solving the ridl of sustainable bt corn use: stepping off the biotechnology treadmill
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Solving the RIDL of Sustainable Bt Corn Use: Stepping Off the Biotechnology Treadmill. Trends in Corn IPM Research: NCB ESA Symposium Paul D. Mitchell and Zhe Dun Ag & Applied Economics, UW-Madison March 14, 2011 Minneapolis, MN. Overview. Benefits and impacts of Bt corn - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Solving the RIDL of Sustainable Bt Corn Use: Stepping Off the Biotechnology Treadmill
Trends in Corn IPM Research: NCB ESA Symposium
Paul D. Mitchell and Zhe DunAg & Applied Economics, UW-Madison
March 14, 2011 Minneapolis, MN
Overview
Benefits and impacts of Bt corn Biotechnology Treadmill, IRM and the need
for resistance mitigation research Genetic Pest Management Release of Insects carrying a Dominant
Lethal (RIDL) Preliminary exploratory model results
Source: Hutchison et al. (2010)
% Acres Triple Stack Bt Corn in 2009(Based on Biotech Endorsement Crop Insurance)
> 40%
30%-40%
20-30%
10%-20%
< 10%
Source: http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/biotechnology/chapter1.htm
Bt Corn Adoption Rate by State
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Bt C
orn
Adop
tion
Rat
e
ILMNWIIANE
ECB Population Data 1940 to 2009
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
2nd
Gen
r. EC
B la
rvae
/100
pla
nts
WIILMN
ECB Population Data Since 1990
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
2nd
Gen
r. EC
B la
rvae
/100
pla
nts
WIILMN
Bt Corn in the USA $2.5 billion cumulative Bt corn benefit for Bt acres in
MN, WI, IL, IA & NE since 1996 $1.7 billion cumulative Bt corn tech fees paid for Bt
corn in MN, WI, IL, IA & NE since 1996 Widespread planting of Bt corn has suppressed the
European corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis: ECB) population in Midwest $4.3 billion cumulative Bt corn benefit for non-Bt acres in
MN, WI, IL, IA & NE since 1996 63% of Bt benefit to farmers went to non-Bt acres due to
ECB suppression $920 million annual average for farmers (2007-2009),
rising to $1.05 billion once include tech fees
Cumulative Benefits MN, WI, IL
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Cum
ulat
ive
Ben
efit
($ M
illio
n)
Btnon-BtTotal
With Tech Fee, Total Cumulative Benefit about $8.5 Billion in MN, WI, IL, IA, and NE, with Bt and Non-Bt Each about Half
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Cum
ulat
ive
Bene
fits (
$ M
illio
n)
Non-BtBt + TechTotal
Price Effects of Bt corn Bt corn has increased corn supply and so reduced
market price of corn: 10-25% lower corn prices due to Bt corn With a base price $7/bu, means $0.50 to $1.40/bu
%Q Elasticity %P P3% -0.40 -7.5% -0.533% -0.33 -9.1% -0.643% -0.25 -12.0% -0.845% -0.40 -12.5% -0.885% -0.33 -15.2% -1.065% -0.25 -20.0% -1.40
Higher corn prices means more corn acres (less CRP, pasture and cereals)
Working on broader model for more definitive estimate of price effects
Main Point
Bt corn is popular Bt corn is valuable
Bt corn farmers Seed/Biotech companies Non-Bt corn farmers Consumers Environment
Losing Bt corn more costly than many realize
“Biotechnology Treadmill” and Insect Resistance Management High-dose/Refuge strategy for delaying
insect resistance to Bt crops Successful? Compare Bt crops to RR crops
Recent changes to lower refuge amounts, seed mixtures and pyramided traits Has IRM become riskier? Onstad et al. (2011)
Can only avert the inevitable for so long IRM goal has always been to delay
resistance, not to prevent resistance IRM only slows speed of the biotechnology
treadmill – it does not stop the treadmill
Insect Resistance to Bt Toxin Populations with confirmed field resistance
to Bt toxin in a Bt crop1. Fall Armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) in
Puerto Rico to Cry1F in Bt corn2. Stem Borer (Busseola fusca) in South Africa
to Cry1Ab I Bt corn3. Cotton Bollworm (Helicoverpa zea) in AR/MS
to Cry1Ac in Bt cotton4. Cotton Bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera) in
China to Cry1Ac in Bt cotton More in lab and others in non-GM uses
Resistance Mitigation
Product Registration in US requires remedial action plans once field resistance confirmed
Use of alternative modes (chemical, cultural) that year and in subsequent years
End sales of product in the area Used in Puerto Rico for FAW
Develop “Case-Specific” Mitigation Action Plan Really no details except “potentially including
layering of technologies”
Trends in Corn IPM Research: Resistance Mitigation Research Little research on Resistance Mitigation for
chemical insecticides or for Bt crops Most practices and plans rely on mixing and/or
rotating modes of action and use of synergists Goal is to reduce survival of resistant insects Doesn’t stop the treadmill, just slows it down
More research now is a good idea, to get ready for problems with Bt crops (and other MOA) Cost to register new pesticides quite high and
growing, harder to find new modes of action Larry Buschman’s presentation: Oviposition
deterrence
Trends in Corn IPM Research: Resistance Mitigation Research Which strategies are most effective for
mitigating resistance under what conditions? Which strategies are most economical for
mitigating resistance under what conditions? Are there new strategies that we can use? Is it possible to stop the “biotechnology
treadmill” and have sustainable Bt use? Start addressing these questions, before we
lose some valuable Bt crop technologies
Trends in Corn IPM Research: Genetic Pest Management (Gould 2008) Sterile Insect Technique (SIT): beginning of
genetic methods for managing pests Irradiate males so progeny die as eggs, then
release enough to swamp native male population
SIT successes: screw worm, Medfly, etc. More sophisticated methods explored
theoretically & implemented on small scales Vanderplank and tsetse fly in Tanzania Several explore “underdominance” systems No practical applications of these to SIT
Trends in Corn IPM Research: Genetic Pest Management (Gould 2008) Molecular biology developed new methods: Medea Element: ZZmale x ZMfemale normally
gives pM = 25% allele frequency, but with Medea Element, only ZM survive, so pM ≈ 50%
Link to other genes to drive useful alleles to higher frequencies in population: Focus on insect-vectored diseases: drive
refractory gene into insect population Reduce fitness of pest populations Why not Bt susceptibility?
