012. While an interest rate cut would stimulate activity, it will not however represent a quick fix for the economy – demand in exports is coming down due to problems in the Euro zone (South Africa’s biggest trading partner), unemployment remains high as does inflation, all factors contributing towards a shaky outlook.
Economic Growth (GDP)
© 2011 Trade Intelligence
Fig 1: Exchange RateUpdated 01 December 2011
Market Overview
Source: StatsSA
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Average ZAR/USD Average ZAR/EURO Average ZAR/POUND
Euro officially launched
2008/2009 Recession &
election uncertainty
Rand fallout
Euro debt crisis
Exchange Rate
© 2011 Trade Intelligence
Market Overview
COMMENTARY• The rand (along with other emerging market currencies) continues to weaken against all
majors, reaching its lowest level in two and a half years against the US$ in late November• The rand has depreciated by about 20% against the dollar, the euro and the pound so far
this year • This has the dual effect of keeping exports cheaper, but at the same time pushing inflation
higher
South Africans have been labeled as quite “schizophrenic” regarding their reaction to the rand. When it is strong, there are calls to weaken it in order to make exports cheaper, and when it is weak, we are dissatisfied because it puts pressure on inflation. Unfortunately, local policy makers have little control over the fate of the rand. It will wax and wane with the global environment. According to RMB, the trouble is not so much the level of the rand, but its volatility. In 2011 it fluctuated between R6,56/$1 and R8,58/$1, making international trade and long-term investment decisions more difficult to make, hurting business sentiment.
Exchange Rate
© 2011 Trade Intelligence
Fig 1: Oilseed Market TrendsUpdated 01 December 2011
Market Overview
Source: FNB
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
Q4 2008
Q1 2009
Q2 2009
Q3 2009
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Sunflower Spot Soya Spot
c/kg
Prices drop due to larger than expected supplies in international markets
Prices rise due to cut in US supply forecast
Input Prices: Oilseed
© 2011 Trade Intelligence
Fig 2: Cereal Market TrendsUpdated 01 December 2011
Market Overview
Source: FNB
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
Q4 2008
Q1 2009
Q2 2009
Q3 2009
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Yellow Maize White Maize Wheat
R/ton
Prices of yellow maize & white maize increased
by ± 28% and 35% during 2011
Surplus of grains in international markets
knocks prices
Input Prices: Cereals (Maize, Wheat)
© 2011 Trade Intelligence
Fig 3: Beef and Poultry Market TrendsUpdated 01 December 2011
Market Overview
Source: FNB
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
Q4 2008
Q1 2009
Q2 2009
Q3 2009
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Frozen whole chicken Fresh whole chicken Contract beef Weaner calf
Chicken prices show stability, while beef is
more susceptible to infla-tionary pressures
Prices rise due to increase in prices at
producer level
Input Prices: Beef & Poultry
© 2011 Trade Intelligence
Fig 4: Vegetable Market TrendsUpdated 01 December 2011
Market Overview
Source: FNB
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
Q4 2008
Q1 2009
Q2 2009
Q3 2009
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Tomatoes Potatoes Onions Carrots Cabbage
Prices dip due to increase in volumes
Supplies decrease due to black frost in central and northern regions, pushing up
prices
Vegetable prices have historically been subject to
volatility
Input Prices: Vegetables
© 2011 Trade Intelligence
Fig 5: Fuel Market Trends – Petrol, Diesel, ParaffinUpdated 01 December 2011
Market Overview
Source: FNB
01/0
603
/06
05/0
607
/06
09/0
611
/06
01/0
703
/07
05/0
707
/07
09/0
711
/07
01/0
803
/08
05/0
807
/08
09/0
811
/08
01/0
903
/09
05/0
907
/09
09/0
911
/09
01/1
003
/10
05/1
007
/10
09/1
011
/10
01/1
103
/11
05/1
107
/11
09/1
111
/11
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
Unleaded Petrol - Inland 95 Diesel (Sulphur) Reef Illuminating Paraffiin (Reef)
c/litre
Decline in oil reserves, Middle East tension & oil price speculation
Demand for energy drops due to
recession Unrest in African oil producing countries
Fuel price increase due to weak rand
Input Prices: Fuel
© 2011 Trade Intelligence
Market Overview
COMMENTARY• Electricity prices continue to impact businesses and consumers• Vegetable prices experienced a dip across the board, with the prices of tomatoes, potatoes,
carrots and cabbage decreasing• Maize prices saw a slight drop in November
According to the United Nations, food prices have doubled over the past five years indicating that the trend is an rising one. In the short-term, food inflation has mainly been attributed to the rise in the price of maize, and it is believed that the full effect of the maize price has not yet filtered down completely to influence meat and dairy prices due to production cycles.
