Source: What Fuels will Move Us? Barker, Bill. ITE Journal. July 2010

One Key to Directing Growth…

1. Plan & Influence1. Plan & Influence Development Economics

Graphic from K2 Urban Corp

Regional Growth “Engines”

50,000 students & employees50,000 students & employees

50,000 50,000 ++ employees employees

15,000 students & employees15,000 students & employees

15,000 students & 15,000 students & employeesemployees

Land Development Growth “Pioneers”

Land Development Growth “Roof-top Followers”

RMP Development Scenarios

Business-as-Usual(Scattered / Linear)

Quality Growth(Contiguous / USA fringe)

“Quality Growth Plus”(Compact / Infill)

Long-term Operation & Maintenance Commitment

Education…………………..Public Safety..…………….Roads……………………….Wastewater………………..

Fire/Rescue; Water; Parks; Solid Waste..........

40% 8%30%11%

11%

Public Service Percent of Avg. Annual Cost

Source: Duncan and Associates. The Search for Efficient Urban Growth Patterns: A Study of Fiscal Impacts of Florida Development. Governor’s Task Force on Urban Growth Patterns and DCA. Tallahassee FL, 1989.

Impacts on Traffic Activity

Form / Location

Business-as-Usual(Scattered / Linear)

Quality Growth(Contiguous / USA fringe)

“Quality Growth Plus”(Compact / Infill)

Avg. Traffic Trip Length

Duncan’89 FDOT (335.067, F.S.) Weighted Avg.

8.3 mi 12.1mi 11.2mi

6.4mi 9.6mi 8.8mi

6.8mi 4.9mi 5.4mi

100 lot subdivision

Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)

Streets & Roadways Maintenance

Data Sources: City of Tallahassee Annual Budget, Leon County Annual Budget, Leon County CIP, FDOT Historical Work Program, and FDOT Countywide VMT Estimate

* Excluding I-10 Costs and Traffic

Costs of Development Location

(P/A, 3%, 35)

You can affect Development Location Decisions…

Graphic from K2 Urban Corp

100 lot subdivision

Land Development ProForma

Revenue (Sales) $11,250,000CostsLand Acquisition $ 1,800,000Site Infrastructure $ 900,000Product Cost (COGS) $ 5,000,000Transportation $ 400,000Interest Carry (5yrs) $ 1,200,000

Subtotal $ 9,300,000

Potential Margin / ROI $ 1,950,000 (20%)

(Off-site infrastructure)

(Off-site infrastructure)

Land Development ProForma

Revenue (Sales) $11,250,000CostsLand Acquisition $ 1,800,000Site Infrastructure $ 900,000Product Cost (COGS) $ 5,000,000Transportation $ 400,000Interest Carry (5yrs) $ 1,200,000

Subtotal $ 9,300,000

Potential Margin / ROI $ 1,950,000 (20%)

Here is what you can influence…

17%

Land Development ProForma

Revenue (Sales) $11,250,000CostsLand Acquisition $ 1,800,000Site Infrastructure $ 900,000Product Cost (COGS) $ 5,000,000Transportation $ 400,000Interest Carry (5yrs) $ 1,200,000

Subtotal $ 9,300,000

Potential Margin / ROI $ 1,950,000 (20%)

Reduce Interest Carry…

(Off-site infrastructure)

Land Development ProForma

Revenue (Sales) $11,250,000CostsLand Acquisition $ 1,800,000Site Infrastructure $ 900,000Product Cost (COGS) $ 5,000,000Transportation $ 400,000Interest Carry (44yrs) $ 900,000

Subtotal $ 9,000,000

Potential Margin / ROI $ 2,250,000 (25%)

Reduce Interest Carry…

Build There!!!

(Off-site infrastructure)

Land Development ProForma

Revenue (Sales) $11,250,000CostsLand Acquisition $ 1,800,000Site Infrastructure $ 900,000Product Cost (COGS) $ 5,000,000Transportation $ 400,000Interest Carry (5yrs) $ 1,200,000

Subtotal $ 9,300,000

Potential Margin / ROI $ 1,950,000 (20%)

Here is what you can influence….

(Off-site infrastructure)

Land Development ProForma

Revenue (Sales) $11,250,000CostsLand Acquisition $ 1,800,000Site Infrastructure $ 900,000Product Cost (COGS) $ 5,000,000Transportation $ 40,000Interest Carry (5yrs) $ 1,200,000

Subtotal $ 8,940,000

Potential Margin / ROI $ 2,310,000 (26%)

Build There!!!

Here is what you’ve helped….

(Off-site infrastructure)

Land Development ProForma

Revenue (Sales) $11,250,000CostsLand Acquisition $ 1,800,000Site Infrastructure $ 900,000Product Cost (COGS) $ 5,000,000Transportation $ 40,000Interest Carry (4yrs) $ 900,000

Subtotal $ 8,640,000

Potential Margin / ROI $ 2,610,000 (30%)

Direct Incentives…

Build There!!!

(Off-site infrastructure)

Parcel Assemblage v. Simple Purchase

I know there is a marketneed for my product,where should I buy

the land?

Parcel Assemblage v. Simple Purchase

Lemme see, should Itry to deal with 12 sellers

and their attorneys, orjust Farmer Brown?

Proforma Category Influence / Action

Revenue (Sales)…….

Costs

Land Acquisition……

Site Infrastructure……

Product Cost (COGS)

Transportation……

Interest Carry……….

Guiding Growth through Development Economics

Public Investment - Community Fabric; Public Transit; Active Transportation; Streetscapes; Public Education; etc.

Density / Property Yield

n/a

n/a

Incentives/Disincentives

Streamline Permitting

Regional Growth Influence Areas