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Energetics A Reality Check On Alternative Energies

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Page 1: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

Energetics A Reality Check

OnAlternative Energies

Page 2: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

Something that caneffectively replace

something else.

‘Alternative’

In Quantity

And in Quality

Page 3: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

Solar

Some Options forAlternative Energy

Tidal/Wave

Wind

Nuclear

Bio Fuels Hydrogen

Fuel Cells

Fusion

Tar Sands

Anything that replaces FOSSIL FUELS

Geothermal

LIQUID FUELS ELECTRICITY

Hydro

Page 4: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

87% is Fossil Fuels

Page 5: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

Concept Reality

Money Energy

Mind vs Body

Quantity Quality

Economics Energetics

Page 6: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

1st Law of Economics

Growth

Page 7: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

Laws of Money

Page 8: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

Laws of Money

Page 9: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

Compound Growth

Page 10: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

Exponential Growth

Page 11: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

Perpetual Exponential Growth

Money

Curve

NO LIMITSThe Money Onion

This looks DANGEROUS!

Page 12: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

Exponential Growth

NO LIMITS

Becomes 100 Crores

At 7% doubles in 10 years.

1024 times

BUTSo does use of RESOURCES

10 lakhs

10 decades…..

Page 13: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

Money vs Energy

Money

Energy

1860

OIL

Page 14: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

#1 - World RUNS on oil.

Transport Industry Agriculture

Electricity

Page 15: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

#1 - World RUNS on oil.

Transport Industry Agriculture

Electricity

Page 16: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

#1 - World RUNS on oil.

Transport Industry Agriculture

Electricity

Page 17: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

#1 - World RUNS on oil.

Transport Industry Agriculture

Electricity

Page 18: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

#1 - World RUNS on oil.

Transport Industry Agriculture

Electricity

From 1 barrel (42 gallons) of oil

Only 78% goes to make petrol

Page 19: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

#2 - World BUILT with oil.

Bitumen Plastics Fertilizers Lubricants

The Remaining – 22% goes to make …..

Page 20: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

#2 - World BUILT with oil.

Bitumen Plastics Fertilizers Lubricants

The Remaining – 22% goes to make …..

Page 21: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

#2 - World BUILT with oil.

Bitumen Plastics Fertilizers Lubricants

The Remaining – 22% goes to make …..

Page 22: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

#2 - World BUILT with oil.

Bitumen Plastics Fertilizers Lubricants

The Remaining – 22% goes to make …..

Page 23: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

#2 - World BUILT with oil.

Bitumen Plastics Fertilizers Lubricants

The Remaining – 22% goes to make …..

Page 24: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

Rest goes into making.

Ammonia, Anesthetics, Antihistamines, Artificial limbs, Artificial Turf, Antiseptics, Aspirin, Auto Parts, Awnings, Balloons, Ballpoint pens, Bandages, Beach Umbrellas, Boats, Cameras, Candles, Car Battery Cases, Carpets, Caulking, Combs, Cortisones, Cosmetics, Crayons, Credit Cards, Curtains, Deodorants, Detergents, Dice, Disposable Diapers, Dolls, Dyes, Eye Glasses, Electrical Wiring Insulation, Faucet Washers, Fishing Rods, Fishing Line, Fishing Lures, Food Preservatives, Food Packaging, Garden Hose, Glue, Hair Coloring, Hair Curlers, Hand Lotion, Hearing Aids, Heart Valves, Ink, Insect Repellant, Insecticides, Linoleum, Lip Stick, Milk Jugs, Nail Polish, Oil Filters, Panty Hose, Perfume, Petroleum Jelly, Rubber Cement, Rubbing Alcohol,  Shampoo, Shaving Cream, Shoes, Toothpaste, Trash Bags, Upholstery, Vitamin Capsules, Water Pipes, Yarn

Page 25: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

42 of 6000 items from Oil.