Input Prices
© 2011 Trade Intelligence
Fig 1: CPI, CPIX and Food InflationUpdated 01 December 2011
Market Overview
Source: StatsSA
Jan
06M
ar 0
6M
ay 0
6Ju
l 06
Sep
06
Nov
06
Jan
07M
ar 0
7M
ay 0
7Ju
l 07
Sep
07
Nov
07
Jan
08M
ar 0
8M
ay 0
8Ju
l 08
Sep
08
Nov
08
Jan
09M
ar 0
9M
ay 0
9Ju
l 09
Sep
09
Nov
09
Jan
10M
ar 1
0M
ay 1
0Ju
l 10
Sep
10
Nov
10
Jan
11M
ar 1
1M
ay 1
1Ju
l 11
Sep
11
Nov
11
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
Food and non-alcoholic beverages CPI PPI Lower Target Upper Target
CHANGE OF BASKET WEIGHTINGFuel, electricity &
food price increases
2008/2009 Recession
Effects of lower
demand
Inflation
© 2011 Trade Intelligence
Fig 1: CPI for Food, Personal Care, Alcoholic Beverages and Electricity and other FuelsUpdated 01 December 2011
Market Overview
Source: StatsSA
Jan-
09
Feb-
09
Mar
-09
Apr
-09
May
-09
Jun-
09
Jul-0
9
Aug
-09
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
Nov
-09
Dec
-09
Jan-
10
Feb-
10
Mar
-10
Apr
-10
May
-10
Jun-
10
Jul-1
0
Aug
-10
Sep
-10
Oct
-10
Nov
-10
Dec
-10
Jan-
11
Feb-
11
Mar
-11
Apr
-11
May
-11
Jun-
11
Jul-1
1
Aug
-11
Sep
-11
Oct
-11
-4
1
6
11
16
21
26
31
36
Food Personal Care Alcoholic Beverages Electricity and other Fuels
Fuel and electricity price hikes push food prices up
Alcoholic beverage prices remain stable
Inflation
© 2011 Trade Intelligence
Fig 1: CPI by Food Type Updated 01 December 2011
Market Overview
Source: StatsSA
All Item
s
Proces
sed F
oods
Unproc
esse
d Foo
ds
Bread a
nd C
ereals
Meat
Fish
Milk, E
ggs a
nd C
hees
e
Oils an
d Fats Frui
t
Vegeta
bles
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
6.0%
10.3% 10.5%8.9%
14.6%
7.7%
2.7%
22.6%
9.8%11.8%
October 2011Most food groups are experiencing inflation well above CPI levels
of 6%
Inflation: CPI by Food Type
© 2011 Trade Intelligence
Fig 1: CPI by ProvinceUpdated 01 December 2011
Market Overview
Source: StatsSA
Wes
tern C
ape
Easter
n Cap
e
Northe
rn Cap
e
Free S
tate
KwaZulu
Nata
l
North W
est
Gauten
g
Mpumala
nga
Limpo
po0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
5.9%
7.1%7.6%
6.6%6.0%
6.6%5.9% 6.1% 6.1%
October 2011
Only Gauteng and the Western Cape are
experiencing inflation below CPI levels
Inflation: CPI by Province
© 2011 Trade Intelligence
Market Overview
COMMENTARY• CPI increased from 5.7% in September to 6% in October, its highest level since January
2010• PPI increased from 10.5% to 10.6%• Food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation increased from 8.5% to 10.6% in October, its
highest level since May 2009• The Reserve Bank expects inflation to peak at about 6,3% in the first quarter of 2012 before
declining gradually and returning to within the target range in the final quarter
October saw CPI reaching the Central Bank’s upper target of 6%. Analysts were of the opinion that the Bank may therefore start toying with the idea of cutting interest rates to boost the economy. Higher food and fuel costs have been driving the rise in prices, coupled with a rand exchange rate that has weakened close to 30% against the dollar this year. However Reserve Bank Governor Gill Marcus commented that “in the current climate we think we should watch (the breach) rather than respond to it”. It is therefore likely that the Reserve Bank will continue with its “wait and see approach” and consumers will have to deal with higher prices for a little while longer.NOTE: In January 2009, the official measure of inflation in South Africa switched from the CPIX, based on a basket of goods and services excluding bond repayments, to the CPI, which includes bond repayments, and is based on a basket which has been reweighted to be more representative of what the average South African household is spending its money on.