Trends in Corn IPM Research: RIDL Release of Insects carrying a Dominant Lethal Series of papers associated with Luke Alphey
starting in 2000 in Science RIDL: release homozygous dominant lethal
(LL) into population of wild types (ww) RIDLmales(LL) x Wildfemale(ww)
F1: all Lw so 100% F1 females die F2: Lw x ww so 50% F2 females die F3: Lw x ww so 50% F3 females die
RIDL Graphics (Alphey et al. 2007)
F2: Lw x ww
50% Lw, all females die
50% ww, all females liveF3: Same outcome
F1
Figure 1 in Alphey et al. (2007)
Trends in Corn IPM Research: RIDL
SIT: release males causing fatality of progeny, but does not introgress useful genes
RIDL: Use L alone to manage population, but with smaller release rates than SIT
Alternative: Link desired allele(s) to the L allele and introgress useful genes
Insect vectored disease refractory genes Oxitec (Alphey) transgenic mosquito releases
in Caribbean in Sept 2009 for Dengue Fever Bt toxin susceptibility: JEE 2007, 2009
RIDL for Sustainable Bt Corn Use(Alphey et al. 2007, 2009) Theoretically, use RIDL to get any desired
resistance allele frequency and population Choose refuge % and RIDL release ratio,
based on pest ecology, population dynamics, and genetic parameters
Can step off the “Biotechnology Treadmill” No economics in the analysis
Preliminary Exploratory Model
Building Alphey et al. model to replicate results and then do new work
Basic model working Bt and non-Bt patches, random mating, relative
fitness, dominance, etc. Start at 10% resistance allele frequency (i.e.,
field resistance observed) Only releasing ss adults, not LLss adults Not true RIDL yet, just mass release
“Mass Released Refuge”
0% refuge
10% refuge
Preliminary Economic Analysis
Revenue minus costs from Bt and non-Bt crop and for releasing RIDL insects
Revenue = PY[b(1 – b) + (1 – b)(1 – n)] Cost = K + bT + Cridl(dN) P = price, Y = pest free yield, b = % Bt = % yield loss, Subscript b for Bt, n for non
Bt, depends on pest population on each K = cost, T = tech fee Cd(dN) = cost per RIDL insect (convex)
Preliminary Results Conceptually, can use mass release for sustainable
management of pest population and resistance Pulsed release of ss/RIDL insects
Initially knock down resistance, then use RIDL to manage population
Threshold (when) and how many to release depend on biological and economic parameters
Lower optimal release ratio than for SIT Pulsing comparable to Onstad’s presentation idea of
using Bt corn every 2 or 3 years instead of continuously Many practical and technical issues to address
Some of the Questions to Address What is the cost to raise enough ECB or
CRW for mass release? What is cost to engineer RIDL ECB/CRW? How do we mass release ECB/CRW?
Aerially? On the ground? Spacing? What are the legal, social, ethical issues for
releasing ss CRW/ECB? What about transgenic RIDL adults?
Is RIDL more economical for managing resistance mitigation?
Questions and Comments
Paul D. MitchellUW-Madison Ag & Applied EconomicsOffice: (608) 265-6514Cell: (608) 320-1162Email: [email protected]
References Gould, F. 2008. Broadening the application of
evolutionarily based genetic pest management. Evolution 62(2):500-510.
Alphey et al. 2007. Managing Insecticide Resistance by Mass Release of Engineered Insects. J. Econ. Entomol. 100(5):1642-1649.
Alphey et al. 2009. Combining Pest Control and Resistance Management: Synergy of Engineered Insects With Bt Crops. J. Econ. Entomol. 102(2):717-732.
Thomas et al. 2000. Insect population control using a dominant repressible lethal genetic system. Science 287:2474-2476.
GM Mosquito Trial Alarms Opponents, Strains Ties in Gates-Funded Project. Science 330:1030-1031.