Some Thoughts on High-skilled Migration and Immigration Reform

Engineering Deans Institute

New York CityApril 16, 2013

Panel Discussion

Mark Regets

National Science Foundation, Arlingtonand Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), Bonn

(Affiliations for biographical purposes only)markregets@scipolicy.com 703-292-7813

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 -

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

400,000,000

Rest of World

USA

Number of Postsecondary (Tertiary) degree holders: 1950-2010

Derived from Barro-Lee estimates of education attainment, 9/4/2011 data release

United States has had slower growth in degrees in the natural sciences and engineering relative to population:(Comparison of First Natural S&E University Degrees issued to 20-24 year old population)

ChinaBelgium

United StatesAustria

SwitzerlandGreece

NorwayGermany

IrelandNetherlands

JapanSpain

DenmarkFrance

PortugalUnited Kingdom

SingaporeItaly

SwedenSouth Korea

FinlandTaiwan

0 5 10 15 20 25

1975 1990

2005

Ratio of S&E first university diplomas granted to 1/5 population aged 20-24

Do U.S. Immigration and Visa Policies Reflect the Way R&D is Now Done?

5

Changes in how S&T is done:

• More S&T activity of all types is done across borders– Teams and collaborations physically

located in multiple countries– From basic research to product

development to technical services• Global capacity for S&T growing rapidly

in most part of the world.• S&T capacity much less centralized,

U.S. recently about 1/3 of world R&D

6

Multiple Node Knowledge Network

• Increased and more complex flows of students, workers, and finances

• Increased regional S&T collaboration and links between regions

• Global talent search, not necessarily for an “Einstein”

• Global education and careers

Do we already have too many high-skill worker?

In every decade, employment in science and engineering occupations has grown faster than the workforce as a whole

1960–70 1970–80 1980–90 1990–2000 2000–07

5.6%

3.3%

4.8%

3.6%

2.2%1.8%

2.4%

1.8%

1.1%1.4%

Average annual growth rate of employment

Workforce in S&E occupations Workforce ≥18 years old

Employment has also been growing faster than degree production (until recently)

1970–80 1980–90 1990–2000 2000–07

3.3%

4.8%

3.6%

2.2%1.7%

1.2%1.7%

2.2%

Average annual growth rate of employment in S&E occu-pations and in S&E bachelor's degree production

S&E occupations S&E Bachelors

Some Parts of the STEM labor market have chronic issues:

Older IT workers without EE or CS degrees face rehire problems if laid off.

Young biomedical Ph.D.s headed for academic research face many years before directing their own research.

Some fields (i.e. geology, aerospace eng.) are subject to boom or bust because of the concentration of employment in particular industries.

• Restrictions on labor supply may not be a very effective way to ease the pain on any of these issues

.

Family-based and skill-based immigration are not opposites

Most important reason given by immigrant scientists and engineers for their decision to come to the United States: 2003

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

Family-relatedreasons

Educationalopportunities

Job or economicopportunities

Scientific orprofessionalinfrastructure

Other

Perc

ent

Source:Nirmala Kannankutty and Joan Burrelli, Why Did They Come to the United States? A Profile of Immigrant Scientists and Engineers, National Science Foundation, 2007

12

S&E graduate degree holders who first entered the U.S. with student visas: Percent with U.S. citizenship by

years since entry to U.S. and years since degree (2003)

010

20

30

40

5060

70

80

90

100

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35+Years since U.S. entry or Years since degree

Perc

ent w

ith U

.S. C

itize

nshi

p

Master's: By years in U.S.

Master's: By years sincedegreeDoctorate: By years in U.S.

Doctorate: By years sincedegree

Source: NSF/SRS SESTAT (2003)Note: Includes only those resident in the United States in 2003, and does not represent naturalization rates for all foreign students.

Postdoc Issues• Around half of postdocs in the United States have

their PhD from abroad. Most now enter on H-1b visas.

• Many provisions in proposed bill are designed to require paying a premium wage over American, prior efforts to recruit Americans, and other provisions that can cause problems for the use of H-1Bs in normal hiring or recruitment.

BACKUP SLIDES

15

Many U.S. citizen grad students are in departments dependent upon foreign students

SOURCE: NSF/SRS Survey of Graduate Students and Postdocs (GSS) 2006

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009 -

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Skilled laborersIntracompany transfereesEngineersInstructorsResearchersProfessors

Entries into Japan of workers with a type of temporary work visa associated with high skills

Source: Japan Statistical Handbook

United States32%

United Kingdom15%

Germany13%

France11%

Australia8%

Japan3%

Canada2%

Spain2%

18 Other OECD14%

1.4 million in 1998/1999

United States23%

United Kingdom18%

Germany10%

France9%

Australia9%

Canada5%

Japan5%

New Zealand2%

18 Other OECD18%

2.6 million in 2007

Share of foreign students in higher education among 26 reporting OECD countries: 1998 and 2007

ChinaSingapore

BelgiumAustria

GermanyGreece

SwitzerlandSpain

United StatesPortugal

FranceSouth Korea

JapanIreland

United KingdomSwedenNorway

ItalyNetherlands

DenmarkFinlandTaiwan

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

1975 1990

2005

Ratio of first university degrees granted to 1/5 of population aged 20-24

The proportion of population earning degrees has increased almost everywhere, including other developed countries.(First University Degrees issued to 20-24 year old population)