Inflation
© 2011 Trade Intelligence
Fig 1: Prime Lending RateUpdated 01 December 2011
Market Overview
Source: South African Reserve Bank
Jan
2000
May
200
0S
ep 2
000
Jan
2001
May
200
1S
ep 2
001
Jan
2002
May
200
2S
ep 2
002
Jan
2003
May
200
3S
ep 2
003
Jan
2004
May
200
4S
ep 2
004
Jan
2005
May
200
5S
ep 2
005
Jan
2006
May
200
6S
ep 2
006
Jan
2007
May
200
7S
ep 2
007
Jan
2008
May
200
8S
ep 2
008
Jan
2009
May
200
9S
ep 2
009
Jan
2010
May
201
0S
ep 2
010
Jan
2011
May
201
1S
ep 2
011
Jan
2012
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
15%
17%
19%
Rate
2008/2009 Recession
SARB takes aggressive steps to fight inflation
SARB adopts ‘wait & see’ approach
Interest Rates
© 2011 Trade Intelligence
Market Overview
COMMENTARY• The prime lending rate remains at 9% as the Reserve Bank decided to leave the repo rate
unchanged at 5.5% • This is the lowest level since 1974
The prime interest rate is expected to stay unchanged at 9% until late next year due to global economic concerns and slow growth. This low interest rate environment has led to households reducing their debt to disposable income ratio from more than 81% three years ago to 75.9% in the second quarter of 2011. This means the cost of servicing debt as a percentage of disposable income of households also declined, leaving South African consumers with more disposable income. However, despite this positive shift, debt levels are still extremely high and this, coupled with high food and fuel prices will probably cause consumers to buy more non-durables, like food and clothing this Christmas, say analysts. While this is good news for South Africa’s major food retailers, it does mean that sales of higher margin goods such as general merchandise will probably be muted.
Interest Rates
© 2011 Trade Intelligence
Fig 1: Key Labour Market ComponentsUpdated 09 November 2011
Market Overview
Source: StatsSA
Mar
200
1Ju
n 20
01S
ep 2
001
Dec
200
1M
ar 2
002
Jun
2002
Sep
200
2D
ec 2
002
Mar
200
3Ju
n 20
03S
ep 2
003
Dec
200
3M
ar 2
004
Jun
2004
Sep
200
4D
ec 2
004
Mar
200
5Ju
n 20
05S
ep 2
005
Dec
200
5M
ar 2
006
Jun
2006
Sep
200
6D
ec 2
006
Mar
200
7Ju
n 20
07S
ep 2
007
Dec
200
7M
ar 2
008
Jun
2008
Sep
200
8D
ec 2
008
Mar
200
9Ju
n 20
09S
ep 2
009
Dec
200
9M
ar 2
010
Jun
2010
Sep
201
0D
ec 2
010
Mar
201
1Ju
n 20
11S
ep 2
011
3000400050006000700080009000
10000110001200013000140001500016000170001800019000
Employed Not Economically Active Labour force Unemployed
Expanded Public Works Programme introduced
Effects of recession felt
Employment
© 2011 Trade Intelligence
Market Overview
COMMENTARY• The official unemployment rate went down from 25.7% to 25% in the third quarter of 2011• Restrictive labour laws and a lack of skills among the youth are two of the major problems
currently facing the labour market today
The number of persons in the labour force increased by 98,000 between Q2 2011 and Q3 2011 and formal sector employment increased by 238,000 jobs, while informal sector employment decreased by 53,000 jobs. It is hoped that the much discussed Youth Wage Subsidy will be implemented as planned on 1 April 2012, reducing chronic youth unemployment, aiding businesses which are struggling with high wage costs and increasing consumer spending. According to StatsSA, more than 72% of the officially unemployed population is younger than 34.Low levels of employment means fewer breadwinners in South African families and therefore lower disposable income. It is hoped though, that the country can build on the small improvement of the last quarter.