Solvents Diesel fuel Motor Oil Bearing Grease Ink Floor Wax Ballpoint Pens Football Cleats Upholstery Sweaters Boats Insecticides Bicycle Tires Sports Car Bodies Nail Polish Fishing lures Dresses Tires Golf Bags Perfumes Cassettes Dishwasher parts Tool Boxes Shoe Polish Motorcycle Helmet Caulking Petroleum Jelly Transparent Tape CD Player Faucet Washers Antiseptics Clothesline Curtains Food Preservatives Basketballs Soap Vitamin Capsules Antihistamines Purses Shoes Dashboards Cortisone Deodorant Footballs Putty Dyes Panty Hose Refrigerant Percolators Life Jackets Rubbing Alcohol Linings Skis TV Cabinets Shag Rugs Electrician's Tape Tool Racks Car Battery Cases Epoxy Paint Mops Slacks Insect Repellent Oil Filters Umbrellas Yarn Fertilizers Hair Coloring Roofing Toilet Seats Fishing Rods Lipstick Denture Adhesive Linoleum Ice Cube Trays Synthetic Rubber Speakers Plastic Wood Electric Blankets Glycerin Tennis Rackets Rubber Cement Fishing Boots Dice Nylon Rope Candles Trash Bags House Paint Water Pipes Hand Lotion Roller Skates Surf Boards Shampoo Wheels Paint Rollers Shower Curtains Guitar Strings Luggage Aspirin Safety Glasses Antifreeze Football Helmets Awnings Eyeglasses Clothes Toothbrushes Ice Chests Footballs Combs CD's & DVD's Paint Brushes Detergents Vaporizers Balloons Sun Glasses Tents Heart Valves Crayons Parachutes Telephones Enamel Pillows Dishes Cameras Anesthetics Artificial Turf Artificial limbs Bandages Dentures Model Cars Folding Doors Hair Curlers Cold cream Movie film Soft Contact lenses Drinking Cups Fan Belts Car Enamel Shaving Cream Ammonia Refrigerators Golf Balls Toothpaste Gasoline

Page 26: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

#3 – Non-Renewable

Sun

Oil

Ancient Sunlight

Page 27: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

300 Million Years of sunlight

150 years

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Laws of Energy

Finite

ALL RESOURCESLaws of Geology

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Hubberts Curve

Peak

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Hubbert’s Curve

Total Region

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Real WorldConcept & Reality

RealityConcept

OilMoney

Exponential Bell

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Money vs Oil

01/02/12

Money

Oil

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Phase 1Paradise Times

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Layers of Concepts

The Money Onion

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Phase # 2Body Collapse

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Concept # 5Stock Market

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Concept # 6Fractional Reserve Banking

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Concept # 7No Gold Standard

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Concept # 8Leveraging

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Concept # 8Leveraging

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Concept # 9Options

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Concept # 10Derivatives

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Concept # 10Derivatives

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Concept # 11Glass Steagel Act

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Concept # 12Complex Financial Instruments

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The Money OnionConcept Withers

Unbelievable GrowthCrazy Risk

The Growth Trap

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Peak OilConcept Withers

1,000 TRILLION

100 TRILLION

50 TRILLION

14 TRILLION

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March, 2008

KABOOM!

Page 49: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

Financial Collapse

50 Trillion dollars

2005

Peak Oil

Page 50: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

What do Alternative Energies need to achieve?

Run the Modern Industrial World the way it runs now!

WHILE FIGHTING ENERGY DESCENT!

Page 51: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

Why Alternative Energies?

To mitigateClimate Change?

Page 52: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

Challenge to Alternatives

Maintain Perpetual Exponential Growth of Modern Industrial

World.

Follow Rules of Energetics

Page 53: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

RULE #1

Rules of Energetics

Net Energy (ERoEI)

The Net Energy Gained has to besuitably high for the alternative tobe viable.

Page 54: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

RULE #2

Oil Replaceability

Redesign the Modern Industrial World to run on Electricity.Entails a huge embedded energy cost.

Rules of Energetics

Page 55: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

RULE #3

Oil Dependency

The alternative must not be too dependent on oil and its price.

Rules of Energetics

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RULE #4

Energy Density

The energy density must compare with oil.

Rules of Energetics

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RULE #5

Energy Density

The energy density must compare with oil.

Rules of Energetics

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RULE #6

Scalability

The alternative has to be scalable to replace oil.

Rules of Energetics

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RULE #7

Oil Byproducts

The alternative must give the byproducts of oil that are crucial to building, running & maintaining the Modern Industrial World

Rules of Energetics

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All Alternative Energies are….

ENERGY CONVERTERS

The Energetics Truth

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Alternative Energies are useful ONLY if we….

• Accept Energy Descent

The Economic/Industrial Truth

• Do honest Energy Accounting

Page 62: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

It is not merely Alternative Energies that we are

seeking…

It is and Alternative World

The Whole Truth

Page 63: Something that can effectively replace something else. ‘Alternative’ In Quantity And in Quality

EnergeticsA Reality Check

OfAlternative Energies