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Trusted Science Cleaner Air Better Health
Source Apportionment of PM2.5 in India
Pallavi Pant
Health Effects InstituteJuly 18, 2019
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What is the Health Effects Institute?
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An independent non-profit institute providing trusted science on the health effects of air pollution for nearly 40 years
Over 350 scientific studies, reviews, re-analyses conducted around the world, including increasingly in Asia
Balanced Core Support – a public-private partnership
Partnerships- international agencies, donors, non-profits, academic institutions etc.
Independent Board and Expert Science Committees
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HEI’s work in India
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Public Health and Air Pollution in Asia GBD-MAPS India State of Global Air
https://www.healtheffects.org/system/files/SR18AsianLitReview.pdf ; https://www.healtheffects.org/publication/public-health-and-air-pollution-asia-papa-coordinated-studies-short-term-exposure-airhttps://www.healtheffects.org/publication/gbd-air-pollution-indiawww.stateofglobalair.org
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Approaches for source apportionment
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Bottom-up
Top-down
Emissions inventories, chemical transport models
Ambient air quality measurements, source fingerprints
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Source Apportionment using top-down approaches
5Pant P and Harrison RM (2012) Atmospheric Environment, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.11.060
Six City Source Apportionment Study
Chemical Mass Balance (CMB)
Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF)
Other multivariate methods
Real-time source apportionment
Back of the envelope version of calculation
tracer species i in airtotal PM in air
total PM from source
tracer species i from sourcesource contribution =
source profile or fingerprint
MeasureWant to knowspecies j measured in sample i
(ambient measurements)
p
kijjkikij efgx
1
residual
mass fraction of species j from source k(source profile or fingerprint)
mass from source k in sample i(source contribution)
# of sources = p # of samples = m# of species = n
Mathematical Framework
Top‐Down Source Apportionment Math
Credit: Dr. Mike Hannigan
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GBD-MAPS India
An international collaboration
Indian leads: Dr. Chandra Venkataraman, IIT-Bombay; Kalpana Balakrishnan, Sri Ramachandran University
HEI in collaboration with IIT-Mumbai, Tsinghua University, University of British Columbia and IHME; others
Goals Identify what sources contribute the most to poor air quality and healthEvaluate the implications of alternative control policies on future impactsProvide a baseline against which to measure future progress
6https://www.healtheffects.org/publication/gbd-air-pollution-india
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GBD-MAPS approach
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Simulate using atmospheric, chemical transport models (GEOS-CHEM, nested-south Asia version); scaled to satellite data
Link to gridded population data
Apply GBD exposure response functions
Emissions inventories, current and projected under alternative scenarios for 2030 and 2050
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Major source contributors to baseline PM2.5 levels and health burden at the national level
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Residential biomass burning (24.4%) is the largest individual contributor to the burden of disease in India, followed by coal combustion (15.5%) and open burning of agricultural residue.
https://www.healtheffects.org/publication/gbd-air-pollution-india
2015
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But this isn’t the only study-- how do the different estimates compare?
9Apte JS and Pant P. (2019) Towards Cleaner Air for a Billion Indians. PNAS, doi: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1905458116
National estimates: bottom-up modelling
City-level estimates: bottom-up/top-down
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No single sector - silver bullet that will solve our air pollution problem
Need coordinated multi-sectoral regional action, as well as the city-level action as mandated by NCAP
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Improved data access as well as data transparency
Ongoing assessment – convergence of results from various approaches
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50 cities
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Questions for discussion
Per NCAP, cities will be required to conduct source apportionment analysis.
Are there common protocols/methodologies to be used?
How will source apportionment analyses be used?
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Who will do this? How?
Standard Operating Procedures QA/QC Processes
Prioritize sources to control? Seasonal contributions? Measurement of progress?