Employment
© 2011 Trade Intelligence
Fig 1: Percentage of Disposable Household Income Devoted to Debt RepaymentUpdated 09 November 2011
Market Overview
Source: South African Reserve Bank
2005
/Q1
2005
/Q2
2005
/Q3
2005
/Q4
2006
/Q1
2006
/Q2
2006
/Q3
2006
/Q4
2007
/Q1
2007
/Q2
2007
/Q3
2007
/Q4
2008
/Q1
2008
/Q2
2008
/Q3
2008
/Q4
2009
/Q1
2009
/Q2
2009
/Q3
2009
/Q4
2010
/Q1
2010
/Q2
2010
/Q3
2010
/Q4
2011
/Q1
2011
/Q2
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
Effects of low interest rates
Boom period
Household Debt
© 2011 Trade Intelligence
Market Overview
COMMENTARY• Household debt dropped to 75.9% (Q2, 2011), meaning that for every R100 earned,
households have R75.90 debt • The level was described by Reserve Bank chief economist, Monde Mnyande as “relatively
elevated”• Q2 also showed a rise in YOY disposable income growth from 8.9% (Q1) to 9.9%
Though the debt situation improved slightly in the second quarter, consumers are still experiencing high levels of financial vulnerability regarding debt. This is shown by the percentage of consumers with impaired records increasing from 46.4% (Q1) to 46.7% (Q2). Some analysts are of the opinion that although the ratio of household debt to disposable income is declining, this is taking place too slowly and as long as it remains relatively high, South Africans will continue to be in a vulnerable position and economic growth under threat.
Household Debt
© 2011 Trade Intelligence
Fig 1: Consumer Confidence IndexUpdated 01 December 2011
Market Overview
Source: Bureau for Economic Research
Mar
01
Jun
01S
ep 0
1D
ec 0
1M
ar 0
2Ju
n 02
Sep
02
Dec
02
Mar
03
Jun
03S
ep 0
3D
ec 0
3M
ar 0
4Ju
n 04
Sep
04
Dec
04
Mar
05
Jun
05S
ep 0
5D
ec 0
5M
ar 0
6Ju
n 06
Sep
06
Dec
06
Mar
07
Jun
07S
ep 0
7D
ec 0
7M
ar 0
8Ju
n 08
Sep
08
Dec
08
Mar
09
Jun
09S
ep 0
9D
ec 0
9M
ar 1
0Ju
n 10
Sep
10
Dec
10
Mar
11
Jun
11S
ep 1
1D
ec 1
1
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
3
-7-9 -9
-2
1
-1
-12
0 1
-9
4
-7
20
64
1917 17
20 21 20
17 18
2321
18
22
12
-6
-1
-4
1
4
1
6
15 14 15 14
911
4 5
2008/2009 Recession
Boom period –
High levels of GDP growth
Period of recovery
Consumer Confidence
© 2011 Trade Intelligence
Market Overview
COMMENTARY• Consumer confidence increased by 1 index point in Q4 of 2011 to +5 (from +4 in Q3 of
2011)• Consumer confidence increased due to a slightly higher percentage of consumers
expecting an improvement in their household finances and a slightly lower percentage rating the present as the wrong time to buy durable goods relative to Q3 of 2011
• However, these increases were partially countered by a decline in the percentage of consumers that expect the economic situation in South Africa to improve over the next 12 months
In Q4 of 2011 consumers became even more pessimistic about the economy, but slightly more optimistic about their own finances. Consumer confidence remains above average though, supportive of consumer spending. This means that consumers will spend the bulk of any increases in real disposable income going forward. However, accelerating inflation will likely dent the growth in real disposable income over the short term, which will probably lead to lower growth in consumer spending given the limited access to bank credit.
Consumer Confidence
© 2011 Trade Intelligence
Fig 1: Retail Trade Sales (R’m)Updated 01 December 2011
Market Overview
Source: South African Reserve Bank
Jan
2002
Apr
200
2Ju
l 200
2O
ct 2
002
Jan
2003
Apr
200
3Ju
l 200
3O
ct 2
003
Jan
2004
Apr
200
4Ju
l 200
4O
ct 2
004
Jan
2005
Apr
200
5Ju
l 200
5O
ct 2
005
Jan
2006
Apr
200
6Ju
l 200
6O
ct 2
006
Jan
2007
Apr
200
7Ju
l 200
7O
ct 2
007
Jan
2008
Apr
200
8Ju
l 200
8O
ct 2
008
Jan
2009
Apr
200
9Ju
l 200
9O
ct 2
009
Jan
2010
Apr
201
0Ju
l 201
0O
ct 2
010
Jan
2011
Apr
201
1Ju
l 201
1O
ct 2
011
2000022500250002750030000325003500037500400004250045000475005000052500550005750060000
Spikes indicate festive season sales peaks
Retail Sales
© 2011 Trade Intelligence
Fig 2: Retail Trade Sales (R’m) – Trended Updated 01 December 2011
Market Overview
Source: StatsSA. Measure: Economic activity in the retail trade based on a sample of income tax registered private & public enterprises (incl VAT). Consists of food, beverages & tobacco (largest contributor ± 35%), pharmaceutical & medical goods, cosmetics, toiletries, household furniture, appliances, articles & equipment, repair of personal & household goods, hardware, paints & glass, textiles, clothing, footwear & leather goods.
Jan
2002
Apr
200
2Ju
l 200
2O
ct 2
002
Jan
2003
Apr
200
3Ju
l 200
3O
ct 2
003
Jan
2004
Apr
200
4Ju
l 200
4O
ct 2
004
Jan
2005
Apr
200
5Ju
l 200
5O
ct 2
005
Jan
2006
Apr
200
6Ju
l 200
6O
ct 2
006
Jan
2007
Apr
200
7Ju
l 200
7O
ct 2
007
Jan
2008
Apr
200
8Ju
l 200
8O
ct 2
008
Jan
2009
Apr
200
9Ju
l 200
9O
ct 2
009
Jan
2010
Apr
201
0Ju
l 201
0O
ct 2
010
Jan
2011
Apr
201
1Ju
l 201
1O
ct 2
011
2000022500250002750030000325003500037500400004250045000475005000052500550005750060000
Effects of 2008/2009 Recession
felt
Boom period
Positive retail environment
despite economic
uncertaintyRetail Sales: Trended
© 2011 Trade Intelligence
Market Overview
COMMENTARY• Retail sales growth for September unexpectedly accelerated to 8.3% compared to
September 2010, when the market had expected growth of 6.4%• The highest growth rate was recorded by retailers in hardware, paint and glass while
retailers of food, beverages and tobacco in specialised stores experienced a 0% YOY increase in retail sales for the month
Analysts believe that this level of growth is unsustainable and must be considered in light of the soccer World Cup last year, which had caused a spike then created a lower base for the current results. It is however an indication that the low interest rates, slightly improved employment levels and high nominal income levels are supporting some South African consumers, although food retailers seem to be suffering from high food inflation levels globally. With household debt still so high, consumers are expected to spend cautiously this festive season.
Retail Sales
© 2011 Trade Intelligence
DisclaimerThese materials and the information contained herein are collated by TI* referencing a wide range of public domain data sources, face-to-face interviews, retailer presentations and financial reports, and are intended to provide general information about the South African consumer goods trading environment and selected retailers, and are not intended as an exhaustive treatment of such subjects.
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